> @tlg86 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3. > > https://tinyurl.com/y3lyeqpf > > Labour - 311 > Conservatives - 218 > SNP - 55 > Lib Dems - 22 > Brexit - 21 > Plaid - 4 > Green - 1 > NI - 18
Corbyn still cannot get a majority even with the Tories on 22%!
> @ydoethur said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3. > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y3lyeqpf > > > > Labour - 311 > > Conservatives - 218 > > SNP - 55 > > Lib Dems - 22 > > Brexit - 21 > > Plaid - 4 > > Green - 1 > > NI - 18 > > I wouldn't bother Baxtering those. At such huge changes there is no extant model that would realistically predict the outcome. > > Talking of no model and lack of realism, do we have any progress on Vanilla yet?
No, but the point is Corbyn can see a chance to win despite not being especially popular.
Might be wrong but this looks to be only the second poll since the demise of the Liberals to have Labour and the Conservatives on 50% or less of the vote. The first being when the Alliance briefly polled over 50% back in 1981.
> > Wales will never be independent, it has not got North Sea oil unlike Scotland and voted Leave just like England. Plaid has also never come top in any Welsh election unlike the SNP.
>
> It is interesting to hear your pontifications on Wales from deepest Essex.
>
> If Slovenia -- a country that has much less history as an independent stat than either Wales or Scotland -- can be independent, then so can Wales and Scotland.
>
Slovenia is richer per head than Wales, certainly in PPP terms and has a more highly educated population
So you agree and prove the point , Wales is poor due to mismanagement and bad policies from England. Exactly the same as Scotland.
> @malcolmg said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help. > > > > > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one. > > > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century? > > > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no? > > > > It was Glamorgan. > > > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales? > > > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth. > > > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor. > > 100% Correct
Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
No, but the point is Corbyn can see a chance to win despite not being especially popular.
Corbyn wouldn't know a political strategy if it ran up and bit him. The way Labour are plunging there's a non-trivial chance they could finish forth, and finally burst the bubble of those Fascist nutters like Bastani who support him.
> @malcolmg said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > > > > > Wales will never be independent, it has not got North Sea oil unlike Scotland and voted Leave just like England. Plaid has also never come top in any Welsh election unlike the SNP. > > > > > > It is interesting to hear your pontifications on Wales from deepest Essex. > > > > > > If Slovenia -- a country that has much less history as an independent stat than either Wales or Scotland -- can be independent, then so can Wales and Scotland. > > > > > > > Slovenia is richer per head than Wales, certainly in PPP terms and has a more highly educated population > > So you agree and prove the point , Wales is poor due to mismanagement and bad policies from England. Exactly the same as Scotland. Labour are in power in Cardiff, the SNP are in power in Scotland. The UK economy has low unemployment and rising wages under a Tory government
> @brokenwheel said: > Might be wrong, but this looks to be only the second poll since the demise of the Liberals to have Labour and the Conservatives on 50% or less of the vote. The first being when the Alliance briefly polled over 50% back in 1981.
Bit of a contrast between Farage and Roy Jenkins though except both like a good red wine
Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
Wales is also heavily skewed by the relative wealth of Cardiff. A comparison of Anglesey to Northumberland would not I think show to Wales' advantage.
> @malcolmg said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > > > > > Wales will never be independent, it has not got North Sea oil unlike Scotland and voted Leave just like England. Plaid has also never come top in any Welsh election unlike the SNP. > > > > > > It is interesting to hear your pontifications on Wales from deepest Essex. > > > > > > If Slovenia -- a country that has much less history as an independent stat than either Wales or Scotland -- can be independent, then so can Wales and Scotland. > > > > > > > Slovenia is richer per head than Wales, certainly in PPP terms and has a more highly educated population > > So you agree and prove the point , Wales is poor due to mismanagement and bad policies from England. Exactly the same as Scotland.
Nothing to do with England here in Wales, Malc
Just a dreadful labour government ever since devolution 20 years ago
There will be a time when they are gone, especially under the Corbynista Drakeford
> @HYUFD said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > > > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help. > > > > > > > > > > > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one. > > > > > > > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century? > > > > > > > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no? > > > > > > > > It was Glamorgan. > > > > > > > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales? > > > > > > > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth. > > > > > > > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor. > > > > 100% Correct > > Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy.
These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
> @malcolmg said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > > > > That's ridiculous: Scotland hasn't been a country since the Act of Union in 1707. > > > > Quite correct. The title should clearly be "Countries and provinces". > > > > *runs away* > > You better be running very fast , I have a hot poker looking for an orifice coming your way!
> @Jonathan said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent > > > > > > > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them. > > > > > > When were the Tories last on 22% for a Westminster poll? > > > > And when were labour last on 28% > > > > The EU poll is now no deal brexit v remain and neither main party has an answer > > Labour were somewhere near there in the run up to 2017 I think. For the Tories, I can’t quite recall them getting that low even in the 90s.
> > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
> >
> >
> >
> > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
> >
> >
> >
> > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
> >
> >
> >
> > It was Glamorgan.
> >
> >
> >
> > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
> >
> >
> >
> > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
> >
> >
> >
> > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
> >
> > 100% Correct
>
> Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy.
These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
> > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
>
>
>
>
>
> Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
>
>
>
> Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
>
>
>
> Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
>
>
>
> It was Glamorgan.
>
>
>
> What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
>
>
>
> English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
>
>
>
> Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
>
> 100% Correct
Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
Yes they are so incompetent they even wreck parts of their own country, only looking after London and south east, they truly are stupid.
> > > Wales will never be independent, it has not got North Sea oil unlike Scotland and voted Leave just like England. Plaid has also never come top in any Welsh election unlike the SNP.
>
> >
>
> > It is interesting to hear your pontifications on Wales from deepest Essex.
>
> >
>
> > If Slovenia -- a country that has much less history as an independent stat than either Wales or Scotland -- can be independent, then so can Wales and Scotland.
>
> >
>
>
>
> Slovenia is richer per head than Wales, certainly in PPP terms and has a more highly educated population
>
> So you agree and prove the point , Wales is poor due to mismanagement and bad policies from England. Exactly the same as Scotland.
Labour are in power in Cardiff, the SNP are in power in Scotland. The UK economy has low unemployment and rising wages under a Tory government
All power is in Westminster, there are no powers other than road signs in Wlaes or Scotland.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority > > A referendum is no means certain for remain to win.
> Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
It was Glamorgan.
What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
100% Correct
They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level of support. They don't know their own country and their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? I would not dream of lecturing the Scots on the nature of their country, though I do have my own view of it. Is it ok to do that to the Welsh?
> > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
> >
> >
> >
> > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
> >
> >
> >
> > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
> >
> >
> >
> > It was Glamorgan.
> >
> >
> >
> > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
> >
> >
> >
> > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
> >
> >
> >
> > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
> >
> > 100% Correct
>
> Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy.
These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
Imported coal was cheaper.
Depends how you look at it , if you add all the benefits they had to pay out , lost taxes , impact on other businesses supporting it then I bet it was massively more expensive. It was pure malice.
> @justin124 said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority > > > > A referendum is no means certain for remain to win. > > Quite a few Tories would vote Remain.
> @malcolmg said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Wales will never be independent, it has not got North Sea oil unlike Scotland and voted Leave just like England. Plaid has also never come top in any Welsh election unlike the SNP. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It is interesting to hear your pontifications on Wales from deepest Essex. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If Slovenia -- a country that has much less history as an independent stat than either Wales or Scotland -- can be independent, then so can Wales and Scotland. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Slovenia is richer per head than Wales, certainly in PPP terms and has a more highly educated population > > > > > > So you agree and prove the point , Wales is poor due to mismanagement and bad policies from England. Exactly the same as Scotland. > > Labour are in power in Cardiff, the SNP are in power in Scotland. The UK economy has low unemployment and rising wages under a Tory government > > All power is in Westminster, there are no powers other than road signs in Wlaes or Scotland.
Most domestic policy in Wales and Scotland is decided in Cardiff Bay and Holyrood
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Streeter said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long. > > > > > > > > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive. > > > > > > > > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members > > > > > > > > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults > > > > > > > > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct. > > > > > > > > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all > > > > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out? > > > > Hilarious. > > You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this
You are certainly not being consistent on this - though you are entitled to change your mind as to the suitability of such a vile human being as Boris for the position of PM.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one. > > > > > > > > > > > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century? > > > > > > > > > > > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no? > > > > > > > > > > > > It was Glamorgan. > > > > > > > > > > > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales? > > > > > > > > > > > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth. > > > > > > > > > > > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor. > > > > > > 100% Correct > > > > Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source > > British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy. > > These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
More coal mines closed under Wilson than Thatcher, nuclear energy and renewables are the future globally not coal
> @justin124 said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Streeter said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long. > > > > > > > > > > > > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive. > > > > > > > > > > > > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members > > > > > > > > > > > > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults > > > > > > > > > > > > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct. > > > > > > > > > > > > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all > > > > > > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out? > > > > > > Hilarious. > > > > You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this > > You are certainly not being consistent on this - though you are entitled to change your mind as to the suitability of such a vile human being as Boris for the position of PM.
He is not in the same vile league as Corbyn to be fair
The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance.
Now they will flit to Boris.
PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
> @kle4 said: " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? "
-----
How do we know?
Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond.
And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders.
Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar.
Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite.
Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks.
> @Gardenwalker said: > The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance. > > Now they will flit to Boris. > > PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that. > > Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum. > > Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
I think May's Deal will scrape through in June after Labour MPs from Leave seats panic about losing their seats, we then enter the transition period and Boris can renegotiate the future relationship and win back Leavers from the Brexit Party
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @Streeter said: > > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > > > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all > > > > > > > > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out? > > > > > > > > Hilarious. > > > > > > You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this > > > > You are certainly not being consistent on this - though you are entitled to change your mind as to the suitability of such a vile human being as Boris for the position of PM. > > He is not in the same vile league as Corbyn to be fair
A Boris v Corbyn general election will be fun then
> @Gardenwalker said: > The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance. > > Now they will flit to Boris. > > PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that. > > Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum. > > Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
They beat the SNP and trounced labour in last weeks local election in Haddington and Lammermuir
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @kle4 said: > " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? " > > ----- > > How do we know? > > Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond. > > And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders. > > Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar. > > Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite. > > Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks.
Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 on the list and 17 seats in total in Wales under Dafydd Wigley, their most charismatic leader to date but Labour still won most seats in Wales, 28, even under the deathly dull Alun Michael
> Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
It was Glamorgan.
What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
100% Correct
They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level of support. They don't know their own country and their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? I would not dream of lecturing the Scots on the nature of their country, though I do have my own view of it. Is it ok to do that to the Welsh?
Despite Scottish people voting for it they are denying Scotland a referendum, that is colonialism. We are under the yoke.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one. > > > > > > > > > > > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century? > > > > > > > > > > > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no? > > > > > > > > > > > > It was Glamorgan. > > > > > > > > > > > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales? > > > > > > > > > > > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth. > > > > > > > > > > > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor. > > > > > > 100% Correct > > > > Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source > > British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy. > > These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
Some of the former coalfields have prospered (and vote Conservative - or perhaps Brexit Party now).
But it does demonstrate that Green policies come with a price attached to them.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @Streeter said: > > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > > > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all > > > > > > > > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out? > > > > > > > > Hilarious. > > > > > > You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this > > > > You are certainly not being consistent on this - though you are entitled to change your mind as to the suitability of such a vile human being as Boris for the position of PM. > > He is not in the same vile league as Corbyn to be fair
I suspect that most objective observers will disagree - including many Tories.
> @HYUFD said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > @kle4 said: > > " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? " > > > > ----- > > > > How do we know? > > > > Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond. > > > > And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders. > > > > Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar. > > > > Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite. > > > > Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks. > > Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 on the list and 17 seats in total in Wales under Dafydd Wigley, their most charismatic leader to date but Labour still won most seats even under the deathly dull Alun Michael
I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person
> The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance.
>
> Now they will flit to Boris.
>
> PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
>
> Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
>
> Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
They beat the SNP and trounced labour in last weeks local election in Haddington and Lammermuir
G, come on , they just won one local councilor seat , have you looked at the polls recently for Holyrood and Westminster, oblivion beckons. They are a bunch of no use lying toerags.
" They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? "
-----
How do we know?
Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond.
And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders.
Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar.
Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite.
Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks.
Well we know based on the current situation, it is all we have to go on. But of course you are right that waves always break, and that is probably for the best. Total dominance for such long periods is not generally good in my view, and while for instance I do not support the SNP's main aim, politics is probably stronger for having them, and the challenge they present to people who do wish to preserve the Union for reasons other than apathy.
The genius of the Labour position - the leadership hems and haws, twists and turns with nuanced positioning, but prominent people throughout it are unambiguous, reassuring their voters that they will demand a final say, will campaign to remain, they are for remain unequivocally.
> @malcolmg said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help. > > > > > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one. > > > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century? > > > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no? > > > > It was Glamorgan. > > > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales? > > > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth. > > > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor. > > 100% Correct > > They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level of support. They don't know their own country and their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? I would not dream of lecturing the Scots on the nature of their country, though I do have my own view of it. Is it ok to do that to the Welsh? > > Despite Scottish people voting for it they are denying Scotland a referendum, that is colonialism. We are under the yoke.
Scotland had a referendum in 2014, it voted No to independence.
Most polls show most Scots do not want another independence referendum in the next 5 years
There are only really two areas of economic growth: Cardiff - which is too public-sector heavy; and the North East - which basically functions as an exurb of Liverpool.
As a “country” it is very disconnected. The four or five mini-regions of Wales are hard to get between, which is a brake on all sorts of things, from investment to tourism.
However there is plenty the Welsh administration could be doing if it actually had a coherent theory of growth. The education system, for example, is a disgrace.
The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance.
Now they will flit to Boris.
PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
From the outside it does look like the events of the last few years mean SCON have reached their high water mark.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? " > > > > > > ----- > > > > > > How do we know? > > > > > > Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond. > > > > > > And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders. > > > > > > Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar. > > > > > > Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite. > > > > > > Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks. > > > > Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 on the list and 17 seats in total in Wales under Dafydd Wigley, their most charismatic leader to date but Labour still won most seats even under the deathly dull Alun Michael > > I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person
Maybe but he is still hardly Mr charisma, certainly compared to Rhodri Morgan
> @malcolmg said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance. > > > > > > Now they will flit to Boris. > > > > > > PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that. > > > > > > Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum. > > > > > > Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains. > > > > They beat the SNP and trounced labour in last weeks local election in Haddington and Lammermuir > > G, come on , they just won one local councilor seat , have you looked at the polls recently for Holyrood and Westminster, oblivion beckons. They are a bunch of no use lying toerags.
Ruth, the bastion against the independence hopefuls
Wales and Scotland are poor because they have been under socialist rule for decades - public sector , unionised stagnation.
The only bright spot has been Scotland oil - which won’t survive the SNP “climate crisis” and the Edinburgh financial sector which survives the harsh high tax regime that the Nats have imposed.
> @kle4 said: > The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance. > > Now they will flit to Boris. > > PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that. > > Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum. > > Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains. > > From the outside it does look like the events of the last few years mean SCON have reached their high water mark.
That depends, PM Corbyn reliant on the SNP would see yet more Labour Unionists defect to Davidson
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? " > > > > > > > > ----- > > > > > > > > How do we know? > > > > > > > > Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond. > > > > > > > > And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders. > > > > > > > > Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar. > > > > > > > > Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite. > > > > > > > > Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks. > > > > > > Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 on the list and 17 seats in total in Wales under Dafydd Wigley, their most charismatic leader to date but Labour still won most seats even under the deathly dull Alun Michael > > > > I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person > > Maybe but he is still hardly Mr charisma, certainly compared to Rhodri Morgan
I would not disagree but he is very pleasant to be with
> Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
It was Glamorgan.
What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
100% Correct
They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level of support. They don't know their own country and their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? I would not dream of lecturing the Scots on the nature of their country, though I do have my own view of it. Is it ok to do that to the Welsh?
Despite Scottish people voting for it they are denying Scotland a referendum, that is colonialism. We are under the yoke.
I was referring to the comments on Wales, who for the moment at least seem to be content not to go down the independence route to the same degree as Scotland. If they have the same level of legitimate grievance as many Scots feel so as to be a yoke, it does not as yet seem apparent. It is impossible to deny that whether one likes or agrees with it a great many Scots do feel there is a yoke and telling them, you, there is not is not persuasive. But if there are not signs the welsh are reacting against a yoke, telling them there is one does not also seem particualrly persuasive to me - I presume they know their country better than I do.
> > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
> >
> >
> >
> > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
> >
> >
> >
> > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
> >
> >
> >
> > It was Glamorgan.
> >
> >
> >
> > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
> >
> >
> >
> > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
> >
> >
> >
> > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
> >
> > 100% Correct
>
> Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy.
These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
Imported coal was cheaper.
Depends how you look at it , if you add all the benefits they had to pay out , lost taxes , impact on other businesses supporting it then I bet it was massively more expensive. It was pure malice.
> The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance.
>
> Now they will flit to Boris.
>
> PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
>
> Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
>
> Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
>
> From the outside it does look like the events of the last few years mean SCON have reached their high water mark.
That depends, PM Corbyn reliant on the SNP would see yet more Labour Unionists defect to Davidson
Frankly I am more concerned with the total level of unionists than which party label they wear. A defection to one or the other matters not if the total number of is not enough in the event of another vote. Not that they should need to agree with each other on major policies, it is good they do not since mere agreement on unionism or nationalism should not mean agreement in all things, but the squabbling even on the union issue is not great to see.
Pleasant evening all. May this nation receive that which it deserves. For better and worse.
Wales and Scotland are poor because they have been under socialist rule for decades - public sector , unionised stagnation.
The only bright spot has been Scotland oil - which won’t survive the SNP “climate crisis” and the Edinburgh financial sector which survives the harsh high tax regime that the Nats have imposed.
You have to love the doublethink of a climate emergency and believing all the secret oil will make you rich.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person > > He is the Walking, Talking Embodiment of Labour Nepotism & Cronyism in South Wales. > > Labour only have Sex with themselves in South Wales. > > They have produced an Inbred group of individuals, all related to each other, who provide the Labour AMs and quango members and third sector advisors. >
I am commenting on my social meetings with him outside politics
Sorry Malcolm, you know I am a strong supporter of Scottish Independence but in this case I am not sure you are understanding this. The new acreage is not in Scottish or even British waters. It is in Faroes Island waters under international law. There will be some overlap which is the reason for the joint licencing rounds but we are already developing many of the fields right up against the international border.
He speaks strongly about the failure to deliver Brexit, but I cannot say I find the idea of the two big parties coming to an agreement on a CU to be 'even worse' as he describes it. Perhaps it is indeed bad, but for someone who wants us to leave I am not persuaded that he genuinely thinks, by implication, that remaining and perhaps even accelerating our integration far more, would be worse than leaving but bound in a CU. It just doesn't make sense to me - if he thinks the main parties are both trying to thwart Brexit entirely then their goal is remaining, end of, there would be no need to half arse it with a CU. So as bad as he thinks a CU may well be, the fact the parties might potentially (though I doubt it) agree to leave but with a CU is absolute proof that his main claim that they will do anything to prevent Brexit is untrue.
He speaks strongly about the failure to deliver Brexit, but I cannot say I find the idea of the two big parties coming to an agreement on a CU to be 'even worse' as he describes it. Perhaps it is indeed bad, but for someone who wants us to leave I am not persuaded that he genuinely thinks, by implication, that remaining and perhaps even accelerating our integration far more, would be worse than leaving but bound in a CU. It just doesn't make sense to me - if he thinks the main parties are both trying to thwart Brexit entirely then their goal is remaining, end of, there would be no need to half arse it with a CU. So as bad as he thinks a CU may well be, the fact the parties might potentially (though I doubt it) agree to leave but with a CU is absolute proof that his main claim that they will do anything to prevent Brexit is untrue.
Please don’t take this the wrong way, but trying to read that has made me fancy a pint 🍻
> @HYUFD said: > > @tlg86 said: > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3. > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y3lyeqpf > > > > Labour - 311 > > Conservatives - 218 > > SNP - 55 > > Lib Dems - 22 > > Brexit - 21 > > Plaid - 4 > > Green - 1 > > NI - 18 > > Corbyn still cannot get a majority even with the Tories on 22%! > >
Using the latest polls in the EMA puts the Tories on 28.3% and Lab on 32.2% Brexit on 15.7% LD on 12.9%
Seats: Con 247 LAB 305 LD 21 Brex 1 Green 1 PC 4 SNP 53
Lab 21 short of an overall majority.
NB Electoral Calculus appear to have changed their model and the change benefits the SNP and PC at the expense of Con, Lab and LD.
> @MaxPB said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It was Glamorgan. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor. > > > > > > > > 100% Correct > > > > > > Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source > > > > British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy. > > > > These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks. > > Imported coal was cheaper. > > Depends how you look at it , if you add all the benefits they had to pay out , lost taxes , impact on other businesses supporting it then I bet it was massively more expensive. It was pure malice. > > It was still cheaper.
Do you have any economic analysis to back up that assertion?
Thatcher, Joseph and the rest of them were just a bunch of nasty feckers who were more than happy to destroy communities all over the country.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @isam said: > > > > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage > > What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister? > > Look even more smug than usual?
Can you imagine his grinning face walking into number 10?
> @brokenwheel said: > > @isam said: > > > > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage > > What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister? > > Look even more smug than usual?
Can you imagine his grinning face walking into number 10?
> @williamglenn said: > > @isam said: > > > > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage > > What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister?
I suspect the same kind of thing Trump does, by which I mean he'd pass some policies he feels strongly about (pretty damn tight immigration laws, probably some very harsh law and order laws) but also spend lots of time blaming external forces for why we weren't living in the sun-lit uplands he promised.
To some extent all governments spend time blaming others for things not being perfect, but populists base so much of their political identity on the fact that the establishment are between the country and utopia that they often do it more.
Tbh though, who knows. He's a very effective politician to promote a cause, but who knows if he'd be suited to the challenges of being PM. I suspect he'd struggle to control his Cabinet given he had endless problems with people at UKIP.
> @isam said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > Mwuhuhuhuhuhu > > > > > > https://twitter.com/allisterheath/status/1127277637842481154 > > > > > > And I'm all out of popcorn > > > > > > (although aren't teased polls often squibs of the damp variety?) > > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage
Maybe it shows Theresa May with a great approval rating.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @isam said: > > > > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage > > What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister? > > Look even more smug than usual?
Can you imagine his grinning face walking into number 10?
> @Quincel said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @isam said: > > > > > > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage > > > > What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister? > > I suspect the same kind of thing Trump does, by which I mean he'd pass some policies he feels strongly about (pretty damn tight immigration laws, probably some very harsh law and order laws) but also spend lots of time blaming external forces for why we weren't living in the sun-lit uplands he promised. > > To some extent all governments spend time blaming others for things not being perfect, but populists base so much of their political identity on the fact that the establishment are between the country and utopia that they often do it more. > > Tbh though, who knows. He's a very effective politician to promote a cause, but who knows if he'd be suited to the challenges of being PM. I suspect he'd struggle to control his Cabinet given he had endless problems with people at UKIP.
He is an effective politician in respect of the more intellectually challenged sections of the electorate - ie the Thickos. Just like Trump!
I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
A c.30 point swing away from the european "centre" since 2014 in Italy. The EU has more than Brexit to contend with.
There's huge variation as you'd expect but both the EPP and S&D groups may lose seats but in some countries (Spain, Denmark) the centre-left are doing much better and the centre-right is in retreat. In Germany the Greens are doing well but in Austria they aren't.
A c.30 point swing away from the european "centre" since 2014 in Italy. The EU has more than Brexit to contend with.
There's huge variation as you'd expect but both the EPP and S&D groups may lose seats but in some countries (Spain, Denmark) the centre-left are doing much better and the centre-right is in retreat. In Germany the Greens are doing well but in Austria they aren't.
Yes indeed.
I was looking at the numbers earlier .
The european left will do best in the nations most touched by the sovereign debt crisis/bailouts; the Greens look best in Northern Europe and Scandinavia; the S & D look good in those you've mentioned plus Finland and Latvia but will have miserable nights in Italy, France and Germany.
Macron will do best for ALDE/Renaissance.
Aside from New Democracy in Greece, the EPP look like they are in for a pretty bad set of results. Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic all look bad, as does Germany relative to 2014.
The various reformers, direct democrat and national freedoms groups will prosper most in Italy, the UK, Poland and Slovakia. Denmark appears to be the one place they will go backwards.
The south is still bruised by austerity, the north is pre-occupied with climate change and fiscal prudence, while the east has issues with cultural integration.
Comments
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1127251410431762432?s=20
>
> That doesn't square with the polls showing Remain on about 55%.
Most polls show Remain on about 45% not 55% with the rest split between No Deal and May's Deal
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3.
>
> https://tinyurl.com/y3lyeqpf
>
> Labour - 311
> Conservatives - 218
> SNP - 55
> Lib Dems - 22
> Brexit - 21
> Plaid - 4
> Green - 1
> NI - 18
Corbyn still cannot get a majority even with the Tories on 22%!
A smart move would have been to let Plunkett take 7-1 or something...
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3.
>
>
>
> https://tinyurl.com/y3lyeqpf
>
>
>
> Labour - 311
>
> Conservatives - 218
>
> SNP - 55
>
> Lib Dems - 22
>
> Brexit - 21
>
> Plaid - 4
>
> Green - 1
>
> NI - 18
>
> I wouldn't bother Baxtering those. At such huge changes there is no extant model that would realistically predict the outcome.
>
> Talking of no model and lack of realism, do we have any progress on Vanilla yet?
No, but the point is Corbyn can see a chance to win despite not being especially popular.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
>
>
>
> > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
>
>
>
>
>
> Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
>
>
>
> Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
>
>
>
> Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
>
>
>
> It was Glamorgan.
>
>
>
> What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
>
>
>
> English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
>
>
>
> Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
>
> 100% Correct
Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
>
> >
>
> > > Wales will never be independent, it has not got North Sea oil unlike Scotland and voted Leave just like England. Plaid has also never come top in any Welsh election unlike the SNP.
>
> >
>
> > It is interesting to hear your pontifications on Wales from deepest Essex.
>
> >
>
> > If Slovenia -- a country that has much less history as an independent stat than either Wales or Scotland -- can be independent, then so can Wales and Scotland.
>
> >
>
>
>
> Slovenia is richer per head than Wales, certainly in PPP terms and has a more highly educated population
>
> So you agree and prove the point , Wales is poor due to mismanagement and bad policies from England. Exactly the same as Scotland.
Labour are in power in Cardiff, the SNP are in power in Scotland. The UK economy has low unemployment and rising wages under a Tory government
> Might be wrong, but this looks to be only the second poll since the demise of the Liberals to have Labour and the Conservatives on 50% or less of the vote. The first being when the Alliance briefly polled over 50% back in 1981.
Bit of a contrast between Farage and Roy Jenkins though except both like a good red wine
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
>
> >
>
> > > Wales will never be independent, it has not got North Sea oil unlike Scotland and voted Leave just like England. Plaid has also never come top in any Welsh election unlike the SNP.
>
> >
>
> > It is interesting to hear your pontifications on Wales from deepest Essex.
>
> >
>
> > If Slovenia -- a country that has much less history as an independent stat than either Wales or Scotland -- can be independent, then so can Wales and Scotland.
>
> >
>
>
>
> Slovenia is richer per head than Wales, certainly in PPP terms and has a more highly educated population
>
> So you agree and prove the point , Wales is poor due to mismanagement and bad policies from England. Exactly the same as Scotland.
Nothing to do with England here in Wales, Malc
Just a dreadful labour government ever since devolution 20 years ago
There will be a time when they are gone, especially under the Corbynista Drakeford
> > @malcolmg said:
> > > @Gardenwalker said:
> >
> >
> >
> > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
> >
> >
> >
> > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
> >
> >
> >
> > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
> >
> >
> >
> > It was Glamorgan.
> >
> >
> >
> > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
> >
> >
> >
> > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
> >
> >
> >
> > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
> >
> > 100% Correct
>
> Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy.
These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
> > @rcs1000 said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > That's ridiculous: Scotland hasn't been a country since the Act of Union in 1707.
>
>
>
> Quite correct. The title should clearly be "Countries and provinces".
>
>
>
> *runs away*
>
> You better be running very fast , I have a hot poker looking for an orifice coming your way!
Kinky.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127250315257044993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
> > > >
> > > > That's the more interesting of the two results - clearly Farage will get what people see as a free hit in the Euros, but people don't really care much about them. If he's starting to look like a contender in Westminster then he may start to get defectors. In any case he will need to build an organisation with trusted, loyal candidates - not easy starting from scratch, and he'd be well-advised to pay a consultancy handsomely to do prper due diligence on them.
> > >
> > > When were the Tories last on 22% for a Westminster poll?
> >
> > And when were labour last on 28%
> >
> > The EU poll is now no deal brexit v remain and neither main party has an answer
>
> Labour were somewhere near there in the run up to 2017 I think. For the Tories, I can’t quite recall them getting that low even in the 90s.
Gallup had the Tories on 18.5% in Jan 1995.
> If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority
>
> A referendum is no means certain for remain to win.
Quite a few Tories would vote Remain.
https://twitter.com/arron_banks/status/1127267786072436736?s=21
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > If you add Cons + Brexit + Ukip you are on 49%. Add if a percentage from labour and leave is looking at the majority
> >
> > A referendum is no means certain for remain to win.
>
> Quite a few Tories would vote Remain.
Not many in this climate
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > > @YBarddCwsc said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Wales will never be independent, it has not got North Sea oil unlike Scotland and voted Leave just like England. Plaid has also never come top in any Welsh election unlike the SNP.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > It is interesting to hear your pontifications on Wales from deepest Essex.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > If Slovenia -- a country that has much less history as an independent stat than either Wales or Scotland -- can be independent, then so can Wales and Scotland.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Slovenia is richer per head than Wales, certainly in PPP terms and has a more highly educated population
>
> >
>
> > So you agree and prove the point , Wales is poor due to mismanagement and bad policies from England. Exactly the same as Scotland.
>
> Labour are in power in Cardiff, the SNP are in power in Scotland. The UK economy has low unemployment and rising wages under a Tory government
>
> All power is in Westminster, there are no powers other than road signs in Wlaes or Scotland.
Most domestic policy in Wales and Scotland is decided in Cardiff Bay and Holyrood
> > @Streeter said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> >
> > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.
> >
> >
> >
> > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.
> >
> >
> >
> > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members
> >
> >
> >
> > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults
> >
> >
> >
> > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.
> >
> >
> >
> > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all
> >
> > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
> >
> > Hilarious.
>
> You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this
You are certainly not being consistent on this - though you are entitled to change your mind as to the suitability of such a vile human being as Boris for the position of PM.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > It was Glamorgan.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
> > >
> > > 100% Correct
> >
> > Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
>
> British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy.
>
> These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
More coal mines closed under Wilson than Thatcher, nuclear energy and renewables are the future globally not coal
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Streeter said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > >
> > > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all
> > >
> > > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
> > >
> > > Hilarious.
> >
> > You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this
>
> You are certainly not being consistent on this - though you are entitled to change your mind as to the suitability of such a vile human being as Boris for the position of PM.
He is not in the same vile league as Corbyn to be fair
Now they will flit to Boris.
PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
" They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? "
-----
How do we know?
Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond.
And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders.
Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar.
Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite.
Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks.
> The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance.
>
> Now they will flit to Boris.
>
> PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
>
> Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
>
> Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
I think May's Deal will scrape through in June after Labour MPs from Leave seats panic about losing their seats, we then enter the transition period and Boris can renegotiate the future relationship and win back Leavers from the Brexit Party
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Streeter said:
> > > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > >
> > > > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all
> > > >
> > > > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
> > > >
> > > > Hilarious.
> > >
> > > You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this
> >
> > You are certainly not being consistent on this - though you are entitled to change your mind as to the suitability of such a vile human being as Boris for the position of PM.
>
> He is not in the same vile league as Corbyn to be fair
A Boris v Corbyn general election will be fun then
> The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance.
>
> Now they will flit to Boris.
>
> PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
>
> Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
>
> Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
They beat the SNP and trounced labour in last weeks local election in Haddington and Lammermuir
> > @kle4 said:
> " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? "
>
> -----
>
> How do we know?
>
> Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond.
>
> And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders.
>
> Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar.
>
> Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite.
>
> Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks.
Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 on the list and 17 seats in total in Wales under Dafydd Wigley, their most charismatic leader to date but Labour still won most seats in Wales, 28, even under the deathly dull Alun Michael
https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/highlights/18103/breaking-new-licensing-round-west-of-scotland-to-open-up-supermassive-oil-fields-where-100-years-of-oil-predicted/?fbclid=IwAR3d2bBwLDuWe8wMlXoxaVf8uRKLSiwVlzju87_wHk3xSkDbme6nAI5gHXo#.XNboVx4j35o.twitter
https://twitter.com/benpbradshaw/status/1127217883388497920?s=21
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > It was Glamorgan.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
> > >
> > > 100% Correct
> >
> > Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
>
> British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy.
>
> These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
Some of the former coalfields have prospered (and vote Conservative - or perhaps Brexit Party now).
But it does demonstrate that Green policies come with a price attached to them.
> Surprise Surprise, Tories and their lying chums told us there was no oil left , morons were taken in ............reality
> https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/highlights/18103/breaking-new-licensing-round-west-of-scotland-to-open-up-supermassive-oil-fields-where-100-years-of-oil-predicted/?fbclid=IwAR3d2bBwLDuWe8wMlXoxaVf8uRKLSiwVlzju87_wHk3xSkDbme6nAI5gHXo#.XNboVx4j35o.twitter
Yoink.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Streeter said:
> > > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > >
> > > > > Those are some remarkable numbers. If the Lib Dems pull a few% off Labour, the Brexit Party may be leading before long.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I have been saying for days TM needs to go and if these results reflect the final votes in the EU she cannot survive.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I want an early (June) leadership election conducted in a proper manner with as many candidates as possible going through televised hustings and the final two going to the members
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > It was interesting how Peter Oborne in todays mail has changed his mind and now thinks Boris is likely the best candidate, notwithstanding all his faults
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > If Boris goes through the process and wins I believe the party have to come together to take on the real danger of Corbyn and take a tougher line with the EU. In these circumstances i would support Boris despite my earlier antagonism and congratulate Hyufd on seemingly calling this correct.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > However, I have voted consrvstive in the EU election as I am not prepared to support Farage at all
> > > >
> > > > You’re all over the place man. What happened to Boris’ fuck business gaffe and your relations losing their jobs when Airbus pulls out?
> > > >
> > > > Hilarious.
> > >
> > > You do not seem to realise that as a member I will accept the will of the party. I would never support Farage or the equally unacceptable Corbyn and I expect my party to fight their way through this
> >
> > You are certainly not being consistent on this - though you are entitled to change your mind as to the suitability of such a vile human being as Boris for the position of PM.
>
> He is not in the same vile league as Corbyn to be fair
I suspect that most objective observers will disagree - including many Tories.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? "
> >
> > -----
> >
> > How do we know?
> >
> > Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond.
> >
> > And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders.
> >
> > Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar.
> >
> > Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite.
> >
> > Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks.
>
> Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 on the list and 17 seats in total in Wales under Dafydd Wigley, their most charismatic leader to date but Labour still won most seats even under the deathly dull Alun Michael
I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person
>
> Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 in Wales but Labour still won most seats even under the deathly dull Alun Michael
And what did Plaid do ?
They deposed the leader that got them 30 per cent.
A palace coup by Dafydd Elis-Thomas (now a member of the Labour government) and Cynog Dafis stabbed the most successful leader Plaid Cymru ever had.
> Lying b’stards..
>
> https://twitter.com/benpbradshaw/status/1127217883388497920
That must contravene electoral law
> > @Gardenwalker said:
>
>
>
> > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
>
>
>
>
>
> Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
>
>
>
> Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
>
>
>
> Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
>
>
>
> It was Glamorgan.
>
>
>
> What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
>
>
>
> English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
>
>
>
> Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
>
> 100% Correct
>
> They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level of support. They don't know their own country and their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? I would not dream of lecturing the Scots on the nature of their country, though I do have my own view of it. Is it ok to do that to the Welsh?
>
> Despite Scottish people voting for it they are denying Scotland a referendum, that is colonialism. We are under the yoke.
Scotland had a referendum in 2014, it voted No to independence.
Most polls show most Scots do not want another independence referendum in the next 5 years
There are only really two areas of economic growth: Cardiff - which is too public-sector heavy; and the North East - which basically functions as an exurb of Liverpool.
As a “country” it is very disconnected. The four or five mini-regions of Wales are hard to get between, which is a brake on all sorts of things, from investment to tourism.
However there is plenty the Welsh administration could be doing if it actually had a coherent theory of growth. The education system, for example, is a disgrace.
Mays problem all along was her overcompensating and appeasing the ERG before realizing she had made a deep hole for herself .
Let a Brexiter take charge and own it , then when it goes tits up we won’t have to hear the constant cries of she never believed in it.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > > " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? "
> > >
> > > -----
> > >
> > > How do we know?
> > >
> > > Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond.
> > >
> > > And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders.
> > >
> > > Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar.
> > >
> > > Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite.
> > >
> > > Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks.
> >
> > Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 on the list and 17 seats in total in Wales under Dafydd Wigley, their most charismatic leader to date but Labour still won most seats even under the deathly dull Alun Michael
>
> I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person
Maybe but he is still hardly Mr charisma, certainly compared to Rhodri Morgan
> > @Gardenwalker said:
>
> > The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance.
>
> >
>
> > Now they will flit to Boris.
>
> >
>
> > PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
>
> >
>
> > Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
>
> >
>
> > Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
>
>
>
> They beat the SNP and trounced labour in last weeks local election in Haddington and Lammermuir
>
> G, come on , they just won one local councilor seat , have you looked at the polls recently for Holyrood and Westminster, oblivion beckons. They are a bunch of no use lying toerags.
Ruth, the bastion against the independence hopefuls
The only bright spot has been Scotland oil - which won’t survive the SNP “climate crisis” and the Edinburgh financial sector which survives the harsh high tax regime that the Nats have imposed.
> The Tories should have deposed May when they had a chance.
>
> Now they will flit to Boris.
>
> PM Boris will likely cut an almost identical “deal” to May’s but will call it something different. Who knows, he may even allow another referendum to get the deal through Parliament. I think he alone has the leeway to do that.
>
> Nevertheless, I think the Tories are mortally wounded. Next election, Labour minority government with SNP support in exchange for another referendum.
>
> Ruth should disaffiliate the Scots Tories from the national party if she wants to hold SNP gains.
>
> From the outside it does look like the events of the last few years mean SCON have reached their high water mark.
That depends, PM Corbyn reliant on the SNP would see yet more Labour Unionists defect to Davidson
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > " They do not seem to agree given their SNP equivalent is far from having the same level fo support. They don't know their own minds but you do? Is that not what people in Scotland get so annoyed at English people doing to them? "
> > > >
> > > > -----
> > > >
> > > > How do we know?
> > > >
> > > > Plaid Cymru have not yet found a leader as charismatic as Sturgeon or Salmond.
> > > >
> > > > And before Drakeford, Welsh Labour had a canny touch for choosing good leaders.
> > > >
> > > > Both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones had a populist manner and were excellent media performers. Remember, Scottish Labour had the Midas Touch in Reverse after Donald Dewar.
> > > >
> > > > Rhode and Carwyn were not much good at making Wales prosperous, but they were always ready with a smile and a telling media soundbite.
> > > >
> > > > Welsh Labour have been surfing the wave for a longtime. But the wave always breaks.
> > >
> > > Plaid actually got 30% in 1999 on the list and 17 seats in total in Wales under Dafydd Wigley, their most charismatic leader to date but Labour still won most seats even under the deathly dull Alun Michael
> >
> > I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person
>
> Maybe but he is still hardly Mr charisma, certainly compared to Rhodri Morgan
I would not disagree but he is very pleasant to be with
https://twitter.com/samwhitetky/status/1127275879585861633?s=21
Pleasant evening all. May this nation receive that which it deserves. For better and worse.
A hotel spokesman said there were no guests and few staff due to Ramadan."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48238759
>
> I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person
He is the Walking, Talking Embodiment of Labour Nepotism & Cronyism in South Wales.
Labour only have Sex with themselves in South Wales.
They have produced an Inbred group of individuals, all related to each other, who provide the Labour AMs and quango members and third sector advisors.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > I know Alun Michael and he is a really nice person
>
> He is the Walking, Talking Embodiment of Labour Nepotism & Cronyism in South Wales.
>
> Labour only have Sex with themselves in South Wales.
>
> They have produced an Inbred group of individuals, all related to each other, who provide the Labour AMs and quango members and third sector advisors.
>
I am commenting on my social meetings with him outside politics
https://twitter.com/allisterheath/status/1127277637842481154?s=21
> Surprise Surprise, Tories and their lying chums told us there was no oil left , morons were taken in ............reality
> https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/highlights/18103/breaking-new-licensing-round-west-of-scotland-to-open-up-supermassive-oil-fields-where-100-years-of-oil-predicted/?fbclid=IwAR3d2bBwLDuWe8wMlXoxaVf8uRKLSiwVlzju87_wHk3xSkDbme6nAI5gHXo#.XNboVx4j35o.twitter
Sorry Malcolm, you know I am a strong supporter of Scottish Independence but in this case I am not sure you are understanding this. The new acreage is not in Scottish or even British waters. It is in Faroes Island waters under international law. There will be some overlap which is the reason for the joint licencing rounds but we are already developing many of the fields right up against the international border.
> Mwuhuhuhuhuhu
>
> https://twitter.com/allisterheath/status/1127277637842481154
And I'm all out of popcorn
(although aren't teased polls often squibs of the damp variety?)
> Mwuhuhuhuhuhu
>
> https://twitter.com/allisterheath/status/1127277637842481154
How about
Cons 0% Labour 0% Brexit party 75 % Lib Dems 15% Rest 10%
This is the Telegraph remember
> > @tlg86 said:
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > Corbyn must be hedging his bets on believing that it is more worthwhile to cling to relatively narrow wins in the Midlands and North, than it is to have huge piles of worthless extra votes in Dulwich, Hornsey and the remainder of London travel zones 1-3.
> >
> > https://tinyurl.com/y3lyeqpf
> >
> > Labour - 311
> > Conservatives - 218
> > SNP - 55
> > Lib Dems - 22
> > Brexit - 21
> > Plaid - 4
> > Green - 1
> > NI - 18
>
> Corbyn still cannot get a majority even with the Tories on 22%!
>
>
Using the latest polls in the EMA puts the Tories on 28.3% and Lab on 32.2% Brexit on 15.7% LD on 12.9%
Seats:
Con 247
LAB 305
LD 21
Brex 1
Green 1
PC 4
SNP 53
Lab 21 short of an overall majority.
NB Electoral Calculus appear to have changed their model and the change benefits the SNP and PC at the expense of Con, Lab and LD.
>
> If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage
What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister?
> Evening PB. Something happening?
I've been too mesmerised by the arrow to notice.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @malcolmg said:
>
> > > > @Gardenwalker said:
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > Welsh poverty is a problem the Welsh themselves don’t appear able to >recognise or deal with. Whining about flat whites from a dung hill in the valleys >is not going to help.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Ahh, the Cymrophobe returns, muttering about Welsh dung hills in the valleys. A nasty racist trope, if ever there was one.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Which Uk county was the richest in the nineteenth century?
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Surrey, no? Middlesex, no?
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > It was Glamorgan.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > What happened? What happened to all the mineral wealth of South Wales?
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > English colonialists took it. Much like what is happening now to Scotland's oil wealth.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Wales is a colonial country run for the benefit of the English. That is why it is poor.
>
> > >
>
> > > 100% Correct
>
> >
>
> > Yet Wales is still richer than the North East of England, the problem is both got their riches mainly from coal which is in decline as an energy source
>
>
>
> British coal was replaced by imported coal. Not by alternative sources of energy.
>
>
>
> These regions were wilfully destroyed economically by your party, and have never recovered. Thanks.
>
> Imported coal was cheaper.
>
> Depends how you look at it , if you add all the benefits they had to pay out , lost taxes , impact on other businesses supporting it then I bet it was massively more expensive. It was pure malice.
>
> It was still cheaper.
Do you have any economic analysis to back up that assertion?
Thatcher, Joseph and the rest of them were just a bunch of nasty feckers who were more than happy to destroy communities all over the country.
> > @isam said:
> >
> > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage
>
> What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister?
>
> Look even more smug than usual?
Can you imagine his grinning face walking into number 10?
> > @isam said:
> >
> > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage
>
> What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister?
I suspect the same kind of thing Trump does, by which I mean he'd pass some policies he feels strongly about (pretty damn tight immigration laws, probably some very harsh law and order laws) but also spend lots of time blaming external forces for why we weren't living in the sun-lit uplands he promised.
To some extent all governments spend time blaming others for things not being perfect, but populists base so much of their political identity on the fact that the establishment are between the country and utopia that they often do it more.
Tbh though, who knows. He's a very effective politician to promote a cause, but who knows if he'd be suited to the challenges of being PM. I suspect he'd struggle to control his Cabinet given he had endless problems with people at UKIP.
> > @TGOHF said:
>
> > Mwuhuhuhuhuhu
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/allisterheath/status/1127277637842481154
>
>
>
>
>
> And I'm all out of popcorn
>
>
>
>
>
> (although aren't teased polls often squibs of the damp variety?)
>
> If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage
Maybe it shows Theresa May with a great approval rating.
Got to admit, it would be a bombshell.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @isam said:
> > >
> > > If The Brexit Party don’t lead in Westminster VI it’s all over for Farage
> >
> > What do you think Farage would do as Prime Minister?
>
> I suspect the same kind of thing Trump does, by which I mean he'd pass some policies he feels strongly about (pretty damn tight immigration laws, probably some very harsh law and order laws) but also spend lots of time blaming external forces for why we weren't living in the sun-lit uplands he promised.
>
> To some extent all governments spend time blaming others for things not being perfect, but populists base so much of their political identity on the fact that the establishment are between the country and utopia that they often do it more.
>
> Tbh though, who knows. He's a very effective politician to promote a cause, but who knows if he'd be suited to the challenges of being PM. I suspect he'd struggle to control his Cabinet given he had endless problems with people at UKIP.
He is an effective politician in respect of the more intellectually challenged sections of the electorate - ie the Thickos. Just like Trump!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
...etc...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
A c.30 point swing away from the european "centre" since 2014 in Italy. The EU has more than Brexit to contend with.
I was looking at the numbers earlier .
The european left will do best in the nations most touched by the sovereign debt crisis/bailouts; the Greens look best in Northern Europe and Scandinavia; the S & D look good in those you've mentioned plus Finland and Latvia but will have miserable nights in Italy, France and Germany.
Macron will do best for ALDE/Renaissance.
Aside from New Democracy in Greece, the EPP look like they are in for a pretty bad set of results. Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic all look bad, as does Germany relative to 2014.
The various reformers, direct democrat and national freedoms groups will prosper most in Italy, the UK, Poland and Slovakia. Denmark appears to be the one place they will go backwards.
The south is still bruised by austerity, the north is pre-occupied with climate change and fiscal prudence, while the east has issues with cultural integration.