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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro poll

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro polls

Latest Westminster polling numbers from @OpiniumResearch sees the Tories down to just 22%. BREX now in third place just one point behindLAB 28 (-5)CON 22 (-4)BREX 21 (+4)LD 11 (+5) UKIP 4CHUK 4 ,

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,149
    Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,290
    I can understand the Euro numbers but I simply don't believe that TBP will get anywhere near 20% at a GE. I wonder if there is a big difference in VI numbers for the GE when there is no Euro vote question in the same poll?

    I do understand I have nothing beyond my own views to support this position but I struggle to see Farage getting too far into double figures in anything other than the Euro elections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    How high can they go? They might hoover up all the leave vote.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,383
    edited May 11
    Is Scott P crying into his pineapple pizza? :D
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,511
    Remainers are hardly rallying towards the Lib Dems though, only a small boost from the local elections in polls so far. They just can't get Labour voters to give them a chance.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    > @Quincel said:
    > Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?

    Typo, judging by the context.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,383
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > I can understand the Euro numbers but I simply don't believe that TBP will get anywhere near 20% at a GE. I wonder if there is a big difference in VI numbers for the GE when there is no Euro vote question in the same poll?
    >
    > I do understand I have nothing beyond my own views to support this position but I struggle to see Farage getting too far into double figures in anything other than the Euro elections.

    It's hard to say.

    As we've never had a democratic vote that wasn't implemented because the losers refused to accept the result it's difficult to know what is going to happen...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,282
    The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,820
    FPT:

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    ...etc...
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.

    On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.

    We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,180
    > @RobD said:
    > > @Quincel said:
    > > Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?
    >
    > Typo, judging by the context.

    Autocorrect is to blame.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,282
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > I can understand the Euro numbers but I simply don't believe that TBP will get anywhere near 20% at a GE. I wonder if there is a big difference in VI numbers for the GE when there is no Euro vote question in the same poll?
    >
    > I do understand I have nothing beyond my own views to support this position but I struggle to see Farage getting too far into double figures in anything other than the Euro elections.

    That's my view too at present, but it shows a potential in the (unlikely) event of Farage getting a full slate of non-embrrassing candidates.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,383
    edited May 11
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.

    I'm sure Brexit Party would rather have that "danger" than be in the position of those losers in CUK. :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.

    Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,180
    > @Artist said:
    > Remainers are hardly rallying towards the Lib Dems though, only a small boost from the local elections in polls so far. They just can't get Labour voters to give them a chance.

    It is the final week that matters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > > @Quincel said:
    > > > Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?
    > >
    > > Typo, judging by the context.
    >
    > Autocorrect is to blame.

    I trust that they have been banned.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,820
    > @RobD said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
    >
    > Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.

    AND

    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > I can understand the Euro numbers but I simply don't believe that TBP will get anywhere near 20% at a GE. I wonder if there is a big difference in VI numbers for the GE when there is no Euro vote question in the same poll?
    > >
    > > I do understand I have nothing beyond my own views to support this position but I struggle to see Farage getting too far into double figures in anything other than the Euro elections.
    >
    > It's hard to say.
    >
    > As we've never had a democratic vote that wasn't implemented because the losers refused to accept the result it's difficult to know what is going to happen...


    We're in uncharted territory. The Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory pendulum that's been in continuous operation since the 1930s is broken. Both parties are simultaneously loathed. Who knows where it will end? I'm quite sure I don't.
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 165
    edited May 11
    Artist said:

    Remainers are hardly rallying towards the Lib Dems though, only a small boost from the local elections in polls so far. They just can't get Labour voters to give them a chance.

    Their 2010 campaign slogan, "Bollocks to Students" wasn't a winner in the long run.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    @Black_Rook we live in interesting times.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,282
    Curiously, in my flat on the edge of Haslemere, the only hand-delivered Euro leaflet that I've received is from the Brexit Party, suggesting at least some degree of actual organisation. Helpfully in this strongly pro-Remain area, it is headed "Labour is a Remain party", so they may still need a bit of work on targeting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,241
    'Farage’s far-sightedness'

    Should that read 'Farage’s far-rightedness'?

    I await the Telegraph poll with contented anticipation.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 44
    > @RobD said:
    > Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.

    That's very unfair. It's not *all* of them...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    > @CatMan said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
    >
    > That's very unfair. It's not *all* of them...

    Just most of them? :smiley:
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,529
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > FPT:
    >
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > ...etc...
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    >
    > I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
    >
    > On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
    >
    > We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.

    No. That sort of result would give Corbyn and Farage 200-odd seats each and the Tories about 100. Farage needs about 25% to start winning significant numbers of seats.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,282
    > @RobD said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
    >
    > Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.

    Yep, they’re such victims.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 1,408
    > @RobD said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
    >
    > Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.

    Unlikely most polls are online now. The shy voter is really only seen in phone or face to face polling .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,383
    > @ralphmalph said:
    >
    >
    >

    The Good Ship May... Is About To Crash. :D
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,947
    > @ralphmalph said:
    >
    >
    >

    That cartoon reminds me of the frog show at the Wynn casino in Las Vegas.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,942
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @Artist said:
    > > Remainers are hardly rallying towards the Lib Dems though, only a small boost from the local elections in polls so far. They just can't get Labour voters to give them a chance.
    >
    > It is the final week that matters.

    Euro elections are very different to by elections etc . People are really not very interested.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,171
    A rare moment when you and I are in total agreement.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,241
    > @williamglenn said:
    > No.
    >
    >

    She means business with that new hair style.

    #InLizWeTruss
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,383
  • isamisam Posts: 26,541
    edited May 11

    The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.

    Oh yes that would be just awful 🤣

    When they win the Euros all anyone will be talking about is the fact they polled higher beforehand!!! 😂
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,566
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,947
    The Brexit Party's election broadcast.

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,459
    edited May 11
    deleted
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,459
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    >
    >

    Hah, you got there just before I did!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,171
    Foxy said:

    That is a disgrace!

    I'd be well cheesed off if she became PM, although probably not as cheesed off as Justin (although weirdly Corbyn seems to get a pass on 50 years of serial cheating.)
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,062
    edited May 11
    How are Truss’s spending review preparations going - not her campaign for No10 but balancing the nations finances?!

    Can’t be easy preparing for it when her boss the Chancellor and PM probably won’t be in their jobs by the time it is due to be delivered in November.

    I know it’s not as mundane as doing a photo shoot but does her interview address what areas she is looking to cut or increase? As it will affect millions for years to come!

    Not as fun as polls but a CSR preparation used to be big news before Brexit!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 1,408
    edited May 11
    Interesting . Just seen the Tories have a three line whip for next Thursday even though nothing much is supposed to be happening on that day. Could the WAIB make its appearance at the last minute .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    >
    >

    There's that damn arrow again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,469
    > @RobD said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
    >
    > Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.

    Leavers are indeed notorious for their reticence in outlining their views.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,383
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    >
    >


    Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.

    Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,171
    RobD said:

    > @williamglenn said:

    > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.

    >

    >



    There's that damn arrow again.

    We need to get shot of it.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,354
    RobD said:

    > @Quincel said:

    > Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?



    Typo, judging by the context.

    The Accidental Tourist Tory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    > @ydoethur said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    >
    > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    > There's that damn arrow again.
    >
    > We need to get shot of it.

    It's making me quiver.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,241
    > @geoffw said:
    > > @Quincel said:
    >
    > > Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?
    >
    >
    >
    > Typo, judging by the context.
    >
    > The Accidental Tory.

    Sarah Wollaston
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,488
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    > >
    > >
    >
    >
    > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
    >
    > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.

    Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,576
    > @Dadge said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > FPT:
    > >
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > > ...etc...
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >
    > > I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
    > >
    > > On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
    > >
    > > We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
    >
    > No. That sort of result would give Corbyn and Farage 200-odd seats each and the Tories about 100. Farage needs about 25% to start winning significant numbers of seats.

    The Labour seat count is remarkably resilient at low vote %s, Coventry North West is ordered seat 190 - and knowing Coventry, that'll probably be Labour forever !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,188
    Is Dom Cummings involved in the Brexit party ?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,488
    > @TGOHF said:
    > Is Dom Cummings involved in the Brexit party ?

    No. Last I read he was doing consultancy work for Tory MPs that want HS2 cancelled.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,171

    Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.

    Make Britain Great Again, surely? Free hit for Farage. Even somebody as thick as Corbyn would be able to remember that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,576
    We plough the Field and scatter...

    > @williamglenn said:

    >
    > #InLizWeTruss

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,469
    > @Dadge said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > FPT:
    > >
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > > ...etc...
    > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >
    > > I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
    > >
    > > On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
    > >
    > > We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
    >
    > No. That sort of result would give Corbyn and Farage 200-odd seats each and the Tories about 100. Farage needs about 25% to start winning significant numbers of seats.

    Yep. I put that Westminster poll into Electoral Calculus, and BP came out with 21 seats on 21%. All from the Tories, except Hartlepool. (Although still 1 behind the LD's).
    The gains are exponential with every extra percentage point.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,459
    So, thoughts on the Brexit Party's PPB.

    As others on Twitter have said, "the establishment isn't going to know what hit it". It's slick, professional and has a very simple message: you can't trust the establishment, but you can trust us, because we are people just like you.

    Leave aside for a moment your doubts about whether that's true or not, this is a PPB designed to make your average person think the Brexit Party is behind them.

    It doesn't go all angry and shouty. It doesn't scream betrayal. It speaks softly about being let down. Disappointed. But believing in better.

    It uses a broad cross section of society - age, gender, colour, town/country to appear inclusive. The message is subtle but clear: We're not UKIP! We're not closet racists! We're not a bunch of old boys in blazers. Etc.

    It sticks to a simple message. It uses lots of light and hazy soft focus with an optimistic, upbeat soundtrack to reinforce the feeling of positive change. It's strictly middle of the road, but it makes the Brexit party cuddly. These are candidates you could have a pint with, or bump into in the shops, or invite in for a cup of tea.

    The Brexit Party must be a serious contender now, not just for the Euro elections but for Westminster as well.

    They are promising change to people who have felt let down by politicians for years. And change is a powerful thing.

    I would not be surprised to see the Brexit Party leading in quite a few Westminster polls when this broadcast airs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,171

    No. Last I read he was doing consultancy work for Tory MPs that want HS2 cancelled.

    HS2 nailed on to reach Edinburgh.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,125
    > @ydoethur said:
    > No. Last I read he was doing consultancy work for Tory MPs that want HS2 cancelled.
    >
    > HS2 nailed on to reach Edinburgh.

    Replacement bus service
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,820
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
    > >
    > > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
    >
    > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.

    Depends if they can get their shit together once they have to agree on a policy platform beyond Hard Brexit.

    The big vacant space in politics is for a mass market political movement for people who are, in broad brush terms, socially conservative and moderately left of centre on economics and public spending. It doesn't take a genius to drawn up the outline of a manifesto to try to win this segment of the electorate: shire Tories, especially outside the south-east, and the traditional Labour vote in the Midlands and North.

    Whether they can pull off such a manifesto - that's the big question.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,947
    > @TGOHF said:
    > Is Dom Cummings involved in the Brexit party ?

    Cummings thought he was a genius and Farage was a liability. The Brexit Party is proving him wrong.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,383
    > @kyf_100 said:
    > So, thoughts on the Brexit Party's PPB.
    >
    > As others on Twitter have said, "the establishment isn't going to know what hit it". It's slick, professional and has a very simple message: you can't trust the establishment, but you can trust us, because we are people just like you.
    >
    > Leave aside for a moment your doubts about whether that's true or not, this is a PPB designed to make your average person think the Brexit Party is behind them.
    >
    > It doesn't go all angry and shouty. It doesn't scream betrayal. It speaks softly about being let down. Disappointed. But believing in better.
    >
    > It uses a broad cross section of society - age, gender, colour, town/country to appear inclusive. The message is subtle but clear: We're not UKIP! We're not closet racists! We're not a bunch of old boys in blazers. Etc.
    >
    > It sticks to a simple message. It uses lots of light and hazy soft focus with an optimistic, upbeat soundtrack to reinforce the feeling of positive change. It's strictly middle of the road, but it makes the Brexit party cuddly. These are candidates you could have a pint with, or bump into in the shops, or invite in for a cup of tea.
    >
    > The Brexit Party must be a serious contender now, not just for the Euro elections but for Westminster as well.
    >
    > They are promising change to people who have felt let down by politicians for years. And change is a powerful thing.
    >
    > I would not be surprised to see the Brexit Party leading in quite a few Westminster polls when this broadcast airs.
    >
    >

    Yep, Con and Lab are not going to know what's hit them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,171
    Omnium said:

    Replacement bus service

    If Cummings was organising a replacement bus service, it would first go to the wrong station and then run out of fuel in the middle of nowhere, whereupon he would blame the driver for not following instructions.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,565
    Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE

    Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?

    27 more Labour MPs?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,288
    Parenthetically, if you are ever placed in a situation where you have to have a professional photo taken, lift your chin up slightly, suck your cheeks in a bit, and do not place weight on an appendage in such a way as to induce temporary wrinkles (as Liz does with her finger). A good approach is to make a semi-fist and lay one's chin gently upon the back of the lower fingers. This hides any jowls or wrinkly necks.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,354
    kyf_100 said:

    So, thoughts on the Brexit Party's PPB.
    As others on Twitter have said, "the establishment isn't going to know what hit it". It's slick, professional and has a very simple message: you can't trust the establishment, but you can trust us, because we are people just like you.
    Leave aside for a moment your doubts about whether that's true or not, this is a PPB designed to make your average person think the Brexit Party is behind them.
    It doesn't go all angry and shouty. It doesn't scream betrayal. It speaks softly about being let down. Disappointed. But believing in better.
    It uses a broad cross section of society - age, gender, colour, town/country to appear inclusive. The message is subtle but clear: We're not UKIP! We're not closet racists! We're not a bunch of old boys in blazers. Etc.
    It sticks to a simple message. It uses lots of light and hazy soft focus with an optimistic, upbeat soundtrack to reinforce the feeling of positive change. It's strictly middle of the road, but it makes the Brexit party cuddly. These are candidates you could have a pint with, or bump into in the shops, or invite in for a cup of tea.
    The Brexit Party must be a serious contender now, not just for the Euro elections but for Westminster as well.
    They are promising change to people who have felt let down by politicians for years. And change is a powerful thing.
    I would not be surprised to see the Brexit Party leading in quite a few Westminster polls when this broadcast airs.

    I need Roger's opinion.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,469
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
    >
    > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
    >
    > 27 more Labour MPs?

    I think you may assume incorrectly. I reckon the message to them is an open invite to be one of those candidates.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,488
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    > > Is Dom Cummings involved in the Brexit party ?
    >
    > Cummings thought he was a genius and Farage was a liability. The Brexit Party is proving him wrong.

    I disagree with this. At the time of the Ref I think Farage was a liability. I am a leave voter and I watched Farage at the minor leaders TV show 2015 talk about we should not treat foreign people with HIV and grimaced. At this time I think it was getting a bit much for him. To me his poster reinforced this view, the ref was more than just immigration (but this was a major part).

    I think Farage has refreshed his batteries and had a think about where he was going wrong last time. He is a better politician for it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,819
    edited May 11
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
    >
    > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
    >
    > 27 more Labour MPs?

    They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal

    Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,565
    kyf_100 said:

    So, thoughts on the Brexit Party's PPB.

    As others on Twitter have said, "the establishment isn't going to know what hit it". It's slick, professional and has a very simple message: you can't trust the establishment, but you can trust us, because we are people just like you.

    dixiedean said:

    I think you may assume incorrectly. I reckon the message to them is an open invite to be one of those candidates.

    We are not the establishment, we are people just like you.

    And 27 long serving Tory MPs who are just like you also...
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 44
    edited May 11
    > @ralphmalph said:
    >
    > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.

    How can they do that and not make it sound like "Let's return to Empire!" though?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,565

    They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal

    They want candidates not to stand...

    Genius.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,288
    edited May 11

    The big vacant space in politics is for a mass market political movement for people who are, in broad brush terms, socially conservative and moderately left of centre on economics and public spending. It doesn't take a genius to drawn up the outline of a manifesto to try to win this segment of the electorate: shire Tories, especially outside the south-east, and the traditional Labour vote in the Midlands and North.

    Whether they can pull off such a manifesto - that's the big question.

    They can't. So they won't.

    Manifestos are just distractions and large targets, as May found out. Who remembers Dave's 2010 manifesto (or Brown's for that matter)? The only thing anybody remembers from Con manifesto 2015 was the referendum committment, and Con manifesto 2017 was "we're going to take your house from you". Far easier not to do that.

    Stick to vagaries, get celeb endorsements, embody the anger, focus-group like crazy, and they might win. My gut says they'll split the difference and let in Corbyn, but my gut has been wrong before. We'll know closer to the date... :(
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,282
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
    > >
    > > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
    >
    > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.

    I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,819
    > @Scott_P said:
    > They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
    >
    > They want candidates not to stand...
    >
    > Genius.

    Sounds like you are gettong worried that remain is disappearing over the horizon
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,209
    edited May 11
    dixiedean said:

    > @Scott_P said:

    > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE

    >

    > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?

    >

    > 27 more Labour MPs?



    I think you may assume incorrectly. I reckon the message to them is an open invite to be one of those candidates.

    IIRC Farage has said he is more interested in Tory donors than Tory MPs. Remember he didn't have a whale of a time the last time it happened.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,566
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
    > >
    > > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
    > >
    > > 27 more Labour MPs?
    >
    > They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
    >
    > Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats

    I think the chaos is in Tory seats!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,125
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
    > > >
    > > > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
    > >
    > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
    >
    > I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.

    cf Chukka UK CHUK though.

    Farage has done a much better job, and he has a slightly better argument to sell.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,488
    > @CatMan said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > >
    > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
    >
    > How can they do that and not make it sound like "Let's return to Empire!" though?
    >
    >

    Because the pitch would have nothing to do with Empire. It would be about cohesive communities, respect for the regions from London centric political parties, etc, etc.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,819
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
    > > >
    > > > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
    > > >
    > > > 27 more Labour MPs?
    > >
    > > They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
    > >
    > > Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
    >
    > I think the chaos is in Tory seats!

    I think you are trying to deflect the chaos labour will see over this
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,820
    > @viewcode said:
    > The big vacant space in politics is for a mass market political movement for people who are, in broad brush terms, socially conservative and moderately left of centre on economics and public spending. It doesn't take a genius to drawn up the outline of a manifesto to try to win this segment of the electorate: shire Tories, especially outside the south-east, and the traditional Labour vote in the Midlands and North.
    >
    > Whether they can pull off such a manifesto - that's the big question.
    >
    > They can't. So they won't.
    >
    > Manifestos are just distractions and large targets, as May found out. Who remembers Dave's 2010 manifesto (or Brown's for that matter)? The only thing anybody remembers from Con manifesto 2015 was the referendum committment, and Con manifesto 2017 was "we're going to take your house from you". Far easier not to do that.
    >
    > Stick to vagaries, get celeb endorsements, embody the anger, focus-group like crazy, and they might win. My gut says they'll split the difference and let in Corbyn, but my gut has been wrong before. We'll know closer to the date... :(

    Well, this could be argued to be true up to a point, but they're going to need some kind of common platform to present - even if it's only a few pages long and consists of a handful of pledges of what they will and will not do.

    My main concern would also be of a Labour victory on a paltry share of the vote, but if we find ourselves anywhere close to a situation where Lab, Con, LD and Brexit are all reasonably close together in terms of vote share then frankly who knows for sure what might happen?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,066
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    >
    >

    > @williamglenn said:
    > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    >
    >

    Time for your medication Darren......
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,620
    The Brexit Party PPB has a simple message. It is good at delivering that message. It communicates it clearly and well. Farage is no fool.

    I guess the next hurdles for the Brexit Party are a bit harder:

    (i) Are all these candidates squeaky clean?
    (ii) Will any of these candidates say some thing dumb/racist/barking when out campaigning?

    As the Tiggers found out, the launch is the easier bit. The funny tinges come later.

    But. I would be very worried if I was a Peoples Voter. I don't think at the moment Remain have any effective spokespeople at all (except possibly Sturgeon).

    The Remainer politicians have really abysmally failed so far and look like they would feck up a second referendum.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,459
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
    > > >
    > > > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
    > >
    > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
    >
    > I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.

    I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them.

    I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered.

    This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,566
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > > @CatMan said:
    > > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > >
    > > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
    > >
    > > How can they do that and not make it sound like "Let's return to Empire!" though?
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Because the pitch would have nothing to do with Empire. It would be about cohesive communities, respect for the regions from London centric political parties, etc, etc.

    Why would Brexit fix that? Nothing there that wasn't already under our control.

    The last few years haven't exaxtly brought communities and regions together!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,566
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
    > > > >
    > > > > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
    > > > >
    > > > > 27 more Labour MPs?
    > > >
    > > > They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
    > > >
    > > > Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
    > >
    > > I think the chaos is in Tory seats!
    >
    > I think you are trying to deflect the chaos labour will see over this

    I think Labour are quite enjoying Tory seppuko!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,947
    > @kyf_100 said:
    >
    > I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them.
    >
    > I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered.
    >
    > This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.

    Yes I think you're right. In some ways I think the risk for the Brexit Party could be that they overshoot and actually do destroy the Conservatives instead of nudging them in the desired direction.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,819
    > @kyf_100 said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
    > > > >
    > > > > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
    > > >
    > > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
    > >
    > > I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
    >
    > I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them.
    >
    > I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered.
    >
    > This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.

    I am not a supporter of Farage's party but their election broadcast is very simple with a message of betrayal and may well influence many voters

    What is true is the remain parties seem to have left the field and the prospect of remaining is fading day by day
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,354

    Scott_P said:


    They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal

    They want candidates not to stand...

    Genius.

    Sounds like you are gettong worried that remain is disappearing over the horizon
    are they falling off a cliff?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,469
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > > @viewcode said:
    > > The big vacant space in politics is for a mass market political movement for people who are, in broad brush terms, socially conservative and moderately left of centre on economics and public spending. It doesn't take a genius to drawn up the outline of a manifesto to try to win this segment of the electorate: shire Tories, especially outside the south-east, and the traditional Labour vote in the Midlands and North.
    > >
    > > Whether they can pull off such a manifesto - that's the big question.
    > >
    > > They can't. So they won't.
    > >
    > > Manifestos are just distractions and large targets, as May found out. Who remembers Dave's 2010 manifesto (or Brown's for that matter)? The only thing anybody remembers from Con manifesto 2015 was the referendum committment, and Con manifesto 2017 was "we're going to take your house from you". Far easier not to do that.
    > >
    > > Stick to vagaries, get celeb endorsements, embody the anger, focus-group like crazy, and they might win. My gut says they'll split the difference and let in Corbyn, but my gut has been wrong before. We'll know closer to the date... :(
    >
    > Well, this could be argued to be true up to a point, but they're going to need some kind of common platform to present - even if it's only a few pages long and consists of a handful of pledges of what they will and will not do.
    >
    > My main concern would also be of a Labour victory on a paltry share of the vote, but if we find ourselves anywhere close to a situation where Lab, Con, LD and Brexit are all reasonably close together in terms of vote share then frankly who knows for sure what might happen?

    Even if it is only a bullet point manifesto, they will still be questioned about what they intend to do on tax and spend, education, NHS, pensions, social care, and a host of other things we can't think of now. The danger is that different candidates will give answers completely at odds with each other.
    Whether that will be fatal, or forgiven because "they are people like you" is another question.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,948

    > @williamglenn said:

    > No.

    >

    >





    She means business with that new hair style.



    #InLizWeTruss
    Not very Prime Ministerial looking. Difficult for female politicians when asked to do fashion shoots.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,125
    If BF had a market 'PM after next' Farage might well be trading as the fav.

    That he's priced the way he is in the next PM market is astonishing - it'll take a disorderly GE to get him there. Noone's laying these prices though.

    Admittedly these markets have also featured David 'Lazarus' Milliband for a while, and John Bercow has not been ruled out of the Labour leadership apparently.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,488
    Telegraph scoop is

    "The Brexit Party has overtaken the Conservatives in national polling for the first time, with Nigel Farage predicted to win 49 seats in a general election, a bombshell poll reveals."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,158
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > Telegraph scoop is
    >
    > "The Brexit Party has overtaken the Conservatives in national polling for the first time, with Nigel Farage predicted to win 49 seats in a general election, a bombshell poll reveals."

    And they said it couldn't happen with FPTP. :D
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,488
    It is polling commissioned by Jeremy Hosking.
This discussion has been closed.