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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 13 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might never have become PM

With the pressure ratcheting up in the Tory party against TMay it is perhaps worth recalling how she got the job in the first place in July 2016. Boris was the longstanding favourite but pulled out following Michael Gove’s surprise entry into the race. In the MP balloting TMay came top with Andrea Leadsom second.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,443
    First like Man City.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,589
    Second like Liverpool. Again.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,487
    Between somewhere and nowhere like the Conservative "government" ....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,443
    So who's going to short Metro Bank shares when the market opens? :D
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: post-race ramble about Spain is here:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/05/spain-post-race-analysis-2019.html
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,442

    This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    >
    > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party

    You might well be right.
    Great Uncle Vince or no, I’ll be voting for them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,893
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    >
    > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party

    Time to CHUK in the towel?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Smithson, between Labour and the Lib Dems, surely?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    “There is a sense of people coming together and uniting.”

    Theresa May - Easter, 2017.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Smithson, between Labour and the Lib Dems, surely?

    Looking like a battle between the Brexit Party and fresh air.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,589

    Mr. Smithson, between Labour and the Lib Dems, surely?

    That’s for second place. Mike’s hoping it’s between BP and LD for first place.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,589
    tlg86 said:

    So who's going to short Metro Bank shares when the market opens? :D

    Everyone?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @Gardenwalker said:
    > “There is a sense of people coming together and uniting.”
    >
    > Theresa May - Easter, 2017.

    Behind Nigel ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Sandpit, probably tasty odds for anyone inclined to bet that way. If it happens.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @Sandpit said:
    > So who's going to short Metro Bank shares when the market opens? :D
    >
    > Everyone?

    Looks like they're in trouble !
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,736
    Has YouGov released the full data for its polls? It would be interesting to know what UKIP, the SNP and PC got.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,640
    edited May 13
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > Time to CHUK in the towel?

    Probably no harm in hanging on and seeing what happens. They still have their broadcasts and TV slots. Do those, take the publicity you can, sign people up for mailing lists and things, and if it still looks hopeless a few days before the vote, *then* advocate backing LD (or Green if they're looking stronger). That's much more helpful for the lucky recipient of their endorsement, because they get a full news cycle on how well they're doing right before the election.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    >
    > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party

    I did suggest that a while ago
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    I assume there has never been a national poll showing labour at 16% and conservatives at 10%
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    What impact on main party MPs will this polling disintegration have? They weren’t exactly enthused with their party’s leaderships when they were polling around 40%.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,443
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @Sandpit said:
    > > So who's going to short Metro Bank shares when the market opens? :D
    > >
    > > Everyone?
    >
    > Looks like they're in trouble !

    They’ve lost 88% of their value in just over a year.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > Time to CHUK in the towel?
    >
    > Probably no harm in hanging on and seeing what happens. They still have their broadcasts and TV slots. Do those, take the publicity you can, sign people up for mailing lists and things, and if it still looks hopeless a few days before the vote, *then* advocate backing LD (or Green if they're looking stronger). That's much more helpful for the lucky recipient of their endorsement, because they get a full news cycle on how well they're doing right before the election.

    They shouldn't have much TV time, polling appallingly, didn't contest the locals..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > I assume there has never been a national poll showing labour at 16% and conservatives at 10%

    My 60/1 on Lab under 10% is looking tasty!

    Surely there will be another challenge to Corbyn this summer, as well as May? I know in theory she is secure until December, but it is not tenable to have people openly contesting the leadership while she is a lame duck.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > I assume there has never been a national poll showing labour at 16% and conservatives at 10%

    There might have been something like that when the Alliance was first set up in the early 80's. Pre-Falklands, of course!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.

    Seconded.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @Gardenwalker said:
    > > “There is a sense of people coming together and uniting.”
    > >
    > > Theresa May - Easter, 2017.
    >
    > Behind Nigel ?

    Of course. The LibDem landslide is nailed on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. NorthWales, I missed that number before.

    I think Brown's worst was a 19 point standing for Labour. That said, the worst lead was 28 points for Cameron (Con 52, Lab 24).

    Quite another time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,828

    On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.

    I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.

    Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?

    At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.

    If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?

    Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?

    And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?

    My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.

    (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)

    Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,309
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @Sandpit said:
    > > So who's going to short Metro Bank shares when the market opens? :D
    > >
    > > Everyone?
    >
    > Looks like they're in trouble !

    Damn. I've found them very convenient to use for my personal banking.
    Hope they pull through somehow.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,345
    edited May 13
    Foxy said:

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > I assume there has never been a national poll showing labour at 16% and conservatives at 10%



    My 60/1 on Lab under 10% is looking tasty!



    Surely there will be another challenge to Corbyn this summer, as well as May? I know in theory she is secure until December, but it is not tenable to have people openly contesting the leadership while she is a lame duck.

    Could be for the best, give Corbyn a renewed mandate and take the wind out of the sails of some of his critics in the party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500

    What impact on main party MPs will this polling disintegration have? They weren’t exactly enthused with their party’s leaderships when they were polling around 40%.

    It will reinforce whatever preexisting prejudices each of them have.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. rkrkrk, whilst not a customer, I hope they're alright too.

    More competition, which requires new blood, is a good thing for consumers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500
    Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?

    I have two mortgages with them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.
    >
    > I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.
    >
    > Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?
    >
    > At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.
    >
    > If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?
    >
    > Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?
    >
    > And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?
    >
    > My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.
    >
    > (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)
    >
    > Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.

    It’s healthy for banks to go bust from time to time. The problems come if a bank’s failure would have immediate systemic implications.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,736
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > I assume there has never been a national poll showing labour at 16% and conservatives at 10%
    >
    > My 60/1 on Lab under 10% is looking tasty!
    >
    > Surely there will be another challenge to Corbyn this summer, as well as May? I know in theory she is secure until December, but it is not tenable to have people openly contesting the leadership while she is a lame Duck.

    We already know that Labour members believe having Jeremy as leader is more important than the party winning elections.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,736
    Looking at the polling, it seems that a lot of voters have decided they don’t support Jeremy Corbyn’s nostalgic, Bennite Socialist vision for the UK after all; or maybe millions backed Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory hard Brexit. Hmmmm.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,309
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. rkrkrk, whilst not a customer, I hope they're alright too.
    >
    > More competition, which requires new blood, is a good thing for consumers.

    Was a few years back, but I walked in at 4pm on a Sunday without an appointment. I walked out at 4:30pm with a bank account, set up for online banking and a debit card they printed out in store I could use within 24 hours. Wasted months with Lloyds trying to do the same thing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.
    >
    > I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.
    >
    > Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?
    >
    > At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.
    >
    > If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?
    >
    > Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?
    >
    > And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?
    >
    > My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.
    >
    > (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)
    >
    > Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.

    I think your recollection is right but Mike is also right to point out that a contested vote would have highlighted May's serious weaknesses as a campaigner which just might have led to second thoughts.

    The extension to date has been a complete waste of time. No one is changing their position and we still have deadlock. It is hard to see any movement until we come up against the deadline again in October. Hopefully the EU will refuse a further extension and state that we either revoke or leave. We seem completely incapable of resolving this ourselves.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,640
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > What impact on main party MPs will this polling disintegration have? They weren’t exactly enthused with their party’s leaderships when they were polling around 40%.

    I guess most of them will put their seats into Baxter and go, "hmm, we lost half our votes but it seems like I get to keep my job regardless, FPTP is pretty great"
  • This is a good point, but I honestly don't remember it being suggested at the time. I doubt the MPs would have reacted well to a candidate going forward who they'd rejected.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    edited May 13
    Mr Smithson.

    The figures were:

    May 199
    Leadsom 84
    Gove 46

    Are you seriously suggesting it would have been a good idea to put forward a candidate with the backing of just one-seventh of the parliamentary party by means of a change of the rules in mid-race?

    Leaving aside the fact the candidate in question was Michael Gove, who is like May without the good qualities.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    Interesting that the Greens are up too. Implies that the Lib Dem bandwagon could still have a lot further to run.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,309
    On the topic of European elections, just been contacted by a not-very-political family member suggesting I vote Lib Dems vs. Labour in S. East as they have a better chance against the Brexit party. Is that actually true?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Me, also possible that's driven by negative voting (ie against X rather than for Y), as some disaffected with Labour might still refuse to vote yellow due to the Coalition years when the Lib Dems unforgivably became part of the government.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,736
    Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    edited May 13
    rkrkrk said:

    On the topic of European elections, just been contacted by a not-very-political family member suggesting I vote Lib Dems vs. Labour in S. East as they have a better chance against the Brexit party. Is that actually true?

    I haven't any evidence either way, but given London is not in the South East region and Labour hold a grand total of seven widely scattered seats at Westminster and just one in Europe at present it doesn't seem improbable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540

    Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.

    It stops PM Farage and makes PM Corbyn highly improbable.

    There's quite a good one immediately.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Me, also possible that's driven by negative voting (ie against X rather than for Y), as some disaffected with Labour might still refuse to vote yellow due to the Coalition years when the Lib Dems unforgivably became part of the government.

    I think the Coalition effect is now decisively in the past. If it were still strong the Lib Dems would be behind the Greens (as they were at the 2014 European elections) and wouldn't have made huge gains at the local elections.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,640
    > @rkrkrk said:
    > On the topic of European elections, just been contacted by a not-very-political family member suggesting I vote Lib Dems vs. Labour in S. East as they have a better chance against the Brexit party. Is that actually true?

    I think they both have a decent chance of getting 1, and need quite a heroic performance to get 2? So probably not.

    However if the goal is to back a Remain candidate you also need to look at whether the party supports Remain, which with the LDs is Yes and with Labour is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500
    FPT - it’s Chris Rea the businessman not Chris Rea the singer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500

    Looking at the polling, it seems that a lot of voters have decided they don’t support Jeremy Corbyn’s nostalgic, Bennite Socialist vision for the UK after all; or maybe millions backed Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory hard Brexit. Hmmmm.

    Corbyn is what keeps me and my wife awake at night.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,640
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.

    ...unless you're one of the MPs who gets to make the decision, in which case it has the defence that you get to keep your job, apparently no matter how much you bollocks it up and how much the voters hate you.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,535
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @rkrkrk said:
    > > On the topic of European elections, just been contacted by a not-very-political family member suggesting I vote Lib Dems vs. Labour in S. East as they have a better chance against the Brexit party. Is that actually true?
    >
    > I think they both have a decent chance of getting 1, and need quite a heroic performance to get 2? So probably not.
    >
    > However if the goal is to back a Remain candidate you also need to look at whether the party supports Remain, which with the LDs is Yes and with Labour is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    If labour were a remain party it would be all over now and we would continue as a member of the EU by revoking A50.

    That is the damage labour are doing to remainers by playing to both sides

    If you are a remainer the Lib Dems is the place for your x
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    > @ydoethur said:
    > Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
    >
    > It stops PM Farage and makes PM Corbyn highly improbable.
    >
    > There's quite a good one immediately.

    On the vote shares in that poll Farage wins a majority of 266 with 34%. Yay FPTP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    > @ydoethur said:
    > Mr Smithson.
    >
    > The figures were:
    >
    > May 199
    > Leadsom 84
    > Gove 46
    >
    > Are you seriously suggesting it would have been a good idea to put forward a candidate with the backing of just one-seventh of the parliamentary party by means of a change of the rules in mid-race?
    >
    > Leaving aside the fact the candidate in question was Michael Gove, who is like May without the good qualities.

    Had Gove been PM, we’d very probably have Brexited by now, however disastrously.
    Farage would be on the US speech circuit, and we’d be looking forward to next year’s general election.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,443
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?
    >
    > I have two mortgages with them.

    https://tinyurl.com/y55l9sod

    And

    https://tinyurl.com/ybkpts5b

    Metro Bank has revealed a major blunder in how it classifies its loan book, an admission that drove its share price down by nearly 40% on Wednesday, wiping £800m off the value of the company.

    The bank, which has been opening new branches as established rivals cut back, revealed that hundreds of millions of pounds of commercial property loans and loans to commercial buy-to-let operators had been wrongly classified in risk terms, and should have been among its “risk-weighted assets” (RWAs).
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 165
    edited May 13
    The details of the Comres from the weekend had Labour on 29 and the LD on 27 in London, and the LD one point ahead of Lab in the SE.

    Brexit are neck and neck with Labour in the NE and Wales and some way clear in Yorks and Humber. There's something like a 7 point swing from Lab>>BP in the Northern eastern regions.

    BP miles ahead in the SW.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,334



    This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
    The pygmies fight to the death
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683

    Looking at the polling, it seems that a lot of voters have decided they don’t support Jeremy Corbyn’s nostalgic, Bennite Socialist vision for the UK after all; or maybe millions backed Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory hard Brexit. Hmmmm.

    Corbyn is what keeps me and my wife awake at night.
    I can think of better reasons.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,334

    > @Morris_Dancer said:

    > Mr. Me, also possible that's driven by negative voting (ie against X rather than for Y), as some disaffected with Labour might still refuse to vote yellow due to the Coalition years when the Lib Dems unforgivably became part of the government.



    I think the Coalition effect is now decisively in the past. If it were still strong the Lib Dems would be behind the Greens (as they were at the 2014 European elections) and wouldn't have made huge gains at the local elections.

    Dream on , they will be back in the gutter in short order. A one time vote for those who could not stomach voting Farage means nothing , normal service will be resumed when a real election comes up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,589

    Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?

    I have two mortgages with them.

    A £350m “Accounting Error”, according to the bank :open_mouth:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48243155
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    If it were up to me Malcolm the grudge against the Lib Dems for the Coalition years would be passed down the generations, mother to son, father to daughter, for seven generations. We'll see at the next GE which way the electorate view things.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,828
    DavidL said:

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.

    >

    > I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.

    >

    > Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?

    >

    > At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.

    >

    > If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?

    >

    > Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?

    >

    > And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?

    >

    > My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.

    >

    > (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)

    >

    > Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.



    I think your recollection is right but Mike is also right to point out that a contested vote would have highlighted May's serious weaknesses as a campaigner which just might have led to second thoughts.



    The extension to date has been a complete waste of time. No one is changing their position and we still have deadlock. It is hard to see any movement until we come up against the deadline again in October. Hopefully the EU will refuse a further extension and state that we either revoke or leave. We seem completely incapable of resolving this ourselves.

    Indeed. Quite ironic for a movement designed to Take Back Control.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,334
    Nigelb said:

    > @Pulpstar said:

    > > @Gardenwalker said:

    > > “There is a sense of people coming together and uniting.”

    > >

    > > Theresa May - Easter, 2017.

    >

    > Behind Nigel ?



    Of course. The LibDem landslide is nailed on.

    😂 Gardenwalker🤡
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited May 13

    Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.

    Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.

    Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,948
    The manner of the election would have only made a small difference because personnel has been a secondary effect.

    Brexit was always going to be difficult because Leavers don’t agree on where we are heading and cannot resolve the contradictions and tensions inherent in Brexit. Not least how you manage the economic impact.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > FPT - it’s Chris Rea the businessman not Chris Rea the singer.

    Tories (And possibly Labour) look like they're on the road to hell at any rate.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,827
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    >
    > > On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.
    >
    >
    >
    > I think your recollection is right but Mike is also right to point out that a contested vote would have highlighted May's serious weaknesses as a campaigner which just might have led to second thoughts.
    >
    >
    >
    > The extension to date has been a complete waste of time. No one is changing their position and we still have deadlock. It is hard to see any movement until we come up against the deadline again in October. Hopefully the EU will refuse a further extension and state that we either revoke or leave. We seem completely incapable of resolving this ourselves.
    >
    > Indeed. Quite ironic for a movement designed to Take Back Control.

    Except 'the movement' have no control over this. It is down to those who have no brlief in Brexit anyway
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,948
    > @Sandpit said:
    > Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?
    >
    > I have two mortgages with them.
    >
    > A £350m “Accounting Error”, according to the bank :open_mouth:
    >
    > https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48243155

    Sounds like they do their accounting on the side of a bus.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,736
    > @isam said:
    > Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
    >
    > Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.
    >
    > Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.

    I have always supported PR, but the major parties oppose it for obvious reasons. They would also apply if a BAME party was surging.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,162
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    >
    > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party

    Some "battle" - Brexit Party is nearly 20% ahead! :D
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    Jonathan said:

    The manner of the election would have only made a small difference because personnel has been a secondary effect.



    Brexit was always going to be difficult because Leavers don’t agree on where we are heading and cannot resolve the contradictions and tensions inherent in Brexit. Not least how you manage the economic impact.

    Had the MPs who voted to invoke A50 and got elected by promising to respect the referendum result felt compelled to do so, we’d have left ages ago, even without the ERG.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,344
    It really is remarkable that in an era is unprecedented fragmentation we can have Labour vote share plummeting, the Tories heading for single figures, LDs surging to 2nd, Brexit Party WAY out in front, and the Green surging to double figures, and we can have all that going on and STILL Change UK can't get any traction!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    Some brave soul needs to challenge Corbyn this summer.

    Watson?

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,344
    > @isam said:
    > Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
    >
    > Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.
    >
    > Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.

    That's a very fair point, but I think people liked to tell themselves that UKIP was still a 'small party' in that it 'shouldn't' have won. Polling at the moment could leave us with someone who isn't a clear winner in vote share getting a majority, or parties with almost identical vote shares getting 300 vs 30 seats. We're basically back to 1983 except it's The Brexit Party and the Tories, not The Alliance and Labour.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,948
    edited May 13
    > @isam said:
    > The manner of the election would have only made a small difference because personnel has been a secondary effect.
    >
    >
    >
    > Brexit was always going to be difficult because Leavers don’t agree on where we are heading and cannot resolve the contradictions and tensions inherent in Brexit. Not least how you manage the economic impact.
    >
    > Had the MPs who voted to invoke A50 and got elected by promising to respect the referendum result felt compelled to do so, we’d have left ages ago, even without the ERG.

    If they had turned their brains off and ignored the detail we could have left. But your gang would still be complaining and shouting betrayal. That’s what you do.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,640
    > @Quincel said:
    > It really is remarkable that in an era is unprecedented fragmentation we can have Labour vote share plummeting, the Tories heading for single figures, LDs surging to 2nd, Brexit Party WAY out in front, and the Green surging to double figures, and we can have all that going on and STILL Change UK can't get any traction!

    Dunno though, their assumption was pretty much that the LDs had gone away; Once you say they haven't, it's just hard to see what CHUK are for. I mean, there are people who still dislike the LDs because they worked with the Tories, but some of the CHUK MPs were actual Tories...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114
    > @isam said:
    > Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
    >
    > Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.
    >
    > Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.

    Whatifery at its absolute best.

    And at least you finally admit the 2015 version of UKIP was nasty ... ;)

    UKIP is nasty, was always nasty, and will always be nasty. And where UKIP was, and went, so the Brexit Party will go.
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 165
    edited May 13
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @MikeSmithson said:
    > >
    > > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
    >
    > Some "battle" - Brexit Party is nearly 20% ahead! :D

    The LD vote is affluent, southern Remainerism as evidenced by the council elections. Labour now seem to have the same squeeze developing that the Tories have had.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.

    The length of the extension offered will be determined by EU timetables, not UK ones. I'd therefore expect the next extension to run up to the end of the EU budget period (end 2020), with a commitment from the UK to hold a general election or referendum within that time period to attempt to break the political impasse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    It was observed by someone awhile back, I forget who, that sometimes there seems ample reasons for polling to do one thing but it does not. So for instance the Tories maintained very high ratings and leads despite being in open civil war for months. But then suddenly things shift and the polling finally start reflecting what seems like it should have been the case for month. So if people really are fed up with the main two and if remain is so popular both main two should be down and the lds should be up.

    Perhaps we are finally getting there.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,213
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @Sandpit said:
    > > Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?
    > >
    > > I have two mortgages with them.
    > >
    > > A £350m “Accounting Error”, according to the bank :open_mouth:
    > >
    > > https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48243155
    >
    > Sounds like they do their accounting on the side of a bus.

    Yes, but the difference is that someone from Metrobank will end up seriously accountable, whereas Boris et al ….
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    The Tories are dropping so low in the euros they seem to be trying to get my vote by pity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    Jonathan said:

    > @Sandpit said:

    > Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?

    >

    > I have two mortgages with them.

    >

    > A £350m “Accounting Error”, according to the bank :open_mouth:

    >

    > https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48243155



    Sounds like they do their accounting on the side of a bus.

    At least if you have a mortgage with them, then you owe them money, rather than they have your money.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    kle4 said:

    It was observed by someone awhile back, I forget who, that sometimes there seems ample reasons for polling to do one thing but it does not. So for instance the Tories maintained very high ratings and leads despite being in open civil war for months. But then suddenly things shift and the polling finally start reflecting what seems like it should have been the case for month. So if people really are fed up with the main two and if remain is so popular both main two should be down and the lds should be up.

    Perhaps we are finally getting there.

    It's the bollx to Brexit wot done it!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,213
    Graham Brady has done nothing really to offend me, but why does he have such a "punchable" face? And I am a Tory!
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    Quincel said:

    It really is remarkable that in an era is unprecedented fragmentation we can have Labour vote share plummeting, the Tories heading for single figures, LDs surging to 2nd, Brexit Party WAY out in front, and the Green surging to double figures, and we can have all that going on and STILL Change UK can't get any traction!

    The are a group lacking any character or passion who represent something each of the other parties dislike.

    They’re not traditional, they’re not for the working class, they’re not democratic, they don’t want to leave the EU, and they’re not Green, and despite their name, they don’t want to change anything except the clock back three years to Cameroon/Blairism.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,827
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > Looking at the polling, it seems that a lot of voters have decided they don’t support Jeremy Corbyn’s nostalgic, Bennite Socialist vision for the UK after all; or maybe millions backed Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory hard Brexit. Hmmmm.

    I think it's more that it's a Euro-election and people are aligning with either hard Remain or hard Brexit, at the expense of more pragmatic/moderate/evasive (take your pick) parties. I met quite a lot of people in the locals who said they'd be glad to vote Labour for those and for a GE, but for the Euros they wanted to send a Remain message.

    Anecdata: my long-standing friend who usually votes Tory (and once voted BNP in the Euros) is having doubts about Brexit and plans to vote Green on the basis that he likes the environment and they are anti-Brexit but "not as obsessive about it as the LibDems".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631

    > @isam said:

    > Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.

    >

    > Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.

    >

    > Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.



    I have always supported PR, but the major parties oppose it for obvious reasons. They would also apply if a BAME party was surging.

    Yes, although PR picks up a lot of fairweather supporters around election time and would probably have a lot more if those if a 'nice' party lost out. Conversely some would find they no longer like it if it undermined a bad party.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,564
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > Graham Brady has done nothing really to offend me, but why does he have such a "punchable" face? And I am a Tory!

    The Germans have a word for it, as they always do. Backpfeifengesicht, a face that cries out for a slap.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,828

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.



    The length of the extension offered will be determined by EU timetables, not UK ones. I'd therefore expect the next extension to run up to the end of the EU budget period (end 2020), with a commitment from the UK to hold a general election or referendum within that time period to attempt to break the political impasse.

    Yes, that might make sense. Could a UK government commit to either given the Parliamentary arithmetic and the FTPA, though?

    The EU might well want the UK committed to a new budget cycle. It would have an impact on any new negotiations and the settlement figure.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,948
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > Looking at the polling, it seems that a lot of voters have decided they don’t support Jeremy Corbyn’s nostalgic, Bennite Socialist vision for the UK after all; or maybe millions backed Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory hard Brexit. Hmmmm.
    >
    > I think it's more that it's a Euro-election and people are aligning with either hard Remain or hard Brexit, at the expense of more pragmatic/moderate/evasive (take your pick) parties. I met quite a lot of people in the locals who said they'd be glad to vote Labour for those and for a GE, but for the Euros they wanted to send a Remain message.
    >
    > Anecdata: my long-standing friend who usually votes Tory (and once voted BNP in the Euros) is having doubts about Brexit and plans to vote Green on the basis that he likes the environment and they are anti-Brexit but "not as obsessive about it as the LibDems".

    Corbyn has got this doubly wrong. He is going against the will of his members/voters (his supposed raison d'être) and he has forgotten that oppositions are supposed to oppose the government.

    Corbyn is offering nothing to Labour voters (remain or leave) to vote Labour this time.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192

    > @isam said:

    > Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.

    >

    > Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.

    >

    > Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.



    Whatifery at its absolute best.



    And at least you finally admit the 2015 version of UKIP was nasty ... ;)



    UKIP is nasty, was always nasty, and will always be nasty. And where UKIP was, and went, so the Brexit Party will go.

    I don’t think they were nasty, obviously as I would be calling myself nasty, which I don’t think I am.

    What do you mean ‘whatifery’? It’s a fact that they got 0.15% of the representation for 12.6% of the vote. Do you think that’s objectively fair?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    The McVey pitch, from two supporters.

    Includes merging NI with income tax.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/12/esther-mcvey-can-restore-trust-party-help-us-win/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,631
    DavidL said:

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.

    >

    > I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.

    >

    > Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?

    >

    > At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.

    >

    > If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?

    >

    > Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?

    >

    > And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?

    >

    > My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.

    >

    > (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)

    >

    > Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.



    I think your recollection is right but Mike is also right to point out that a contested vote would have highlighted May's serious weaknesses as a campaigner which just might have led to second thoughts.



    The extension to date has been a complete waste of time. No one is changing their position and we still have deadlock. It is hard to see any movement until we come up against the deadline again in October. Hopefully the EU will refuse a further extension and state that we either revoke or leave. We seem completely incapable of resolving this ourselves.

    Agreed it has been a waste of time. The EU is not immune to politics and for all they say they are prepared for no deal they did bit want that either and so chose an option to kick the can and hope something would come up the same as us. Macron was the most realistic of them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254

    > @SouthamObserver said:

    > Looking at the polling, it seems that a lot of voters have decided they don’t support Jeremy Corbyn’s nostalgic, Bennite Socialist vision for the UK after all; or maybe millions backed Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory hard Brexit. Hmmmm.



    I think it's more that it's a Euro-election and people are aligning with either hard Remain or hard Brexit, at the expense of more pragmatic/moderate/evasive (take your pick) parties. I met quite a lot of people in the locals who said they'd be glad to vote Labour for those and for a GE, but for the Euros they wanted to send a Remain message.



    Anecdata: my long-standing friend who usually votes Tory (and once voted BNP in the Euros) is having doubts about Brexit and plans to vote Green on the basis that he likes the environment and they are anti-Brexit but "not as obsessive about it as the LibDems".

    It's that undetected BNP to Green swing that will win the environmentalists a swathe of seats! :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254


    To keep May in office another week.

    Come on Tom, do keep up!!
This discussion has been closed.