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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking to the coming LD leadership contest and the potential relationship with CHUK

With the local elections just gone, and the European Elections next week, we are starting to see a ‘paradigm shift’ in our political landscape. The Conservatives, are deeply fratricidal, on who should lead them after the inevitability of Theresa’s May departure, and what version of Conservatism, they should follow. Labour are similarly divided, although the chasm is between the Leadership on the one side, and the PLP and Members, on the other side, as well as the ‘Leave’ North and ‘Remain’ South, regarding Jeremy Corbyn’s approach towards Brexit. Not withstanding this, we only know that one main party leadership election, is going to take place currently this year, and that is for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats.

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,442
    edited May 14
    The relationship with CHUK will be very much determined by how successful the new party is a week on Thursday. If they only pick up one or two MEPs, as the latest polls suggest, then they will be very much supplicants. CHUK has not been helped by the LDs local election successes and the yellow closing campaign message over this next week is vote for strongest anti-Brexit party. This is resonating.

    A LD activist I know has been canvassing in a ward gained by the Greens from LAB on May 2nd and found Green supporters broadly amenable to the strongest anti-Brexit party pitch.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,640
    I'd be surprised if the relationship with CHUK was the key question that decided the leadership election; It's the kind of strategic issue where it would be wise for candidates to keep their options open, and the options are too nuanced for a clear leadership debate argument.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,640
    I don't buy the idea that LibDem members will be reluctant to pick someone inexperienced in case they end up being kingmakers or something. I think they'll want a strong media performer with a bit of energy and audacity. Accordingly, Layla Moran looks like excellent value.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740
    Dear Golden Aspie, would you mind removing some of those commas?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740
    I think it's definitely between Swinson and Moran. They're both very good. Davey isn't a bad guy, it's just that I can't see him as an inspirational figure. I disagree that Moran's inexperience rules her out. I agree that it's useful in these days of uber-politicking to have had the kind of experience that Swinson's had, but it's also true that the current political atmosphere is one that allows the less experienced to come to the fore, if they're good enough. Moran is a good value bet; longstanding members may favour Swinson, but newer members (and there's a lot of them) will probably go for Moran.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 648
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > I don't buy the idea that LibDem members will be reluctant to pick someone inexperienced in case they end up being kingmakers or something. I think they'll want a strong media performer with a bit of energy and audacity. Accordingly, Layla Moran looks like excellent value.

    The following Liberal and Lib Dem leaders had no ministerial experience:
    Charles Kennedy
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Steel
    Jo Grimond
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,583
    I think they have to go for Moran, she's more interesting and more likely to get the attention that smaller parties like the Lib Dems vitally need. Swinson would be fine as leader but it wouldn't turn many heads really.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,441
    OT the BBC news site is down, or down-ish, giving http 500 errors when attempting to reach stories.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,441
    edited May 14
    OT WhatsApp can be used to install spyware onto victims' phones simply by making a call. That is the same WhatsApp used by various groups of MPs. The "exploit" is believed to have been sold by NSO Group to foreign governments, none of which would have any interest in what our MPs are up to.
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/05/14/whatsapp_zero_day/

    Oh yes, and patch WhatsApp if you use it to talk to your family.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,441
    edited May 14
    I think the reason for the disparity in the odds is because Moran has not confirmed that she is running. If and when she does, her odds wil shorten.
    The arguments in the article put forward for Swinson are unconvincing. I'll be voting for Moran if she stands.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,441
    > @Artist said:
    > I think they have to go for Moran, she's more interesting and more likely to get the attention that smaller parties like the Lib Dems vitally need. Swinson would be fine as leader but it wouldn't turn many heads really.

    The European elections might do that anyway, whoever is leader. The LibDems' problem has been that it is no longer Britain's third or even fourth party, so broadcasters need not consider the party as part of their duty to provide balance.

    That has nothing to do with Vince Cable being old or dull, even if a "chat show Charlie" type leader might have been able to exploit other outlets.

    But a strong showing in a week or so might change the arithmetic. Trouble is, even if so, a tie-up with Chuk might mean the TIGgers eclipse the LibDems on telly and it is back to square one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    edited May 14
    Relations with CHUK and Green parties will just be one of many considerations of the fallout from Brexit for a new leader to deal with. Personally, I would see this working in a way similar to the Oxford shore Locals, with some seats being uncontested by the others, rather than a formal electoral alliance

    Incidentally both the CHUK MEPs at present sit with the EPP, not ALDE like the LDs.

    I too will most likely for Moran, who has a fresh natural media style, though she will need experienced support.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    Incidentally, a good header from the Golden Aspie,

    And an interesting contribution on the previous thread from another rate poster, which has the bones of a Dehondt thread to keep us going while awaiting TSEs AV magnum opus:

    > @ah009 said:
    > Inspired by some earlier posts, I did a Monte Carlo simulation of the SE region given the national Europe polling figures, to try to work out the boundaries for gaining an extra seat. I'm in a bit of a tired fug to be honest, so I won't swear by these figures, but after 100,000 iterations, a clear pattern is apparent.
    >
    > In a ten-seat region like this, the boundaries are approx:
    > 0% = 0 seats
    > 7.4% = 1 seat
    > 14.9% = 2 seats
    > 22.2% = 3 seats
    > 29.2% = 4 seats
    > 36.9% = 5 seats
    >
    > I've no doubt these figures would look very different if the field size was different. Half the seats on 37% is a good indicator that those who say that this system is as close to FPTP as it is to "proper" PR have a point.
    >
    > It has also brought to my attention the notion (perhaps this was obvious to others) that the smaller parties like the Greens and the Conservatives can really affect how many seats the larger parties like Labour can get. Without even changing the larger party percentages, if you had CON 12% UKP 6%, that's one seat between them. But if you have CON 9% UKP 9%, that's two seats. That seat is most likely to be plucked from BP or LAB. The uncertainty increases with vote share, so BP votes could end up being worth less than Ukip ones, and Labour worth less than Green or Lib Dem.
    >
    > If I were a CON voter thinking of defecting to BP for Brexit reasons, this analysis tells me I might be better off going Ukip instead.
    >
    > But I'm not, so others can decide that for themselves. And, of course, I'm using British/UK polling figures, not South East ones. So caveat lector.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    An interesting article, although I detect a touch of wishful thinking in the unqualified endorsement of Swinson (as well as too many commas).

    That said I think Moran will be lucky to come unscathed through a leadership election given her - ahem - interesting domestic life. So I agree Swinson is the most likely winner if she stands.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,441
    edited May 14
    > @Foxy said:

    >
    > And an interesting contribution on the previous thread from another rate poster, which has the bones of a Dehondt thread to keep us going while awaiting TSEs AV magnum opus:
    >
    > > @ah009 said:
    > > Inspired by some earlier posts, I did a Monte Carlo simulation of the SE region given the national Europe polling figures, to try to work out the boundaries for gaining an extra seat. I'm in a bit of a tired fug to be honest, so I won't swear by these figures, but after 100,000 iterations, a clear pattern is apparent.
    > >

    Loved the line (snipped) that: "smaller parties like the Greens and the Conservatives can really affect how many seats the larger parties like Labour can get".

    Some pro-Leave Tories might find useful the suggestion that a vote for Ukip is worth more than one for Brexit, and likewise the Greens on the other side.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816
    Unreadable and unconvincing. Sorry.

    It’s Moran’s to lose. She’s a streetfighter and Lib Dem members love streetfighters. She is also the most visibly anti-Brexit, which is the reason most newer members have joined.

    CUK are rapidly becoming an irrelevance nationally and therefore an irrelevance to the LD leadership contest. Plus it takes two to tango, and it’s become very clear that Umunna and Shuker are so convinced of their own brilliance they wouldn’t countenance talks with the Lib Dems in any event.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,431


    Is Corbyn's reign about to come to as unsatisfactory an end as GoT?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,345
    Scott_P said:



    Is Corbyn's reign about to come to as unsatisfactory an end as GoT?

    Think Wes should put his money where his mouth is and stand against him for leader.

    Won't be holding my breath...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540

    It’s Moran’s to lose. She’s a streetfighter

    Whoops.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    edited May 14
    Scott_P said:



    Is Corbyn's reign about to come to as unsatisfactory an end as GoT?

    He's surrounded by many cockups?

    Edit - if even Russell-Moyle has turned on him it surely is all up. All parties to have new leaders by October?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    F1: contemplating on the mystic nature of the universe and browsing the Monaco winner market. Currently each way is a fifth the odds for top 3.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    Thanks for the article Golden Aspie. The Lib Dems and the TIGgers don’t have time to fight each other so they need to reach an accommodation fairly quickly. Both sides are idiotic if they think they should be avoidably opening a new front when they already have two unavoidable fronts in the main parties. As OGH says, the main question is the balance of power between the two sides and the upcoming elections should help the Lib Dems there. The opportunity to double the personnel in Parliament (with the prospect of more if further possible defectors are staying in touch with former colleagues) is a substantial prize and worth quite a bit of flexibility.

    It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems offer one other thing to potential new recruits: a mass membership that is enthused. With their sudden rerelevance, a virtuous circle could be in the offing. But only if the Lib Dems work out a way to make friends not war.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,729
    > @Foxy said:
    > Incidentally both the CHUK MEPs at present sit with the EPP, not ALDE like the LDs.

    I thought that one of the sitting MEPs who had been chalked down as a defector to CHUK had recently disavowed them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540

    F1: contemplating on the mystic nature of the universe and browsing the Monaco winner market. Currently each way is a fifth the odds for top 3.

    Can you see a winner through the Merc yet?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,598
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > Unreadable and unconvincing. Sorry.
    >
    > It’s Moran’s to lose. She’s a streetfighter and Lib Dem members love streetfighters. She is also the most visibly anti-Brexit, which is the reason most newer members have joined.
    >
    > CUK are rapidly becoming an irrelevance nationally and therefore an irrelevance to the LD leadership contest. Plus it takes two to tango, and it’s become very clear that Umunna and Shuker are so convinced of their own brilliance they wouldn’t countenance talks with the Lib Dems in any event.

    Agree with much of this, especially the last paragraph, and even more the last sentence. Heidi Allen ought to try and do a deal with her local LD's but otherwise.....
    Soubry might be able to slink back to the Tories, with a large helping of humble pie, but I don't see a political future for Umunna and Shuker. At least a couple of the SDP'ers, because of the Alliance, found themselves in the Lords after their ejection from the Commons, but that option won't be open to the rest of the CUK.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,892
    Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.

    And be epically awful.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @ydoethur said:
    > It’s Moran’s to lose. She’s a streetfighter
    >
    > Whoops.

    yes, perhaps not the best descriptor!

    Though this seems to be an issue more for LD opponents rather than members.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    Thanks for the lead. But surely not written by a LibDem, not knowing the difference between AV and STV? ;) And some brushing up on the correct uses of a comma would help with the readability.

    The LibDems are in the unfortunate position of not having an obviously strong contender for the position (tbf an affliction of all the parties right now). Davey and Swinson are heavily tainted by the coalition, and neither comes across particularly well on television, both being overearnest and Davey being somewhat uninspiring. My hope remains that Moran can grow into the job, but having seen more of her on various media recently I fear she has a bigger learning curve still ahead of her than I had hoped.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    The interesting thing for me has been the collapse of the CUKs. As the thread header notes at one time they were somewhat arrogantly dismissive of the Lib Dems assuming waves of further MPs would allow them to soar past the Lib Dems making them a national force. That didn't happen and a whole series of catastrophic unforced errors followed.

    The result is that the CUKs are now a virtual party. They exist digitally but have no roots, membership, Councillors, MEPs (and they won't after the Euros either) or prospects of holding any of the seats they currently have without grass root support.

    It seems to me, with great respect to @The Golden Aspie, that Swinson's activities to date misjudge this. Basically if any of the CUKs wish to be in the next Parliament they need to apply to join the Lib Dems and get adopted as a Lib Dem candidate. And they can't leave it too long. Who knows when this most shambolic and incompetent of Parliaments will breath its last?

    A Lib Dem party that has reinvigorated its base with over 700 new Councillors and which has found its voice really doesn't need to offer terms.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Betting Post

    F1: Backed Leclerc to win in Monaco at 19 each way (fifth the odds top 3).

    He looked very good at Azerbaijan, and the most similar circuit, enormo-straight aside, is Monaco. In the last couple of seasons, Ferrari have been better than Mercedes at Monaco. If Red Bull is faster then Gasly's lacklustre performance means Verstappen will likely win but the each way aspect should still come good.

    Considered Verstappen at 5.75 (prices are with boost, on Ladbrokes). Might just go for a straight podium bet when more markets are up.

    I also sprayed some pennies about on the following long shots:
    Ricciardo, each way 901
    Sainz, each way 1751
    Perez, each way 1751

    Sainz has had at least one best of the rest finishes, and Perez got on the podium one year. Ricciardo's obviously harder to read a he previously drove for a top team but he's good on street circuits. As I said, only tiny stakes on this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    ydoethur said:

    F1: contemplating on the mystic nature of the universe and browsing the Monaco winner market. Currently each way is a fifth the odds for top 3.

    Can you see a winner through the Merc yet?
    The future is clearly written in the stars.

    The three pointed ones.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @Foxy said:
    > Relations with CHUK and Green parties will just be one of many considerations of the fallout from Brexit for a new leader to deal with. Personally, I would see this working in a way similar to the Oxford shore Locals, with some seats being uncontested by the others, rather than a formal electoral alliance
    >
    > Incidentally both the CHUK MEPs at present sit with the EPP, not ALDE like the LDs.
    >
    > I too will most likely for Moran, who has a fresh natural media style, though she will need experienced support.

    Only because they are both Tory defectors. CUK has been clear they haven’t decided which group their MEPs will sit in; that’s if they get any, of course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,329
    > @Nigelb said:
    > F1: contemplating on the mystic nature of the universe and browsing the Monaco winner market. Currently each way is a fifth the odds for top 3.
    >
    > Can you see a winner through the Merc yet?
    >
    > The future is clearly written in the stars.
    >
    > The three pointed ones.

    I agree. At the last procession the Mercs were fastest in the twisty parts of the circuit. Ferrari have to focus on Red Bull, the Mercs are out of sight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683

    Betting Post

    F1: Backed Leclerc to win in Monaco at 19 each way (fifth the odds top 3).

    He looked very good at Azerbaijan, and the most similar circuit, enormo-straight aside, is Monaco. In the last couple of seasons, Ferrari have been better than Mercedes at Monaco. If Red Bull is faster then Gasly's lacklustre performance means Verstappen will likely win but the each way aspect should still come good.

    Considered Verstappen at 5.75 (prices are with boost, on Ladbrokes). Might just go for a straight podium bet when more markets are up.

    I also sprayed some pennies about on the following long shots:
    Ricciardo, each way 901
    Sainz, each way 1751
    Perez, each way 1751

    Sainz has had at least one best of the rest finishes, and Perez got on the podium one year. Ricciardo's obviously harder to read a he previously drove for a top team but he's good on street circuits. As I said, only tiny stakes on this.

    Unless Ferrari radically transform their car’s characteristics, they could well be behind the Red Bulls at Monaco.
    The only place they are quick at the moment is in a straight line, something not in plentiful supply at Monaco.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
    >
    > And be epically awful.

    As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    edited May 14
    Foxy said:


    yes, perhaps not the best descriptor!
    Though this seems to be an issue more for LD opponents rather than members.

    In the same way Corbyn's long career of apologias for racism and murder seem for some reason not to be of interest to his defenders?

    (No, I do not think Morgan's moment of idiocy is directly comparable, but it does suggest impulsiveness and poor judgement.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683

    Thanks for the article Golden Aspie. The Lib Dems and the TIGgers don’t have time to fight each other so they need to reach an accommodation fairly quickly. Both sides are idiotic if they think they should be avoidably opening a new front when they already have two unavoidable fronts in the main parties. As OGH says, the main question is the balance of power between the two sides and the upcoming elections should help the Lib Dems there. The opportunity to double the personnel in Parliament (with the prospect of more if further possible defectors are staying in touch with former colleagues) is a substantial prize and worth quite a bit of flexibility.

    It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems offer one other thing to potential new recruits: a mass membership that is enthused. With their sudden rerelevance, a virtuous circle could be in the offing. But only if the Lib Dems work out a way to make friends not war.

    Agreed.
    Considering that pluralism is supposed to be a significant strand of both parties’ politics, it would be absurd not to reach an accommodation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    IanB2 said:

    > @MarqueeMark said:

    > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.

    >

    > And be epically awful.



    As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.

    An expertise not confined to one party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,892
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
    > >
    > > And be epically awful.
    >
    > As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.

    Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. B, it's true the Ferrari has a straight line advantage, but Leclerc looked good in Azerbaijan and whilst the straight matters it wasn't the only thing that did.

    The bet, of course, may not come off, but a couple of long shots on Bottas and Leclerc have proven good in the first quarter of this season.

    It's also possible Red Bull will be the fastest car this weekend. Verstappen's podium odds are something I'll keep an eye on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,540
    IanB2 said:

    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
    >
    > And be epically awful.
    As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.

    You May have a point...

    Have a good morning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:



    Is Corbyn's reign about to come to as unsatisfactory an end as GoT?

    He's surrounded by many cockups?

    Edit - if even Russell-Moyle has turned on him it surely is all up. All parties to have new leaders by October?
    And what chance of the replacements proving to be improvements ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683
    edited May 14

    Mr. B, it's true the Ferrari has a straight line advantage, but Leclerc looked good in Azerbaijan and whilst the straight matters it wasn't the only thing that did.

    The bet, of course, may not come off, but a couple of long shots on Bottas and Leclerc have proven good in the first quarter of this season...

    All credit for that, but I’ve learned expensively not to derive too much confidence from my betting successes....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @ydoethur said:
    > yes, perhaps not the best descriptor!
    > Though this seems to be an issue more for LD opponents rather than members.
    >
    > In the same way Corbyn's long career of apologias for racism and murder seem for some reason not to be of interest to his defenders?
    >
    > (No, I do not think Morgan's moment of idiocy is directly comparable, but it does suggest impulsiveness and poor judgement.)

    It more suggests, as the Glasgow police decided, that she felt under threat and acted in self defence, so no further action required. I don't see any reason to contest the police decision.

    Layla has a freshness bordering on naivety at times, but she is not going to be PM any time soon so doesn't need to be a political heavyweight just yet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    edited May 14
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > Thanks for the article Golden Aspie. The Lib Dems and the TIGgers don’t have time to fight each other so they need to reach an accommodation fairly quickly. Both sides are idiotic if they think they should be avoidably opening a new front when they already have two unavoidable fronts in the main parties. As OGH says, the main question is the balance of power between the two sides and the upcoming elections should help the Lib Dems there. The opportunity to double the personnel in Parliament (with the prospect of more if further possible defectors are staying in touch with former colleagues) is a substantial prize and worth quite a bit of flexibility.
    >
    > It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems offer one other thing to potential new recruits: a mass membership that is enthused. With their sudden rerelevance, a virtuous circle could be in the offing. But only if the Lib Dems work out a way to make friends not war.

    Sensible points. But the dynamic isn’t right now; it reminds me of the SDP in the pre-83 period, before that year’s GE forced some harsh lessons in the SDP’s direction. They (and any alliance) are hampered by some of their members obviously not being liberals and indeed some of the Labour ones still very hostile toward their old rivals.

    The CUK individuals seems to have brought a lot more baggage with them and found it more difficult to project a fresh new image than did the SDP nearly forty years ago.

    Perhaps there’ll be greater realism after the Euros, particularly if some of their MPs know they are now going to retire. But I think they will still hold out for a big wedge of new defectors from either Tory or Labour remainers should Brexit sink one of the larger parties. Both sides of CUK know how unhappy many of their former colleagues are.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
    > > >
    > > > And be epically awful.
    > >
    > > As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
    >
    > Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....

    Quite likely that the opposite is true. Mays Conservatives are likely to poll below the LDs in next weeks national election. It must be over a Century since that last happened.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,529
    Dr ydoethur,

    I didn't understand the reference to 'streetfighter' until I checked Wiki. Very droll. But it could be endless fun. She's turning the party in a new direction - The 'Jeremy Kyle faction'.

    She'll give as much as she gets. No backhanders from that lady.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,500
    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing for me has been the collapse of the CUKs. As the thread header notes at one time they were somewhat arrogantly dismissive of the Lib Dems assuming waves of further MPs would allow them to soar past the Lib Dems making them a national force. That didn't happen and a whole series of catastrophic unforced errors followed.



    The result is that the CUKs are now a virtual party. They exist digitally but have no roots, membership, Councillors, MEPs (and they won't after the Euros either) or prospects of holding any of the seats they currently have without grass root support.



    It seems to me, with great respect to @The Golden Aspie, that Swinson's activities to date misjudge this. Basically if any of the CUKs wish to be in the next Parliament they need to apply to join the Lib Dems and get adopted as a Lib Dem candidate. And they can't leave it too long. Who knows when this most shambolic and incompetent of Parliaments will breath its last?



    A Lib Dem party that has reinvigorated its base with over 700 new Councillors and which has found its voice really doesn't need to offer terms.

    Chukka Umunna has managed to make Vince Cable look good.

    That’s quite some achievement.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @Nigelb said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Is Corbyn's reign about to come to as unsatisfactory an end as GoT?
    >
    > He's surrounded by many cockups?
    >
    > Edit - if even Russell-Moyle has turned on him it surely is all up. All parties to have new leaders by October?
    >
    > And what chance of the replacements proving to be improvements ?

    A new Leader could well transform Labour's propects, either for the betrer or the dramatically worse!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. B, well, it's entirely possible the bet won't come off, but if something looks too long and one doesn't back it, that's irksome (still a bit miffed by the Bottas bet I didn't back because the terms changed literally as I was making it).

    And a feature of the first few races has been the market underestimating Bottas and Leclerc.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    IanB2 said:

    > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > Thanks for the article Golden Aspie. The Lib Dems and the TIGgers don’t have time to fight each other so they need to reach an accommodation fairly quickly. Both sides are idiotic if they think they should be avoidably opening a new front when they already have two unavoidable fronts in the main parties. As OGH says, the main question is the balance of power between the two sides and the upcoming elections should help the Lib Dems there. The opportunity to double the personnel in Parliament (with the prospect of more if further possible defectors are staying in touch with former colleagues) is a substantial prize and worth quite a bit of flexibility.

    >

    > It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems offer one other thing to potential new recruits: a mass membership that is enthused. With their sudden rerelevance, a virtuous circle could be in the offing. But only if the Lib Dems work out a way to make friends not war.



    Sensible points. But the dynamic isn’t right now; it reminds me of the SDP in the pre-83 period, before that year’s GE forced some harsh lessons in the SDP’s direction. They (and any alliance) are hampered by some of their members obviously not being liberals and indeed some of the Labour ones still very hostile toward their old rivals.



    The CUK individuals seems to have brought a lot more baggage with them and found it more difficult to project a fresh new image than did the SDP nearly forty years ago.



    Perhaps there’ll be greater realism after the Euros, particularly if some of their MPs know they are now going to retire. But I think they will still hold out for a big wedge of new defectors from either Tory or Labour remainers should Brexit sink one of the larger parties. Both sides of CUK know how unhappy many of their former colleagues are.

    Which is exactly why CHUK and the Lib Dems need to do the jiggy jiggy thing. CHUK have the connections to future defectors. But the Lib Dems offer potential defectors what CHUK can't - help on the ground. What exactly is holding defectors back right now? The fear of throwing away their careers. But if the Lib Dems keep rising in the polls, that fear becomes much diminished. And if they have former colleagues telling them to come in, the water's lovely, that can only help.

    The big question the Lib Dems need to consider is are they prepared for their party to be transformed at the top by incomers?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011
    > @CD13 said:
    >
    > I didn't understand the reference to 'streetfighter' until I checked Wiki. Verdroll. But it could be endless fun. She's turning the party in a new direction - The 'Jeremy Kyle faction'.
    >
    > She'll give as much as she gets. No backhanders from that lady.

    ----

    I think El Capitano underestimate how damaging it is. We will all have a lot of fun if she is elected leader.

    Foxy can correct me, but I don't believe that the police concluded that Moran was under threat. That comes from Moran's own statement about the incident.

    I mean it was a conference of the Scottish Libdems, for Chrissake. There were probably 10 people there & 5 of them were comatose.

    It is hard to conceive of a less stressful, less threatening environment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @CD13 said:
    > >
    > > I didn't understand the reference to 'streetfighter' until I checked Wiki. Verdroll. But it could be endless fun. She's turning the party in a new direction - The 'Jeremy Kyle faction'.
    > >
    > > She'll give as much as she gets. No backhanders from that lady.
    >
    > ----
    >
    > I think El Capitano underestimate how damaging it is. We will all have a lot of fun if she is elected leader.
    >
    > Foxy can correct me, but I don't believe that the police concluded that Moran was under threat. That comes from Moran's own statement about the incident.
    >
    > I mean it was a conference of the Scottish Libdems, for Chrissake. There were probably 10 people there & 5 of them were comatose.
    >
    > It is hard to conceive of a less stressful, less threatening environment.

    Her statement was agreed by her ex partner Richard.

    Sure, people will fling dirt at their political opponents, but I don't think it will be a factor in the LD leadership contest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,591
    I think Layla's chances are better than 9-4 perhaps. She's definitely a fighter.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011
    >
    > Her statement was agreed by her ex partner Richard.
    >

    Citation, please. What did the boyf agree ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    >
    > > Thanks for the article Golden Aspie. The Lib Dems and the TIGgers don’t have time to fight each other so they need to reach an accommodation fairly quickly. Both sides are idiotic if they think they should be avoidably opening a new front when they already have two unavoidable fronts in the main parties. As OGH says, the main question is the balance of power between the two sides and the upcoming elections should help the Lib Dems there. The opportunity to double the personnel in Parliament (with the prospect of more if further possible defectors are staying in touch with former colleagues) is a substantial prize and worth quite a bit of flexibility.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems offer one other thing to potential new recruits: a mass membership that is enthused. With their sudden rerelevance, a virtuous circle could be in the offing. But only if the Lib Dems work out a way to make friends not war.
    >
    >
    >
    > Sensible points. But the dynamic isn’t right now; it reminds me of the SDP in the pre-83 period, before that year’s GE forced some harsh lessons in the SDP’s direction. They (and any alliance) are hampered by some of their members obviously not being liberals and indeed some of the Labour ones still very hostile toward their old rivals.
    >
    >
    >
    > The CUK individuals seems to have brought a lot more baggage with them and found it more difficult to project a fresh new image than did the SDP nearly forty years ago.
    >
    >
    >
    > Perhaps there’ll be greater realism after the Euros, particularly if some of their MPs know they are now going to retire. But I think they will still hold out for a big wedge of new defectors from either Tory or Labour remainers should Brexit sink one of the larger parties. Both sides of CUK know how unhappy many of their former colleagues are.
    >
    > Which is exactly why CHUK and the Lib Dems need to do the jiggy jiggy thing. CHUK have the connections to future defectors. But the Lib Dems offer potential defectors what CHUK can't - help on the ground. What exactly is holding defectors back right now? The fear of throwing away their careers. But if the Lib Dems keep rising in the polls, that fear becomes much diminished. And if they have former colleagues telling them to come in, the water's lovely, that can only help.
    >
    > The big question the Lib Dems need to consider is are they prepared for their party to be transformed at the top by incomers?

    I don't think it would be transformed at the top. LD leaders are elected by the membership. Even if CHUK were all accepted into membership today, I dont think any of them likely to win any contest.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 489
    Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,996
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    >
    > >
    > > Her statement was agreed by her ex partner Richard.
    > >
    >
    > Citation, please. What did the boyf agree ?

    It is in the first paragraph of her statement:

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,564
    > @Drutt said:
    > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:
    >
    >

    The only way that design could be worse is if they used Comic Sans.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited May 14
    Drutt said:

    Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:



    It must be so deflating to be excited about doing something ‘new’ and ‘different’ then it hits you that everything you’re doing has been done before

    Their PPB was so soulless and lacking in genuine passion, everything black & white like a pretentious 80s pop video. Absolutely nailed them
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,442
    edited May 14
    I believe strongly that Moran is the only credible candidate because she will attract media attention and she's a very strong personality. I should advise that my record is absolutely appalling on LD leadership contests. I have been a member since the party's foundation in 1987 and have never voted for the winner
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited May 14

    I believe strongly that Moran is the only credible candidate because she will attract media attention and she's a very strong personality. I should advise that my record is absolutely appalling on LD leadership contests. I have been a member since the party's foundation in 1987 and have never voted for the winner

    She has the best walk on music that’s for sure
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > I don't buy the idea that LibDem members will be reluctant to pick someone inexperienced in case they end up being kingmakers or something. I think they'll want a strong media performer with a bit of energy and audacity. Accordingly, Layla Moran looks like excellent value.

    I agree. That hasn't been much of a consideration for Labour and looks like not being much of a consideration for the Tories, who have traditionally put greater emphasis on leadership ability in government more than anyone (especially when *in* government).

    Given that the Lib Dems are unlikely to end up in government at all - why would they repeat the experience of the last coalition with a far less willing partner than they had in Cameron, whether it be Corbyn and his Marxist chums, or May's ERG-endorsed successor? Much better to go down the DUP C&S route.

    The Lib Dems need someone who can get their message out there effectively. If they're that bothered about government experience, they might as well stick with Cable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    It makes sense for whoever wins the LD leadership to try and repeat the SDP-Liberal Alliance, certainly under FPTP if they want to maximise the vote for liberal and centrist Remainers
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    A worthwhile article, thanks. But it's badly in need of editing: the use of commas can be described as "somewhat unorthodox".
    I disagree strongly with one aspect. The idea that Moran's governmental inexperience is a hindrance is for the birds. It would neuter a main Labour attack, namely the coalition years. Just as Corbyn has quieted the "but Iraq" criticism, so could an outside to the coalition for the LDs. Her reputation outside the party is high among those who have heard of her.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,334
    Dadge said:

    I think it's definitely between Swinson and Moran. They're both very good. Davey isn't a bad guy, it's just that I can't see him as an inspirational figure. I disagree that Moran's inexperience rules her out. I agree that it's useful in these days of uber-politicking to have had the kind of experience that Swinson's had, but it's also true that the current political atmosphere is one that allows the less experienced to come to the fore, if they're good enough. Moran is a good value bet; longstanding members may favour Swinson, but newer members (and there's a lot of them) will probably go for Moran.

    If Swinson is the answer they are truly F****d
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    > @Drutt said:
    > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:
    >
    >

    Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011
    edited May 14
    > @Foxy said:
    >
    > It is in the first paragraph of her statement:
    >
    >

    You stated that

    "It more suggests, as the Glasgow police decided, that she felt under threat and acted in self defence,"

    So, your statement is not correct. The Glasgow police did not so decide.

    Note that even the boyf did not agree she was "under threat". The boyf agreed that she "felt threatened". That is rather different.

    I suspect, if Layla becomes leader, we may hear from the boyf himself, whom some LibDems seem anxious to libel as an abuser.

    Seriously, if you lose you temper and slap someone over a lost computer cable at a conf of the Scottish LibDems, then you don't have the temperament to be leader.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    HYUFD said:

    > @Drutt said:

    > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:

    >

    >





    Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
    It's not the worst thing we've seen on the side of a political bus in recent years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
    > > > >
    > > > > And be epically awful.
    > > >
    > > > As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
    > >
    > > Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....
    >
    > Quite likely that the opposite is true. Mays Conservatives are likely to poll below the LDs in next weeks national election. It must be over a Century since that last happened.

    It will also be only the second time in a century a party to the right of the Tories has won a national poll if the Brexit Party follow UKIP's success in 2014 and top the poll
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,878
    Moran is a good speaker and would fire up the base. The slapping business is inconsequential. It was a minor domestic that was sensibly resolved. Less sure about the rest of her CV though.

    Can't see what's wrong with Davey myself. Apart from being less glam than the other two he seems to have excellent credentials. Is he too right wing for the base? Don't see that would do much harm with the broader electorate.

    I expect it will be Swinson, who appears a safe enough choice.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,414
    Dadge said:

    I think it's definitely between Swinson and Moran. They're both very good. Davey isn't a bad guy, it's just that I can't see him as an inspirational figure. I disagree that Moran's inexperience rules her out. I agree that it's useful in these days of uber-politicking to have had the kind of experience that Swinson's had, but it's also true that the current political atmosphere is one that allows the less experienced to come to the fore, if they're good enough. Moran is a good value bet; longstanding members may favour Swinson, but newer members (and there's a lot of them) will probably go for Moran.

    You think Moran can beat up the Tories?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,078
    In which Nigel Farage objects to being asked questions that he doesn't want to answer:
    https://t.co/GvyJpCUZO8
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited May 14
    .
    HYUFD said:

    > @Foxy said:

    > > @MarqueeMark said:

    > > > @IanB2 said:

    > > > > @MarqueeMark said:

    > > > > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.

    > > > >

    > > > > And be epically awful.

    > > >

    > > > As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.

    > >

    > > Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....

    >

    > Quite likely that the opposite is true. Mays Conservatives are likely to poll below the LDs in next weeks national election. It must be over a Century since that last happened.



    It will also be only the second time in a century a party to the right of the Tories has won a national poll if the Brexit Party follow UKIP's success in 2014 and top the poll

    Both led by that unpopular failure, ‘toxic’ Farage
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Meeks, it's all the rage (see Trump/Corbyn).

    May's more old-fashioned, though. She just says things that might or might not be related to the question she was asked.

    "Would you like a starter with that?"

    "I'm committed to starters, but not at any price. This is a good starter for Britain. And I never said no starter was better than a bad starter."
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,529
    Dr Fox,

    I suspect the GBH on her boyfriend will do her no harm at all.

    Had she been male and slapped a girlfriend, it would be career-ending, but this way round, it is probably a plus. Gutsy, determined, and won't back down. A master stroke of PR. Can you arrange for her to eat a hamster?
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited May 14

    In which Nigel Farage objects to being asked questions that he doesn't want to answer:
    https://t.co/GvyJpCUZO8

    No doubt if he’d slapped his missus about that would be ok, as long as he released a statement saying she was alright with it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    edited May 14
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @Drutt said:
    >
    > > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
    >
    > It's not the worst thing we've seen on the side of a political bus in recent years.

    At least that caught the eye.

    Say what you like about Cummings and Farage, they know how to run a campaign and sell a message unlike CUK at the moment it seems
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254
    Davey is 8 on BF. Yet Brake is 5.

    Small market. £10K so far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    edited May 14
    > @isam said:
    > .> @Foxy said:
    >
    > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    >
    > > > > @IanB2 said:
    >
    > > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    >
    > > > > > Prediction: Moran will stand. And win.
    >
    > > > > >
    >
    > > > > > And be epically awful.
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > > > > As a Tory I guess we should take note of your party’s expertise in the matter.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Moran will make May look like a political titan in comparison.....
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Quite likely that the opposite is true. Mays Conservatives are likely to poll below the LDs in next weeks national election. It must be over a Century since that last happened.
    >
    >
    >
    > It will also be only the second time in a century a party to the right of the Tories has won a national poll if the Brexit Party follow UKIP's success in 2014 and top the poll
    >
    > Both led by that unpopular failure, ‘toxic’ Farage

    About a third of the electorate would happily vote for Farage, he will have trouble getting above that but with the Remain parties divided and the Tories in chaos that suits him for now
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,584
    Mr. Isam, quite.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,414
    Foxy said:

    > @YBarddCwsc said:

    >

    > >

    > > Her statement was agreed by her ex partner Richard.

    > >

    >

    > Citation, please. What did the boyf agree ?



    It is in the first paragraph of her statement:



    “Permission to share our story” sounds like a very precise wording.

    It is NOT an endorsement ... but is intended to sound like one

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,254

    HYUFD said:

    > @Drutt said:

    > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:

    >

    >





    Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
    It's not the worst thing we've seen on the side of a political bus in recent years.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,909
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @Drutt said:
    >
    > > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
    >
    > It's not the worst thing we've seen on the side of a political bus in recent years.

    No but it invariably gets linked to it and does not help their messaging - they seem destined to make poor choices handing the field to the LDs.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011
    > @Charles said:
    >
    > “Permission to share our story” sounds like a very precise wording.
    >
    > It is NOT an endorsement ... but is intended to sound like one

    As in all things, it would be interesting to hear the other side of this "shared" story.

    And I suspect, if Layla becomes leader, we will.

    The matter itself is relatively inconsequential, but it does not suggest a good temperament for the cauldron of politics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,683

    > @Foxy said:

    >

    > It is in the first paragraph of her statement:

    >

    >





    You stated that



    "It more suggests, as the Glasgow police decided, that she felt under threat and acted in self defence,"



    So, your statement is not correct. The Glasgow police did not so decide.



    Note that even the boyf did not agree she was "under threat". The boyf agreed that she "felt threatened". That is rather different.



    I suspect, if Layla becomes leader, we may hear from the boyf himself, whom some LibDems seem anxious to libel as an abuser.



    Seriously, if you lose you temper and slap someone over a lost computer cable at a conf of the Scottish LibDems, then you don't have the temperament to be leader.
    Trying to make an issue of something the two parties involved in have agreed to draw a line under is hardly a good faith criticism.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,414

    HYUFD said:

    > @Drutt said:

    > Talking of getting on board; ding ding. Here comes the CUK bus:

    >

    >





    Looks like a barcode on the left and the writing devoid of colour
    It's not the worst thing we've seen on the side of a political bus in recent years.
    More like a zebra crossing

    They are going to be walked all over

    (I’ll get my coat)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,574
    Yougov has a CUK-LD-Green pro Remain ticket getting 26 to 30% in the European Parliament elections depending on whether CUK, LD or Green candidates stand.

    Although the Brexit Party would still narrowly lead on 32 to 34% in each scenario

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/10/how-might-green-lib-dem-change-uk-pact-have-done-e
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011
    > @Nigelb said:
    >
    > Trying to make an issue of something the two parties involved in have agreed to draw a line under is hardly a good faith criticism.

    That's politics. Your life is under scrutiny.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,259
    I know Biden has a massive poll lead at the moment but he keeps saying things that are going to really piss off Dem primary voters.

    I'm getting nervous about my green next to his name, I may cash out.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited May 14
    Nigelb said:

    > @Foxy said:

    >

    > It is in the first paragraph of her statement:

    >

    >





    You stated that



    "It more suggests, as the Glasgow police decided, that she felt under threat and acted in self defence,"



    So, your statement is not correct. The Glasgow police did not so decide.



    Note that even the boyf did not agree she was "under threat". The boyf agreed that she "felt threatened". That is rather different.



    I suspect, if Layla becomes leader, we may hear from the boyf himself, whom some LibDems seem anxious to libel as an abuser.



    Seriously, if you lose you temper and slap someone over a lost computer cable at a conf of the Scottish LibDems, then you don't have the temperament to be leader.
    Trying to make an issue of something the two parties involved in have agreed to draw a line under is hardly a good faith criticism.
    If a man were a serial cheat on his forgiving wife, would it be unworthy to question his moral compass if he stood for leader of a party?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,259
    Incidentally if we end up with PM Farage I'll be doubly pissed off with May and her early Election as I had taken any other most seats with Paddy Power back in 2015 at some absurd odds.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,537
    The other consideration is that on the assumption the LibDems are very likely to pick a woman, Labour wont enjoy being the only party that never has, which will put pressure on their post-Corbyn choice.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,827
    > @ydoethur said:
    > An interesting article, although I detect a touch of wishful thinking in the unqualified endorsement of Swinson (as well as too many commas).
    >
    > That said I think Moran will be lucky to come unscathed through a leadership election given her - ahem - interesting domestic life. So I agree Swinson is the most likely winner if she stands.

    I don't think the slap will be a problem, any more than Prescott thumping the egger on live TV. The proportion of the electorate who have had this level of domestic argument is probably quite high. Not sure that relations with CUK will be that important to LibDem members - the LDs will clearly be well ahead of them, so can afford to take them or leave them for now.

    Swinson is the safe choice, but whether safe choices are a good idea in the current climate is debatable. I feel mildly curious about Moran, whereas Swinson feels like old politics (as does Davey).
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011
    > @Nigelb said:
    >
    > Trying to make an issue of something the two parties involved in have agreed to draw a line under is hardly a good faith criticism.

    Also, what is often more damaging is the cover-up.

    Foxy has certainly misrepresented the "agreed" statement in his haste to exonerate Layla.

    Damian Green had to resign over a technical detail in his rebuttal.

    The porn allegations remained unproven, but it was his defence against them, when he misrepresented the truth, that did for him.

    Certainly, a statement that "Glasgow police decided she felt under threat and acted in self-defence" is straight out of the Damian Green playbook.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,442
    > @CD13 said:
    > Dr Fox,
    >
    > I suspect the GBH on her boyfriend will do her no harm at all.
    >
    > Had she been male and slapped a girlfriend, it would be career-ending, but this way round, it is probably a plus. Gutsy, determined, and won't back down. A master stroke of PR. Can you arrange for her to eat a hamster?
    >

    My wife wife, Jacky, an LD member since the party's foundation in 1987, declared that this was was a reason to vote for her.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,091
    > @isam said:
    > In which Nigel Farage objects to being asked questions that he doesn't want to answer:
    > https://t.co/GvyJpCUZO8
    >
    > No doubt if he’d slapped his missus about that would be ok, as long as he released a statement saying she was alright with it

    That maybe true but a woman slapping her husband because she felt threatened is going to lose her precisely zero votes!

    That’s the way of things , Layla Moran will come across as feisty and not to be messed with .

    It’s not like she beat him to a pulp with a cricket bat ! I like her and she comes across very well .

    The slap incident will do zero damage to her chances .
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192

    > @CD13 said:

    > Dr Fox,

    >

    > I suspect the GBH on her boyfriend will do her no harm at all.

    >

    > Had she been male and slapped a girlfriend, it would be career-ending, but this way round, it is probably a plus. Gutsy, determined, and won't back down. A master stroke of PR. Can you arrange for her to eat a hamster?

    >



    My wife wife, Jacky, an LD member since the party's foundation in 1987, declared that this was was a reason to vote for her.

    Keep your guard up!
This discussion has been closed.