I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
> @williamglenn said: > It would be Absolutely Awesome if absolutely all of them ran. A long protracted blood letting where a series of indicative votes slowly whittles down the list from massive to merely absurd is absolutely in the interests of the Conservative Party > > It would be funny if the indicative votes all failed and May had to carry on. We could all be here in 2025, still looking for someone to take the job of PM off her hands.
Layla Moran and Jo Swinson have their hands in the air, waving frantically.
> ------------------ > I don't think you were being nasty, it's a debate, and your view is one plenty of people will share either completely or in part - there's a reason that people tend to think 'good family man/woman, good family values' is a selling point. I can even see the qualities of a good parent which would be a positive thing to see . But as you note with PMs with kids it is no guarantee - I would tend to think that the kind of people who are capable of becoming PM are exceptional enough (not necessarily exceptionally good, just exceptional in being different to most people in the country) that any general benefit one might think there would be from being a parent would be eclipsed by natural political skills that are needed. <
+++++
On reflection, I think you are right, and I am wrong. Having kids is no guarantee in anyway that any leader will be more effective, or even more electable (beyond the superficial baby-kissing) than any other. Peter Mandelson was childless, for obvious reasons, but he was and is clearly a cunning and skilful politician. If only he had been leading the UK through Brexit rather than the Tories under T May!
Ah well.
My argument is therefore reduced to this much smaller point: T May herself would, I think, have benefited from being a mother, as a relatable person. For a start she would just appear more normal, but more importantly, I think motherhood might have softened her awkwardness and self consciousness, because, as a parent, you get used to looking like a geeky, sick-covered twit and therefore you are less caring of it.
AIUI T May's childlessness was a personal sadness to her, so I shall stop there.
ON topic, I reckon Raab V Johnson, V Javid or Hunt. With Cleverly as the outsider who might just. He is very good on TV and I could not say for sure whether he is Leaver or Remainer (surely an advantage)
> Andrea Leadson comes out of Alastair's rundown quite well?
>
>
> "Andrea Leadsom – one of a very select group of politicians whose reputation has been enhanced in this government. If she runs she should be a very serious candidate indeed. (27/1)"
That photo is carefully thought out. Serious statesperson with green leather furniture and Halsburys Statutes or whatever that is on the bookshelf, but also fun relatable human being with jelly babies. Implied caption: Can you imagine the maybot doing this? I bet she did it on paid for advice, and cuk should find the adviser and pay for some advice too.
Edit to add: and carefully framed so that the whole of the heartwarming photo of the kids is in shot. Masterful.
> @TGOHF said: > Gove upset the vested interests in Education - teachers and civil servants. Parents and pupils benefitted though. > > Seems like the same is required to progress Brexit.
You mean they need someone to upset the Brexiteers?
> @nico67 said: > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK. > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner. > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour.
I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time.
> @nico67 said: > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK. > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner. > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
Sarah Wollaston, of all people, is on course to own The Lifetime Achievement Award for the Most Shamefully Pointless and Self Serving Career in British Politics.
Hers is quite a record, from obvious Cameroon Remainer plant in the Leave campaign, to a sudden last minute high profile defection to Remain (clearly and painfully staged, and horribly ineffective), to a conversion to the People's Vote end of Conservatism, to actually leaving the Tory party to join a new ultra-Remain party.... which is now polling at 1%.
And once she was the bright new face of the Conservative party. Poignant.
> @williamglenn said: > > @TGOHF said: > > Gove upset the vested interests in Education - teachers and civil servants. Parents and pupils benefitted though. > > > > Seems like the same is required to progress Brexit. > > You mean they need someone to upset the Brexiteers?
He's already done that by being willing to compromise to see Brexit happen at all, the bastard.
Article of the year. Worthy of a national newspaper.
"As a general rule the able candidates are ruled out by their views on Brexit while the candidates with appropriate views on Brexit are ruled out by their ability."
Priceless.
PB is very lucky to have Alastair, Cyclefree, and David Herdson regularly writing pieces that are worthy of national newspaper comment and analysis sections.
There’s a question there about why they haven’t been picked up by wider circulation publications while the same tired, charmless, one-note opinions get rewritten in slightly different words each week by a number of “star” writers.
> Andrea Leadson comes out of Alastair's rundown quite well?
>
>
> "Andrea Leadsom – one of a very select group of politicians whose reputation has been enhanced in this government. If she runs she should be a very serious candidate indeed. (27/1)"
That photo is carefully thought out. Serious statesperson with green leather furniture and Halsburys Statutes or whatever that is on the bookshelf, but also fun relatable human being with jelly babies. Implied caption: Can you imagine the maybot doing this? I bet she did it on paid for advice, and cuk should find the adviser and pay for some advice too.
Edit to add: and carefully framed so that the whole of the heartwarming photo of the kids is in shot. Masterful.
And look, a picture of her KIDS again! And they're jelly BABIES!
> @another_richard said: > Very good. > > Now how many of the above would PBers (let alone voters) be able to recognise.
I recognise all of them! Most of them turn up in the media or on TV from time to time. Some of them have only been MPs for a few years though and as they are not exceptional I wonder how badly they will do in the leadership election!
> Andrea Leadson comes out of Alastair's rundown quite well?
>
>
> "Andrea Leadsom – one of a very select group of politicians whose reputation has been enhanced in this government. If she runs she should be a very serious candidate indeed. (27/1)"
That photo is carefully thought out. Serious statesperson with green leather furniture and Halsburys Statutes or whatever that is on the bookshelf, but also fun relatable human being with jelly babies. Implied caption: Can you imagine the maybot doing this? I bet she did it on paid for advice, and cuk should find the adviser and pay for some advice too.
Edit to add: and carefully framed so that the whole of the heartwarming photo of the kids is in shot. Masterful.
And look, a picture of her KIDS again! And they're jelly BABIES!
Article of the year. Worthy of a national newspaper.
"As a general rule the able candidates are ruled out by their views on Brexit while the candidates with appropriate views on Brexit are ruled out by their ability."
Priceless.
PB is very lucky to have Alastair, Cyclefree, and David Herdson regularly writing pieces that are worthy of national newspaper comment and analysis sections.
There’s a question there about why they haven’t been picked up by wider circulation publications while the same tired, charmless, one-note opinions get rewritten in slightly different words each week by a number of “star” writers.
Alot of them aren't written in the style of articles, so wouldn't be appropriate.
- “... a further awkward question, however: if she is not up to being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, why does she think she is up to being Scotland’s First Minister? She had better have a clear answer.“
Still waiting on that front.
Because it’s a more contained role with less complexity?
One of the finest articles I have ever read on such a subject. I might be misremebering, but the year Plato won Poster Of The Year, I think Antifrank came second by one vote. I fully intended to vote for him, but never got round to it. History could have been changed.
Super to have an analysis so lacking in cynicism and world weariness and so full of stars. But this is the party that felt able to decline Kenneth Clarke as leader (he would still be 50 lengths ahead of this field in a 5 furlong sprint).
Wonder whether the merits of Geoffrey Cox and the chances of JRM are being slightly under rated and Andrea Leadsom over rated. Agree that Rory Stewart, decent though he is, is out of it.16/1 is nowhere close.
I hate to say this, but in a time where every single Conservative MP seems to be actively [redacted][redacted][redacted] like a total [redacted][veryrudeword][redacted] absolute [redacted], this is the only thing I've seen in a long time that's actually made me think *better* of one. I thought it was a nice human touch.
And it is not on the bookshelves. Bear in mind that I am in hospital following a hip replacement, and crammed to the gills with slow release hillbilly heroin.
But note how the photo is cropped. Far too much left in on the rhs (most people would get rid of the radiator) so that the family snap is intact, whereas she is ruthless about losing the top third of the dreary watercolour behind her.
I hate to say this, but in a time where every single Conservative MP seems to be actively [redacted][redacted][redacted] like a total [redacted][veryrudeword][redacted] absolute [redacted], this is the only thing I've seen in a long time that's actually made me think *better* of one. I thought it was a nice human touch.
She does come over as quite human but also quite businesslike. She reminds me a bit of Deborah Meaden from Dragon's Den.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @nico67 said: > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK. > > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner. > > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK. > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour. > > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time. > >
Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually .
Not this time. After a euro election meltdown (inevitable) the Tories will finally move. They are facing complete extinction. There will be a rebellion, and Theresa will be turfed out.
Luckily for them they are not tied to the whims of a £3 mass membership of total nutters and Trots.
> @nico67 said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK. > > > > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner. > > > > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK. > > > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour. > > > > > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time. > > > > > > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually . > >
MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting!
Seriously do newspaper editors really just have utter contempt for everyone who reads their crap? Tories plotting to topple May imminently is not a front page headline anymore, it has been reported so many times for the better part of a year. Sure, it will become true at some point, but do they think people don't remember they reported very similar things many many times.
I reckon this is a low turnout election. The question is which side is best at GOTV.
Granted its not the sermon on the mount, but that just looks like quite a big crowd taken from really far away. Once you've comfortably got everyone in, you don't really need to retreat another 500 yards.
> @TGOHF said: > Gove upset the vested interests in Education - teachers and civil servants. Parents and pupils benefitted though. >
Parents and pupils did not benefit from the shortage of school places Gove left behind, but it is not just in education where Gove did not listen to the experts, of whom he had already had enough.
"[David Cameron] told me that a key U-turn on the legal aid cuts was sparked by a conversation with a solicitor who came to his surgery and set out the problems with the dual-contract arrangements for criminal solicitors. When Cameron heard these arguments, he asked Michael Gove, then Justice Secretary, to change the system."
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > Another view of Nigel in Wales: > > > > https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1128733669747822593 > > > > > > I reckon this is a low turnout election. The question is which side is best at GOTV. > > Granted its not the sermon on the mount, but that just looks like quite a big crowd taken from really far away. Once you've comfortably got everyone in, you don't really need to retreat another 500 yards.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK. > > > > > > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner. > > > > > > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK. > > > > > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour. > > > > > > > > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time. > > > > > > > > > > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually . > > > > > > MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting!
-------------- Very common at lower levels of course. As for MPs, some of the CUKs will find it harder than others given their bullishness since defecting. It was a brave move to try a new party, which conveniently would to some degree avoid questions about what are sure to be many horrible comments each has said about the LDs over the years, but it was high risk. But in all honesty since the only thing we know the CUKers (all went downhill for them when the abandoned being the Tiggers) all agree on is the same thing they agree with the LDs on, a suitably contrite attitude should see a come-to-LD moment welcomed.
Might make things awkward if the LDs propped up a Corbyn government at some point though. Yeah yeah, they 'wouldn't' do that. Even if the alternative was a Tory government.
Or indeed pretty much most things. But once something is privatised if you suggest that it maybe shouldn't be you get a load of Tories screaming that you're a Socialist (like with Trains, The Post Office, Water companies etc...)
> @The_Taxman said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK. > > > > > > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner. > > > > > > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK. > > > > > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour. > > > > > > > > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time. > > > > > > > > > > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually . > > > > > > MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting!
Why would the Lib Dems accept them? What do they bring, it seems it is not votes.
> @kle4 said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176 > > Seriously do newspaper editors really just have utter contempt for everyone who reads their crap? Tories plotting to topple May imminently is not a front page headline anymore, it has been reported so many times for the better part of a year. Sure, it will become true at some point, but do they think people don't remember they reported very similar things many many times.
They are just trying to maximise Tory discomfort and help the Brexit party. You only have to read their offerings online to get the gist of their agenda. The Tory press do have contempt for their readers as they continue to peddle their shrill and ill-judged pro Brexit agenda despite it being catastrophic for their readers and the country. Its stupidity on an industrial scale. How on earth they think this is going to be settled without creating further trust issues between politicians and people I do not know. Indeed, the DT seem to want to inflame the Brexit problems with more MP expenses - it makes you wonder why the owners have such an axe to grind against British society. Maybe it is time to look for Russian influence in these matters...
> @Byronic said: > > @RobD said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176 > > > > Piss and wind < > > +++++ > > Not this time. After a euro election meltdown (inevitable) the Tories will finally move. They are facing complete extinction. There will be a rebellion, and Theresa will be turfed out. > > Luckily for them they are not tied to the whims of a £3 mass membership of total nutters and Trots.
err - certain tories on here helped get Corbyn elected.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > Another view of Nigel in Wales: > > > > https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1128733669747822593 > > > > > > I reckon this is a low turnout election. The question is which side is best at GOTV. > > Granted its not the sermon on the mount, but that just looks like quite a big crowd taken from really far away. Once you've comfortably got everyone in, you don't really need to retreat another 500 yards.
Yes, I'm not sure how unimpressed I am supposed to be at that picture. It's taken in what is a very large area, and it is not meant to be the people's vote march. Given the sorts of images all parties put out with a dozen or a few dozen people in them it seems a bit lame to zoom out on what looks to be more than that and sneer about it.
Brilliant article by Alastair. His one-sentence pen-portraits, dripping with well-justified malice, are spot-on. Bravo!
I tend to concur that Andrea Leadsom is the value. Hell, even I wouldn't immediately resign from the party if she were to become leader. You can't say that of any other plausible candidate.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK. > > > > > > > > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner. > > > > > > > > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK. > > > > > > > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour. > > > > > > > > > > > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually . > > > > > > > > > > MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting! > > Why would the Lib Dems accept them? What do they bring, it seems it is not votes.
Numbers in parliament is what they bring. We currently have a hung parliament or had you not noticed that?
> > @Byronic said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176 > > > > > > Piss and wind < > > > > +++++ > > > > Not this time. After a euro election meltdown (inevitable) the Tories will finally move. They are facing complete extinction. There will be a rebellion, and Theresa will be turfed out. > > Thank goodness that changes the parliamentary arithmetic and the vagaries of European negotiating points.
> @El_Capitano said: > As a result, education is chronically mismanaged, the wrong things are targeted and the actual opportunities that our education system offers are missed. > > Anecdata: > > In Oxfordshire, three primary schools have been Ofstedded as 'inadequate' within the last week alone. All three were LA-maintained rather than academies. There is basically no support for LA schools any more: you're on your own - and a more active LA would have spotted the issues and intervened. Yet the good academy trusts are few and far between, and being very cautious about taking on too many schools. > > I wonder if the cuts upon cuts upon cuts are finally going to break as a national story this year.
Just come back from a primary school governor meeting. For those of you who don't operate in this world, there exists in this country a network of 'teaching schools' that provide support, training, mentoring and teacher development. It's a fantastic system, operates between LA schools and academies.
You have to be an outstanding school to qualify to be a teaching school, and it's a great way to raise standards and get best practice out to failing schools. It's also a very good support network, and the great thing is that is typically a teaching school relatively local, so support, cover and training can be delivered quickly and is often community-based (amongst clusters of schools)
The government has just announced they want to cut the number of teaching schools by 90% (yes, nine-zero) and deliver the same level of service from this reduced number of 'super schools'. Academies and LA schools are gobsmacked. Essentially you are pulling the plug on a lot of capabilities built up with what are, by definition, the best schools in the country.
BTW, if any bookie is reading this - how about a market on whether the number of Conservatives standing for leader beats the number of Democrats standing for the nomination?
> @The_Taxman said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK. > > > > > > > > > > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner. > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK. > > > > > > > > > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting! > > > > Why would the Lib Dems accept them? What do they bring, it seems it is not votes. > > Numbers in parliament is what they bring. We currently have a hung parliament or had you not noticed that?
Does not change the arithmetic, the LDs did not have enough MPs to make a difference before and they do not after. Also after the next GE the CHUKs will have somewhere between zero and 1 mp. Also this would mean that standing LD candidates would have to stand aside to let the CHUK candidate replace them. Not going to happen.
Boris the boss, Cox as Deputy, Andrea as Chancellor, Penny as Home Sec, Hunt as For, Gove as Dept of Trade & Ind, Gavin back at defence, Javid as Chief Sec of Treasury. Dream Team
Boris the boss, Cox as Deputy, Andrea as Chancellor, Penny as Home Sec, Hunt as For, Gove as Dept of Trade & Ind, Gavin back at defence, Javid as Chief Sec of Treasury. Dream Team
Struggling to work out which of those suggestions is the stupidest...
> @Benpointer said: > Boris the boss, Cox as Deputy, Andrea as Chancellor, Penny as Home Sec, Hunt as For, Gove as Dept of Trade & Ind, Gavin back at defence, Javid as Chief Sec of Treasury. Dream Team > > Struggling to work out which of those suggestions is the stupidest... > > Williamson back at Defence, probably.
Boris the boss, Cox as Deputy, Andrea as Chancellor, Penny as Home Sec, Hunt as For, Gove as Dept of Trade & Ind, Gavin back at defence, Javid as Chief Sec of Treasury. Dream Team
Struggling to work out which of those suggestions is the stupidest...
Williamson back at Defence, probably.
Closely followed by Boris as boss and Andrea as Chancellor.
> @Cyclefree said: > I don’t get the praise for Andrea Leadsom. Neither particularly bright nor particularly honest and with a tendency to petulance.
I assume it is because her present job is unglamorous and (to me at least) seems unrewarding but she has tackled it without major disaster most of the time, which in this Cabinet is high praise.> @DoubleD said: > WIll low turn out favour Brexiteers or Remainers?
Hard to say. Initially I thought the latter, but BP made a bigger splash than I expected so I had reason to doubt.
But relying on anecdote as I do (I know, I know) I come across far more people who voted leave, perhaps the first time they ever voted, who now see no point, or people who are not sure which of the terrible options to pick so are not bothering, than I do ardent remainers who are sitting out what may be the major chance to say, well, bollocks to Brexit.
So I still think low turnout benefits remainers more. How could they not be more motified?
> @Cyclefree said: > I don’t get the praise for Andrea Leadsom. Neither particularly bright nor particularly honest and with a tendency to petulance.
She is a baby eating Tory, even if the picture is just jelly babies!
To my mind she would be completely out of her depth as leader or PM. Maybe that is what the people who advocate her as leader want, someone who is malleable. They can then hold her hostage and force their extreme agenda on the country....
On the mechanics of the contest, and at the risk of conjuring up demons from the deeps, it's important to note that the initial selection process by MPs is not done by AV, but by something allowing a much more Machiavellian approach. The key point is that Tory MPs don't need to say in advance who their second choice would be if their first choice gets eliminated; instead, they can wait and see which way the wind is blowing. That's crucial, because it makes a big difference.
Suppose you are one of the minority of sane Tory MPs, and it's down to the penultimate stage. There are three candidates remaining; the favourite is, say, 'B', who portrays himself as a Leaver, and you absolutely detest him. The second - the one of the three you would want to win and whom you've voted for in previous rounds, let's call her 'A' - has no chance if it comes to a vote of members, because she's sensible. The third, let's call her 'L', isn't a great choice, but now you know who the last three are, you realise she's got a better chance of beating B than A has. So you switch your vote to L, as the best Anyone But B candidate, despite preferring A. And since the Anyone But B vote amongst members is strong - voila!
Boris the boss, Cox as Deputy, Andrea as Chancellor, Penny as Home Sec, Hunt as For, Gove as Dept of Trade & Ind, Gavin back at defence, Javid as Chief Sec of Treasury. Dream Team
Struggling to work out which of those suggestions is the stupidest...
Williamson back at Defence, probably.
Closely followed by Boris as boss and Andrea as Chancellor.
> @nico67 said: > If May by a miracle sets out her timetable to leave surely Labour couldn’t keep up the charade of the talks any longer. > > It's absurd the charade has lasted this long. But I very much doubt Mays' timetable will ever see action, because she's no closer to getting support for her plans, in fact she is further away than last time, so it seems more like going through the motions to demonstrate, once she is gone, that she did try to Brexit.
> @nico67 said: > If May by a miracle sets out her timetable to leave surely Labour couldn’t keep up the charade of the talks any longer. > >
Robert Peston has seemed fairly convinced for a number of days now that Labour will collapse the talks on Thursday (albeit not sure why tomorrow specifically). On the flipside, I'm not sure anyone has accurately predicted anything about Brexit for a while now.
This is the most interesting discussion that's been on Newsnight for a long time, about reality TV. One person pointed out that documentaries used to be fly on the wall, and didn't try to "make things happen" like reality shows do.
> @Cyclefree said: > Boris the boss, Cox as Deputy, Andrea as Chancellor, Penny as Home Sec, Hunt as For, Gove as Dept of Trade & Ind, Gavin back at defence, Javid as Chief Sec of Treasury. Dream Team > > Struggling to work out which of those suggestions is the stupidest... > > Williamson back at Defence, probably. > > Closely followed by Boris as boss and Andrea as Chancellor.
> @AndyJS said: > This is the most interesting discussion that's been on Newsnight for a long time, about reality TV. One person pointed out that documentaries used to be fly on the wall, and didn't try to "make things happen" like reality shows do.
I feel like there's information missing there? They're not documentaries and are not trying to be, of course they do things differently, they are trying to do different things. Just because it has the word reality in front of the genre doesn't mean there is or ever was a committment to reflection of reality. Not all movies which say 'based on a true story' are very accurate either.
But then I've always been a snob when it comes to reality tv. I did watch an episode of Bake Off once, but that is literally it.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Brilliant article by Alastair. His one-sentence pen-portraits, dripping with well-justified malice, are spot-on. Bravo! > > I tend to concur that Andrea Leadsom is the value. Hell, even I wouldn't immediately resign from the party if she were to become leader. You can't say that of any other plausible candidate.
Well said.... Brilliant summaries.... Leadsom vs bercow bouts would be even more worthwhile.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > BTW, if any bookie is reading this - how about a market on whether the number of Conservatives standing for leader beats the number of Democrats standing for the nomination?
How would you measure> @kle4 said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176 > > Seriously do newspaper editors really just have utter contempt for everyone who reads their crap? Tories plotting to topple May imminently is not a front page headline anymore, it has been reported so many times for the better part of a year. Sure, it will become true at some point, but do they think people don't remember they reported very similar things many many times.
The Express has its weather stories, the Mail its cancer stories and the Times political infighting stories.
They are trusty standbys for when there's no proper news and they need to put something on the front page to hold the attention of their not entirely loyal readers.
Comments
More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
> https://twitter.com/PeterHoskinsTV/status/1128762810601811968
First a climate emergency, and now a telecoms emergency? I don't know if I can live in this world anymore.
> It would be Absolutely Awesome if absolutely all of them ran. A long protracted blood letting where a series of indicative votes slowly whittles down the list from massive to merely absurd is absolutely in the interests of the Conservative Party
>
> It would be funny if the indicative votes all failed and May had to carry on. We could all be here in 2025, still looking for someone to take the job of PM off her hands.
Layla Moran and Jo Swinson have their hands in the air, waving frantically.
> ------------------
> I don't think you were being nasty, it's a debate, and your view is one plenty of people will share either completely or in part - there's a reason that people tend to think 'good family man/woman, good family values' is a selling point. I can even see the qualities of a good parent which would be a positive thing to see . But as you note with PMs with kids it is no guarantee - I would tend to think that the kind of people who are capable of becoming PM are exceptional enough (not necessarily exceptionally good, just exceptional in being different to most people in the country) that any general benefit one might think there would be from being a parent would be eclipsed by natural political skills that are needed. <
+++++
On reflection, I think you are right, and I am wrong. Having kids is no guarantee in anyway that any leader will be more effective, or even more electable (beyond the superficial baby-kissing) than any other. Peter Mandelson was childless, for obvious reasons, but he was and is clearly a cunning and skilful politician. If only he had been leading the UK through Brexit rather than the Tories under T May!
Ah well.
My argument is therefore reduced to this much smaller point: T May herself would, I think, have benefited from being a mother, as a relatable person. For a start she would just appear more normal, but more importantly, I think motherhood might have softened her awkwardness and self consciousness, because, as a parent, you get used to looking like a geeky, sick-covered twit and therefore you are less caring of it.
AIUI T May's childlessness was a personal sadness to her, so I shall stop there.
ON topic, I reckon Raab V Johnson, V Javid or Hunt. With Cleverly as the outsider who might just. He is very good on TV and I could not say for sure whether he is Leaver or Remainer (surely an advantage)
Seems like the same is required to progress Brexit.
Edit to add: and carefully framed so that the whole of the heartwarming photo of the kids is in shot. Masterful.
> Gove upset the vested interests in Education - teachers and civil servants. Parents and pupils benefitted though.
>
> Seems like the same is required to progress Brexit.
You mean they need someone to upset the Brexiteers?
> I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
>
> More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
>
> I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour.
I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time.
Now how many of the above would PBers (let alone voters) be able to recognise.
> I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
>
> More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
>
> I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
Sarah Wollaston, of all people, is on course to own The Lifetime Achievement Award for the Most Shamefully Pointless and Self Serving Career in British Politics.
Hers is quite a record, from obvious Cameroon Remainer plant in the Leave campaign, to a sudden last minute high profile defection to Remain (clearly and painfully staged, and horribly ineffective), to a conversion to the People's Vote end of Conservatism, to actually leaving the Tory party to join a new ultra-Remain party.... which is now polling at 1%.
And once she was the bright new face of the Conservative party. Poignant.
> Very good.
>
> Now how many of the above would PBers (let alone voters) be able to recognise.
15 or so. Actually a few more recognised, but not sure which is which.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Gove upset the vested interests in Education - teachers and civil servants. Parents and pupils benefitted though.
> >
> > Seems like the same is required to progress Brexit.
>
> You mean they need someone to upset the Brexiteers?
He's already done that by being willing to compromise to see Brexit happen at all, the bastard.
> Very good.
>
> Now how many of the above would PBers (let alone voters) be able to recognise.
I recognise all of them! Most of them turn up in the media or on TV from time to time. Some of them have only been MPs for a few years though and as they are not exceptional I wonder how badly they will do in the leadership election!
I might be misremebering, but the year Plato won Poster Of The Year, I think Antifrank came second by one vote. I fully intended to vote for him, but never got round to it. History could have been changed.
> Very good.
>
> Now how many of the above would PBers (let alone voters) be able to recognise.
My partner recognised Johnny Mercer tonight on tv and I didn’t. Make of that what you will.
Wonder whether the merits of Geoffrey Cox and the chances of JRM are being slightly under rated and Andrea Leadsom over rated. Agree that Rory Stewart, decent though he is, is out of it.16/1 is nowhere close.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1128596887668445184
I'm sure the media will make just as much fuss in this case...
> https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1127922320813776896
>
>
>
> That photo is carefully thought out. Serious statesperson with green leather furniture...
>
> That's not green leather...
And it is not on the bookshelves. Bear in mind that I am in hospital following a hip replacement, and crammed to the gills with slow release hillbilly heroin.
But note how the photo is cropped. Far too much left in on the rhs (most people would get rid of the radiator) so that the family snap is intact, whereas she is ruthless about losing the top third of the dreary watercolour behind her.
> https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176
Piss and wind
> > @nico67 said:
> > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
> >
> > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
> >
> > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
>
> It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour.
>
>
> I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time.
>
>
Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually .
https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1128733669747822593?s=19
I reckon this is a low turnout election. The question is which side is best at GOTV.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176
>
> Piss and wind <
+++++
Not this time. After a euro election meltdown (inevitable) the Tories will finally move. They are facing complete extinction. There will be a rebellion, and Theresa will be turfed out.
Luckily for them they are not tied to the whims of a £3 mass membership of total nutters and Trots.
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
> > >
> > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
> > >
> > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
> >
> > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour.
> >
> >
> > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time.
> >
> >
>
> Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually .
>
>
MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting!
> https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1128763484970389506
Aren't all Grayling reforms by definition disastrous?
> https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176
Seriously do newspaper editors really just have utter contempt for everyone who reads their crap? Tories plotting to topple May imminently is not a front page headline anymore, it has been reported so many times for the better part of a year. Sure, it will become true at some point, but do they think people don't remember they reported very similar things many many times.
How do you spend $39,000 in a single visit to a clothes shop?
Edit: referencing this article if not clear!
https://thebulwark.com/newsletter-issue/brewsters-millions-at-the-nra/
> Gove upset the vested interests in Education - teachers and civil servants. Parents and pupils benefitted though.
>
Parents and pupils did not benefit from the shortage of school places Gove left behind, but it is not just in education where Gove did not listen to the experts, of whom he had already had enough.
"[David Cameron] told me that a key U-turn on the legal aid cuts was sparked by a conversation with a solicitor who came to his surgery and set out the problems with the dual-contract arrangements for criminal solicitors. When Cameron heard these arguments, he asked Michael Gove, then Justice Secretary, to change the system."
Isabel Hardman: Why We Get the Wrong Politicians.
> Another view of Nigel in Wales:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1128733669747822593
>
>
>
>
>
> I reckon this is a low turnout election. The question is which side is best at GOTV.
>
> Granted its not the sermon on the mount, but that just looks like quite a big crowd taken from really far away. Once you've comfortably got everyone in, you don't really need to retreat another 500 yards.
The CUKs would kill to get a crowd that big.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @The_Taxman said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
> > > >
> > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
> > > >
> > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
> > >
> > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour.
> > >
> > >
> > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually .
> >
> >
>
> MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting!
--------------
Very common at lower levels of course. As for MPs, some of the CUKs will find it harder than others given their bullishness since defecting. It was a brave move to try a new party, which conveniently would to some degree avoid questions about what are sure to be many horrible comments each has said about the LDs over the years, but it was high risk. But in all honesty since the only thing we know the CUKers (all went downhill for them when the abandoned being the Tiggers) all agree on is the same thing they agree with the LDs on, a suitably contrite attitude should see a come-to-LD moment welcomed.
Might make things awkward if the LDs propped up a Corbyn government at some point though. Yeah yeah, they 'wouldn't' do that. Even if the alternative was a Tory government.
Or had the usual customers stayed away when they heard Farage was coming?
> https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1128763484970389506
Or indeed pretty much most things. But once something is privatised if you suggest that it maybe shouldn't be you get a load of Tories screaming that you're a Socialist (like with Trains, The Post Office, Water companies etc...)
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @The_Taxman said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
> > > >
> > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
> > > >
> > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
> > >
> > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour.
> > >
> > >
> > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually .
> >
> >
>
> MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting!
Why would the Lib Dems accept them? What do they bring, it seems it is not votes.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176
>
> Seriously do newspaper editors really just have utter contempt for everyone who reads their crap? Tories plotting to topple May imminently is not a front page headline anymore, it has been reported so many times for the better part of a year. Sure, it will become true at some point, but do they think people don't remember they reported very similar things many many times.
They are just trying to maximise Tory discomfort and help the Brexit party. You only have to read their offerings online to get the gist of their agenda. The Tory press do have contempt for their readers as they continue to peddle their shrill and ill-judged pro Brexit agenda despite it being catastrophic for their readers and the country. Its stupidity on an industrial scale. How on earth they think this is going to be settled without creating further trust issues between politicians and people I do not know. Indeed, the DT seem to want to inflame the Brexit problems with more MP expenses - it makes you wonder why the owners have such an axe to grind against British society. Maybe it is time to look for Russian influence in these matters...
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176
> >
> > Piss and wind <
>
> +++++
>
> Not this time. After a euro election meltdown (inevitable) the Tories will finally move. They are facing complete extinction. There will be a rebellion, and Theresa will be turfed out.
>
> Luckily for them they are not tied to the whims of a £3 mass membership of total nutters and Trots.
err - certain tories on here helped get Corbyn elected.
oh wait, nutters, yes ..... carry on.
>
> The CUKs would kill to get a crowd that big.
Perhaps Heidi Allen should gatecrash one of his rallies and challenge him to a debate.
> Another view of Nigel in Wales:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1128733669747822593
>
>
>
>
>
> I reckon this is a low turnout election. The question is which side is best at GOTV.
>
> Granted its not the sermon on the mount, but that just looks like quite a big crowd taken from really far away. Once you've comfortably got everyone in, you don't really need to retreat another 500 yards.
Yes, I'm not sure how unimpressed I am supposed to be at that picture. It's taken in what is a very large area, and it is not meant to be the people's vote march. Given the sorts of images all parties put out with a dozen or a few dozen people in them it seems a bit lame to zoom out on what looks to be more than that and sneer about it.
I tend to concur that Andrea Leadsom is the value. Hell, even I wouldn't immediately resign from the party if she were to become leader. You can't say that of any other plausible candidate.
> https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1128701678851641346
Hardly committed
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @The_Taxman said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
> > > > >
> > > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
> > > > >
> > > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
> > > >
> > > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually .
> > >
> > >
> >
> > MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting!
>
> Why would the Lib Dems accept them? What do they bring, it seems it is not votes.
Numbers in parliament is what they bring. We currently have a hung parliament or had you not noticed that?
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176
> > >
> > > Piss and wind <
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > Not this time. After a euro election meltdown (inevitable) the Tories will finally move. They are facing complete extinction. There will be a rebellion, and Theresa will be turfed out.
> >
Thank goodness that changes the parliamentary arithmetic and the vagaries of European negotiating points.
Wait.
> As a result, education is chronically mismanaged, the wrong things are targeted and the actual opportunities that our education system offers are missed.
>
> Anecdata:
>
> In Oxfordshire, three primary schools have been Ofstedded as 'inadequate' within the last week alone. All three were LA-maintained rather than academies. There is basically no support for LA schools any more: you're on your own - and a more active LA would have spotted the issues and intervened. Yet the good academy trusts are few and far between, and being very cautious about taking on too many schools.
>
> I wonder if the cuts upon cuts upon cuts are finally going to break as a national story this year.
Just come back from a primary school governor meeting. For those of you who don't operate in this world, there exists in this country a network of 'teaching schools' that provide support, training, mentoring and teacher development. It's a fantastic system, operates between LA schools and academies.
You have to be an outstanding school to qualify to be a teaching school, and it's a great way to raise standards and get best practice out to failing schools. It's also a very good support network, and the great thing is that is typically a teaching school relatively local, so support, cover and training can be delivered quickly and is often community-based (amongst clusters of schools)
The government has just announced they want to cut the number of teaching schools by 90% (yes, nine-zero) and deliver the same level of service from this reduced number of 'super schools'. Academies and LA schools are gobsmacked. Essentially you are pulling the plug on a lot of capabilities built up with what are, by definition, the best schools in the country.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @The_Taxman said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > @The_Taxman said:
> > > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > > I suspect if there are any more resignations from the Tories they won’t be joining Change UK.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > More likely they’ll sit as independents or join the Lib Dems . Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston would have had a good chance of keeping their seats in a future election under the Lib Dem banner.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I expect they might be regretting their decision to join Change UK.
> > > > >
> > > > > It is never too late in politics to change strategy. I suspect that some Change UK MPs will be absorbed by the Lib Dems in the coming weeks. They will simply say that after co-ordinating strategy with each other in the run up to the European elections and the Peterborough by-election they have concluded that it is better to fight under one banner and maximise power against Tories and Labour.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I don't think the LD would forgo such a boost to their numbers in parliament at this time.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Do you think it’s really possible for MPs to switch twice ! The derision aimed at them will be huge . Unless the Lib Dems and Change UK join together as a whole then it’s going to be very difficult for those MPs to move individually .
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > MPs have in the past gone independent and then moved again! Given Change UK don't actually have much of a policy platform the MPs could easily switch again citing they thought it was better to work together than against each other. On the same subject look at Mark Reckless who has defected from Tory to UKIP, then UKIP to Tory and now Tory to Brexit party! He could teach Churchill about Ratting!
> >
> > Why would the Lib Dems accept them? What do they bring, it seems it is not votes.
>
> Numbers in parliament is what they bring. We currently have a hung parliament or had you not noticed that?
Does not change the arithmetic, the LDs did not have enough MPs to make a difference before and they do not after. Also after the next GE the CHUKs will have somewhere between zero and 1 mp. Also this would mean that standing LD candidates would have to stand aside to let the CHUK candidate replace them. Not going to happen.
> Looks like the Blades will be the only Yorkshire club in the EPL next season...
Yes. Middlesbrough didn't even make the playoffs.
> Boris is God and Caeser rolled into one. Long live Boris!
Have you seen the play?
The Last Temptation of Boris Johnson.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-7030109/PATRICK-MARMION-reviews-Temptation-Boris-Johnson.html
> > @DoubleD said:
> > Boris is God and Caeser rolled into one. Long live Boris!
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> Have you seen the play?
>
> The Last Temptation of Boris Johnson.
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-7030109/PATRICK-MARMION-reviews-Temptation-Boris-Johnson.html
No, but his weaknesses make him fun
Williamson back at Defence, probably.
Newsnight journalists ought to be reading this - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/21/rendering-unto-caesar/.
> Another view of Nigel in Wales:
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> https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1128733669747822593
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> I reckon this is a low turnout election. The question is which side is best at GOTV.
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> Brexit favours the prepared mind!
That's a decent size turnout for that sort of event
> Boris the boss, Cox as Deputy, Andrea as Chancellor, Penny as Home Sec, Hunt as For, Gove as Dept of Trade & Ind, Gavin back at defence, Javid as Chief Sec of Treasury. Dream Team
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> Struggling to work out which of those suggestions is the stupidest...
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> Williamson back at Defence, probably.
Gav is the Forces favourite.
> I don’t get the praise for Andrea Leadsom. Neither particularly bright nor particularly honest and with a tendency to petulance.
I assume it is because her present job is unglamorous and (to me at least) seems unrewarding but she has tackled it without major disaster most of the time, which in this Cabinet is high praise.> @DoubleD said:
> WIll low turn out favour Brexiteers or Remainers?
Hard to say. Initially I thought the latter, but BP made a bigger splash than I expected so I had reason to doubt.
But relying on anecdote as I do (I know, I know) I come across far more people who voted leave, perhaps the first time they ever voted, who now see no point, or people who are not sure which of the terrible options to pick so are not bothering, than I do ardent remainers who are sitting out what may be the major chance to say, well, bollocks to Brexit.
So I still think low turnout benefits remainers more. How could they not be more motified?
> I don’t get the praise for Andrea Leadsom. Neither particularly bright nor particularly honest and with a tendency to petulance.
She is a baby eating Tory, even if the picture is just jelly babies!
To my mind she would be completely out of her depth as leader or PM. Maybe that is what the people who advocate her as leader want, someone who is malleable. They can then hold her hostage and force their extreme agenda on the country....
Suppose you are one of the minority of sane Tory MPs, and it's down to the penultimate stage. There are three candidates remaining; the favourite is, say, 'B', who portrays himself as a Leaver, and you absolutely detest him. The second - the one of the three you would want to win and whom you've voted for in previous rounds, let's call her 'A' - has no chance if it comes to a vote of members, because she's sensible. The third, let's call her 'L', isn't a great choice, but now you know who the last three are, you realise she's got a better chance of beating B than A has. So you switch your vote to L, as the best Anyone But B candidate, despite preferring A. And since the Anyone But B vote amongst members is strong - voila!
> If May by a miracle sets out her timetable to leave surely Labour couldn’t keep up the charade of the talks any longer.
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It's absurd the charade has lasted this long. But I very much doubt Mays' timetable will ever see action, because she's no closer to getting support for her plans, in fact she is further away than last time, so it seems more like going through the motions to demonstrate, once she is gone, that she did try to Brexit.
> If May by a miracle sets out her timetable to leave surely Labour couldn’t keep up the charade of the talks any longer.
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Robert Peston has seemed fairly convinced for a number of days now that Labour will collapse the talks on Thursday (albeit not sure why tomorrow specifically). On the flipside, I'm not sure anyone has accurately predicted anything about Brexit for a while now.
> Reality TV has been vulgar and awful right from the start but we all loved watching it anyway so didn't complain.
There's fewer things less like reality than most so-called "reality TV" these days.
George Osborne?
> Boris the boss, Cox as Deputy, Andrea as Chancellor, Penny as Home Sec, Hunt as For, Gove as Dept of Trade & Ind, Gavin back at defence, Javid as Chief Sec of Treasury. Dream Team
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> Struggling to work out which of those suggestions is the stupidest...
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> Williamson back at Defence, probably.
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> Closely followed by Boris as boss and Andrea as Chancellor.
Looks like private francois has arrived on pb...
> This is the most interesting discussion that's been on Newsnight for a long time, about reality TV. One person pointed out that documentaries used to be fly on the wall, and didn't try to "make things happen" like reality shows do.
I feel like there's information missing there? They're not documentaries and are not trying to be, of course they do things differently, they are trying to do different things. Just because it has the word reality in front of the genre doesn't mean there is or ever was a committment to reflection of reality. Not all movies which say 'based on a true story' are very accurate either.
But then I've always been a snob when it comes to reality tv. I did watch an episode of Bake Off once, but that is literally it.
Good night all.
> Brilliant article by Alastair. His one-sentence pen-portraits, dripping with well-justified malice, are spot-on. Bravo!
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> I tend to concur that Andrea Leadsom is the value. Hell, even I wouldn't immediately resign from the party if she were to become leader. You can't say that of any other plausible candidate.
Well said.... Brilliant summaries.... Leadsom vs bercow bouts would be even more worthwhile.
> Nick Timothy calling for May to go too.
He can try convincing the party to pass the WA then, he must still have connections.
> BTW, if any bookie is reading this - how about a market on whether the number of Conservatives standing for leader beats the number of Democrats standing for the nomination?
How would you measure> @kle4 said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1128767550412722176
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> Seriously do newspaper editors really just have utter contempt for everyone who reads their crap? Tories plotting to topple May imminently is not a front page headline anymore, it has been reported so many times for the better part of a year. Sure, it will become true at some point, but do they think people don't remember they reported very similar things many many times.
The Express has its weather stories, the Mail its cancer stories and the Times political infighting stories.
They are trusty standbys for when there's no proper news and they need to put something on the front page to hold the attention of their not entirely loyal readers.
You have to laugh don't you. Because if you didn't...
> Reality TV has been vulgar and awful right from the start but we all loved watching it anyway so didn't complain.
Speak for yourself! I watched some of the first Big Brother, but none of it since. Mrs Foxy is a bit of a fan though.
It has always been a cruel zoo like format, the modern equivalent of going to Bedlam to laugh at the inmates.
> What about Tobias Ellwood?
Too sane and hasn’t converted to be a so called true believer in Brexit like Hunt and Javid .
I despise the born again Brexiters in the Tories. I have more time for the long-standing Brexiters even though I totally disagree with their view.
Monty and his dogs in his garden is all the reality TV I need.