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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited May 2019
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country
    >
    > Here is that "packed out" rally
    >
    > https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1128964539221987328
    >
    >
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609

    Taken from another angle

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1128752335021400064?s=20
    Plus Peterborough
    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1125831775534579715?s=20
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    HYUFD said:

    Bring rich neither guarantees getting married or being in good health though it helps afford more luxuries and a better retirement

    Hmm not so sure, what was that Peter Crouch quote...?
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/TheHeraldEditor/status/1129001304599289856

    where is the outrage? Helps control numbers and same cost as his other rallies
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    StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    > @HYUFD said:

    > > @williamglenn said:

    > > I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc.

    >

    > Wales also voted Leave and has a big Brexit Party lead in today's poll so you have to say 'England and Wales' not just England

    ------



    Ok, "Global England and Wales!", "Believe in England and Wales!", etc.



    It sounds even more silly than my version.

    Believe in Wengland.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/TheHeraldEditor/status/1129001304599289856

    Sparked outrage among whom? The paper refers to social media users, so it could just be a bunch of Reaminers. ;)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Bring rich neither guarantees getting married or being in good health though it helps afford more luxuries and a better retirement
    >
    > Hmm not so sure, what was that Peter Crouch quote...?

    Being able to bed more partners or pay for prostitutes is not the same as being married and avoiding divorce
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    @recidivist
    If "whatever is most likely to prevent Brexit" is the strict criterion, then there is a decent argument for Tory. Keep May in place and let the stalemate continue!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    HYUFD said:

    Being able to bed more partners or pay for prostitutes is not the same as being married and avoiding divorce

    He is happily married.
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    A journalist asked the 6ft 8in Peter Crouch what he would have been were he not a footballer, to which he answered: "a virgin".
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    Acting FAA admistrator and Republican congressmen blame the pilots for Boeing’s recent crashes...
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-two-faulty-boeing-jets-crash-the-trump-administration-blames-foreign-pilots/2019/05/15/e940a692-774e-11e9-b3f5-5673edf2d127_story.html

    Can’t say it does much for my confidence in the FAA.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Scott_P said:
    Seems like sage advice to me.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @viewcode said:
    > > The porn ban will be one of those things that causes muffled outrage. People will be pissed off - but who is going to march to restore free porn access? They will just blame politicians for stifling their joy. Perhaps these same politicians could destroy their remaining crumbs of support by going for a ban on car-boot sales too.....
    > >
    > > If they ban DIY, I'm hitting the (rather well constructed if somewhat unfinished) barricades. "COME AND GET ME YOU BASTARDS! I HAVE AN ALLEN KEY AND I KNOW HOW TO USE IT!
    >
    > B&Q: Democracy's Last Stand...........

    All your Homebase are belong to us.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    A> @_Anazina_ said:
    > Did SeanT write this?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1128999505649721344
    >
    >
    >
    > Seems like sage advice to me.

    A thymely reminder?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    Nigelb said:

    Acting FAA admistrator and Republican congressmen blame the pilots for Boeing’s recent crashes...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-two-faulty-boeing-jets-crash-the-trump-administration-blames-foreign-pilots/2019/05/15/e940a692-774e-11e9-b3f5-5673edf2d127_story.html



    Can’t say it does much for my confidence in the FAA.

    FAA are deep in the smelly stuff here, it was their lack of oversight and failure to effectively regulate that led to this problem in the first place.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Being able to bed more partners or pay for prostitutes is not the same as being married and avoiding divorce
    >
    > He is happily married.

    He has had at least 1 affair

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1301404/Peter-Crouch-teenage-vice-girl-new-shame-England.html
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1129001076944982016?s=21

    Five people control the destiny of the entire country? :o
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    edited May 2019
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,916
    It is good to know that in these turbulent times, when the old orders are being cast aside and being replaced with new, unknown quantities, that some things remain constant and unchanging.

    That along with warm beer, cricket, the one day of warm weather every summer, and the Archers Omnibus, we can rely on bankers to cheat consumers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48292946
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > Did SeanT write this?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1128999505649721344
    >
    >
    >
    > This is a causation correlation issue isn't it? If you are rich you live longer and also you can afford all those things. I don't think it is the trinkets that keep you alive, it is being rich.
    >
    > Spoilsport!

    I thought being married was great for men - keeps them alive longer etc - but not so good for women - doubtless on account of those pesky men hanging around the place expecting dinner etc.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    > @welshowl said:
    > A> @_Anazina_ said:
    > > Did SeanT write this?
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1128999505649721344
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Seems like sage advice to me.
    >
    > A thymely reminder?

    Anise pun, but don't get carraway or you will rue the day......
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    > @Recidivist said:
    > Sorry, but Tories 6th in Wales goes by with barely a flicker.
    >
    >
    >
    > This ought to be sensational.
    >
    >
    >
    > Strange times indeed.
    >
    > I really wish Mrs Thatcher could have lived long enough to see this.

    If she'd continued on the arc of her Euroscpticism, she'd probably think TBP were lily livered > @williamglenn said:
    > > @NorthernUprising said:
    > > Nothing wrong with having an arrow on your logo, but we did it first:
    > > http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/Registrations/PP2303
    >
    > Did the party above you on the ballot paper get an unexpected surge? :)


    The arrow has a long history in European politics, though this logo may have caused some confusion on a ballot paper (not that they were very keen on ballot papers).

    https://tinyurl.com/nltsujr
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    edited May 2019
    LOL and indeed re the Pichon Lalande just don't get @SeanT started on him not being able to tell the difference.

    I wonder what the customer's face looked like when presented with the Le Pin I would love a live cam of that moment.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1129006106741813248

    Change UK's problem at the moment is we are still in the EU.

    Ironically that is also why the Brexit Party is now doing well, if we left the EU with No Deal it might be CUK making advances rather than Farage
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    Cyclefree said:

    > @Richard_Nabavi said:

    > Did SeanT write this?

    >

    >


    This is a causation correlation issue isn't it? If you are rich you live longer and also you can afford all those things. I don't think it is the trinkets that keep you alive, it is being rich.

    >

    > Spoilsport!



    I thought being married was great for men - keeps them alive longer etc - but not so good for women - doubtless on account of those pesky men hanging around the place expecting dinner etc.
    Enough of the casual misandry. :smile:

    Some of us cook.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1129006625661100033

    Nothing has changed - except the voters ..
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,916
    Nigelb said:

    Acting FAA admistrator and Republican congressmen blame the pilots for Boeing’s recent crashes...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-two-faulty-boeing-jets-crash-the-trump-administration-blames-foreign-pilots/2019/05/15/e940a692-774e-11e9-b3f5-5673edf2d127_story.html



    Can’t say it does much for my confidence in the FAA.

    That is terrible. Whilst the final reports haven't been released into either crash, it's been clear for some time than Boeing and some in the US are trying to get their story in first: it wasn't Boeing's fault; it was the fault of the airlines and the lack of training in the foreign, non-American pilots.

    Don't get me wrong: incidents like this always have many causal factors, and the pilots' actions - especially in the case of the Ethiopian crash - will come under scrutiny. But that doesn't alter the fact that Boeing made a plane that wanted to fly into the ground and, in the case of the Indonesian crash, didn't tell pilots about it. (There is some debate about whether what they told the pilots after that was actually accurate).

    Boeing have found three important software bugs: MCAS, one to do with flight control surfaces, and a third that meant a mandatory warning light was, in fact, an option. The FAA might be better off asking what's gone wrong in Boeing's culture to allow this to happen. And they might want to examine themselves as well ...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Acting FAA admistrator and Republican congressmen blame the pilots for Boeing’s recent crashes...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-two-faulty-boeing-jets-crash-the-trump-administration-blames-foreign-pilots/2019/05/15/e940a692-774e-11e9-b3f5-5673edf2d127_story.html



    Can’t say it does much for my confidence in the FAA.

    FAA are deep in the smelly stuff here, it was their lack of oversight and failure to effectively regulate that led to this problem in the first place.
    There’s little chance the current administration are going to .... drain the swamp.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    o

    Nigelb said:

    Acting FAA admistrator and Republican congressmen blame the pilots for Boeing’s recent crashes...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-two-faulty-boeing-jets-crash-the-trump-administration-blames-foreign-pilots/2019/05/15/e940a692-774e-11e9-b3f5-5673edf2d127_story.html



    Can’t say it does much for my confidence in the FAA.

    That is terrible. Whilst the final reports haven't been released into either crash, it's been clear for some time than Boeing and some in the US are trying to get their story in first: it wasn't Boeing's fault; it was the fault of the airlines and the lack of training in the foreign, non-American pilots.

    Don't get me wrong: incidents like this always have many causal factors, and the pilots' actions - especially in the case of the Ethiopian crash - will come under scrutiny. But that doesn't alter the fact that Boeing made a plane that wanted to fly into the ground and, in the case of the Indonesian crash, didn't tell pilots about it. (There is some debate about whether what they told the pilots after that was actually accurate).

    Boeing have found three important software bugs: MCAS, one to do with flight control surfaces, and a third that meant a mandatory warning light was, in fact, an option. The FAA might be better off asking what's gone wrong in Boeing's culture to allow this to happen. And they might want to examine themselves as well ...
    No kidding.
    But in an America made great again, facts are not the currency of debate.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The next election could be between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

    England : Brexit Party vs Lib Dems
    N Ireland: DUP vs Sinn Féin
    Wales: Labour vs Plaid
    Scotland: SNP vs Ruth

    Some Union.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited May 2019
    > @TGOHF said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1129006625661100033
    >
    > Nothing has changed - except the voters ..

    Sir Graham Brady versus the PM, in the preliminary round of the World Stare Out Championships. Commentary by Barry Davies......
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > It is good to know that in these turbulent times, when the old orders are being cast aside and being replaced with new, unknown quantities, that some things remain constant and unchanging.
    >
    > That along with warm beer, cricket, the one day of warm weather every summer, and the Archers Omnibus, we can rely on bankers to cheat consumers.
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48292946

    The real question is why it has taken 6 years for the EU Commission to come to this decision when UK, Swiss and US regulators reached this point years ago.

    I can pretty much guarantee you that FX traders now will look at this and think: that's history, all the rules/procedures/training have changed and there is nothing I need learn from this.

    It's not enough to discipline banks. You have to do it when the events are still fresh in peoples' minds so that people realise that this applies to them too. 2007 was so long ago that you might as well be talking about some misbehaviour by the Assyrians.

    The FCA has just fined two banks in relation to transaction reporting failures (don't ask) from 2007 onwards. In one case, there is literally no-one left from that time still working in the bank in the relevant areas. It is very hard to get people to take as seriously as they should the lessons to be learned from this. The natural reaction is to distance yourself from bad guys. When the events in question were happening while you were still in school that distancing becomes even easier. The City has a very short memory.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1129006625661100033
    > >
    > > Nothing has changed - except the voters ..
    >
    > Sir Ian Brady versus the PM, in the preliminary round of the World Stare Out Championships. Commentary by Barry Davies......

    Unfortunate Freudian slip there?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TOPPING said:

    LOL and indeed re the Pichon Lalande just don't get @SeanT started on him not being able to tell the difference.

    I wonder what the customer's face looked like when presented with the Le Pin I would love a live cam of that moment.
    A friend of mine bought a couple of cases of the famous 1982 Le Pin for very little money on release, not really knowing much about it. He was stunned when he discovered a few years later that it was worth megabucks. (No, I didn't get to taste it!)
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    >
    > > Did SeanT write this?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1128999505649721344
    >
    >
    > This is a causation correlation issue isn't it? If you are rich you live longer and also you can afford all those things. I don't think it is the trinkets that keep you alive, it is being rich.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Spoilsport!
    >
    >
    >
    > I thought being married was great for men - keeps them alive longer etc - but not so good for women - doubtless on account of those pesky men hanging around the place expecting dinner etc.
    >
    > Enough of the casual misandry. :smile:
    >
    > Some of us cook.

    You will always be welcome here. I will provide the coffee and the chocolate.

    (My husband cooks. I garden. I did my bit when the children were growing up and I had to keep them alive. Now they cook for me. And I swan around expressing forthright opinions and arranging flowers.... :) ).
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > @TGOHF said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1129006625661100033
    > > >
    > > > Nothing has changed - except the voters ..
    > >
    > > Sir Ian Brady versus the PM, in the preliminary round of the World Stare Out Championships. Commentary by Barry Davies......
    >
    > Unfortunate Freudian slip there?

    Probably a gag too far, but I thought the writers of Big Train would approve.....
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1129001076944982016?s=21

    Did the audience of 5 or whatever then put their heads in their hands?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited May 2019
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1129006106741813248

    That's why they all refused to stand in by elections I suppose...
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,177
    I am really really struggling to find the motivation to vote next week. Yes, our Labour MEPs in the North East are genuinely good people. But they are standing on a non-platform arguing my party's non-position bullshit on Europe.

    What other options do I have? LibDem? Duplicitous shits. NoCHangeUK? Wazzocks. Are the Greens running? But I don't want to abstain - my grandfather's generation sacrificed everything to give me the ability to vote, I feel a civic duty to do so. But for whom?

    What a bloody mess - the end of the post-war political settlement.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1129009600869621761

    OK I was wrong to predict this self-penned tale of privilege, hubris then disaster would never see the light of day.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,763
    BBC confirming Boris is standing.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48299424

    Oh god...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249

    TOPPING said:

    LOL and indeed re the Pichon Lalande just don't get @SeanT started on him not being able to tell the difference.

    I wonder what the customer's face looked like when presented with the Le Pin I would love a live cam of that moment.
    A friend of mine bought a couple of cases of the famous 1982 Le Pin for very little money on release, not really knowing much about it. He was stunned when he discovered a few years later that it was worth megabucks. (No, I didn't get to taste it!)
    Some friend...or did he educate his children with it?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited May 2019
    > @StuartDickson said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > The next election could be between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
    >
    > England : Brexit Party vs Lib Dems
    > N Ireland: DUP vs Sinn Féin
    > Wales: Labour vs Plaid
    > Scotland: SNP vs Ruth
    >
    > Some Union.

    On today's polling it will be Brexit Party v Labour in Wales, some polls even have the Brexit Party second in Scotland for the European elections.

    Most GE polls still have it Tory v Labour for the GE across the UK as a whole with 1 poll Brexit Party v Labour
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1129006106741813248
    >
    > That's why they all refused to stand in by elections I suppose...

    The irony being that that's exactly what they should have done to generate momentum and get publicity.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    edited May 2019

    I am really really struggling to find the motivation to vote next week. Yes, our Labour MEPs in the North East are genuinely good people. But they are standing on a non-platform arguing my party's non-position bullshit on Europe.

    What other options do I have? LibDem? Duplicitous shits. NoCHangeUK? Wazzocks. Are the Greens running? But I don't want to abstain - my grandfather's generation sacrificed everything to give me the ability to vote, I feel a civic duty to do so. But for whom?

    What a bloody mess - the end of the post-war political settlement.

    I will be out of the country and was pondering how upset I am that I will not be able to vote (flights taking off and landing at 8am/8pm). I can't get too worked up about it although I would probably have voted Cons. As you do.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I am really really struggling to find the motivation to vote next week. Yes, our Labour MEPs in the North East are genuinely good people. But they are standing on a non-platform arguing my party's non-position bullshit on Europe.



    What other options do I have? LibDem? Duplicitous shits. NoCHangeUK? Wazzocks. Are the Greens running? But I don't want to abstain - my grandfather's generation sacrificed everything to give me the ability to vote, I feel a civic duty to do so. But for whom?



    What a bloody mess - the end of the post-war political settlement.

    Perhaps it's a mistake to look at this purely through the prism of the parties' respective positions (or non-positions) on Brexit? After all, if Brexit goes ahead soon, it's academic, but if it doesn't, then surely you'd want to have voted for the MEPs whom you consider would best represent you in the European Parliament.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > I am really really struggling to find the motivation to vote next week. Yes, our Labour MEPs in the North East are genuinely good people. But they are standing on a non-platform arguing my party's non-position bullshit on Europe.
    >
    > What other options do I have? LibDem? Duplicitous shits. NoCHangeUK? Wazzocks. Are the Greens running? But I don't want to abstain - my grandfather's generation sacrificed everything to give me the ability to vote, I feel a civic duty to do so. But for whom?
    >
    > What a bloody mess - the end of the post-war political settlement.

    I feel the same. But. Gotta vote Labour in NE. Only way of trying to keep 2 Brexit MEPs out. That is my priority, even if I will have to hold my nose. Would love to vote LD or Green, but not confident they can reach the threshold for a representative here.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2019
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country
    > >
    > > Here is that "packed out" rally
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1128964539221987328
    > >
    > >

    >

    I've repeatedly posted on here that I'm wary of taking the 'rallies' as a sign of anything very much.

    The polling is good for the Brexit Party but previously Farage has been overstated by them.

    I don't think it's a shoo-in that the BP will win. Probably 3 parties will poll in the 20's.

    And much as it may irritate Faragists to apply an 'abitrary benchmark', I think he needs to poll 30%+ to command the media narrative the following day. If he wins with, say, 27%-28% as I expect then I don't think it's going to mean very much.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,066
    > @StuartDickson said:
    > Brexit Party forms its first parliamentary group:
    >
    > https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1127501/brexit-news-latest-nigel-farage-brexit-party-welsh-assembly-mark-reckless-david-rowlands/amp

    I initially read that as "paramilitary group" and wasn't surprised.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    edited May 2019

    Perhaps it's a mistake to look at this purely through the prism of the parties' respective positions (or non-positions) on Brexit? After all, if Brexit goes ahead soon, it's academic, but if it doesn't, then surely you'd want to have voted for the MEPs whom you consider would best represent you in the European Parliament.

    Oh please. Like anyone knows what or who their MEP does or is. Mine is Syed Kamall MEP and I only know this because that is how he signs the emails I instantly delete but that's about all I do know.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    Cyclefree said:


    You will always be welcome here. I will provide the coffee and the chocolate.


    (My husband cooks. I garden. I did my bit when the children were growing up and I had to keep them alive. Now they cook for me. And I swan around expressing forthright opinions and arranging flowers.... :) ).

    Careful - next time I'm up in the Lakes I might take you up on that.

    As for domestic chores, I draw the line only at ironing. But then again, so does my wife.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country
    > > >
    > > > Here is that "packed out" rally
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1128964539221987328
    > > >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > I've repeatedly posted on here that I'm wary of taking the 'rallies' as a sign of anything very much.
    >
    > The polling is good for the Brexit Party but previously Farage has been overstated by them.
    >
    > I don't think it's a shoo-in that the BP will win. Probably 3 parties will poll in the 20's.
    >
    > And much as it may irritate Faragists to apply an 'abitrary benchmark', I think he needs to poll 30%+ to command the media narrative the following day. If he wins with, say, 27%-28% as I expect then I don't think it's going to mean very much.

    There are other images of that Merthyr rally from the other side of that bus that show hundreds of people attending. Maybe heading towards a thousand.

    In Merthyr.

    I do not want to see Farage be a force in UK politics. But posting wanky pictures to wish his appeal away ain't going to stop him.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    > @Mysticrose said:

    > > @HYUFD said:

    > > > @Scott_P said:

    > > > Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country

    > > >

    > > > Here is that "packed out" rally

    > > >

    > > >



    > > >

    > > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > I've repeatedly posted on here that I'm wary of taking the 'rallies' as a sign of anything very much.

    >

    > The polling is good for the Brexit Party but previously Farage has been overstated by them.

    >

    > I don't think it's a shoo-in that the BP will win. Probably 3 parties will poll in the 20's.

    >

    > And much as it may irritate Faragists to apply an 'abitrary benchmark', I think he needs to poll 30%+ to command the media narrative the following day. If he wins with, say, 27%-28% as I expect then I don't think it's going to mean very much.



    There are other images of that Merthyr rally from the other side of that bus that show hundreds of people attending. Maybe heading towards a thousand.



    In Merthyr.



    I do not want to see Farage be a force in UK politics. But posting wanky pictures to wish his appeal away ain't going to stop him.
    Didn’t you hear Cadwalladr? the Brexit party is finished.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    > @Nigelb said:
    > You will always be welcome here. I will provide the coffee and the chocolate.
    >
    >
    > (My husband cooks. I garden. I did my bit when the children were growing up and I had to keep them alive. Now they cook for me. And I swan around expressing forthright opinions and arranging flowers.... :) ).
    >
    > Careful - next time I'm up in the Lakes I might take you up on that.
    >
    > As for domestic chores, I draw the line only at ironing. But then again, so does my wife.

    You would be most welcome. As you would in London.

    I eliminated ironing from my life decades ago by rarely buying clothes that need ironing. There is not a shirt to be found anywhere in my wardrobe.

    There are only three domestic chores I insist on: having a well made bed (bliss!), clean bathrooms and the bins being regularly emptied.

    With children, a very messy husband, a dog and 4 cats, one must be realistic.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1129014341041369088

    Theresa May has agreed to stand down before 2022-ish? MPs wanted her out until they heard this morning that Boris still fancied the job? Nothing's changed?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    RobD said:

    > @Mysticrose said:

    > > @HYUFD said:

    > > > @Scott_P said:

    > > > Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country

    > > >

    > > > Here is that "packed out" rally

    > > >

    > > >



    > > >

    > > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > I've repeatedly posted on here that I'm wary of taking the 'rallies' as a sign of anything very much.

    >

    > The polling is good for the Brexit Party but previously Farage has been overstated by them.

    >

    > I don't think it's a shoo-in that the BP will win. Probably 3 parties will poll in the 20's.

    >

    > And much as it may irritate Faragists to apply an 'abitrary benchmark', I think he needs to poll 30%+ to command the media narrative the following day. If he wins with, say, 27%-28% as I expect then I don't think it's going to mean very much.



    There are other images of that Merthyr rally from the other side of that bus that show hundreds of people attending. Maybe heading towards a thousand.



    In Merthyr.



    I do not want to see Farage be a force in UK politics. But posting wanky pictures to wish his appeal away ain't going to stop him.
    Didn’t you hear Cadwalladr? the Brexit party is finished.
    A brand new party leading the polls and 1/10 to win a national election is clear evidence of its decline
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited May 2019
    The lack of leaks on the 1922 decision feels ominous. Curtains for May?

    Edit: Oh. Now I see the leak posted below and feel silly.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2019
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Nigelb said:
    > > You will always be welcome here. I will provide the coffee and the chocolate.
    > >
    > >
    > > (My husband cooks. I garden. I did my bit when the children were growing up and I had to keep them alive. Now they cook for me. And I swan around expressing forthright opinions and arranging flowers.... :) ).
    > >
    > > Careful - next time I'm up in the Lakes I might take you up on that.
    > >
    > > As for domestic chores, I draw the line only at ironing. But then again, so does my wife.
    >
    > You would be most welcome. As you would in London.
    >
    > I eliminated ironing from my life decades ago by rarely buying clothes that need ironing. There is not a shirt to be found anywhere in my wardrobe.
    >
    > There are only three domestic chores I insist on: having a well made bed (bliss!), clean bathrooms and the bins being regularly emptied.
    >
    > With children, a very messy husband, a dog and 4 cats, one must be realistic.

    Non-iron shirts are a thing now. Come to think of it, so are ironing services. It is the duty of the wealthy man...
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @isam said:

    >
    > A brand new party

    It isn't.

    It's UKIP Mk II. Farage's party.

    Which you know full well.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    > @RobD said:
    > > @Mysticrose said:
    >
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    >
    > > > > Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > > > > Here is that "packed out" rally
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1128964539221987328
    >
    >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I've repeatedly posted on here that I'm wary of taking the 'rallies' as a sign of anything very much.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The polling is good for the Brexit Party but previously Farage has been overstated by them.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I don't think it's a shoo-in that the BP will win. Probably 3 parties will poll in the 20's.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > And much as it may irritate Faragists to apply an 'abitrary benchmark', I think he needs to poll 30%+ to command the media narrative the following day. If he wins with, say, 27%-28% as I expect then I don't think it's going to mean very much.
    >
    >
    >
    > There are other images of that Merthyr rally from the other side of that bus that show hundreds of people attending. Maybe heading towards a thousand.
    >
    >
    >
    > In Merthyr.
    >
    >
    >
    > I do not want to see Farage be a force in UK politics. But posting wanky pictures to wish his appeal away ain't going to stop him.
    >
    > Didn’t you hear Cadwalladr? the Brexit party is finished.

    The quality of our MPs is only exceeded by that of the press.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > You will always be welcome here. I will provide the coffee and the chocolate.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > (My husband cooks. I garden. I did my bit when the children were growing up and I had to keep them alive. Now they cook for me. And I swan around expressing forthright opinions and arranging flowers.... :) ).
    > > >
    > > > Careful - next time I'm up in the Lakes I might take you up on that.
    > > >
    > > > As for domestic chores, I draw the line only at ironing. But then again, so does my wife.
    > >
    > > You would be most welcome. As you would in London.
    > >
    > > I eliminated ironing from my life decades ago by rarely buying clothes that need ironing. There is not a shirt to be found anywhere in my wardrobe.
    > >
    > > There are only three domestic chores I insist on: having a well made bed (bliss!), clean bathrooms and the bins being regularly emptied.
    > >
    > > With children, a very messy husband, a dog and 4 cats, one must be realistic.
    >
    > Non-iron shirts are a thing now. Come to think of it, so are ironing services. It is the duty of the wealthy man...

    I don't really like them as a garment, TBH. Like wearing a school uniform. All that tucking in and buttoning and unbuttoning. Tiresome.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I think that is just about the truest thing going right now.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901

    > @isam said:



    >

    > A brand new party



    It isn't.



    It's UKIP Mk II. Farage's party.



    Which you know full well.

    Ha I saw I had a notification... 1.01 landed!! 🤣
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country
    > >
    > > Here is that "packed out" rally
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1128964539221987328
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609
    >
    > Taken from another angle
    >
    > https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1128752335021400064?s=20
    > Plus Peterborough
    > https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1125831775534579715?s=20

    I doubt if Carol Catwoman is particularly reliable.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2019
    > @Recidivist said:
    > https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1129010574736728064
    >
    >
    >
    > I think that is just about the truest thing going right now.

    It's bullshit. They have nothing to do with Blair. I imagine that was written by a sad Corynite looking for a reason why people aren't as attached to Corbyn as he/she is. Anyway much to glib to be worth repeating
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    @Sean_F... that is only merely a doubt?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Sky News reporting May has refused to set s firm departure date and 1922 committee has agreed that she should just meet again with Sir Graham Brady in early June to confirm intentions at which time the Withdrawal Agreement will be put forward for the final time anyway.

    Yawn
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    > @Recidivist said:
    > https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1129010574736728064
    >
    >
    >
    > I think that is just about the truest thing going right now.

    Hm. They've been unlucky in a way. Timing and personality matters a lot. On the timing front, they had plenty of publicity for a month or two and then along came Farage to steal the limelight. On personality, if you compare the Tiggers with TBP and En Marche, they lack a central charismatic figure with a clear message.

    But I think the first problem (Farage's intervention) is bigger than the second. Apart from stealing their publicity, he's indirectly created the narrative that Remain voters need to support the LibDems to defeat him. And if we weren't contrasting Change UK with TBP, I still think most people would be impressed that a dozen MPs have managed to start a national centrist movement.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @RobD said:
    > @Sean_F... that is only merely a doubt?

    She’s won award after award (most recently she has been nominated for the Pulitzer). Personal attacks on her credibility are usually a reliable sign that the writer can be safely ignored.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312
    isn't that a really confusing billboard?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    > @RobD said:

    > @Sean_F... that is only merely a doubt?



    She’s won award after award (most recently she has been nominated for the Pulitzer). Personal attacks on her credibility are usually a reliable sign that the writer can be safely ignored.

    I think she’s wrong on this one though.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    Scott_P said:
    On the one hand it seems that shouldn’t be allowed, on the other I think drivers will just see a picture of Farage and BREXIT PARTY, those who hate him will sneer & those who like him will be reminded to vote. Bit like ‘car crash’ interviews with Marr etc
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    edited May 2019
    May gets another stay of execution.

    Surely we are all set for a Tory leadership election over the summer, with the new PM in place ahead of conference.

    The only question is whether May stays in post until then or Liddington gets the caretaker gig.

    Edit: I wrote the above before reading the LauraK tweet!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    isn't that a really confusing billboard?

    Others are clearer


  • Options
    argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1129022843436580864

    So, to get me out most quickly, it's vote against the WA. Great tactics!
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901

    > @RobD said:

    > @Sean_F... that is only merely a doubt?



    She’s won award after award (most recently she has been nominated for the Pulitzer). Personal attacks on her credibility are usually a reliable sign that the writer can be safely ignored.

    She was ahead of the curve regarding Jeremy Kyle. I love the banter between her and Arron Banks/Andy Wigmore
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,154
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers.

    It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:

    isn't that a really confusing billboard?

    Others are clearer


    Wait until they get started on the CUK candidates.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    Scott_P said:

    isn't that a really confusing billboard?

    Others are clearer


    The Farage one actually makes him look quite good.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @isam said:
    > > @RobD said:
    >
    > > @Sean_F... that is only merely a doubt?
    >
    >
    >
    > She’s won award after award (most recently she has been nominated for the Pulitzer). Personal attacks on her credibility are usually a reliable sign that the writer can be safely ignored.
    >
    > She was ahead of the curve regarding Jeremy Kyle. I love the banter between her and Arron Banks/Andy Wigmore

    She’s far from perfect. But she has a nose for a story.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Those NHS posters could backfire. To a lot of people the NHS isn’t the sacred cow “envy of the world” it’s treated as.
This discussion has been closed.