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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What is going on with the EU

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What is going on with the EU election polls?

On this week podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh discuss the EU election polls and what happens next week.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Surely not first?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    edited May 2019
    Top podcast.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
    > Surely not first?

    It only counts if you have listened to the podcast.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited May 2019
    4th like Labour?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited May 2019
    Just walked by a shop with a Brexit Party poster in one window and a UKIP one in another. Should I assume the owner want's to leave the EU?
    It is an antique dealers, which must say something.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    5th like the Blues.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Seventh like the Tories
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:

    Seventh like the Tories

    Not quite, but might as well be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Just walked by a shop with a Brexit Party poster in one window and a UKIP one in another. Should I assume the owner want's to leave the EU?

    It is an antique dealers, which must say something.

    They’re hoping to cash in once IKEA is razed to the ground for being foreign in a public place.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Not voted yet. I will go for who I think most fits the "Brexit. Yes please, but not at any cost" brief.



    And the chippy's next door so that's tea sorted.

    I don't think there is a such a party. The Tories are about to become no deal, and Labour are about to go Remain.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?

    This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    He's getting sacked in the morning.

    I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.

    A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.

    In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.

    The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”

    As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @kle4 said:
    > Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.

    I know someone who was trying to decide between the LDs and the Brexit Party. They'd ruled out everyone else and were left with those two options.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
    >
    > This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.

    There are serious questions to be asked of the Home Office and the advice given by election officials as a result of Home Office policies.

    These issues have been piling up ever since Mrs May's tenure of the Home Office.

    Co-incidence?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    He's getting sacked in the morning.



    I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.



    A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.



    In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.



    The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”



    As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.



    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94

    Rash. You want to wait for tenure before doing shit like that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
    >
    > This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.

    Don't they have same rights as UK nationals? They don't even need the special forms that EU citizens require, so not sure how the clerks will be able to tell they are Irish.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > He's getting sacked in the morning.
    >
    > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
    >
    > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
    >
    > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
    >
    > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
    >
    > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
    >
    > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94


    Jeezo, only 29? Beer bellies and tight white t shirts just don't go. He should be sacked for that outfit alone.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > He's getting sacked in the morning.
    >
    > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
    >
    > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
    >
    > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
    >
    > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
    >
    > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
    >
    > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94

    I just want to point out that it's almost always men. Men are the problem.
    I don't know why, or what to do about it, but look out for it whenever you see this kind of thing in future. 19 times out of 20 it's men doing it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    There’s a youngish woman on my commuter train with a (shock horror) political sticker on her saying “yes to Europe” with yellow stars and blue background, and a couple of leaflets with her Evening Standard.

    The rest of the commuters in the carriage are totally ignoring her though, as regular commuters are often wont to do. Make of that what you will.

    Was this woman literally being sent to Coventry?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > He's getting sacked in the morning.
    >
    > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
    >
    > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
    >
    > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
    >
    > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
    >
    > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
    >
    > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94

    Sad , I really despise the traitor talk . And it’s very dangerous rhetoric given the times we live in . I hope Cameron is proud of himself !
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    FPT - There’s a youngish woman on my commuter train with a (shock horror) political sticker on her saying “yes to Europe” with yellow stars and blue background, and a couple of leaflets with her Evening Standard.

    The rest of the commuters in the carriage are totally ignoring her though, as regular commuters are often wont to do. Make of that what you will.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    There’s a youngish woman on my commuter train with a (shock horror) political sticker on her saying “yes to Europe” with yellow stars and blue background, and a couple of leaflets with her Evening Standard.

    The rest of the commuters in the carriage are totally ignoring her though, as regular commuters are often wont to do. Make of that what you will.

    Was this woman literally being sent to Coventry?
    Woking.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    Anecdote alert.

    Just voted...hardly any names on the entire roll were crossed off. No one in the polling station, and the staff seemed shocked to see another human being. This is usually a higher than average turnout area. Can't imagine that's good for leavers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    AndyJS said:

    > @kle4 said:

    > Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.



    I know someone who was trying to decide between the LDs and the Brexit Party. They'd ruled out everyone else and were left with those two options.

    Far too much will be read into these elections.

    Not far off national graffiti.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
    >
    > This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.

    Likely to be yet more fake news.

    We've had similar stories that turned out to be false later. @thehistoryguy
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    > > Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.
    >
    > I know someone who was trying to decide between the LDs and the Brexit Party. They'd ruled out everyone else and were left with those two options.

    Hmmmm....maybe the people really don't know what they are voting for......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Do we get any official turnout numbers before Sunday?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Anecdote alert.

    Just voted...hardly any names on the entire roll were crossed off. No one in the polling station, and the staff seemed shocked to see another human being. Can't imagine that's good for leavers.

    I know several Leavers who aren’t bothering.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    "In an extraordinary development the London borough council checked the CCTV footage at their offices for 2 May, the day Kat Sellner and Moritz Valero said they handed in their forms.

    They have spent the last two days trying to persuade the council that it was their mistake that they had not received a ballot paper.

    When they arrived at the polling station on the Isle of Dogs this morning they found their name was crossed off and were put in touch with the council again who told their paperwork didn’t arrive until 16 May, two weeks after the deadline.

    In a phone call videoed by the Guardian they insisted again that was a council mistake and they would not be “silenced”. They warned they would make a freedom of information request for CCTV footage of 2 May.

    Six hours later Tower Hamlets said they had phoned them with the “good news”. They had checked the CCTV footage and agreed that it was their mistake and told them could vote."

    Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > Do we get any official turnout numbers before Sunday?

    I cant imagine it would make sense to lay on staff tonight or tomorrow just to do a verification. Surely the boxes will be locked away and verified as the first stage on Sunday?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @ah009 said:
    > "In an extraordinary development the London borough council checked the CCTV footage at their offices for 2 May, the day Kat Sellner and Moritz Valero said they handed in their forms.
    >
    > They have spent the last two days trying to persuade the council that it was their mistake that they had not received a ballot paper.
    >
    > When they arrived at the polling station on the Isle of Dogs this morning they found their name was crossed off and were put in touch with the council again who told their paperwork didn’t arrive until 16 May, two weeks after the deadline.
    >
    > In a phone call videoed by the Guardian they insisted again that was a council mistake and they would not be “silenced”. They warned they would make a freedom of information request for CCTV footage of 2 May.
    >
    > Six hours later Tower Hamlets said they had phoned them with the “good news”. They had checked the CCTV footage and agreed that it was their mistake and told them could vote."
    >
    > Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.

    Are they suffering similar issues in other EU countries then? :smiley:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    > @ah009 said:
    > "In an extraordinary development the London borough council checked the CCTV footage at their offices for 2 May, the day Kat Sellner and Moritz Valero said they handed in their forms.
    >
    > They have spent the last two days trying to persuade the council that it was their mistake that they had not received a ballot paper.
    >
    > When they arrived at the polling station on the Isle of Dogs this morning they found their name was crossed off and were put in touch with the council again who told their paperwork didn’t arrive until 16 May, two weeks after the deadline.
    >
    > In a phone call videoed by the Guardian they insisted again that was a council mistake and they would not be “silenced”. They warned they would make a freedom of information request for CCTV footage of 2 May.
    >
    > Six hours later Tower Hamlets said they had phoned them with the “good news”. They had checked the CCTV footage and agreed that it was their mistake and told them could vote."
    >
    > Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.

    There are always vast numbers of lawyers on standby in US elections for this sort of stuff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
    >
    > This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.

    They are just registered, with no special marking on the register. So, no.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    > @ah009 said:
    >
    > Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.
    -------

    The system has a huge anomaly because for people from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus, just being on the electoral roll in the UK is enough, with no need to fill in a UC1 form, even though in theory they could still be eligible to vote in another state.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Ladbrokes markets are still open on the Euros.

    Current favourites in terms of vote share bands:
    Con: 8/13 for under 10%
    Lab: 4/6 for 10-20%
    Brexit: 1/2 for 30-40%
    Lib Dem: 11/8 for 15-20% (and 6/4 for 20-25%)
    CUK: 1/4 for under 5%

    Turnout: 11/8 for 30-40% (and 2/1 for 40-50%)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    FPT
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > Since you want to dismember the UK and radically re-engineer what is left of English politics, there are other posters who could have made that point more plausibly than you.

    -------------

    Not at all. I am neither a disaffected outsider nor a reactionary. In case you missed it devolution and self determination are mainstream centrist ideas, not radical ones. You are a dinosaur.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > Anecdote alert.
    >
    > Just voted...hardly any names on the entire roll were crossed off. No one in the polling station, and the staff seemed shocked to see another human being. Can't imagine that's good for leavers.
    >
    > I know several Leavers who aren’t bothering.

    My wife (leaver) didn't bother.

    Son who didn't vote in referendum but wanted to remain didn't bother again.

    another son never votes

    Myself and one son voted - neither voted tory.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > He's getting sacked in the morning.
    > >
    > > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
    > >
    > > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
    > >
    > > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
    > >
    > > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
    > >
    > > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
    > >
    > > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
    >
    > I just want to point out that it's almost always men. Men are the problem.
    > I don't know why, or what to do about it, but look out for it whenever you see this kind of thing in future. 19 times out of 20 it's men doing it.

    Usually badly dressed men with large stomaches but I'm not sure where that takes us
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > He's getting sacked in the morning.
    >
    > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
    >
    > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
    >
    > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
    >
    > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
    >
    > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
    >
    > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94

    I saw that video. He was bloody offensive and the target of his abuse was extremely calm and polite throughout.
  • > @IanB2 said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > Do we get any official turnout numbers before Sunday?
    >
    > I cant imagine it would make sense to lay on staff tonight or tomorrow just to do a verification. Surely the boxes will be locked away and verified as the first stage on Sunday?

    Verification is being done tonight in most places then the count won't take long on Sunday and so the council can get its result in early.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
    >
    > This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.

    Not unless they are psychic. There is no way for the election official to differentiate between an Irish citizen and a UK citizen when they go to vote.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?

    They have seals, don't they?
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    > @RobD said:
    > > @Gallowgate said:
    > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
    >
    > They have seals, don't they?

    Yes, and don't forget that political parties and candidates can choose to add their own seals to ballot boxes too.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    > @nunuone said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > @kle4 said:
    > > > Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.
    > >
    > > I know someone who was trying to decide between the LDs and the Brexit Party. They'd ruled out everyone else and were left with those two options.
    >
    > Hmmmm....maybe the people really don't know what they are voting for......

    I very much doubt that is the case. Obviously, you don't know what they are voting for. But who cares about that?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    RH1992 said:

    > @RobD said:

    > > @Gallowgate said:

    > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?

    > They have seals, don't they?

    Yes, and don't forget that political parties and candidates can choose to add their own seals to ballot boxes too.

    Very interesting. Thank you.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @RobD said:
    > > @Gallowgate said:
    > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
    >
    > They have seals, don't they?

    Pfft. I could take on several at once if I was determined.
    Walruses, however, would be a different matter.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > > @RobD said:
    >
    > > > @Gallowgate said:
    >
    > > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
    >
    > > They have seals, don't they?
    >
    > Yes, and don't forget that political parties and candidates can choose to add their own seals to ballot boxes too.
    >
    > Very interesting. Thank you.

    I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    > @AndyJS said:
    >
    > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.

    The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Knowing my luck with voter percentages Brexit party will get 30.01% or 39.98% of the vote
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @Alistair said:
    > Knowing my luck with voter percentages Brexit party will get 30.01% or 39.98% of the vote

    At the risk of tempting fate, in the last EU elections I had a bet on An Independence From Europe getting under 1.5%. They got 1.49%.
  • M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    So i get the results can't be announced until 10pm Sunday when all the other countries have voted.

    But are we expecting an exit poll tonight?
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Just voted in Morley North. Although Morley & Outwood is a Leaver constituency I would expect our estate is remainy. It's full of youngish professionals. The Polling Station staff said the turnout was "rubbish".

    On a personal note, for the first time in my 59 years I've not voted for an official Conservative Party candidate. It felt quite liberating!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    > @M.Partridge said:
    > So i get the results can't be announced until 10pm Sunday when all the other countries have voted.
    >
    > But are we expecting an exit poll tonight?
    --------
    Exit polls can't be legally published until 10pm on Sunday either.

    I'm not sure about the turnout figure. It would be nice to know that at least.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    > @Alistair said:

    > Knowing my luck with voter percentages Brexit party will get 30.01% or 39.98% of the vote



    At the risk of tempting fate, in the last EU elections I had a bet on An Independence From Europe getting under 1.5%. They got 1.49%.

    I'm still furious with the West Coast states and their infatuation with Jill Stein.

    Also my greed for failing to cover off 1 to 2% fully.

    Paddy Power offered me a gift horse and I tried to steal a second.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > Do we get any official turnout numbers before Sunday?
    >
    > I cant imagine it would make sense to lay on staff tonight or tomorrow just to do a verification. Surely the boxes will be locked away and verified as the first stage on Sunday?

    Couldn't they give provisional turnout figures based on the number of ballots issued?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals

    People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    > @AndyJS said:

    >

    > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.



    The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.

    I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I’m guessing there’s going to be some ridiculous turnout differentials.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @M.Partridge said:
    > So i get the results can't be announced until 10pm Sunday when all the other countries have voted.
    >
    > But are we expecting an exit poll tonight?

    No, we're not allowed to release any information about how people might have voted until 10pm on Sunday. Not sure whether an exit poll will be released then. It has been at previous Euro elections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    ah009 said:

    > @RobD said:

    > > @Gallowgate said:

    > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?

    >

    > They have seals, don't they?



    Pfft. I could take on several at once if I was determined.

    Walruses, however, would be a different matter.

    Tsk, tsk.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    > @ah009 said:

    > "In an extraordinary development the London borough council checked the CCTV footage at their offices for 2 May, the day Kat Sellner and Moritz Valero said they handed in their forms.

    >

    > They have spent the last two days trying to persuade the council that it was their mistake that they had not received a ballot paper.

    >

    > When they arrived at the polling station on the Isle of Dogs this morning they found their name was crossed off and were put in touch with the council again who told their paperwork didn’t arrive until 16 May, two weeks after the deadline.

    >

    > In a phone call videoed by the Guardian they insisted again that was a council mistake and they would not be “silenced”. They warned they would make a freedom of information request for CCTV footage of 2 May.

    >

    > Six hours later Tower Hamlets said they had phoned them with the “good news”. They had checked the CCTV footage and agreed that it was their mistake and told them could vote."

    >

    > Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.



    There are always vast numbers of lawyers on standby in US elections for this sort of stuff.

    Yes, but they have a long and inglorious history of deliberate vote suppression.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
    > >
    > > This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
    >
    > Not unless they are psychic. There is no way for the election official to differentiate between an Irish citizen and a UK citizen when they go to vote.

    You have to state your nationality when you register to vote though. Some EU citizens have reported seeing their names crossed off the polling station register because the council says they've not filed the relevant form. It's not impossible to imagine the ERO staff at some council or other going through the register looking for people from EU countries who've not filed the form and erroneously including people stating Irish as their nationality.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    edited May 2019
    > @ydoethur said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    >
    > > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.
    >
    > The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.
    >
    > I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,

    Yes, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Nigelb said:

    > @ydoethur said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    >

    > > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.

    >

    > The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.

    >

    > I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,



    Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.

    I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals
    >
    > People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.

    -------------------

    Just voted; polling clerk said turnout was good and higher than expected here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    > @ydoethur said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    >

    > > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.

    >

    > The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.

    >

    > I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,



    Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.

    I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
    Surely ydoethur hasn’t lost all sense of porpoise ?

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @ydoethur said:
    > > @RobD said:
    >
    > > > @Gallowgate said:
    >
    > > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > They have seals, don't they?
    >
    >
    >
    > Pfft. I could take on several at once if I was determined.
    >
    > Walruses, however, would be a different matter.
    >
    > Tsk, tsk.

    Aren't the ballot boxes being sent by air to Nairobi to be held in secure areas until Sunday?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point.
  • M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    ANyone got any early indications from any of the parties of how today has/is going for them?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    > @MaxPB said:
    > Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point.

    Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    > @ydoethur said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    >

    > > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.

    >

    > The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.

    >

    > I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,



    Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.

    I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
    Surely ydoethur hasn’t lost all sense of porpoise ?

    I fear I'm just not as shark as I usually am.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2019
    The message I'm getting from people on the ground Bedford is of a turnout perhaps lower than the 37% in the local elections three weeks ago. So the polls have to be looked at in that context. Today's Ipsos had 60% saying certain to vote
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    TudorRose said:

    > @AndyJS said:

    > > @Pulpstar said:

    > > Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals

    >

    > People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.



    -------------------



    Just voted; polling clerk said turnout was good and higher than expected here.

    There was an actual queue when I voted.

    Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I'm not sure we can say for certain that Brexiteers are more motivated to vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    The message I'm getting from people on the ground Bedford is of a turnout perhaps lower than the 37% in the local elections three weeks ago. So the polls have to be looked at in that context. Today's Ipsos had 60% saying certain to vote

    About the only thing we can be sure of after the last five years is that all polls are talking bollocks.

    While I wouldn't be surprised if turnout was up on before, 60%?! Really?! That's higher than in some recent general elections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Chris said:

    > @MaxPB said:

    > Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point.



    Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though?

    I thought it was PNG, the CAR, and the Germans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Having just voted I noted that CUK and the Conservative Party were at the top of the ballot paper, so they may do a little bit better than the polls predict while The Brexit Party was right down the bottom so might do a little bit worse.

    I doubt it makes more than a fractional difference though
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    > @ydoethur said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    >
    > > > @Pulpstar said:
    >
    > > > Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals
    >
    > >
    >
    > > People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.
    >
    >
    >
    > -------------------
    >
    >
    >
    > Just voted; polling clerk said turnout was good and higher than expected here.
    >
    > There was an actual queue when I voted.
    >
    > Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock.

    Deserted when I voted - though I met a couple of people going in as I left.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2019
    > @HYUFD said:
    > Having just voted I noted that CUK and the Conservative Party were at the top of the ballot paper, so they may do a little bit better than the polls predict while The Brexit Party was right down the bottom so might do a little bit worse.
    >
    > I doubt it makes more than a fractional difference though

    As you unfold the ballot paper the eye is drawn to the Labour lib dem brexit Top of the second half of the ballot is good
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    > @ydoethur said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    >

    > > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.

    >

    > The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.

    >

    > I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,



    Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.

    I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
    Surely ydoethur hasn’t lost all sense of porpoise ?

    I fear I'm just not as shark as I usually am.
    Now you’re fishing in a different pool. A plaice we’ve visited before.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited May 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    As you unfold the ballot paper the eye is drawn to the Labour/brexit party area. Top of the second half of the ballot is good

    Mine was given to me as an A4 sheet of paper. It wasn't folded.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2019
    Just taken 8 on Betfair on the Brexit party being in the 25-30% range.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    > @ydoethur said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    >

    > > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.

    >

    > The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.

    >

    > I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,



    Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.

    I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
    Surely ydoethur hasn’t lost all sense of porpoise ?

    I fear I'm just not as shark as I usually am.
    Now you’re fishing in a different pool. A plaice we’ve visited before.

    These puns are just red herrings.

    Can we get back to the seals?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Change UK having no logo was a real misstep too - could benefit the Tories a bit as they're next down from the top
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    > @ydoethur said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    >

    > > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.

    >

    > The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.

    >

    > I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,



    Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.

    I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
    Surely ydoethur hasn’t lost all sense of porpoise ?

    I fear I'm just not as shark as I usually am.
    Now you’re fishing in a different pool. A plaice we’ve visited before.

    These puns are just red herrings.

    Can we get back to the seals?
    Fur sure.

  • M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > As you unfold the ballot paper the eye is drawn to the Labour/brexit party area. Top of the second half of the ballot is good
    >
    > Mine was given to me as an A4 sheet of paper. It wasn't folded.

    Will be different across the country in each area
  • John_McLeanJohn_McLean Posts: 71
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @ydoethur said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > >
    > > > > @Pulpstar said:
    > >
    > > > > Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > -------------------
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Just voted; polling clerk said turnout was good and higher than expected here.
    > >
    > > There was an actual queue when I voted.
    > >
    > > Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock.
    >
    > Deserted when I voted - though I met a couple of people going in as I left.
    >
    >

    I came out of the polling booth brandishing a toilet roll and recommended loudly that it might be better to wait 10 minutes before anyone went in...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    > @ydoethur said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    >

    > > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.

    >

    > The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.

    >

    > I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,



    Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.

    I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
    Surely ydoethur hasn’t lost all sense of porpoise ?

    I fear I'm just not as shark as I usually am.
    Now you’re fishing in a different pool. A plaice we’ve visited before.

    These puns are just red herrings.

    Can we get back to the seals?
    Fur sure.

    Kotick some other box with your puns.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited May 2019
    Off-topic:

    An interesting snippet in the hideous little story about Carl Beech and Operation Midland:

    <i>Yesterday, the court heard that Mr Beech told the detective that he was part of a "little group" with Labour MP Tom Watson, a Exaro News journalist called Mark Conrad, and a retired social worker, who were trying to "put my information out there to encourage other people to come forward".

    Mr Beech said he met Mr Watson in his office, where they spoke "at some length".</i>

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48384950

    Hardly surprising news, but interesting.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Tomorrow morning might be a good time for someone like Justine Greening to defect to the Lib Dems. It would capture the news cycle and disrupt any plans for May to announce her resignation.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > Just taken 8 on Betfair on the Brexit party being in the 25-30% range.

    I wanted that but didn't want to jinx it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > I'm not sure we can say for certain that Brexiteers are more motivated to vote.

    Turnout anecdotes will be useless for the Brexiteers as I reckon they're disproportionately in the postals.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Just taken 8 on Betfair on the Brexit party being in the 25-30% range.

    Sounds a decent bet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Chris said:

    > @MaxPB said:

    > Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point.



    Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though?

    One would hope. We'd get backing from India, at least.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > I'm not sure we can say for certain that Brexiteers are more motivated to vote.

    Depends, Britain First won a Waltham Abbey seat at the locals on a turnout of just 23%.

    None of the main parties were telling today at the polling station I voted at, if a lower turn out benefits anyone it could be Tommy Robinson in the North West
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @MikeSmithson said:

    "Aren't the ballot boxes being sent by air to Nairobi to be held in secure areas until Sunday?"

    ........................................................................................................................

    Ballot boxes are being sent to Spurs European trophy cabinet. It's been completely empty since we joined the Common Market and they lost the keys in 1963.
This discussion has been closed.