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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TMay finally decides to quit and the race for her successor
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Have I missed summit?
Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end.
The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that.
Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight.
> She said she is stepping down as Con Leader on Jun 7, yet April-June as her departure date is still 1.3 on Betfair
>
> Have I missed summit?
She didn't say how that was going to work, given the need to find a replacement in July.
Tried hard, but was ultimately a bit crap, hoisted upon her own petard
> Repost FPT....
>
> Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end.
>
> The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that.
>
> Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight.
Day after Peterborough. Get the last heavy defeat out the way before anyone else has to take any blame
The tears at the end have really screwed them.
10k to back at 1.14
Not as emotional when Dave resigned but still.
> Terrible day for the Tories. Back stabbing bastardry taken to a new level.
>
> The tears at the end have really screwed them.
It was all a bit 'it's a funny old world' 1990 redux
Although I disagree re back stabbery. The nation will be mostly relieved at a new chapter
> Repost FPT....
>
> Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end.
>
> The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that.
>
> Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight.
Theresa May will pass Gordon Brown's time in office at the end of this month.
To be replaced, I rather fear, by a shitty little twig.
An FYI Mike’s next major holiday after that is in September.
Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May.
> So Theresa resigns when Mike’s on holiday.
>
> An FYI Mike’s next major holiday after that is in September.
Steve Baker won't be prime minister very long then.
As she sowed, so has she reaped.
> Amber Rudd not running.
Boris's running mate apparently
> Amber Rudd not running.
PM loses seat isn't a good look
> Amber Rudd not running.
Would have little support and wont win her seat. I think she needs Boris as leader for someone who might appeal enough to win her marginal.
> https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1131850979941507072
Give it twelve. Nothing too much out of the ordinary will happen in the next 3 (OK, we'll have a new PM but that always happens from time to time).
> I think we’ll turn into Australia, PMs not lasting long.
There'll be a bitter spill to follow.
Who wud have thunk it?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Amber Rudd not running.
>
> PM loses seat isn't a good look
There’ll be a vacancy in Maidenhead at the next election (probably)
All of a sudden she’s Mother Theresa !
> Lost it at the end, didn't feel sorry for her one little bit.
>
> Tried hard, but was ultimately a bit crap, hoisted upon her own petard
Tried hard but ultimately not an instinctive politician or leader.
> That was quite emotional.
>
> Aye. Even I was emotional at the end.
>
> Not as emotional when Dave resigned but still.
The promise of what might have been
> Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all.
>
> Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May.
There is a nostalgia for Cameron in certain quarters, even though it is hard to think of any major policy area his government did not screw up.
> The fight for the soul of the Tory party starts today.
I think it was largely over some time back.
But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
(*) Note: those are all conditionals.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Amber Rudd not running.
>
> PM loses seat isn't a good look
If the Tories can't get the Brexit party below 10% Boris could lose his too....
> Peter Bone says BORIS!
>
> So who’s going to be not-Boris? Gove again, Hunt?
Could be Baker at this rate
https://twitter.com/antelava/status/1131838636591386626
> > @Bob__Sykes said:
> > Repost FPT....
> >
> > Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end.
> >
> > The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that.
> >
> > Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight.
>
> Day after Peterborough. Get the last heavy defeat out the way before anyone else has to take any blame
It's not as though she's hanging on to enjoy the remaining few days...
"The prime minister will remain in Downing Street, to shoulder the blame for what are expected to be dire results for her party at Thursday’s European elections – and to host Donald Trump when he visits...."
I'm left with the thought resigning on June 7th neatly splits her Premiership into two parts - the first 11 months or so when all seemed to be going so well right up to the exit poll on June 8th 2017.
The last 24 months have been unmitigated purgatory for her and disastrous for the country. Whether, had she resigned on the morning of June 9th 2017 as some forecast, the history of the past two years would have played out differently is one for the counterfactual historians among us.
All I know is her effective leadership ended with that exit poll.
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1131843848089624576
And he has provided a welcome boost for Britain's beleaguered milkshake industry.
> She said she is stepping down as Con Leader on Jun 7, yet April-June as her departure date is still 1.3 on Betfair
>
> Have I missed summit?
>
> Take all of that 1.3
>
> I managed to get out of my Oct-Dec position!
>
> 10k to back at 1.14
>
> Good effort, I ended up about level on this one, bar a few pence as cover on the Q4 bracket the other day.
---------------------
Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first).
> > @Bob__Sykes said:
> > Repost FPT....
> >
> > Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end.
> >
> > The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that.
> >
> > Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight.
>
> Theresa May will pass Gordon Brown's time in office at the end of this month.
Passing Brown was always irrelevant and quite possibly put forward as an attempt to discredit May by making her appear interested in such trivialities. I very much doubt she was even aware of the stat but even if she were, she'd always have had the opportunity to remain PM until a replacement Con leader was found and as such was always bound to overtake Brown's tenure.
> https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1131852599509041154
Only trouble is, her "service" has been double fault after double fault. She wasn't up to the task. She never was. History won't be swayed by the tears at the end. It's been a dismal, self-defeating premiership. A low point for this country... So far.
> She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible.
Weren't there constraints because of the number of bank holidays in the way and the requirement for 'working days' between dissolution & election?
> May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
>
> But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
>
> It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
>
> (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
She is also far better than the utterly contemptible Corbyn, I would vote for the Devil to beat him now. He always put party politics above the national interest
@HYUFD
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="HYUFD">Good move today I think by May, it gives Labour MPs who might support her Deal a way out, they can now say to Leave constituents if they voted for the WA they voted for Brexit and to Remain party members they voted for a referendum.
Yes, the nationalists, LDs, Corbyn, Labour Remainers and ERG No Deal hardliners rejected it but that was inevitable and they were not May's target audience, that was Labour MPs from Leave seats.
Also just got back from a good dinner with Liam Fox, he was very positive about the prospects for investment both here and abroad but also concerned about the impact of No Deal on the Union</blockquote>
> > @asjohnstone said:
> > Lost it at the end, didn't feel sorry for her one little bit.
> >
> > Tried hard, but was ultimately a bit crap, hoisted upon her own petard
>
> Tried hard but ultimately not an instinctive politician or leader.
A proper leadership contest in 2016 rather than a coronation would have highlighted this. The Cons simply did not learn from Gordon Brown's coronation, and not from their own, very thorough contest in 2005/06 which revealed a leader most people hadn't even heard of before its start (and who went on to win - or at least not lose - two general elections).
When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1131853260187324416
> The fight for the soul of the Tory party starts today.
Do we even know how many horcruxes there are?
> What's Gov'es play here?
Probably to support Boris finally, and angle for CoE?
> Who will the interim party leader be ?
There won't be one?
I may not agree with much of what he says but I admire TheJezziah for his tenacity in a mostly opposed environment. What difference does it make? They'll campaign now anyway.
I quite like Baker actually, a man of principles unlike the favourite.
I dislike him but he clearly believes in the goal he wants and technically has a plan unlike most of the others. If remain had won Osborne would have been a contender. Indeed, he had only just managed to become favourite iirc.
> This is wrong...she's stepping down as Con Leader, not as PM - she's got that until her replacement is appointed:
>
> https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1131853260187324416
Unless they contrive a fix. Again. But I don't see that happening this time.
> > @JosiasJessop said:
> > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
> >
> > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
> >
> > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
> >
> > (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
>
> She is also far better than the utterly contemptible Corbyn, I would vote for the Devil to beat him now. He always put party politics above the national interest
That's the point though: he doesn't put party politics above the national interest. If he did, then Labour would be way ahead in the polls.
Corbyn puts his warped ideology ahead of party politics and the national interest.
And yet he might soon be PM.
> May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
>
> But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
>
> It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
>
> (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
I would suggest very poorly.
I was very unhappy when she became PM, not primarily because of her views on Brexit but because her time at the Home Office marked her out to have a very bad combination of attributes - authoritarianism, incompetence and xenophobia. Anyone who saw how badly she handled things at the Home Office could see she was going to make a right pigs ear of Government in general and Brexit in particular and so it proved.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Who will the interim party leader be ?
>
> There won't be one?
The Tory contest won't be concluded on 7th June
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1131851679232602113
Indeed it was a sad end, but she made the serious political errors that brought us to this point.
> She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
> > @Pulpstar said:
>
> Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first).
>
> Money to be made?
>
>
> When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
I understood her to mean she will step down as Party Leader in June but remain as PM until after the contest.
BUT she did not talk about an interim leader so maybe she will simply be 'in recess' as party leader under the new timetable as well.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1131852599509041154
>
> Only trouble is, her "service" has been double fault after double fault. She wasn't up to the task. She never was. History won't be swayed by the tears at the end. It's been a dismal, self-defeating premiership. A low point for this country... So far.
"So far" doing a lot of work there.....lets see how well her successors do....
The Tories had better hope grovelling to Farage works, since that is their goal now .
> > @Pulpstar said:
>
> Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first).
>
> Money to be made?
>
>
> When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
----------------------------
Good point; lots of room for arbitrage between 'leader of Conservatives' and 'PM'....
> > @Pulpstar said:
>
> Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first).
>
> Money to be made?
>
>
> When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
CAREFUL -- do not confuse the party leadership (which you are betting on) with remaining as Prime Minister until a successor is found.
ETA: the party position is so ambiguous that I shan't be playing.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
>
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > > Amber Rudd not running.
>
> >
>
> > PM loses seat isn't a good look
>
>
>
> There’ll be a vacancy in Maidenhead at the next election (probably)
>
> If Boris-Rudd happens, then the contest is over before it begins. I guess CoE will be the deal, with huge leeway over domestic day-to-day policy, while Boris gets on with EU.
Yes, Bamber a real possibility, Boris much closer to the one nation Tories than Raab etc
> Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all.
>
> Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May.
Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her.