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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority mo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority moves into the favourite slot
My longest-priced bet is the 12/1 I got last year with Hills for their “other” option in the GE2015 outcome market. That covers a hung parliament but with no coalitions being formed.
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NOM 2.46
Unite 2.78
Con 4.1
Free money..
I suppose if you are clearing a Ladbrokes or Betfair bonus it could be ok, otherwise no.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-11-05/nigel-farage-i-was-a-libertarian-until-i-became-a-father/
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/05/the-real-reason-labour-is-petrified-of-re-opening-the-falkirk-inquiry/
Looks as if Labour Uncut are worried about PMQs for some odd reasons due to Falkirk.
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=14121
@Carlotta @Phillip H
What would the role of the SNP be in an independent Scotland? I have often wondered if they'd end up disbanding (I.e. the centre-left and Tartan Tory factions going their separate ways)
Daily Telegraph
The Sun
The Times
Daily Express
Patrick Wintour Political Editor of The Guardian:
"But Miliband is in a difficulty in that he has inflicted punishments on the Falkirk party, including Unite, but refused to set out what he believes went wrong."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/05/falkirk-selection-second-police-inquiry-miliband
Miliband unlikely to win union reforms at Spring special conf. without Unite support. Hence tip toes round Falkirk. http://bit.ly/1cBSvsc
The only pet I have ever owned is a goldfish... I'll leave the gags to you...
I've been laying a Lab maj for some time - very happy thank you very much.
Gove out next - dearie me...
Personally I doubt we will have a real understanding of what is likely to happen at GE2015 until after the Scottish Indy Referendum, the Euro elections and the Local Govt elections in England next year.
Police probe hospital over ‘falsifying’ cancer times in the Times - as I've been asked not to link to any Times stories - please find the link yourselves unless @PBModerator would advise otherwise.
"In the light of reports about alleged events in Falkirk, does the government intend to implement Lord Leveson's recommendation that there should be custodial penalties for offences under section 55 of the Data Protection Act?"
http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2013/October/jail-sentence-penalties-for-data-breaches-will-be-consulted-on-despite-governments-scepticism/
The triumph of the radical Democrat proves that you can run from the left and win."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/new-york-mayoral-candidate-bill-de-blasios-success-should-give-hope-miliband
Just like that other left wing success, Hollande.....
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/11/05/20002-20131105ARTFIG00327-le-deficit-de-la-france-va-deraper-a-37-en-2015-selon-bruxelles.php
Interesting twitter conversation between Damien Walter (of the Guardian) and John Scalzi* (sci-fi author) about what makes a writer professional.
*I can recommend Scalzi's Old Man's War for a light and engaging book.
The composite PMIs point to an annualised growth rate of 4.8%. A very strong performance in all sectors. The figure takes into account a slowdown in oil and gas. The higher 5.2% figure others are using does not, PMI measures manufacturing rather than production.
The sustainability of the recovery is getting stronger as the weeks pass. Business investment is starting to rise again and their proprietary pay index was 51.2 for the month of October while the inflation index was 51.4 which means that gap is starting to close as well. People's disposable incomes are starting to rise.
Moving onto the December statement from the government:
A continuation of the unemployment benefits freeze at 1% for a further year.
An uprating of the minimum wage in line with inflation (he thinks the market can take it this year) to £6.50/h from £6.31/h. That would mean the annual wage for a full time worker goes up from £13,120 to £13,520 - an increase of £400 per year, or £800 for a couple both earning the minimum wage. (A point he made which I definitely can understand.)
A £750m-900m tax on energy companies to fund 2p off the pump price, double whammy there, helps keep inflation down and helps with the cost of living. (A point made by me which he agreed with).
Raising the public sector pay by an extra 0.5% to 1.5% for 2014/15 for people on the basic income tax rate. Keep it at 1% for the higher rate earners. (I thought this seemed like an expensive move, but he said it would be a net positive for the economy and would raise morale in the public sector)
All new infrastructure programme and tentative funding approval for "a new runway somewhere in London" basically meaning Heathrow.
Announcement of new fracking licences and the final green light. Get oil and gas output growing again. A reminder from the chancellor that the fall in oil and gas output has caused a 1.4% loss of GDP growth since 2009/10 and a huge loss in productivity.
Anyway, it was an interesting chat. Raised some points about the minimum wage and public sector pay rises that I had not thought of, and many on PB probably haven't thought of either so I thought it would make for a good discussion point.
Probably because Germany's insistence on deflationary policies has brough half the European Continent to its knees. If France and the other Southern European countries got together, they could outvote Germany where it matters.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-24819973
Colchester Cancer coverage on Al Beeb.
He who pays the piper, calls the tune..
Lions are very lazy, they spend most of their time sleeping, and hunt what is familiar. They are not interested in hunting vehicles, and are mostly irritated by them. You see them indulging in displacement activity such as grooming when vehicles are about
You often see antelopes grazing a hundred meters or so away. They know the lions are there, but they also know when they have eaten and will not attack.
In the Luangua valley in Zambia, and in the Exeter reserve in South Africa, I have done walking safaris, with a guide. If you have a guide who knows their animal behaviour, it is quite safe. It is much more peaceful.
If you think that seeing large mammals from an open vehicle is a buzz, try a walking safari. Seeing an elephant from 10 yards in the wilderness, with only a guide at your side is a real cardiovascular workout for the jaded ennui of modern life. It is quite a primordial sensation.
Be careful about baboons though, they are clever enough not to be afraid, are aggressive and have a bite worse than a German Shepherd.
What about hippopotamuses? Aren't they supposed to be really nasty dangerous ones, more than lions?
(Some of the comments are interesting too).
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2013/11/a-living-wage.html
Personally, I think we should go even further on minimum wage and recover some of the ground lost last year. In the context of an economy which the PMIs indicate is creating 100K jobs a quarter that seems doable and will help the most oppressed in our society at relatively little cost to the Treasury. Ed is not the only one who can bribe people with other peoples' money.
I think the event will be important from the tories' point of view because it is the point at which they have to start to secure swingback if they are to have any chance in 2015. The stability of the Labour vote and the extent of the swing required means that a start really needs to be made and this is likely to be Osborne's best chance.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/05/the-real-reason-labour-is-petrified-of-re-opening-the-falkirk-inquiry/
Louise Mensch@LouiseMensch29m
I love @George_Osborne -
Bit worried that a further cut in beer duty wasn't mentioned
Tim Shipman (Mail)@ShippersUnbound1m
Editor of Labour Uncut warns Miliband that he is badly mishandling the Unite/Falkirk affair. Devastating stuff: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/05/the-real-reason-labour-is-petrified-of-re-opening-the-falkirk-inquiry/ …
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers1m
Miliband 'won't reopen Falkirk inquiry' because he fears potentially fatal defeat over union reforms, claims @atulh http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/05/the-real-reason-labour-is-petrified-of-re-opening-the-falkirk-inquiry/#.Unkba75jSyQ.twitter …
Miliband 'won't reopen Falkirk inquiry' because he fears potentially fatal defeat over union reforms, claims @atulh http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/05/the-real-reason-labour-is-petrified-of-re-opening-the-falkirk-inquiry/#.Unkba75jSyQ.twitter …
Weak....weak...weak...
Rate Total Increase 6.31 13125 ----- 6.5 13520 395.2 6.6 13728 603.2 6.7 13936 811.2 6.8 14144 1019.2Wage totals and increases at different minimum wage rates. £6.31 is the current rate. A rise to £6.50 assumes 3% inflation. I think the £6.60 rate would balance a decent rise in income for people while also being affordable for businesses.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/11/05/fewer-now-believe-snowden-was-right/
Wonder how that will change if it turns out the Guardian has leaked British operative's names....
I would suggest leaving them a national debt miles over £1 trillion was a bigger 'screw' to use your eloquence....
We stuck to election winning ideas. I don't think a tax to fund green stuff would win any votes. Taking 2p off the pump price definitely helps achieve that. Along with the other ideas mentioned it would put together a platform on which the Tories and Lib Dems to campaign on and pull off a win against Ed as it defangs all of his policy ideas without damaging the economic or investment outlook too much.
I'd prefer to see the NI lower earnings limit put up to at least £10k and if possible both the Personal Allowance and the NI lower limit raised even higher - perhaps to the level of someone working full time on the National Minimum Wage. These changes could be balanced by raising the tax rate on basic and higher earners, perhaps to 25%, so that the benefit is mainly felt by the lowest income workers and is neutral or only slightly beneficial to those on higher wages.
It would be interesting to see how a 'trickle up' economy works.
On a different topic, anyone else find PP's 'Next Foreign Sec' market has some really weird odds? Osborne as joint favourite with Danny Alexander? Nick Clegg as joint second favourite? Douglas Alexander at 7/1 isn't bad though, similar to Ed Balls as Next Chancellor (albeit not quite as likely, much longer odds though).
Next year real wages will start to rise as Max has already referred to, record numbers of people will be in work, aggregate spending will increase whether unsecured debt increases or not and house prices outside London will stuggle to do much more than hold their value in real terms. It's a bitch isn't it?
25p - The shortest suicide note in history
Why? If the PA was raised at the same time so that their post tax income was the same or slightly higher then I don't think anyone would complain. The priority is to focus the limited amount of money on the poorest workers.
Not to mention the knock on effect of small companies. There's a reason the corporation tax rate for small businesses is also 20%.
The time for radical tax realignments is early in the parly - not later.
Also whilst combining taxes looks simple there are many pensioners etc who pay IT but no NI.
Increase the allowances for 20p and 40p by more than inflation is the steady way to go.
"After invading Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, Philip II of Macedon sent a message to Sparta: "If I win this war, you will be slaves forever." In another version, he warned: "You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city." According to both accounts, the Spartan ephors replied with one word: "If" (αἴκα).[20] Subsequently both Philip and Alexander avoided Sparta entirely."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase
Following the deepening Labour party crisis in Falkirk it has become blatantly clear that London is still in charge of the Labour party in Scotland despite Johann Lamont’s claim that she would be in full control of Labour in Scotland.
On becoming leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, nearly two years ago, Johann Lamont said:
“I am the first leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I will lead all sections of the Scottish Party.”
Commenting on the scandal, Michael Matheson MSP for Falkirk West, said:
“If Falkirk has proven anything it is that Johann Lamont has no authority over the Labour party in Scotland and no credibility in Scottish or UK politics.......
“Ms Lamont has put Ed Miliband’s wishes first and foremost and her claim that she was to be the first leader of the whole Labour Party in Scotland has been shown up as all spin no substance form Labour - Falkirk and Scotland deserve better.”
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/nov/johann-lamont-no-authority-no-credibility
http://www.fbu.org.uk/?p=8270#more-8270
Insane idea. Better to just raise the tax free allowance and drag more people into the higher rate of tax. That's essentially a "free" way of doing it and there isn't much public sympathy for people earning £44k or higher right now.
Actually had a lot of support on the picket line from the passing public-they start off ribbing us about retiring early, that sort of thing, but that gives us a chance to explain our case. Most are surprised that we pay over 12% into our pension pots, and about the fitness issues.
It's gonna be a long haul, no doubt.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/05/gove-austen-orwell-dickens-die-out
GIDEON YOU EVIL SWINE....
Workers have to be flexible in this day and age .
"London is still in charge of the Labour party in Scotland. 14 years of devolution hasn't changed that, Ms Lamont hasn’t changed that and it's clear that only a Yes vote will."
In fairness they did get in a dozen 'Scotland' or 'Scottish' and a couple of 'London's....
I would guess Alastair Darling is not entirely chuffed at the ammunition Ed has handed the SNP....as well as rebuffing his request....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24827221
BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson said the announcement by BAE Systems is expected on Thursday morning and will be followed later that day by a Commons statement from the defence secretary.
He understands that BAE's Govan shipyard will not close despite the fact that the possibility has been discussed behind the scenes in recent weeks.
He said a well-placed source had told him that the UK government was "acutely conscious of the politics of the Clyde" ahead of next year's referendum on Scottish independence.
More to come.
Told him to get the same benefits as those he's already accrued, someone with a DC or personal pension needed £1,000,000 to replicate them on the annuity open market option - that wasn't including the value of his 3x pension tax free lump sum too!
About time the MP's faced this imbalance too... so much for getting rid of their gold-plated DB 1/40 accrual scheme!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-congo-democratic-rebels-idUSBRE9A30PE20131105
'So you're delighted to screw your kids generation over with house price inflation'
Translation:
Labour house price inflation good.Tory house price inflation evil.
Of course with an independent Scotland, rUK would be very eager to send all of their Naval Construction to the Clyde rather than Portsmouth.
Tim Shipman (Mail)@ShippersUnbound10m
Is Len McCluskey in charge of Labour Uncut's web hosting? http://labour-uncut.co.uk/
Tim Shipman (Mail)@ShippersUnbound10m
Labour Uncut has disappeared altogether after criticising Miliband handling of Falkirk: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/ Whats going on? @LabourUncut?
You seem to forget (or perhaps just aren't really intetested in the situation) that we're not striking to keep the status quo-no one can seriously argue for that. We just want something that is a fair, workable, and affordable, for both sides.
Excellent way to shut down dissent!!
Labour-Uncut, a fine socialist worker website, has merely been temporarily suspended whilst a full scale improvement of the site and much needed re-education of the staff takes place.
I'm so glad I studied Chaucer at school.
Not the first time red hot pokers were discussed at my school.