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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a se
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April
Update: Labour lead at 6 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 5th November – Con 34%, Lab 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%; APP -26 http://t.co/yQ959vX9kf
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Leader ratings, did you say?
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dnzcpjwqq1/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-041113.pdf
-28, for the LOTO, in late midterm.
YouGov, blah-blah Mori gold-standard blah-blah Yes I know.
Yes it is YouGov, but it is nonetheless measuring something.
And Ed Milliband is unpopular.
The position remains exactly the same as it was about 24 hours after the 2010 election.
Both Cameron and Miliband are a bit meh.
There's not much switching between Labour and the Tories.
The Tories need to win UKIP and NOTA voters.
Labour needs to hold Scotland and the LD2010s.
Miliband's lead isn't great for a single opposition party during a difficult environment, but appears enough and is holding together for now. Together with the LibDems willingness to backslide and lie in their own narrow factional interest this looks like enough. If it holds - personally I think it's going to be flaky when the crunch comes, but that may be my heart speaking
How about a simple chart showing Labour's lead over the Tories over the last 18 months? Yougov if you must, but only because they have the most data points.
Worrying news from Colchester Hospital.
The Tories hardly seem to have lost any support (based off 34% vs ?36% in 2010). How do you square that with the UKIP rise? Presumably UKIP winning a lot from NOTA - which arguably means that both Tories and Labour are actually doing better if you assume that a lot of NOTA will end up doing a Paxman.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/the-scotsman-cartoon-falkirk-vote-rigging-row-1-3175735
And given the way the Toies behaved in Saddleworth, I don't think there'd have been many of them tactically voting LD.
Of course, it's unlikely that a minority Tory Government would have increased VAT!
I resent this head over heart attack on me. I am just the messenger trying to produce several pieces each day when sod all is happening.
The fixed term parliament act has taken away so much of the potential for speculation this far out.
Also
- Ed is unpopular with his own side in midterm
- I won
- You lost
Even allowing for the undeniably strong imcumbency support within the LibDem strongholds, it's beginning to look very worrying indeed for them and given the strong dislike for them within the ranks of Labour and Tory voters, for very different reasons, it's very difficult to see from where they can gain any further significant support this side of a General Election. In fact they may well find themselves losing further ground as voters' minds are concentrated on the stark choice ahead.
I'm starting to wonder whether those 4/1 odds from Ladbrokes against them winning between 21-30 seats, thereby losing around half their representation, might have some merit after all.
things are looking a bit heated on PB this morning, maybe I should get Nadim to turn his thermostat down
The site irony meter will self destruct in five seconds ....
More significant than that, though, is the 35%+ vote share Labour has had in almost every poll from almost every pollster since around June 2010. That does not indicate flakiness to me. Throw in sitting LD MPs keeping out Tory challengers and the Tories have a hell of a task to win an election they should really expect to saunter.
The problem is that most of your threads have a negative slant for the Tories. There are certainly a lot of headwinds that work against them, but there are some more positive angles to consider as well. It's these aspects that seem to get overlooked (eg narrowing Labour lead on a 12 month view). If nothing else it leads to repetative threads with parties on both sides of the fence saying the same thing over and over again.
In a strange way suggesting you are led by your heart is a compliment - because I think you are too smart about politics to have missed these signs.
As an aside, the most interesting thread in recent times was Ddavid Herdson's last weekend. More of those type of "thought pieces" vs just polling threads - acknowledging they are a lot more work - would be great
Is it tomorrow when there is a bumper batch of council by-elections? I seem to remember Henry's preview pointing to one week this month with around 10 occurring.
The BAE news will not be good for the families concerned. However to be blunt if they are willing to travel, most of the men who will lose their jobs probably have the sort of technical skills which will see them get better paid jobs in the North Sea oil and gas sector.
What we desperately need is an explanation as to why most major public sector contracts, under any government seem to be incapable of being delivered on budget.
I wonder if it has occurred to MPs that they could make as big a contribution to carbon reduction if we just stopped them claiming. for power ?
Let's hear it for the old Bedford charmer. He's providing over 1,000 threads a year and if that's not a top notch multi coloured LibDem wooly jumper then I'm a winning here "Focus" leaflet !!
Huzzah for Mike Smithson !!!!!!!!!!!
More significantly, given the lack of direct switchers it has had a very modest effect on Labour of approximatley the same size.
It is possible that this holding pattern will remain in place for the next 18 months and Ed will cruise to victory. This would be atypical but with the coalition we are in an atypical situation.
At some point in the not too distant future the tories need to break the mold. I think a serious effort to do that will be made next month with what still seems to be called the Autumn statment for some reason. What we will see there is a burst of good news and some goodies for the public. If that does not at least start to break into the Labour vote the tories are in trouble.
Personally, I think that at least some recovery by the Lib Dems is a necessary element of that. This is like the 80s in reverse. The lefty vote is disproportionately concentrated in the Labour camp. At the same time the righty vote has been split by the rise of UKIP. I am more confident of that proving ephemeral than I am of a Lib Dem recovery.
I think not, and I am a supporter.
I think that a lot of the 2010 LDs who have now gone to Labour are voters who were shifted in 2005 by the anti war vote, and hard to see the LDs getting those back.
Will incumbency and tactical voting help? At the margin possibly, but not enough. 21-30 seats a definite possibility.
"The problem is that most of your threads have a negative slant for the Tories"
why's that a problem ? Maybe it just reflects that the blues still have to get their act together. Cameron is struggling as he still hasn't been able to broaden his appeal beyond the South.
I think he will come flying out of the stalls all guns blazing, then when the opposition catch him he will go completely off course
"Record View: Ed Miliband must come clean over inquiry into Falkirk vote fiasco
RECORD VIEW says ex-chancellor Alistair Darling is right to demand new and fully transparent probe into power struggle."
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/record-view-ed-miliband-must-2677645
But London Labour knows whats best for Scotland, so run along now and dinna bother yer wee heids....
The Falkirk scandal continues to dog Ed Miliband.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2488106/Red-Ed-accused-willfully-averting-gaze-refuses-seven-times-say-hell-reopen-vote-rigging-probe.html
If my heating bills for a Brummie flat were £1500p.a. I'd have my meter checked out. I'd also visit Specsavers before taking the readings.
IMO the LibDems are probably going to hit the 14-18% range with a seat range of 35-50. Look at the historic seat range and % share since 1974 and they simply don't relate.
Effectively the LibDem hotspots have trebled over the past 40 years and that will insulate them from losses that vote share loss might predict through UNS which simply isn't relevant to them.
The Tories last held onto a seat in a by-election while in power in the 1980s when William Hague came into parliament at Richmond, Yorkshire.
Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection - (Change From Last Projection)
Con 298 (0) .. Lab 280 (+4) .. LibDem 38 (0) .. SNP 10 (-2) .. PC 2 (0) .. NI 18 (0) .. Ukip 1 (-1) .. Respect 1 (0) .. Green 1 (0) .. Ind 0 (-1) .. Speaker 1 (0)
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/glasgow-mp-suggests-break-clause-in-warship-contract-141533n.22602982
Interesting to see how that plays out.....
In Scotland there is much more of a battle with the SNP and much more on a par with the Cons in the Midlands. London usually favours Labour but VI has been very variable.
www.newsletters@cnet.online.com
He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.
Labour Nailed on appears to be the cry.
A Labour-run London council is aiming to become the first in the UK to ban fracking.
Brent council’s leader has pledged to “do everything” within his power to outlaw the practice of extracting natural gas from the local authority area.
The council is backing concerns raised by Friends of the Earth about the dangers of fracking despite a recent report by Public Health England which concluded the process did not pose any serious threats provided it is properly regulated.
The announcement has echoes of the early 1980s when Brent was among a number of “Loony left” councils who supported the Greater London Council’s crusade to make the city into a “nuclear-free” zone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fracking/10419959/Loony-Left-Labour-council-aims-to-be-first-in-country-to-ban-fracking.html
There's been an explosion outside a regional HQ of the Chinese Communist Party, killing one person: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-24830724
This comes shortly after that burning car that drove into crowds in Tiananmen[sp] Square. For two such events to be so close together looks like more than coincidence, but as far as I know nobody claimed responsibility for the first one.
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges51m
"@OwenJones84 @tomcopley ...I have genuinely never heard you self define as middle-class till today".
He represents New Jersey. For many GOP supporters, only New York could be worse. He is well to the Party's left, with fairly moderate positions on abortion and gun-control. He does not appeal at all to some of the the Party's highly vocal factions.
Nevertheless he is a strong candidate, who would certainly have a chance of the White House, whoever the Democrats run.
The 8/1 Hills are still offering looked generous yesterday, more so today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10427783/Britain-to-have-worst-2014-trade-deficit-in-industrial-world-on-EU-forecasts.html
He has some similarity to Romney in that he is a republican governor of a democratic state who has shown an ability to work across the Aisle, notably when he thanked Obama for his help on the hurricane. He just seems to have more substance and less baggage. Saying he is twice the man Romeny was is probably sizest though.
Part 2 will be along soon. Don't worry. It doesn't say anything bad about the Tories at all.
I suppose I have good reason to dislike them as their local 17% based on false claims of impending victory probably cost me my seat, but I don't - they still seem to me broadly my sort of people in a way that the Conservatives don't, politically speaking. I'd guess that about half the previous tactical Labour->LD voters will still rally round where they're the incumbents. Not enough to save a lot of their seats but should prevent a massacre.
Another cost can be surprisingly significant. High-tech firms need people in the country - and even in the factories - to check process, quality control etcetera. Sadly, there are dangers to employing native Chinese staff for that role, and in one or two firms I've worked for, this is done by UK staff rotated over for months at a time. It is not a popular duty, and the pay can be significantly higher.
So much so, one firm has shifted production to Korea. The situation is (slightly) better there.
Now there's excitement for you OGH....
Next thread, what's the longest consecutive days the LDs have been in single figures?
None of this means that our balance of payment problems are over of course or that the government should not continue to give priority to addressing them. I just think that the EU figures on this are about as reliable as their growth forecasts for the UK were 6 months ago.
The data has been remarkably stable with no material variation month on month. The data with the greatest standard deviation has been libdem 2010 voters.
The average percentage data is:
Conservative 2010 voters:
c65,l4,ld1,ukip12,g0,wnv3,?13
labour 2010 voters:
c3,l80,ld2,ukip2,g1,wnv3,?9
libdem 2010 voters:
C8,l24,ld32,ukip6,g3,wnv3,?22
In addition to the key voting groups mentioned before is the high level of libdem2010 who currently don't know.
If only the election was tomorrow in Labour-land... the blank piece of paper apart from 'populist stunts' would mean nailed on for sure.
He must be front runner now, and anything above 5/1 would be pretty good value.
And running an explicitly pro Labour campaign would put off the remaining 8%, as well as stretching credibility a bit far.
I think Jacks ARSE current prediction would be a very interesting outcome, and one likely to collapse into a second election quickly, so plenty there for PB threads!
I think you mean "Scotsman, Daily Record and Daily Herald'....
McCain and Romney were clearly the best of a whacky job lot and so it may prove with Christie. He also has the advantage of putting a blue state back on the table as other states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio edge the other way.
Another crap night for the US polling institutes, in fact - they got all three rersults wrong quite significantly. Maybe they need the sort of "where are we going wrong?" rethink that we had in Britain after 1992.
Nothing personal but as an example, let's assume he's got 7 years accrued service in the MP pension scheme at that time and base salary is say £60k. Then 1/40 accrual = 7/40 x £60k for life which is £10,500pa with 50% spouse, inflation-linked benefits.
There may even be 3x this as a tax free lump sum straight from the taxpayer as there is with the NHS old scheme but not sure so let's say not. Also don't know the MP commutation factor for more tax free cash versus less taxable pension income - would be interested to know that. Often it's a measly 9 to 12 in DB pensions but would like to know what MP's get?
Someone in the private sector would need circa £300,000 to get that £10,500pa - saving approx. £40,000pa in those 7 years.
Someone elected for 13 years is looking at circa £20,000pa which is worth £600,000 or more...
Imagine the leverage on their pensions if they do raise their salary to say £80k as well...
No wonder there's so many MPs still and of course so many PPCs!!
It's a disgrace.
(Personally I left it a bit too long and got only 1/3 just before it was withdrawn.)
Hillary is a shoo-in, I think, but not Christie. The GOP has some plausble alternatives this time - Rubio, Bush, and Ryan, for example. Martinez is interesting, and I understand Jindal is back in play.
Christie is favorite but I don't think it will be dull. How could it be with Ted Cruz in the field?
If selected, he probably has the best chance for the Republicans. Despite their nuttiness Republican Primaries do not tend to select the real headbangers. The swivel eyed loons spread their votes too thin over the field, so centrist Republicans tend to come through as candidate.
Presumably the effect can also work with shipyards, in reverse.
The thing about low wage economies, though, is that the productivity is generally very poor as there is no incentive to invest in mechanisation, while education levels among workforces are extremely low. As they also tend to be a fair distance from many key markets, the initial saving can rapidly melt away, especially if there are other issues too.
We've yet to see much of an Anti-LAB party because CON voters seem to have been reluctant in the past to vote tactically. This is one of the reasons why the electoral system seems to be biased against the Tories. CON voters are more ready to waste their vote.
But yeah, I think he can do it. He _would_ draw the ire of the Tea Party, but as previously the right may have a hard time getting behind a single candidate, especially if Rand Paul runs and gets the libertarian side, but fails to sew up the social conservative side and leaves that to Santorum or somebody like him.
And what Christie has that Obama had and Romney didn't is attitude. Partisans will forgive quite a lot of doctrinal heresy if a candidate has a sufficiently fiery attitude about the other side. Being seriously rude about the Democrats should give him cover to cuddle up close to them on policy.
Perhaps the words "strong resentment" would have been better. Possible switchers from Lab -> LibDem strongly resent the fact that the Yellows entered into coalition with the Tories in the first place and possible switchers from Con -> LibDem equally strongly resent the fact that the Yellows reneged (as they see it) on supporting the recommended Boundary Changes despite having been granted a referendum on PR voting.
It will be interesting to see if BAE Systems Maritime move their headquarters from Portsmouth. Although it looks as though maintenance and repairs will continue at Portsmouth, why have their bases there, when the construction will occur further north?
My response to him was, if that £6m was so easy to find, why were they spending it in the first place - response was none.
salary is 66,396 now. It will be 67,060 in April 2014
They can exchange 25% of capital value for a free tax lump sum
http://www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com/
The recent form is that early voting states allow themselves the luxury of voting for the whack jobs and then the race narrows to one normal human being and a representative of planet loony. Pragmatic Republicans and Conservatives then hold their nose and the humanoid wins the primary season.