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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory race is crowded but there is value there

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory race is crowded but there is value there

When a dozen candidates declare their candidacy for a party leadership, it’s not a sign of strength. Certainly, it’s entirely possible to go too far the other way and allow a flawed but dominant candidate in by default, but an excess of candidates points to a lack of confidence in the leading runners among the second string.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,636
    First like Boris.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    Second like LibDems
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    It seems to me that Raab is helping Boris, deliberately or otherwise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    I hope you're right, Mr. Herdson.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,709
    IanB2 said:

    It seems to me that Raab is helping Boris, deliberately or otherwise.

    Yes, the dynamics of this Conservative leadership election is fascinating. The "anyone but Boris" position has been outflanked by Raab's candidature, and Baker, if he declares, will push Boris further to the centre.
    There are bigger bogeymen out there after all! Meanwhile the dries will be pleased to see that he is supported by the Truss.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @AndyJS said:
    > It's fascinating to watch this clash between Islamic values and Birmingham City Council. Newsnight led on it.

    The relative concerns about the teaching of sexuality in schools and industrial scale racist child rape which people have is also fascinating.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    Isn't Hunt the consensus, don't split the party candidate ?

    Similar to May but with presumably some people and leadership skills.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,038
    Raab as the non-nutcase option? Really? I don’t think so. He strikes me both as a nutcase and utterly dishonest, if the reports about his behaviour from Europe and Ireland are true.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,982
    edited June 1
    There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.

    In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    If Boris had resigned from the government over Heathrow expansion would he be in a better position now ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,257
    edited June 1
    On Brexit, Sajid Javed has definitively ruled out an extension, a referendum AND a general election.

    If he gets the job, therefore, our first Muslim PM will be resigning in October for lack of any alternative.

    Appointed in July, out in October, having had August off. All seems a bit pointless really.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,255
    Amazing to think that one of these cretins, non-entities, liars and rogues will become the next Prime Minister. There is no beginning to the talent the Tories possess.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    Mr. Richard, yes.

    But I'm not sure it would've made a huge difference as his infantile hiding in Afghanistan doesn't appeared to have harmed him too much. Alas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    edited June 1
    I'm putting many of the undeclared in the Boris camp..... They'll tell their local associations who they voted for once the voting to get to the final two is over.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    Mr. kinabalu, could be wrong, but I thought Javid was an atheist?

    Mr. Mark, or that could be a handy excuse. "Of course, *I* voted for Boris, but my colleagues let us down. Oh well. I reluctantly support X out of the final two."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    edited June 1
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > Amazing to think that one of these cretins, non-entities, liars and rogues will become the next Prime Minister. There is no beginning to the talent the Tories possess.

    Have you seen the other side? :lol:
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,352
    Just to complete my thought from last thread: I don't think parents should be able to choose whether their kids are taught about LGBT relationships, but I don't think that's any worse than the school choosing. It should be on the national curriculum with no religious exemption.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    kinabalu said:

    On Brexit, Sajid Javed has definitively ruled out an extension, a referendum AND a general election.



    If he gets the job, therefore, our first Muslim PM will be resigning in October for lack of any alternative.



    Appointed in July, out in October, having had August off. All seems a bit pointless really.

    I doubt it.

    One thing commentators seem to have missed is that May's premiership demonstrated one thing. You can endlessly repeat a position e.g. we are leaving on 30th March or we wont be having a GE, and then change your mind and just ignore the abuse.

    None of these candidates saying X will not happen with me can be trusted frankly.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    edited June 1
    Peter Foster of the Telegraph does a hatchet job on Dominic Raab's brief and unhappy stint as Brexit Sec. Everyone dealing with him seems to think he is an utter shit, in a way that the flamboyantly unreliable Johnson isn't. Twitter thread:

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,611
    @Richard_Nabavi noted that the undeclared MPs are disproportionately from the non-headbanger crowd. That seems likely to be good for Messrs Gove, Hunt and Javid.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    There is another possible angle. People who endorse one candidate in order to be bribed away from them. So you publicly back Raab and then privately ask Johnson what he'll offer for you to defect in Round 2.
    Leveraging Johnson's weakness for a job is a smart move for a middle ranking MP who is concerned he'll be overlooked. And for Johnson, it'll give the impression of late momentum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,220
    edited June 1
    The fact that Javid has joined Raab in saying the UK must now leave the EU Deal or No Deal in October is a boost for Boris as they are now 4th and 3rd in terms of MPs endorsements respectively and most of their MPs will likely then switch to Boris who has taken the same position if they are knocked out over Hunt and Gove.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48482762

    That means it is now likely Boris will make the membership vote as he is already now tied top with Hunt for MPs endorsements. So it could actually be mainly a question of whether it is Hunt or Gove who faces Boris in the final two
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 59
    > @another_richard said:
    > Isn't Hunt the consensus, don't split the party candidate ?
    >
    > Similar to May but with presumably some people and leadership skills.

    Anyone who is "similar to May" in any way surely can't be considered any kind of consensus candidate in the present environment. That being said, his current odds seem a bit generous IMHO.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,255
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > @Richard_Nabavi noted that the undeclared MPs are disproportionately from the non-headbanger crowd. That seems likely to be good for Messrs Gove, Hunt and Javid.

    Javid seems to be targeting the headbangers specifically.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    Mr. 43, whether that's accurate or not, it's more likely to help Raab than hinder him to have EU types say they don't like him.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,038
    edited June 1
    In response to @JosiasJessop (fpt):-

    “Yes, I know you disagree. But it is odd that whilst other 'different' groups need protection and get terms about their protection: e.g. Homophobia, misogyny/misandry or anti-Semitism, Muslims seem to be one group who people seem to complain about having such a term - as if they don't want that group to have the same protections as others.”

    If I may say so it is only odd because you are making a category error. It’s not a question of giving each group (however defined) protection from abuse or offence. It’s about not discriminating on the basis of characteristics which cannot be changed, which are inherent and which are irrelevant eg sex, sexuality, race. So discriminating or abusing someone because the colour of their skin is darker than yours is wrong. Criticising someone for what they believe is fine. Belief is a choice. Both may be offensive to the person concerned but offence should not be the basis on which something is prevented or legislated against.

    Muslims should no more be protected against abuse than Anglicans or Catholics or Seventh Day Adventists or Jehovah’s Witnesses.

    The demands for protections for Muslims is because people deliberately assume or conflate being Muslim with being dark-skinned, with being from particular countries - some because they want to attack them (the Tommy Robinson crowd) and some because they don’t want their religion to be criticised. We should not accept this dishonest conflation. I have written on the previous thread how one can deal with those who use one concept to mean another so won’t repeat it here.

    What with this, the Tories making fools of our country and Trump on his way, public affairs is utterly depressing.

    There is the Derby to bet on instead! And, I believe, a football match somewhere.

    Have a nice day all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,220
    edited June 1
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
    >
    > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.

    Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.



    Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,709
    HYUFD said:

    The fact that Javid has joined Raab in saying the UK must now leave the EU Deal or No Deal in October is a boost for Boris as they are now 3rd and 4th in terms of MPs endorsements respectively and most of their MPs will likely then switch to Boris who has taken the same position if they are knocked out over Hunt and Gove.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48482762
    That means it is now likely Boris will make the membership vote as he is already now tied top with Hunt for MPs endorsements. So it could actually be mainly a question of whether it is Hunt or Gove who faces Boris in the final two

    and so Boris it is!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    Scott_P said:
    Even more bonkers, those with the strongest take on this were in the negotiating teams!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    Mr. Borough, I do feel some sympathy for Davis/Raab on the basis they were essentially undercut by May.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
    > >
    > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
    >
    > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
    >
    >
    >
    > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position

    Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
    > >
    > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
    >
    > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
    >
    >
    >
    > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position

    Has he said which cuts he wants to be 'brave' about ?

    Now some cuts - HS2 and Overseas Aid are 'fish in a barrel' stuff.

    But is he suggesting ending triple lock pensions for example ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,038

    Mr. 43, whether that's accurate or not, it's more likely to help Raab than hinder him to have EU types say they don't like him.

    It will just make his failure quicker and more damaging for the country. Depends if the Tories just want someone as PM who is good at insulting our neighbours or one who has some idea (a plan is too much to expect) about what to do next. Do they care about party only or the country?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @Richard_Nabavi noted that the undeclared MPs are disproportionately from the non-headbanger crowd. That seems likely to be good for Messrs Gove, Hunt and Javid.
    >
    > Javid seems to be targeting the headbangers specifically.

    I would hardly call Kevin Foster a "headbanger"!!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,255
    It does seem significant that committed Leavers haven’t coalesced around Johnson already. They clearly don't trust him.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    HYUFD said:


    Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.







    Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
    That clip from Raab is probably older than yesterday as he refers to the manifesto.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,038

    > @HYUFD said:

    > > @NickPalmer said:

    > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.

    > >

    > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.

    >

    > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.

    >

    >



    >

    > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position



    Has he said which cuts he wants to be 'brave' about ?



    Now some cuts - HS2 and Overseas Aid are 'fish in a barrel' stuff.



    But is he suggesting ending triple lock pensions for example ?
    Or people in their 60’s paying NI or the self-employed paying it (as per the Hammond proposal a few years back)? And which government departments will go?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374

    Mr. 43, whether that's accurate or not, it's more likely to help Raab than hinder him to have EU types say they don't like him.

    Agreed. Trump's playbook. Raab may be an utter shit, but he's our utter shit.

    Except of course he isn't. He's his own utter shit. Which is Peter Foster's point, I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Borough, I do feel some sympathy for Davis/Raab on the basis they were essentially undercut by May.

    That area is where the diaries will be fascinating: to what extent did May killl off a realistic chance of a non-Chequers deal? If it is held she did, then Eden can rest easier, knowing the mantle of Worst PM Ever has been lifted from him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,220
    Truss endorses Boris but no Rudd Boris pact

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re Mike’s header.



    While Trump’s comments about Boris are certainly harmful (worth reading the entire transcript), what really surprised me was his calling Meghan, Countess of Dumbarton, “nasty”.



    Foreign heads of state praising, or criticising, official candidates to be the next prime minister are one thing. But a direct attack on a senior member of the royal family? Ouch!

    He is an oaf without any manners.
    Unlike the arses that run the UK, a bunch of privileged cretins who are thick as mince and twice as oafish.
    I have got to disagree with you there malc. We definitely have some cretins and some oafs, but twice as oafish as Trump? I just dont know that that is possible.
    Cyclefree said:


    Or people in their 60’s paying NI or the self-employed paying it (as per the Hammond proposal a few years back)? And which government departments will go?

    DXEU?
    DfID?

    More likely he would propose a bunch going, realise it's not easy, and not do it, or just merge a few.

    Still, we are getting to the point the candidates are differentiating themselves at least. They can work through such ideas when they are in opposition next year
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > It's fascinating to watch this clash between Islamic values and Birmingham City Council. Newsnight led on it.
    >
    > The relative concerns about the teaching of sexuality in schools and industrial scale racist child rape which people have is also fascinating.

    Its amazing that they are so concerned and animated about child welfare in this instance, yet not so animated about grooming gangs.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    Re Matt Hancock -- the Telegraph notes he is backed by Theresa May insiders: Damian Green (May's BFF and former DPM); Andrew Bowie (May's PPS); Seema Kennedy (May's former PPS).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > Mr. Borough, I do feel some sympathy for Davis/Raab on the basis they were essentially undercut by May.
    >
    > That area is where the diaries will be fascinating: to what extent did May killl off a realistic chance of a non-Chequers deal? If it is held she did, then Eden can rest easier, knowing the mantle of Worst PM Ever has been lifted from him.

    The chance of a non-Chequers deal was killed when the Conservatives supported May.

    If you let May do the negotiating you get the type of deal May would support.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    a growing number of Tories think the party is “heading to the destined psycho-drama” of a Boris/Gove run-off.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9196948/boris-rev-up-leadership-campaign/
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,158

    > @HYUFD said:

    > > @NickPalmer said:

    > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.

    > >

    > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.

    >

    > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.

    >

    >



    >

    > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position



    Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.
    Cutting HS2 would be an appallingly myopic course of action
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    Mr. JohnL, I'm unpersuaded that Hancock's seeming to be May Part 2 will work out for him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    kinabalu said:

    On Brexit, Sajid Javed has definitively ruled out an extension, a referendum AND a general election.



    If he gets the job, therefore, our first Muslim PM will be resigning in October for lack of any alternative.



    Appointed in July, out in October, having had August off. All seems a bit pointless really.

    I agree on the actual effect of his position - though he does not have the ability to guarantee no GE, and i think that would happen since he is essentially backing no deal by ruling out everything else - though I dont know if he is personally a Muslim or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    It does seem significant that committed Leavers haven’t coalesced around Johnson already. They clearly don't trust him.

    No need for the first few rounds. Let him see if Baker or McVey do well to warn him not to back slide- he has enough nominations to be safe through the first few rounds at least .
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > Re Matt Hancock -- the Telegraph notes he is backed by Theresa May insiders: Damian Green (May's BFF and former DPM); Andrew Bowie (May's PPS); Seema Kennedy (May's former PPS).

    Perhaps that's why Hancock is going for the trendy vicar image.

    But I doubt there's much demand for Continuity May.

    There might be more demand for 'consensus with competence' which Hunt could aim at.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > Re Matt Hancock -- the Telegraph notes he is backed by Theresa May insiders: Damian Green (May's BFF and former DPM); Andrew Bowie (May's PPS); Seema Kennedy (May's former PPS).

    Kiss Of Death.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. 43, whether that's accurate or not, it's more likely to help Raab than hinder him to have EU types say they don't like him.

    It will just make his failure quicker and more damaging for the country. Depends if the Tories just want someone as PM who is good at insulting our neighbours or one who has some idea (a plan is too much to expect) about what to do next. Do they care about party only or the country?
    They think they do with both. Problem is they will believe a candidate who says 'ignore that there are others involved in securing massive international agreements- they will do as you want because I say so'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405

    > @HYUFD said:

    > > @NickPalmer said:

    > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.

    > >

    > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.

    >

    > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.

    >

    >



    >

    > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position



    Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.
    Cutting HS2 would be an appallingly myopic course of action
    Agreed. But seems dead in the water now. All the leadership candidates pretty much have promised backbenchers they will junk it. I suppose HoC could block them at a later date (that's if any of them actual get to the Queen's Speech bit!!)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    > @rottenborough said:
    > a growing number of Tories think the party is “heading to the destined psycho-drama” of a Boris/Gove run-off.
    >
    > https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9196948/boris-rev-up-leadership-campaign/

    In which case, Gove will discover what the members think of his knifing Boris three years ago - and condemning us to the May Interregnum.....
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @kle4 said:
    > On Brexit, Sajid Javed has definitively ruled out an extension, a referendum AND a general election.
    >
    >
    >
    > If he gets the job, therefore, our first Muslim PM will be resigning in October for lack of any alternative.
    >
    >
    >
    > Appointed in July, out in October, having had August off. All seems a bit pointless really.
    >
    > I agree on the actual effect of his position - though he does not have the ability to guarantee no GE, and i think that would happen since he is essentially backing no deal by ruling out everything else - though I dont know if he is personally a Muslim or not.

    He has publicly stated that he does not practise any religion. That ought to be the last word on any talk of religious affiliation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    @Richard_Nabavi noted that the undeclared MPs are disproportionately from the non-headbanger crowd. That seems likely to be good for Messrs Gove, Hunt and Javid.

    The key is do MPs have the guts not to include Boris in the final two in the face of not subtle threats that even more members will switch to BXP?

    Because if he gets through to the members he wins as he is peddling a simple message and is popular - anyone attempting nuance will be mullered.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    ah009 said:

    > @kle4 said:

    > On Brexit, Sajid Javed has definitively ruled out an extension, a referendum AND a general election.

    >

    >

    >

    > If he gets the job, therefore, our first Muslim PM will be resigning in October for lack of any alternative.

    >

    >

    >

    > Appointed in July, out in October, having had August off. All seems a bit pointless really.

    >

    > I agree on the actual effect of his position - though he does not have the ability to guarantee no GE, and i think that would happen since he is essentially backing no deal by ruling out everything else - though I dont know if he is personally a Muslim or not.



    He has publicly stated that he does not practise any religion. That ought to be the last word on any talk of religious affiliation.

    Indeed, seems clear in that case.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Its probably wise for a politician to look like he's done a few days hard graft before he suggests that.

    Although there is a wider issue here.

    Why shouldn't people idle a bit instead of overworking - there's more to the work / life balance than GDP maximisation.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @not_on_fire said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > > @NickPalmer said:
    >
    > > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
    >
    >
    >
    > Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.
    >
    > Cutting HS2 would be an appallingly myopic course of action

    You might think so but most people have higher priorities.

    HS2 supporters have been too complacent - you should have been demanding the start of construction years ago, in particular construction in the North.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    Scott_P said:
    Anecdotal, of course, but some of the tories I've met various mps say similar, not fans at all. But at least one is still backing him on the grounds only he can win a GE, and I know others who I dont know if they've met him who are definitely backers.

    Idk, it's hard for us to really know the competence at ministerial responsibilities candidates might have, and being PM is different to that as well, but not many seem to think Boris is effective at his job. Just that he might win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    > @not_on_fire said:

    > > @HYUFD said:

    >

    > > > @NickPalmer said:

    >

    > > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.

    >

    > > >

    >

    > > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position

    >

    >

    >

    > Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.

    >

    > Cutting HS2 would be an appallingly myopic course of action



    You might think so but most people have higher priorities.



    HS2 supporters have been too complacent - you should have been demanding the start of construction years ago, in particular construction in the North.
    They havent even started yet!? I feel like it has been underway most of my life. No wonder people are annoyed. You need to start pretty quickly with big stuff.

    Renovation of the palace of Westminster take note. Nah, it can wait another 10 years, it'll be fine.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,522
    edited June 1
    No mention of Leadsom, even though she's third in the betting on 8.2 ahead of Raab. Is it because she's a mum?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    edited June 1
    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. 43, whether that's accurate or not, it's more likely to help Raab than hinder him to have EU types say they don't like him.

    It will just make his failure quicker and more damaging for the country. Depends if the Tories just want someone as PM who is good at insulting our neighbours or one who has some idea (a plan is too much to expect) about what to do next. Do they care about party only or the country?
    Raab's pitch to the selectorate is remarkable: Vote for me because I failed miserably as Brexit Sec. I will do even more as PM.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @kle4 said:
    >
    > They havent even started yet!? I feel like it has been underway most of my life. No wonder people are annoyed. You need to start pretty quickly with big stuff.
    >
    > Renovation of the palace of Westminster take note. Nah, it can wait another 10 years, it'll be fine.

    Would you be surprised to discover that HS2 is behind schedule ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    > @kle4 said:

    >

    > They havent even started yet!? I feel like it has been underway most of my life. No wonder people are annoyed. You need to start pretty quickly with big stuff.

    >

    > Renovation of the palace of Westminster take note. Nah, it can wait another 10 years, it'll be fine.



    Would you be surprised to discover that HS2 is behind schedule ?

    It's a major infrastructure project, I would not be surprised to learn it is 5 years behind schedule and 3 times over budget. I almost passed out when reading a story about a tunner project in Switzerland last year which was done on time and on budget, I did not think it was possible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. 43, whether that's accurate or not, it's more likely to help Raab than hinder him to have EU types say they don't like him.

    It will just make his failure quicker and more damaging for the country. Depends if the Tories just want someone as PM who is good at insulting our neighbours or one who has some idea (a plan is too much to expect) about what to do next. Do they care about party only or the country?
    Raab's pitch to the selectorate is remarkable: Vote for me because I failed miserably as Brexit Sec. I will do even more as PM.
    Indeed. His defence of how the WA came about is basically 'I am easily fooled and did not know what was going on' (no, he doesn't put it that way). But in fairness a lot MPs and members are willing to believe that if not for May sabotaging things (for some reason), Davis and Raab or whoever would have had this sorted easily.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,273
    Absolutely no consensus for HS2 has been achieved nationally I expect given most people don't actually live in London, or one of the other big cities served. Certainly not up where I am, indeed the Sheffield link is the sort of afterthought that politicians based in the capital whose entire view of Yorkshire consists of Leeds would come up with. I expect sentiment is similar in the rural Tory constituencies in the south.
    This is low hanging fruit for both the Tory leadership contenders and the Brexit party.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,256

    > @not_on_fire said:

    > > @HYUFD said:

    >

    > > > @NickPalmer said:

    >

    > > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.

    >

    > > >

    >

    > > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position

    >

    >

    >

    > Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.

    >

    > Cutting HS2 would be an appallingly myopic course of action



    You might think so but most people have higher priorities.



    HS2 supporters have been too complacent - you should have been demanding the start of construction years ago, in particular construction in the North.
    I've mentioned many times why starting in the north was a non-starter, and you just ignore it or give nonsensical one-liners in response.

    Like the people who say HS2 should end at Old Oak Common, I think the 'start in the north' crowd are just people looking for excuses for the project to be cancelled without overtly saying so.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,810
    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. 43, whether that's accurate or not, it's more likely to help Raab than hinder him to have EU types say they don't like him.

    It will just make his failure quicker and more damaging for the country. Depends if the Tories just want someone as PM who is good at insulting our neighbours or one who has some idea (a plan is too much to expect) about what to do next. Do they care about party only or the country?
    Raab's pitch to the selectorate is remarkable: Vote for me because I failed miserably as Brexit Sec. I will do even more as PM.
    This tax cut nonsense is clearly a sign of desperation from I,Raabot. He's almost at the shitting himself to get attention stage.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,256
    Cyclefree said:

    In response to @JosiasJessop (fpt):-

    “Yes, I know you disagree. But it is odd that whilst other 'different' groups need protection and get terms about their protection: e.g. Homophobia, misogyny/misandry or anti-Semitism, Muslims seem to be one group who people seem to complain about having such a term - as if they don't want that group to have the same protections as others.”

    If I may say so it is only odd because you are making a category error. It’s not a question of giving each group (however defined) protection from abuse or offence. It’s about not discriminating on the basis of characteristics which cannot be changed, which are inherent and which are irrelevant eg sex, sexuality, race. So discriminating or abusing someone because the colour of their skin is darker than yours is wrong. Criticising someone for what they believe is fine. Belief is a choice. Both may be offensive to the person concerned but offence should not be the basis on which something is prevented or legislated against.

    Muslims should no more be protected against abuse than Anglicans or Catholics or Seventh Day Adventists or Jehovah’s Witnesses.

    The demands for protections for Muslims is because people deliberately assume or conflate being Muslim with being dark-skinned, with being from particular countries - some because they want to attack them (the Tommy Robinson crowd) and some because they don’t want their religion to be criticised. We should not accept this dishonest conflation. I have written on the previous thread how one can deal with those who use one concept to mean another so won’t repeat it here.

    (Snip).

    I believe I responded to this on the previous thread.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,926
    Mr. P, it was via anonymous telephone call, the individual identifying himself only as Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Absolutely no consensus for HS2 has been achieved nationally I expect given most people don't actually live in London, or one of the other big cities served. Certainly not up where I am, indeed the Sheffield link is the sort of afterthought that politicians based in the capital whose entire view of Yorkshire consists of Leeds would come up with. I expect sentiment is similar in the rural Tory constituencies in the south.
    > This is low hanging fruit for both the Tory leadership contenders and the Brexit party.

    The preference for a station in the centre of Sheffield rather than at Meadowhall is another example of that.

    I cam across this justification for HS2 recently:

    ' Building Northern Powerhouse Rail without HS2 would be like constructing the M62 without the M1. '

    http://www.cityam.com/277940/debate-time-accept-sunk-cost-and-scrap-hs2

    I suspect there would be microscopically few users of the M62 who think its only justification is to link to the M1.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    edited June 1
    Scott_P said:
    Boy, you can people to agree with anything so long as you mention British imperialism somewhere in it I see.

    Edit: And this is why the Like button must be removed from vanilla! Who knows what people might end up liking and then one day stand for office.

    Luckily it is next to the off topic button, so people have an out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    edited June 1

    Mr. P, it was via anonymous telephone call, the individual identifying himself only as Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

    Sounds made up, clearly just a prank call.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    Scott_P said:
    In fairness I do recall several non fans of Boris giving him that much credit at the time. But everyone gets at least one win.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,038
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > In response to @JosiasJessop (fpt):-
    >
    > “Yes, I know you disagree. But it is odd that whilst other 'different' groups need protection and get terms about their protection: e.g. Homophobia, misogyny/misandry or anti-Semitism, Muslims seem to be one group who people seem to complain about having such a term - as if they don't want that group to have the same protections as others.”
    >
    > If I may say so it is only odd because you are making a category error. It’s not a question of giving each group (however defined) protection from abuse or offence. It’s about not discriminating on the basis of characteristics which cannot be changed, which are inherent and which are irrelevant eg sex, sexuality, race. So discriminating or abusing someone because the colour of their skin is darker than yours is wrong. Criticising someone for what they believe is fine. Belief is a choice. Both may be offensive to the person concerned but offence should not be the basis on which something is prevented or legislated against.
    >
    > Muslims should no more be protected against abuse than Anglicans or Catholics or Seventh Day Adventists or Jehovah’s Witnesses.
    >
    > The demands for protections for Muslims is because people deliberately assume or conflate being Muslim with being dark-skinned, with being from particular countries - some because they want to attack them (the Tommy Robinson crowd) and some because they don’t want their religion to be criticised. We should not accept this dishonest conflation. I have written on the previous thread how one can deal with those who use one concept to mean another so won’t repeat it here.
    >
    > (Snip).
    >
    > I believe I responded to this on the previous thread.

    You did. I wrote this before I'd seen your reply. Thank you for the debate.

    Now for the great outside - birds singing, roses scenting, the gentle hum of bees, sun shining....

    All is well in the real world. :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Absolutely no consensus for HS2 has been achieved nationally I expect given most people don't actually live in London, or one of the other big cities served. Certainly not up where I am, indeed the Sheffield link is the sort of afterthought that politicians based in the capital whose entire view of Yorkshire consists of Leeds would come up with. I expect sentiment is similar in the rural Tory constituencies in the south.

    This is low hanging fruit for both the Tory leadership contenders and the Brexit party.

    The "This piece of infrastructure shouldn't go ahead because I don't benefit from it" is an 'interesting' one.

    For instance, I don't object to the many upgrades going on in the north (and despite what TSE says, vast sums are being spent on the upgrades) just because I, living in Cambridge, don't directly benefit from them.

    Likewise, I rarely fly (in fact, I hate it), and yet am in favour of Heathrow expansion - because I can look a little wider than my own direct interests. This is because the indirect benefits should well advantage me.

    Not all infrastructure projects are beneficial, and indeed calculating benefits is a rather imprecise and vague 'science'. However the argument that a project should not go ahead just because someone does not directly benefit would stop *all* infrastructure projects in the country.

    Including ones you want.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 407
    edited June 1
    Pretty bad timing if this checks out.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,798
    I see the myth that the Brexit Party has members rather than paying registered supporters to which it is completely unaccountable is being helpfully promoted.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,455
    Gove has a website: https://gove2019.com/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,664
    Looks slightly suspect to me. The spelling for one thing is atrocious!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @not_on_fire said:
    >
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > @NickPalmer said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Cutting HS2 would be an appallingly myopic course of action
    >
    >
    >
    > You might think so but most people have higher priorities.
    >
    >
    >
    > HS2 supporters have been too complacent - you should have been demanding the start of construction years ago, in particular construction in the North.
    >
    > I've mentioned many times why starting in the north was a non-starter, and you just ignore it or give nonsensical one-liners in response.
    >
    > Like the people who say HS2 should end at Old Oak Common, I think the 'start in the north' crowd are just people looking for excuses for the project to be cancelled without overtly saying so.

    Its a non-starter because the northern half isn't deemed to be important by the HS2 cheerleaders.

    And I'm overtly saying that HS2 should be cancelled.

    If construction had begun years ago, in particular in the North, then there would be much less chance of that now happening.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,982
    > @kle4 said:

    > Anecdotal, of course, but some of the tories I've met various mps say similar, not fans at all. But at least one is still backing him on the grounds only he can win a GE, and I know others who I dont know if they've met him who are definitely backers.
    >
    > Idk, it's hard for us to really know the competence at ministerial responsibilities candidates might have, and being PM is different to that as well, but not many seem to think Boris is effective at his job. Just that he might win.

    It's probably fair to say that the Foreign Office is particularly ill-suited to a mixture of cheery say-anything charisma and lack of preparation on detail. It's so easy to upset a delicate balance by an ill-judged remark. By contrast, being Mayor was mostly about projecting a positive image, and Boris is fine at that - significantly, the main criticisms were of specific Big Projects that he embraced.

    As PM it's hard to predict what he'd embrace (which gives people of all colours hope compared with rivals whose views seem to them fixed and repulsive) and he'd be pretty good at marshalling public support for whatever they were. But it'd be the Biggest Scary Ride Ever, as Trump might say.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,256
    kle4 said:

    They havent even started yet!? I feel like it has been underway most of my life. No wonder people are annoyed. You need to start pretty quickly with big stuff.
    (Snip)

    That depends how you define 'start'. There is a great deal of work going on, and has been for years. This is not the 'proper' construction works, but 'enabling' ones. TBF, when it means moving roads then there is a very fine line between the two.

    There's a very good website showing what's going on in various areas, e.g.
    https://hs2inherts.commonplace.is/schemes/proposals/west-hyde-maple-cross-rickmansworth/details
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > All is well in the real world. :)

    Not like this board which is crawling with racists.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,798
    > @williamglenn said:
    > Gove has a website: https://gove2019.com/


    You just know that hours were spent artfully choosing that cheapo manofthepeople ballpoint rather than some lacquered Montblanc jobbie.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,256
    Cyclefree said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > In response to @JosiasJessop (fpt):-

    >

    > “Yes, I know you disagree. But it is odd that whilst other 'different' groups need protection and get terms about their protection: e.g. Homophobia, misogyny/misandry or anti-Semitism, Muslims seem to be one group who people seem to complain about having such a term - as if they don't want that group to have the same protections as others.”

    >

    > If I may say so it is only odd because you are making a category error. It’s not a question of giving each group (however defined) protection from abuse or offence. It’s about not discriminating on the basis of characteristics which cannot be changed, which are inherent and which are irrelevant eg sex, sexuality, race. So discriminating or abusing someone because the colour of their skin is darker than yours is wrong. Criticising someone for what they believe is fine. Belief is a choice. Both may be offensive to the person concerned but offence should not be the basis on which something is prevented or legislated against.

    >

    > Muslims should no more be protected against abuse than Anglicans or Catholics or Seventh Day Adventists or Jehovah’s Witnesses.

    >

    > The demands for protections for Muslims is because people deliberately assume or conflate being Muslim with being dark-skinned, with being from particular countries - some because they want to attack them (the Tommy Robinson crowd) and some because they don’t want their religion to be criticised. We should not accept this dishonest conflation. I have written on the previous thread how one can deal with those who use one concept to mean another so won’t repeat it here.

    >

    > (Snip).

    >

    > I believe I responded to this on the previous thread.



    You did. I wrote this before I'd seen your reply. Thank you for the debate.



    Now for the great outside - birds singing, roses scenting, the gentle hum of bees, sun shining....



    All is well in the real world. :)

    Have fun. I'm about to go outside with the little 'un to plant some geraniums.

    Mrs J, it should be said, is almost allergic to the garden - except when it comes to picking our tomatoes. :)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,038
    ah009 said:

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > All is well in the real world. :)



    Not like this board which is crawling with racists.

    I'm not sure if that accusation is levelled at me. But if so I reject it.

    Anyway, stuff to do. If anyone has any good tips for the Derby send them my way! My last outing at Sandown was not very profitable so I'm hoping for better today.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > Absolutely no consensus for HS2 has been achieved nationally I expect given most people don't actually live in London, or one of the other big cities served. Certainly not up where I am, indeed the Sheffield link is the sort of afterthought that politicians based in the capital whose entire view of Yorkshire consists of Leeds would come up with. I expect sentiment is similar in the rural Tory constituencies in the south.
    >
    > This is low hanging fruit for both the Tory leadership contenders and the Brexit party.
    >
    > The "This piece of infrastructure shouldn't go ahead because I don't benefit from it" is an 'interesting' one.
    >
    > For instance, I don't object to the many upgrades going on in the north (and despite what TSE says, vast sums are being spent on the upgrades) just because I, living in Cambridge, don't directly benefit from them.
    >
    > Likewise, I rarely fly (in fact, I hate it), and yet am in favour of Heathrow expansion - because I can look a little wider than my own direct interests. This is because the indirect benefits should well advantage me.
    >
    > Not all infrastructure projects are beneficial, and indeed calculating benefits is a rather imprecise and vague 'science'. However the argument that a project should not go ahead just because someone does not directly benefit would stop *all* infrastructure projects in the country.
    >
    > Including ones you want.

    As a common justification of HS2 is that it will benefit the North its inevitable that people in the North will point out that HS2 will not benefit them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,256

    > @Pulpstar said:

    > Absolutely no consensus for HS2 has been achieved nationally I expect given most people don't actually live in London, or one of the other big cities served. Certainly not up where I am, indeed the Sheffield link is the sort of afterthought that politicians based in the capital whose entire view of Yorkshire consists of Leeds would come up with. I expect sentiment is similar in the rural Tory constituencies in the south.

    > This is low hanging fruit for both the Tory leadership contenders and the Brexit party.



    The preference for a station in the centre of Sheffield rather than at Meadowhall is another example of that.



    I cam across this justification for HS2 recently:



    ' Building Northern Powerhouse Rail without HS2 would be like constructing the M62 without the M1. '



    http://www.cityam.com/277940/debate-time-accept-sunk-cost-and-scrap-hs2



    I suspect there would be microscopically few users of the M62 who think its only justification is to link to the M1.

    I don't have time to read that, but are they saying it's the 'only' justification, or is that your interpretation?

    It's hard to argue that the M62 isn't part of a wider motorway 'network', and its utilisation and usefulness without that supporting network would be very different. Likewise, ideally HS2 and NPR should be planned as a network designed to get the best out of each other.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,038

    Cyclefree said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > In response to @JosiasJessop (fpt):-

    >

    > “Yes, I know you disagree. But it is odd that whilst other 'different' groups need protection and get terms about their protection: e.g. Homophobia, misogyny/misandry or anti-Semitism, Muslims seem to be one group who people seem to complain about having such a term - as if they don't want that group to have the same protections as others.”

    >

    > If I may say so it is only odd because you are making a category error. It’s not a question of giving each group (however defined) protection from abuse or offence. It’s about not discriminating on the basis of characteristics which cannot be changed, which are inherent and which are irrelevant eg sex, sexuality, race. So discriminating or abusing someone because the colour of their skin is darker than yours is wrong. Criticising someone for what they believe is fine. Belief is a choice. Both may be offensive to the person concerned but offence should not be the basis on which something is prevented or legislated against.

    >

    > Muslims should no more be protected against abuse than Anglicans or Catholics or Seventh Day Adventists or Jehovah’s Witnesses.

    >

    > The demands for protections for Muslims is because people deliberately assume or conflate being Muslim with being dark-skinned, with being from particular countries - some because they want to attack them (the Tommy Robinson crowd) and some because they don’t want their religion to be criticised. We should not accept this dishonest conflation. I have written on the previous thread how one can deal with those who use one concept to mean another so won’t repeat it here.

    >

    > (Snip).

    >

    > I believe I responded to this on the previous thread.



    You did. I wrote this before I'd seen your reply. Thank you for the debate.



    Now for the great outside - birds singing, roses scenting, the gentle hum of bees, sun shining....



    All is well in the real world. :)

    Have fun. I'm about to go outside with the little 'un to plant some geraniums.

    Mrs J, it should be said, is almost allergic to the garden - except when it comes to picking our tomatoes. :)
    Oh dear! My gardening is an extension of my mothering - now that mine are mostly grown and don't seem to need me much. :(

    All that nurturing and patience needs an outlet and plants, unlike children, don't answer back.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,455
    Gove's main message: "If we don't deliver Brexit before the next election, then Jeremy Corbyn could be in Downing Street."

    None of them seem to know what to do about an environment where the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party are the real opposition.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > Gove has a website: https://gove2019.com/
    >
    >
    > You just know that hours were spent artfully choosing that cheapo manofthepeople ballpoint rather than some lacquered Montblanc jobbie.

    So what does the jacket but no tie imagery supposed to represent ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,256


    Its a non-starter because the northern half isn't deemed to be important by the HS2 cheerleaders.



    And I'm overtly saying that HS2 should be cancelled.



    If construction had begun years ago, in particular in the North, then there would be much less chance of that now happening.

    I'm an HS2 cheerleader, and I think the northern half is very important, and have argued as such. So you are wrong. ;)

    But if we had 'started in the north' then you'd just be arguing that it's a bloody stupid thing to be doing, given the capacity constraints are mainly in the south.

    Also, if HS2 is cancelled, good luck in getting your own favoured infrastructure improvements though ...
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