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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead

In the past couple of days there have been three Westminster voting intention polls from different firms each with a different party in the lead. This is unprecedented. Here's Deltapoll https://t.co/nsMGtujNI8

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    First like...take your pick....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,435
    I wonder how long it will take Justin short straws to assert that Labour must be doing better than YouGov suggests...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,461
    edited June 2
    fourth like the Tories!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    Sam Gyimah is standing for PM

    Who
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,085
    Should the Lib Dems reach out to Change UK? Not in the sense of giving them anything but taking pity perhaps.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,170
    Here's one of Labour's problems. The latte-sipping hand-wringing crowd now make up a bigger slice of our voters than ever before. The thing is that for many such voters the same virtue signalling can be achieved whether they vote Labour, LibDem or Green. At the moment the two other flavours of right-onism are more appealing.

    Meanwhile, we've ignored our working class base and allowed these voters to drift away to populists and abstention.

    Basically, we are well on the road to being fecked.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,170
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
    >
    > Who

    Good news for everyone else worried that they might be bottom of the first ballot.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,636
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
    > >
    > > Who
    >
    > Good news for everyone else worried that they might be bottom of the first ballot.

    To be fair, he does at least have a unique pitch. It will be interesting to see how many MPs support him.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    > @OldKingCole said:
    > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!

    Really. How wrong can they be
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,661
    edited June 2

    Sam Gyimah is standing for PM



    Who

    I knew him well at university

    He’s a follower not a leader. Ineffectual and has a very high opinion of his own abilities

    (Former Goldman trainee. And we all know how high the bar is there don’t we @rcs1000 )
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,085
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
    >
    > Who

    He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    Delusion has infected our politics on a grand scale evidenced by Sam Gyimah standing for PM on a pro referendum remain ticket
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,709
    edited June 2
    deleted
    blockquotes
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,031
    24th like Sam Gyimah
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,170
    On topic, whichever party is actually ahead is of less consequence than the polls showing a 4-horse race. This is unprecedented and makes any sort of prediction of seat numbers total guesswork.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    > @Charles said:
    > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
    >
    >
    >
    > Who
    >
    > I knew him well at university
    >
    > He’s a follower not a leader. Ineffectual and has a very high opinion of his own abilities
    >
    > (Former Salomon Smith Barney banker but didn’t make the grade. Which is pretty low)

    His high opinion of himself is on full view on Sophy on Sunday
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722

    Here's one of Labour's problems. The latte-sipping hand-wringing crowd now make up a bigger slice of our voters than ever before. The thing is that for many such voters the same virtue signalling can be achieved whether they vote Labour, LibDem or Green. At the moment the two other flavours of right-onism are more appealing.



    Meanwhile, we've ignored our working class base and allowed these voters to drift away to populists and abstention.



    Basically, we are well on the road to being fecked.

    There is a geographical split as well. Ken Livingstone said a factor in the 1992 result was the leadership was out of touch with the aspirations of London voters. Now the leadership is almost entirely London MPs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    > @FF43 said:
    > Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"

    Give it a few weeks and you can have "First like Leave and Boris". Hope that helps....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    Tory leadership hopefuls demand to be heard, which is why so many have entered, I suspect. They want an audience. Sad thing is that only Rory Stewart has anything interesting to say. Not about Brexit, but the idea that politicians should focus on things where they can make a difference. It should be a message for an electorate jaded by abstract constitutional arguments. It doesn't seem to help Stewart; he only got 1% support in the last Tory leadership poll.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    Roger said:

    24th like Sam Gyimah

    Any chance of a professional review of the various candidates' videos?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    edited June 2
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @OldKingCole said:
    > > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!
    >
    > Really. How wrong can they be

    Er...... thank you.

    I think!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > Here's one of Labour's problems. The latte-sipping hand-wringing crowd now make up a bigger slice of our voters than ever before. The thing is that for many such voters the same virtue signalling can be achieved whether they vote Labour, LibDem or Green. At the moment the two other flavours of right-onism are more appealing.
    >
    > Meanwhile, we've ignored our working class base and allowed these voters to drift away to populists and abstention.
    >
    > Basically, we are well on the road to being fecked.

    Well of course, we have it tough. We don't even have the latte-sipping hand-wringers.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    edited June 2
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @FF43 said:
    > > Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"
    >
    > Give it a few weeks and you can have "First like Leave and Boris". Hope that helps....

    It was significant that Farage launched a thinly veiled attack on Boris last night. It does look very much as if Farage sees Boris as a threat
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,031
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > 24th like Sam Gyimah
    >
    > Any chance of a professional review of the various candidates' videos?

    Are they available to be seen?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,170
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Charles said:
    > > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Who
    > >
    > > I knew him well at university
    > >
    > > He’s a follower not a leader. Ineffectual and has a very high opinion of his own abilities
    > >
    > > (Former Salomon Smith Barney banker but didn’t make the grade. Which is pretty low)
    >
    > His high opinion of himself is on full view on Sophy on Sunday

    An arrogant Tory? Shocking!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,348
    Shocking that no bookie is offering odds on the first candidate to be knocked out...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,661

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM

    >

    > Who



    He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.

    Lack of talent and smarmy personal style would explain that
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Why would they when his tenure is very tenuous and may end on the 31st October
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > @FF43 said:
    > > > Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"
    > >
    > > Give it a few weeks and you can have "First like Leave and Boris". Hope that helps....
    >
    > It was significant that Farage launched a thinly veiled attack on Boris last night. It does look very much as if Farage sees Boris as a threat

    There's only room for one cock on a dung-heap!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @FF43 said:
    > > Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"
    >
    > Give it a few weeks and you can have "First like Leave and Boris". Hope that helps....

    _____________________

    Leave and Boris in a few weeks is highly possible. As it will be extremely chaotic, I wouldn't exactly say it helps. I'm just so hard to please...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,709


    An arrogant Tory? Shocking!

    An arrogant follower! Chasing his own tail with disdain.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    > @OldKingCole said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @OldKingCole said:
    > > > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!
    > >
    > > Really. How wrong can they be
    >
    > Er...... thank you.
    >
    > I think!

    I am a similar age and do not see how a polling company does not want your opinion
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 49,958

    Why would they when his tenure is very tenuous and may end on the 31st October

    He was a group leader until now. That's why he gets all those opportunities to rant on TV
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @OldKingCole said:
    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > > @OldKingCole said:
    > > > > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!
    > > >
    > > > Really. How wrong can they be
    > >
    > > Er...... thank you.
    > >
    > > I think!
    >
    > I am a similar age and do not see how a polling company does not want your opinion

    To be fair, I think they had enough 'over 80's' in their sample!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > On topic, whichever party is actually ahead is of less consequence than the polls showing a 4-horse race. This is unprecedented and makes any sort of prediction of seat numbers total guesswork.

    _______________________

    This is the key point. Polls work when they deal with incremental change. So they can track movement from, say Labour to Conservative. Because they know how many voted for reach party in the past they can be confident of their modelling. Big change upends their modelling.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,154
    Why are these Tories standing? They look silly and will do their cabinet careers no good at all.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    Roger said:

    > @DecrepitJohnL said:

    > 24th like Sam Gyimah

    >

    > Any chance of a professional review of the various candidates' videos?



    Are they available to be seen?

    Good question.

    Michael Gove's is

    Other than that, it might be a case of mining twitter feeds. There was some controversy about whether Rory was merely pretending to film himself.

    Dominic Raab put out this attacking Labour on antisemitism
    https://www.dominicraab2019.com/corbynsantisemitism

    (So far, only Sajid Javid has criticised Boris for Islamophobic language but I expect Dominic Raab will soon be all over it.)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,709
    Scott_P said:

    Why would they when his tenure is very tenuous and may end on the 31st October

    He was a group leader until now. That's why he gets all those opportunities to rant on TV
    Group captain or squadron leader?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,273
    Sam Gyimah lol
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,490
    edited June 2

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > > @OldKingCole said:

    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > > > > @OldKingCole said:

    > > > > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!

    > > >

    > > > Really. How wrong can they be

    > >

    > > Er...... thank you.

    > >

    > > I think!

    >

    > I am a similar age and do not see how a polling company does not want your opinion



    To be fair, I think they had enough 'over 80's' in their sample!

    They probably need to rebalance their panel to include a new category - "Conservative Party Leadership Candidates". They will outnumber the working class soon.

    Incidentally Sam Gyimah has just announced he's running.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,917
    tlg86 said:

    > @SandyRentool said:

    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM

    > >

    > > Who

    >

    > Good news for everyone else worried that they might be bottom of the first ballot.



    To be fair, he does at least have a unique pitch. It will be interesting to see how many MPs support him.

    what would that pitch be
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 2
    Jonathan said:

    Why are these Tories standing? They look silly and will do their cabinet careers no good at all.

    To be fair the chances of ever being in cabinet again are rapidly diminishing, so not much of a loss...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,154
    My cat has some fluff where its balls used to be. It is my privilege to announce that it has put its name forward to be leader of the Conservative party. It claims its personal story puts it in a unique position to lead the party and country through no deal Brexit.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM

    >

    > Who



    He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.

    To be fair to the Tories, Sam Giyamah was PPS to Cameron, a junior whip then a minister until he resigned over Brexit.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,170
    > @malcolmg said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    >
    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    >
    > > > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Who
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Good news for everyone else worried that they might be bottom of the first ballot.
    >
    >
    >
    > To be fair, he does at least have a unique pitch. It will be interesting to see how many MPs support him.
    >
    > what would that pitch be

    Oxford PPE. Unique amongst our political class.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722

    Roger said:

    > @DecrepitJohnL said:

    > 24th like Sam Gyimah

    >

    > Any chance of a professional review of the various candidates' videos?



    Are they available to be seen?

    Good question.

    Michael Gove's is

    Other than that, it might be a case of mining twitter feeds. There was some controversy about whether Rory was merely pretending to film himself.

    Dominic Raab put out this attacking Labour on antisemitism
    https://www.dominicraab2019.com/corbynsantisemitism

    (So far, only Sajid Javid has criticised Boris for Islamophobic language but I expect Dominic Raab will soon be all over it.)
    Update: this is Dominic Raab's campaign video:
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648
    Are any of the parties on 20%+ in all three of these opinion polls?
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 187
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Sam Gyimah lol

    He's my MP. In the unlikely event that he gets to the final two it will feel weird not voting for him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,744
    > @isam said:
    > Are any of the parties on 20%+ in all three of these opinion polls?

    Cheeky.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,154
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    >
    > > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Who
    >
    >
    >
    > He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.
    >
    > To be fair to the Tories, Sam Giyamah was PPS to Cameron, a junior whip then a minister until he resigned over Brexit.
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah

    Oh come on! He thinks that CV qualifies him to be prime minister? Nuts. I know we’re not what we once were, but let’s have some self respect. The bare minimum should be some demonstrable political success in a (shadow) cabinet or senior parliamentary or party role.

    Hunt, Gove and Boris (for his mayoralty). That’s about it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,661

    > @OldKingCole said:

    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > > > @OldKingCole said:

    > > > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!

    > >

    > > Really. How wrong can they be

    >

    > Er...... thank you.

    >

    > I think!



    I am a similar age and do not see how a polling company does not want your opinion

    They want a demographically balanced sample

    It isn’t personal!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,017


    Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...



    The suggestion here is that the party most commonly pilloried by its rivals over the university tuition fees debacle may be developing a core demographic - centred on voters with a high level of education. Oh, the irony!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,661

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM

    >

    > Who



    He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.

    To be fair to the Tories, Sam Giyamah was PPS to Cameron, a junior whip then a minister until he resigned over Brexit.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah
    And that qualifies him to be PM how, exactly?

    (As an aside, he was appointed PPS because David liked to “collect” minorities to prove what a good guy he was. He was appointed whip to get rid of him when David realised how useless he was)
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 768
    I suppose the biggest surprise is that so many people want to inherit the omni-shambles that awaits them.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,186
    edited June 2
    Adulatory, broadly uncritical coverage of Trump's visit over on Broadcasting House. It's in moments like these that the "left-wing BBC" tabloid imagination is long gone.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,186
    edited June 2
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    3 backers and a similar level of non-tory public support to the other "back five" or so candidates, which is not bad for someone who was a virtual national unknown until last week ; and goes against the twitter spin about his "utter rejection" a couple of nights ago in the poll.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    Charles said:

    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM

    >

    > Who



    He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.

    To be fair to the Tories, Sam Giyamah was PPS to Cameron, a junior whip then a minister until he resigned over Brexit.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah
    And that qualifies him to be PM how, exactly?

    (As an aside, he was appointed PPS because David liked to “collect” minorities to prove what a good guy he was. He was appointed whip to get rid of him when David realised how useless he was)
    Well, it means Sam Giyamah has more experience of government than either Cameron or Blair when they entered Number 10. But I shan't be wagering on Sam this time round.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,186
    edited June 2
    Left-wing BBC "of" tabloid imagination, it should say below.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,886
    edited June 2
    > @WhisperingOracle said:
    > left-wing BBC "of" fond tabloid imagination, it should say below.

    I often think it's the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation now. Particularly when the Eastern Region's political correspondent is on!

    Maybe I'm just getting over-sensitive.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    Jonathan said:

    > @DecrepitJohnL said:

    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:

    >

    > > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Who

    >

    >

    >

    > He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.

    >

    > To be fair to the Tories, Sam Giyamah was PPS to Cameron, a junior whip then a minister until he resigned over Brexit.

    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah



    Oh come on! He thinks that CV qualifies him to be prime minister? Nuts. I know we’re not what we once were, but let’s have some self respect. The bare minimum should be some demonstrable political success in a (shadow) cabinet or senior parliamentary or party role.



    Hunt, Gove and Boris (for his mayoralty). That’s about it.

    Even Gove is pushing it since although he has banned straws and annoyed history teachers, he has not occupied any of the top jobs. Hunt and Javid hold two of the great offices of state. The Chancellor is not running.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,917





    Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...







    The suggestion here is that the party most commonly pilloried by its rivals over the university tuition fees debacle may be developing a core demographic - centred on voters with a high level of education. Oh, the irony!
    the lying fakers will be found out soon enough, flash in the pan for Euros. Who would be stupid enough to want the Lib Dems running anything.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,371
    Betfair has a market on number of MP ballots for the Tory leadership contest.
    5 or more is 2.82 currently. Unless I'm getting something wrong, for this bet to lose either a) Tories change rules mid contest b) 4+ candidates drop out before the ballot and no one new decides to run.

    Also, have chucked £2 on Adam afriyie to be next leader. The rationale is - he probably reckons he's up to it and I really want to win a 999/1 bet one day.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    Is there a market for who comes bottom of the Conservative leadership election ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    >
    > > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Who
    >
    >
    >
    > He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.
    >
    > To be fair to the Tories, Sam Giyamah was PPS to Cameron, a junior whip then a minister until he resigned over Brexit.
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah
    >
    > And that qualifies him to be PM how, exactly?
    >
    > (As an aside, he was appointed PPS because David liked to “collect” minorities to prove what a good guy he was. He was appointed whip to get rid of him when David realised how useless he was)
    >
    > Well, it means Sam Giyamah has more experience of government than either Cameron or Blair when they entered Number 10. But I shan't be wagering on Sam this time round.

    My wallet says Go Sam! I have a wild £2 bet on him from yonks ago, at huge odds.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,371
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    >
    > :tired_face:

    Hypothetically if all Tory MPs run and vote for themselves, we will have deadlock in the voting system right?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070
    > @rkrkrk said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > >
    > >
    > > :tired_face:
    >
    > Hypothetically if all Tory MPs run and vote for themselves, we will have deadlock in the voting system right?

    Some of the contenders are suffering from delusions of adequacy.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722

    Is there a market for who comes bottom of the Conservative leadership election ?

    There probably will be once declarations close in a week or so.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,798
    Sam Gyimah. Our party has become a joke. Let's get on with the first few rounds and eliminate all of the losers. She should have resigned on the day so the race timetable would be set by now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070
    > @Black_Rook said:
    >
    >
    > Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...
    >
    >
    >
    > The suggestion here is that the party most commonly pilloried by its rivals over the university tuition fees debacle may be developing a core demographic - centred on voters with a high level of education. Oh, the irony!

    Lib Dem support in areas of historic strength, like Devon and Cornwall, has cratered, (largely because such support was radical but eurosceptic) but they're making up for it in wealthy parts of the Home Counties and the M3/M4 corridors.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    We could end up with Gove having most MPs votes in final round, but Boris going with him to the membership and the latter winning a landslide.

    Tory Party would then be like Lab - saddled by membership with someone they don't want.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,154
    Wonder how many PMs we might have this year. Certainly 2. Easily 3. Possibly 4.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,348
    edited June 2
    > @rkrkrk said:
    > Betfair has a market on number of MP ballots for the Tory leadership contest.
    > 5 or more is 2.82 currently. Unless I'm getting something wrong, for this bet to lose either a) Tories change rules mid contest b) 4+ candidates drop out before the ballot and no one new decides to run.
    >
    > Also, have chucked £2 on Adam afriyie to be next leader. The rationale is - he probably reckons he's up to it and I really want to win a 999/1 bet one day.

    I suspect there will be quite a few candidates dropping out after a ballot or two. We should remember that 2 of 5 candidates dropped out last time (albeit one after the MPs ballots). I slightly suspect a few are running with the hope of being bought off later on.

    Almost 2/1 is still pretty good though. Might have a nibble.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    edited June 2
    > @Black_Rook said:
    >
    >
    > Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...

    _________________________

    The Lib Dems have a simple and fairly powerful message in Scotland: We are the only party that supports union with England and with the rest of Europe. That's the constitutional position of essentially all Labour voters that didn't defect to the SNP in 2014 and half of Conservative voters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @rkrkrk said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > :tired_face:
    > >
    > > Hypothetically if all Tory MPs run and vote for themselves, we will have deadlock in the voting system right?
    >
    > Some of the contenders are suffering from delusions of adequacy.

    See:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/01/grotesque-tory-leadership-race-feeding-contenders-egos/

    Bizarrely, Daley sees Graham Brady as the solution to too many candidates. Others should realise he is sane and has authority and drop out. If I have understood her argument.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    Andrea Leadsom very unconvincing on Marr
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @rkrkrk said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > :tired_face:
    > >
    > > Hypothetically if all Tory MPs run and vote for themselves, we will have deadlock in the voting system right?
    >
    > Some of the contenders are suffering from delusions of adequacy.

    Legends in their own lunchtime.

    Not even household names in their own household.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,522

    We could end up with Gove having most MPs votes in final round, but Boris going with him to the membership and the latter winning a landslide.



    Tory Party would then be like Lab - saddled by membership with someone they don't want.

    Parliament will VONC Johnson and install Gove if Gove agrees to ask EU for further extension which I think is his position.

    Parliament can't use VONC on Corbyn (yet).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,257
    > @rottenborough said:
    > We could end up with Gove having most MPs votes in final round, but Boris going with him to the membership and the latter winning a landslide.
    >
    > Tory Party would then be like Lab - saddled by membership with someone they don't want.

    Worse than that. The COUNTRY would be saddled with someone they don't want.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    One issue that has to be addressed by the 1922 is to take action to prevent derisory numbers of mps vying in future leadership elections
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,220
    Andrea Leadsom on Marr says she will talk to all parties but rules out a formal alliance
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,220
    > @rottenborough said:
    >

    Gyimah the first Tory leadership candidate then to propose EUref2
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 955
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    The TMay effect. She was so crap people truly believe anyone can become PM.

    See the Dem Primary to a similar effect of Trump becoming President.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,917
    FF43 said:

    > @Black_Rook said:

    >



    >

    > Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...



    _________________________



    The Lib Dems have a simple and fairly powerful message in Scotland: We are the only party that supports union with England and with the rest of Europe. That's the constitutional position of essentially all Labour voters that didn't defect to the SNP in 2014 and half of Conservative voters.
    LOL, they are bottom feeders in Scotland, a joke. Rennie is dire and they are fixated on No More Referendums we must remain subservient subjects of England. They scrabble about hoping to be best of the losers at the bottom end of the pile. If not for the voting system they would could not fill a phone box.
    Rennie makes Leonard almost look good.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,371
    > @Quincel said:
    > > @rkrkrk said:
    > > Betfair has a market on number of MP ballots for the Tory leadership contest.
    > > 5 or more is 2.82 currently. Unless I'm getting something wrong, for this bet to lose either a) Tories change rules mid contest b) 4+ candidates drop out before the ballot and no one new decides to run.
    > >
    > > Also, have chucked £2 on Adam afriyie to be next leader. The rationale is - he probably reckons he's up to it and I really want to win a 999/1 bet one day.
    >
    > I suspect there will be quite a few candidates dropping out after a ballot or two. We should remember that 2 of 5 candidates dropped out last time (albeit one after the MPs ballots). I slightly suspect a few are running with the hope of being bought off later on.
    >
    > Almost 2/1 is still pretty good though. Might have a nibble.

    Ah yes thanks, hadn't thought of candidates dropping out after the ballots have started. Suspected it was too good to be true!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,085
    Trump's state visit will be a fitting end to Theresa May's premiership. A desperate incoherent mess.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,191
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > One issue that has to be addressed by the 1922 is to take action to prevent derisory numbers of mps vying in future leadership elections

    It's easily done, require 5% of MPs to sign nominating papers
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,744
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    > @malcolmg said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...
    >
    >
    >
    > _________________________
    >
    >
    >
    > The Lib Dems have a simple and fairly powerful message in Scotland: We are the only party that supports union with England and with the rest of Europe. That's the constitutional position of essentially all Labour voters that didn't defect to the SNP in 2014 and half of Conservative voters.
    >
    > LOL, they are bottom feeders in Scotland, a joke. Rennie is dire and they are fixated on No More Referendums we must remain subservient subjects of England. They scrabble about hoping to be best of the losers at the bottom end of the pile. If not for the voting system they would could not fill a phone box.
    > Rennie makes Leonard almost look good.

    ++++++++++++++++++

    Supporting both unions is a minority position, but a large and easily understood one, which the Lib Dems have to themselves.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,257
    > @another_richard said:
    > Is there a market for who comes bottom of the Conservative leadership election ?

    There is an honourable Tory tradition of that being Liam Fox. And there is still time for him to declare and thus end the debate on this matter. If he doesn't - and I sense that he won't - then it is up for grabs. Almost as exciting as who wins in many ways. Gun to head, I would plump for Kit Malthouse. Ok, so he has a 'compromise' named after him, at first sight a great asset. But compromise is a dirty word these days. I see him being punished for it. Bottom. Wooden spoon. Nil points.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,348
    > @HYUFD said:
    > Andrea Leadsom on Marr says she will talk to all parties but rules out a formal alliance

    I really don't know why we push people to confirm their post-election stances so early, given how much is unknown. At this stage we could have different leaders of Con/Lab/LD by the next election, we have no idea what their Brexit stance would be or what compromise stance they might be willing to accept. And we have no idea what the balance of MPs in the Commons would be. So how can anyone rule out almost anything?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 955
    I'm looking forward to the next polling matters podcast......
  • isamisam Posts: 27,648
    Any other, aka The Brexit Party, 7/1

    ... and you get Change UK for free! 🤣


This discussion has been closed.