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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove – the case against

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,477
    > @DavidL said:
    > On to much more serious matters, am I alone in being slightly nervous about Pakistan today? They have had such an abysmal run, got blown away by the Windies but always have that one performance in them. They are off to a goodish start.

    You are by no means alone. Bringing on Ali and Wood seems to have helped but losing a review hasn't. Is the fielding up to scratch?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,477
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    >
    > > Mr. Voter, PR is the work of Satan. An already fragmenting body politic does not need the insanity of a system that permanently embeds such fragmentation.
    >
    >
    >
    > If you are happy with a party getting an overall majority on 35% of the vote, then fine.
    >
    >
    >
    > I find it an affront to democracy. Even when my team wins.
    >
    > Everyone is in favour of PR till they're suddenly Prime Minister on ~35% of the vote... Johnson, Corbyn or Nige will be no different.

    I'm not sure Nige is in favour of voting at all.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 5,382
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. kinabalu, I look forward to the compelling attempt :p
    >

    Attempt? - That does not sound too optimistic.
    :smile:

    Starting now anyway. I have the title.

    "The British Disease: Why private education is wrong in principle and harmful in practice."

    I will submit as a Thread Header when I've finished it. My debut.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,600
    Anyone surprised about the Galloway sacking?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,943
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Voter, PR is the work of Satan. An already fragmenting body politic does not need the insanity of a system that permanently embeds such fragmentation.

    Don't be silly, MD. Plenty of mature democracies function perfectly well with it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,477
    > @OldKingCole said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > On to much more serious matters, am I alone in being slightly nervous about Pakistan today? They have had such an abysmal run, got blown away by the Windies but always have that one performance in them. They are off to a goodish start.
    >
    > You are by no means alone. Bringing on Ali and Wood seems to have helped but losing a review hasn't. Is the fielding up to scratch?

    Prescient post about bringing on Ali. At least, I'm claiming it!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,056
    > @Floater said:
    > Anyone surprised about the Galloway sacking?
    >
    >

    (tumbleweed)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,056
    > @OldKingCole said:
    > > @OldKingCole said:
    > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > On to much more serious matters, am I alone in being slightly nervous about Pakistan today? They have had such an abysmal run, got blown away by the Windies but always have that one performance in them. They are off to a goodish start.
    > >
    > > You are by no means alone. Bringing on Ali and Wood seems to have helped but losing a review hasn't. Is the fielding up to scratch?
    >
    > Prescient post about bringing on Ali. At least, I'm claiming it!

    16/1 (3.20) last 5 overs has steadied this considerably.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    edited June 3
    Thanks for the OP article, Mr Doethur.

    However: my dad knows, and did business with, many farmers. He says if there is one factor that unites all farmers, it is complaining. Complaining about the weather, complaining about the paperwork, complaining about the grockles, complaining about not having reasons to complain.

    Sadly, my experience of teachers is the same. The ones I know complain endlessly, and some seem to have little knowledge about reality for workers in other industries. They're all nice people, but too many appear to operate in a little educational bubble.

    (runs for cover)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120
    I’ve started to unwind my exposure on Boris this morning.

    Much to my annoyance I think he could creep his way to the final.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,661
    May's advertising of the Brexit party with her repeated "Brexit means Brexit" tautology was quite something in hindsight.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 345
    I just showed some of my politics students some of the leadership candidates' launch videos - Hunt and Raab went down surprisingly well. Gove produced laughter and a very negative reaction.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,825
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > I’ve started to unwind my exposure on Boris this morning.
    >
    > Much to my annoyance I think he could creep his way to the final.

    That advert is just way ahead of anything anyone else has offered, as a way forward for the Conservative Party. Rory included.

    Boris can connect. Simple as that.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,512
    > @kinabalu said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > Mr. kinabalu, I look forward to the compelling attempt :p
    > >
    >
    > Attempt? - That does not sound too optimistic.
    > :smile:
    >
    > Starting now anyway. I have the title.
    >
    > "The British Disease: Why private education is wrong in principle and harmful in practice."
    >
    > I will submit as a Thread Header when I've finished it. My debut.

    Look forward to reading it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,413

    > @DavidL said:

    > We ought to question whether education actually serves any useful purpose at all. Surely all it does is indoctrinate young people with such invidious notions as concern about climate change and supporting EU membership. Perhaps a return to more deferential times - when the chap in the manor with his obvious breeding did all the thinking for us - is the productive alternative.

    >

    > The SNP, in fairness, are making progress in this direction. Economics has already been dropped out of the State system. Wouldn't want too many people knowing about that. English seems to be being reduced to a fan club for Jackie Kay whose doggerel is not worth the time of day but is pals with Nicola. History is mainly about how we should be ashamed of our role in the slave trade and English imperialism. I could go on.





    You seem a little jaundiced, has the current state of the UK (which you appear to have voted into being) reduced you to coarse caricature?



    I'm sort of clear over Ruth's latest position on school testing (with her usual admirable consistency, it's entirely different from her previous one), but any updates on the brave, new policies that are going to energise the debate on Scottish education? Is one of them *whispers* No to indy ref II?

    The sad truth, which I am willing to acknowledge, is that Ruth apart the Tories are not exactly lipping over with talent in Scotland either and she can't do everything.

    There is a lot to do in our education. Curriculum for Excellence is a disaster, the over bureaucratisation of pupil attainment is frustrating, the no fees rules mean that there are not enough funded places for Scottish children at University, the College system has lost any pretence of rigour in its marking with the loss of externalised assessment, the new National 4s are a waste of time barely 1 step up on the school leaving certificates that were handed out in the 1950s, it is really abysmal. But I'm not pretending that the Tories have the answers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > I’ve started to unwind my exposure on Boris this morning.

    >

    > Much to my annoyance I think he could creep his way to the final.



    That advert is just way ahead of anything anyone else has offered, as a way forward for the Conservative Party. Rory included.



    Boris can connect. Simple as that.

    I actually think it’s rather average, but no-one else does.

    I have to base my betting on what I think will happen rather than what I want to happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,661
    edited June 3
    And how many of those votes are Labour getting back if the pollsters consistently show Labour and the Lib Dems around the same score ?
    In fact I'd argue it doesn't even matter what the 'consistent' polling score is, the outliers will be pumped up by the media looking for a change narrative (Also applies to Tory/BXP prospects)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 49,501
    edited June 3
    HYUFD said:

    Brokenshire urges the least popular Tory leadership candidates to pull out



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48493432

    Until a vote how do they know for sure who is least popular?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,413
    houndtang said:

    I just showed some of my politics students some of the leadership candidates' launch videos - Hunt and Raab went down surprisingly well. Gove produced laughter and a very negative reaction.

    If you really wanted them to have a laugh you should have shown them Sajid's video. I would call it amateur but that would be completely unfair. On amateurs.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,056
    > @kle4 said:
    > Brokenshire urges the least popular Tory leadership candidates to pull out
    >
    >
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48493432
    >
    > Until a vote how do they know for sure who is least popular?

    Everyone else, obviously.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,505
    I see that the World's biggest snowflake is calling for a boycott of AT&T because CNN is mean to him. i.e. It accurately reports things he says and does.

    I believe that if people stoped using or subscribing to @ATT, they would be forced to make big changes at @CNN, which is dying in the ratings anyway. It is so unfair with such bad, Fake News! Why wouldn’t they act. When the World watches @CNN, it gets a false picture of USA. Sad!

    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 3 June 2019
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,477
    edited June 3
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > I’ve started to unwind my exposure on Boris this morning.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Much to my annoyance I think he could creep his way to the final.
    >
    >
    >
    > That advert is just way ahead of anything anyone else has offered, as a way forward for the Conservative Party. Rory included.
    >
    >
    >
    > Boris can connect. Simple as that.
    >
    > I actually think it’s rather average, but no-one else does.
    >
    > I have to base my betting on what I think will happen rather than what I want to happen.

    Betting on what you want to happen is known as contributing to bookmakers retirement funds.

    And Ali's just taken another wicket. A run rate of 5.45 is much more realistic.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,701
    The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,056
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    Potentially, yes.

    Biggest mystery since D Miliband being 25s for the Labour leadership as recently as last year, then 40s for a bit!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,943
    The John Harris article mentioned earlier in the thread is very good:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/03/britain-remainers-no-deal-brexit-tribal-war

    But what does he mean by this ?
    "...As the only means of averting catastrophe, I think I still hesitantly favour another referendum, albeit one presented in terms that supporters of a so-called people’s vote have barely touched...."

    If you're going to inveigh about the unproductive, divisive Brexit debate, at least give us a clue as to what your catastrophe averting referendum solution might entail.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,122

    The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    How much money would that require?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,056
    > @matt said:
    > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.
    >
    > How much money would that require?

    Very interesting question.

    If you can convince the market that 8/1 is correct, potentially not that much. You're trying to nudge the market without actually placing too many trades (other than sockpuppets)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,661
    Nigelb said:

    The John Harris article mentioned earlier in the thread is very good:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/03/britain-remainers-no-deal-brexit-tribal-war



    But what does he mean by this ?

    "...As the only means of averting catastrophe, I think I still hesitantly favour another referendum, albeit one presented in terms that supporters of a so-called people’s vote have barely touched...."



    If you're going to inveigh about the unproductive, divisive Brexit debate, at least give us a clue as to what your catastrophe averting referendum solution might entail.

    A genuine confirmatory vote not presupposing leave or remain on the deal being rejected.So it could have the status quo ante as an indefinite extension of A50 till the conditions are met for a satisfactory EU exit (So in practice with this parliament never)
    But implicit options listed as follows:

    Revocation if a Lab minority dependant on Lib Dems votes come to power;
    Simply exiting on a given date if Farage comes to power
    Another referendum on leaving without a deal vs remaining in (Seeing as the deal has been rejected)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,573
    > @matt said:
    > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.
    >
    > How much money would that require?

    Depends how confident you are of being able to get out before the mugs
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120

    The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    But who?

    That must be costing a fortune.

    The course of action for punters is obvious.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120

    > @matt said:

    > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    >

    > How much money would that require?



    Very interesting question.



    If you can convince the market that 8/1 is correct, potentially not that much. You're trying to nudge the market without actually placing too many trades (other than sockpuppets)

    The Rubio of 2019.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,825
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > I’ve started to unwind my exposure on Boris this morning.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Much to my annoyance I think he could creep his way to the final.
    >
    >
    >
    > That advert is just way ahead of anything anyone else has offered, as a way forward for the Conservative Party. Rory included.
    >
    >
    >
    > Boris can connect. Simple as that.
    >
    > I actually think it’s rather average, but no-one else does.
    >
    > I have to base my betting on what I think will happen rather than what I want to happen.

    Average when everything else is (to be generous) below average still gets to the top of the heap.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,877
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    You’re forgiven.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,584
    edited June 3
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.


    Not me, but I do remember someone else (obviously!) making that point.

    Edit: mystery solved.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120
    DavidL said:

    houndtang said:

    I just showed some of my politics students some of the leadership candidates' launch videos - Hunt and Raab went down surprisingly well. Gove produced laughter and a very negative reaction.

    If you really wanted them to have a laugh you should have shown them Sajid's video. I would call it amateur but that would be completely unfair. On amateurs.
    It was just inexplicably dull.

    Why did he do it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120
    IanB2 said:

    > @matt said:

    > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    >

    > How much money would that require?



    Depends how confident you are of being able to get out before the mugs

    She’s now my biggest lay.

    (sorry)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,795

    > @matt said:

    > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    >

    > How much money would that require?



    Very interesting question.



    If you can convince the market that 8/1 is correct, potentially not that much. You're trying to nudge the market without actually placing too many trades (other than sockpuppets)

    The Rubio of 2019.
    Betfair says £142,783 on her market. But I'm not a BF expert enough to say exactly what that means.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,795
    I have suggested Leadsom as dark horse in this contest in the past. But can't see much evidence of any kind of take-off so far.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,795
    Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120

    I have suggested Leadsom as dark horse in this contest in the past. But can't see much evidence of any kind of take-off so far.

    She might be holding some MPs back to give her some late momentum. But two questions:

    Who? (Out of who is yet to declare might do that)

    Why? (Why risk giving the other candidates so much momentum)

    I can only conclude people are assuming that what happened in 2016 (under very different circumstances) will happen all over again, and she might make it to the final with a centrist like Hunt, and then win.
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,179
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    Stuff like this is so cringe. Clearly Trump isn't going to see it. It's bad enough that Sadiq Khan is making London seem so small time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120

    Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???





    I could just as easily see him revoke “for the time being” at the last minute too.

    He might also be the last Tory PM.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,932
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus has just updated the headline prediction:
    >
    >
    >
    > Brexit Party 249 seats (+249)
    >
    > Labour 216 seats (-46)
    >
    > SNP 56 seats (+21)
    >
    > Conservatives 54 seats (-264)
    >
    > Lib Dems 51 seats (+39)
    >
    > Plaid Cymru 5 seats (+1)
    >
    > Green 1 seat (nc)
    >
    > NI 18 seats (nc)
    >
    >
    >
    > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
    >
    >
    >
    > #RuthForFM
    >
    > When TBP wins the next general election who will actually be our PM?

    It has to be the only person with ministerial experience - Ann Widdecombe.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 3

    The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    Leadsom's Betfair graph shows a £2,000 chunk waiting at 7.2 which would have the opposite effect.

    Leadsom is now clear third favourite at 7/1 but that is because Raab has drifted out past her to 12 or 14/1. Jeremy Hunt has come in a bit to 12 or 14/1 and Boris is tightening at the head of the market to 13/8. Sajid Javid at 28/1 is longer than Rory at 22/1 which seems odd. Sajid will be disappointed at that. Anti-hero of pb Michael Gove is 7/2 second-best.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

    ETA if you do fancy a wager, compare the next PM and next leader markets as they can get out of sync from time to time.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,907

    Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???





    That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,228

    I have suggested Leadsom as dark horse in this contest in the past. But can't see much evidence of any kind of take-off so far.

    She might be holding some MPs back to give her some late momentum. But two questions:

    Who? (Out of who is yet to declare might do that)

    Why? (Why risk giving the other candidates so much momentum)

    I can only conclude people are assuming that what happened in 2016 (under very different circumstances) will happen all over again, and she might make it to the final with a centrist like Hunt, and then win.
    There is a potential path for Andrea Leadsom: If Boris implodes, moderates and the saner kind of Leaver will want to stop Raab, and might coalesce around her as a less bad alternative acceptable to party members. But I think it's fairly unlikely given her starting position in terms of MP endorsements.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,120

    The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    Leadsom's Betfair graph shows a £2,000 chunk waiting at 7.2 which would have the opposite effect.

    Leadsom is now clear third favourite at 7/1 but that is because Raab has drifted out past her to 12 or 14/1. Jeremy Hunt has come in a bit to 12 or 14/1 and Boris is tightening at the head of the market to 13/8. Sajid Javid at 28/1 is longer than Rory at 22/1 which seems odd. Sajid will be disappointed at that. Anti-hero of pb Michael Gove is 7/2 second-best.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister


    Rory Stewart is a clear lay too.

    He’s been (unfairly, in my view) painted as a Remainaic which will heavily count against him in the contest.

    However, I expect either him, Gymiah or (if they both drop) Hancock to pick up the ultras.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,477
    > @Chris said:
    > > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > > Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus has just updated the headline prediction:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Brexit Party 249 seats (+249)
    > >
    > > Labour 216 seats (-46)
    > >
    > > SNP 56 seats (+21)
    > >
    > > Conservatives 54 seats (-264)
    > >
    > > Lib Dems 51 seats (+39)
    > >
    > > Plaid Cymru 5 seats (+1)
    > >
    > > Green 1 seat (nc)
    > >
    > > NI 18 seats (nc)
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > #RuthForFM
    > >
    > > When TBP wins the next general election who will actually be our PM?
    >
    > It has to be the only person with ministerial experience - Ann Widdecombe.

    I really, really don't want any of what you're smoking.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 19,939
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > The John Harris article mentioned earlier in the thread is very good:
    >
    > https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/03/britain-remainers-no-deal-brexit-tribal-war
    >
    >
    >
    > But what does he mean by this ?
    >
    > "...As the only means of averting catastrophe, I think I still hesitantly favour another referendum, albeit one presented in terms that supporters of a so-called people’s vote have barely touched...."
    >
    >
    >
    > If you're going to inveigh about the unproductive, divisive Brexit debate, at least give us a clue as to what your catastrophe averting referendum solution might entail.
    >
    > A genuine confirmatory vote not presupposing leave or remain on the deal being rejected.So it could have the status quo ante as an indefinite extension of A50 till the conditions are met for a satisfactory EU exit (So in practice with this parliament never)
    > But implicit options listed as follows:
    >
    > Revocation if a Lab minority dependant on Lib Dems votes come to power;
    > Simply exiting on a given date if Farage comes to power
    > Another referendum on leaving without a deal vs remaining in (Seeing as the deal has been rejected)

    The problem is that Remain has also been rejected. I don't see how you can exclude leaving with a deal and yet keep in Remain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 36,472
    > @glw said:
    > I bet queenie is really looking forward to today....
    >
    > She probably is, there will be some subtle symbolism or words that will pass right over Trump's head but that indicate the true level of esteem that the Queen has for Trump.

    Well she has already told him that no room at the inn...buck palace is apparently fully booked.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,512
    > @rottenborough said:
    > > @matt said:
    >
    > > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > How much money would that require?
    >
    >
    >
    > Very interesting question.
    >
    >
    >
    > If you can convince the market that 8/1 is correct, potentially not that much. You're trying to nudge the market without actually placing too many trades (other than sockpuppets)
    >
    > The Rubio of 2019.
    >
    > Betfair says £142,783 on her market. But I'm not a BF expert enough to say exactly what that means.

    The distribution of her market looks like there are more people looking to bet against her at 7 - 7.4, and fewer looking to back her at longer odds (7.6 - 8). Boris also looks similar.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,661
    @Richard_Tyndall My proposal doesn't keep 'remain' in anything like as hard as most remain campaigners would like. Specifically Article 50 is not revoked and another extension is applied for if 'the deal' is rejected.
    A further no deal vs remain referendum decides whether A50 is revoked or not. That gives Brexit every chance, as it is the situation a priori to the deal being confirmed or not (An unusual use of the public's time I agree but not an existential question in the way leaving or remaining is)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,056
    > @rkrkrk said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > @matt said:
    > >
    > > > The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > How much money would that require?
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Very interesting question.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > If you can convince the market that 8/1 is correct, potentially not that much. You're trying to nudge the market without actually placing too many trades (other than sockpuppets)
    > >
    > > The Rubio of 2019.
    > >
    > > Betfair says £142,783 on her market. But I'm not a BF expert enough to say exactly what that means.
    >
    > The distribution of her market looks like there are more people looking to bet against her at 7 - 7.4, and fewer looking to back her at longer odds (7.6 - 8). Boris also looks similar.
    >
    >

    That is a strange betting strategy. If you think Leadsom is fundamentally too short, then undercutting the market slightly (trying to get 7.2 instead of 7.8 for example) is silly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,943
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > The John Harris article mentioned earlier in the thread is very good:
    > >
    > > https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/03/britain-remainers-no-deal-brexit-tribal-war

    > > But what does he mean by this ?
    > >
    > > "...As the only means of averting catastrophe, I think I still hesitantly favour another referendum, albeit one presented in terms that supporters of a so-called people’s vote have barely touched...."

    > > If you're going to inveigh about the unproductive, divisive Brexit debate, at least give us a clue as to what your catastrophe averting referendum solution might entail.
    > >
    > > A genuine confirmatory vote not presupposing leave or remain on the deal being rejected.So it could have the status quo ante as an indefinite extension of A50 till the conditions are met for a satisfactory EU exit (So in practice with this parliament never)
    > > But implicit options listed as follows:
    > >
    > > Revocation if a Lab minority dependant on Lib Dems votes come to power;
    > > Simply exiting on a given date if Farage comes to power
    > > Another referendum on leaving without a deal vs remaining in (Seeing as the deal has been rejected)
    >
    > The problem is that Remain has also been rejected. I don't see how you can exclude leaving with a deal and yet keep in Remain.

    A fair comment.
    Any referendum surely has to encompass both leaving without a deal and remain, as between them they appear to account for considerably more than half the electorate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,795


    Brexit is going to destroy the Conservative Party isn't it?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.

    But they can, they will VONC him if he doesn't seek an extension. If he still refuses they would appoint anther PM who was willing to extend.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 36,472
    England are going to lose this cricket match...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,255
    > @kinabalu said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > Mr. kinabalu, I look forward to the compelling attempt :p
    > >
    >
    > Attempt? - That does not sound too optimistic.
    > :smile:
    >
    > Starting now anyway. I have the title.
    >
    > "The British Disease: Why private education is wrong in principle and harmful in practice."
    >
    > I will submit as a Thread Header when I've finished it. My debut.

    I suspect many of the privately educated PBers will not agree with your assessment of some of the best schools in the world
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,943
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???
    >
    >
    >
    > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.

    VONC.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 993
    > @Stark_Dawning said:

    > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.

    No confidence vote?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,932
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.

    What MPs can do about it seems likely to be the key political question during October.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The biggest betting mystery for me is Andrea Leadsom's price, which is unfathomably short given how the campaign has progressed. As someone (I think @Theuniondivvie but forgive me if I'm wrong) suggested, it looks as though someone is keeping her betting price artificially short in order to give the semblance of momentum for her.

    Leadsom's Betfair graph shows a £2,000 chunk waiting at 7.2 which would have the opposite effect.

    Leadsom is now clear third favourite at 7/1 but that is because Raab has drifted out past her to 12 or 14/1. Jeremy Hunt has come in a bit to 12 or 14/1 and Boris is tightening at the head of the market to 13/8. Sajid Javid at 28/1 is longer than Rory at 22/1 which seems odd. Sajid will be disappointed at that. Anti-hero of pb Michael Gove is 7/2 second-best.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister


    Rory Stewart is a clear lay too.

    He’s been (unfairly, in my view) painted as a Remainaic which will heavily count against him in the contest.

    However, I expect either him, Gymiah or (if they both drop) Hancock to pick up the ultras.
    I'm trying not to have a view on Rory because his campaign is incomprehensible to this bear of little brain. He invites people who are (a) on Twitter and (b) within half an hour of some inaccessible spot. Is there much evidence anyone takes him up? I don't get it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,795
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.
    >
    > VONC.

    Exactly. Hence, the shortest PM.

    Maybe Boris has a genius plan up his sleeve. But I doubt it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,943
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > I just showed some of my politics students some of the leadership candidates' launch videos - Hunt and Raab went down surprisingly well. Gove produced laughter and a very negative reaction.
    >
    > If you really wanted them to have a laugh you should have shown them Sajid's video. I would call it amateur but that would be completely unfair. On amateurs.
    >
    > It was just inexplicably dull.
    >
    > Why did he do it?

    I can only assume the majority of Tory MPs are suffering sleepless nights, and he is offering them a solution to that.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 993
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Brexit is going to destroy the Conservative Party isn't it?

    Ken Clarke (PBUH) interviewed this morning, stating the Conservatives have been the party of economic liberalism, business and enterprise, and social justice, which is why they've been successful. How much longer?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,255
    edited June 3
    > @stodge said:
    > Morning all :)
    >
    > I don't have a strong view on Gove. I do know he has the same problem all the "I refuse to accept a No Deal" brigade have. The WA is there and it won't be changed - the EU have been clear on this. Javid's nonsense about talking directly to the Irish Government explains why he should be a non-starter and none of the others have so far come up with a way out of the elephant trap into which the Conservatives blundered and fell after 2016.
    >
    > Plenty of words and "ideas" but nothing practical. Those prepared to countenance leaving without an agreed WA, whether by accident or design, only have to explain how and in what way they would mitigate the economic impact of the dislocation if it is as severe as the CBI, Bank of England and others assert. Clearly, we could take the £15 billion in the "war chest" accumulated by Hammond and piss it up the wall in the form of tax cuts (that counts Raab out as a serious runner).
    >
    > At least Gove has conceded the possibility of having to seek as further extension but the EU may not be so favourable - it seems the clamour to throw us out without a WA is growing just as the clamour to leaver without a WA is also growing.
    >
    > The Baxter prediction this morning shows the Conservatives surviving as a rump of 50 or so MPs. The Conservatives have never known what it's like to be a marginalised rump whereas the LDs and Labour do and have. The Party barely coped with being 165 MPs after 1997 - to be 54 would be traumatic in extremis.

    What? Labour has never fallen below 165 seats since 1945, even in 1983 Foot got over 200 seats.

    Of course if the Brexit Party win most seats they will be the main right-wing Party in Britain with the Tories left with a largely Remainer rump little different from the LDs
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,917

    Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???





    That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.
    Parliament can VONC him and put someone else in who will ask for an extension.

    The Tory membership will elect a no-dealer.
    Parliament will say "Wrong answer" and VONC the new PM at the earliest opportunity and attempt to put in position someone who has the confidence of the house and will ask for an extension (Gove? who may have come second).

    But how do MPs get the Queen to appoint their person? I think the Queen follows the advice of the Privy Council in these matters, which traditionally is represented by the Cabinet. But the VONC'd PM may not have had time to form a Cabinet. His or her feet won't have touched the ground. So they'll find it difficult to recommend another headbanger as PM who wouldn't get the confidence of the house in any case.

    The Privy Council consists of 650 members. Could they meet to agree their advice to the Queen and appoint representatives to communicate it to her? I suspect they are overwhelmingly Remainers but I haven't checked the list. We really are in uncharted constitutional waters!

    Diane Abbott is top of the list.

    https://privycouncil.independent.gov.uk/privy-council/privy-council-members/privy-counsellors/
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 993
    > @HYUFD said:

    > Of course if the Brexit Party win most seats they will be the main right-wing Party in Britain with the Tories left with a largely Remainer rump little different from the LDs

    TIme to rebrand as National Liberals?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,056
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > England are going to lose this cricket match...

    Not this again
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Brexit is going to destroy the Conservative Party isn't it?

    Arguably it already has, they just haven't realised it yet...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 36,472
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > England are going to lose this cricket match...
    >
    > Not this again

    This summer is going to be like brexit when it comes to the cricket....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,056
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > England are going to lose this cricket match...
    > >
    > > Not this again
    >
    > This summer is going to be like brexit when it comes to the cricket....

    Pakistan are on for 330-340, which is interesting but not overwhelming. Should be a good watch/listen
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    > @Tabman said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Brexit is going to destroy the Conservative Party isn't it?
    >
    > Ken Clarke (PBUH) interviewed this morning, stating the Conservatives have been the party of economic liberalism, business and enterprise, and social justice, which is why they've been successful. How much longer?

    They've already trashed business and enterprise, their record on social justice is dubious to say the least and economic liberalism is not going to do much for the just about managing they claim to care about so much.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,932
    > @Barnesian said:
    > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.
    >
    > Parliament can VONC him and put someone else in who will ask for an extension.
    >
    > The Tory membership will elect a no-dealer.
    > Parliament will say "Wrong answer" and VONC the new PM at the earliest opportunity and attempt to put in position someone who has the confidence of the house and will ask for an extension (Gove? who may have come second).
    >
    > But how do MPs get the Queen to appoint their person? I think the Queen follows the advice of the Privy Council in these matters, which traditionally is represented by the Cabinet. But the VONC'd PM may not have had time to form a Cabinet. His or her feet won't have touched the ground. So they'll find it difficult to recommend another headbanger as PM who wouldn't get the confidence of the house in any case.
    >
    > The Privy Council consists of 650 members. Could they meet to agree their advice to the Queen and appoint representatives to communicate it to her? I suspect they are overwhelmingly Remainers but I haven't checked the list. We really are in uncharted constitutional waters!

    Perhaps Andrea Leadsom was unwise to resign as Lord President of the Council!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,255
    > @rottenborough said:
    >
    >
    > Brexit is going to destroy the Conservative Party isn't it?

    Actually it could destroy Labour more, at least most Tory voters and seats voted Leave, so a Brexiteer new leader resolves the issue.

    A majority of Labour voters though voted Remain but a majority of Labour seats voted Leave, hence Corbyn is still trying to have it both ways
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,943
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > England are going to lose this cricket match...
    > > >
    > > > Not this again
    > >
    > > This summer is going to be like brexit when it comes to the cricket....
    >
    > Pakistan are on for 330-340, which is interesting but not overwhelming. Should be a good watch/listen

    Ali just pissed on Pakistan's chips...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,255
    > @Tabman said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > Of course if the Brexit Party win most seats they will be the main right-wing Party in Britain with the Tories left with a largely Remainer rump little different from the LDs
    >
    > TIme to rebrand as National Liberals?

    Heseltine was a National Liberal of course before
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,462
    > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > Actually it could destroy Labour more, at least most Tory voters and seats voted Leave, so a Brexiteer new leader resolves the issue.
    >
    ------------

    Where does a Brexiteer new leader take the party? Either they will have to backtrack on their commitments, which reinforces the Brexit Party's message, or they deliver on them, and pay the price for the consequences.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,413
    > @rottenborough said:
    >
    >
    > Brexit is going to destroy the Conservative Party isn't it?

    Interesting choice of tense. But yes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,583
    > @stodge said:
    > Morning all :)
    >
    > I don't have a strong view on Gove. I do know he has the same problem all the "I refuse to accept a No Deal" brigade have. The WA is there and it won't be changed - the EU have been clear on this. Javid's nonsense about talking directly to the Irish Government explains why he should be a non-starter and none of the others have so far come up with a way out of the elephant trap into which the Conservatives blundered and fell after 2016.
    >
    > Plenty of words and "ideas" but nothing practical. Those prepared to countenance leaving without an agreed WA, whether by accident or design, only have to explain how and in what way they would mitigate the economic impact of the dislocation if it is as severe as the CBI, Bank of England and others assert. Clearly, we could take the £15 billion in the "war chest" accumulated by Hammond and piss it up the wall in the form of tax cuts (that counts Raab out as a serious runner).
    >
    > At least Gove has conceded the possibility of having to seek as further extension but the EU may not be so favourable - it seems the clamour to throw us out without a WA is growing just as the clamour to leaver without a WA is also growing.
    >
    > The Baxter prediction this morning shows the Conservatives surviving as a rump of 50 or so MPs. The Conservatives have never known what it's like to be a marginalised rump whereas the LDs and Labour do and have. The Party barely coped with being 165 MPs after 1997 - to be 54 would be traumatic in extremis.

    Did you have to wrestle with your conscience during the Euros as a Lib Dem Leaver or did you vote Farage?
  • isamisam Posts: 28,518

    > @FrancisUrquhart said:

    > England are going to lose this cricket match...



    Not this again

    An Eid special? Muslims have scored all the runs and taken all the wickets
  • alednamalednam Posts: 24
    Have to agree about Gove at education. But he got away with it. And I'm afraid there are candidates to be P.M. who would get away with more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,943
    > @HYUFD said:
    >

    Much as I like Rory, he does have a bit of the Nick Park animation about him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 36,472
    Did trump fist bump queenie? The picture on bbc news site makes it look like it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,462
    Cometh the hour, cometh the gay donkey man.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,584
    edited June 3
    Has this been done? Quite plausible I think..



    'We have also seen the process unfold closer to home, and recently. In Scotland, just four years ago, the Labour Party, which had dominated Scottish politics for generations, lost 40 of its 41 seats, following the largest swings seen in any constituent UK nation since the wave which swept Sinn Fein to power, and then Ireland out of the Union, in 1918.

    The Westminster political conversation moved on too quickly to Brexit for the lessons of that result to be absorbed. Scottish Labour’s annihilation shows no party, no matter how deeply rooted in class, regional, social and national identity it is — has a right to rule, or even to exist. Then, as now, the forces of electoral destruction were unleashed by a closely-fought constitutional referendum.'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 36,472
    Jason roy better score a load of runs with the amount of runs he has cost england so far.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,413

    > @FrancisUrquhart said:

    > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:

    > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:

    > > > England are going to lose this cricket match...

    > >

    > > Not this again

    >

    > This summer is going to be like brexit when it comes to the cricket....



    Pakistan are on for 330-340, which is interesting but not overwhelming. Should be a good watch/listen

    I think that they are looking at more like 350-360. If England have as off a day with the bat as they have with the ball they could be in trouble.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,255
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > >
    > > Actually it could destroy Labour more, at least most Tory voters and seats voted Leave, so a Brexiteer new leader resolves the issue.
    > >
    > ------------
    >
    > Where does a Brexiteer new leader take the party? Either they will have to backtrack on their commitments, which reinforces the Brexit Party's message, or they deliver on them, and pay the price for the consequences.

    They deliver on Brexit, Deal or No Deal, before the next general election as most current Tory and Brexit Party voters want.
  • alednamalednam Posts: 24
    > @anothernick said:
    > > @Tabman said:
    > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > Brexit is going to destroy the Conservative Party isn't it?
    > >
    > > Ken Clarke (PBUH) interviewed this morning, stating the Conservatives have been the party of economic liberalism, business and enterprise, and social justice, which is why they've been successful. How much longer?
    Yes: IF the Conservatives have been such a Party, they haven't been for a goodly while now.
This discussion has been closed.