Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove – the case against

1235

Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,483
    HYUFD said:

    They deliver on Brexit, Deal or No Deal, before the next general election as most current Tory and Brexit Party voters want.

    Do you think they will thank the Tories for the consequences of doing what they want?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,148
    HYUFD said:
    Misleading. She says she can't commit the New President of the Commission who won't be in place until 1st November. No possible negotiation until after 31st October. Extension is inevitable.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,135
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    >
    > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    >
    > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    >
    > > > > England are going to lose this cricket match...
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Not this again
    >
    > >
    >
    > > This summer is going to be like brexit when it comes to the cricket....
    >
    >
    >
    > Pakistan are on for 330-340, which is interesting but not overwhelming. Should be a good watch/listen
    >
    > I think that they are looking at more like 350-360. If England have as off a day with the bat as they have with the ball they could be in trouble.

    Or in other words, nicely poised.

    For pete's sake we can't always have walkovers!!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,955
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > >
    >
    > Much as I like Rory, he does have a bit of the Nick Park animation about him.


    Sometimes not even the wrong trousers.

  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 501
    > @Barnesian said:
    > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.
    >
    > Parliament can VONC him and put someone else in who will ask for an extension.
    >
    > The Tory membership will elect a no-dealer.
    > Parliament will say "Wrong answer" and VONC the new PM at the earliest opportunity and attempt to put in position someone who has the confidence of the house and will ask for an extension (Gove? who may have come second).
    >
    > But how do MPs get the Queen to appoint their person? I think the Queen follows the advice of the Privy Council in these matters, which traditionally is represented by the Cabinet. But the VONC'd PM may not have had time to form a Cabinet. His or her feet won't have touched the ground. So they'll find it difficult to recommend another headbanger as PM who wouldn't get the confidence of the house in any case.
    >
    > The Privy Council consists of 650 members. Could they meet to agree their advice to the Queen and appoint representatives to communicate it to her? I suspect they are overwhelmingly Remainers but I haven't checked the list. We really are in uncharted constitutional waters!
    >
    > Diane Abbott is top of the list.
    >
    > https://privycouncil.independent.gov.uk/privy-council/privy-council-members/privy-counsellors/

    Ok, but if the HoC immediately VONC BoJo, isn't (FTPA notwithstanding) his next move to call a GE? Where he is able to pit himself as the representative of The People against elitist HoC, thereby shooting Farage's fox, and potentially winning big against an opposition vote heavily split between the LDs and Labour?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,551
    > @williamglenn said:
    > They deliver on Brexit, Deal or No Deal, before the next general election as most current Tory and Brexit Party voters want.
    >
    > Do you think they will thank the Tories for the consequences of doing what they want?

    Certainly, I know you are snobbishly dismissive of Brexit Party voters and want the Tories to just retain the 9% of voters who voted Tory in the European Parliament elections with maybe a few LDs added on and become a Heathite party but without the support of most of the 32% who voted Brexit Party the Tories will never win a majority again .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,796

    > @DavidL said:

    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:

    >

    > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:

    >

    > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:

    >

    > > > > England are going to lose this cricket match...

    >

    > > >

    >

    > > > Not this again

    >

    > >

    >

    > > This summer is going to be like brexit when it comes to the cricket....

    >

    >

    >

    > Pakistan are on for 330-340, which is interesting but not overwhelming. Should be a good watch/listen

    >

    > I think that they are looking at more like 350-360. If England have as off a day with the bat as they have with the ball they could be in trouble.



    Or in other words, nicely poised.



    For pete's sake we can't always have walkovers!!

    Completely agree. There has been little else in the CWC so far. Even the Bangladesh/SA match fizzled out to an inevitable result well before the end.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,148
    Chris said:

    > @Barnesian said:

    > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history???


    >




    > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.


    > Parliament can VONC him and put someone else in who will ask for an extension.


    > The Tory membership will elect a no-dealer.

    > Parliament will say "Wrong answer" and VONC the new PM at the earliest opportunity and attempt to put in position someone who has the confidence of the house and will ask for an extension (Gove? who may have come second).


    > But how do MPs get the Queen to appoint their person? I think the Queen follows the advice of the Privy Council in these matters, which traditionally is represented by the Cabinet. But the VONC'd PM may not have had time to form a Cabinet. His or her feet won't have touched the ground. So they'll find it difficult to recommend another headbanger as PM who wouldn't get the confidence of the house in any case.


    > The Privy Council consists of 650 members. Could they meet to agree their advice to the Queen and appoint representatives to communicate it to her? I suspect they are overwhelmingly Remainers but I haven't checked the list. We really are in uncharted constitutional waters!



    Perhaps Andrea Leadsom was unwise to resign as Lord President of the Council!
    Perhaps our future is in the hands of Mel Stride? Who??
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,287


    > Much as I like Rory, he does have a bit of the Nick Park animation about him.

    Sometimes not even the wrong trousers.



    Very fetching.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,603
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > > Mr. kinabalu, I look forward to the compelling attempt :p
    > > >
    > >
    > > Attempt? - That does not sound too optimistic.
    > > :smile:
    > >
    > > Starting now anyway. I have the title.
    > >
    > > "The British Disease: Why private education is wrong in principle and harmful in practice."
    > >
    > > I will submit as a Thread Header when I've finished it. My debut.
    >
    > I suspect many of the privately educated PBers will not agree with your assessment of some of the best schools in the world

    I'm privately educated and suspect I may well agree
  • alednamalednam Posts: 28
    > Rory Stewart has been (unfairly, in my view) painted as a Remainaic which will heavily count against him in the contest.
    >
    I don't think he's a Remainiac, but I can't help wondering whether the Citizens' Assembly he proposes to sort Brexit out might recommend Parliament to revoke A50 or to hold new public vote. If he acknowledges that such might be the upshot of their deliberations, then he certainly keeps it very quiet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,551
    edited June 3
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > > > Mr. kinabalu, I look forward to the compelling attempt :p
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Attempt? - That does not sound too optimistic.
    > > > :smile:
    > > >
    > > > Starting now anyway. I have the title.
    > > >
    > > > "The British Disease: Why private education is wrong in principle and harmful in practice."
    > > >
    > > > I will submit as a Thread Header when I've finished it. My debut.
    > >
    > > I suspect many of the privately educated PBers will not agree with your assessment of some of the best schools in the world
    >
    > I'm privately educated and suspect I may well agree

    And no doubt some state educated will disagree with you too, private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries and many now share facilities with state schools and Oxbridge classes etc
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,148
    Animal_pb said:

    > @Barnesian said:

    > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history
    >




    > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.

    >

    > Parliament can VONC him and put someone else in who will ask for an extension.

    >

    > The Tory membership will elect a no-dealer.

    > Parliament will say "Wrong answer" and VONC the new PM at the earliest opportunity and attempt to put in position someone who has the confidence of the house and will ask for an extension (Gove? who may have come second).

    >

    > But how do MPs get the Queen to appoint their person? I think the Queen follows the advice of the Privy Council in these matters, which traditionally is represented by the Cabinet. But the VONC'd PM may not have had time to form a Cabinet. His or her feet won't have touched the ground. So they'll find it difficult to recommend another headbanger as PM who wouldn't get the confidence of the house in any case.

    >

    > The Privy Council consists of 650 members. Could they meet to agree their advice to the Queen and appoint representatives to communicate it to her? I suspect they are overwhelmingly Remainers but I haven't checked the list. We really are in uncharted constitutional waters!

    >

    > Diane Abbott is top of the list.

    >

    > https://privycouncil.independent.gov.uk/privy-council/privy-council-members/privy-counsellors/



    Ok, but if the HoC immediately VONC BoJo, isn't (FTPA notwithstanding) his next move to call a GE? Where he is able to pit himself as the representative of The People against elitist HoC, thereby shooting Farage's fox, and potentially winning big against an opposition vote heavily split between the LDs and Labour?
    FTPA doesn't allow it. There is a defined 14 day procedure.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 501
    > @Barnesian said:
    > > @Barnesian said:
    >
    > > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Parliament can VONC him and put someone else in who will ask for an extension.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The Tory membership will elect a no-dealer.
    >
    > > Parliament will say "Wrong answer" and VONC the new PM at the earliest opportunity and attempt to put in position someone who has the confidence of the house and will ask for an extension (Gove? who may have come second).
    >
    > >
    >
    > > But how do MPs get the Queen to appoint their person? I think the Queen follows the advice of the Privy Council in these matters, which traditionally is represented by the Cabinet. But the VONC'd PM may not have had time to form a Cabinet. His or her feet won't have touched the ground. So they'll find it difficult to recommend another headbanger as PM who wouldn't get the confidence of the house in any case.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The Privy Council consists of 650 members. Could they meet to agree their advice to the Queen and appoint representatives to communicate it to her? I suspect they are overwhelmingly Remainers but I haven't checked the list. We really are in uncharted constitutional waters!
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Diane Abbott is top of the list.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://privycouncil.independent.gov.uk/privy-council/privy-council-members/privy-counsellors/
    >
    >
    >
    > Ok, but if the HoC immediately VONC BoJo, isn't (FTPA notwithstanding) his next move to call a GE? Where he is able to pit himself as the representative of The People against elitist HoC, thereby shooting Farage's fox, and potentially winning big against an opposition vote heavily split between the LDs and Labour?
    >
    > FTPA doesn't allow it. There is a defined 14 day procedure.

    Ok, what stops BoJo triggering said 14 day procedure?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,336
    > @Barnesian said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Misleading. She says she can't commit the New President of the Commission who won't be in place until 1st November. No possible negotiation until after 31st October. Extension is inevitable.

    Alternatively, the outgoing President has the ability to clear a festering sore from the New President's day one in-tray. He tweaks things a bit, in order to be shot of the UK. Who will hold it against him?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,111
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > > Mr. kinabalu, I look forward to the compelling attempt :p
    > > >
    > >
    > > Attempt? - That does not sound too optimistic.
    > > :smile:
    > >
    > > Starting now anyway. I have the title.
    > >
    > > "The British Disease: Why private education is wrong in principle and harmful in practice."
    > >
    > > I will submit as a Thread Header when I've finished it. My debut.
    >
    > I suspect many of the privately educated PBers will not agree with your assessment of some of the best schools in the world

    Well so long as I can convince you - that's the main thing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 38,526
    This is shit from england.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 3
    Animal_pb said:

    Ok, what stops BoJo triggering said 14 day procedure?

    VONC himself, and allow a caretaker PM to revoke?
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 501
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Ok, what stops BoJo triggering said 14 day procedure?
    >
    > VONC himself, and allow a caretaker PM to revoke?

    But who's the caretaker PM? If BoJo can't command the House, surely it then falls to Corbyn? Do we really think he's going to revoke? Or will he (as he has been pushing for consistently) not also favour calling a GE?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,483
    edited June 3
    > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > Certainly, I know you are snobbishly dismissive of Brexit Party voters and want the Tories to just retain the 9% of voters who voted Tory in the European Parliament elections with maybe a few LDs added on and become a Heathite party but without the support of most of the 32% who voted Brexit Party the Tories will never win a majority again .
    >
    ---------

    You can't win a General Election with 5.2 million votes, and copying the Brexit Party won't make the Brexit Party go away.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 26,016

    > @rcs1000 said:

    > @Charles said:

    > At my daughters school pupils are being given time off to rally against trump

    >

    > ++++++++++++++++

    >

    > Ah hem. I think that you should probably clarify which school that is.

    >

    > Or perhaps clarify that it's not a British state school.



    St Trinians by the sound of it

    It’s the finest American school in the country
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,637
    edited June 3
    Is there any journalist out there who is going to get round to asking Boris and the other 31st Octoberites about how on earth the EU could possibly agree a new deal in the lead-up to the new Commission being formed on 1st November?

    You can say you're going to try to get a new deal. You can say we're leaving on the 31st October (if you have a plan for circumventing parliament). But you can't possibly say both.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 26,016

    > @Charles said:

    > Off topic, I live in a small Hampshire market town and some climate extinction event banners have appeared on the railings of the main park over the weekend, clearly painted by primary school children.

    >

    > You need the permission of the town council to do that (which has just turned Lib Dem) so that fits.

    >

    > I have no idea how long they will be there for but yet another example of the creeping politicisation of everyday life.

    >

    > At my daughters school pupils are being given time off to rally against trump

    >

    > Would they have been given the same time off for Xi’s visit? It looks likely that the next major flashpoint will be the PRC invading* Taiwan.

    >

    > *They would say reunification but that rarely comes under threat of nuclear annahailation and is generally taken to be a two way process.

    >

    > No

    >

    > My daughter is upset that because Trump is staying at Winfield House her favourite playground was closed this week on security grounds



    Im still trying to pinpoint when adults in the UK decided to defer decision making to shildren.



    Were fucked if this continues.

    She’s isn’t going to protest (we went boating instead yesterday and that was mollification enough). But she is at a very “progressive” school
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,353
    What has happened to Raab?

    A week or so ago he was 2nd favourite at between 5 and 6.

    He has now drifted all the way out to 17.5 (5th favourite).

    He's well behind Leadsom (8.6) even though he has 23 endorsements to her 4.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 38,526
    England will be chasing 400 here.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MikeL said:

    What has happened to Raab?

    A week or so ago he was 2nd favourite at between 5 and 6.

    He has now drifted all the way out to 17.5 (5th favourite).

    He's well behind Leadsom (8.6) even though he has 23 endorsements to her 4.

    He started speaking...
  • > @MikeL said:
    > What has happened to Raab?
    >
    > A week or so ago he was 2nd favourite at between 5 and 6.
    >
    > He has now drifted all the way out to 17.5 (5th favourite).
    >
    > He's well behind Leadsom (8.6) even though he has 23 endorsements to her 4.

    Seems to be a bit of a feeling that he has all the endorsements he will get.

    As with others, I just do not get the Leadsom price.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 501
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > Is there any journalist out there who is going to get round to asking Boris and the other 31st Octoberites about how on earth the EU could possibly agree a new deal in the lead-up to the new Commission being formed on 1st November?
    >
    > You can say you're going to try to get a new deal. You can say we're leaving on the 31st October (if you have a plan for circumventing parliament). But you can't possibly say both.
    >

    Just put a line through the backstop part of the WA, sign the rest. Easy. :)
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 330
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @Barnesian said:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Misleading. She says she can't commit the New President of the Commission who won't be in place until 1st November. No possible negotiation until after 31st October. Extension is inevitable.
    >
    > Alternatively, the outgoing President has the ability to clear a festering sore from the New President's day one in-tray. He tweaks things a bit, in order to be shot of the UK. Who will hold it against him?

    Totally misleading. I listened to that interview, and whilst Nick Robinson was hinting strongly that the WA might be renegotiated (and basically stated that 'realpolitik' meant no-one could ever say never) Věra Jourová was polite, diplomatic and firm in resisting him putting words into his mouth.

    But as Guido is very strong pro-Boris, this is pesumably aimed squarely at Tory waverers as one more reason to hold their noses and vote BJ...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,135
    > @MikeL said:
    > What has happened to Raab?
    >
    > A week or so ago he was 2nd favourite at between 5 and 6.
    >
    > He has now drifted all the way out to 17.5 (5th favourite).
    >
    > He's well behind Leadsom (8.6) even though he has 23 endorsements to her 4.

    Momentum. He's gone no-where as other candidates have advanced (and Leadsom's price is inexplicable)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,302
    > @Scott_P said:
    >

    There should have been a picture of a feline on the Trump poster, rather than an ellipsis!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 26,016
    rkrkrk said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > Off-topic:

    >

    > Getting away from politics for a minute, here's a quite wonderful story about how one of the missing Lewis chess pieces had been rediscovered:

    >

    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-48494885



    Lovely story - thanks for sharing. Echoes of Del and Rodney striking it rich.

    Shame it’s being auctioned rather than doing a private deal with the museums
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    HYUFD said:

    > @williamglenn said:

    > They deliver on Brexit, Deal or No Deal, before the next general election as most current Tory and Brexit Party voters want.

    >

    > Do you think they will thank the Tories for the consequences of doing what they want?



    Certainly, I know you are snobbishly dismissive of Brexit Party voters and want the Tories to just retain the 9% of voters who voted Tory in the European Parliament elections with maybe a few LDs added on and become a Heathite party but without the support of most of the 32% who voted Brexit Party the Tories will never win a majority again .

    Do you believe the outcome of a no-deal Brexit will be relatively benign?
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,246
    > @Animal_pb said:
    > > @Barnesian said:
    > > > @Barnesian said:
    > >
    > > > Was this the day Boris sealed his fate as one of the shortest PMs in history
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > > That should be quite easy to achieve though. I know the MPs won't like it, but what can they do about it? They can't force him to ask for another extension.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Parliament can VONC him and put someone else in who will ask for an extension.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > The Tory membership will elect a no-dealer.
    > >
    > > > Parliament will say "Wrong answer" and VONC the new PM at the earliest opportunity and attempt to put in position someone who has the confidence of the house and will ask for an extension (Gove? who may have come second).
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > But how do MPs get the Queen to appoint their person? I think the Queen follows the advice of the Privy Council in these matters, which traditionally is represented by the Cabinet. But the VONC'd PM may not have had time to form a Cabinet. His or her feet won't have touched the ground. So they'll find it difficult to recommend another headbanger as PM who wouldn't get the confidence of the house in any case.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > The Privy Council consists of 650 members. Could they meet to agree their advice to the Queen and appoint representatives to communicate it to her? I suspect they are overwhelmingly Remainers but I haven't checked the list. We really are in uncharted constitutional waters!
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Diane Abbott is top of the list.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://privycouncil.independent.gov.uk/privy-council/privy-council-members/privy-counsellors/
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Ok, but if the HoC immediately VONC BoJo, isn't (FTPA notwithstanding) his next move to call a GE? Where he is able to pit himself as the representative of The People against elitist HoC, thereby shooting Farage's fox, and potentially winning big against an opposition vote heavily split between the LDs and Labour?
    > >
    > > FTPA doesn't allow it. There is a defined 14 day procedure.
    >
    > Ok, what stops BoJo triggering said 14 day procedure?

    Seems a lot of wishful thinking here. Anyone who votes VONC against Boris, would have the whip withdrawn. They would then have to vote for Corbyn to be PM or otherwise there would be an election. Boris as Con leader (in this example) would not allow his MPs to vote for someone else as PM.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,637

    Seems a lot of wishful thinking here. Anyone who votes VONC against Boris, would have the whip withdrawn. They would then have to vote for Corbyn to be PM or otherwise there would be an election. Boris as Con leader (in this example) would not allow his MPs to vote for someone else as PM.

    I don't think it will be done by a VONC. Parliament can basically do whatever it likes, and if it decides to amend the rules and tweak the conventions, with the help of a Speaker who will be cooperative*, it will find a way to direct the government to seek an extension.

    * And he'd be quite right to be cooperative: his job is to ensure that the will of parliament prevails, odious though he is.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    It sounds like nonsense.

    There needs to be a new PM in case something comes up? The old one can handle it: there will still be a PM.

    And there needs to be enough time for a confidence vote even though there won't be a confidence vote but even if there is, so what?

    Where's the fire? Has Sir Humphrey put the rent money on a July handover on Betfair?

    The news is that the 1922 might change the rules today.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,663
    > @GarethoftheVale2 said:

    > Seems a lot of wishful thinking here. Anyone who votes VONC against Boris, would have the whip withdrawn. They would then have to vote for Corbyn to be PM or otherwise there would be an election. Boris as Con leader (in this example) would not allow his MPs to vote for someone else as PM.

    "They would then have to vote for Corbyn" not true.
    An Anti-No-Dealer like Clarke could easily get the support of half the house in order to break the default of a No Deal. Under the condition that a GE would be called immediately afterwards.

    I also can't see the Conservative Party withdrawing the whip from 150 tory MPs in October, when there is an election planned for November.
  • > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Mini surgette
    >
    >

    Couple of points on that chart,

    (1) I might be mistaken but it looks as though most of the Remain MPs have already "come out" in support of one candidate or the other.

    (2) I make it 45 out of the 92 stated ERG members who are either candidates or who have endorsed candidates. If Baker endorsed one of the candidates, how many could he bring with him?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,483
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    >
    > There needs to be a new PM in case something comes up? The old one can handle it: there will still be a PM.
    >
    > And there needs to be enough time for a confidence vote even though there won't be a confidence vote but even if there is, so what?
    >
    --------

    The risk is that the new leader won't have the confidence of the house to become PM, so if that isn't tested with enough time before the Article 50 deadline, we really will be in a mess.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,663
    > @Animal_pb said:
    > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > Is there any journalist out there who is going to get round to asking Boris and the other 31st Octoberites about how on earth the EU could possibly agree a new deal in the lead-up to the new Commission being formed on 1st November?
    > >
    > > You can say you're going to try to get a new deal. You can say we're leaving on the 31st October (if you have a plan for circumventing parliament). But you can't possibly say both.
    > >
    >
    > Just put a line through the backstop part of the WA, sign the rest. Easy. :)

    Did you try to cross out the part of your mortgage where you had to pay x% pa interest on the amount you borrowed? Did the bank sign it?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,011
    Y Doethur: speaking as a fellow teacher, I've already commented that compared with the other candidates, Gove might be just about okay as Tory leader, as long as he is kept well away from Education.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    > @DecrepitJohnL said:

    >

    > There needs to be a new PM in case something comes up? The old one can handle it: there will still be a PM.

    >

    > And there needs to be enough time for a confidence vote even though there won't be a confidence vote but even if there is, so what?

    >

    --------



    The risk is that the new leader won't have the confidence of the house to become PM, so if that isn't tested with enough time before the Article 50 deadline, we really will be in a mess.

    Yes but there is no plan for a confidence vote. It might be different if there were, and if this is a serious consideration, they should arrange one. It looks like a ruse.

    Cui bono? Who does a shortened campaign favour?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,955
    Anyone know if Saj and Ruth are going to the banquet for the clay-brained guts, knotty-pated fool, whoreson obscene greasy tallow-catch?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 38,526
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Anyone know if Saj and Ruth are going to the banquet for the clay-brained guts, knotty-pated fool, whoreson obscene greasy tallow-catch?
    >
    >

    I didnt know trump had endorsed the labour party...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 38,526
    Have some england players got money on pakistan? The way they are playing you might think so.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 501
    > @eristdoof said:
    > > @GarethoftheVale2 said:
    >
    > > Seems a lot of wishful thinking here. Anyone who votes VONC against Boris, would have the whip withdrawn. They would then have to vote for Corbyn to be PM or otherwise there would be an election. Boris as Con leader (in this example) would not allow his MPs to vote for someone else as PM.
    >
    > "They would then have to vote for Corbyn" not true.
    > An Anti-No-Dealer like Clarke could easily get the support of half the house in order to break the default of a No Deal. Under the condition that a GE would be called immediately afterwards.
    >
    > I also can't see the Conservative Party withdrawing the whip from 150 tory MPs in October, when there is an election planned for November.
    >

    Out of interest, how do you get to 150? I can see up to 46 - where to the other 100 come from?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    BBC4 10pm tonight -- Alan Clark diaries with John Hurt as AC.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,982
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Has anything happened beyond tits on Twitter?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,955
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > Anyone know if Saj and Ruth are going to the banquet for the clay-brained guts, knotty-pated fool, whoreson obscene greasy tallow-catch?
    > >
    > >
    >
    > I didnt know trump had endorsed the labour party...


    He seems to have endorsed Boris's leadership campaign, would that count?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    > @HYUFD said:
    >

    HYUFD. Is it necessary to keep quoting from Guido? It is non stop garbage and this site is used to better.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,135
    > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > Mini surgette
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Couple of points on that chart,
    >
    > (1) I might be mistaken but it looks as though most of the Remain MPs have already "come out" in support of one candidate or the other.
    >
    > (2) I make it 45 out of the 92 stated ERG members who are either candidates or who have endorsed candidates. If Baker endorsed one of the candidates, how many could he bring with him?

    They are historically leave/remain, not Deal/No-Dealers. So pretty much a 50/50 split in the party and not the 80/20 I think you're picturing.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,142
    Roger said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    >





    HYUFD. Is it necessary to keep quoting from Guido? It is non stop garbage and this site is used to better.
    Sounds like blind panic from Guido. He knows that his man will win the leadership only for it to precede No Deal and the death of Toryism.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,598
    > @williamglenn said:
    >

    Is Stewart in favour of the UK continuing in the Common Agricultural Policy?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,982
    The graph of MP support is interesting. If Leavers shift from eliminated candidates to Gove, he and Hunt could well be the top two (Hunt having a strong Remain advantage, currently).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,986
    @Scott_P said:


    +++++++++++

    The Markit Manufacturing PMI numbers were also released this morning (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/eafabe8382054b868b618dcf6f0b98d8). They also make somewhat depressing reading:

    "The UK manufacturing sector showed increased signs of
    renewed contraction in May. At 49.4, down sharply from 53.1
    in April"

    "Manufacturers reported increased difficulties in convincing
    clients to commit to new contracts during May. This mainly
    reflected the already high level of inventories following
    recent stockpiling activity in advance of the original Brexit
    date. The total volume of new business placed fell for the
    first time in seven months. The rate of contraction was the
    greatest since July 2016 and one of the fastest seen over the
    past six-and-a-half years.

    New order inflows deteriorated from both domestic and
    overseas sources. New export business fell for the second
    month running and at the quickest pace in over four-and-ahalf years. Manufacturers reported lower demand from Asia
    and Europe. There was also mention of Brexit uncertainty,
    including clients diverting supply chains away from the UK,
    leading to lower demand from within the EU."

    It is worth noting, however, that this is not just a British disease. Indeed, the UK's manufacturing PMI is currently above the Eurozone's (albeit not by much). Global growth, largely thanks to President Trump's tariffs is slowing right now. It may well be that we see a recession in the next 18 to 24 months, which would be an added challenge for the incoming Prime Minister.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,435
    349 needed - a good effort by Pakistan but very attainable by a strong England batting line up.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,967
    HYUFD said:

    &What? Labour has never fallen below 165 seats since 1945, even in 1983 Foot got over 200 seats.

    Of course if the Brexit Party win most seats they will be the main right-wing Party in Britain with the Tories left with a largely Remainer rump little different from the LDs

    With respect, your temporal focus is too narrow. I would certainly agree the point post 1945 but in the inter war period (1918 and 1931) Labour won fewer than 60 seats and there was no guarantee they would be the alternative government.

    Since 1945, it has clearly been the case there have only been two Governments - one led by the Conservatives or one led by Labour. We are a long way from that not being the case (polls notwithstanding). The two parties won over 84% of the vote in 2017 - even at 60% (given regional concentration) they would still hoover up over three quarters of the seats.

    At 40% it gets interesting - the Conservatives are more vulnerable with a more widely distributed vote while Labour can retreat into its urban fortresses (East Ham) where, with majorities up to 40,000 (East Ham again) they are in a better position to survive.

    Hence, Labour rarely goes sub 200 but it's perfectly possible for the Conservatives to go sub 100 on similar vote shares,.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    > @Barnesian said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Misleading. She says she can't commit the New President of the Commission who won't be in place until 1st November. No possible negotiation until after 31st October. Extension is inevitable.

    Correct! It would be nice if the Guido disciples on here (both of them) took the trouble to read his distorted garbage before posting it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,337
    Mr. Dancer, Raab has a significant wodge of mostly Leaver support that would most likely split for Boris I would think?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,796
    Pulpstar said:

    349 needed - a good effort by Pakistan but very attainable by a strong England batting line up.

    Slightly concerning that Ali was probably our most effective bowler. May be risky trying to hit spin on this wicket. I think that England were as poor with the ball and in the field as I have seen them for some time. Plenty to do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,796
    Pulpstar said:

    349 needed - a good effort by Pakistan but very attainable by a strong England batting line up.

    Slightly concerning that Ali was probably our most effective bowler. May be risky trying to hit spin on this wicket. I think that England were as poor with the ball and in the field as I have seen them for some time. Plenty to do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,796
    rcs1000 said:

    @Scott_P said:





    +++++++++++



    The Markit Manufacturing PMI numbers were also released this morning (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/eafabe8382054b868b618dcf6f0b98d8). They also make somewhat depressing reading:



    "The UK manufacturing sector showed increased signs of

    renewed contraction in May. At 49.4, down sharply from 53.1

    in April"



    "Manufacturers reported increased difficulties in convincing

    clients to commit to new contracts during May. This mainly

    reflected the already high level of inventories following

    recent stockpiling activity in advance of the original Brexit

    date. The total volume of new business placed fell for the

    first time in seven months. The rate of contraction was the

    greatest since July 2016 and one of the fastest seen over the

    past six-and-a-half years.



    New order inflows deteriorated from both domestic and

    overseas sources. New export business fell for the second

    month running and at the quickest pace in over four-and-ahalf years. Manufacturers reported lower demand from Asia

    and Europe. There was also mention of Brexit uncertainty,

    including clients diverting supply chains away from the UK,

    leading to lower demand from within the EU."



    It is worth noting, however, that this is not just a British disease. Indeed, the UK's manufacturing PMI is currently above the Eurozone's (albeit not by much). Global growth, largely thanks to President Trump's tariffs is slowing right now. It may well be that we see a recession in the next 18 to 24 months, which would be an added challenge for the incoming Prime Minister.
    I am quite surprised that the continuing uncertainty generated by our not fit for purpose political class has not had more of an adverse effect. We have given industry the worst of all possible worlds with little prospect of it being resolved in October.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,982
    F1: Hamilton's said he wants to keep going for at least 5 years. That means, including this year, he needs to average just 3 wins a year in order to beat Schumacher's record (frankly, I expect him to get very close or exceed it next season).

    I tipped that happening, last year, at 9. :D
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,650
    > @Freggles said:
    > Mr. Dancer, Raab has a significant wodge of mostly Leaver support that would most likely split for Boris I would think?

    I think that's the key question for the contest.
    Boris will tell Leavers what they want to hear, but will they believe him?
    Gove is arguably more committed to the Brexit project.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,598
    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > Rory Stewart is a clear lay too.
    >
    > He’s been (unfairly, in my view) painted as a Remainaic which will heavily count against him in the contest.
    >
    > However, I expect either him, Gymiah or (if they both drop) Hancock to pick up the ultras.

    _______________

    Stewart treats Brexit essentially as get it out of the way and move onto more rewarding things. It's a line that doesn't appeal to either Leavers or Remainers, for different reasons.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,659
    Did little squirt Sadiq really think the Donald wouldn't retaliate after he called the President a "fascist"?

    Hurry up and get Crossrail up and running, Sadiq!
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,246
    > @eristdoof said:
    > > @GarethoftheVale2 said:
    >
    > > Seems a lot of wishful thinking here. Anyone who votes VONC against Boris, would have the whip withdrawn. They would then have to vote for Corbyn to be PM or otherwise there would be an election. Boris as Con leader (in this example) would not allow his MPs to vote for someone else as PM.
    >
    > "They would then have to vote for Corbyn" not true.
    > An Anti-No-Dealer like Clarke could easily get the support of half the house in order to break the default of a No Deal. Under the condition that a GE would be called immediately afterwards.
    >
    > I also can't see the Conservative Party withdrawing the whip from 150 tory MPs in October, when there is an election planned for November.
    >

    I don't believe it would be anywhere near 150 but withdrawing the whip from the ultraremainers might well help the party as they would be replaced with more Brexit-friendly candidates, leading to a more united party.

    The ultraremainers don't have much of a future in the Conservative party anyway as seen from moves against Grieve and Lee.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,982
    Mr. Freggles, possible. But Raab might prefer to be the most Leaveish chap in a Gove Cabinet to responsible for EU policy under Boris, which could well mean taking the bullet for not actually leaving on 31 October.

    Also, of course, there's the potential for tactical voting shenanigans if things are close, as per IDS' chaps keeping out Portillo.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,695
    > @FF43 said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > >
    >
    > Is Stewart in favour of the UK continuing in the Common Agricultural Policy?

    What are we going ACTUALLY leave? Customs Union, now CAP

    Don't misunderstand me; I think that Boris et al are up there as truth tellers with the late unlamented Josef Goebbels and we are far better off staying and playing a full part in the Community. But if we can't, then the situation we seem to be drifting towards...... close association...... will do.
    Until we come to our collective senses.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,447
    > @FF43 said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > Rory Stewart is a clear lay too.
    > >
    > > He’s been (unfairly, in my view) painted as a Remainaic which will heavily count against him in the contest.
    > >
    > > However, I expect either him, Gymiah or (if they both drop) Hancock to pick up the ultras.
    >
    > _______________
    >
    > Stewart treats Brexit essentially as get it out of the way and move onto more rewarding things. It's a line that doesn't appeal to either Leavers or Remainers, for different reasons.

    But equally it's the sane approach - the logjam of issues that aren't been looked at (let alone fixed) due to Brexit is growing all the time.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,955
    Culture wars, part ad infinitum.

    Anti-Trump Protesters Get Into HUGE Row With President's Voters Outside Buckingham Palace - LBC @LBC http://shr.gs/ihyL1aE
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,598
    > @eek said:
    > > @FF43 said:
    > > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > >
    > > > Rory Stewart is a clear lay too.
    > > >
    > > > He’s been (unfairly, in my view) painted as a Remainaic which will heavily count against him in the contest.
    > > >
    > > > However, I expect either him, Gymiah or (if they both drop) Hancock to pick up the ultras.
    > >
    > > _______________
    > >
    > > Stewart treats Brexit essentially as get it out of the way and move onto more rewarding things. It's a line that doesn't appeal to either Leavers or Remainers, for different reasons.
    >
    > But equally it's the sane approach - the logjam of issues that aren't been looked at (let alone fixed) due to Brexit is growing all the time.

    -----------

    Stewart clearly thinks a) Brexit was a mistake and b) we're committed now. It's a respectable position but not an appealing one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,483
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    >
    > Anti-Trump Protesters Get Into HUGE Row With President's Voters Outside Buckingham Palace - LBC @LBC http://shr.gs/ihyL1aE

    That's the same woman who was arguing with David Davies.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,135
    75-1 off 10 is the first target here
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,982
    edited June 3
    To ramble some more, Raab's supporters, assuming he gets eliminated, look particularly important for determining the final two, but how many MPs have kept their powder dry? 100? And how many will just vote differently to their public declaration?

    It's an intriguing thing to try and predict.

    As an aside, I just finished re-reading The Fears of Henry IV, a biography by Ian Mortimer I can heartily recommend. It's about* an inflexible, arrogant, vindictive leader who ends up falling prey to his own hubris by forcing a rebellion by his own highhandedness.

    Edited extra bit: *the first bit, that is, which is almost a dual biography of Henry Bolingbroke and Richard II.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 154
    With Labour's candidate being outed, what chance is there of a massive late swing to LD to make seat competitive? LD @ BF 45-1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,483
    > @MarkHopkins said:
    > The legal argument for why we have probably already have left the EU:
    >
    -----------

    The fact that such an argument is being made only proves that the EU is not the oppressive force claimed by Brexiteers.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,669
    > @MarkHopkins said:
    > The legal argument for why we have probably already have left the EU:
    >
    > https://lawyersforbritain.org/article-50-of-the-treaty-on-european-union-what-it-actually-says
    >
    > https://lawyersforbritain.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Article-50-TEU-Part-I-and-Part-II-23.5.19-by-Stanley-Brodie-QC.pdf

    If all the brexit enthusiasts want to believe this then it sounds like we've got a solution everybody is happy with
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 154
    > @argyllrs said:
    > With Labour's candidate being outed, what chance is there of a massive late swing to LD to make seat competitive? LD @ BF 45-1

    Peterborough by-election BTW
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,135
    > @MarkHopkins said:
    > The legal argument for why we have probably already have left the EU:
    >
    > https://lawyersforbritain.org/article-50-of-the-treaty-on-european-union-what-it-actually-says
    >
    > https://lawyersforbritain.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Article-50-TEU-Part-I-and-Part-II-23.5.19-by-Stanley-Brodie-QC.pdf

    Let's put it this way, if I were Instructing Solicitors, I'd have a few questions.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,598
    > @OldKingCole said:
    > > @FF43 said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > >
    > >
    > > Is Stewart in favour of the UK continuing in the Common Agricultural Policy?
    >
    > What are we going ACTUALLY leave? Customs Union, now CAP
    >
    > Don't misunderstand me; I think that Boris et al are up there as truth tellers with the late unlamented Josef Goebbels and we are far better off staying and playing a full part in the Community. But if we can't, then the situation we seem to be drifting towards...... close association...... will do.
    > Until we come to our collective senses.

    ===========

    If you tell sheep farmers, being an EU rule taker is worse than you losing your livelihoods, they will say, sod you.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 154
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @MarkHopkins said:
    > > The legal argument for why we have probably already have left the EU:
    > >
    > > https://lawyersforbritain.org/article-50-of-the-treaty-on-european-union-what-it-actually-says
    > >
    > > https://lawyersforbritain.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Article-50-TEU-Part-I-and-Part-II-23.5.19-by-Stanley-Brodie-QC.pdf
    >
    > If all the brexit enthusiasts want to believe this then it sounds like we've got a solution everybody is happy with

    Irrelevant of what you think - unless the army is behind you, there's nothing you can do about it.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,085
    To what extent could Heseltine's view of Thatcher, who was also Education Secretary of State, apply to Gove?

    "Asked how he would describe the woman who went on to lead the country for more than 11 years, he said she came "from a certain social background, one step up the ladder of economic success, with it a lot of the characteristics that you associate with people who have just made it, a certain intolerance of those who haven't, a certain suspicion of those who are further up the ladder, a certain bigotry, slightly over-simplistic solutions about the nature of the society in which they live".

    The Conservative grandee, who was a junior minister at the time and went on to challenge Mrs Thatcher for the Tory leadership in 1990, said there was one side to her personality "which conformed to type" and another "which had the intellect to rise way above it".

    "You were wise to engage more seriously with the latter than the former."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,945
    HYUFD said:
    I hope so. Otherwise we are screwed
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,955
    Work as if you live in the early days of an idiocracy, 'cos that's definitely what Darren is doing.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 38,526
    350 is going to be a big ask with the way the ball is moving around.
  • > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > Mini surgette
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > Couple of points on that chart,
    > >
    > > (1) I might be mistaken but it looks as though most of the Remain MPs have already "come out" in support of one candidate or the other.
    > >
    > > (2) I make it 45 out of the 92 stated ERG members who are either candidates or who have endorsed candidates. If Baker endorsed one of the candidates, how many could he bring with him?
    >
    > They are historically leave/remain, not Deal/No-Dealers. So pretty much a 50/50 split in the party and not the 80/20 I think you're picturing.

    Still looks like a higher percentage of the Remain MPs have come out vs the Leave block, no? Or have I completely missed your point?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,286
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:
    Misleading. She says she can't commit the New President of the Commission who won't be in place until 1st November. No possible negotiation until after 31st October. Extension is inevitable.
    No, Boris has said we are off.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Rory seems to be making a fool of himself in Ulster today.

This discussion has been closed.