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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Mr. Brooke, will there be an election, or negotiations to try and form something new with existing numbers?

    No one knows atm, it all depends on the leaderless SPD. Some of their members want to break the coalition and have new elections as they dont want to support a CDU government on the principle the junior partner suffers. But they will get a kicking based on current polls and probably hand the centre left slot nationally to the Greens. Merkel wants to hang on as long as possible but rumblings at the grass roots want her to go and let a successor fight the next GE.

    Odds are they will limp on in office but not in government but its fairly shaky as an administration atm.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590

    It feels like a futile argument as to which party is most broken by Brexit Tory or Labour. Surely the answer is both.

    I firmly believe the old duopoly has been smashed by Brexit. For decades we have seen voting largely framed around which side of the Con/Lab divide people see themselves on. That divide is rapidly being utterly eclipsed by the Remain/Leave divide, and as both Con and Lab manage to wriggle and writhe without having a clear position they are being left behind as irrelevant.

    That word - irrelevant - should be what scares them both. For a long time the LibDems were irrelevant. It didn't matter who they were or what they said or what policies they enacted - irrelevant. Even in coalition the only thing of note from the LibDems is that their MPs voted more loyally for Tory bills than Tory MPs and the LibDem voters and members hated it.

    Now though they have a focus and a purpose - remain. Labour will literally tear itself in half reaching (or not) a clear position on Brexit. The Tories have already scored their own divide and await the crowning of their new leader to rip off the Remain portion.

    While that seems a fair analysis, I think Labour is a bit more resilient electorally (simple inertia, rather than anything deserved).
    It gives them a bit more time to sort themselves out, & as Nick points out, the Tories have the additional burden of attempting to govern.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this
    That's three years out of date.
    That’s why I said ‘a bit’, but the Leave/Remain shares don’t seem to have changed much. Remain only beat No Deal by 5% at the Euros
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited June 2019
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    The explicit Remain vote was unchanged from 2014-2019, while the leave vote increased about 5-6%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 86, not sure I agree. The Lib Dems have more experience and success in FPTP elections than UKIP/BP (adding UKIP because of Farage's experience). It also depends where the votes are cast. UKIP scored a string of second places in 2015 (many in the north, in Labour territory), and held Carswell's seat, but Lib Dem marginals tend to be contested with the Conservatives.

    I do think it's open to dispute.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590

    HYUFD said:

    Fascinating. Had assumed Fox would back a solid leaver. Then again, that would put the onus back onto him to land the promised trade deals. Which after several years in his current job he knows to be impossible
    Fox wants to Leave just with a Deal
    Brexiteers are belatedly noticing that a US trade deal might be a damn sight worse than what we have with the EU. The Telegraph published a couple of articles on this theme and other papers are also getting jumpy about threats to the NHS.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/maths-trade-deal-trump-do-not-add/
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/stop-trying-meddle-affairs-mr-johnson-nhs-not-sale/

    It will be interesting to see what is raised at the hustings as the notion that Britain can be a rulemaker rather than a ruletaker (or would even want to be) fails its first contact with reality.
    Businesses that already deal with the US, are less than desperate for us to ink any major trade deal. The rush to sign one could well do more harm than good.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Sutton was a lib dem seat back 20 odd years ago, so could go again and is more built up. Esher is far more stokebroker belt territory so would be true blue no matter what.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    The Lib Dems pose a major threat to the Tories, certainly, in wealthy London and Stockbroker Belt constituencies. They could also expect to do very well in university seats, and some of the old villa constituencies in provincial cities - but the Conservatives no longer have much left to lose in the latter areas.

    Oddly, the South West is no longer a place where the Lib Dems do pose much of a threat to the Tories. They forfeited their eurosceptic supporters there, from 2010-17, and it's hard to see why they would return to the party of Remain.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    It really does. It’s near impossible for the Tories to win a majority if they lose the LD-Con marginals they won in 2015.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    But much of the Tory > TBP swing was in areas there the Tories wouldn’t have won anyway.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fascinating. Had assumed Fox would back a solid leaver. Then again, that would put the onus back onto him to land the promised trade deals. Which after several years in his current job he knows to be impossible
    Fox wants to Leave just with a Deal
    Brexiteers are belatedly noticing that a US trade deal might be a damn sight worse than what we have with the EU. The Telegraph published a couple of articles on this theme and other papers are also getting jumpy about threats to the NHS.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/maths-trade-deal-trump-do-not-add/
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/stop-trying-meddle-affairs-mr-johnson-nhs-not-sale/

    It will be interesting to see what is raised at the hustings as the notion that Britain can be a rulemaker rather than a ruletaker (or would even want to be) fails its first contact with reality.
    Businesses that already deal with the US, are less than desperate for us to ink any major trade deal. The rush to sign one could well do more harm than good.
    The Tories are desperate for anything to show Brexit will be marvelous but any deal with the US will be stacked in their favour. In the bizarre world of the Brexiters trashing trade with 45% of our market is worth it to do a deal with a country that provides a third of that .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    But much of the Tory > TBP swing was in areas there the Tories wouldn’t have won anyway.
    Most Tory seats voted Brexit Party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    The Brexit Party won Cheshire East
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    It wouldn't.

    Are you saying that a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this


    Yes, on 32% of the vote the Brexit Party would have won over 400 seats in the Commons if the European voteshare were repeated at a general election
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    HYUFD said:
    Does this mean than on top of all the other reasons to dislike Dan Hodges he's also a Leaver?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this


    No it wouldn't , they would be lucky to win 1 seat in Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Is this a Fox Hunt dream ticket?

    Fox backed Portillo in 2001 over IDS and Davis so has never really been a firm rightwinger, more centre right
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Sean_F said:

    The Lib Dems pose a major threat to the Tories, certainly, in wealthy London and Stockbroker Belt constituencies. They could also expect to do very well in university seats, and some of the old villa constituencies in provincial cities - but the Conservatives no longer have much left to lose in the latter areas.

    Oddly, the South West is no longer a place where the Lib Dems do pose much of a threat to the Tories. They forfeited their eurosceptic supporters there, from 2010-17, and it's hard to see why they would return to the party of Remain.

    I would expect them to pick up 2 or 3 seats in the SW at the next election - certainly St Ives where they came very close in 2017. But you are right that the days of the SW being a yellow fiefdom are gone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Kent county council ffsake
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,182
    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this


    No it wouldn't , they would be lucky to win 1 seat in Scotland.
    Oh Dear Malcolm... as one-eyed as ever. I'll make a bet with you that the Scottish Lib Dems make gains at the next GE... what will you price me?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    In the current anti-establishment climate, I think there will still be a lot of tactical anti-Tory voting. I know LibDems in Hastings who actively dislike Corbyn who still plan to vote Labour because they really don't want a Tory MP, even Amber, and similarly I know two Corbynites who plan to vote LibDem (without giving an interview to the media about it...) because they live in Mole Valley. An interesting question is whether anti-Brexit Party tactical voting will start to materialise - hard for the casual voter to tell in advance where they're strong, though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    So is today the day the billion candela light of the CHUKas gets extinguished?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    It wouldn't.

    Are you saying that a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire.
    The surest way to risk losing both is by delivering a hard Brexit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    Pulpstar said:

    Kent county council ffsake

    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    etc etc etc etc etc etc etc
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    It wouldn't.

    Are you saying that a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire.
    The surest way to risk losing both is by delivering a hard Brexit.
    Define hard Brexit please.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    It wouldn't.

    Are you saying that a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire.
    The surest way to risk losing both is by delivering a hard Brexit.
    Without delivering Brexit the Tories would be lucky to win more than 1 seat
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    In the current anti-establishment climate, I think there will still be a lot of tactical anti-Tory voting. I know LibDems in Hastings who actively dislike Corbyn who still plan to vote Labour because they really don't want a Tory MP, even Amber, and similarly I know two Corbynites who plan to vote LibDem (without giving an interview to the media about it...) because they live in Mole Valley. An interesting question is whether anti-Brexit Party tactical voting will start to materialise - hard for the casual voter to tell in advance where they're strong, though.
    The economy is critical. We are overdue a downturn. If people start feeling a pinch in their pocket, endless theological discussions about Brexit may start to feel like a luxury we can no longer afford.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    It wouldn't.

    Are you saying that a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire.
    The surest way to risk losing both is by delivering a hard Brexit.
    Define hard Brexit please.
    Any variant of No Deal.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    It wouldn't.

    Are you saying that a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire.
    The surest way to risk losing both is by delivering a hard Brexit.
    Without delivering Brexit the Tories would be lucky to win more than 1 seat
    Trouble is that if Brexit is anything like as bad as the government fears, the Tories would be lucky to win more than one seat, or more than a hundred anyway.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Dominant swing in England overwhelmingly Con to Lib Dem.

    Dominant swing in Scotland overwhelmingly Lab to SNP.

    Sweet.

    Almost everyone seems to assume that GB will shortly revert to the now century-old Con/Lab duopoly (evidence: the “Most Seats” and “Maj/Min/Coalition” markets) I am starting to think that almost everyone is wrong. There’s gold in them thar hills.

    The chances of a disruption are higher than at any time in my life, but the betting markets are right to be cautious even now. As Sean Fear says, there’s a lot of ruin in a nation, and similarly in political parties.

    The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.
    Good. If the Conservatives are the bulwark of the Union, and the Conservatives are screwed, then...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    It wouldn't.

    Are you saying that a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire.
    The surest way to risk losing both is by delivering a hard Brexit.
    Define hard Brexit please.
    Any variant of No Deal.
    I agree, that does bring great risks.

    Yet that wasn't what Hard Brexit was originally referred to.

    May's Deal would have fitted into the middle of the Hard Brexit definition of 2016.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited June 2019

    Jeremy Corbyn unveils plans for 'progressive' tax raid on homes and gardens of the middle class

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/jeremy-corbyn-unveils-new-tax-raid-owners-large-family-homes/

    “Progressive” is just Labour-speak for tax the middle class, isn’t it. The contradictions and and bullshit are typified by the comment from Jon Trickett (who surely can’t be as stupid as he sounds here):

    “So much of this can be traced back to the broken system of land ownership. Concentration of land in the hands of a few has led to unwanted developments, unaffordable house prices, financial crises and environmental degradation.”

    They also seem to be keen on the idea of removing objectivity and the influence of elected representatives from planning:

    “Another idea is “jury service” for planning, where people would be selected at random to adjudicate on planning decisions.”
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    edited June 2019
    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this


    No it wouldn't , they would be lucky to win 1 seat in Scotland.
    Oh Dear Malcolm... as one-eyed as ever. I'll make a bet with you that the Scottish Lib Dems make gains at the next GE... what will you price me?
    what price do you want and how many are you saying they will get
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    And ironically thanks to Corbyn you'll get no Labour government AND Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Kent county council ffsake

    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    etc etc etc etc etc etc etc
    Why don't they just use broad trackers ?!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
    Consider seats like Esher or Sutton. If politics is polarised along Leave/Remain lines, and the Tories become a hard Brexit party, who would win?
    Are you saying a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire ?
    Nearby Tatton would be in danger too.
    It wouldn't.

    Are you saying that a seat in Surrey is worth more than a seat in Staffordshire.
    The surest way to risk losing both is by delivering a hard Brexit.
    Define hard Brexit please.
    Any variant of No Deal.
    I agree, that does bring great risks.

    Yet that wasn't what Hard Brexit was originally referred to.

    May's Deal would have fitted into the middle of the Hard Brexit definition of 2016.
    I don’t think the negotiations on the future relationship would have landed where May gave the impression they would land, but otherwise, yes, the ground has shifted since 2016.
  • madmacsmadmacs Posts: 75

    Sean_F said:

    The Lib Dems pose a major threat to the Tories, certainly, in wealthy London and Stockbroker Belt constituencies. They could also expect to do very well in university seats, and some of the old villa constituencies in provincial cities - but the Conservatives no longer have much left to lose in the latter areas.

    Oddly, the South West is no longer a place where the Lib Dems do pose much of a threat to the Tories. They forfeited their eurosceptic supporters there, from 2010-17, and it's hard to see why they would return to the party of Remain.

    I would expect them to pick up 2 or 3 seats in the SW at the next election - certainly St Ives where they came very close in 2017. But you are right that the days of the SW being a yellow fiefdom are gone.

    Sean_F said:

    The Lib Dems pose a major threat to the Tories, certainly, in wealthy London and Stockbroker Belt constituencies. They could also expect to do very well in university seats, and some of the old villa constituencies in provincial cities - but the Conservatives no longer have much left to lose in the latter areas.

    Oddly, the South West is no longer a place where the Lib Dems do pose much of a threat to the Tories. They forfeited their eurosceptic supporters there, from 2010-17, and it's hard to see why they would return to the party of Remain.

    I would expect them to pick up 2 or 3 seats in the SW at the next election - certainly St Ives where they came very close in 2017. But you are right that the days of the SW being a yellow fiefdom are gone.
    Surely Cheltenham should be a shoe in. Remain voting, Lib Dem Council and topped the poll in the Euros.


  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Since people are talking about potential Lib Dem gains, can I flag up these markets on WillHill. I'm not sure if they count gains or wins, but even if the former I think 47.5 at 3/1 is value. There's got to be a decent chance they gain that kind of surge from Tory seats and Labour marginals.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The Southwest looks to be a key Brexit-Lib Dem battleground next GE. Yeovil for instance, I think Fysh holds if he defects to BXP.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    And ironically thanks to Corbyn you'll get no Labour government AND Brexit.
    He’s doing his best in that regard, but it’s a bit too early to call that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may do
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    Labour, under its current leadership, threatens your income and your home in the pursuit of a 21st century experiment in socialist ideology.

    The LDs might seem like the safest choice to them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,861
    Old format back! Excellent. Much more classy and prestigious.

    Anyway, must dash, got my "Metropolitan Snowflake Libtard" tee shirt on and it's off to the big demo. Hoping to get a selfie with OJ.

    I wonder if Trump will do a walkabout amongst the people? I think he should. A risk, sure, but if he did a mass 'meet and greet' with ordinary Londoners (such as me) and won us over with his charm, that would be a game-changer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may do
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    Labour, under its current leadership, threatens your income and your home in the pursuit of a 21st century experiment in socialist ideology.

    The LDs might seem like the safest choice to them.
    A hard Brexit is far and away the biggest risk. Anything Labour does pales in comparison.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    In the SW, it wins more seats than aping the LDs would...
    I don't think the Tories can regain those voters who have swung LD in the forseeable. That ship has sailed. Kissing Farages arse is the Tory future now.
    Oh, I think they could. The most vulnerable moment for switchers is just after they've switched. The longer they've switched and the more elections in which they've gone with their new party, the more solidly they'll have switched.

    The Tories won't try to regain them, though, that's the thing. Their membership is preferentially from those who are further away from that and more in sympathy with the Faragists. The MPs know this and are chasing that support (well, the ones with significant chances of winning are doing that; quixotic candidates like Rory Stewart who are talking about governing for the entire country and appealing to everyone have no chance).

    Regaining BXP voters, though, could be chasing the rainbow. Whatever they deliver won't be satisfactory - they'll offend and annoy them because either they'll leave with a deal (treacherously selling out!) or they'll leave with no deal (and the catastrophic damage is solely because they messed up navigating the No Deal waters!).

    Interesting times indeed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756

    Is this a Fox Hunt dream ticket?


    Which is the unspeakable and which is the uneatable?

    Werrity may have some idea.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Kent county council ffsake

    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    Lessons have been learnt
    etc etc etc etc etc etc etc
    Why don't they just use broad trackers ?!
    I've got some cash in that fund. HL didn't advertise it as a really really risky investment (why would they?). I guess the issue is the run on it rather than just the investments so hopefully investors won't have lost everything.

    I feel a complete mug, but I am heartened by the fact that the bloke at Kent County Council is having a worse day than me. :)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    Bernard Connolly argues that the BP and Cons should form an electoral pact.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/why-the-brexit-party-might-be-wise-to-form-a-pact-with-the-tories/
    This is obvious yet it is the solution that dare not speak its name in the Tory hustings.

    There will be no way out of the Brexit conundrum without a general election, and that brings on the blues' fear of a Corbyn apocalypse. But they should not shrink back for that imagined risk. The contortions Labour will have to perform in coming to a clear position in a GE, and the threat from remain supporting LDs means that they will be seriously hampered in setting out a clear policy position. Lab will not get away with avoiding the BREXIT issue a second time.

    The candidates should now be talking about how they will cooperate with the BP in the forthcoming inevitable general election.

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,182
    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this


    No it wouldn't , they would be lucky to win 1 seat in Scotland.
    Oh Dear Malcolm... as one-eyed as ever. I'll make a bet with you that the Scottish Lib Dems make gains at the next GE... what will you price me?
    what price do you want and how many are you saying they will get
    You said not one gain? They have four now, missed one more by two votes, so lets say the base is five. You still say not one gain above five?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Cooke, indeed. Anything short of no deal will see a significant number refuse to return from that wing. Centrists could come back, particularly with the threat of Corbyn on one hand and, as they may see it, Farage on the other.

    Of course the Conservatives need to take account of BP, but pretending that's the only risk they face is a serious mistake. It's interesting to consider which is the greater threat to the Conservatives, long term.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may do
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    Labour, under its current leadership, threatens your income and your home in the pursuit of a 21st century experiment in socialist ideology.

    The LDs might seem like the safest choice to them.
    A hard Brexit is far and away the biggest risk. Anything Labour does pales in comparison.
    Labour is led by a candidate for PM and a shadow chancellor who both want to impose a Marxist experiment on the UK, change the fundamentals of our market economy, move away from capitalism and undermine our security alliances out of ideological disagreement with the USA and NATO.

    That is a far bigger risk to us than even the hardest of Brexits.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    In the SW, it wins more seats than aping the LDs would...
    I don't think the Tories can regain those voters who have swung LD in the forseeable. That ship has sailed. Kissing Farages arse is the Tory future now.
    Oh, I think they could. The most vulnerable moment for switchers is just after they've switched. The longer they've switched and the more elections in which they've gone with their new party, the more solidly they'll have switched.

    The Tories won't try to regain them, though, that's the thing. Their membership is preferentially from those who are further away from that and more in sympathy with the Faragists. The MPs know this and are chasing that support (well, the ones with significant chances of winning are doing that; quixotic candidates like Rory Stewart who are talking about governing for the entire country and appealing to everyone have no chance).

    Regaining BXP voters, though, could be chasing the rainbow. Whatever they deliver won't be satisfactory - they'll offend and annoy them because either they'll leave with a deal (treacherously selling out!) or they'll leave with no deal (and the catastrophic damage is solely because they messed up navigating the No Deal waters!).

    Interesting times indeed.
    And the Tories could never appeal to the minority of BXP supporters who are former Labour voters, many of these older WWC voters would not vote Tory under any circumstances. So the maximum number of BXP voters the Tories could hope to attract is perhaps 2/3 to 3/4 of the 32% that voted BXP last month.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    In the SW, it wins more seats than aping the LDs would...
    I don't think the Tories can regain those voters who have swung LD in the forseeable. That ship has sailed. Kissing Farages arse is the Tory future now.
    Oh, I think they could. The most vulnerable moment for switchers is just after they've switched. The longer they've switched and the more elections in which they've gone with their new party, the more solidly they'll have switched.

    The Tories won't try to regain them, though, that's the thing. Their membership is preferentially from those who are further away from that and more in sympathy with the Faragists. The MPs know this and are chasing that support (well, the ones with significant chances of winning are doing that; quixotic candidates like Rory Stewart who are talking about governing for the entire country and appealing to everyone have no chance).

    Regaining BXP voters, though, could be chasing the rainbow. Whatever they deliver won't be satisfactory - they'll offend and annoy them because either they'll leave with a deal (treacherously selling out!) or they'll leave with no deal (and the catastrophic damage is solely because they messed up navigating the No Deal waters!).

    Interesting times indeed.
    The UKIP vote at 2017 GE showed what the residual vote of TBP will be if we left the EU with a deal.

    Its the leaving that matters not the deal.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    And ironically thanks to Corbyn you'll get no Labour government AND Brexit.
    He’s doing his best in that regard, but it’s a bit too early to call that.
    Labour historians will look back at this period and rue they didn't bin off Corbyn when the MPs VONC'd him. Someone even 5 per cent more credible on the economy and without the anti-semitism/terrorism baggage would have absolutely cleaned up by now.

    And I suspect Tory historians will look back and rue not backing the May deal or some variant. No Deal (even with unicorn-flavoured "side deals") or Revoke both risk killing them off, and the EU's not offering much else in between.

    The memberships of both "main" parties need to get their heads out of their arses and realise elections are about getting a majority of normal people to back/tolerate/acquiesce to their vision.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    In the SW, it wins more seats than aping the LDs would...
    I don't think the Tories can regain those voters who have swung LD in the forseeable. That ship has sailed. Kissing Farages arse is the Tory future now.
    Oh, I think they could. The most vulnerable moment for switchers is just after they've switched. The longer they've switched and the more elections in which they've gone with their new party, the more solidly they'll have switched.

    The Tories won't try to regain them, though, that's the thing. Their membership is preferentially from those who are further away from that and more in sympathy with the Faragists. The MPs know this and are chasing that support (well, the ones with significant chances of winning are doing that; quixotic candidates like Rory Stewart who are talking about governing for the entire country and appealing to everyone have no chance).

    Regaining BXP voters, though, could be chasing the rainbow. Whatever they deliver won't be satisfactory - they'll offend and annoy them because either they'll leave with a deal (treacherously selling out!) or they'll leave with no deal (and the catastrophic damage is solely because they messed up navigating the No Deal waters!).

    Interesting times indeed.
    And the Tories could never appeal to the minority of BXP supporters who are former Labour voters, many of these older WWC voters would not vote Tory under any circumstances. So the maximum number of BXP voters the Tories could hope to attract is perhaps 2/3 to 3/4 of the 32% that voted BXP last month.
    I'm fully expecting the 22,615 Tory votes achieved in 2017 to almost collapse completely here in Bassetlaw.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    UK Construction and manufacturing now into contraction .

    Worrying signs globally aswell and one can only hope the US v China trade war finds a resolution quickly .

    It’s upto the services sector once again to save the day but latest consumer spending showed a big drop .

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Dominant swing in England overwhelmingly Con to Lib Dem.

    Dominant swing in Scotland overwhelmingly Lab to SNP.

    Sweet.

    Almost everyone seems to assume that GB will shortly revert to the now century-old Con/Lab duopoly (evidence: the “Most Seats” and “Maj/Min/Coalition” markets) I am starting to think that almost everyone is wrong. There’s gold in them thar hills.

    The chances of a disruption are higher than at any time in my life, but the betting markets are right to be cautious even now. As Sean Fear says, there’s a lot of ruin in a nation, and similarly in political parties.

    The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.
    Good. If the Conservatives are the bulwark of the Union, and the Conservatives are screwed, then...
    An interesting question would be without the almost certain knowledge that Corbyn will never win an election would the Tories have been as self destructive and useless as they've been? It's difficult to think so. Even in the days of IDS and Hague you felt there was a core there who could bring them round. Now there's nothing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may do
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    Labour, under its current leadership, threatens your income and your home in the pursuit of a 21st century experiment in socialist ideology.

    The LDs might seem like the safest choice to them.
    A hard Brexit is far and away the biggest risk. Anything Labour does pales in comparison.
    Labour is led by a candidate for PM and a shadow chancellor who both want to impose a Marxist experiment on the UK, change the fundamentals of our market economy, move away from capitalism and undermine our security alliances out of ideological disagreement with the USA and NATO.

    That is a far bigger risk to us than even the hardest of Brexits.
    Disagree with your arguments and conclusions.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    geoffw said:


    Bernard Connolly argues that the BP and Cons should form an electoral pact.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/why-the-brexit-party-might-be-wise-to-form-a-pact-with-the-tories/
    This is obvious yet it is the solution that dare not speak its name in the Tory hustings.

    There will be no way out of the Brexit conundrum without a general election, and that brings on the blues' fear of a Corbyn apocalypse. But they should not shrink back for that imagined risk. The contortions Labour will have to perform in coming to a clear position in a GE, and the threat from remain supporting LDs means that they will be seriously hampered in setting out a clear policy position. Lab will not get away with avoiding the BREXIT issue a second time.

    The candidates should now be talking about how they will cooperate with the BP in the forthcoming inevitable general election.

    How could they form a pact with a “party” that have only one policy with no idea of what else they stood for.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Roger, far from certain. Corbyn could well end up as PM after the next election, given how things are going.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    nico67 said:

    UK Construction and manufacturing now into contraction .

    Worrying signs globally aswell and one can only hope the US v China trade war finds a resolution quickly .

    It’s upto the services sector once again to save the day but latest consumer spending showed a big drop .

    On consumer spending the report this morning on 5 live business was that the drop was expected in comparison to last years record with heatwave conditions and a royal wedding. They also suggested there is a move away from consumer spending on goods to more activity leisure and other spending

    The US-China trade war though could cause serious economic disruption around the world
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Jeremy Corbyn unveils plans for 'progressive' tax raid on homes and gardens of the middle class

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/jeremy-corbyn-unveils-new-tax-raid-owners-large-family-homes/

    Anyone got a link to the report? It only seems to have made the news in the telegraph and express for some reason.

    Reform of council tax is obviously well overdue, but am a little concerned from what's reported Labour may be shying away from going for a land value tax.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    nichomar said:

    geoffw said:


    Bernard Connolly argues that the BP and Cons should form an electoral pact.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/why-the-brexit-party-might-be-wise-to-form-a-pact-with-the-tories/
    This is obvious yet it is the solution that dare not speak its name in the Tory hustings.

    There will be no way out of the Brexit conundrum without a general election, and that brings on the blues' fear of a Corbyn apocalypse. But they should not shrink back for that imagined risk. The contortions Labour will have to perform in coming to a clear position in a GE, and the threat from remain supporting LDs means that they will be seriously hampered in setting out a clear policy position. Lab will not get away with avoiding the BREXIT issue a second time.

    The candidates should now be talking about how they will cooperate with the BP in the forthcoming inevitable general election.

    How could they form a pact with a “party” that have only one policy with no idea of what else they stood for.
    There will only be one issue at the next GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may do
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    Labour, under its current leadership, threatens your income and your home in the pursuit of a 21st century experiment in socialist ideology.

    The LDs might seem like the safest choice to them.
    A hard Brexit is far and away the biggest risk. Anything Labour does pales in comparison.
    Labour is led by a candidate for PM and a shadow chancellor who both want to impose a Marxist experiment on the UK, change the fundamentals of our market economy, move away from capitalism and undermine our security alliances out of ideological disagreement with the USA and NATO.

    That is a far bigger risk to us than even the hardest of Brexits.
    Disagree with your arguments and conclusions.
    You are a loyal supporter of your party, and getting a bit defensive.

    My point is that if you are a professional voter who wants to avoid disruptive change then the LDs could easily appear the best option at present.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    rkrkrk said:

    Jeremy Corbyn unveils plans for 'progressive' tax raid on homes and gardens of the middle class

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/jeremy-corbyn-unveils-new-tax-raid-owners-large-family-homes/

    Anyone got a link to the report? It only seems to have made the news in the telegraph and express for some reason.

    Reform of council tax is obviously well overdue, but am a little concerned from what's reported Labour may be shying away from going for a land value tax.
    What about allotments, Jeremy?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may do
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The LDs may end up becoming the de facto conservative option if you’re a middle class professional wanting stability.

    You don’t want to risk the disruption and instability of Brexit and you certainly don’t want Corbyn or any form of socialism.

    So, if you want to keep things as they are, you vote LD.
    I don't know. For a family with two kids within 5 years of university and dependent on the NHS for help with chronic illness and a rail commuter, Labour offers quite a lot of practical help.

    Brexit offers my family nothing.
    Labour, under its current leadership, threatens your income and your home in the pursuit of a 21st century experiment in socialist ideology.

    The LDs might seem like the safest choice to them.
    A hard Brexit is far and away the biggest risk. Anything Labour does pales in comparison.
    Labour is led by a candidate for PM and a shadow chancellor who both want to impose a Marxist experiment on the UK, change the fundamentals of our market economy, move away from capitalism and undermine our security alliances out of ideological disagreement with the USA and NATO.

    That is a far bigger risk to us than even the hardest of Brexits.
    Disagree with your arguments and conclusions.
    +1 - Brexit is a permanent change in our legal relationship with the outside world that could only be fixed if both sides agreed, anything done by Labour could be undone without external agreement.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    I have to say that I am not at all impressed with TM decision to prolong her resignation as leader until the 7th June. I have been loyal to her, and consider her deal as the best on offer, but that does not mean I cannot have a go at this delay which serves no purpose but creates the space for every man/woman and their dog to stand for leader and then PM

    She made the right decision to continue as interim PM awaiting the election of her successor but the last two weeks have been painful to watch as she became irrelevant and yesterdays story

    We could have been into the leadership election already and for that I do criticise her unreservedly
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Fenman said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Jeremy Corbyn unveils plans for 'progressive' tax raid on homes and gardens of the middle class

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/jeremy-corbyn-unveils-new-tax-raid-owners-large-family-homes/

    Anyone got a link to the report? It only seems to have made the news in the telegraph and express for some reason.

    Reform of council tax is obviously well overdue, but am a little concerned from what's reported Labour may be shying away from going for a land value tax.
    What about allotments, Jeremy?
    Normally state owned I think. If not I imagine an exemption would be made!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?


    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19

    Good riddance - he’s killed the UK life science sector.

    This was triggered by Kent Council finally getting their arse in gear. Too late for their pensioners though.
    I thought Woodford (along with Terry Smith) was supposed to be Britain's answer to Warren Buffett. Have I mixed him up with someone else? I thought I'd pencilled him in for my next big win from the bookies (which is now long overdue, btw).
    In the popular media yes.

    He did very well at Invesco based on one inspired investment 20 years ago (buying tobacco at 4x EBITDA)

    But he utterly failed to replicate his success when he set up on his own, was arrogant and had some questionable circular structures. When he started doing intrafund swaps and nominal listings at inflated values everyone became aware he was facing disaster
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. NorthWales, it does seem something of a faff.

    Meanwhile, in joyless puritan news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-48499195

    Apparently we should treat sugar like smoking. I don't actually smoke. And if I stopped consuming sugar I'd die. But other than that, fantastic argument.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?


    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19

    Good riddance - he’s killed the UK life science sector.

    (Snip)
    In what way, may I ask?
    He took 20-30% stakes in a lot of small companies without proper diligence. That stopped anyone else serious supporting them (no one wanted to be his b1tch).

    So it made them dependent on him for capital and dried up other liquidity in the space. Then when he ran out of money....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Speaking of investments, if one came into £300k, would it be worth speaking to an investment manager? How would you find one? No need for speculative returns.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?

    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19

    Good riddance - he’s killed the UK life science sector...
    Any chance of expanding on that ?
    Replied to @JosiasJessop
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    I have to say that I am not at all impressed with TM decision to prolong her resignation as leader until the 7th June. I have been loyal to her, and consider her deal as the best on offer, but that does not mean I cannot have a go at this delay which serves no purpose but creates the space for every man/woman and their dog to stand for leader and then PM

    She made the right decision to continue as interim PM awaiting the election of her successor but the last two weeks have been painful to watch as she became irrelevant and yesterdays story

    We could have been into the leadership election already and for that I do criticise her unreservedly

    I think the Tories will benefit from having a wider pool and more time to choose. Cameron was arguably your best leader of the last 20 years, but needed a proper contest to have a chance. Yes it's probably a bit annoying being the butt of some jokes, but I think she's right to give more time. A few days now makes little difference whereas picking the wrong leader (again) would be a much bigger blow.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    Mr. NorthWales, it does seem something of a faff.

    Meanwhile, in joyless puritan news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-48499195

    Apparently we should treat sugar like smoking. I don't actually smoke. And if I stopped consuming sugar I'd die. But other than that, fantastic argument.

    What that graph tells me is that 5% is bollocks.

    Honestly you get to the point where if you don't trust or educate the populace enough, there will always be another thing. We have to better equip people to make their own, better choices.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    nichomar said:

    geoffw said:


    Bernard Connolly argues that the BP and Cons should form an electoral pact.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/why-the-brexit-party-might-be-wise-to-form-a-pact-with-the-tories/
    This is obvious yet it is the solution that dare not speak its name in the Tory hustings.

    There will be no way out of the Brexit conundrum without a general election, and that brings on the blues' fear of a Corbyn apocalypse. But they should not shrink back for that imagined risk. The contortions Labour will have to perform in coming to a clear position in a GE, and the threat from remain supporting LDs means that they will be seriously hampered in setting out a clear policy position. Lab will not get away with avoiding the BREXIT issue a second time.

    The candidates should now be talking about how they will cooperate with the BP in the forthcoming inevitable general election.

    How could they form a pact with a “party” that have only one policy with no idea of what else they stood for.
    Brexit Party stands aside for Tory candidates pledged to implementing a No Deal Brexit?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    edited June 2019
    Interesting to note that with 13 declared runners for the Tory leadership race, eighth in the betting is a non-declared runner, Penny Mordaunt. She is having her conference call with Tory party members this evening - and after that hopefully she will enter the race. What price then?

    Go on Penny, throw your hat in the ring!

    In for a Penny ....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Fenman said:
    It’s very noticeable that she isn’t featured in the new 2020 One Nation Tories book. It’s as if she’s already checked out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Kent county council ffsake

    Yes. They deserve to be shot.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Mr. NorthWales, it does seem something of a faff.

    Meanwhile, in joyless puritan news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-48499195

    Apparently we should treat sugar like smoking. I don't actually smoke. And if I stopped consuming sugar I'd die. But other than that, fantastic argument.

    Not all sugars obviously.
    You'll still be free to buy unhealthy food, it will just be harder for those companies to advertise.
    Seems a good idea to me. I imagine we'd all get used to it just as we have with cigarettes.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    geoffw said:


    Bernard Connolly argues that the BP and Cons should form an electoral pact.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/why-the-brexit-party-might-be-wise-to-form-a-pact-with-the-tories/
    This is obvious yet it is the solution that dare not speak its name in the Tory hustings.

    There will be no way out of the Brexit conundrum without a general election, and that brings on the blues' fear of a Corbyn apocalypse. But they should not shrink back for that imagined risk. The contortions Labour will have to perform in coming to a clear position in a GE, and the threat from remain supporting LDs means that they will be seriously hampered in setting out a clear policy position. Lab will not get away with avoiding the BREXIT issue a second time.

    The candidates should now be talking about how they will cooperate with the BP in the forthcoming inevitable general election.

    How could they form a pact with a “party” that have only one policy with no idea of what else they stood for.
    Brexit Party stands aside for Tory candidates pledged to implementing a No Deal Brexit?
    Can see how that would work but I was hoping to be rid of Marcus Fysh the current, not very good, MP for Yeovil by TBP(Ltd) splitting the vote.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Rabbit, I suspect that if bland packaging goes through, and doesn't work (it won't), then they'll be calling for a tax.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Kent county council ffsake

    Yes. They deserve to be shot.
    Problem is, they know they'll get bailed out. Same with Woking and their property speculation.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    I have to say that I am not at all impressed with TM decision to prolong her resignation as leader until the 7th June. I have been loyal to her, and consider her deal as the best on offer, but that does not mean I cannot have a go at this delay which serves no purpose but creates the space for every man/woman and their dog to stand for leader and then PM

    She made the right decision to continue as interim PM awaiting the election of her successor but the last two weeks have been painful to watch as she became irrelevant and yesterdays story

    We could have been into the leadership election already and for that I do criticise her unreservedly

    I disagree with that. I think the Tories need as much time as possible to think really hard about who will be the best leader in these extraordinary times.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Speaking of investments, if one came into £300k, would it be worth speaking to an investment manager? How would you find one? No need for speculative returns.

    Pay your mortgage off, stick the rest into a basket of trackers.

    If you're renting, buy for cash and secure a big discount.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. rkrkrk, how gracious of the state to permit me to buy food of which it doesn't approve. One trembles with gratitude.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Is Raab worth a punt now? Big drift
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Quincel said:

    Since people are talking about potential Lib Dem gains, can I flag up these markets on WillHill. I'm not sure if they count gains or wins, but even if the former I think 47.5 at 3/1 is value. There's got to be a decent chance they gain that kind of surge from Tory seats and Labour marginals.


    Correct, the value there is at the extremes. Can't wait for constituency betting :-) We could be looking at an SNP '15 scenario for either or both main parties, depending on where we are with Brexit and how the GE comes about.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited June 2019

    nichomar said:

    geoffw said:


    Bernard Connolly argues that the BP and Cons should form an electoral pact.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/why-the-brexit-party-might-be-wise-to-form-a-pact-with-the-tories/
    This is obvious yet it is the solution that dare not speak its name in the Tory hustings.

    There will be no way out of the Brexit conundrum without a general election, and that brings on the blues' fear of a Corbyn apocalypse. But they should not shrink back for that imagined risk. The contortions Labour will have to perform in coming to a clear position in a GE, and the threat from remain supporting LDs means that they will be seriously hampered in setting out a clear policy position. Lab will not get away with avoiding the BREXIT issue a second time.

    The candidates should now be talking about how they will cooperate with the BP in the forthcoming inevitable general election.

    How could they form a pact with a “party” that have only one policy with no idea of what else they stood for.
    Brexit Party stands aside for Tory candidates pledged to implementing a No Deal Brexit?
    Which implies an election before Brexit, which implies either all of this gets agreed very quickly, or we'll have an extension which will further erode the Tories' Brexit street-cred.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Mr. rkrkrk, how gracious of the state to permit me to buy food of which it doesn't approve. One trembles with gratitude.

    Do you want the ban on smoking advertising overturned? Seems obvious to me that's a good thing which has helped people live longer, healthier lives.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    isam said:

    Is Raab worth a punt now? Big drift

    Not if Penny makes a Splash.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    stjohn said:

    Interesting to note that with 13 declared runners for the Tory leadership race, eighth in the betting is a non-declared runner, Penny Mordaunt. She is having her conference call with Tory party members this evening - and after that hopefully she will enter the race. What price then?

    Go on Penny, throw your hat in the ring!

    In for a Penny ....

    Top of the (Cabinet) tree, as well: https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/mordaunt-leads-the-pack-in-our-latest-cabinet-league-table.html
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777

    stjohn said:

    Interesting to note that with 13 declared runners for the Tory leadership race, eighth in the betting is a non-declared runner, Penny Mordaunt. She is having her conference call with Tory party members this evening - and after that hopefully she will enter the race. What price then?

    Go on Penny, throw your hat in the ring!

    In for a Penny ....

    Top of the (Cabinet) tree, as well: https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/mordaunt-leads-the-pack-in-our-latest-cabinet-league-table.html
    That's very good to see. Do you think she will run?
This discussion has been closed.