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  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    A question for the brains trust.

    Will Theresa May remain as an MP? She does seem the type to stay in parliament for ever. A duty politician rather than a careerist.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Fenster said:

    A question for the brains trust.

    Will Theresa May remain as an MP? She does seem the type to stay in parliament for ever. A duty politician rather than a careerist.

    No, she’ll lose her seat to the Lib Dems in the Remain wave. ;)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Fenster said:

    I'm going to curse Dominic Raab for the rest of my life.

    A reliable source tells me 'What is happening is Raab is underwhelming MPs, he's actively scaring MPs, he comes across as a very cold fish, the true TIT (Theresa in trousers), and that's helping Boris.'

    Early days but it looks like Hunt, Gove and Johnson in this race to me. Raab might gobble up the McVey, Baker, and Leadsom support but he won’t go any further.

    And Hancock and the Saj just haven’t got enough momentum.
    This Tory race is like a Masters leaderboard; only the big hitters will be left as we get to the back nine.
    More like a game of "It's a Knockout" where none of the idiotic contestants want to progress to Jeux Sans Frontières
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    brendan16 said:

    I see Andy Murray is out of retirement - he is playing doubles at Queens in a couple of weeks with Deliciano Lopez.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/48497850

    First Widdecombe, then Murray - who will be the next to 'unretire'?

    Ann Widdecombe and Andy Murray playing mixed doubles at Queens Club !!!!!!!!! ....

    They should have played earlier at the French Open. It would surely be the "Last Tango in Paris" for Andy !!!!!!!!

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:



    ...This is perhaps equally concerning:
    https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/no-sweet-spot-for-spore-in-us-china-tensions
    ...Last year, China consumed about US$155 billion worth of semiconductors, around 40 per cent of global consumption. But only 5 per cent to 6 per cent was produced in China. It is likely that a large percentage of what was made locally was by foreign manufacturers located in China but vulnerable to US restrictions.

    Globally, high-end chip design and manufacture is dominated by just three companies: Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung and Intel. The last is an American company. The other two are from countries highly dependent on the US for their security....


    US/China conflict is slowly ratcheting up, and given the principals involved, mistakes could very easily happen.

    "Globally, high-end chip design and manufacture is dominated by just three companies: Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung and Intel. The last is an American company. The other two are from countries highly dependent on the US for their security...."

    Hmmm. High-end chip manufacture (fabrication) is TSMC, Samsung and Intel; sure. They are the only three volume players at the cutting edge of fabrication now that GlobalFoundaries are abandoning the cutting-edge.

    However, in design they are not, and there are other big players, such as ARM, Apple, and AMD (all the A's).

    In addition, fabrication equipment is heavily reliant on other companies, such as ASML in the Netherlands. China not having access to ASML or other equivalent kit would very much hurt them. Likewise, the tools to design chips are vital, such as the offerings from Cadence.

    Chip design and fabrication is really an international trade. AIUI if the US manage to restrict western countries from trading in these areas with Chinese ones, then the Chinese fabs are well and truly f***ed.
    Yes, the article was talking about high end chip fabs. China are attempting to grow a domestic industry, but it will likely take them a decade.
    Stuff like this might well be bluster, but it worries me:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/Tiananmen-at-30-World-grapples-with-crackdown-s-consequences
    Wang Yang, No. 4 on the mainland leadership hierarchy, recently told Beijing-friendly Taiwanese media leaders that he doubts the U.S. would go to war with China over Taiwan, and would not be able to defend the island if it did. "You could say that timing and momentum are on our side...
    The whole article is worth a read.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    After back Boris we now have JoinJo!

    https://www.joinjo.org.uk/

    Swinson's slogan is 'lets change politics' - but unlike the Brexit party she doesn't add 'for good' so I assume its only temporary?

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Fenster said:

    A question for the brains trust.

    Will Theresa May remain as an MP? She does seem the type to stay in parliament for ever. A duty politician rather than a careerist.

    It's quite possible she won't have a choice. The Lib Dems were eyeing up Maidenhead before Dave came longer and sanitized the Tories. It could certainly go that way again after Redwood's TBP-Tory pact.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Fenster said:

    A question for the brains trust.

    Will Theresa May remain as an MP? She does seem the type to stay in parliament for ever. A duty politician rather than a careerist.

    She has said she will stay on until the end of this Parliament. If I were her, I would then retire and enjoy lots of hill walking and running through fields.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    To give you some counter stats.

    In the late 90s I was fortunate to buy my first flat with a chunky mortgage. I have made a couple of moves but have always lived in my flat and owned no other property in the U.K.

    With some help from my Dad I bought my last house for about £4.5m (I can feel the sympathy already). Virtually all of the equity I put in was paper gains on previous properties.

    Assuming a 1% tax I would be charged almost half my post-tax income in new taxes. That simply isn’t affordable.

    This illustrates how good Corbyn's proposal is.

    Depends on what you are trying to achieve.

    I am a moderately successful professional in the finance sector. Well off, certainly, but not rich beyond your wildest dreams.

    I moved out of the part of London where I was born because I couldn’t afford a house and garden.

    If you want to replace people like me with hedge fund magnates and oligarchs fine. But I doubt it’s Corbyn’s objective
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Shouty cringey Corbyn.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Sounds as if it's over for ChUK. I think everyone agreed that the chances of their lasting and making any impact were always remote. Nevertheless, the romantic in me always finds something strangely beautiful about that which shines spectacularly, for however short a time, before fading into nothingness.

    You mean a bit like Brexit?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Corbyn completely (or deliberately)misunderstands trump protest in London uses it as a pro socialist platform turns more people off.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    Scott_P said:
    You mean they haven't got any real evidence to conduct their show trial? They do have rather a habit of investigating leading Eurosceptic MEPs - cos the Pro EU parties control the committees.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    eristdoof said:

    Pulpstar said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Semenya wins appeal. Good for her, but the definition of female is going to be needed to be tightened up now. Y Chromosone = ineligible.

    I hate to point this out, but IIRC Caster Semenya has a Y chromosome (quite a few, in fact). What she doesn't have (and never has had) is a penis. Was it that that you were thinking of?
    I didn't actually realise she had a Y chromosone ! No, I'm specifically putting it that a Y chromosone should mean ineligibility for female track events.
    Then you know nothing about human genetics. Penty of women albeit a small proportion have a Y Chromosome. There are also men who have XX and XXY chromosomes.

    It is not quite true to say that she has won her appeal. She has secured a suspension of the new rules. That is all at this stage.

    I do think we have to let biology and genetics be the guide on this. And I do think it odd that the rules of international athletics can be set by a Swiss court rather than the IAAF and the CAS. Seems to run counter to how things ought to be.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jo Konta takes the first set against Sloane Stephens 6:1 in her QF of the French Open.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:



    It’s a 3 bedroom semi with a modest garden - it’s location (close to my daughter’s school) is why it has a silly valuation.

    So yes, the price would fall about 15% for every 1% of tax, and I’d have to move somewhere a lot further away (and probably move schools)

    I actually think a % tax rate is a reasonably sensible idea - provided it replaces other taxes - but needs to be phased in over quite a long period of time.

    The curious thing will be how do they handle differences in prices between regions. Round my neck of the woods a decent 4 bedroom house is £200,000 say, down in Buckinghamshire it would be £800,000 but both would currently be council band D and pay the same amount.
    And in super prime London it would be £7m...
    For a house in council tax band level D (so worth 68,001 - £88,000 in 1991)?
    Let’s say £4m then...
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    nichomar said:

    Corbyn completely (or deliberately)misunderstands trump protest in London uses it as a pro socialist platform turns more people off.

    From a lot of the images I have seen, the Labour part of the protest seems to have a lot of Palestinian flags being handed out. And everything that then goes with that focus will follow.

    There really isn't no helping them
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I'm going to curse Dominic Raab for the rest of my life.

    A reliable source tells me 'What is happening is Raab is underwhelming MPs, he's actively scaring MPs, he comes across as a very cold fish, the true TIT (Theresa in trousers), and that's helping Boris.'

    Can you underwhelm and actively scare at the same time?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300

    Would new defectors to the Lib Dems be eligible for the leadership?

    Eligibility not necessarily equating to electability, of course.

    I'd be surprised to see members of any party electing such a newbie, however sympathetic, good or prominent they were. Especially those who'd been in *two* other parties in the past six months.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stodge said:

    Actually I think Corbyn's proposal of reintroducing the old Rates is not a bad one, although the transition to get there would be electorally brave. Also it should be a flat rate, not a percentage increasing with value, which is distorting.

    I do like the pretence that for rented property it would be owners not renters who pay it. I suppose that will fool some people.

    Trying to come up with a wholly fair method of funding local Government which doesn't surrender all control to central Government isn't easy. It falls because the nation isn't economically homogenous - there are, in relative terms and not surprisingly, rich bits and poor bits. Central Government comes in and helps out the poor bits with a bit of redistribution from central funding but in terms of funding local Government the disparity means some Councils get a big slice of grant and others have to be almost self-sufficient.

    I wonder if the answer to seeking a single form of local Government funding is not to try - could there not be different funding models and tax-raising models so you'd have an "urban" model based on denser population, a "suburban" model which brings some notion of property values into the equation and a "rural" model based on land values?

    Confusing? Maybe but it would be a recognition of where and how we were instead of some form of egalitarian one-size-fits-all model which creates huge anomalies and disparities.
    I’d go with uncapped council tax for local services plus central grants for mandated functions

    It’s one of the biggest fiddles that central government decides something must be done and then gets local councils to raise tax to pay for it
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Fenster said:

    A question for the brains trust.

    Will Theresa May remain as an MP? She does seem the type to stay in parliament for ever. A duty politician rather than a careerist.

    I would expect her to step down at the next GE and to be the first PM in the Lords since Thatcher.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    nichomar said:

    Corbyn completely (or deliberately)misunderstands trump protest in London uses it as a pro socialist platform turns more people off.

    I reject everything Corbyn stands for so maybe am prejudiced but he seemed to completely misjudge the event and turned it into a shouty rant.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Would new defectors to the Lib Dems be eligible for the leadership?

    Eligibility not necessarily equating to electability, of course.

    I'd be surprised to see members of any party electing such a newbie, however sympathetic, good or prominent they were. Especially those who'd been in *two* other parties in the past six months.
    Oh, indeed. But they'd be taking up a chunk of the book if they stood :-)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Charles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    To give you some counter stats.

    In the late 90s I was fortunate to buy my first flat with a chunky mortgage. I have made a couple of moves but have always lived in my flat and owned no other property in the U.K.

    With some help from my Dad I bought my last house for about £4.5m (I can feel the sympathy already). Virtually all of the equity I put in was paper gains on previous properties.

    Assuming a 1% tax I would be charged almost half my post-tax income in new taxes. That simply isn’t affordable.

    This illustrates how good Corbyn's proposal is.

    Depends on what you are trying to achieve.

    I am a moderately successful professional in the finance sector. Well off, certainly, but not rich beyond your wildest dreams.

    I moved out of the part of London where I was born because I couldn’t afford a house and garden.

    If you want to replace people like me with hedge fund magnates and oligarchs fine. But I doubt it’s Corbyn’s objective
    I doubt if oligarchs will be rushing to invest in a Corbyn-led Britain. And I would rather that London property was not used as a bank by a lot of foreigners whose sources of money are often pretty dubious.

    Re Labour’s proposal, it will depend on the detail: the rate / what phasing in there is / how valuations are carried out and when etc. It will obviously have an impact on rents.

    I am more worried about the proposal to have citizens juries for planning decisions. This seems daft: people are already consulted on planning applications and there is a lot of law around what can / can’t be taken into account. It risks creating decisions which will be wrong in law and appealable or judicially reviewable which will end up gumming up the works rather than the opposite.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Actually I think Corbyn's proposal of reintroducing the old Rates is not a bad one, although the transition to get there would be electorally brave. Also it should be a flat rate, not a percentage increasing with value, which is distorting.

    I do like the pretence that for rented property it would be owners not renters who pay it. I suppose that will fool some people.

    Trying to come up with a wholly fair method of funding local Government which doesn't surrender all control to central Government isn't easy. It falls because the nation isn't economically homogenous - there are, in relative terms and not surprisingly, rich bits and poor bits. Central Government comes in and helps out the poor bits with a bit of redistribution from central funding but in terms of funding local Government the disparity means some Councils get a big slice of grant and others have to be almost self-sufficient.

    I wonder if the answer to seeking a single form of local Government funding is not to try - could there not be different funding models and tax-raising models so you'd have an "urban" model based on denser population, a "suburban" model which brings some notion of property values into the equation and a "rural" model based on land values?

    Confusing? Maybe but it would be a recognition of where and how we were instead of some form of egalitarian one-size-fits-all model which creates huge anomalies and disparities.
    I’d go with uncapped council tax for local services plus central grants for mandated functions

    It’s one of the biggest fiddles that central government decides something must be done and then gets local councils to raise tax to pay for it
    Good proposal. I agree with that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I'm going to curse Dominic Raab for the rest of my life.

    A reliable source tells me 'What is happening is Raab is underwhelming MPs, he's actively scaring MPs, he comes across as a very cold fish, the true TIT (Theresa in trousers), and that's helping Boris.'

    Early days but it looks like Hunt, Gove and Johnson in this race to me. Raab might gobble up the McVey, Baker, and Leadsom support but he won’t go any further.

    And Hancock and the Saj just haven’t got enough momentum.
    Agree. I think Raab then goes to Gove (he’s the right wing not-Johnson) leaving Gove and Johnson in the final round

    FWIW if Johnson were content to be just the front man and leave Gove to do all the work as DPM that might actually work
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Is Greybull serially inept or is something ungood happening?
    They buy companies on life support and bleed them out (most of their “investment” is debtor-in-possession financing which gets paid out first).

    They live off the management fees and see the equity as a deep out of the money option.

    Nasty bunch
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:



    It’s a 3 bedroom semi with a modest garden - it’s location (close to my daughter’s school) is why it has a silly valuation.

    So yes, the price would fall about 15% for every 1% of tax, and I’d have to move somewhere a lot further away (and probably move schools)

    I actually think a % tax rate is a reasonably sensible idea - provided it replaces other taxes - but needs to be phased in over quite a long period of time.

    The curious thing will be how do they handle differences in prices between regions. Round my neck of the woods a decent 4 bedroom house is £200,000 say, down in Buckinghamshire it would be £800,000 but both would currently be council band D and pay the same amount.
    And in super prime London it would be £7m...
    For a house in council tax band level D (so worth 68,001 - £88,000 in 1991)?
    Let’s say £4m then...
    A typical band D house based on 1991 prices is worth £4 million now? In Camden and Islington perhaps!

    Most band D properties in England are probably worth £400,000 (and many less) outside the inner London bubble.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Boris saying he has husting commitments and cannot meet Trump but they had a 20 minute telephone call. Read into that whatever you want to
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:



    To give you some counter stats.

    In the late 90s I was fortunate to buy my first flat with a chunky mortgage. I have made a couple of moves but have always lived in my flat and owned no other property in the U.K.

    With some help from my Dad I bought my last house for about £4.5m (I can feel the sympathy already). Virtually all of the equity I put in was paper gains on previous properties.

    Assuming a 1% tax I would be charged almost half my post-tax income in new taxes. That simply isn’t affordable.

    This illustrates how good Corbyn's proposal is.

    Exactly. If your £4mn in equity had come from your hard work or even via capital gains on another asset you'd have already been taxed on it. A proper wealth or land tax is long overdue, and there are of course deferral oprions (or equity release provided by the private sector) to make sure you or the proverbial little old lady are not out on your ear.
    In my view the £4m isn’t “real” money. It’s just rolled over gains in a principal residence. In my view I should be taxed when I release gains from the sale of a principal residence.

    The question is why should I be taxed on nominal gains rather than on the original investment?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    NEW THREAD

  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300

    Sounds as if it's over for ChUK. I think everyone agreed that the chances of their lasting and making any impact were always remote. Nevertheless, the romantic in me always finds something strangely beautiful about that which shines spectacularly, for however short a time, before fading into nothingness.

    I suspect it wouldn't have taken much for ChUK to have been the beneficiary of switching Remainers in the EU elections.

    Had they had a more sure-footed start and a stronger message from day one, I could see an alternative universe in which the LibDems stayed on single digits and the new insurgents grabbed the votes. But it wasn't to be. If they didn't know what they stood for or even their party name, how the hell were voters supposed to?

    I hope the likes of Umunna and Allen have the humility and good sense to turn up at the Lib Dems, toe the line and offer to serve in whatever capacity the new leader sees fit. They're credible, media-friendly MPs, who alongside Swinson and Moran (and just about Davey) would look different to the Tory and Lab frontbenches.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Fenster said:

    A question for the brains trust.

    Will Theresa May remain as an MP? She does seem the type to stay in parliament for ever. A duty politician rather than a careerist.

    Very difficult to say. Some former PMs stand down pretty quickly - Major, Thatcher, Eden, Macmillan , Baldwin - but others remain MPs for many years. Heath did not retire til 2001- Callaghan stayed til 1987 - Wilson til 1983 - Churchill till 1964 - and Lloyd George until 1945.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Yes but the layers with the deep enough pockets are the actual corporate bookmakers, and if you go into any betting shop in the country, Leadsom is around 8/1. None of the big firms feels confident enough to push the price out, so either they know something or (more likely) they are worried someone else does.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Yes but the layers with the deep enough pockets are the actual corporate bookmakers, and if you go into any betting shop in the country, Leadsom is around 8/1. None of the big firms feels confident enough to push the price out, so either they know something or (more likely) they are worried someone else does.
    They're not confident because they mostly don't know the first thing about the Tory leadership and are just copying Betfair with a bit of a lean.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    Fenster said:

    A question for the brains trust.

    Will Theresa May remain as an MP? She does seem the type to stay in parliament for ever. A duty politician rather than a careerist.

    I would expect her to step down at the next GE and to be the first PM in the Lords House of Unelected Has-Beens since Thatcher.
    :innocent:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    justin124 said:

    Fenster said:

    A question for the brains trust.

    Will Theresa May remain as an MP? She does seem the type to stay in parliament for ever. A duty politician rather than a careerist.

    Very difficult to say. Some former PMs stand down pretty quickly - Major, Thatcher, Eden, Macmillan , Baldwin -
    Cameron?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    I’ve maxed out as much liability as I can hold on Leadsom.

    I’d like to go further but £1,200 is enough.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181
    Pulpstar said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this


    No it wouldn't , they would be lucky to win 1 seat in Scotland.
    Oh Dear Malcolm... as one-eyed as ever. I'll make a bet with you that the Scottish Lib Dems make gains at the next GE... what will you price me?
    what price do you want and how many are you saying they will get
    You said not one gain? They have four now, missed one more by two votes, so lets say the base is five. You still say not one gain above five?
    I'll certainly give you 10-1 on at least one gain and 2-1 they have at least 8 seats next time.. A tenner for 1 gain and 50 quid the other.

    Either way its a crisp hundred nicker if I'm wrong.

    Mind you I'm not a wealthy man as a result of taking all the bad advice on this site :-)
    You're offering 10-1, Lib Dems 5 or more seats but only 2-1 on 8 or more ??!
    I wouldn't want to get over excited... :smile:

    but Malcolm doesn't even want to play at 10-1, never mind.

    In fact on the numbers of the Euros, I think the Lib Dems should be trading in a range 8-11 Scottish seats at the moment, but that could improve if the Tories weaken a bit and Labour are still on their backs in six months. There is still no majority for independence in Scotland right now, and the mild boost the SNP have had from the Euros is very shallow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    Hunt is at least a grown-up with some experience of government.

    Not positives in this race.
This discussion has been closed.