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  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    stodge said:

    eek said:


    Yep - that's the problem - we need to leave by October 31st and the only option on the table is the one so trashed no one will touch it.

    Whoever wins this has to negotiate an identical document that the ERG will vote for otherwise the party is doomed.

    Boris is quite happy for us to leave without a WA. He will zipwire down The Mall, wrap herself in the Union Jack and blame the "perfidious Europeans" and ride a tidal wave of patriotic euphoria to a GE landslide oblivion.
    Which is where no deal will take the Tory party slightly later than continuing beyond October 31st.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2019
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    He is both right and wrong. Yes they need to leave by October. But no, there is no way Boris can do so.
    Yep - that's the problem - we need to leave by October 31st and the only option on the table is the one so trashed no one will touch it.

    Whoever wins this has to negotiate an identical document that the ERG will vote for otherwise the party is doomed.
    If the EU and the Tories had any sense (I know that is a strange concept these days) they would agree to a complete renegotiation whilst having already agreed that the resulting agreement would be exactly the same. Give whoever is leading he Tory party the fig leaf of a triumphant renegotiation but the EU gets the deal it wants and gets rid of the UK before the next crisis comes along.
    The real problem is that the ERG will still trash any deal 30 seconds after it's been announced without reading it.
    Before it was announced I think. We know some of them regard the fact of reaching agreement with the EU to be a sign it is unacceptable, because if the EU agreed it it must be terrible.

    Although in fairness most of the ERG did vote for the deal in the end. Albeit in a way that made them seem very slow, as it was on the basis that it might be the deal or no brexit, something they had been told a thousand times.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Whenever any Tory candidate says "of course i don't want to leave with no deal, but...", does anyone ever ask them to explain why they don't want to leave with no deal?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    How To Break Manifest Promises, Volume VII

    For those anxious to sue politicians who have told lies (e.g., Boris, Tony, Nick), another candidate for legal action has presented himself today.

    Mark Drakeford -- the superlatively mediocre leader of Welsh Labour -- broke Labour's manifesto pledge to build the M4 relief road around Newport.

    Asked by BBC Wales if he was comfortable with breaking a manifesto pledge, he said: "I'm comfortable that the circumstances that the promise was made in have altered."

    The Labour victor of the Newport West by-election, Ruth Jones MP, strongly supported the M4 relief road. How convenient that Drakeford announced his change of heart after the pesky by-election!

    To describe Drakeford as mediocre does mediocre a disservice.

    I understand the issues regarding the Wentloog levels. Building a motorway on a SSSI is probably not a great idea, however as someone who has to crawl along the M4 between the Coldra and the Brynglas tunnel every weeknight I would gladly exchange all the wading birds and great crested newts in SE Wales to reduce my journey by 40 minutes.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited June 2019
    Interestingly on Betfair the May leaving date markets which are based on the day she stops being "Leader of the Conservative Party" (i.e. Friday) are rapidly moving towards July being the winner.

    I'm not sure what's changed in the past 2 hours for June to move from 2.5 to 6.8
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Sad times for the Tories that losing only 30% or so and ending up on 17% would be a good result for them.
    I'm on Tories sub 10 at 15-2 which I think is more likely than them winning at 25-1.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    What are these "Conservative values" of which Boris speaks? Brexit is surely their antithesis.

    The Tories seem to think that to be Conservative now means being pro-Brexit. It is a tragic misunderstanding of what Conservatism is. Brexit, for all that it is bathed in nostalgia, is at heart a revolutionary act. No true Conservative would go anywhere near it.

    By embracing it they may survive as a party but they are killing Conservatism.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited June 2019
    Scott_P said:
    The man will make literally any manoeuvre to get to power.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    He is both right and wrong. Yes they need to leave by October. But no, there is no way Boris can do so.
    Yep - that's the problem - we need to leave by October 31st and the only option on the table is the one so trashed no one will touch it.

    Whoever wins this has to negotiate an identical document that the ERG will vote for otherwise the party is doomed.
    If the EU and the Tories had any sense (I know that is a strange concept these days) they would agree to a complete renegotiation whilst having already agreed that the resulting agreement would be exactly the same. Give whoever is leading he Tory party the fig leaf of a triumphant renegotiation but the EU gets the deal it wants and gets rid of the UK before the next crisis comes along.
    The real problem is that the ERG will still trash any deal 30 seconds after it's been announced without reading it.
    Before it was announced I think. We know some of them regard the fact of reaching agreement with the EU to be a sign it is unacceptable, because if the EU agreed it it must be terrible.

    Although in fairness most of the ERG did vote for the deal in the end. Albeit in a way that made them seem very slow, as it was on the basis that it might be the deal or no brexit, something they had been told a thousand times.
    JRM’s realisation after three long years of wall-to-wall Brexit that it might be a process rather than an event was a classic.

    Still, can’t complain, having laid him to the hilt is the only thing keeping my Conservative leadership betting afloat.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Suppose the field gets narrowed down to Bozo, Raaaab and the Gover. Would Tory moderates try and game the result to get Raaaaaaaab through ahead of Bozo to give Gove a better chance of winning in the members' ballot?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2019
    So i hear Trump was somewhat measured about Brexiting with no deal today, saying "he didn't know much about it". Has anyone considered trying to gamble and actually get somebody to explain it to him in the outside chance that he might actually come out against?

    *Maybe that's what May did...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393

    How To Break Manifest Promises, Volume VII

    For those anxious to sue politicians who have told lies (e.g., Boris, Tony, Nick), another candidate for legal action has presented himself today.

    Mark Drakeford -- the superlatively mediocre leader of Welsh Labour -- broke Labour's manifesto pledge to build the M4 relief road around Newport.

    Asked by BBC Wales if he was comfortable with breaking a manifesto pledge, he said: "I'm comfortable that the circumstances that the promise was made in have altered."

    The Labour victor of the Newport West by-election, Ruth Jones MP, strongly supported the M4 relief road. How convenient that Drakeford announced his change of heart after the pesky by-election!

    To describe Drakeford as mediocre does mediocre a disservice.

    I understand the issues regarding the Wentloog levels. Building a motorway on a SSSI is probably not a great idea, however as someone who has to crawl along the M4 between the Coldra and the Brynglas tunnel every weeknight I would gladly exchange all the wading birds and great crested newts in SE Wales to reduce my journey by 40 minutes.
    Well I'm pleased not everyone shares that view.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2019
    Scott_P said:
    He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.

    Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.

    Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    How To Break Manifest Promises, Volume VII

    For those anxious to sue politicians who have told lies (e.g., Boris, Tony, Nick), another candidate for legal action has presented himself today.

    Mark Drakeford -- the superlatively mediocre leader of Welsh Labour -- broke Labour's manifesto pledge to build the M4 relief road around Newport.

    Asked by BBC Wales if he was comfortable with breaking a manifesto pledge, he said: "I'm comfortable that the circumstances that the promise was made in have altered."

    The Labour victor of the Newport West by-election, Ruth Jones MP, strongly supported the M4 relief road. How convenient that Drakeford announced his change of heart after the pesky by-election!

    To describe Drakeford as mediocre does mediocre a disservice.

    I understand the issues regarding the Wentloog levels. Building a motorway on a SSSI is probably not a great idea, however as someone who has to crawl along the M4 between the Coldra and the Brynglas tunnel every weeknight I would gladly exchange all the wading birds and great crested newts in SE Wales to reduce my journey by 40 minutes.
    They were going to build on 2% of the Levels. It’s a fig leaf, and a transparent one at that. At some point some AM will whinge about a lack of high quality jobs in Wales, and we can all laugh in despair at these fools.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:
    Balling babes is what follows on from grabbing their pussies. But he may have meant bawling.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Balling babes is what follows on from grabbing their pussies. But he may have meant bawling.
    Because ConHome is full of posters desperately waiting for a return to one nation conservatism?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    NEW THREAD

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The first thing it would be worthwhile any new Tory leader is actually enforcing 3 line whips, and withdrawing it from those who don't follow it. Before anything else they need to get a level of discipline back in the party that means that people can have some trust that the MPs will follow through on what their leader says.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    eek said:

    Interestingly on Betfair the May leaving date markets which are based on the day she stops being "Leader of the Conservative Party" (i.e. Friday) are rapidly moving towards July being the winner.

    I'm not sure what's changed in the past 2 hours for June to move from 2.5 to 6.8

    The 1922 has confirmed she will carry on as interim leader until 22nd July.

    Maybe that has moved the markets but not very clued up on betting
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    eek said:

    Interestingly on Betfair the May leaving date markets which are based on the day she stops being "Leader of the Conservative Party" (i.e. Friday) are rapidly moving towards July being the winner.

    I'm not sure what's changed in the past 2 hours for June to move from 2.5 to 6.8


    The constitution can be read to imply that the election process can be initiated without a resignation. Maybe she intends to stay on until a replacement emerges? She’ll still be PM, after all, so having the post vacant doesn’t really make any sense.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    welshowl said:

    How To Break Manifest Promises, Volume VII

    For those anxious to sue politicians who have told lies (e.g., Boris, Tony, Nick), another candidate for legal action has presented himself today.

    Mark Drakeford -- the superlatively mediocre leader of Welsh Labour -- broke Labour's manifesto pledge to build the M4 relief road around Newport.

    Asked by BBC Wales if he was comfortable with breaking a manifesto pledge, he said: "I'm comfortable that the circumstances that the promise was made in have altered."

    The Labour victor of the Newport West by-election, Ruth Jones MP, strongly supported the M4 relief road. How convenient that Drakeford announced his change of heart after the pesky by-election!

    To describe Drakeford as mediocre does mediocre a disservice.

    I understand the issues regarding the Wentloog levels. Building a motorway on a SSSI is probably not a great idea, however as someone who has to crawl along the M4 between the Coldra and the Brynglas tunnel every weeknight I would gladly exchange all the wading birds and great crested newts in SE Wales to reduce my journey by 40 minutes.
    They were going to build on 2% of the Levels. It’s a fig leaf, and a transparent one at that. At some point some AM will whinge about a lack of high quality jobs in Wales, and we can all laugh in despair at these fools.
    These things make me laugh. when they were planning the Norwich northern distributor road all the local councils and residents cried foul when they wanted to build the road over the wensum valley. Once the rest of the road was built (without the most needed bit over the wensum valley) they all started moaning about the rat running through the villages where the missing bit was supposed to be. The thing is that they don't see the irony in that fact.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    This thread has dropped out of the contest.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.

    Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.

    Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
    The thing about Boris is he is all talk and no vision. I know the Brexit supporting media like him but actually he is pretty hopeless as a politician. He has done nothing of substance as Mayor of London or Foreign Secretary. Boris has poor judgement and a complete lack of political antenna. I would not confuse support in the Brexit supporting media for political vitality. He is a figurehead and a pretty ridiculous one at that, if he becomes PM I will enjoy watching him being destroyed by the very media that promote his candidacy as he fails abysmally in the job as PM.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    eek said:

    Interestingly on Betfair the May leaving date markets which are based on the day she stops being "Leader of the Conservative Party" (i.e. Friday) are rapidly moving towards July being the winner.

    I'm not sure what's changed in the past 2 hours for June to move from 2.5 to 6.8

    It's Brandon Lewis's email to members:

    "After the Prime Minister formally steps down as Leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party, the process to elect a new Leader will begin. The Rt Hon Theresa May MP will remain Acting Leader of the Party until a successor is appointed."

    Whereas Betfair has:

    "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?"

    Brilliantly unhelpful. "formally steps down" = "officially cease" in my book, but the market thinks differently.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 297
    So Conservatives are saying that we must achieve Brexit or the Conservative party will be destroyed; but I haven't heard any of them say that we must achieve Brexit because that is what is best for the economy and integrity of the UK.
    The obvious reason for them not saying that is that there is no evidence that Brexit would be best for the economy and integrity of the UK. so it's all about self interest.
    And that's a really good reason to consign the Conservatives to history. When David Owen's SDP were beaten by the Official Monster Raving Loonies in a by election, that was the end of the SDP. So come on good people of Peterborough, do your civic duty on Thursday. Vote Loony, the only sensible thing to do.
This discussion has been closed.