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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (an

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)

Conservatives announce first round ballot for the leadership race next Thursday, then all wrapped up the following week to decide final two.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,392
    edited June 4
    1.

    Thank God the announcement says "fewer" when it means fewer, not less.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,636
    Second like Hunt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    Scott_P said:
    He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.

    Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.

    Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,710
    Not first - Like Jezza. Again. And again. And again. And again.

    :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    Fifth like the Tories
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    It's going to be an annoying month. A lot of promises that cannot be kept, talking to themselves to feel better rather than facing the choices actually before them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,086
    So this is what taking back control and giving it to a sovereign Parliament looks like.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,170
    So if May is staying on as Tory leader until the election of a replacement, she actually pre-announced the pre-announcement of her departure the week before last.

    On June 7th nothing will have changed.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,963
    Ishmael_Z said:

    1.

    Thank God the announcement says "fewer" when it means fewer, not less.

    Yes, but it's not less than 5%/10% because the Tories have fewer than 321 MPs. Tsk.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    So if May is staying on as Tory leader until the election of a replacement, she actually pre-announced the pre-announcement of her departure the week before last.

    On June 7th nothing will have changed.

    The 1922 appointed TM as acting leader until the 22nd July.

    TM did not appoint herself in that role
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    Ishmael_Z said:

    1.

    Thank God the announcement says "fewer" when it means fewer, not less.

    They forgot to specify that the said Members of Parliament need to be Conservatives. Still, they got there, more or fewer.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,353

    So this is what taking back control and giving it to a sovereign Parliament looks like.

    How is she going to "unprorogue" the European commission to bring about the "managed" bit?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,086
    alex. said:

    So this is what taking back control and giving it to a sovereign Parliament looks like.

    How is she going to "unprorogue" the European commission to bring about the "managed" bit?
    As a mother she can multitask and do the job of the European commission as well.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 293
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.

    Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.

    Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
    Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,798
    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,086
    I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."

    My ego needs constant adoration.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,086

    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?

    I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,353

    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?

    Just as some people feel we have to no deal (however bad it may be) because doing so it the only way to ultimately lance the boil of anti-EU extremism by demonstrating iso maybe a lot of Tory MPs feel he has to become leader because he has to be seen to fail hopelessly before they can move on. With the added bonus that they may be able to subsequently wrestle the power to choose leaders back from the membership.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 49,958

    My ego needs constant adoration.

    When are you announcing your leadership bid?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,798

    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?

    I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.

    I'd assumed that. You are not necessarily as other Tories though.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,392
    dodrade said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.

    Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.

    Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
    Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
    "People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.

    I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,547

    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?

    I’ll be disappointed and surprised if Boris wins.

    I also expect him to be crap as a PM. He might win a GE for the Cons though. But he will be unremarkable- a scruffier Cameron.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,760
    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,086
    Q: Why should you never wear Ukrainian boxer shorts?

    A: Chernobyl fallout.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,151
    Come on, Andrea, drop out and piss off.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722

    I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."

    My ego needs constant adoration.

    It is rubbish though, because a June exit is out from 2-ish earlier today to 9 now on Betfair. It should be May really does end in July. Unless it is June which has just come back in a couple of points. What you should have written is Brandon Lewis is the Chris Grayling of betting markets.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,547
    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    Dear god no - Phil Hammond with a pulse.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694

    I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."

    My ego needs constant adoration.

    Not up to your usual high standard imo. Sorry.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,049

    I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."

    My ego needs constant adoration.

    Not up to your usual high standard imo. Sorry.
    His puns are usually pretty august.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,636

    I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."

    My ego needs constant adoration.

    It is rubbish though, because a June exit is out from 2-ish earlier today to 9 now on Betfair. It should be May really does end in July. Unless it is June which has just come back in a couple of points. What you should have written is Brandon Lewis is the Chris Grayling of betting markets.
    The editing of the Wikipedia pages on Friday will be something to behold.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    Boris is odds-on now.

    Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
    Gove 4/1
    Hunt 8/1

    I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,186
    edited June 4
    It could be, ofcourse, that many MP's know that Johnson will not last more than a few months if he does what he says, but that could be a crucial few months in terms of buying time against the Brexit party ; because the current speed of decline at the hands of the BXP looks extremely dangerous for the Tories, to put it mildly.

    At the same time, if he doesn't do what he says, they know he could last a lot longer ; and many of them also know he often doesn't do what he says.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,591

    So this is what taking back control and giving it to a sovereign Parliament looks like.

    I want us to leave on October 31st, but achieving that via No Deal via proroguing the House would be a constitutional abomination.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,710
    edited June 4
    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    edited June 4
    What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")

    https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,461

    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?

    I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.
    You will enjoy being a Lib Dem. Beards are all the rage with good muslim boys* and I am sure that you will adapt your footwear fashion to sandals :)

    *Eid Mubarak btw!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722

    Come on, Andrea, drop out and piss off.

    If I were CCHQ I'd worry about the optics of all stale, male and pale hustings. The 1922 really has got this all wrong, with the month-long resignation of Theresa May contrasting with the sudden faux urgency and late rule change.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,086
    Foxy said:

    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?

    I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.
    You will enjoy being a Lib Dem. Beards are all the rage with good muslim boys* and I am sure that you will adapt your footwear fashion to sandals :)

    *Eid Mubarak btw!
    Thank you.

    Just been to a party celebrating Eid, all my Mum's friends tried to marry me off, again.

    I really don't like Eid, I'm still sore about paying the Zakat as well.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,285
    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    Boris is odds-on now.

    Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
    Gove 4/1
    Hunt 8/1

    I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
    Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.

    Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,398

    I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."

    My ego needs constant adoration.

    Will it be a Red October?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Lol. "A call for candidates will be made on June 7th". Is that for anyone who hadn't heard there might be a vacancy going?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    So the splitters have split.

    It did cause one of the rare political discussions at my work with the JPF and PFJ referenced.

    Even by current standards they brought incompetence and mendacity to new heights.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 345

    I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."

    My ego needs constant adoration.

    Will it be a Red October?
    Only if there is a lot of Marching
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for Gove
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,353
    edited June 4

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    What about all the BXP infiltrators who might decide to vote in the perceived interests of their party, as opposed for the most Brexity candidate?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    Except there is a fair chance Hunt will be up against Gove.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,285

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    Boris is odds-on now.

    Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
    Gove 4/1
    Hunt 8/1

    I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
    Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.

    Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
    Michael Portillo once said of Boris Johnson that he needs to decide whether he is a serious politician or someone who makes jokes and tries to amuse people. I don't think he can change it is a fundamental part of his personality. I don't think he is cut out to be PM, I suspect he would have difficulty making decisions that the office requires.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,285

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for Gove
    Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")

    https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf

    Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,398

    Foxy said:

    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?

    I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.
    You will enjoy being a Lib Dem. Beards are all the rage with good muslim boys* and I am sure that you will adapt your footwear fashion to sandals :)

    *Eid Mubarak btw!
    Thank you.

    Just been to a party celebrating Eid, all my Mum's friends tried to marry me off, again.

    I really don't like Eid, I'm still sore about paying the Zakat as well.
    A friend in Eid is a friend in deed? :lol:
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,353
    Scott_P said:
    Should be able to knock it out on a few pages of A4 i guess.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,151

    What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")

    https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf

    Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12
    Either the Conservatives win an election in the 30s or lose catastrophically badly in the teens, IMHO.

    I don't see much inbetween.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,285
    alex. said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    What about all the BXP infiltrators who might decide to vote in the perceived interests of their party, as opposed for the most Brexity candidate?
    Its a possibility, mind you I would have thought if the other members of the Tories or TBP become aware of dual membership they will be expelled. The Tories certainly would and I know of Local Conservative parties in the past who have had to take action against infiltrators as it is usually common knowledge if people were active in other political parties.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,151

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    Boris is odds-on now.

    Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
    Gove 4/1
    Hunt 8/1

    I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
    Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.

    Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
    I've made peace with Boris.

    If it started with him then maybe it's poetic that it ends with him, whatever that end is.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,398
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:
    Should be able to knock it out on a few pages of A4 i guess.
    A4? Letter, surely :)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,722
    Scott_P said:
    Of course we are behind the curve.

    The Americans have had their requirements on their web site for months (and take note, anyone who thinks you should keep the other side guessing in negotiations) whereas we have Liam Fox.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    Scott_P said:
    Shameless stuff. I won't ask how dumb he thinks everyone is to believe it, because it works, so he is right.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 179
    So Conservatives are saying that we must achieve Brexit or the Conservative party will be destroyed; but I haven't heard any of them say that we must achieve Brexit because that is what is best for the economy and integrity of the UK.
    The obvious reason for them not saying that is that there is no evidence that Brexit would be best for the economy and integrity of the UK. so it's all about self interest.
    And that's a really good reason to consign the Conservatives to history. When David Owen's SDP were beaten by the Official Monster Raving Loonies in a by election, that was the end of the SDP. So come on good people of Peterborough, do your civic duty on Thursday. Vote Loony, the only sensible thing to do.

    (Sorry if you have already read this; originally accidentally posted on an old thread)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,170
    I do miss the reports of potential leadership candidates having telephone lines installed.

    Showing my age.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,151

    Come on, Andrea, drop out and piss off.

    If I were CCHQ I'd worry about the optics of all stale, male and pale hustings. The 1922 really has got this all wrong, with the month-long resignation of Theresa May contrasting with the sudden faux urgency and late rule change.
    I'm kind of done with identity politics.

    If she's not good enough to make the cut she's not good enough to make the cut.

    I think both Mordaunt and McVey would make more compelling candidates but they're not at the party.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,170

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:
    Should be able to knock it out on a few pages of A4 i guess.
    A4? Letter, surely :)
    Foolscap.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for Gove
    Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?
    My wife is a Northern Scot from a fishing community and Gove has Scottish fishing connections. My family really like his work as Environment Food and Rural affairs Secretary and his performances recently at the dispatch box have been very powerful

    Furthermore, he is not Boris and a brexiteer is needed as PM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    Except there is a fair chance Hunt will be up against Gove.
    Really? Boris seems to be difficult to keep out of the top 2 based on known declarations and where followers of ones like Raab will likely fall.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792

    Scott_P said:
    Of course we are behind the curve.

    The Americans have had their requirements on their web site for months (and take note, anyone who thinks you should keep the other side guessing in negotiations) whereas we have Liam Fox.
    Personally I don't want any of our politicians negotiating trade deals.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 817
    A comment for simplicity's sake: For each candidate there is, realistically, only one question which they need to answer convincingly, unambiguously and without unicorns: What is your plan which is (a) not TM's deal (b) will be agreed by the EU (c) delivers Brexit and (d) convinces us that it will pass through the Commons and the Lords, and how are you to persuade us that you are right?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."

    My ego needs constant adoration.

    Sorry boss, it was crap.

    (Awaits ban hammer)
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,285

    What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")

    https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf

    Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12
    Either the Conservatives win an election in the 30s or lose catastrophically badly in the teens, IMHO.

    I don't see much inbetween.
    A core vote strategy if Brexit is not delivered will probably be employed by the Tories. I suspect the Tories can bank 30% + of the vote as they did in 1997 and 2001 against Blair who was a much harder opponent from the Tory perspective compared to say Corbyn. If Brexit is delivered I still think a core vote strategy will be required mainly focused on an economic offer. I suppose it depends on the type of Brexit and any disruption associated with it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    dodrade said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.

    Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.

    Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
    Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
    Far too sophisticated a reference for me to know if he would indeed do so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547

    What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")

    https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf

    Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12
    There would be so many ridiculously tight contests though....could be twenty short, majority of 40.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    Boris is odds-on now.

    Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
    Gove 4/1
    Hunt 8/1

    I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
    Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.

    Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
    I've made peace with Boris.

    If it started with him then maybe it's poetic that it ends with him, whatever that end is.
    I have too but I wont vote for him but rather look like Boris is well on the way to being PM

    One benefit is he will give Corbyn a run for his money
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Is Trumpton still here?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,547

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for Gove
    Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?
    My wife is a Northern Scot from a fishing community and Gove has Scottish fishing connections. My family really like his work as Environment Food and Rural affairs Secretary and his performances recently at the dispatch box have been very powerful

    Furthermore, he is not Boris and a brexiteer is needed as PM
    Gove is the only one who could be a radical transformative PM.

    The rest are just continuity May or Cameron/Blair. Or mad.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 626

    What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")

    https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf

    Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12
    Either the Conservatives win an election in the 30s or lose catastrophically badly in the teens, IMHO.

    I don't see much inbetween.
    that would be the twenties
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'


    I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.

    Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?

    Most people, MPs definitely included, are cowards. Faced with difficult reality or a pleasant fantasy, or faced with belief it won't be so bad to give in vs certain defeat, they'd rather give in. Just look at Labour MPs who think moaning about Corbyn means anything when they want to make him PM, the same will happen with most Tory MPs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    _Anazina_ said:

    Is Trumpton still here?

    D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,392
    kle4 said:

    dodrade said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.

    Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.

    Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
    Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
    Far too sophisticated a reference for me to know if he would indeed do so.
    H IV part 2 I think. Might be H V though.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,519

    alex. said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    What about all the BXP infiltrators who might decide to vote in the perceived interests of their party, as opposed for the most Brexity candidate?
    Its a possibility, mind you I would have thought if the other members of the Tories or TBP become aware of dual membership they will be expelled. The Tories certainly would and I know of Local Conservative parties in the past who have had to take action against infiltrators as it is usually common knowledge if people were active in other political parties.
    Remember, you have to be a member for at least 3 months before having voting rights. That should exclude a fair number of entryists.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:
    Should be able to knock it out on a few pages of A4 i guess.
    A4? Letter, surely :)
    Back of a fag packet if it is Farage
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,285

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for Gove
    Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?
    My wife is a Northern Scot from a fishing community and Gove has Scottish fishing connections. My family really like his work as Environment Food and Rural affairs Secretary and his performances recently at the dispatch box have been very powerful

    Furthermore, he is not Boris and a brexiteer is needed as PM
    Thanks, I suppose he is quite effective. I always think he is trying to hard to be reasonable though as he is pretty machiavellian! Mind you it worked for the fictitious Francis Urquhart so it might work for Gove.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    algarkirk said:

    A comment for simplicity's sake: For each candidate there is, realistically, only one question which they need to answer convincingly, unambiguously and without unicorns: What is your plan which is (a) not TM's deal (b) will be agreed by the EU (c) delivers Brexit and (d) convinces us that it will pass through the Commons and the Lords, and how are you to persuade us that you are right?

    Without unicorns? How are they to win a members vote without that?!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792

    I do miss the reports of potential leadership candidates having telephone lines installed.

    Showing my age.

    Its a very 1990s reference - post privatisation, pre mobiles.

    In the leadership contests of the 1970s it would have taken six months for the Post Office to install a telephone.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293

    What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")

    https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf

    Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12
    There would be so many ridiculously tight contests though....could be twenty short, majority of 40.....
    One rather dependent on Labour and LDs staying precisely level too. Put the LDs up 3 or 4 and they will win plenty more, mostly from the Tories. Put Labour up 3 or 4 and they keep a lot more. Many from the Tories.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,038

    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?
    Is Farage now a country or something? What the fuck does he think he is doing?

    More than a touch of hubris going on, I feel.

    I hope we don't have to wait long for nemesis.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,519
    edited June 4

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:
    Should be able to knock it out on a few pages of A4 i guess.
    A4? Letter, surely :)
    Back of a fag packet if it is Farage
    Don’t forget the beer mat for the finer details.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,710
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for Gove
    Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?
    My wife is a Northern Scot from a fishing community and Gove has Scottish fishing connections. My family really like his work as Environment Food and Rural affairs Secretary and his performances recently at the dispatch box have been very powerful

    Furthermore, he is not Boris and a brexiteer is needed as PM
    Gove is the only one who could be a radical transformative PM.

    To do that he would need to win an election to get a majority. And sadly he's unelectable...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    Boris is odds-on now.

    Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
    Gove 4/1
    Hunt 8/1

    I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
    Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.

    Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
    What does it matter if he acts more mature before the MPs if his plan is still just ruling out all options (even ones not within his power to rule out) other than believing hard enough? Their positions can be pretty darn detailed and still not be feasible.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,353
    JohnO said:

    alex. said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)

    Waste of money.
    It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).
    What about all the BXP infiltrators who might decide to vote in the perceived interests of their party, as opposed for the most Brexity candidate?
    Its a possibility, mind you I would have thought if the other members of the Tories or TBP become aware of dual membership they will be expelled. The Tories certainly would and I know of Local Conservative parties in the past who have had to take action against infiltrators as it is usually common knowledge if people were active in other political parties.
    Remember, you have to be a member for at least 3 months before having voting rights. That should exclude a fair number of entryists.
    Wasn't the entryism campaign by Leave.EU started 6 months ago? At the time it may have been to vote for a Brextremist. Intentions may have changed in the interim.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?
    Is Farage now a country or something? What the fuck does he think he is doing?

    More than a touch of hubris going on, I feel.

    I hope we don't have to wait long for nemesis.
    He will achieve his destiny to destroy the Conservatives soon enough, and then we can focus on worrying about Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,220
    edited June 4
    Some racy stories in Michael Wolff's second book in his series on Trump including the President telling confidents Nikki Haley had performed a lewd act on him and Trump's boast as to why he does not need Viagra

    https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/books/siege-trump-under-fire-by-michael-wolff-book-review-a4158336.html
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,792
    _Anazina_ said:

    Is Trumpton still here?

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,186
    edited June 4
    HYUFD said:

    Some racy stories in Michael Wolff's second book in his series on Trump including the President telling confidents Nikki Haley had performed a lewd act on him and Trump's boast as to why he does not need Viagra

    https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/books/siege-trump-under-fire-by-michael-wolff-book-review-a4158336.html

    No wonder Melania feels the need to get back at him with all her strange outfits at regular intervals.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715

    Andrew said:

    Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.

    Boris is odds-on now.

    Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
    Gove 4/1
    Hunt 8/1

    I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
    Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.

    Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
    I've made peace with Boris.

    If it started with him then maybe it's poetic that it ends with him, whatever that end is.
    I have too but I wont vote for him but rather look like Boris is well on the way to being PM

    One benefit is he will give Corbyn a run for his money
    When Boris gets elected you were supposed to be leaving.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,285
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?
    Is Farage now a country or something? What the fuck does he think he is doing?

    More than a touch of hubris going on, I feel.

    I hope we don't have to wait long for nemesis.
    He does drink a lot of alcohol, he might be deluded! He must realise the Brexit media are using him to force the Tories into delivering Brexit. But if he is deluded he will think it is the real deal....
This discussion has been closed.