He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
Boris is clearly super smart. He won a scholarship to Eton, got a decent degree at Oxford, was president of the Oxford Union, was a highly successful journalist, possibly the best Spectator editor in the last 100 years, and then became a two time Tory mayor of London (a Labour city).
Disputing this is ridiculous. He is definitely very clever, by any normal standards.
The question is whether he has the right kind of smartness, and can develop the necessary seriousness, to be a decent PM, especially in such trying times. That is a totally different issue. The jury is OUT.
Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris is odds-on now.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places Gove 4/1 Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.
Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
I've made peace with Boris.
If it started with him then maybe it's poetic that it ends with him, whatever that end is.
I have too but I wont vote for him but rather look like Boris is well on the way to being PM
One benefit is he will give Corbyn a run for his money
When Boris gets elected you were supposed to be leaving.
A comment for simplicity's sake: For each candidate there is, realistically, only one question which they need to answer convincingly, unambiguously and without unicorns: What is your plan which is (a) not TM's deal (b) will be agreed by the EU (c) delivers Brexit and (d) convinces us that it will pass through the Commons and the Lords, and how are you to persuade us that you are right?
Without unicorns? How are they to win a members vote without that?!
Just a comment on political discourse rather than any specific remark but I hate the term "unicorn". It is so political class orientated. I have never heard anyone mention Unicorns apart from MPs and people who post on here. I actually think Unicorn is an inferior description to fantasy...
Andrea Leadsom's 'field of wheat moment', was when she hitched a lift to Cornwall on the back of a motorbike, having told her mother she was catching a bike
A comment for simplicity's sake: For each candidate there is, realistically, only one question which they need to answer convincingly, unambiguously and without unicorns: What is your plan which is (a) not TM's deal (b) will be agreed by the EU (c) delivers Brexit and (d) convinces us that it will pass through the Commons and the Lords, and how are you to persuade us that you are right?
Without unicorns? How are they to win a members vote without that?!
Just a comment on political discourse rather than any specific remark but I hate the term "unicorn". It is so political class orientated. I have never heard anyone mention Unicorns apart from MPs and people who post on here. I actually think Unicorn is an inferior description to fantasy...
Perhaps. I find it fun myself, but admittedly while I have heard it used in real life, it is from other political wonks, and most normal people would probably have their eyes glaze over if I used it, as with references to science fiction and Terry Pratchett books.
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
Boris is clearly super smart. He won a scholarship to Eton, got a decent degree at Oxford, was president of the Oxford Union, was a highly successful journalist, possibly the best Spectator editor in the last 100 years, and then became a two time Tory mayor of London (a Labour city).
Disputing this is ridiculous. He is definitely very clever, by any normal standards.
The question is whether he has the right kind of smartness, and can develop the necessary seriousness, to be a decent PM, especially in such trying times. That is a totally different issue. The jury is OUT.
The thing about Boris is he is all talk and no vision. I know the Brexit supporting media like him but actually he is pretty hopeless as a politician. He has done nothing of substance as Mayor of London or Foreign Secretary. Boris has poor judgement and a complete lack of political antenna. I would not confuse support in the Brexit supporting media for political vitality. He is a figurehead and a pretty ridiculous one at that, if he becomes PM I will enjoy watching him being destroyed by the very media that promote his candidacy as he fails abysmally in the job as PM.
The benefit of Boris is that lots of Brexit Party supporters trust him, so will return to the Tories and give him a chance to get Brexit done.
The problem of Boris is that unless he fulfills those expectations (which realistically means either No Deal or a new very favourable deal out of nowhere) then those same voters will leave again - and having had their faith let down they'll be even harder to get back.
Andrea Leadsom's 'field of wheat moment', was when she hitched a lift to Cornwall on the back of a motorbike, having told her mother she was catching a bike
Was the rider of the motorbike a young, bearded Socialist firebrand?
I just don't get it. Are the moderates really bending over backwards for Boris on the strength of accomplishments from 7 years ago now? And as for uniting the country what evidence is there for that? No deal won't unite it. Even a new deal would not unite it, even if he could get one.
Believe me I hope he does do better than I think, but it is dispiriting to see a bunch of so called moderates lap at the feet of a man who spent a year saying everything May did was crap then voted for her deal because it was indeed better than the alternatives, and now will take us over the cliff hoping blind belief will see us through.
What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
That poll is fascinating, gives a Bories led Tories a 7% lead over Labour who are tied with the LDs for second on 22% each. The Brexit Party meanwhile falls back to UKIP 2015 levels on 13%
Despite reports to the contrary against Boris the SNP fall even further than they got in 2017 to just 35% in Scotland with the Tories second on 20%, the LDs third on 16% and Labour only 4th on 15%.
Boris does particularly well in the Midlands and Wales with the Tories having a 12% lead, 32% to 20%, more even than the South where the Tories lead on 32% with the LDs second on 29%.
Boris also cuts the Labour lead to 6% in the North and 8% in London
A Boris led Tories are classless too, they lead the LDs 28% to 27% with ABC1s and they lead Labour 29% to 24% with C2DEs
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
Boris is OUT.
The thing about Boris is he is all talk and no vision. I know the Brexit supporting media like him but actually he is pretty hopeless as a politician. He has done nothing of substance as Mayor of London or Foreign Secretary. Boris has poor judgement and a complete lack of political antenna. I would not confuse support in the Brexit supporting media for political vitality. He is a figurehead and a pretty ridiculous one at that, if he becomes PM I will enjoy watching him being destroyed by the very media that promote his candidacy as he fails abysmally in the job as PM.
That just sounds rather like a rant, to me, sorry. He was a good Mayor of London, better than Khan (e.g. crime fell, the city felt at ease, he did the figurehead stuff rather well), he was a rather poor Foreign Secretary (silly gaffes, etc)
He is a bit Churchillian, in good and bad ways. Churchill was an imperialist buffoon, responsible for Gallipoli, amongst other horrors. Yet that same Churchill caught the right rhetorical mood for Britain in 1940, when more sober, capable and sensible politicians had been found very wanting.
Boris has that air about him. He's a big gamble, but right now we are in a casino and we are £100k down on the night, facing bankruptcy.
What the hell, roll the dice?
I can see the logic. More importantly, I cannot see any obvious alternative candidate who is likely to do better.
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
Boris is clearly super smart. He won a scholarship to Eton, got a decent degree at Oxford, was president of the Oxford Union, was a highly successful journalist, possibly the best Spectator editor in the last 100 years, and then became a two time Tory mayor of London (a Labour city).
Disputing this is ridiculous. He is definitely very clever, by any normal standards.
The question is whether he has the right kind of smartness, and can develop the necessary seriousness, to be a decent PM, especially in such trying times. That is a totally different issue. The jury is OUT.
As long as he doesn't turn out to be a gaylord ponceyboots, that's the main thing.
I just don't get it. Are the moderates really bending over backwards for Boris on the strength of accomplishments from 7 years ago now? And as for uniting the country what evidence is there for that? No deal won't unite it. Even a new deal would not unite it, even if he could get one.
Believe me I hope he does do better than I think, but it is dispiriting to see a bunch of so called moderates lap at the feet of a man who spent a year saying everything May did was crap then voted for her deal because it was indeed better than the alternatives, and now will take us over the cliff hoping blind belief will see us through.
The trouble is that the other candidates don't have accomplishments, so 7 years ago will do.
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
Boris is clearly super smart. He won a scholarship to Eton, got a decent degree at Oxford, was president of the Oxford Union, was a highly successful journalist, possibly the best Spectator editor in the last 100 years, and then became a two time Tory mayor of London (a Labour city).
Disputing this is ridiculous. He is definitely very clever, by any normal standards.
The question is whether he has the right kind of smartness, and can develop the necessary seriousness, to be a decent PM, especially in such trying times. That is a totally different issue. The jury is OUT.
As long as he doesn't turn out to be a gaylord ponceyboots, that's the main thing.
Good lord. On God's green earth, what is a "gaylord ponceyboots"????
I just don't get it. Are the moderates really bending over backwards for Boris on the strength of accomplishments from 7 years ago now? And as for uniting the country what evidence is there for that? No deal won't unite it. Even a new deal would not unite it, even if he could get one.
Believe me I hope he does do better than I think, but it is dispiriting to see a bunch of so called moderates lap at the feet of a man who spent a year saying everything May did was crap then voted for her deal because it was indeed better than the alternatives, and now will take us over the cliff hoping blind belief will see us through.
The trouble is that the other candidates don't have accomplishments, so 7 years ago will do.
Perhaps, although the way they over emphasise that he is a proven winner purely on that basis does not acknowledge how much he is still a gamble, and therefore gambling on others is less risky than they imagine.
The benefit of Boris is that lots of Brexit Party supporters trust him, so will return to the Tories and give him a chance to get Brexit done.
The problem of Boris is that unless he fulfills those expectations (which realistically means either No Deal or a new very favourable deal out of nowhere) then those same voters will leave again - and having had their faith let down they'll be even harder to get back.
I think the myth that Johnson is some sort of political vote machine relies on the 2008 and 2012 elections in London. I don't think people understand that the voting coalition that got him elected as Mayor in those two years has been catastrophically destroyed by his actions with regard to Brexit especially in London. I suppose it depends on the geographical distribution of the voters his personality and record repelled and those who are attracted. It may well be the case the voters he picks up are in safe Labour seats and the ones that will not vote for him are in Conservative marginals...
What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
That poll is fascinating, gives a Bories led Tories a 7% lead over Labour who are tied with the LDs for second on 22% each. The Brexit Party meanwhile falls back to UKIP 2015 levels on 13%
Despite reports to the contrary against Boris the SNP fall even further than they got in 2017 to just 35% in Scotland with the Tories second on 20%, the LDs third on 16% and Labour only 4th on 15%.
Boris does particularly well in the Midlands and Wales with the Tories having a 12% lead, 32% to 20%, more even than the South where the Tories lead on 32% with the LDs second on 29%.
Boris also cuts the Labour lead to 6% in the North and 8% in London
A Boris led Tories are classless too, they lead the LDs 28% to 27% with ABC1s and they lead Labour 29% to 24% with C2DEs
What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
That poll is fascinating, gives a Bories led Tories a 7% lead over Labour who are tied with the LDs for second on 22% each. The Brexit Party meanwhile falls back to UKIP 2015 levels on 13%
Despite reports to the contrary against Boris the SNP fall even further than they got in 2017 to just 35% in Scotland with the Tories second on 20%, the LDs third on 16% and Labour only 4th on 15%.
Boris does particularly well in the Midlands and Wales with the Tories having a 12% lead, 32% to 20%, more even than the South where the Tories lead on 32% with the LDs second on 29%.
Boris also cuts the Labour lead to 6% in the North and 8% in London
A Boris led Tories are classless too, they lead the LDs 28% to 27% with ABC1s and they lead Labour 29% to 24% with C2DEs
I would take any poll published now about a hypothetical Tory leader and PM with a giant pinch of salt. People change their mind once someone has got into the position of leadership.
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
Boris is OUT.
The thing about Boris is he is all talk and no vision. I know the Brexit supporting media like him but actually he is pretty hopeless as a politician. He has done nothing of substance as Mayor of London or Foreign Secretary. Boris has poor judgement and a complete lack of political antenna. I would not confuse support in the Brexit supporting media for political vitality. He is a figurehead and a pretty ridiculous one at that, if he becomes PM I will enjoy watching him being destroyed by the very media that promote his candidacy as he fails abysmally in the job as PM.
That just sounds rather like a rant, to me, sorry. He was a good Mayor of London, better than Khan (e.g. crime fell, the city felt at ease, he did the figurehead stuff rather well), he was a rather poor Foreign Secretary (silly gaffes, etc)
He is a bit Churchillian, in good and bad ways. Churchill was an imperialist buffoon, responsible for Gallipoli, amongst other horrors. Yet that same Churchill caught the right rhetorical mood for Britain in 1940, when more sober, capable and sensible politicians had been found very wanting.
Boris has that air about him. He's a big gamble, but right now we are in a casino and we are £100k down on the night, facing bankruptcy.
What the hell, roll the dice?
I can see the logic. More importantly, I cannot see any obvious alternative candidate who is likely to do better.
He was a Foreign Secretary who got a co-ordinated, wide-ranging international response to the Novichok poisoning by Russia. No small feat that.
This is beginning to smell very whiffy indeed. Are we moving to yet another PM by acclamation cos MPs neither trust their membership, nor are interested in any kind of detailed discussion of policy, for fear of what that might reveal? Tory Unity. It got us where we are today.
Minor point: The LDs will be pleased with that YouGov poll. Pollsters seem to be split on whether they are in the mid-teens of low-20s, whereas TBP is low 20s with most polls atm.
Everything is hella volatile though, so who knows if this is continuing a trend of the start of a new one.
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Isn’t it a bit inappropriate for a supposedly impartial Sky News correspondent to be tweeting that a politician is ‘deluded’. He isn’t writing a comment piece for the Indy or Guardian?
Report the news and keep your personal views private?
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
Boris is clearly super smart. He won a scholarship to Eton, got a decent degree at Oxford, was president of the Oxford Union, was a highly successful journalist, possibly the best Spectator editor in the last 100 years, and then became a two time Tory mayor of London (a Labour city).
Disputing this is ridiculous. He is definitely very clever, by any normal standards.
The question is whether he has the right kind of smartness, and can develop the necessary seriousness, to be a decent PM, especially in such trying times. That is a totally different issue. The jury is OUT.
As long as he doesn't turn out to be a gaylord ponceyboots, that's the main thing.
Good lord. On God's green earth, what is a "gaylord ponceyboots"????
I just don't get it. Are the moderates really bending over backwards for Boris on the strength of accomplishments from 7 years ago now? And as for uniting the country what evidence is there for that? No deal won't unite it. Even a new deal would not unite it, even if he could get one.
Believe me I hope he does do better than I think, but it is dispiriting to see a bunch of so called moderates lap at the feet of a man who spent a year saying everything May did was crap then voted for her deal because it was indeed better than the alternatives, and now will take us over the cliff hoping blind belief will see us through.
The trouble is that the other candidates don't have accomplishments, so 7 years ago will do.
Perhaps, although the way they over emphasise that he is a proven winner purely on that basis does not acknowledge how much he is still a gamble, and therefore gambling on others is less risky than they imagine.
The trouble with much of the polling on this is that very few of the other candidates (other than Boris) are well-known enough to have the sort of recognition that makes the polls meaningful. Cameron was a good example of that; the better known he was (as Leader of the Opposition) the better his ratings got.
And, of course, there will be a new LibDem leader to throw into the mix (which might make a difference in both directions).
I just don't get it. Are the moderates really bending over backwards for Boris on the strength of accomplishments from 7 years ago now? And as for uniting the country what evidence is there for that? No deal won't unite it. Even a new deal would not unite it, even if he could get one.
Believe me I hope he does do better than I think, but it is dispiriting to see a bunch of so called moderates lap at the feet of a man who spent a year saying everything May did was crap then voted for her deal because it was indeed better than the alternatives, and now will take us over the cliff hoping blind belief will see us through.
The trouble is that the other candidates don't have accomplishments, so 7 years ago will do.
Perhaps, although the way they over emphasise that he is a proven winner purely on that basis does not acknowledge how much he is still a gamble, and therefore gambling on others is less risky than they imagine.
The trouble with much of the polling on this is that very few of the other candidates (other than Boris) are well-known enough to have the sort of recognition that makes the polls meaningful. Cameron was a good example of that; the better known he was (as Leader of the Opposition) the better his ratings got.
And, of course, there will be a new LibDem leader to throw into the mix (which might make a difference in both directions).
Jo Swinson is pretty plausible. I think the LDs might prosper under her.
I would take any poll published now about a hypothetical Tory leader and PM with a giant pinch of salt. People change their mind once someone has got into the position of leadership.
Not that much, Cameron led in hypothetical polls in 2005 for example, Ed Miliband did not in 2010. Major led in such polls in 1990 as did Blair in 1994, Howard did not pre 2005 etc
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).
Boris is OUT.
The thing about Boris is he is all talk and no vision. I know the Brexit supporting media like him but actually he is pretty hopeless as a politician. He has done nothing ofSNIPdestroyed by the very media that promote his candidacy as he fails abysmally in the job as PM.
That just sounds rather like a rant, to me, sorry. He was a good Mayor of London, better than Khan (e.g. crime fell, the city felt at ease, he did the figurehead stuff rather well), he was a rather poor Foreign Secretary (silly gaffes, etc)
He is a bit Churchillian, in good and bad ways. Churchill was an imperialist buffoon, responsible for Gallipoli, amongst other horrors. Yet that same Churchill caught the right rhetorical mood for Britain in 1940, when more sober, capable and sensible politicians had been found very wanting.
Boris has that air about him. He's a big gamble, but right now we are in a casino and we are £100k down on the night, facing bankruptcy.
What the hell, roll the dice?
I can see the logic. More importantly, I cannot see any obvious alternative candidate who is likely to do better.
He was a Foreign Secretary who got a co-ordinated, wide-ranging international response to the Novichok poisoning by Russia. No small feat that.
You will recall the usual suspects saying we wouldn't get any international response because of Brexit.
What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
That poll is fascinating, gives a Bories led Tories a 7% lead over Labour who are tied with the LDs for second on 22% each. The Brexit Party meanwhile falls back to UKIP 2015 levels on 13%
Despite reports to the contrary against Boris the SNP fall even further than they got in 2017 to just 35% in Scotland with the Tories second on 20%, the LDs third on 16% and Labour only 4th on 15%.
Boris does particularly well in the Midlands and Wales with the Tories having a 12% lead, 32% to 20%, more even than the South where the Tories lead on 32% with the LDs second on 29%.
Boris also cuts the Labour lead to 6% in the North and 8% in London
A Boris led Tories are classless too, they lead the LDs 28% to 27% with ABC1s and they lead Labour 29% to 24% with C2DEs
This is all predicated on what happens with Brexit. If no deal happens under his watch and turns out to be a disaster then the Tories are toast .
Nope, No Deal will only likely happen given the current Parliament will continue to block it if Boris calls a general election and wins a majority with it in his manifesto
The benefit of Boris is that lots of Brexit Party supporters trust him, so will return to the Tories and give him a chance to get Brexit done.
The problem of Boris is that unless he fulfills those expectations (which realistically means either No Deal or a new very favourable deal out of nowhere) then those same voters will leave again - and having had their faith let down they'll be even harder to get back.
I think the myth that Johnson is some sort of political vote machine relies on the 2008 and 2012 elections in London. I don't think people understand that the voting coalition that got him elected as Mayor in those two years has been catastrophically destroyed by his actions with regard to Brexit especially in London. I suppose it depends on the geographical distribution of the voters his personality and record repelled and those who are attracted. It may well be the case the voters he picks up are in safe Labour seats and the ones that will not vote for him are in Conservative marginals...
Actually Boris led Tories lead most in the Midlands which is full of marginals
This is beginning to smell very whiffy indeed. Are we moving to yet another PM by acclamation cos MPs neither trust their membership, nor are interested in any kind of detailed discussion of policy, for fear of what that might reveal? Tory Unity. It got us where we are today.
Absolutely right. Another Tory coronation would be a disaster. This time they have to thrash out the arguments, hopefully have a TV debate, and then it must proceed to the membership. See how the candidates perform under pressure.
If the same had happened last time, T May would have been exposed as the useless politician she really is.
Lessons surely must be drawn: they have to be stress tested.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
Raab and Javid are the small state candidates and McVey and Baker offer the hardest Brexit of all on the Tory side, the LDs are still taking Labour voteshare as Corbyn only offers socialism not yet Remain.
Indeed against Boris the LDs are first and lead Labour 37% to 30% with Remainers as their Euro elections momentum continues while with Leavers Boris led Tories have a big lead 52% to 26% for the Brexit Party in second
Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris is odds-on now.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places Gove 4/1 Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.
Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
I've made peace with Boris.
If it started with him then maybe it's poetic that it ends with him, whatever that end is.
I have too but I wont vote for him but rather look like Boris is well on the way to being PM
One benefit is he will give Corbyn a run for his money
In a thread yesterday with@Cyclefree yesterday discussing PM Boris, I pointed out that "...The indecent Conservatives need somebody charismatic to "fail and blame" the EU, and the decent Conservatives will place unity and loyalty to the tribe above good governance. Unfortunately, Boris ticks a lot of boxes and has the Bannonite imprimatur, so is well funded...".
I am frequently disappointed by people, but rarely surprised...
You might get squeezed out again though when Labour pivot to Ref and Remain.
Ditto the BP on the right if leavers buy BoJo.
And then we have the Union angle.
Absolutely fascinating period ahead in British politics.
Labour have missed the boat, cannot swing to Remain now.
I don't know why Labour just doesn't let the WA pass now - there is plenty to be thrashed out in the next stage (we might as well go Norway++++++++++++ essentially just dropping our MEPs) but it just deals with the issue. Labour's strategy of saying they want Brexit, but not a no deal and not the only Brexit actually on offer is too clever by half.
The benefit of Boris is that lots of Brexit Party supporters trust him, so will return to the Tories and give him a chance to get Brexit done.
The problem of Boris is that unless he fulfills those expectations (which realistically means either No Deal or a new very favourable deal out of nowhere) then those same voters will leave again - and having had their faith let down they'll be even harder to get back.
I think the myth that Johnson is some sort of political vote machine relies on the 2008 and 2012 elections in London. I don't think people understand that the voting coalition that got him elected as Mayor in those two years has been catastrophically destroyed by his actions with regard to Brexit especially in London. I suppose it depends on the geographical distribution of the voters his personality and record repelled and those who are attracted. It may well be the case the voters he picks up are in safe Labour seats and the ones that will not vote for him are in Conservative marginals...
Actually Boris led Tories lead most in the Midlands which is full of marginals
I suppose it depends given that it is a hung parliament whether opinion poll ratings can be converted into net gains for a political party. It is no good decreasing majorities in Labour safe seats and increasing majorities in Tory held seats if the Tories don't gain much more on the ground! This applies across the country. At the last election the Tories got about 40% of the vote in Bolsover for instance, whereas Labour got over 50%. Political strategy has to be realistic not bordering on delusional.
Not necessarily. She resigns leadership not PM. Only resigns as PM at the moment she goes to the Palace. That would not happen imho if the winner was not likely to be able to command a majority.
A comment for simplicity's sake: For each candidate there is, realistically, only one question which they need to answer convincingly, unambiguously and without unicorns: What is your plan which is (a) not TM's deal (b) will be agreed by the EU (c) delivers Brexit and (d) convinces us that it will pass through the Commons and the Lords, and how are you to persuade us that you are right?
The entirely convincing answer which Boris can give is that there is a leaked poll stating that if he is elected the Conservatives will be ahead in the polls. No further questions will be asked of him nor answers required.
A comment for simplicity's sake: For each candidate there is, realistically, only one question which they need to answer convincingly, unambiguously and without unicorns: What is your plan which is (a) not TM's deal (b) will be agreed by the EU (c) delivers Brexit and (d) convinces us that it will pass through the Commons and the Lords, and how are you to persuade us that you are right?
The entirely convincing answer which Boris can give is that there is a leaked poll stating that if he is elected the Conservatives will be ahead in the polls. No further questions will be asked of him nor answers required.
You might get squeezed out again though when Labour pivot to Ref and Remain.
Ditto the BP on the right if leavers buy BoJo.
And then we have the Union angle.
Absolutely fascinating period ahead in British politics.
Labour have missed the boat, cannot swing to Remain now.
I don't know why Labour just doesn't let the WA pass now - there is plenty to be thrashed out in the next stage (we might as well go Norway++++++++++++ essentially just dropping our MEPs) but it just deals with the issue. Labour's strategy of saying they want Brexit, but not a no deal and not the only Brexit actually on offer is too clever by half.
The Jezza plan was that we leave, but it is a) totally Tory fault b) it is as chaotic as possible.
Not if she can't recommend a successor whom she believes commands the confidence of the House.
If she couldn't recommend her elected successor then she wouldn't be able to command a majority (the Tories would never support her in such circumstances) and she would be required to resign anyway.
Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?
Is Farage now a country or something? What the fuck does he think he is doing?
More than a touch of hubris going on, I feel.
I hope we don't have to wait long for nemesis.
He believes that he can win power in Westminster, either by winning an election or by being appointed by a Conservative government as a Coalition minister (or as a Minister From Outside Government, or GOAT as they are unofficially known). To that end he is setting up the bureaucracy so he can liaise with his US colleagues.
Not if she can't recommend a successor whom she believes commands the confidence of the House.
If she couldn't recommend her elected successor then she wouldn't be able to command a majority (the Tories would never support her in such circumstances) and she would be required to resign anyway.
Her Government might be. But where's the new PM coming from?
I suppose it depends given that it is a hung parliament whether opinion poll ratings can be converted into net gains for a political party. It is no good decreasing majorities in Labour safe seats and increasing majorities in Tory held seats if the Tories don't gain much more on the ground! This applies across the country. At the last election the Tories got about 40% of the vote in Bolsover for instance, whereas Labour got over 50%. Political strategy has to be realistic not bordering on delusional.
Tories ran close in Ashfield though, always a more realistic target than Bolsover - the 2017 strategy of targetting leave seats was fine, just the execution blew. The Tories probably shouldn't bother too much in Bolsover next time round, leave it for BXP to try and gain off Labour. Clowne should be a giant construction site come next GE anyway - locals really aren't happy about that.
Surely the Queen will send for them before any confidence vote?
This is where the constitutional arguments seem to be raging. Resigning PM usually advises Queen on who to send, even if this has been signalled well beforehand through the usual channels etc etc.
May might not be able to say that Boris (to take a random example) commands the majority.
Queen will already know from soundings and civil service etc etc.
All very tricky.
Depends whether the Tory Remain crew are rock solid in any plans not to give Boris any kind of Confidence Vote. In the end I doubt they will do this. But who knows.
Not if she can't recommend a successor whom she believes commands the confidence of the House.
If she couldn't recommend her elected successor then she wouldn't be able to command a majority (the Tories would never support her in such circumstances) and she would be required to resign anyway.
Her Government might be. But where's the new PM coming from?
Lidington temporarily I imagine. Either way May couldn't stay in office.
"Instead of spending billions on the NHS every year, let's give it to the EU instead"
How's that for the side of a bus?
Sunil, your support for the NHS is admirable. It is somewhat lessened by the point that your preferred option (leaving the EU) seems to have increased the possibility that it will be damaged.
Comments
Disputing this is ridiculous. He is definitely very clever, by any normal standards.
The question is whether he has the right kind of smartness, and can develop the necessary seriousness, to be a decent PM, especially in such trying times. That is a totally different issue. The jury is OUT.
Too late everyone knows he’s a liar.
If it's 2 purists, I will write in Ken Clarke.
Just a comment on political discourse rather than any specific remark but I hate the term "unicorn". It is so political class orientated. I have never heard anyone mention Unicorns apart from MPs and people who post on here. I actually think Unicorn is an inferior description to fantasy...
Some Tories behave as if no-one is watching.
If not Boris, the Brexit Party will overwhelm us, and Corbyn will be PM with a majority.
Even 4 weeks ago that would have been laughable.
He's out in round 1.
The problem of Boris is that unless he fulfills those expectations (which realistically means either No Deal or a new very favourable deal out of nowhere) then those same voters will leave again - and having had their faith let down they'll be even harder to get back.
Labour Remain voters still deserting them in their droves towards the Lib Dems and Greens.
The current fence sitting could be terminal .
Was the rider of the motorbike a young, bearded Socialist firebrand?
Believe me I hope he does do better than I think, but it is dispiriting to see a bunch of so called moderates lap at the feet of a man who spent a year saying everything May did was crap then voted for her deal because it was indeed better than the alternatives, and now will take us over the cliff hoping blind belief will see us through.
Despite reports to the contrary against Boris the SNP fall even further than they got in 2017 to just 35% in Scotland with the Tories second on 20%, the LDs third on 16% and Labour only 4th on 15%.
Boris does particularly well in the Midlands and Wales with the Tories having a 12% lead, 32% to 20%, more even than the South where the Tories lead on 32% with the LDs second on 29%.
Boris also cuts the Labour lead to 6% in the North and 8% in London
A Boris led Tories are classless too, they lead the LDs 28% to 27% with ABC1s and they lead Labour 29% to 24% with C2DEs
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf
He is a bit Churchillian, in good and bad ways. Churchill was an imperialist buffoon, responsible for Gallipoli, amongst other horrors. Yet that same Churchill caught the right rhetorical mood for Britain in 1940, when more sober, capable and sensible politicians had been found very wanting.
Boris has that air about him. He's a big gamble, but right now we are in a casino and we are £100k down on the night, facing bankruptcy.
What the hell, roll the dice?
I can see the logic. More importantly, I cannot see any obvious alternative candidate who is likely to do better.
As long as he doesn't turn out to be a gaylord ponceyboots, that's the main thing.
No hiding place.
Raab does best with the Tories on 24% under his leadership, ahead of the LDs on 22% with Labour third on 21%. The Brexit Party falls to 17%.
A Javid led Tories though can only tie the LDs 22% each with Labour on 21% and the Brexit Party still high on 20%.
A Gove led Tories would be third on 20% behind Labour and the LDs tied for the lead on 22% each with the Brexit Party again on 20%.
A Hunt led Tories sees the LDs lead on 22% with the Tories tied with Labour on 21% each and the Brexit Party getting its highest score of 21%
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf
Tory Unity. It got us where we are today.
Everything is hella volatile though, so who knows if this is continuing a trend of the start of a new one.
Report the news and keep your personal views private?
It's a double bluff. He knows that most people will only see through the 1st one.
Reason he knows that is because he is smart. He is VERY smart. Albeit a buffoon.
The 2 things do often go together. Think of Arthur Mullard.
And, of course, there will be a new LibDem leader to throw into the mix (which might make a difference in both directions).
Wrong yet again
Actually Boris led Tories lead most in the Midlands which is full of marginals
✊
If the same had happened last time, T May would have been exposed as the useless politician she really is.
Lessons surely must be drawn: they have to be stress tested.
You might get squeezed out again though when Labour pivot to Ref and Remain.
Ditto the BP on the right if leavers buy BoJo.
And then we have the Union angle.
Absolutely fascinating period ahead in British politics.
Vote LD, get LD.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1135967150341013504
Indeed against Boris the LDs are first and lead Labour 37% to 30% with Remainers as their Euro elections momentum continues while with Leavers Boris led Tories have a big lead 52% to 26% for the Brexit Party in second
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf
I am frequently disappointed by people, but rarely surprised...
[edit: remove duplicate]
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1135983115040673798
"Instead of spending billions on the NHS every year, let's give it to the EU instead"
How's that for the side of a bus?
You can take that to the bank.
I stake all the kudos I have built up on here for so long and so diligently on me being proved right on this particular point.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1135847912431394816
The Tories probably shouldn't bother too much in Bolsover next time round, leave it for BXP to try and gain off Labour. Clowne should be a giant construction site come next GE anyway - locals really aren't happy about that.
May might not be able to say that Boris (to take a random example) commands the majority.
Queen will already know from soundings and civil service etc etc.
All very tricky.
Depends whether the Tory Remain crew are rock solid in any plans not to give Boris any kind of Confidence Vote. In the end I doubt they will do this. But who knows.
If the PM to be has been to Palace and kissed the Queen's hand then iirc yes they are PM.