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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Flashback Wednesday

Here were the Next Prime Minister odds immediately after Theresa May took over in July 2016. pic.twitter.com/BXALM3ZKv0

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    Ha !
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    Milliband not soaring as high as Eagle, though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    Chaos with Ed Miliband would preferable right now
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,671
    The takeover of Newcastle United inches closer...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. P, depends. Preferable would've been a referendum on Lisbon.

    Suppose Miliband had won, and was so-so. More EU integration happens. And the split happens further down the line, when leaving is even more difficult. That situation would've been worse (although, I grant, the PM at the time is unlikely to have been quite so poor as May).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    Scott_P said:

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    Chaos with Ed Miliband would preferable right now
    I have often thought that. The Tory USP of being the party of the economy, business and aspiration has been shot to pieces by the Brexit nutters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    edited June 5
    If you'd have backed Corbyn and the 5 Tory MPs listed for £10 each then your book would be worth

    Boris £52.35
    Gove £31.64
    Javid £5.81
    Corbyn £1
    Hammond £0
    Osborne £0

    So you'd be £31.64 ahead of the game by now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The Tory USP of being the party of the economy, business and aspiration has been shot to pieces by the Brexit nutters.

    And the Union
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,241
    It takes skill to write a satirical article about Change UK, and be both unfunny and wrong:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/change-uk-name-splitters-splitting-up

    "the party that was supposed to be Britain’s answer to Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance (formerly known as En Marche!)"

    No. Renaissance is his European list (together with MoDem). His national party is still called La Republique En Marche.

    "Or mock the fact that the new party is now called – and I’m not even remotely kidding, Continuity Change UK"

    No it isn't. You've taken a throwaway line in the FT report too literally.

    "James Felton is a TV and radio comedy writer"

    For some value of the word "comedy", I guess.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,852

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    Like Boris becoming PM......
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Scott_P said:

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    Chaos with Ed Miliband would preferable right now
    I have often thought that. The Tory USP of being the party of the economy, business and aspiration has been shot to pieces by the Brexit nutters.
    Only a reckless fool would hazard to predict how this is all going to pan out in the future. So in my capacity as a reckless fool, I'll say that I think that the long term damage to the Tory brand is going to be massive. As the events themselves recede they'll be replaced not by a balanced view but by a general feeling of everything going to pot. It might not wipe them out, but I think it will stop the Tories getting into power on their own for a generation.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    Scott_P said:
    Yet another militaristic quotation from another nerdy Brexiteer. They really are pathetic.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,357

    Scott_P said:

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    Chaos with Ed Miliband would preferable right now
    I have often thought that. The Tory USP of being the party of the economy, business and aspiration has been shot to pieces by the Brexit nutters.
    You can't, however, make people travel in a direction they don't want to travel in.

    However, sensible, rational, and beneficial, European political and economic integration may seem to a centre right voter in Richmond, or the Stockbroker Belt, it doesn't seem sensible, rational, or beneficial, to centre-right voters elsewhere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    ... Can you remind me of the anecdote about bookies and tips :) ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,357
    47% for Conservative and Labour seems optimistic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. Recidivist, something to consider is what will happen when Farage retires (or if he should lose his magnetism to voters [yes, Islingtonian dinner party enthusiasts, you already think he's yuck, and focusing on that was partly why the pathetic Remain campaign failed, but he's clearly popular, or at least not disliked, by a large portion of the electorate).

    His old outfit, UKIP, effectively declined slowly before imploding.

    And if/when the EU issue is resolved, BP might come to a natural end of life.

    Or a far right (actually far right, not the sort of right-of-centre politics often described as far right, which has diluted the term dramatically) party might arise. That's a genuine possibility, and a concerning one.

    We already have the far left squatting on Labour's front bench, with the likes of Watson doing a better job of keeping sane Labour MPs marching under Corbyn's banner than he is of ousting the Communist himself.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,238
    Pulpstar said:

    ... Can you remind me of the anecdote about bookies and tips :) ?
    Time to pile in on the Brexit party then
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    Scott_P said:
    Indeed. A man who really has worn khaki rather than Farridge and his pathetic leaked picture of himself whilst in his public school CCF.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154

    Pulpstar said:

    ... Can you remind me of the anecdote about bookies and tips :) ?
    Time to pile in on the Brexit party then
    At 1.19 with Farage's record in by-elections outwith the incumbent changing party ?
    Bold !
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,477
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    Chaos with Ed Miliband would preferable right now
    I have often thought that. The Tory USP of being the party of the economy, business and aspiration has been shot to pieces by the Brexit nutters.
    You can't, however, make people travel in a direction they don't want to travel in.

    However, sensible, rational, and beneficial, European political and economic integration may seem to a centre right voter in Richmond, or the Stockbroker Belt, it doesn't seem sensible, rational, or beneficial, to centre-right voters elsewhere.
    But that wasn't the question. What has killed the Conservative Party hasn't been that divide, it has been the ERG nutjobs and assorted hangers-on like Boris trashing the deal, which would have implemented Brexit with relatively limited economic damage. It really is as simple as that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,942
    FPT - thanks to kingbongo (our man on the spot, sorry Buncco):

    I know there have been grand coalitions before in Denmark but has there been one recently? The two blocs, the red and the blue, seem to have stabilised in the past few years.

    Helle Thorning-Schmidt's coalition after 2011 was the Social Democrats, SF and Radikale but now there's a Green-ish tinge with Alternativen and Enhedslisten. Can Fredricksen hold this group together or will Radikale split off back to the centre-right?

    It may be she won't need all the parties to govern if the Social Democrats win more than 50 seats and the red bloc is well over 100 - I think the most likely outcome is a three-party Government with the other two staying out and providing support where needed.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,918
    @Morris_Dancer

    They are The Brexit Party not someone pretending to be a Brexit supporting party
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    In all seriousness, if JC was to be 'counseled out' I think Ed Miliband would be a good choice to take the wheel. Very bright. Left wing enough but not stuck in the 70s. And I sense capable.

    The big drawback is that he is not female (becoming a symbolic must for a Labour leader asap) but his gender is hardly his fault - and in fact in these days of fluidity may not be set in stone. Perhaps something could be arranged.
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235
    Scott_P said:
    What a strange creature he is - a bit like Carswell and not in any sense I understand a Conservative.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 497
    Completely OT, but does anyone have any sense of what the EU's gameplan is with Italy right now? Threatening an EDP just after the Italian parliament authorised the creation of minibots seems like a recipe for a(nother) full scale European banking crisis.

    Is there something about needing to get this started before the new MEPs take their seats?
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235
    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533

    Mr. Recidivist, something to consider is what will happen when Farage retires (or if he should lose his magnetism to voters [yes, Islingtonian dinner party enthusiasts, you already think he's yuck, and focusing on that was partly why the pathetic Remain campaign failed, but he's clearly popular, or at least not disliked, by a large portion of the electorate).

    His old outfit, UKIP, effectively declined slowly before imploding.

    And if/when the EU issue is resolved, BP might come to a natural end of life.

    Or a far right (actually far right, not the sort of right-of-centre politics often described as far right, which has diluted the term dramatically) party might arise. That's a genuine possibility, and a concerning one.

    We already have the far left squatting on Labour's front bench, with the likes of Watson doing a better job of keeping sane Labour MPs marching under Corbyn's banner than he is of ousting the Communist himself.

    Mr D, the Brexit Party IS a party of the far right. The fact that people like you who are clearly at the moderate end of Brexit opinion will not recognise it as such is a great pity. Farage is a racist and is energised by the polluted air of divisive populism. He doesn't wear jackboots and do funny salutes, but that doesn't rule him out from being a "modern" fascist.

    His backstory from his school days, his behaviour to others in his own party and his deplorable poster all tells us what he is. The fact that 32% of the population is gullible enough, or right wing enough, to support him is sad, but it does not surprise me. Britain is no more immune to extremism than anywhere else.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 25,026
    FPT:
    TGOHF said:

    » show previous quotes
    High taxes and a flatline economy don't help. Plus the once feted education system is going down the pan.

    Scotland needs 10-15 years of a party of enterprise in Holyrood to drive the economy and get the schools back on track.

    LOL , what higher taxes pray tell, you Tories like the fibbing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,918
    I thought he opposed Brexit?

    Oh! You mean a different revolt of the regions against London
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,803
    Tracey Crouch could replace Ken Clarke as my favourite Tory at this rate!!!

    Only just seen this.....


  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. Foremain, I don't believe it is.

    I would remind you, in case you missed it, that prior to the EU elections the coverage of the rallies were something that I found disconcerting (indeed, despite having some sympathy with the kick up the arse sentiment that was outweighed by dislike of the 'lock her up' chanting).

    What actions or policies does the party (well, business, it not being registered as a party is another murky doing that displeased me) have, or has done, that make it fascist?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    Can someone clarify please? Re 5 and 10% thresholds for Tories.
    I keep seeing a candidate will need 17 MPs in the first round, and 33 in each subsequent round to progress. Correct me if I am wrong, but there are 314 Tory MPs. Doesn't that make 16 and 32? Just curious.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed. A man who really has worn khaki rather than Farridge and his pathetic leaked picture of himself whilst in his public school CCF.
    Puts the faux nostalgia and sanitised WW2 tales of derring-do from the time Britain stood "alone" in perspective. Those who were actually there at the time take a different view.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,852
    Scott_P said:
    200 MPs rush to sign up for the "Death" bit.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    Is anyone backing or laying Boris further at his current price of 1.91 ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,082

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed. A man who really has worn khaki rather than Farridge and his pathetic leaked picture of himself whilst in his public school CCF.
    Puts the faux nostalgia and sanitised WW2 tales of derring-do from the time Britain stood "alone" in perspective. Those who were actually there at the time take a different view.
    Do they, or are we relying on anecdotes again?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815
    FPT: cited as a Wikipedia source - fame at last!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    kinabalu said:

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    In all seriousness, if JC was to be 'counseled out' I think Ed Miliband would be a good choice to take the wheel. Very bright. Left wing enough but not stuck in the 70s. And I sense capable.

    The big drawback is that he is not female (becoming a symbolic must for a Labour leader asap) but his gender is hardly his fault - and in fact in these days of fluidity may not be set in stone. Perhaps something could be arranged.
    There was a time when he appeared ludicrous and too lightweight as a potential PM. Now we have the prospect of Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab, it seems everything is relative.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299
    malcolmg said:

    FPT:
    TGOHF said:

    » show previous quotes
    High taxes and a flatline economy don't help. Plus the once feted education system is going down the pan.

    Scotland needs 10-15 years of a party of enterprise in Holyrood to drive the economy and get the schools back on track.

    LOL , what higher taxes pray tell, you Tories like the fibbing.

    Higher income tax than England for a start. For instance basic rate is 19% in England, 20% in Scotland. Higher rate starts on a salary of £43430 compared to £50,000 in England.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed. A man who really has worn khaki rather than Farridge and his pathetic leaked picture of himself whilst in his public school CCF.
    Puts the faux nostalgia and sanitised WW2 tales of derring-do from the time Britain stood "alone" in perspective. Those who were actually there at the time take a different view.
    My grandfather, who spent four years as a PoW in Poland, voted leave in 1975. But he died in 1990 so I guess he doesn’t count.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,059

    FPT: cited as a Wikipedia source - fame at last!

    Alas, someone almost immediately got wind of it and scrubbed you off.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,477
    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    It seems likely that there's a range of views across all age groups. Although it's eyebrow-raising to see the hate-filled, xenophobic coffin-dodgers have suddenly transmogrified into noble, heroic, pro-EU sages.

    Perhaps better to avoid stereotyping generally, and to discuss issues than castigate people (particularly based on their demography, which is sheer bigotry).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    I've got him and Patel (Who I don't think will run) down as the only two that would actually follow through with a genuine attempt at leaving without a deal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    kinabalu said:

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    In all seriousness, if JC was to be 'counseled out' I think Ed Miliband would be a good choice to take the wheel. Very bright. Left wing enough but not stuck in the 70s. And I sense capable.

    The big drawback is that he is not female (becoming a symbolic must for a Labour leader asap) but his gender is hardly his fault - and in fact in these days of fluidity may not be set in stone. Perhaps something could be arranged.
    kinabalu said:

    Mr. B, Ed Miliband might yet return. Stranger things have happened.

    In all seriousness, if JC was to be 'counseled out' I think Ed Miliband would be a good choice to take the wheel. Very bright. Left wing enough but not stuck in the 70s. And I sense capable.

    The big drawback is that he is not female (becoming a symbolic must for a Labour leader asap) but his gender is hardly his fault - and in fact in these days of fluidity may not be set in stone. Perhaps something could be arranged.
    He also could be someone who could gain the confidence and supply of BOTH the LDs and SNP were the electoral arithmetic to require it. Unlike Corbyn.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,036
    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone backing or laying Boris further at his current price of 1.91 ?

    Having fallen into the classic trap of laying others once I'd specifically deposited to oppose the crazy Leadsom price, my joint book (both markets) is around:

    Hunt +6
    Mordaunt / McVey +5
    Gove +4
    Raab / Javid +3
    Johnson +1.5
    Hancock +1
    Stewart -2
    Patel -5
    Baker, Leadsom -8
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533

    Mr. Foremain, I don't believe it is.

    I would remind you, in case you missed it, that prior to the EU elections the coverage of the rallies were something that I found disconcerting (indeed, despite having some sympathy with the kick up the arse sentiment that was outweighed by dislike of the 'lock her up' chanting).

    What actions or policies does the party (well, business, it not being registered as a party is another murky doing that displeased me) have, or has done, that make it fascist?

    It is led, and was created by a man called Nigel Farage. It is the personification of him in the same way as The Revolutionary Fascist Party was the personification of Mussolini. Farage is just the 21st century version with nips and tucks to make him more acceptable to the more reactionary minded of the present day.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,852
    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    Nah, even TSE would vote for Boris in that case.

    Although his vote might be denoted by a cock and balls.....
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235

    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
    Take the blinkers off FFs - I was a Remain voter - but if 2016 wasn't a provincial revolt wtf is?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    I have already turned to the Yellow Peril. It is quite liberating really. Yes there are some unpleasant people in the LibDems, but at least there seems to be less nutters and bigots
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,379
    edited June 5
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
    Take the blinkers off FFs - I was a Remain voter - but if 2016 wasn't a provincial revolt wtf is?
    It was a provincial revolt, but it was also partly a provincial revolt organised from the multimillion-pound offices of newspapers in London, and led in the short-term by a London born-and-bred commodities broker, in partnership with an old Etonian former Mayor of London.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,059
    edited June 5

    It seems likely that there's a range of views across all age groups. Although it's eyebrow-raising to see the hate-filled, xenophobic coffin-dodgers have suddenly transmogrified into noble, heroic, pro-EU sages.

    Perhaps better to avoid stereotyping generally, and to discuss issues than castigate people (particularly based on their demography, which is sheer bigotry).

    The hate-fill xenophobes tend to be more those baby-boomer sods, with their LSD-addled brains from the summer of love and generous pensions.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed. A man who really has worn khaki rather than Farridge and his pathetic leaked picture of himself whilst in his public school CCF.
    Puts the faux nostalgia and sanitised WW2 tales of derring-do from the time Britain stood "alone" in perspective. Those who were actually there at the time take a different view.
    Do they, or are we relying on anecdotes again?
    I remember seeing some research showing the very old who remember the War as youths or young adults (I.e., over 90 or so), are considerably more pro-EU than the whippersnappers who followed them.
    Can't recall where though.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,129
    edited June 5
    Ireland have finished to count the Euro votes.

    Ireland South third seat went to Mick Wallace (Indy4Change)
    The 4th to Greens Grace O'Sullivan
    The post Brexit seat is for Deirdre Clune (Fine Gael).

  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    At some point hopefully in the not too distant future a party of the centre right has to emerge and take up the mantle. In Spain it increasingly looks as if Ciudadanos may be replacing PP. Unfortunately the Lds in the UK are way too left-wing for most centre-right voters except on the one issue.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
    Take the blinkers off FFs - I was a Remain voter - but if 2016 wasn't a provincial revolt wtf is?
    It was a moment of self harming collective insanity (well of 52% of those voting) . Countries have them sometimes. Whether it was a "provincial revolt" or not is down to whether you believe in the bullshitty hyperbole beloved of the average Brexit apologist.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002
    dixiedean said:

    He also could be someone who could gain the confidence and supply of BOTH the LDs and SNP were the electoral arithmetic to require it. Unlike Corbyn.

    Yes, probably so.

    All told, Ed is a very viable proposition. An idea whose time has gone - and come.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,918
    dixiedean said:

    Can someone clarify please? Re 5 and 10% thresholds for Tories.
    I keep seeing a candidate will need 17 MPs in the first round, and 33 in each subsequent round to progress. Correct me if I am wrong, but there are 314 Tory MPs. Doesn't that make 16 and 32? Just curious.

    I assume it’s *in addition* to themselves
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,379
    edited June 5

    It seems likely that there's a range of views across all age groups. Although it's eyebrow-raising to see the hate-filled, xenophobic coffin-dodgers have suddenly transmogrified into noble, heroic, pro-EU sages.

    Perhaps better to avoid stereotyping generally, and to discuss issues than castigate people (particularly based on their demography, which is sheer bigotry).

    The hate-fill xenophobes tend to me more those baby-boomer sods, with their LSD-addled brains from the summer of love and generous pensions.
    I would say the generation after are actually more conservative. Many of the most vociferous brexiters seem to be around 55-65, rather than older.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,477

    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone backing or laying Boris further at his current price of 1.91 ?

    Having fallen into the classic trap of laying others once I'd specifically deposited to oppose the crazy Leadsom price, my joint book (both markets) is around:

    Hunt +6
    Mordaunt / McVey +5
    Gove +4
    Raab / Javid +3
    Johnson +1.5
    Hancock +1
    Stewart -2
    Patel -5
    Baker, Leadsom -8
    I've got (omitting from the list various obsolete bets but taking account of them in the net P+L):

    Hunt +10
    McVey +10
    Javid +7
    Gove +6.5
    Boris +6
    Raab +4.5
    Baker +4
    Patel, Hancock and others not listed -2
    Leadsom -5
    Stewart -5

    .. the shape of which I'm quite pleased with. I'd like to flog off some McVey if I can find any punters willing to take it off my hands at a reasonable price.
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
    Take the blinkers off FFs - I was a Remain voter - but if 2016 wasn't a provincial revolt wtf is?
    It was a provincial revolt, but it was also partly a provincial revolt organised from the multimillion-pound offices of newspapers in London, and led in the short-term by a London born-and-bred commodities broker, in a partnership with an old Etonian former Mayor of London.
    So what?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,477
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    At some point hopefully in the not too distant future a party of the centre right has to emerge and take up the mantle. In Spain it increasingly looks as if Ciudadanos may be replacing PP. Unfortunately the Lds in the UK are way too left-wing for most centre-right voters except on the one issue.
    Yes, Rory is the man to lead it!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,379
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
    Take the blinkers off FFs - I was a Remain voter - but if 2016 wasn't a provincial revolt wtf is?
    It was a provincial revolt, but it was also partly a provincial revolt organised from the multimillion-pound offices of newspapers in London, and led in the short-term by a London born-and-bred commodities broker, in a partnership with an old Etonian former Mayor of London.
    So what?
    So it wasn't just a provincial revolt.
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
    Take the blinkers off FFs - I was a Remain voter - but if 2016 wasn't a provincial revolt wtf is?
    It was a moment of self harming collective insanity (well of 52% of those voting) . Countries have them sometimes. Whether it was a "provincial revolt" or not is down to whether you believe in the bullshitty hyperbole beloved of the average Brexit apologist.
    Democracy can be awkward at times - didn't some wise person say it's the worst way to run a country - except for all of the alternatives.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,918

    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone backing or laying Boris further at his current price of 1.91 ?

    Having fallen into the classic trap of laying others once I'd specifically deposited to oppose the crazy Leadsom price, my joint book (both markets) is around:

    Hunt +6
    Mordaunt / McVey +5
    Gove +4
    Raab / Javid +3
    Johnson +1.5
    Hancock +1
    Stewart -2
    Patel -5
    Baker, Leadsom -8
    Pretty
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533

    It seems likely that there's a range of views across all age groups. Although it's eyebrow-raising to see the hate-filled, xenophobic coffin-dodgers have suddenly transmogrified into noble, heroic, pro-EU sages.

    Perhaps better to avoid stereotyping generally, and to discuss issues than castigate people (particularly based on their demography, which is sheer bigotry).

    The hate-fill xenophobes tend to me more those baby-boomer sods, with their LSD-addled brains from the summer of love and generous pensions.
    I would say the generation after are actually more conservative. Many of the most vociferous brexiters seem to be around 55-65.
    Brexiteers are not conservatives in the real sense. They are wreckers and revolutionaries, who are quite happy to risk economic chaos to pursue their small minded ideology. Conservatives like to maintain stability. The Conservative Party is no more.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,036
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone backing or laying Boris further at his current price of 1.91 ?

    Having fallen into the classic trap of laying others once I'd specifically deposited to oppose the crazy Leadsom price, my joint book (both markets) is around:

    Hunt +6
    Mordaunt / McVey +5
    Gove +4
    Raab / Javid +3
    Johnson +1.5
    Hancock +1
    Stewart -2
    Patel -5
    Baker, Leadsom -8
    Pretty
    Mr Nabavi's is prettier :blush:
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,036
    I am very hopeful of a decent Mordaunt trade. Surely she is running?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed. A man who really has worn khaki rather than Farridge and his pathetic leaked picture of himself whilst in his public school CCF.
    Puts the faux nostalgia and sanitised WW2 tales of derring-do from the time Britain stood "alone" in perspective. Those who were actually there at the time take a different view.
    Do they, or are we relying on anecdotes again?
    How are we meant to do history, if not by finding and concatenating anecdotes? Difficult, for any number of reasons, to construct a large-scale double blind prospective study with well-defined primary endpoints. So what do you suggest?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 3,946
    Not sure if anyone saw that clip on BBC of the D-Day veteran being interviewed .

    Brought a lump to my throat . And out of nowhere he mentions his worries about Brexit .

    That clip should shame all those who question the patriotism of those who wanted to stay in the EU .
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
    Take the blinkers off FFs - I was a Remain voter - but if 2016 wasn't a provincial revolt wtf is?
    It was a provincial revolt, but it was also partly a provincial revolt organised from the multimillion-pound offices of newspapers in London, and led in the short-term by a London born-and-bred commodities broker, in a partnership with an old Etonian former Mayor of London.
    So what?
    So it wasn't just a provincial revolt.
    Do you really not get that several millions of ordinary folk, wrongly in my view, just have never got on with the EU and said so. Trying to explain away their decision with that sort of claptrap got us into this mess and the venom since then from people who don't accept the result has led to the Euro result the other day.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 521
    dixiedean said:
    My 72 year old father voted remain, so there you are :) (And not just because he has a French wife...)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    edited June 5
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can someone clarify please? Re 5 and 10% thresholds for Tories.
    I keep seeing a candidate will need 17 MPs in the first round, and 33 in each subsequent round to progress. Correct me if I am wrong, but there are 314 Tory MPs. Doesn't that make 16 and 32? Just curious.

    I assume it’s *in addition* to themselves
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can someone clarify please? Re 5 and 10% thresholds for Tories.
    I keep seeing a candidate will need 17 MPs in the first round, and 33 in each subsequent round to progress. Correct me if I am wrong, but there are 314 Tory MPs. Doesn't that make 16 and 32? Just curious.

    I assume it’s *in addition* to themselves
    Ah cheers. OK fair enough.
    Edit. No idea why my iPad is double quoting. At least it's better than those >>>>
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002

    There was a time when he appeared ludicrous and too lightweight as a potential PM. Now we have the prospect of Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab, it seems everything is relative.

    Ed wasn't lightweight IMO. Not at all. I think that was to do with his appearance.

    Many of his policy ideas were sound enough to be nicked by others and the core of his economic analysis - 'predator capitalism' vs 'value added enterprise' - was acute and went beyond soundbite.

    Top geez in many ways.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,115
    Scott_P said:
    LDs should tell them to join or F off
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    He also could be someone who could gain the confidence and supply of BOTH the LDs and SNP were the electoral arithmetic to require it. Unlike Corbyn.

    Yes, probably so.

    All told, Ed is a very viable proposition. An idea whose time has gone - and come.
    The fall and rise of Edinald Millerrin. Delivering his own brand of Grot - product that is only slightly less useless than the mindless rubbish now served up by the BrexitCon Party (it's new name after the merger)
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235

    It seems likely that there's a range of views across all age groups. Although it's eyebrow-raising to see the hate-filled, xenophobic coffin-dodgers have suddenly transmogrified into noble, heroic, pro-EU sages.

    Perhaps better to avoid stereotyping generally, and to discuss issues than castigate people (particularly based on their demography, which is sheer bigotry).

    The hate-fill xenophobes tend to me more those baby-boomer sods, with their LSD-addled brains from the summer of love and generous pensions.
    I would say the generation after are actually more conservative. Many of the most vociferous brexiters seem to be around 55-65.
    Brexiteers are not conservatives in the real sense. They are wreckers and revolutionaries, who are quite happy to risk economic chaos to pursue their small minded ideology. Conservatives like to maintain stability. The Conservative Party is no more.
    What ? All 18 million of them. Face it - the vote was lost.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,379
    edited June 5
    kinabalu said:

    There was a time when he appeared ludicrous and too lightweight as a potential PM. Now we have the prospect of Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab, it seems everything is relative.

    Ed wasn't lightweight IMO. Not at all. I think that was to do with his appearance.

    Many of his policy ideas were sound enough to be nicked by others and the core of his economic analysis - 'predator capitalism' vs 'value added enterprise' - was acute and went beyond soundbite.

    Top geez in many ways.
    Yes. The tabloid version of "awkward" seemed to have got translated to "lightweight" at the time, but he was never intellectually, at least, lightweight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    Just seen the Gyimah interview.
    Why the hell is Steve Bray sticking his bloody signs up when the only person campaigning for remain within the Tory leadership is being interviewed ?
    As bad as that Brexit woman interrupting David Davies !

    Some absolubte arseholes on both sides ><
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 521
    felix said:



    Do you really not get that several millions of ordinary folk, wrongly in my view, just have never got on with the EU and said so. Trying to explain away their decision with that sort of claptrap got us into this mess and the venom since then from people who don't accept the result has led to the Euro result the other day.

    But how much of that is because of genuine reasons and how much because of all the crap they read about it in eurosceptic press?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,477

    I am very hopeful of a decent Mordaunt trade. Surely she is running?

    Sounded like it this morning. It's a hole in my book.
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,235
    Scott_P said:
    The quality of the current political crop - I nearly misspelt the word for obvious reasons - is truly sub-optimal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171
    Talking of the Prince over the Water:

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll never let Baker into the contest, but I think he'd romp home with the membership probably even against Boris.

    God, I'd have to vote LibDem.

    Come to think of it, I might have to vote LibDem anyway. This is not an agreeable prospect.
    Although more agreeable for Auchentennach Fine Pies .... :wink:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Massive self-awareness failure there from Tarzan. Did he really NOT notice the 2016 Referendum result?
    Yes of course, I think he noticed the moronic stupidity of it . Each day that goes by further proves him right.
    Take the blinkers off FFs - I was a Remain voter - but if 2016 wasn't a provincial revolt wtf is?
    It was a provincial revolt, but it was also partly a provincial revolt organised from the multimillion-pound offices of newspapers in London, and led in the short-term by a London born-and-bred commodities broker, in a partnership with an old Etonian former Mayor of London.
    So what?
    So it wasn't just a provincial revolt.
    Do you really not get that several millions of ordinary folk, wrongly in my view, just have never got on with the EU and said so. Trying to explain away their decision with that sort of claptrap got us into this mess and the venom since then from people who don't accept the result has led to the Euro result the other day.
    I personally accept that it is a problem, but I certainly don't buy the crap that because 52% of those voting voted in favour of it the rest of us should just shut up. I wouldn't care if 95% of people voted in favour of torture and public execution. I would still oppose it as I believe it is wrong
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,918

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone backing or laying Boris further at his current price of 1.91 ?

    Having fallen into the classic trap of laying others once I'd specifically deposited to oppose the crazy Leadsom price, my joint book (both markets) is around:

    Hunt +6
    Mordaunt / McVey +5
    Gove +4
    Raab / Javid +3
    Johnson +1.5
    Hancock +1
    Stewart -2
    Patel -5
    Baker, Leadsom -8
    Pretty
    Mr Nabavi's is prettier :blush:
    I learnt long ago not to compare relative prettiness
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,379
    edited June 5
    Nice rebuke to the Daily Mail too, which in an earlier anti-semitic era they seem to have forgotten about, ran a campaign against him in the "dangerous cosmpolitan" vein.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002

    The fall and rise of Edinald Millerrin. Delivering his own brand of Grot - product that is only slightly less useless than the mindless rubbish now served up by the BrexitCon Party (it's new name after the merger)

    You can only beat what's in front of you.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed. A man who really has worn khaki rather than Farridge and his pathetic leaked picture of himself whilst in his public school CCF.
    Puts the faux nostalgia and sanitised WW2 tales of derring-do from the time Britain stood "alone" in perspective. Those who were actually there at the time take a different view.
    Do they, or are we relying on anecdotes again?
    I believe that there is data showing that voters over 85 were predominantly remain, it's the slightly younger group - 55-75 - that gave leave its majority.
This discussion has been closed.