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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the betting markets have this right Peterborough could have

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  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,272

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    America under Roosevelt was not interested either until December 41.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    _Anazina_ said:

    Roger said:

    _Anazina_ said:
    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
    Cracking stuff.

    "Melania Trump, whose miserable countenance seems living testament to the old adage that when you marry for money, you earn every penny."

    :lol: x 10

    That's the only good line in it. The rest is as dull as ditch-water, especially given the absolute hilarity of the material. But, this being the Guardian, it has to be twisted into a mind-numbingly tedious anti-British rant, as boring and predictable as most of the Guardian cartoons.
    Oh god. Get over yourself.
    He's obliged to find it funny?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    Were the polls right in Denmark in terms of predicting a big percentage win for the Red bloc of around 55%? The seat numbers suggest it was closer than that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

    That is quite a prediction, have you been to Peterborough? Though it is true to say even on current polls the Labour Party should hold Peterborough
    During the campaign? No. It’s just a gut feeling from the various rumours I’ve heard.
    To me the Brexit Party looks a far slicker operation than UKIP, making excellent use of social media and well targeted leaflets and they had hundreds of canvassers out in the seat on Saturday.

    I suppose if it is a very low turnout Labour could scrape home if they get their vote out but I think the mood will be for a Brexit Party protest vote of those who do turn out
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
    There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.

    I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
    It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.

    Oh to not live in interesting times again
    Give it 10 years.
    Unfortunately I am not immortal
    TBH judging by the republicans in the US it is the new card to play, so every Labour leader is going to be anti semitic from now on, like Corbyn they won't actually be.
    Megan McCain is so upset that she can't call Bernie antisemitic. Though she did say Eli Valley was...
    Bernie doesn't really count, he is just an old white guy, that is what I keep hearing.. it is mildly confusing but I'm sure there must be something in it...

    Eli is one of them wrong uns I guess, Megan will set him straight.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,704

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    Bits are. The Now Show is patchy, but always has some good moments. I’ve started to like Night Terrace, a total Hitchhikers rip-off Aussie style. Archival stuff often excellent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    rcs1000 said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    Whilst I don't disagree with your main point, the fact that the previous Labour MP went to jail is very unlikely to make much difference. As a general rule, voters don't punish parties much if at all for the crimes of their previous candidates. See, for example, Eastleigh by-election 2013, Watford GE 2010, Rotherham by-election 2012, Barnsley Central by-election 2011, Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election 2011.
    That's true. Which should make a potential Brecon and Radnorshire by-election if, I assume, the criminal MP there stands as he is entitled to, and under the Tory banner to boot.

    Given how much the Tory vote is down at the moment, I doubt they'd be confident of holding it even with a new candidate, if the election occurs.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,103
    Final result from Denmark

    Social Democrats 25.93. (26.3 in 2015) - 48 seats (+1)

    Denmark's Liberal Party 23.39 (19.5) - 43 seats (+9)

    Danish People's Party 8.73 (21.1) - 16 seats (-21)

    Danish Social Liberal Party 8.62 (4.6) - 16 seats (+8)

    Socialist People's Party 7.71 (4.2) -14 seats (+7)

    Red Green Alliance 6.93 (7.8). -13 seats (-1)

    Conservative People's Party 6.61 (3.4) - 12 seats (+6)

    The Alternative 2.95 (4.8) - 5 seats (-4)

    The New Right 2.35 - 4 seats (+4)

    Liberal Alliance 2.33 (7.5) - 4 seats (-9)

    Hard Line 1.79 - 0 seats

    Christian Democrats 1.73 (0.8). - 0 seats
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056

    I think it might be a good compromise, some people want a leadership contest but a lot of people don't.

    So have a deputy leadership contest instead. The mandate is looking a bit stale from all the way back in 2015 anyway.
    Role is for life or until they resign iirc. But happy to be corrected.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    edited June 5

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    Bits are. The Now Show is patchy, but always has some good moments. I’ve started to like Night Terrace, a total Hitchhikers rip-off Aussie style. Archival stuff often excellent.
    The Now Show is absolutely painful. I sometimes hear a few minutes of it whilst waiting for the news. It's excruciating, and they obviously realise how awful it is because they try to cover up the dullness with noise.

    Of course the archival stuff is different.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    edited June 5
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    If someone could screengrab this forecast and then use it to laugh at me tomorrow evening, that would be great
    Broadly agree. However, not sure of your 40% reasoning. Why on Earth should Brexit get more of a share in a by election than in an election which is specifically and exclusively about Europe?
    Am also prepared to be laughed at, but I make chances for a win at.
    TBP 70%
    Lab 25%
    Somebody else 5%.
    Which makes a few quid on all Labour, LDs and Cons value for me.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    It’s an elegant piece of satire that quite pointedly defines the absurdity of their president and our monarchy. There are a few funnies within it. But, essentially, it’s just poking fun at what was a painfully fawning, pathetic, embarrassing couple of days.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546
    Floater said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
    I am longing for Corbyn or a crony to claim that D day was funded by the Rothschilds to further the cause of Zionism (which it undoubtedly did).
    https://order-order.com/2019/06/05/corbyn-praised-appeasing-hitler-disarming-second-world-war/

    I understand Harold Godwinson also personally blamed Corbyn for the defeat to William the Conqueror, with apologies to Guido for spoiling a future splash there...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    edited June 5
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    It’s an elegant piece of satire that quite pointedly defines the absurdity of their president and our monarchy. There are a few funnies within it. But, essentially, it’s just poking fun at what was a painfully fawning, pathetic, embarrassing couple of days.
    Exactly. You want to find a political point, you're not really interested in whether it's funny or not. And yet the whole state visit was absolutely hilarious from beginning to end, not that you'd know from that article.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    edited June 5
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    It’s an elegant piece of satire that quite pointedly defines the absurdity of their president and our monarchy. There are a few funnies within it. But, essentially, it’s just poking fun at what was a painfully fawning, pathetic, embarrassing couple of days.
    Pathetic and embarrassing? When Trump has had visits to other nations too, and we don't look down on them I am sure, because what a sad thing to do that would be.

    Maybe you should take your own advice and get over yourself, and stop feeling sorry for yourself on behalf of the nation because an arsehole politician is given a state visit because of the office he unfortunately holds. Oh, what horrors. And the media cover it too? I fear I may collapse from the shame.

    I'm happy to just laugh at the man, frankly.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 5
    AndyJS said:

    Were the polls right in Denmark in terms of predicting a big percentage win for the Red bloc of around 55%? The seat numbers suggest it was closer than that.

    No, you are right the result was closer. Main difference was Venstre overperformed by 6%.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546

    I think it might be a good compromise, some people want a leadership contest but a lot of people don't.

    So have a deputy leadership contest instead. The mandate is looking a bit stale from all the way back in 2015 anyway.
    Role is for life or until they resign iirc. But happy to be corrected.
    Probably right, I think they've gone when leaders have (or just after) mainly but not sure on the rules. No obvious method to get rid of him involuntarily I don't think.

    Actually I think MPs can if they want to VONC a deputy leader (or something similar) but that isn't happening anyway.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    ...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    edited June 5

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    I love John Finnemore (sp?) and Dead Ringers. Most of it is very poor though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    edited June 5

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    In the absence of a landslide what leader of ours would be bold enough and secure enough to do so, even assuming the plan they had really was great? Bodge jobs will be the order of the day.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    It’s an elegant piece of satire that quite pointedly defines the absurdity of their president and our monarchy. There are a few funnies within it. But, essentially, it’s just poking fun at what was a painfully fawning, pathetic, embarrassing couple of days.
    Exactly. You want to find a political point, you're not really interested in whether it's funny or not. And yet the whole state visit was absolutely hilarious from beginning to end, not that you'd know from that article.
    I found it funny, as I have said. But it was also a good exploration of the absolutely sycophantic way we treated this moron.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081

    rcs1000 said:

    Ha! That's nothing. Streatham has had an MP from three different parties in the last six months.

    And they've managed it without inconveniencing voters or wasting public money on elections.
    It’s like the old joke in the City - you can work for three firms in a year without ever moving your desk
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Apparently Raab crashed and burned at the One Nation hustings tonight .

    I’m beginning to wonder whether he’s a plant for Bozo . He’s making him look sane and sensible .

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    edited June 5
    kle4 said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    In the absence of a landslide what leader of ours would be bold enough and secure enough to do so, even assuming the plan they had really was great?
    Yes, it would need a government with a big majority to address this. That looks unlikely as things stand, so I fear we're not going to make much progress. The only ray of hope I can see is that there are some good initiatives to integrate the NHS side with the social care side more intelligently.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081

    _Anazina_ said:

    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Biden-O’Rourke is probably the winning ticket.

    But will the Democrats have the good sense?

    Gotta be Biden.

    But he has to pick a female veep.

    I would be astounded if he does not.
    You think he’ll smell the ... coffee?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501

    AndyJS said:

    Were the polls right in Denmark in terms of predicting a big percentage win for the Red bloc of around 55%? The seat numbers suggest it was closer than that.

    No, you are right the result was closer. Main difference was Venstre overperformed by 6%.
    Thanks. Some polls had the red bloc on 62% and that seemed difficult to believe.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,173
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Roger said:

    _Anazina_ said:
    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
    Cracking stuff.

    "Melania Trump, whose miserable countenance seems living testament to the old adage that when you marry for money, you earn every penny."

    :lol: x 10

    That's the only good line in it. The rest is as dull as ditch-water, especially given the absolute hilarity of the material. But, this being the Guardian, it has to be twisted into a mind-numbingly tedious anti-British rant, as boring and predictable as most of the Guardian cartoons.
    Oh god. Get over yourself.
    He's obliged to find it funny?
    The orotund outrage that other people might find stuff funny that one doesn't is quite funny in itself. Though of course no one is obliged to agree with me.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,704

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    Bits are. The Now Show is patchy, but always has some good moments. I’ve started to like Night Terrace, a total Hitchhikers rip-off Aussie style. Archival stuff often excellent.
    The Now Show is absolutely painful. I sometimes hear a few minutes of it whilst waiting for the news. It's excruciating, and they obviously realise how awful it is because they try to cover up the dullness with noise.

    Of course the archival stuff is different.
    If I was a Tory I think that I’d strongly dislike the Now Show, and the News Quiz. But then they make tedious stuff like Just a Minute for Tories, don’t they?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

    That is quite a prediction, have you been to Peterborough? Though it is true to say even on current polls the Labour Party should hold Peterborough
    During the campaign? No. It’s just a gut feeling from the various rumours I’ve heard.
    To me the Brexit Party looks a far slicker operation than UKIP, making excellent use of social media and well targeted leaflets and they had hundreds of canvassers out in the seat on Saturday.

    I suppose if it is a very low turnout Labour could scrape home if they get their vote out but I think the mood will be for a Brexit Party protest vote of those who do turn out
    Oh that side is definitely slicker but on the ground it seems mad. They keep going back to the train station for a start, you know where all the London transplants are walking by and get reminded to vote for their opponents...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    AndyJS said:

    Were the polls right in Denmark in terms of predicting a big percentage win for the Red bloc of around 55%? The seat numbers suggest it was closer than that.

    The ones taken in the final couple of days suggested, in the main, somewhat closer than that. Was within MOE though. Traditional swing back effect?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    It’s an elegant piece of satire that quite pointedly defines the absurdity of their president and our monarchy. There are a few funnies within it. But, essentially, it’s just poking fun at what was a painfully fawning, pathetic, embarrassing couple of days.
    Pathetic and embarrassing? When Trump has had visits to other nations too, and we don't look down on them I am sure, because what a sad thing to do that would be.

    Maybe you should take your own advice and get over yourself, and stop feeling sorry for yourself on behalf of the nation because an arsehole politician is given a state visit because of the office he unfortunately holds. Oh, what horrors. And the media cover it too? I fear I may collapse from the shame.

    I'm happy to just laugh at the man, frankly.

    I don’t see anything to commend a ‘state visit’ and would prefer that we didn’t have a state-funded monarchy that we pay to boost the already overinflated egos of morons like Trump. The entire miserable spectacle spoke to entitlement, rather than a society based on hard work and talent. One born-in silver-spooner licking the backside of another.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    nico67 said:

    Apparently Raab crashed and burned at the One Nation hustings tonight .

    I’m beginning to wonder whether he’s a plant for Bozo . He’s making him look sane and sensible .


    Way out of his depth I have always thought.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    edited June 5

    If I was a Tory I think that I’d strongly dislike the Now Show, and the News Quiz. But then they make tedious stuff like Just a Minute for Tories, don’t they?

    Just a Minute? Blimey, is that still going? It was past its spike-by date 30 years ago.

    The News Quiz used to be quite amusing, but has gone downhill.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,272

    nico67 said:

    Apparently Raab crashed and burned at the One Nation hustings tonight .

    I’m beginning to wonder whether he’s a plant for Bozo . He’s making him look sane and sensible .


    Way out of his depth I have always thought.
    All the personality of a cardboard cut-out. To proceed with Brexit as he has said he would, he would need a lot of charisma to take people with him. He has none.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    Roger said:

    _Anazina_ said:
    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
    I don’t know the precise configuration of the Abbey by heart, but was he possibly asking about the Cosmati Floor - which is one of the most exciting parts of the abbey. Not just “what stone is the floor made from”
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,704

    If I was a Tory I think that I’d strongly dislike the Now Show, and the News Quiz. But then they make tedious stuff like Just a Minute for Tories, don’t they?

    Just a Minute? Blimey, is that still going? It was past its spike-by date 30 years ago.

    The News Quiz used to be quite amusing, but has gone downhill.
    Yepp, Just a Minute is currently on series number 84. F...... dire. Pretty much unlistenable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    edited June 5
    _Anazina_ said:

    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    It’s an elegant piece of satire that quite pointedly defines the absurdity of their president and our monarchy. There are a few funnies within it. But, essentially, it’s just poking fun at what was a painfully fawning, pathetic, embarrassing couple of days.
    Pathetic and embarrassing? When Trump has had visits to other nations too, and we don't look down on them I am sure, because what a sad thing to do that would be.

    Maybe you should take your own advice and get over yourself, and stop feeling sorry for yourself on behalf of the nation because an arsehole politician is given a state visit because of the office he unfortunately holds. Oh, what horrors. And the media cover it too? I fear I may collapse from the shame.

    I'm happy to just laugh at the man, frankly.

    I don’t see anything to commend a ‘state visit’ and would prefer that we didn’t have a state-funded monarchy that we pay to boost the already overinflated egos of morons like Trump. The entire miserable spectacle spoke to entitlement, rather than a society based on hard work and talent. One born-in silver-spooner licking the backside of another.
    You know visits like this happen in places without monarchies, right? The idea as a nation we should feel shame for such things, particularly as you seem to think it a unique level shame, is just dumb when you frame it as speaking to our society somehow. And your advice for others to get over themselves is looking more and more hilarious given the chip on your shoulder on this topic.

    Just ignore it - I've not followed a single aspect of it, other than running commentary from people, usually you, asking about it on PB. Why let Trump get to you so much? He was here, hands were shaken for diplomatic nicities, and then he's gone. As horrible as he is there are far worse in the world.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    Is that Boris's lowest betting yet? Must be pretty close.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    Haven't seen any linked clips of Rory talking to people - is he taking a day off, given up, or actually doing the day job?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056

    nico67 said:

    Apparently Raab crashed and burned at the One Nation hustings tonight .

    I’m beginning to wonder whether he’s a plant for Bozo . He’s making him look sane and sensible .


    Way out of his depth I have always thought.
    All the personality of a cardboard cut-out. To proceed with Brexit as he has said he would, he would need a lot of charisma to take people with him. He has none.
    Honestly, I just don't get why he is anywhere near a ministerial position never mind PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    We won't know what the true odds should have been till the results are in tommorow night, but there's enough there for me to have had a small bet against the Brexit party at 1.19.

    Labour were 1.22/UKIP 5.10 in Oldham West and Royton, which was crazily wrong with hindsight; Lab should have been 1.02 and UKIP 51+
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    edited June 5
    Noone's got rich backing Nige at by-elections :E

    https://betting.betfair.com/politics/uk-politics/oldham-west-royton-by-election-betting-odds-tips-3-december-2015-181115-136.html

    "The first by-election of this parliament is in a traditionally safe Labour seat but Neil Monnery isn't convinced it is the best setting for the politics of Jeremy Corbyn."

    "The talk on the ground has been that Labour are in trouble but would have enough to hold on for quite a while. It would be a lot closer than the talking heads were predicting but they would get over the line. The Paris attacks on Friday night though coupled with Jeremy Corbyn's response has opened the door for UKIP."

    Recommended Bet
    Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election at 5.10 on the Betfair Exchange.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    Yes it is going to be Boris. Since I don't wish for disaster I will hope he will do better than I think, but his cocky, flippant approach to everything, concerns dismissed with faux-churchillan guff, will ensure a very bitter reaction to him if he does not deliver. Sure, he has charisma others lack, but if that charisma is not eventually backed up by something he may find a very vitrolic response from those he idly promised so many things.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    kle4 said:

    Haven't seen any linked clips of Rory talking to people - is he taking a day off, given up, or actually doing the day job?

    There was a report earlier that he's switched to talking to Tory MPs, in the hope of getting enough backing to continue. It's no doubt a forlorn hope, but he's carved out a niche, raised his profile, and has put down a marker for the future. I think it has been a very creditable effort.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Curious. But there is a chance, which is actually a shame, as we've been promises he will face a challenge if Labour lose, and we may as well get all the parties undertaking leadership contests, it's just efficient.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,360

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    kle4 said:

    Haven't seen any linked clips of Rory talking to people - is he taking a day off, given up, or actually doing the day job?

    Looks like he had a more traditional political rally.

    Rory Stewart (@RoryStewartUK) Tweeted:
    Look forward to seeing you to continue challenge and conversation 6.30pm tonight
    Pennine Place, 2a Charing Cross Rd, London, WC2H 0HF #RoryWalks https://t.co/IAiZALaCok
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    kle4 said:

    Yes it is going to be Boris. Since I don't wish for disaster I will hope he will do better than I think, but his cocky, flippant approach to everything, concerns dismissed with faux-churchillan guff, will ensure a very bitter reaction to him if he does not deliver. Sure, he has charisma others lack, but if that charisma is not eventually backed up by something he may find a very vitrolic response from those he idly promised so many things.
    And how will he do at PMQs? Not sure his flagrant disregard for details, will serve him well, even against someone as poor as Corbyn.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,360
    Just for fun, who from the Corbyn central team would Kier Starmer keep if he managed to oust the Glorious Leader?

    I can't see him keeping many
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056

    kle4 said:

    Haven't seen any linked clips of Rory talking to people - is he taking a day off, given up, or actually doing the day job?

    Looks like he had a more traditional political rally.

    Rory Stewart (@RoryStewartUK) Tweeted:
    Look forward to seeing you to continue challenge and conversation 6.30pm tonight
    Pennine Place, 2a Charing Cross Rd, London, WC2H 0HF #RoryWalks https://t.co/IAiZALaCok
    He has also spent a lot of time meeting MPs in recent days. Needs them now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    I wouldn't. But then I'm more interested in Byron than flooring. Weird isn't it? :).
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    Bits are. The Now Show is patchy, but always has some good moments. I’ve started to like Night Terrace, a total Hitchhikers rip-off Aussie style. Archival stuff often excellent.
    The Now Show is absolutely painful. I sometimes hear a few minutes of it whilst waiting for the news. It's excruciating, and they obviously realise how awful it is because they try to cover up the dullness with noise.

    Of course the archival stuff is different.
    The Now Show is not as good as it was five years ago, but Dead Ringers is better - though they will suffer if Boris becomes PM because they do everyone else better.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    A low turnout in Peterborough would probably be good for Labour.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546
    kle4 said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Curious. But there is a chance, which is actually a shame, as we've been promises he will face a challenge if Labour lose, and we may as well get all the parties undertaking leadership contests, it's just efficient.
    There wouldn't have been a leadership contest anyway, it was very unlikely regardless of the result. Labour members are quite stubborn on the leadership question at the moment and even some of those MPs who oppose Corbyn are much more realistic on the subject. David Blunkett who I'm sure isn't a fan wrote an article the other day saying how there won't be a change in leadership, he is not saying that because he wants it to be true.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    kle4 said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Curious. But there is a chance, which is actually a shame, as we've been promises he will face a challenge if Labour lose, and we may as well get all the parties undertaking leadership contests, it's just efficient.
    I assumed it was tomorrow, as today is a Wednesday?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    Bits are. The Now Show is patchy, but always has some good moments. I’ve started to like Night Terrace, a total Hitchhikers rip-off Aussie style. Archival stuff often excellent.
    The Now Show is absolutely painful. I sometimes hear a few minutes of it whilst waiting for the news. It's excruciating, and they obviously realise how awful it is because they try to cover up the dullness with noise.

    Of course the archival stuff is different.
    The Now Show is not as good as it was five years ago, but Dead Ringers is better - though they will suffer if Boris becomes PM because they do everyone else better.
    Yes. Jan Ravens must be the only person in the country who was willing Theresa to stay on.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546

    Just for fun, who from the Corbyn central team would Kier Starmer keep if he managed to oust the Glorious Leader?

    I can't see him keeping many

    Depends what he was hoping to do and how he manages to oust him...

    If the membership stayed the same and still liked Corbyn then presumably he would keep quite a few of them around to not annoy the membership any more than needed. Making his ideal cabinet with no other considerations is a different matter....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    _Anazina_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Curious. But there is a chance, which is actually a shame, as we've been promises he will face a challenge if Labour lose, and we may as well get all the parties undertaking leadership contests, it's just efficient.
    I assumed it was tomorrow, as today is a Wednesday?
    Yes, hence his tweet being so curious. I just meant if it proved prophetic there is some reason behind the event
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    I wouldn't. But then I'm more interested in Byron than flooring. Weird isn't it? :).
    Meanwhile Trumpton, who, famously, Does Not Read.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,360
    AndyJS said:

    A low turnout in Peterborough would probably be good for Labour.

    Only if the low turnout was from their core vote. Which I don't think is guaranteed.

    They will feel bruised by having their previous MP kicked out of office
    They will feel bruised by the Euro result
    They will feel bruised by the press coverage of the candidate and her links to very unsavoury postings

    Sure, the Momentum party within a party will feel motivated to support JC no matter what. But that isn't enough.

    I think TBP voters might be more motivated to try to continue the surge from 2 weeks ago
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    kle4 said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Curious. But there is a chance, which is actually a shame, as we've been promises he will face a challenge if Labour lose, and we may as well get all the parties undertaking leadership contests, it's just efficient.
    There wouldn't have been a leadership contest anyway, it was very unlikely regardless of the result. Labour members are quite stubborn on the leadership question at the moment and even some of those MPs who oppose Corbyn are much more realistic on the subject. David Blunkett who I'm sure isn't a fan wrote an article the other day saying how there won't be a change in leadership, he is not saying that because he wants it to be true.
    I believe you, I just wish if so many mps even now think Corbyn is the problem then they should act even if to be defeated.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Curious. But there is a chance, which is actually a shame, as we've been promises he will face a challenge if Labour lose, and we may as well get all the parties undertaking leadership contests, it's just efficient.
    I assumed it was tomorrow, as today is a Wednesday?
    Yes, hence his tweet being so curious. I just meant if it proved prophetic there is some reason behind the event
    Interesting to see the comments underneath. Apparently it is students voting both in person and by post, which is impossible. From Peterborough University, which doesn't exist. Brexit facts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 39,126
    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    Vote is tomorrow, so not sure where Andrew is getting his info from. Perhaps an enjoyable time at the pub?!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    Women protesting against equality with men.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48520176
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,360
    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    The point I was making was that the way to make this worse for Labour is to suggest that they have already won it, thus reducing enthusiasm to actually turn out to vote - which makes it harder for Labour to retain the seat.

    This has nothing to do with the result and everything to do with someone trying to mess with Labour voters before the polls open.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    I haven’t seen what campaign leaflets Labour have put out for Peterborough so not sure what’s been their central message .

    As a Labour Remainer if I lived there I’d be thinking twice about voting Lib Dem or Green . As much as I want Corbyn to get the message the thought of Farage all over the news and peddling his no deal garbage might keep me in the Labour camp .

    Although the BP are strong favourites Labour did get 48% of the vote there in 2017.

    It’s amazing that we’ve not had a single poll from there .

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    Reportedly the local Tory and Labour parties worked hard to encourage 25% of the electorate to sign the recall petition. I would guess that 25% would make up the bulk of the by-election turnout. So it follows that the local party machines would have some good information to help with getting the vote out.

    I think Labour are quite well-placed, but then Corbyn's record in by-elections is nearly as bad as Farage's.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056

    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    The point I was making was that the way to make this worse for Labour is to suggest that they have already won it, thus reducing enthusiasm to actually turn out to vote - which makes it harder for Labour to retain the seat.

    This has nothing to do with the result and everything to do with someone trying to mess with Labour voters before the polls open.
    Is it on Wednesday because Thursday is D-Day?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,272
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Curious. But there is a chance, which is actually a shame, as we've been promises he will face a challenge if Labour lose, and we may as well get all the parties undertaking leadership contests, it's just efficient.
    I assumed it was tomorrow, as today is a Wednesday?
    Yes, hence his tweet being so curious. I just meant if it proved prophetic there is some reason behind the event
    Interesting to see the comments underneath. Apparently it is students voting both in person and by post, which is impossible. From Peterborough University, which doesn't exist. Brexit facts.
    Anglia Ruskin has a campus in Peterborough, I believe.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,360

    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    The point I was making was that the way to make this worse for Labour is to suggest that they have already won it, thus reducing enthusiasm to actually turn out to vote - which makes it harder for Labour to retain the seat.

    This has nothing to do with the result and everything to do with someone trying to mess with Labour voters before the polls open.
    Is it on Wednesday because Thursday is D-Day?
    Where is everyone getting the idea that the voting took place on Wednesday?

    It has always been scheduled for 6th June -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election

    Pierce is just playing with people
  • RobDRobD Posts: 39,126

    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    The point I was making was that the way to make this worse for Labour is to suggest that they have already won it, thus reducing enthusiasm to actually turn out to vote - which makes it harder for Labour to retain the seat.

    This has nothing to do with the result and everything to do with someone trying to mess with Labour voters before the polls open.
    Is it on Wednesday because Thursday is D-Day?
    Where is everyone getting the idea that the voting took place on Wednesday?

    It has always been scheduled for 6th June -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election

    Pierce is just playing with people
    Fake news, some might say.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 5

    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    The point I was making was that the way to make this worse for Labour is to suggest that they have already won it, thus reducing enthusiasm to actually turn out to vote - which makes it harder for Labour to retain the seat.

    This has nothing to do with the result and everything to do with someone trying to mess with Labour voters before the polls open.
    Is it on Wednesday because Thursday is D-Day?
    Where is everyone getting the idea that the voting took place on Wednesday?

    It has always been scheduled for 6th June -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election

    Pierce is just playing with people
    I thought that was obvious when I posted it but clearly not... :/ My sarcasm needs some work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056

    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    The point I was making was that the way to make this worse for Labour is to suggest that they have already won it, thus reducing enthusiasm to actually turn out to vote - which makes it harder for Labour to retain the seat.

    This has nothing to do with the result and everything to do with someone trying to mess with Labour voters before the polls open.
    Is it on Wednesday because Thursday is D-Day?
    Where is everyone getting the idea that the voting took place on Wednesday?

    It has always been scheduled for 6th June -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election

    Pierce is just playing with people
    I thought that was obvious when I posted it but clearly not... :/ My sarcasm needs some work.
    Partly my fault. I checked the date of election and got 6th. I had not noticed the clock had crept past the midnight hour, so assumed that meant Wednesday (as in yesterday etc etc).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    edited June 5

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Curious. But there is a chance, which is actually a shame, as we've been promises he will face a challenge if Labour lose, and we may as well get all the parties undertaking leadership contests, it's just efficient.
    I assumed it was tomorrow, as today is a Wednesday?
    Yes, hence his tweet being so curious. I just meant if it proved prophetic there is some reason behind the event
    Interesting to see the comments underneath. Apparently it is students voting both in person and by post, which is impossible. From Peterborough University, which doesn't exist. Brexit facts.
    Anglia Ruskin has a campus in Peterborough, I believe.
    With fewer than 1000 students. My point was that it is an insight into people's knee jerk prejudices. If TBP lose it will be "bloody students" cheating , as if their votes aren't worth anyone else's, even if there aren't many of them. If they do win it will be ignorant, thick provincial racists, also cheating somehow.
    Both sides are at it. The quicker we realise this the better.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 377

    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    The point I was making was that the way to make this worse for Labour is to suggest that they have already won it, thus reducing enthusiasm to actually turn out to vote - which makes it harder for Labour to retain the seat.

    This has nothing to do with the result and everything to do with someone trying to mess with Labour voters before the polls open.
    How many Daily Mail reading Labour voters in Peterborough could there be ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    Reportedly the local Tory and Labour parties worked hard to encourage 25% of the electorate to sign the recall petition. I would guess that 25% would make up the bulk of the by-election turnout. So it follows that the local party machines would have some good information to help with getting the vote out.

    I think Labour are quite well-placed, but then Corbyn's record in by-elections is nearly as bad as Farage's.

    He's had some good and bad by-elections. Oldham West and Royton was an absolubte triumph. Copeland a disaster.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    Thanks for mentioning it by name. It's fascinating.

    https://www.westminster-abbey.org/about-the-abbey/history/cosmati-pavement
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    nico67 said:

    I haven’t seen what campaign leaflets Labour have put out for Peterborough so not sure what’s been their central message .

    As a Labour Remainer if I lived there I’d be thinking twice about voting Lib Dem or Green . As much as I want Corbyn to get the message the thought of Farage all over the news and peddling his no deal garbage might keep me in the Labour camp .

    Although the BP are strong favourites Labour did get 48% of the vote there in 2017.

    It’s amazing that we’ve not had a single poll from there .

    We do know the European elections result though was Brexit Party 38%, Labour 17%, LDs 15% and Tories 11%.

    I think it will be more a question of whether the LDs can beat Labour for second than whether the Brexit Party win it, with the Tories trailing in 4th. If Labour do win it will because of good GOTV and Bristow for the Tories doing better than expected and thus splitting the Leave vote when the Brexit Party needs it largely united behind them
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    I wouldn't. But then I'm more interested in Byron than flooring. Weird isn't it? :).
    So am I

    But this is special

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmati
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546
    PaulM said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Seems like the Daily Mail have heard the results from the by-election already...

    Ah the joys of clumsy expectations management on behalf of the party you oppose...

    Since when have byelections been held on Wednesdays? Is there a special reason for it?
    The point I was making was that the way to make this worse for Labour is to suggest that they have already won it, thus reducing enthusiasm to actually turn out to vote - which makes it harder for Labour to retain the seat.

    This has nothing to do with the result and everything to do with someone trying to mess with Labour voters before the polls open.
    How many Daily Mail reading Labour voters in Peterborough could there be ?
    If Labour lose by 5 votes then I know who to blame...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546
    edited June 5
    Pulpstar said:

    Reportedly the local Tory and Labour parties worked hard to encourage 25% of the electorate to sign the recall petition. I would guess that 25% would make up the bulk of the by-election turnout. So it follows that the local party machines would have some good information to help with getting the vote out.

    I think Labour are quite well-placed, but then Corbyn's record in by-elections is nearly as bad as Farage's.

    He's had some good and bad by-elections. Oldham West and Royton was an absolubte triumph. Copeland a disaster.
    Tory hold ;)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    I haven’t seen what campaign leaflets Labour have put out for Peterborough so not sure what’s been their central message .

    As a Labour Remainer if I lived there I’d be thinking twice about voting Lib Dem or Green . As much as I want Corbyn to get the message the thought of Farage all over the news and peddling his no deal garbage might keep me in the Labour camp .

    Although the BP are strong favourites Labour did get 48% of the vote there in 2017.

    It’s amazing that we’ve not had a single poll from there .

    We do know the European elections result though was Brexit Party 38%, Labour 17%, LDs 15% and Tories 11%.

    I think it will be more a question of whether the LDs can beat Labour for second than whether the Brexit Party win it, with the Tories trailing in 4th. If Labour do win it will because of good GOTV and Bristow for the Tories doing better than expected and thus splitting the Leave vote when the Brexit Party needs it largely united behind them
    The Lib Dems only got 3% in 2017 compared to Labours 48% . If Labour get beaten into third by them that would be an absolute shocker .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    I wouldn't. But then I'm more interested in Byron than flooring. Weird isn't it? :).
    So am I

    But this is special

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmati
    That is nice, yes. I have a father who worked in construction and loved to point out a nice Flemish bond or a cheeky bit of pointing so maybe I should check my prejudices...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    I haven’t seen what campaign leaflets Labour have put out for Peterborough so not sure what’s been their central message .

    As a Labour Remainer if I lived there I’d be thinking twice about voting Lib Dem or Green . As much as I want Corbyn to get the message the thought of Farage all over the news and peddling his no deal garbage might keep me in the Labour camp .

    Although the BP are strong favourites Labour did get 48% of the vote there in 2017.

    It’s amazing that we’ve not had a single poll from there .

    We do know the European elections result though was Brexit Party 38%, Labour 17%, LDs 15% and Tories 11%.

    I think it will be more a question of whether the LDs can beat Labour for second than whether the Brexit Party win it, with the Tories trailing in 4th. If Labour do win it will because of good GOTV and Bristow for the Tories doing better than expected and thus splitting the Leave vote when the Brexit Party needs it largely united behind them
    That European election result is for the whole council. Hanretty estimated the breakdown for the Peterborough constituency, which is better for Labour;

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    I wouldn't. But then I'm more interested in Byron than flooring. Weird isn't it? :).
    So am I

    But this is special

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmati
    That is nice, yes. I have a father who worked in construction and loved to point out a nice Flemish bond or a cheeky bit of pointing so maybe I should check my prejudices...
    Maybe Trump was being gauche. May be he wasn’t. My approach is to give people the benefit of the doubt
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,958
    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    edited June 6
    Prediction for the Peterborough by-election:

    BRX 31%
    Lab 29%
    Con 17%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 3%
    Green 2%
    Others 3%

    Turnout 34%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    Some interviews with Peterborough voters (including it seems Michael Palin or a dead ringer for him)

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/meet-voters-peterborough-brexit-party-16260678
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited June 6

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    I haven’t seen what campaign leaflets Labour have put out for Peterborough so not sure what’s been their central message .

    As a Labour Remainer if I lived there I’d be thinking twice about voting Lib Dem or Green . As much as I want Corbyn to get the message the thought of Farage all over the news and peddling his no deal garbage might keep me in the Labour camp .

    Although the BP are strong favourites Labour did get 48% of the vote there in 2017.

    It’s amazing that we’ve not had a single poll from there .

    We do know the European elections result though was Brexit Party 38%, Labour 17%, LDs 15% and Tories 11%.

    I think it will be more a question of whether the LDs can beat Labour for second than whether the Brexit Party win it, with the Tories trailing in 4th. If Labour do win it will because of good GOTV and Bristow for the Tories doing better than expected and thus splitting the Leave vote when the Brexit Party needs it largely united behind them
    That European election result is for the whole council. Hanretty estimated the breakdown for the Peterborough constituency, which is better for Labour;

    Even at constituency level though less than 10% between the LDs and Labour but 15% between Labour and the Brexit Party.

    If that 10% for the Greens moves LD and they squeeze Labour Remainers the LDs could snatch second place
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    I didn't have a clue he'd ever been in Labour. Interesting.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    The most in-depth preview of the Peterborough by-election you'll find anywhere, courtesy of Andrew Teale.

    http://britainelects.com/2019/06/05/previews-06-jun-2019/
This discussion has been closed.