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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the betting markets have this right Peterborough could have

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Well written piece from OJ drawing parallels between Trump and the Republicans and Johnson and the Conservatives.

    I personally do not find Johnson anything like as objectionable as Trump, but nevertheless some food for thought here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/06/boris-johnson-trump-tory-mps
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    TGOHF said:

    ICE are the past - you can prop up these plants for a few more years but ultimately they have no future.

    Bigger question is how to bring electrical vehicle manufacturing to the Uk.

    Electric cars, whilst growing fast, are still less than 1% of new sales in the UK.
    It's a bit early to be calling time on ICE car factories...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/07/consumers-apply-the-brakes-to-uk-new-car-sales
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    nico67 said:

    If you had a difficult investment decision to make .

    Do you gamble with that in the UK with such huge uncertainty and the threat of tariffs and supply delays .

    Brexit is one factor that can tip a decision the wrong way for UK workers .

    Regardless of the reasons for Ford the current climate is not condusive to making long term business investments in the UK if your main export market is the EU.

    Which is why Brexit needs to happen sooner rather than later.

    Then we can get our big fat bribes out to attract investment to an attractive environment - Thatcherism 2.0.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    A few reflections on the Danish election yesterday:

    The centre-left bloc got there and without needing the support of the Alternative with the Social Democrat, Radikale, SF and Enhedslisten getting 91 seats and a majority on their own. It wasn't all plain sailing with the Social Democrats again under-achieving on some of their pre-election polling and historically, 2019 is another poor result for them. Nonetheless, Mette Fredricksen will become Prime Minister though with confident and assertive partners it may not be as simple as it seems.

    On the centre-right, paradoxically, Venstre did surprisingly well (though not if you had followed the EU elections) and moved forward in votes and seats. The problem was their partners had an awful night with the Dansk Folkeparti dropping 21 seats and the Liberal Alliance 9 seats. True, the Conservatives made some headway but the centre-right drop in seats was just too great and they've ended up at 75.

    Venstre's position as the leading centre-right party was confirmed with them having 43 seats and it's not escaped my notice that a "Grand Coalition" of Social Democrats and Venstre would also have 91 seats - a thought for another day.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Dura_Ace said:

    You don't really have to go a long way back. It's a copy of the logo Hillary (pbuh) used in 2015-6.

    Oh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    HYUFD said:

    Peterborough prediction: the only way Brexit Party don't win is if the Tories put in a surprisingly strong showing. Given they will have been working this seat for months ahead of the recall petition and the recall petition itself as a potential gain, I suspect they will deliver on the upside....

    Four parties in the twenties? Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber '92 anyone?

    My prediction

    Brexit Party 35%, LDs 20%, Labour 18%, Tories 10%, Greens 5%, UKIP 1%, CUK 1%
    Er… who's getting the other 10% ?
    Some will be split between this lot

    - Christian Peoples Alliance: Tom Rogers
    - Common Good: Remain In The EU: Dick Rodgers
    - English Democrats: Stephen Goldspink
    - Independent: Andrew Moore
    - Independent: Bobby Smith
    - Monster Raving Loony: Alan "Howling Laud" Hope
    - Renew: Peter Ward
    - SDP: Patrick O'Flynn
    - UK European Union Party: Pierre Kirk

    But it'll be way less than 10%.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    If you had a difficult investment decision to make .

    Do you gamble with that in the UK with such huge uncertainty and the threat of tariffs and supply delays .

    Brexit is one factor that can tip a decision the wrong way for UK workers .

    Regardless of the reasons for Ford the current climate is not condusive to making long term business investments in the UK if your main export market is the EU.

    Which is why Brexit needs to happen sooner rather than later.

    Then we can get our big fat bribes out to attract investment to an attractive environment - Thatcherism 2.0.

    Create crap economic conditions and then bribe companies to create jobs? You have more in common with Arthur Scargill than Thatcher.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I suppose Ford shedding 5000 jobs in Germany and closing a plant there is due to Brexit as well? And VW? And Daimler? All with job losses announced in Germany so far this year?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I can guarantee that no Scottish car plants will be impacted by Brexit malc.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Dylan - so many great lyrics it is hard to select any one over the other. I bet Theresa May was tempted by a few during the state visit. "You got a lot of nerve, to say you are my friend".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    If you had a difficult investment decision to make .

    Do you gamble with that in the UK with such huge uncertainty and the threat of tariffs and supply delays .

    Brexit is one factor that can tip a decision the wrong way for UK workers .

    Regardless of the reasons for Ford the current climate is not condusive to making long term business investments in the UK if your main export market is the EU.

    Which is why Brexit needs to happen sooner rather than later.

    Then we can get our big fat bribes out to attract investment to an attractive environment - Thatcherism 2.0.

    Create crap economic conditions and then bribe companies to create jobs? You have more in common with Arthur Scargill than Thatcher.
    Works for your beloved Ireland william..

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    If you had a difficult investment decision to make .

    Do you gamble with that in the UK with such huge uncertainty and the threat of tariffs and supply delays .

    Brexit is one factor that can tip a decision the wrong way for UK workers .

    Regardless of the reasons for Ford the current climate is not condusive to making long term business investments in the UK if your main export market is the EU.

    Which is why Brexit needs to happen sooner rather than later.

    Then we can get our big fat bribes out to attract investment to an attractive environment - Thatcherism 2.0.

    Create crap economic conditions and then bribe companies to create jobs? You have more in common with Arthur Scargill than Thatcher.
    Works for your beloved Ireland william..

    So now you want to join the Eurozone?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
    Would some jobs be safe? Yes
    Would some jobs be at risk but still ongoing for a further period? Yes
    Would some jobs still have been lost anyway if we voted remain? Yes
    Will more jobs go when/if we actually Brexit? Yes
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I'm no second reffer but how does leaving the EU help the car industry, particularly the reintroduction of tariffs and so forth with the EU that would be present in a 'hard' brexit ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm no second reffer but how does leaving the EU help the car industry, particularly the reintroduction of tariffs and so forth with the EU that would be present in a 'hard' brexit ?

    You may ask the same about many other industries as well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    He realises he is reviewing a dramatisation and not a documentary, right ?
    I pretty sure she does...
    But like it or not, reality based drama shapes our views of history.
    Yes it does, but it will never be able to be, nor even should be, totally accurate, or else the drama would suffer from an override of complexity and detail, or just not be as effective a story.
    They made an extraordinary effort for authenticity... and utterly failed to capture the nature of Soviet society.
    And the root cause of the disaster.
    Then enlighten us.
    Try reading the article.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    Dura_Ace said:

    You don't really have to go a long way back. It's a copy of the logo Hillary (pbuh) used in 2015-6.

    Which was widely ridiculed at the time...
    https://abcnews.go.com/International/hillary-clinton-logo-2016-presidential-campaign-riles-internet/story?id=30277034

    There must be a moral in there somewhere ?
    (Other than don't pick Hillary as your candidate.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I suppose Ford shedding 5000 jobs in Germany and closing a plant there is due to Brexit as well? And VW? And Daimler? All with job losses announced in Germany so far this year?
    It is so obvious that the reasons for the job losses are a mix of Brexit and other changes to the economy, yet the narrative for the black and white world of modern politics has to be that it is either/or not both together.

    This is becoming the end of the enlightenment, reason and reality does not matter, it is all about emotion to validate the religious belief system.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    It is ridiculous to make international comparisons based on national averages.

    I'm curious to see the figures for poverty if it was defined as 60% of European median rather than national median.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited June 2019
    In a world of no shit Sherlock, saying that the UK 'may fail to mount an operation like' Overlord/Neptune nowadays probably wins today's prize. I doubt a Dieppe is even within our capabilities...

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1136418713673097216
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    If you had a difficult investment decision to make .

    Do you gamble with that in the UK with such huge uncertainty and the threat of tariffs and supply delays .

    Brexit is one factor that can tip a decision the wrong way for UK workers .

    Regardless of the reasons for Ford the current climate is not condusive to making long term business investments in the UK if your main export market is the EU.

    Which is why Brexit needs to happen sooner rather than later.

    Then we can get our big fat bribes out to attract investment to an attractive environment - Thatcherism 2.0.

    Create crap economic conditions and then bribe companies to create jobs? You have more in common with Arthur Scargill than Thatcher.
    Works for your beloved Ireland william..

    So now you want to join the Eurozone?
    Ireland have the same tax rates as the rest of the Eurozone ? It's a view.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited June 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm no second reffer but how does leaving the EU help the car industry, particularly the reintroduction of tariffs and so forth with the EU that would be present in a 'hard' brexit ?

    You may ask the same about many other industries as well.
    We really need to leave on as soft a Norway, CM, SM trade as possible. Leaving without a deal is obviously bad and staying in leads to a choice of Corbyn or Farage for next PM (The strong remain/Lib Dem vote is too concentrated under FPTP I fear and they're not the Dominic Grieve/David Laws party now anyway). I really do think any form of leaving at all spikes Farage's guns.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
    Safer
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
    Safer
    Ford may have closed anyway, but without Brexit other inward investors would have created other manufacturing jobs in the same region. And before some economic illiterate replies that we have not seen as much inward investment as we do know, most of this is going to the property market and buying UK assets cheaply, not to investment in job creation.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited June 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm no second reffer but how does leaving the EU help the car industry, particularly the reintroduction of tariffs and so forth with the EU that would be present in a 'hard' brexit ?

    You may ask the same about many other industries as well.
    We really need to leave on as soft a Norway, CM, SM trade as possible. Leaving without a deal is obviously bad and staying in leads to a choice of Corbyn or Farage for next PM (The strong remain/Lib Dem vote is too concentrated under FPTP I fear and they're not the Dominic Grieve/David Laws party now anyway). I really do think any form of leaving at all spikes Farage's guns.
    I agree. Offer a referendum to choose between the Norway model and hard Brexit. It's not betrayal and Norway would win easily imo.
  • I think the wider issue with the car industry is that it has had a long-term boom with first one car households, then two car households and then multi-car households. We are now at the stage that there simply isn't any further room for organic growth (as opposed to replacing old cars).

    The trend for multi-car households may also start to go backwards somewhat due to things like increased deployment of resident parking zones, increased road tax etc
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
    The would be safer. Personally the sneering tone from pro-Brexit armchair economists is exactly why support for Brexit is fading away like snow on a hot day.

    It is not that Brexit brings the Night army to Bridgend. It is the incremental economic decisions that erode our investment and undermine our global competitiveness, and that is exactly what is happening.

    Several Tories think that if they don't enact Brexit they will be obliterated. In fact it is if they DO enact it, against the growing majority who oppose Brexit that will obliterate them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    I think the wider issue with the car industry is that it has had a long-term boom with first one car households, then two car households and then multi-car households. We are now at the stage that there simply isn't any further room for organic growth (as opposed to replacing old cars).

    The trend for multi-car households may also start to go backwards somewhat due to things like increased deployment of resident parking zones, increased road tax etc

    IME cars are also becoming more reliable - though I haven't seen figures for this. And this might mean we hang onto them or longer.

    As an example,. some cars come new with seven or five year warranties.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    It is ridiculous to make international comparisons based on national averages.

    I'm curious to see the figures for poverty if it was defined as 60% of European median rather than national median.
    Agreed. And I find the use of the word poverty in the UK offensive. Relative poverty is simply not poverty. It is inequality, which should still be challenged and balanced with far far greater equality of opportunity than we have in the current system, but it is not poverty.

    The 14 million who are apparently in poverty in the UK would typically be in the top 20% wealthiest globally.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    PeterC said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm no second reffer but how does leaving the EU help the car industry, particularly the reintroduction of tariffs and so forth with the EU that would be present in a 'hard' brexit ?

    You may ask the same about many other industries as well.
    We really need to leave on as soft a Norway, CM, SM trade as possible. Leaving without a deal is obviously bad and staying in leads to a choice of Corbyn or Farage for next PM (The strong remain/Lib Dem vote is too concentrated under FPTP I fear and they're not the Dominic Grieve/David Laws party now anyway). I really do think any form of leaving at all spikes Farage's guns.
    I agree. Offer a referendum to choose between the Norway model and hard Brexit. It's not betrayal and Norway would win easily imo.
    I'd agree with that, too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    kinabalu said:

    Dylan - so many great lyrics it is hard to select any one over the other. I bet Theresa May was tempted by a few during the state visit. "You got a lot of nerve, to say you are my friend".

    Yes. Looks like we are "stuck inside of No Deal with the (Tory) members views again".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I suppose Ford shedding 5000 jobs in Germany and closing a plant there is due to Brexit as well? And VW? And Daimler? All with job losses announced in Germany so far this year?
    It is so obvious that the reasons for the job losses are a mix of Brexit and other changes to the economy, yet the narrative for the black and white world of modern politics has to be that it is either/or not both together.

    This is becoming the end of the enlightenment, reason and reality does not matter, it is all about emotion to validate the religious belief system.
    Could not agree more. Lord alone knows what the reaction would be if we had an actual recession. Not pleasant I would wager.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2019
    Fenman said:

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
    Safer
    Ford may have closed anyway, but without Brexit other inward investors would have created other manufacturing jobs in the same region.
    That’s not what has been happening at all; why the hell do you think most former industrial areas voted to leave? The European development funds we pay into have been used to build roads to new factories in Eastern Europe.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,921
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    matt said:

    Roger said:

    The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

    'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

    ......singing about German bombers....'

    Well there's a surprise!


    You have the option of not listening.

    You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.
    I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.
    D Day was a materpiece of logistics, meticulous planning and co-ordinated action.

    So nothing in common with Brexit...

    I am looking forward to 5Live's effusive coverage of Operation Bagration on June 23rd, an even more decisive battle.

    One of my favourite WW2 stories concerned German troops at Monte Casino who had been living on rats but counter attacked the US trenches taking control of sections. They found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. And surrendered.
    IMHO, once you get the logistics right, you're already half way towards winning.

    One ex-US officer put it to me "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics."
    General Barrow of the USMC is credited with that in 1990 but I think it has been the key to the US military since the days of General Grant.
    We should also remember this; 'Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.' (SunTzu)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    In a world of no shit Sherlock, saying that the UK 'may fail to mount an operation like' Overlord/Neptune nowadays probably wins today's prize. I doubt a Dieppe is even within our capabilities...

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1136418713673097216

    That’s a blow for Dominic Raab’s Brexit plan.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    brendan16 said:

    “Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.”

    English footie fans making comments about the war and the Germans before big games has been going on for decades.

    It’s nothing new nor a ‘sign of the times’!

    But even more prevalent than previously and shows the calibre of the morons.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Oz getting a spanking from the Windies - 79-5
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    TGOHF said:

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I can guarantee that no Scottish car plants will be impacted by Brexit malc.

    No they are all kept in South East to keep the troughers in jobs.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.
    It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

    While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.
    How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

    In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?
    How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?
    The Prime Minister cannot stop MPs attending Parliament if the Speaker agrees to recall them. The quorum is only 40. What will the PM do? Arrest them?
    The wilder Leavers have visions of Boris Johnson riding the no deal Brexit bomb like Doctor Strangelove.
    Actually it's remainers who are talking up this possibility.
    It's Conservative MPs trying to persuade their unhinged colleagues and members to make them PM who are talking about this possibility.

    How on Earth does that become "remainers"?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    malcolmg said:

    brendan16 said:

    “Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.”

    English footie fans making comments about the war and the Germans before big games has been going on for decades.

    It’s nothing new nor a ‘sign of the times’!

    But even more prevalent than previously and shows the calibre of the morons.
    My favourite chant by England fans in recent years was at Park Head in November 2014:

    You all voted no,
    You all voted no,
    You can't live without us,
    You all voted no.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    In a world of no shit Sherlock, saying that the UK 'may fail to mount an operation like' Overlord/Neptune nowadays probably wins today's prize. I doubt a Dieppe is even within our capabilities...

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1136418713673097216

    Even renting a ferry is beyond them
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.
    It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

    While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.
    How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

    In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?
    How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?
    The Prime Minister cannot stop MPs attending Parliament if the Speaker agrees to recall them. The quorum is only 40. What will the PM do? Arrest them?
    The wilder Leavers have visions of Boris Johnson riding the no deal Brexit bomb like Doctor Strangelove.
    Actually it's remainers who are talking up this possibility.
    It's Conservative MPs trying to persuade their unhinged colleagues and members to make them PM who are talking about this possibility.

    How on Earth does that become "remainers"?
    I assume @eek is a remainer. I apologise if I've got this wrong.

    But yes, the Tories talking this as a realistic option are deluded too.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Cicero said:


    The would be safer. Personally the sneering tone from pro-Brexit armchair economists is exactly why support for Brexit is fading away like snow on a hot day.

    It is not that Brexit brings the Night army to Bridgend. It is the incremental economic decisions that erode our investment and undermine our global competitiveness, and that is exactly what is happening.

    Several Tories think that if they don't enact Brexit they will be obliterated. In fact it is if they DO enact it, against the growing majority who oppose Brexit that will obliterate them.

    The truth is we won't know until we leave what it's going to be like outside the EU without a WA. Plenty of organisations (CBI, Bank of England to name but two) fear it will be very bad and it may be but the reputation of "experts" is so bad a significant minority either don't care or don't believe it (or in many cases both).

    IF the experts have it right this time, the support for seeking to re-join the EU will develop rapidly but the problem is for those who might like us to integrate further (Euro, Schengen etc), a significantly larger group would simply prefer to go back to 23/6/16 and pretend the last three years hadn't happened. I'm not convinced you can put that genie back in that bottle.

    There's also the problem of what happens if leaving the EU without a WA doesn't turn out that bad (or its effects can be masked by a general global downturn). The "No Deal" supporters will feel vindicated if life goes on without much in the way of disruption or dislocation. It would cause problems for the EU if other countries see leaving as not terribly difficult or painful.

    Boris, were he to become PM, will no doubt try to play both ends against the middle for the benefit of his own political self-preservation. He's another "populist" who will say whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear - his strength is in determining which message will work for which group. His weakness is consistency.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Agreed. And I find the use of the word poverty in the UK offensive. Relative poverty is simply not poverty. It is inequality, which should still be challenged and balanced with far far greater equality of opportunity than we have in the current system, but it is not poverty.

    The 14 million who are apparently in poverty in the UK would typically be in the top 20% wealthiest globally.

    We could restrict the word to its absolute meaning of hungry and homeless. That's a fair point.

    But the relative measure is important. People in the developed world tend to judge their circumstances against others in the developed world, not against those in 'shit holes' (copyright Donald Trump).

    For example, consider the rationale behind linking pensions over time to average earnings not just to inflation. Why do we do this? We do it because we recognize that if the link is to inflation only, pensioners will be protected ONLY against absolute 'poverty' and not against relative 'poverty'.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 416
    dixiedean said:



    I suppose Ford shedding 5000 jobs in Germany and closing a plant there is due to Brexit as well? And VW? And Daimler? All with job losses announced in Germany so far this year?

    It is so obvious that the reasons for the job losses are a mix of Brexit and other changes to the economy, yet the narrative for the black and white world of modern politics has to be that it is either/or not both together.

    This is becoming the end of the enlightenment, reason and reality does not matter, it is all about emotion to validate the religious belief system.
    Could not agree more. Lord alone knows what the reaction would be if we had an actual recession. Not pleasant I would wager.
    There's always a lot of baksheesh and horse trading about where to put factories within the EU. But aside from tax breaks and matched investment, economics trumps everything:

    - we are going through a painful ICE to EV transition. The UK is well-placed to take advantage of this transition incidentally

    - pay and skills is always a massive factor in car manufacturing, and the UK is just not very competitive because of its lousy investment in education (long-term and pre-dates Brexit, and may change with increased apprenticeships) and workers from the newer EU states are cheaper

    - however you measure it (gross margin, EBIT, EBITDA, etc.) car manufacturers have a profit margin after cyclical investment around 5-6%. WTO tariffs on parts are 10%. Leaving the EU on WTO kills profitability. Faced with Schroedinger's Brexit, the auto industry *has* to prepare for the worst, i.e. no deal. They have to move their manufacturing to survive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    tlg86 said:

    My favourite chant by England fans in recent years was at Park Head in November 2014:

    You all voted no,
    You all voted no,
    You can't live without us,
    You all voted no.

    To what tune?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    dixiedean said:

    Yes. Looks like we are "stuck inside of No Deal with the (Tory) members views again".

    :smile:

    Better stop or I could go on all day. Love Bob.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I can guarantee that no Scottish car plants will be impacted by Brexit malc.

    No they are all kept in South East to keep the troughers in jobs.
    Ahem - Nissan is not in the3 South -East.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I can guarantee that no Scottish car plants will be impacted by Brexit malc.

    No they are all kept in South East to keep the troughers in jobs.
    Ahem - Nissan is not in the3 South -East.
    Well Sunderland is south and east of Ayr I suppose...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    brendan16 said:

    “Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.”

    English footie fans making comments about the war and the Germans before big games has been going on for decades.

    It’s nothing new nor a ‘sign of the times’!

    But even more prevalent than previously and shows the calibre of the morons.
    My favourite chant by England fans in recent years was at Park Head in November 2014:

    You all voted no,
    You all voted no,
    You can't live without us,
    You all voted no.
    As a Pommie expat living in Australia when they had their 1999 Republic referendum, I went to an Aus v Eng ODI just after Australia had again retained the Ashes.

    Aussie fans were chanting "We own the Ashes"
    English 'Barmy Army' fans were chanting in reply "We own your country".
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    kinabalu said:

    Agreed. And I find the use of the word poverty in the UK offensive. Relative poverty is simply not poverty. It is inequality, which should still be challenged and balanced with far far greater equality of opportunity than we have in the current system, but it is not poverty.

    The 14 million who are apparently in poverty in the UK would typically be in the top 20% wealthiest globally.

    We could restrict the word to its absolute meaning of hungry and homeless. That's a fair point.

    But the relative measure is important. People in the developed world tend to judge their circumstances against others in the developed world, not against those in 'shit holes' (copyright Donald Trump).

    For example, consider the rationale behind linking pensions over time to average earnings not just to inflation. Why do we do this? We do it because we recognize that if the link is to inflation only, pensioners will be protected ONLY against absolute 'poverty' and not against relative 'poverty'.
    Inequality is one of the biggest issues in our society and I fully support it being tackled (mostly through greater equality of opportunity with some more govt redistibution) but it is simply not poverty.

    What is the difference between relative poverty and inequality? It has a perfectably clear name, inequality, why the desire to use the suffering of people in real poverty across the world to exaggerate what inequality is by calling it poverty. I find it offensive.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    My favourite chant by England fans in recent years was at Park Head in November 2014:

    You all voted no,
    You all voted no,
    You can't live without us,
    You all voted no.

    To what tune?
    Sloop John B - It has a monopoly on football chants these days.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    My favourite chant by England fans in recent years was at Park Head in November 2014:

    You all voted no,
    You all voted no,
    You can't live without us,
    You all voted no.

    To what tune?
    Sloop John B - It has a monopoly on football chants these days.
    Yes, it's just a horrible feature of football these days. Just an inane, oversung tune. Shame.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48543313

    Former SNP MP Natalie McGarry has been jailed for 18 months for embezzling money from pro-independence groups.

    McGarry admitted embezzling more than £25,600 - including donations intended for a foodbank.

    This included £21,000 from Women for Independence (WFI), when she was treasurer of the organisation, and the SNP's Glasgow Regional Association.

    Her spending included rent, a holiday to Spain, transfers of money to her husband and other lifestyle costs.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited June 2019
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.
    It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

    While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.
    How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

    In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?
    How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?
    The Prime Minister cannot stop MPs attending Parliament if the Speaker agrees to recall them. The quorum is only 40. What will the PM do? Arrest them?
    The wilder Leavers have visions of Boris Johnson riding the no deal Brexit bomb like Doctor Strangelove.
    Actually it's remainers who are talking up this possibility.
    It's Conservative MPs trying to persuade their unhinged colleagues and members to make them PM who are talking about this possibility.

    How on Earth does that become "remainers"?
    I assume @eek is a remainer. I apologise if I've got this wrong.

    But yes, the Tories talking this as a realistic option are deluded too.
    Well I wasn't to begin with however Brexit is a failed project and as with any failed project we should to go back to the beginning, identify what lessons have been learnt and then decide whether to restart the project or remain as we were...

    What we really shouldn't be doing is letting a bunch of failed politicians (and all candidates except those remaining in the cabinet have failed) continue this disaster version...

    And as for talking it up - I'm not Raab and McVey are alongside Leadsom.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Um, am I the only one who has absolutely no idea who that person is or what he's done to raise the ire of Mr Dunt? :blush:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Cicero said:

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
    The would be safer. Personally the sneering tone from pro-Brexit armchair economists is exactly why support for Brexit is fading away like snow on a hot day.

    It is not that Brexit brings the Night army to Bridgend. It is the incremental economic decisions that erode our investment and undermine our global competitiveness, and that is exactly what is happening.

    Several Tories think that if they don't enact Brexit they will be obliterated. In fact it is if they DO enact it, against the growing majority who oppose Brexit that will obliterate them.
    Another stupid Remainer myth. There is no 'growing majority' who oppose Brexit.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I suppose Ford shedding 5000 jobs in Germany and closing a plant there is due to Brexit as well? And VW? And Daimler? All with job losses announced in Germany so far this year?
    It is so obvious that the reasons for the job losses are a mix of Brexit and other changes to the economy, yet the narrative for the black and white world of modern politics has to be that it is either/or not both together.

    This is becoming the end of the enlightenment, reason and reality does not matter, it is all about emotion to validate the religious belief system.
    Well support for the EU is certainly more akin to religious fanaticism than logic.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181

    Cicero said:

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
    The would be safer. Personally the sneering tone from pro-Brexit armchair economists is exactly why support for Brexit is fading away like snow on a hot day.

    It is not that Brexit brings the Night army to Bridgend. It is the incremental economic decisions that erode our investment and undermine our global competitiveness, and that is exactly what is happening.

    Several Tories think that if they don't enact Brexit they will be obliterated. In fact it is if they DO enact it, against the growing majority who oppose Brexit that will obliterate them.
    Another stupid Remainer myth. There is no 'growing majority' who oppose Brexit.
    a wish is not a claim on reality... If you are so certain, why not support a PV?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Cicero said:

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    And if we had voted to remain, those jobs would be safe? Get real.
    The would be safer. Personally the sneering tone from pro-Brexit armchair economists is exactly why support for Brexit is fading away like snow on a hot day.

    It is not that Brexit brings the Night army to Bridgend. It is the incremental economic decisions that erode our investment and undermine our global competitiveness, and that is exactly what is happening.

    Several Tories think that if they don't enact Brexit they will be obliterated. In fact it is if they DO enact it, against the growing majority who oppose Brexit that will obliterate them.
    Another stupid Remainer myth. There is no 'growing majority' who oppose Brexit.
    There is. It’s quite literally made up of people growing up and reaching voting age.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    My favourite chant by England fans in recent years was at Park Head in November 2014:

    You all voted no,
    You all voted no,
    You can't live without us,
    You all voted no.

    To what tune?
    Sloop John B - It has a monopoly on football chants these days.
    Drinking all night
    Got into a fight
    Well I feel so broke up
    I want to go home
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    GIN1138 said:

    Um, am I the only one who has absolutely no idea who that person is or what he's done to raise the ire of Mr Dunt? :blush:
    If you don't think pouring a pint of spume isn't reason enough...

    It's Etiolated Eric, one of Trump's sprogs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    148grss said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

    The usual suspects were out last night on here.

    The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.
    "Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.
    The impenetrable wall.

    Car company commits to staying in post Brexit UK: ha ha, there you go, they know it'll be brilliant!

    Car company closes plant in the UK: ha ha, nothing to do with Brexit, they were going to do it anyway!

    Car company boss says closure was not due to Brexit: ha ha, there you go, he's an expert, he should know what he's talking about!

    Car company boss says closure was due to Brexit: ha ha, he's just using it as an excuse for wider problems!

    etc.
    I suppose Ford shedding 5000 jobs in Germany and closing a plant there is due to Brexit as well? And VW? And Daimler? All with job losses announced in Germany so far this year?
    It is so obvious that the reasons for the job losses are a mix of Brexit and other changes to the economy, yet the narrative for the black and white world of modern politics has to be that it is either/or not both together.

    This is becoming the end of the enlightenment, reason and reality does not matter, it is all about emotion to validate the religious belief system.
    Well support for the EU is certainly more akin to religious fanaticism than logic.
    EU supporters are perhaps around 10% of the population, about 40% are people who think on balance, EU membership has flaws but is better than the alternatives, and particularly better than no deal. It is leavers failure to work with this group, along with their internal divisions that has resulted in no brexit.

    Yet again no acceptance that the leave side can be wrong, your only interest is to muddy the waters by finding faults on the remain side. Of course those exist, my post criticises both sides equally, but until people on both sides of the debate accept the problems around their position, rather than pointing out the problems with the opposite position, the UK will not get anywhere bar paralysis and division, which none of us want (apart from Putin).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited June 2019

    Inequality is one of the biggest issues in our society and I fully support it being tackled (mostly through greater equality of opportunity with some more govt redistibution) but it is simply not poverty.

    What is the difference between relative poverty and inequality? It has a perfectably clear name, inequality, why the desire to use the suffering of people in real poverty across the world to exaggerate what inequality is by calling it poverty. I find it offensive.

    I agree that relative poverty should not be called poverty. It needs its full handle of RELATIVE poverty. If you use the word 'poverty' in isolation, the single word, it implies you mean absolute poverty. So if you just say 'poverty' when you mean 'relative poverty' this is misleading. Do I find the misuse offensive? Not really. But it is a misuse.

    Relative poverty is the same as inequality? Yes and No. In essence it is, but 'relative poverty' works better in the language than 'inequality' in certain constructions.

    For example, "Many millions of Britons are living in relative poverty."

    That works well. It's clear. We know what it means.

    As opposed to, "Many millions of Britons are living in inequality."

    That does not work. One would have to rephrase as -

    "Britain is a highly unequal society."

    Which is fine. (Well it's not fine, but the phrase is).

    So we need both terms, 'relative poverty' and 'inequality'.

    They both serve a purpose. They are the same but different.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Raab really is a thickie, and he's supposed to be one of the smarter ones...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Peterborough prediction: the only way Brexit Party don't win is if the Tories put in a surprisingly strong showing. Given they will have been working this seat for months ahead of the recall petition and the recall petition itself as a potential gain, I suspect they will deliver on the upside....

    Four parties in the twenties? Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber '92 anyone?

    My prediction

    Brexit Party 35%, LDs 20%, Labour 18%, Tories 10%, Greens 5%, UKIP 1%, CUK 1%
    Er… who's getting the other 10% ?
    There are about 20 candidates standing so the remaining 13
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    My car insurance renewal was down by a tenner from last year. Another friend on Facebook has reported the same - Is the true aggregate price coming down, and so a negative effect on inflation incoming ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Agreed. And I find the use of the word poverty in the UK offensive. Relative poverty is simply not poverty. It is inequality, which should still be challenged and balanced with far far greater equality of opportunity than we have in the current system, but it is not poverty.

    The 14 million who are apparently in poverty in the UK would typically be in the top 20% wealthiest globally.

    We could restrict the word to its absolute meaning of hungry and homeless. That's a fair point.

    But the relative measure is important. People in the developed world tend to judge their circumstances against others in the developed world, not against those in 'shit holes' (copyright Donald Trump).

    For example, consider the rationale behind linking pensions over time to average earnings not just to inflation. Why do we do this? We do it because we recognize that if the link is to inflation only, pensioners will be protected ONLY against absolute 'poverty' and not against relative 'poverty'.
    No it has nothing to do with poverty. It is to keep the retired in line with earnings because that is their income.

    Relative may be important for equality purposes but it is meaningless garbage when you make international comparisons like this unless you use the same relative baseline.

    Who is more in poverty: A Brit on 59% of British median income, or a Romanian on 61% of Romanian median income?

    If a Romanian living in Romania on 61% of median income moves to the UK and gets a job at 59% of British median income will their have fallen into poverty?

    If a Brit living in Britain on 59% of British median income moves to Romania and gets a job at 61% of Romanian median income will they have escaped a life of poverty?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    That this should even need saying is a measure of how barmy and un-Conservative so many Tories have become.

    Proroguing Parliament indeed. This is the action of dictators not Democrats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2019

    In a world of no shit Sherlock, saying that the UK 'may fail to mount an operation like' Overlord/Neptune nowadays probably wins today's prize. I doubt a Dieppe is even within our capabilities...

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1136418713673097216

    Any such operation would only be conducted through NATO or the UN anyway for which our forces already train as combined units with other nations
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Can I just blow my own trumpet here, because I think I was the first person to spot this looming problem, and I was derided for my pains.

    I know it's gauche, but what the hell.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Pulpstar said:

    My car insurance renewal was down by a tenner from last year. Another friend on Facebook has reported the same - Is the true aggregate price coming down, and so a negative effect on inflation incoming ?

    I knocked a lot off my dad'd insurance this year, which surprised me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2019
    May considering the Merkel route as her successors are not up to the job she has to unresign? Perhaps she will put her Withdrawal Agreement through again to ensure her successor cannot pursue No Deal and risk losing a VONC?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48543313

    Former SNP MP Natalie McGarry has been jailed for 18 months for embezzling money from pro-independence groups.

    McGarry admitted embezzling more than £25,600 - including donations intended for a foodbank.

    This included £21,000 from Women for Independence (WFI), when she was treasurer of the organisation, and the SNP's Glasgow Regional Association.

    Her spending included rent, a holiday to Spain, transfers of money to her husband and other lifestyle costs.

    Sleazy SNP caught in the act for once.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    kinabalu said:

    Inequality is one of the biggest issues in our society and I fully support it being tackled (mostly through greater equality of opportunity with some more govt redistibution) but it is simply not poverty.

    What is the difference between relative poverty and inequality? It has a perfectably clear name, inequality, why the desire to use the suffering of people in real poverty across the world to exaggerate what inequality is by calling it poverty. I find it offensive.

    I agree that relative poverty should not be called poverty. It needs its full handle of RELATIVE poverty. If you use the word 'poverty' in isolation, the single word, it implies you mean absolute poverty. So if you just say 'poverty' when you mean 'relative poverty' this is misleading. Do I find the misuse offensive? Not really. But it is a misuse.

    Relative poverty is the same as inequality? Yes and No. In essence it is, but 'relative poverty' works better in the language than 'inequality' in certain constructions.

    For example, "Many millions of Britons are living in relative poverty."

    That works well. It's clear. We know what it means.

    As opposed to, "Many millions of Britons are living in inequality."

    That does not work. One would have to rephrase as -

    "Britain is a highly unequal society."

    Which is fine. (Well it's not fine, but the phrase is).

    So we need both terms, 'relative poverty' and 'inequality'.

    They both serve a purpose. They are the same but different.
    If you ask people on $1 a day whether someone with not just food and shelter, but free health care and a state pension worth several hundred thousand dollars all guaranteed are in poverty they would certainly find it bizarre and many would find it offensive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My car insurance renewal was down by a tenner from last year. Another friend on Facebook has reported the same - Is the true aggregate price coming down, and so a negative effect on inflation incoming ?

    I knocked a lot off my dad'd insurance this year, which surprised me.
    £190 ! Cheapest in years.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    brendan16 said:

    “Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.”

    English footie fans making comments about the war and the Germans before big games has been going on for decades.

    It’s nothing new nor a ‘sign of the times’!

    But even more prevalent than previously and shows the calibre of the morons.
    My favourite chant by England fans in recent years was at Park Head in November 2014:

    You all voted no,
    You all voted no,
    You can't live without us,
    You all voted no.
    A familiar tune to the plastic paddies at that venue - "Why don't you go home, the famine is over, why don't you go home" was popular for a while until some had a sense of humour failure about it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Can I just blow my own trumpet here, because I think I was the first person to spot this looming problem, and I was derided for my pains.

    I know it's gauche, but what the hell.
    Oh God. Is this her latest plan to go on and on and on and...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My car insurance renewal was down by a tenner from last year. Another friend on Facebook has reported the same - Is the true aggregate price coming down, and so a negative effect on inflation incoming ?

    I knocked a lot off my dad'd insurance this year, which surprised me.
    £190 ! Cheapest in years.
    Who was your insurer, Direct Line nearly doubled my insurance.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    May considering the Merkel route as her successors are not up to the job she has to unresign? Perhaps she will put her Withdrawal Agreement through again to ensure her successor cannot pursue No Deal and risk losing a VONC?
    If May doesn't resign she risks losing a VONC.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My car insurance renewal was down by a tenner from last year. Another friend on Facebook has reported the same - Is the true aggregate price coming down, and so a negative effect on inflation incoming ?

    I knocked a lot off my dad'd insurance this year, which surprised me.
    £190 ! Cheapest in years.
    Who was your insurer, Direct Line nearly doubled my insurance.
    Tesco
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    GIN1138 said:

    Um, am I the only one who has absolutely no idea who that person is or what he's done to raise the ire of Mr Dunt? :blush:
    If you don't think pouring a pint of spume isn't reason enough...

    It's Etiolated Eric, one of Trump's sprogs.
    Oh!!!!! :D
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    HYUFD said:

    May considering the Merkel route as her successors are not up to the job she has to unresign? Perhaps she will put her Withdrawal Agreement through again to ensure her successor cannot pursue No Deal and risk losing a VONC?
    If May doesn't resign she risks losing a VONC.
    Only if Labour call one, but if both the Tories and Labour would get wiped out in an election, why not just let May carry on as the PM without a party?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    May could still be PM by October if Boris or Raab wins.

    Is there a book on when she actually leaves Downing Street?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My car insurance renewal was down by a tenner from last year. Another friend on Facebook has reported the same - Is the true aggregate price coming down, and so a negative effect on inflation incoming ?

    I knocked a lot off my dad'd insurance this year, which surprised me.
    £190 ! Cheapest in years.
    Who was your insurer, Direct Line nearly doubled my insurance.
    Tesco
    Mine with the Co-op is only going up a few £ from last year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    May's spokesman has said she will not resign unless she can tell the Queen that the successor is likely to command confidence.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    May could stay on as PM while new Con leader has a general election?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    No it has nothing to do with poverty. It is to keep the retired in line with earnings because that is their income.

    Relative may be important for equality purposes but it is meaningless garbage when you make international comparisons like this unless you use the same relative baseline.

    1. Who is more in poverty: A Brit on 59% of British median income, or a Romanian on 61% of Romanian median income?

    2. If a Romanian living in Romania on 61% of median income moves to the UK and gets a job at 59% of British median income will their have fallen into poverty?

    3. If a Brit living in Britain on 59% of British median income moves to Romania and gets a job at 61% of Romanian median income will they have escaped a life of poverty?

    There is an important distinction between relative poverty and absolute poverty.

    So, your examples -

    1. The Brit is (marginally) more in relative poverty but is (greatly) less in absolute poverty than the Romanian.

    2. No. To say that that Romanian has 'fallen into poverty' would be wildly inaccurate. They have fallen (marginally) more into relative poverty but have moved (greatly) out of absolute poverty.

    3. No. To say that that Brit has 'escaped a life of poverty' would be way off beam. They have (very marginally) reduced their level of relative poverty but have (massively) increased their level of absolute poverty.

    The link to earnings for pensioners is so that they do not -

    (a) Fall behind the rest of the population.
    (b) Struggle to afford a lot of what the working population can afford.
    (c) Fall into RELATIVE POVERTY.

    All of the above are correct and fine and accurate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    For constitutional history buffs this year could turn out to be a once in a lifetime show.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846


    EU supporters are perhaps around 10% of the population, about 40% are people who think on balance, EU membership has flaws but is better than the alternatives, and particularly better than no deal. It is leavers failure to work with this group, along with their internal divisions that has resulted in no brexit.

    Yet again no acceptance that the leave side can be wrong, your only interest is to muddy the waters by finding faults on the remain side. Of course those exist, my post criticises both sides equally, but until people on both sides of the debate accept the problems around their position, rather than pointing out the problems with the opposite position, the UK will not get anywhere bar paralysis and division, which none of us want (apart from Putin).

    Wrong again. I have advocated listening to and working with Remain voters since before the referendum. I have written OPs on here about how Brexit needs to be framed to take into account the large Remain vote.

    Unfortunately such comments run into the likes of Meeks who believes that no compromise is possible with Leavers until they admit they are all xenophobes and racists.
This discussion has been closed.