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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Polling round-up. Euros, cra

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Polling round-up. Euros, crazy polls, Tory leadership and Peterborough

On this week’s Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a look at the numbers on a host of recent political events.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,649
    Is a Labour win in Peterborough the best result for the Tories?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,520
    First, like the BP. Sadly not the Conservatives.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314

    Is a Labour win in Peterborough the best result for the Tories?

    Yes.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,437
    third like LDs?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,040
    JohnO said:

    First, like the BP. Sadly not the Conservatives.

    Don't worry, true Conservatives vote Brexit Party thesedays, or so the majority of its voters and probably members seem to think, so it is all good.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,348
    I've got a sneaking suspicion that regardless of who comes first the under-stated story of the night will be a poor LD performance, coming well behind the Tories. We'll see, but the party surely hasn't been throwing massive resource at the seat and while they can't help but pick up some of the 40% of remainers there I wouldn't be surprised if it was 10% or so instead of the 20-25% that some are predicting.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,331
    It'll be funny if UKIP get more votes than a potential Labour majority over the Brexit Party.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,251
    CON haven't won Peterborough
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,464
    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Tories hoping for a Labour win.
    Labour praying that the Tory vote doesn't totally crater in order to help them win.
    Strange days indeed. Most peculiar Mama.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392
    edited June 6
    These Labour win rumours have allowed me to green out of my I'll advised bet.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392
    AndyJS said:

    It'll be funny if UKIP get more votes than a potential Labour majority over the Brexit Party.

    Best result.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,331
    edited June 6
    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    One to watch kids!

    Sharron White. Future major pol imho. London Mayor? There's a Midlands mayor who used to run John Lewis:


  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 769
    Basically twitter's job in these circumstances is to publish a load of bull which entertains everyone just long enough to get to the actual result, right?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,464
    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Market seems unchanging on Peterborough, mind you if you blindly backed v strong favourites you'd have been Sco Moed in Oz recently.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    Peterborough voted Labour - what a bunch of losers.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,464

    Basically twitter's job in these circumstances is to publish a load of bull which entertains everyone just long enough to get to the actual result, right?

    Brilliant post ! You’ve hit the nail on the head .
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,088

    One to watch kids!

    Sharron White. Future major pol imho. London Mayor? There's a Midlands mayor who used to run John Lewis:


    Never mind Woodford. A former head of Ofcom in charge of John Lewis? Oh dear. I do hope this is not like putting Andy Hornby in charge of a bank.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,040
    TGOHF said:
    How will the non-Corbynites somehow criticise him if there is victory?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,492
    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    My sources tell me someone has won and someone has lost.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 1,471
    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Even though the Lab candidate is dire, I would enjoy the failure of the Farage brigade in the type of seat they need to win.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,437

    My sources tell me someone has won and someone has lost.

    FAKE NEWS :lol:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    Whose the Labour MP on QT - she’s making Diane Abbott look like a skilled operator.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,206
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:
    How will the non-Corbynites somehow criticise him if there is victory?
    "It would've happened anyway" seems quite a popular line at the moment.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,348

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Even though the Lab candidate is dire, I would enjoy the failure of the Farage brigade in the type of seat they need to win.
    Personally I'm a bit Alien vs Predator on this one. Whoever wins, I feel the country loses.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,040

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Even though the Lab candidate is dire, I would enjoy the failure of the Farage brigade in the type of seat they need to win.
    Great. Another anti-semite joins the commons.

    Incredible to believe on 75th D Day anniversary Peterborough might elect a jew hater.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767
    TGOHF said:
    We'll see. It is not unlikely but when the other side is a group of novices who have no idea how counts work, with postal votes being sent in the warm glow of the Euros, nothing would surprise me. Not even tonight's podcast being overtaken by events.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    The Peterborough election is a nightmare for the voters. No decent, realistic choices. If Labour has won, President Trump may well have played a very big part.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:
    So either Labour are very confident, or it's very close, or they think the Brexit Party may have just done it.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,002
    Quincel said:

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Even though the Lab candidate is dire, I would enjoy the failure of the Farage brigade in the type of seat they need to win.
    Personally I'm a bit Alien vs Predator on this one. Whoever wins, I feel the country loses.
    Yes. If only Change UK had stood a candidate.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,348

    Quincel said:

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Even though the Lab candidate is dire, I would enjoy the failure of the Farage brigade in the type of seat they need to win.
    Personally I'm a bit Alien vs Predator on this one. Whoever wins, I feel the country loses.
    Yes. If only Change UK had stood a candidate.
    Renew weren't too far from holding their deposit in Newport. One of the lesser victims of the LD revival, I imagine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,333
    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Given even on current polling Labour should hold it it would not be that much of a shock, at the moment it looks neck and neck
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,333
    Quincel said:

    I've got a sneaking suspicion that regardless of who comes first the under-stated story of the night will be a poor LD performance, coming well behind the Tories. We'll see, but the party surely hasn't been throwing massive resource at the seat and while they can't help but pick up some of the 40% of remainers there I wouldn't be surprised if it was 10% or so instead of the 20-25% that some are predicting.

    If the Brexit Party narrowly win ahead of Labour and the LDs come behind the Tories in 4th that will boost Labour MPs from Leave seats in blocking EUref2 certainly
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Given even on current polling Labour should hold it it would not be that much of a shock, at the moment it looks neck and neck
    I think it all depends on the Conservative vote. If it collapses, it will mostly go to the The Brexit Party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger; you don't give out the 'very confident' line to a journalist unless you are indeed 'very confident'.
    My own hunch on the 2017 and demographics always gave me an impression Labour was a very live dog in this fight, and the Tories have probably held onto enough vote to enough vote - with also the north of Peterborough (Which this is) being favourable enough to Labour that they've won. So it's a Labour hold which kills Farage's momentum right up till November when he regains it. But no won by-election for him.

    This'll either look terrible or like Nostradamus in a few hours.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,040
    Anyway, I think I'll save the excitement for another day. I look forward to how good the platitudes used by the winner will be, and how grandiose they get with extrapolation, whether that is assuming a BXP landslide, or that Corbynism is sweeping the nation.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,731
    Basically no one knows what the **** is happening in Peterborough at the moment! :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,040
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger;.
    Wouldn't they still be verifying at this point, not placing them in piles yet? It's done face up at parliamentaries I believe, so you get more info, but not piles?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 1,471
    Quincel said:

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Even though the Lab candidate is dire, I would enjoy the failure of the Farage brigade in the type of seat they need to win.
    Personally I'm a bit Alien vs Predator on this one. Whoever wins, I feel the country loses.
    It is an appalling choice for the voters to be faced with.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,040
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Given even on current polling Labour should hold it it would not be that much of a shock, at the moment it looks neck and neck
    I think it all depends on the Conservative vote. If it collapses, it will mostly go to the The Brexit Party.
    Not a question of if it collapses, but how much it does. Will they be closer to 10 than 20?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:
    Hmm...sounds fake. Have they even started counting yet? Can't imagine they've finished verification.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,520
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger;.
    Wouldn't they still be verifying at this point, not placing them in piles yet? It's done face up at parliamentaries I believe, so you get more info, but not piles?
    My thought exactly. They won't be counting yet....but seasoned observers will have a pretty good idea of what's happening.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    GIN1138 said:

    Basically no one knows what the **** is happening in Peterborough at the moment! :D

    Which Labour source is giving the Peterborough Telegraph the "very confident" line then. I had a small top up off the back of that one.
    Labour's expectations management has always been really shit hot at by-elections ! Well it was before tonight.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:
    Who is aarayekay? Any relation of Peter?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415


    :lol: Could be another fence sitter Jezza f**k-up.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767
    Quincel said:

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Even though the Lab candidate is dire, I would enjoy the failure of the Farage brigade in the type of seat they need to win.
    Personally I'm a bit Alien vs Predator on this one. Whoever wins, I feel the country loses.
    The result will tell us if Theresa May's (sort of) resignation has mitigated the Tory protest vote, and will also give us a lead on whether the Euros are a reliable guide to Westminster elections or were treated by voters as a de facto referendum. To that extent, it might make a snap general election more or less likely (if Labour or TBP win respectively).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    JohnO said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger;.
    Wouldn't they still be verifying at this point, not placing them in piles yet? It's done face up at parliamentaries I believe, so you get more info, but not piles?
    My thought exactly. They won't be counting yet....but seasoned observers will have a pretty good idea of what's happening.
    Will some of this be based on wards and piles of votes for a ward? A safe Lab ward with a big pile means it probably has stayed Labour? ie. the vote turned out
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Fence sitting is probably a decent policy for a place like Peterborough in all honesty - doubt going the full remain would have improved Labour's vote here, whatever it is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,333
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who is aarayekay? Any relation of Peter?
    He is followed by Natalie Bennett so maybe Green Party connected?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Big movement in for the Brexit Party.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    Any estimates on a declaration?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392
    edited June 6

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    A thus they went to drawing lots.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who is aarayekay? Any relation of Peter?
    He is followed by Natalie Bennett so maybe Green Party connected?
    Natalie Bennett follows me and I've never had anything to do with the Greens other than voting for them in the 2015 GE :D
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 324
    Are all these random tweets from various directions just a means of manipulating the odds?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,206

    JohnO said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger;.
    Wouldn't they still be verifying at this point, not placing them in piles yet? It's done face up at parliamentaries I believe, so you get more info, but not piles?
    My thought exactly. They won't be counting yet....but seasoned observers will have a pretty good idea of what's happening.
    Will some of this be based on wards and piles of votes for a ward? A safe Lab ward with a big pile means it probably has stayed Labour? ie. the vote turned out
    They should be able to estimate percentages for a given ward during verification if they are organised.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Brexit Party heads out to 1.3 again..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    TGOHF said:

    Any estimates on a declaration?

    Just after I have gone to bed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    houndtang said:

    Are all these random tweets from various directions just a means of manipulating the odds?

    Doubt it, Is Andrea Leadsom's Betfair Backer at the count ?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,251
    Looking huge for LAB in Peterborough. Or maybe BXP!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,520

    JohnO said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger;.
    Wouldn't they still be verifying at this point, not placing them in piles yet? It's done face up at parliamentaries I believe, so you get more info, but not piles?
    My thought exactly. They won't be counting yet....but seasoned observers will have a pretty good idea of what's happening.
    Will some of this be based on wards and piles of votes for a ward? A safe Lab ward with a big pile means it probably has stayed Labour? ie. the vote turned out
    Yes, if you know from where the ballot box is emptied on the table then the validation process for it should give a pretty accurate idea of the votes.

    But you have to stand over and watch it because once validation has happened all the bundles of votes from all the boxes are mixed together before counting commences.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Honestly I've never seen such a contradictory set of tweets shortly after 10 o'clock in a by-election.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,206
    So turnout is high in key Labour areas but they are concerned about turnout in key areas?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Ave_it said:

    Looking huge for LAB in Peterborough. Or maybe BXP!

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger;.
    Wouldn't they still be verifying at this point, not placing them in piles yet? It's done face up at parliamentaries I believe, so you get more info, but not piles?
    My thought exactly. They won't be counting yet....but seasoned observers will have a pretty good idea of what's happening.
    Will some of this be based on wards and piles of votes for a ward? A safe Lab ward with a big pile means it probably has stayed Labour? ie. the vote turned out
    Yes, if you know from where the ballot box is emptied on the table then the validation process for it should give a pretty accurate idea of the votes.

    But you have to stand over and watch it because once validation has happened all the bundles of votes from all the boxes are mixed together before counting commences.
    Like a giant game of find the lady.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger;.
    Wouldn't they still be verifying at this point, not placing them in piles yet? It's done face up at parliamentaries I believe, so you get more info, but not piles?
    My thought exactly. They won't be counting yet....but seasoned observers will have a pretty good idea of what's happening.
    Will some of this be based on wards and piles of votes for a ward? A safe Lab ward with a big pile means it probably has stayed Labour? ie. the vote turned out
    Yes, if you know from where the ballot box is emptied on the table then the validation process for it should give a pretty accurate idea of the votes.

    But you have to stand over and watch it because once validation has happened all the bundles of votes from all the boxes are mixed together before counting commences.
    Main parties have plenty of observers at a by-election.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,492

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm...sounds fake. Have they even started counting yet? Can't imagine they've finished verification.
    Agreed - and who estimates an 8-9% lead?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,492

    Quincel said:

    nico67 said:

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour sources apparently think they might have just done enough to hold on but I’m very dubious of these tweets referring to sources .

    Far too early to call it if it's close. You can only call it this early if one party has won a massive majority.
    I agree , the rumours are flying about all over the place . High Muslim turnout and high turnout in the Park Ward. Apparently a Labour stronghold .

    Given the current climate it would be a massive shock if Labour hold on .
    Even though the Lab candidate is dire, I would enjoy the failure of the Farage brigade in the type of seat they need to win.
    Personally I'm a bit Alien vs Predator on this one. Whoever wins, I feel the country loses.
    The result will tell us if Theresa May's (sort of) resignation has mitigated the Tory protest vote, and will also give us a lead on whether the Euros are a reliable guide to Westminster elections or were treated by voters as a de facto referendum. To that extent, it might make a snap general election more or less likely (if Labour or TBP win respectively).
    I think the result will confirm pretty much what I've been saying all along.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,520

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't see how anybody can be calling the election this early in the count.

    Mixture of their sense of the mood from canvassing and seeing high turnout in areas they perceive to be strong for them?

    Still guesswork on not much evidence, but I'd think people normally hesitate on calling it for their side too early even when they are confident - more 'close, but looking positive' kind of comments instead - so interesting some at least are coming out with talk of triumph already. Perhaps I had my BXP and Lab scores the wrong way around.
    I doubt Joel Lamy is lieing, being a local Peterborough reporter he'll also be at the count. Labour bods will be able to see the papers being sorted into the various piles and perhaps noticing theirs might be a bit bigger;.
    Wouldn't they still be verifying at this point, not placing them in piles yet? It's done face up at parliamentaries I believe, so you get more info, but not piles?
    My thought exactly. They won't be counting yet....but seasoned observers will have a pretty good idea of what's happening.
    Will some of this be based on wards and piles of votes for a ward? A safe Lab ward with a big pile means it probably has stayed Labour? ie. the vote turned out
    Yes, if you know from where the ballot box is emptied on the table then the validation process for it should give a pretty accurate idea of the votes.

    But you have to stand over and watch it because once validation has happened all the bundles of votes from all the boxes are mixed together before counting commences.
    Main parties have plenty of observers at a by-election.
    Indeed, so they all should have fair idea, say in the next 30 minutes, of what's happening if the eventual result is going to be reasonably clear.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Scott_P said:
    Exactly. F**king unbelievable. But that's Labour 2019. They stand aside and watch as the socialism of fools engulfs their party.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,435
    edited June 6
    At this stage in the verification, if they’re counting face up which i expect they would be, I’d have a pretty reasonable idea about how it’s going. Samples from various polling stations. That said, will be harder for BXP to call given they don’t know quite where their support is yet, I suspect.

    As @AndyJS said, however, if it’s within 10% even averaging out samples doesn’t get you much further away from guessing.

    So these contradictory rumours suggest to me that it’s reasonably close.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Scott_P said:
    Blimey 75%?

    Let me plug that into Baxter...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Scott_P said:
    Herefordshire had one of the biggest 2015-2010 Lib Dem vote collapses so there is potential there for them. I'd have thought it too rural & leavery for the Lib Dems in a GE but perhaps not..
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,492
    Scott_P said:
    That's a pretty good result for the Lib Dems.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,500
    Peterborough is of course one of tmays ' greatest' legacies....

    Poor old stewie
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415

    Scott_P said:
    That's a pretty good result for the Lib Dems.
    Could do better. 8/10
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 965
    I'm hearing the by-election was a secret ballot.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 6

    Scott_P said:
    That's a pretty good result for the Lib Dems.
    Could do better. 8/10
    They couldn't even get 100%, pfft.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,920
    Why do people think a big turnout from the Asian part of Peterborough benefits Labour? A non-trivial amount voted Leave, so it's not a slam-dunk. Or are said areas of a different ethnicity?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Herefordshire had one of the biggest 2015-2010 Lib Dem vote collapses so there is potential there for them. I'd have thought it too rural & leavery for the Lib Dems in a GE but perhaps not..
    The old Hereford constituency was Liberal back in the day.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070

    Peterborough is of course one of tmays ' greatest' legacies....

    Poor old stewie

    I think it was probably Steward Jackson who cost himself that seat.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm...sounds fake. Have they even started counting yet? Can't imagine they've finished verification.
    Agreed - and who estimates an 8-9% lead?
    Yep. That seems rather specific.
This discussion has been closed.