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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Polling round-up. Euros, cra

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  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Has someone just backed the Conservatives?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Been to sleep for an hour and Lab into 1.4

    Recounts surely either way
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Greened up. My natural cowardice overcame me.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    It's possible UKIP will have got more votes than the Labour majority over the Brexit Party.

    Unite the far right ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    PB Tories really were way off again Lab/LD fight for 2nd.

    Yet again they have underestimated Jezza and his foot soldiers.

    Pretty sure they will be doing that as he enters Downing Street.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    PB Tories really were way off again Lab/LD fight for 2nd.

    Yet again they have underestimated Jezza and his foot soldiers.

    Pretty sure they will be doing that as he enters Downing Street.

    Yes just the formality of weighing the postal votes from the Asian wards.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Wtf were they thinking with those?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:

    It's possible UKIP will have got more votes than the Labour majority over the Brexit Party.

    Looks likely, also that a bunch of random candidates together could have swung it by leeching protest votes. Impossible to know, of course.

    Had ChangeUK run would they have taken 500 Labour Remainers? Maybe.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    AndyJS said:

    It's possible UKIP will have got more votes than the Labour majority over the Brexit Party.

    There's the SDP to consider as well.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    The final betting chart for Peterborough is going to be a classic

    I was so tempted when Lab were at 4 only an hour or so ago.

    I ignored my inner betting voice.

    Rats!!!!!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    edited June 2019
    Farage is shite at by elections isn't he!!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Wtf were they thinking with those?
    Persuading Tories, presumably
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Wtf were they thinking with those?
    Squeezing the Tory vote - they did get 45% in 2017 and the LDs and Greens only got 5 combined?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tory vote may have held up a bit better than expected.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Helen Clark

    Stewart Jackson

    Fiona Onasanya

    Lisa Forbes?

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If the BP didn’t win then surely the Tories did better than expected .
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Wtf were they thinking with those?
    Persuading Tories, presumably
    But why would it cause more Tory -> TBP than LD -> Lab? Surely the latter is a bigger pool to start with
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Farage is shite at by elections isn't he!!

    Parliamentary elections yes - UKIP did win 2 by elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Not really, https://twitter.com/benschofield/status/1136792016304660481?s=20
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Not really, https://twitter.com/benschofield/status/1136792016304660481?s=20
    Vote Con - Get Jezza! :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2019

    PB Tories really were way off again Lab/LD fight for 2nd.

    Yet again they have underestimated Jezza and his foot soldiers.

    Pretty sure they will be doing that as he enters Downing Street.

    PB Tories actually underestimated the Tories it seems, though on tonight's Yougov it would still be Farage entering Downing Street not Corbyn
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Not really, https://twitter.com/benschofield/status/1136792016304660481?s=20
    If it didn't work in converting Con->TBP, that surely makes it more of an own goal, right?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    £5K AT 1.11 FOR LABOUR
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    So are we getting a recount? Will they be double checking the postals as well re signatures etc if its very close.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Wtf were they thinking with those?
    Persuading Tories, presumably
    But why would it cause more Tory -> TBP than LD -> Lab? Surely the latter is a bigger pool to start with
    Nope.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Not sure that was an official announcemnt
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    HYUFD said:

    PB Tories really were way off again Lab/LD fight for 2nd.

    Yet again they have underestimated Jezza and his foot soldiers.

    Pretty sure they will be doing that as he enters Downing Street.

    PB Tories actually underestimated the Tories it seems, though on tonight's Yougov it would still be Farage entering Downing Street not Corbyn
    Not to gloat, but sounds like this is going exactly like I said it would...

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    brendan16 said:

    So are we getting a recount? Will they be double checking the postals as well re signatures etc if its very close.

    No, once those are verified that's it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jew hating is more popular than expected.

    Will Labour now ramp it up to try and get more votes ?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Wtf were they thinking with those?
    Persuading Tories, presumably
    But why would it cause more Tory -> TBP than LD -> Lab? Surely the latter is a bigger pool to start with
    Nope.
    So you think there's going to be more Con votes than LD?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    HYUFD said:

    PB Tories really were way off again Lab/LD fight for 2nd.

    Yet again they have underestimated Jezza and his foot soldiers.

    Pretty sure they will be doing that as he enters Downing Street.

    PB Tories actually underestimated the Tories it seems, though on tonight's Yougov it would still be Farage entering Downing Street not Corbyn
    Dream on Jezza is being underestimated again
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    £5K AT 1.11 FOR LABOUR

    It looks as if there are some big trading positions a few ticks apart on either side. It might even be automated (the dreaded bots).
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    TGOHF said:

    Jew hating is more popular than expected.

    Will Labour now ramp it up to try and get more votes ?

    It probably helps in certain places yes - sadly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:

    Jew hating is more popular than expected.

    Will Labour now ramp it up to try and get more votes ?

    It is worse than that. Jew hating is not demonstrably popular, but ignoring it, because well...meh, it aint me they have it in for, appears to be so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    PB Tories really were way off again Lab/LD fight for 2nd.

    Yet again they have underestimated Jezza and his foot soldiers.

    Pretty sure they will be doing that as he enters Downing Street.

    PB Tories actually underestimated the Tories it seems, though on tonight's Yougov it would still be Farage entering Downing Street not Corbyn
    Dream on Jezza is being underestimated again
    Nope, the Peterborough result almost exactly in line with tonight's Yougov
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    The Tory leaflet made it a two-horse race too. That's the downside of not contesting the locals :D
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Assuming the strong rumours are true and Labour have held on, my overwhelming sense is that there is bad news for basically everyone. Farage has to feel gutted he can't win a by-election in a 60% leave seat while leading national polls; there's every risk this is a post-Euros peak and TBP's support settles a bit over the next few months. But Labour and the Tories should both be looking at their vote shares with disappointment, and the LDs looking at how many people *did* vote for TBP as a big danger sign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Not really, https://twitter.com/benschofield/status/1136792016304660481?s=20
    If it didn't work in converting Con->TBP, that surely makes it more of an own goal, right?
    No, as it probably got them this close
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Wtf were they thinking with those?
    Persuading Tories, presumably
    But why would it cause more Tory -> TBP than LD -> Lab? Surely the latter is a bigger pool to start with
    Nope.
    So you think there's going to be more Con votes than LD?
    I don't know, but there were more to squeeze initially.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited June 2019
    Killing the remain alliance looks like a good move from the People's Vote Campaign as well. They'll take the short term jubilation from Corbyn supporters at holding on to one of their own seats over the Brexit Party gaining more steam.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Quincel said:

    Assuming the strong rumours are true and Labour have held on, my overwhelming sense is that there is bad news for basically everyone. Farage has to feel gutted he can't win a by-election in a 60% leave seat while leading national polls; there's every risk this is a post-Euros peak and TBP's support settles a bit over the next few months. But Labour and the Tories should both be looking at their vote shares with disappointment, and the LDs looking at how many people *did* vote for TBP as a big danger sign.

    Yeah right I am really disappointed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Not really, https://twitter.com/benschofield/status/1136792016304660481?s=20
    If it didn't work in converting Con->TBP, that surely makes it more of an own goal, right?
    No, as it probably got them this close
    "Probably" based on what? On what basis do you think it converted more Con to TBP than it did LD to Lab?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    Or that efficient local campaigns matter to individual results.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Quincel said:

    Assuming the strong rumours are true and Labour have held on, my overwhelming sense is that there is bad news for basically everyone. Farage has to feel gutted he can't win a by-election in a 60% leave seat while leading national polls; there's every risk this is a post-Euros peak and TBP's support settles a bit over the next few months. But Labour and the Tories should both be looking at their vote shares with disappointment, and the LDs looking at how many people *did* vote for TBP as a big danger sign.

    Yeah right I am really disappointed.
    Just my opinion, but I think Labour should be disappointed if they've held this on a reduced vote share by a small margin. It's just about good enough to win under these circumstances, but it doesn't show real strength or resilience to TBP peeling off voters.

    Holding the seat is great. But the vote shifts beyond that are not so great, imho.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sajid Javid will be pleased at Andrew Neil's poll, with relatively high positives and low negatives.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    Or that efficient local campaigns matter to individual results.
    That's what's won it if Lab. won
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    Curtice saying Peterboro result in line with national polls
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Sajid Javid will be pleased at Andrew Neil's poll, with relatively high positives and low negatives.

    Yes, the best ratio (or the lease bad ratio) of the lot. Even Boris is about 2:1 Bad compared to Javid's 1.5:1.

    Gove and Hunt though. Oof.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    Or that actual elections aren't the same as opinion polls! Especially when people have every incentive to make a point in an opinion poll at present (some of whom won't make that point in a by-election; clearly plenty will).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It would be interesting if they release the turnout data for each ward so we can see if certain areas were more enthusiastic in voting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    A small win for Labour on a hugely reduced vote share would be in line with polling.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Candidates called to be told the provisional result
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Let’s not forget that in other news TM resigns as leader of the tories today ,
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Assuming the strong rumours are true and Labour have held on, my overwhelming sense is that there is bad news for basically everyone. Farage has to feel gutted he can't win a by-election in a 60% leave seat while leading national polls; there's every risk this is a post-Euros peak and TBP's support settles a bit over the next few months. But Labour and the Tories should both be looking at their vote shares with disappointment, and the LDs looking at how many people *did* vote for TBP as a big danger sign.

    Yeah right I am really disappointed.
    Just my opinion, but I think Labour should be disappointed if they've held this on a reduced vote share by a small margin. It's just about good enough to win under these circumstances, but it doesn't show real strength or resilience to TBP peeling off voters.

    Holding the seat is great. But the vote shifts beyond that are not so great, imho.
    Lab. were 8.6 on Betfair earlier

    Delighted to hang on and get another Corbynite MP from there.

    Doesn't mean keys to Downing Street are in the bag.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those bar charts showing a two-horse race between Labour and the Brexit Party were an own goal.
    Not really, https://twitter.com/benschofield/status/1136792016304660481?s=20
    If it didn't work in converting Con->TBP, that surely makes it more of an own goal, right?
    No, as it probably got them this close
    "Probably" based on what? On what basis do you think it converted more Con to TBP than it did LD to Lab?
    The LDs got 3% in 2017, it looks like the Tory vote will have fallen substantially though even if it held up better than expected
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    I suppose at least for Mike Greene he doesn't need the MPs salary and I can't imagine it would have been much fun being the sole BXP MP sitting on the opposition backbenches alongside the Chukas/ex Chukas, LDs, Greens and SNP? He presumably would have been sworn in in silence rather than with the usual cheers for by election winners.

    And Farage also now doesn't need to worry about a parliamentary leader who might not always be on message as was the issue with Carswell.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    The Tory leaflet made it a two-horse race too. That's the downside of not contesting the locals :D

    In happier times we'd have won this seat. :(
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    kjohnw said:

    Let’s not forget that in other news TM resigns as leader of the tories today ,

    Yet stays PM and interim Tory leader
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Farage has left the count
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    But weren't you confidently predicting last month that if we were still in the EU, TBP would romp home? What happened to that?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    It's been suggested 10,000 + Labour, 9,000 +TBP.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Farage has left the count

    Allegedly worse for wear in a pub for hours today.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678

    Farage has left the count

    Then they've lost... right?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    brendan16 said:

    I suppose at least for Mike Greene he doesn't need the MPs salary and I can't imagine it would have been much fun being the sole BXP MP sitting on the opposition backbenches alongside the Chukas/ex Chukas, LDs, Greens and SNP? He presumably would have been sworn in in silence rather than with the usual cheers for by election winners.

    And Farage also now doesn't need to worry about a parliamentary leader who might not always be on message as was the issue with Carswell.

    Yep. A first time and only MP for a party with no policies was bound to go wrong on first contact with enemy.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited June 2019
    There needs to be some theories on what drove the Brexit Party to be 1/7 favourites. The only thing they really ever had in their favour were the European Election results, which are a different type of elections to Westminster.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Farage has left the count

    Then they've lost... right?
    50/1 now.

    God I wish I had jumped on lab aat around 11 tonight
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Artist said:

    There needs to be some theories on what drove the Brexit Party to be 1/7 favourites. The only thing they really ever had in their favour were the European Election results, which are a different type of elections to Westminster.

    Another betting failure after Australia.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Very healthy Tory vote there by the looks of it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Very healthy Tory vote there by the looks of it
    :o
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Declaration

    Labour activists are chanting "Lisa, Lisa, Lisa"
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    they lost the Labour candidate
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    Very healthy Tory vote there by the looks of it
    It looks like the Conservative vote did not collapse after all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Sean_F said:

    Very healthy Tory vote there by the looks of it
    It looks like the Conservative vote did not collapse after all.
    7k votes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Declaration

    Labour activists are chanting "Lisa, Lisa, Lisa"

    A load of activists shouting for an anti-semite.

    Roll up folks - Lab in 2019
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Classy booing from supporters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Sean_F said:

    Very healthy Tory vote there by the looks of it
    It looks like the Conservative vote did not collapse after all.
    7k votes
    Who said the Tories were like cockroaches? :D
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Lab 10484

    TBP 9801

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab 10,484
    Brexit 9,801
    Con 7,243
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    LD 4159
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Conservatives have far exceeded some expectations there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Well, at least I did not lose any money tonight.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    LibDem 4,159
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Artist said:

    There needs to be some theories on what drove the Brexit Party to be 1/7 favourites. The only thing they really ever had in their favour were the European Election results, which are a different type of elections to Westminster.

    I think the general view was that after winning 9% in the Euros, the Conservative vote share would collapse in favour of TBP. But, it didn't.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories got a lot closer to winning than expected. They were 100/1 earlier today.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Wow the Tories did much better than expected . If the BP can’t win here then really what a shocker .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Artist said:

    Conservatives have far exceeded some expectations there.

    Almost winning here! :o:D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories and Brexit Party got 50.25%.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Well, at least I did not lose any money tonight.

    The night is young. Time to bet on when Theresa May will step down as party leader.

    Or rather to bet on how Betfair will settle the market. Is it today when she stops being leader but immediately becomes acting leader, or July or later when she is replaced as leader?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Tory vote held up very well and denied Farage a win. Good. Also easily beat the LDs.

    If normal circumstances return, the Tories should comfortably win that seat back. If not, it will be one of many where Farage puts Corbyn into power by a landslide.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab 10,484
    BRX 9,801
    Con 7,243
    LD 4,159
    Green 1,035
    UKIP 400
    CPA 162
    ED 153
    SDP 135
    Loony 112
    Common Good 60
    EU 25
    Ind Smith 25

    Lab maj 683
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    There needs to be some theories on what drove the Brexit Party to be 1/7 favourites. The only thing they really ever had in their favour were the European Election results, which are a different type of elections to Westminster.

    I think the general view was that after winning 9% in the Euros, the Conservative vote share would collapse in favour of TBP. But, it didn't.
    Perhaps May resigning and the expectation Boris will become PM and deliver Brexit has resulted in some firming up of their vote?

    So when do the pundits add up the 'leave' and 'remain' votes and tell us who actually 'won' tonight.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    AndyJS said:

    Tories and Brexit Party got 50.25%.

    Close but no cigar, in the end.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    LAB: 30.9% (-17.2)
    BREX: 28.9% (+28.9)
    CON: 21.4% (-25.5)
    LDEM: 12.3% (+8.9)
    GRN: 3.1%
    UKIP: 1.2%

    Electoral calculus prediction for GE:

    LAB 27.3%
    CON 18.8%
    LIB 16.9%
    Green 7.7%
    UKIP 1.0%
    ChUK 2.3%
    Brexit 25.6%
This discussion has been closed.