Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Polling round-up. Euros, cra

12346

Comments

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    New record low for a winner in a by-election, per Curtice. 30.9%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories only 3,241 votes behind first place.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Quincel said:

    Sajid Javid will be pleased at Andrew Neil's poll, with relatively high positives and low negatives.

    Yes, the best ratio (or the lease bad ratio) of the lot. Even Boris is about 2:1 Bad compared to Javid's 1.5:1.

    Gove and Hunt though. Oof.
    Sajid and perhaps Andrea Leadsom too need to get those numbers into the hands of backbenchers before the first ballot.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pulpstar said:

    LAB: 30.9% (-17.2)
    BREX: 28.9% (+28.9)
    CON: 21.4% (-25.5)
    LDEM: 12.3% (+8.9)
    GRN: 3.1%
    UKIP: 1.2%

    Electoral calculus prediction for GE:

    LAB 27.3%
    CON 18.8%
    LIB 16.9%
    Green 7.7%
    UKIP 1.0%
    ChUK 2.3%
    Brexit 25.6%

    ChUK on 2.3? :p
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour celebrating a 17% drop in their vote as a "good result".
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    Tories only 3,241 votes behind first place.

    Suddenly a snap general election might not look quite so scary for the new prime minister.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    AndyJS said:

    Tories only 3,241 votes behind first place.

    Rory Stewart was campaigning in Peterborough...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    AndyJS said:

    Labour celebrating a 17% drop in their vote as a "good result".

    Not as bad as us PB Tories celebrating third place in a seat we should have won. I suppose it’s the little things in life :D
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019

    New record low for a winner in a by-election, per Curtice. 30.9%

    And it shows that first past the post on current national polls could produce some very odd and mixed results. You could get lots of seats won on small majorities which makes predicting an election result in terms of MPs very hard to call. I can see lots of tactical voting efforts.

    Still good night for Corbyn - and now we move onto the election for Tory leader. A week from now we will know the result of the first ballot.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    AndyJS said:

    Tories only 3,241 votes behind first place.

    Rory Stewart was campaigning in Peterborough...
    Too bad about the threshold. A Boris vs Stewart final would be a sight to behold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    So Labour will be pleased to hold but the Brexit Party came close and the Tories will be relieved to beat the LDs for 3rd.

    Note too the Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP over 50%
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Everyone is happy! Good Night!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pulpstar said:

    LAB: 30.9% (-17.2)
    BREX: 28.9% (+28.9)
    CON: 21.4% (-25.5)
    LDEM: 12.3% (+8.9)
    GRN: 3.1%
    UKIP: 1.2%

    Electoral calculus prediction for GE:

    LAB 27.3%
    CON 18.8%
    LIB 16.9%
    Green 7.7%
    UKIP 1.0%
    ChUK 2.3%
    Brexit 25.6%

    That prediction looks close to Sunday's Deltapoll
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The BBC really are desperate .

    The BP was expected to win and yet they just keep trashing Labour . Farage slunk out after his photo op as the big winner imploded!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    But weren't you confidently predicting last month that if we were still in the EU, TBP would romp home? What happened to that?
    The Tory vote held up a bit because May is going and Boris looks likely to succeed her on a Brexit with Deal or No Deal ticket in October
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory and Brexit Party own goal, really, allowing Labour to win with 30%.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Greened up. My natural cowardice overcame me.

    Left thirty-odd quid on the table. Did not win the metaphorical small family car but perhaps a table at a posh restaurant, provided no-one orders a £4,500 bottle of plonk, or even the £450 one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder if postals made the difference. They did in Eastleigh.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    Congratulations to Jeremy Corbyn: terrific result for him, but a disaster for the Labour Party. They’ll never get rid of him before the next election.

    Tories pleased with 17%. Ho ho.

    Has Farage blown it already? No, but I think that Revoke is now the most likely outcome.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    Congratulations to Jeremy Corbyn: terrific result for him, but a disaster for the Labour Party. They’ll never get rid of him before the next election.

    Tories pleased with 17%. Ho ho.

    Has Farage blown it already? No, but I think that Revoke is now the most likely outcome.

    21%, if you please
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2019
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    On the latest poll yes, but it's marginal. On the recent polling average Peterborough just stays Labour. In fact if you combine the latest poll to the average you get very close to the by-election result, as Curtice mentioned.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nico67 said:

    The BBC really are desperate .

    The BP was expected to win and yet they just keep trashing Labour . Farage slunk out after his photo op as the big winner imploded!

    The BBC want a different Labour leader, is that right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2019
    New Labour MP Lisa Forbes refuses to back EUref2 on BBC and instead backs Labour official policy of backing a Brexit Deal that protects jobs and living standards etc.

    Confirms this is a victory for Corbyn and his Brexit policy over Labour Remainers
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Sounds like the Labour candidate has won by pledging to "honour" the referendum but will get to Westminster and do everything she can to force a second referendum...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    HYUFD said:

    New Labour MP Lisa Forbes refuses to back EUref2 on BBC and instead backs Labour official policy of backing a Brexit Deal that protects jobs and living standards etc.

    Confirms this is a victory for Corbyn and his Brexit policy over Labour Remainers

    A Brexit deal that requires the WA to be signed. They are so transparent.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    Interesting article on the local Peterborough newspaper website about the challenges allegedly faced by some polling station staff in relation to the conduct of the poll today.

    Anyone here take ever take pictures of their completed ballot paper on their phone for wider circulation or are aware of the supposed practice of family voting?

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-by-election-concern-over-voters-taking-photographs-at-polling-booths-1-8955181
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    AndyJS said:

    Tories only 3,241 votes behind first place.

    Suddenly a snap general election might not look quite so scary for the new prime minister.
    Ruthie might beg to differ.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Ohh Jeremy Corbyn!

    Great result for Labour, should help with unity as well.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    brendan16 said:

    Interesting article on the local Peterborough newspaper website about the challenges allegedly faced by some polling station staff in relation to the conduct of the poll today.

    Anyone here take ever take pictures of their completed ballot paper on their phone for wider circulation or are aware of the supposed practice of family voting?

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-by-election-concern-over-voters-taking-photographs-at-polling-booths-1-8955181

    Clearly this should be stopped. Probably most of it is harmless and along the same lines as people photographing their food in restaurants, but there are obvious implications in terms of votes being either compelled or sold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2019
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840


    Congratulations to Jeremy Corbyn: terrific result for him, but a disaster for the Labour Party. They’ll never get rid of him before the next election.

    The coup was never on anyway, will help Labour as it will lessen attacks of Labour MPs against the party until we get to a general election.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    Clearly this should be stopped. Probably most of it is harmless and along the same lines as people photographing their food in restaurants, but there are obvious implications in terms of votes being either compelled or sold.

    It's impossible to stop, we have cameras everywhere, photograph everything routinely, and they're getting smaller and less detectable.

    Any part of election security that relies on ballots not being photographed needs to be redesigned.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    Congratulations to Jeremy Corbyn: terrific result for him, but a disaster for the Labour Party. They’ll never get rid of him before the next election.

    Tories pleased with 17%. Ho ho.

    Has Farage blown it already? No, but I think that Revoke is now the most likely outcome.

    21%, if you please
    My bad. Edit: Tories pleased with a 25 point drop against a party whose last MP was a walking, talking advertisement for not voting Labour.

    I’m delighted that you didn’t find fault with the rest of my analysis.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941


    Clearly this should be stopped. Probably most of it is harmless and along the same lines as people photographing their food in restaurants, but there are obvious implications in terms of votes being either compelled or sold.

    It's impossible to stop, we have cameras everywhere, photograph everything routinely, and they're getting smaller and less detectable.

    Any part of election security that relies on ballots not being photographed needs to be redesigned.
    It’s not impossible to stop. Simply fit each ballot box with an electromagnetic pulse generator. When a ballot is inserted nearby phones get wiped. Easy. :)
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300


    Clearly this should be stopped. Probably most of it is harmless and along the same lines as people photographing their food in restaurants, but there are obvious implications in terms of votes being either compelled or sold.

    It's impossible to stop, we have cameras everywhere, photograph everything routinely, and they're getting smaller and less detectable.

    Any part of election security that relies on ballots not being photographed needs to be redesigned.
    How? Electronic voting won't solve it because that can be filmed too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    Fun, isn’t it? :D
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019


    Clearly this should be stopped. Probably most of it is harmless and along the same lines as people photographing their food in restaurants, but there are obvious implications in terms of votes being either compelled or sold.

    It's impossible to stop, we have cameras everywhere, photograph everything routinely, and they're getting smaller and less detectable.

    Any part of election security that relies on ballots not being photographed needs to be redesigned.
    There is also the separate issue of multiple people being in the polling booth when votes are cast (aka family voting) - which also undermines the secret ballot principle. If the article is to be believed this was observed in around half of polling stations yesterday - albeit it was often challenged by the polling clerks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    Congratulations to Jeremy Corbyn: terrific result for him, but a disaster for the Labour Party. They’ll never get rid of him before the next election.

    Tories pleased with 17%. Ho ho.

    Has Farage blown it already? No, but I think that Revoke is now the most likely outcome.

    No Tory PM is going to allow revoke and survive more than 5 minutes, more likely the Tory vote holding up tonight give a a platform for Boris to win back Brexit Party voters on a hard Brexit platform if necessary in an autumn general election if the Commons tries to push further extension or revoke if Macron vetoes
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited June 2019

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    They should just start a new party..... again....

    CUK 2, this time it's serious!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

    Deltapoll might be the new gold standard, but the UK certainly isn’t. If that is anywhere close to the next GE result, with the “winning” party getting about 25% of the vote, then it will be the laughing stock of the planet. Italy, here we come!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    So Tories 'only' down 25% and Labour 'only' down 17%.

    And so the chances of any change diminish further. Labour win so all is well for Corbyn, and the Tories still know they need to suck up to the BXP tendency even more to stop the rot, while LDs start from so far in some places it's too much a hurdle to climb.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

    Deltapoll might be the new gold standard, but the UK certainly isn’t. If that is anywhere close to the next GE result, with the “winning” party getting about 25% of the vote, then it will be the laughing stock of the planet. Italy, here we come!
    You can see it happening under our electoral system - most likely with Labour winning a majority on less than 30 per cent if the Tory/BXP vote is split with small majorities in large numbers of seats.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2019

    How? Electronic voting won't solve it because that can be filmed too.

    A few approaches:

    1) Forget about secret ballots. Postal votes already broke them, omnipresent cameras are another nail in the coffin. Just concentrate on detecting and punishing vote-buying and intimidation (potentially including rewards for snitching). That goes with the grain of technology, because it's also getting easier to record and report the vote-buying.

    2) Don't try to secure the input part, just secure the final confirmation step. With paper ballots, that's the part where you put the vote in the box. So instead of only giving the voter one ballot paper and giving them another one only in edge cases where they screw it up, routinely give them a stack of them and have them fill in a few, photograph whichever they want, then fold them up and take them to the public area and put the one they want to use in the box, and the other ones in the bin. In the online case you make it possible to change your vote any time, and make the screen for changing your vote look identical to the one for casting the vote originally.

    3) Move the secret from the paper to the voter's brain. Wrote it up this way many years ago, the auditing part can probably be improved with zero-knowledge-proof-type clevers: https://edmundintokyo.wordpress.com/2009/12/30/heads-or-tails-voting-a-secret-ballot-in-plain-sight/
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    They should just start a new party..... again....

    CUK 2, this time it's serious!
    Well done! A really impressive result for Corbynites like yourself. Enjoy it, cos the next 10 years are going to be hell for “true” Labour. You are about to get royally shafted by the Establishment. Been there, done that, t shirt purchased.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    The bbc would probably prefer the most dramatic outcome. As for the
    blairites once more they cannot find cover for what they want to do in challenging Corbyn. For all Farage and co once again fall just short and labour hardly romped home, fact is they cannot rely on the voters getting Corbyn out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Tories would be more confident of having a chance in brecon now I guess, although if the mp is ousted but they choose him as the candidate then unlike here the voters could punish the literal criminal candidate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Well, I must admit to falling asleep before the declaration!

    But congrats to Labour for holding on, though their majority is almost the same as Fiona's.

    Third big drop in Labour support at a Labour defence by-election this Parliament:

    Lewisham East: -18%
    Newport West: -13%
    Peterborough: -17%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

    Deltapoll might be the new gold standard, but the UK certainly isn’t. If that is anywhere close to the next GE result, with the “winning” party getting about 25% of the vote, then it will be the laughing stock of the planet. Italy, here we come!
    You can see it happening under our electoral system - most likely with Labour winning a majority on less than 30 per cent if the Tory/BXP vote is split with small majorities in large numbers of seats.
    Yepp. Il sorpasso all over again. Only this time it’s not economics but politics: just as Italy abandons an unstable 10-party system, the UK decides to adopt it. If you want to see the future, look at Italian parliamentary history.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

    Deltapoll might be the new gold standard, but the UK certainly isn’t. If that is anywhere close to the next GE result, with the “winning” party getting about 25% of the vote, then it will be the laughing stock of the planet. Italy, here we come!
    What are you talking about, plenty of countries have winning parties on pretty low percentages. Another obsessed with being a laughing stock, it's like the blairites desperate for Corbyn to do badly in its transparent hope.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    kle4 said:

    Tories would be more confident of having a chance in brecon now I guess, although if the mp is ousted but they choose him as the candidate then unlike here the voters could punish the literal criminal candidate.

    There are two weeks left before the Brecon recall petition closes. Despite it being a large rural seat there are only six locations where you can sign it - not sure if that will affect the number of signatures?

    Postal 'votes' and even petition signatures by proxy are allowed - the closing date for proxy vote requests is next Wednesday.

    http://www.brecon-radnor.co.uk/article.cfm?id=110751&headline=These are the details of the Chris Davies recall petition&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2019
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    That feels like a gain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Anyway, now the excitement is done time for sleep again. Corbyn will have some fine quotes about this I am sure.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    kle4 said:

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    The bbc would probably prefer the most dramatic outcome. As for the
    blairites once more they cannot find cover for what they want to do in challenging Corbyn. For all Farage and co once again fall just short and labour hardly romped home, fact is they cannot rely on the voters getting Corbyn out.
    Nope. If the Establishment want rid of Corbyn -and they do - they’ll have to do it themselves. The voters look disinclined to assist.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019
    kinabalu said:


    That feels like a gain.

    Absolutely!

    Another terrific night for the bookies. I hope nobody bet the mortgage on the FAV Brexit Party. Bunch of total duds.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    How? Electronic voting won't solve it because that can be filmed too.

    A few approaches:

    1) Forget about secret ballots. Postal votes already broke them, omnipresent cameras are another nail in the coffin. Just concentrate on detecting and punishing vote-buying and intimidation (potentially including rewards for snitching). That goes with the grain of technology, because it's also getting easier to record and report the vote-buying.

    2) Don't try to secure the input part, just secure the final confirmation step. With paper ballots, that's the part where you put the vote in the box. So instead of only giving the voter one ballot paper and giving them another one only in edge cases where they screw it up, routinely give them a stack of them and have them fill in a few, photograph whichever they want, then fold them up and take them to the public area and put the one they want to use in the box, and the other ones in the bin. In the online case you make it possible to change your vote any time, and make the screen for changing your vote look identical to the one for casting the vote originally.

    3) Move the secret from the paper to the voter's brain. Wrote it up this way many years ago, the auditing part can probably be improved with zero-knowledge-proof-type clevers: https://edmundintokyo.wordpress.com/2009/12/30/heads-or-tails-voting-a-secret-ballot-in-plain-sight/
    It looks too complicated to be practical.

    One step I'd like to see is getting away from the numbered ballot papers, not because I am paranoid about Special Branch but because they slow the process down and create bunching. Then you could control the flow of voters and avoid family voting by only letting those with a slip in their hands approach the booths. Randomising the order of candidates' names would make it hard to tell from across the room how someone voted.

    The point is there are a lot of low-tech and no tech steps that could be taken to deal with what is probably not a big problem yet but one that may grow.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    The bizarreness of this comment gives your biases away. This was a great result for the LDs in the great scheme of things. Instead of their vote being squeezed they quadrupled it, with an implied swing from Con to LD of 17%. That's a gain of about 40 seats at a GE.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    It looks too complicated to be practical.

    One step I'd like to see is getting away from the numbered ballot papers, not because I am paranoid about Special Branch but because they slow the process down and create bunching. Then you could control the flow of voters and avoid family voting by only letting those with a slip in their hands approach the booths. Randomising the order of candidates' names would make it hard to tell from across the room how someone voted.

    The point is there are a lot of low-tech and no tech steps that could be taken to deal with what is probably not a big problem yet but one that may grow.

    (1) wasn't complicated, it was basically "give up securing secret ballots, postal voting already killed them".
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited June 2019
    kle4 said:

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    The bbc would probably prefer the most dramatic outcome. As for the
    blairites once more they cannot find cover for what they want to do in challenging Corbyn. For all Farage and co once again fall just short and labour hardly romped home, fact is they cannot rely on the voters getting Corbyn out.
    It is funny that they say they want him out in part because he is unelectable but good election results under him keep foiling their plans....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

    Deltapoll might be the new gold standard, but the UK certainly isn’t. If that is anywhere close to the next GE result, with the “winning” party getting about 25% of the vote, then it will be the laughing stock of the planet. Italy, here we come!
    What are you talking about, plenty of countries have winning parties on pretty low percentages. Another obsessed with being a laughing stock, it's like the blairites desperate for Corbyn to do badly in its transparent hope.
    Yes, plenty of countries have winning parties on low percentages; witness prime minister Löfven in Sweden: his party only got 28% of the vote.

    But try that in an FPTP electoral system. Stocks, laughter and rotten turnips will ensue.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited June 2019
    Dadge said:

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    The bizarreness of this comment gives your biases away. This was a great result for the LDs in the great scheme of things. Instead of their vote being squeezed they quadrupled it, with an implied swing from Con to LD of 17%. That's a gain of about 40 seats at a GE.
    The Tory candidates most likely to appeal to potential Lib Dem voting Tories don't look like the type of candidates who will win the Tory leadership, Lib Dems must fancy their chances at grabbing Tory votes as they go off chasing Brexit party votes.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300


    It looks too complicated to be practical.

    One step I'd like to see is getting away from the numbered ballot papers, not because I am paranoid about Special Branch but because they slow the process down and create bunching. Then you could control the flow of voters and avoid family voting by only letting those with a slip in their hands approach the booths. Randomising the order of candidates' names would make it hard to tell from across the room how someone voted.

    The point is there are a lot of low-tech and no tech steps that could be taken to deal with what is probably not a big problem yet but one that may grow.

    (1) wasn't complicated, it was basically "give up securing secret ballots, postal voting already killed them".
    Postal votes have their own problems, besides enabling the sale of votes. Your multi-step heads and tails procedure and instructions would have been rejected by Michael Gove as too complicated for GCSEs.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    From the Guardian:


    "Brexit party insiders said Labour’s reliance upon a mainly Pakistani vote in inner-city wards had been the difference between the parties. “Some of these houses had 14 people in them registered to vote. It would be interesting to see what proportion voted Labour,” said one.

    Labour have denied relying on the city’s Asian voting, and insisted that it was a “racist trope”."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/07/peterborough-byelection-result-labour-sees-off-brexit-party-threat-to-hold-seat
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    kle4 said:

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    The bbc would probably prefer the most dramatic outcome. As for the
    blairites once more they cannot find cover for what they want to do in challenging Corbyn. For all Farage and co once again fall just short and labour hardly romped home, fact is they cannot rely on the voters getting Corbyn out.
    It is funny that they say they want him out in part because he is unelectable but good election results under him keep foiling their plans....
    In the eyes of the Establishment he is just not up to scratch. He has the whiff of being un-British. The ultimate crime.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    kle4 said:

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    The bbc would probably prefer the most dramatic outcome. As for the
    blairites once more they cannot find cover for what they want to do in challenging Corbyn. For all Farage and co once again fall just short and labour hardly romped home, fact is they cannot rely on the voters getting Corbyn out.
    It is funny that they say they want him out in part because he is unelectable but good election results under him keep foiling their plans....
    Same with IDS whose election results were surprisingly good.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    kle4 said:

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    The bbc would probably prefer the most dramatic outcome. As for the
    blairites once more they cannot find cover for what they want to do in challenging Corbyn. For all Farage and co once again fall just short and labour hardly romped home, fact is they cannot rely on the voters getting Corbyn out.
    It is funny that they say they want him out in part because he is unelectable but good election results under him keep foiling their plans....
    In the eyes of the Establishment he is just not up to scratch. He has the whiff of being un-British. The ultimate crime.

    kle4 said:

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    The bbc would probably prefer the most dramatic outcome. As for the
    blairites once more they cannot find cover for what they want to do in challenging Corbyn. For all Farage and co once again fall just short and labour hardly romped home, fact is they cannot rely on the voters getting Corbyn out.
    It is funny that they say they want him out in part because he is unelectable but good election results under him keep foiling their plans....
    Same with IDS whose election results were surprisingly good.
    Looks like something they are going to have to grin and bear :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    kinabalu said:


    That feels like a gain.

    Like Lord Mandelson's "insurgents"? :lol:
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019
    Dadge said:

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    The bizarreness of this comment gives your biases away. This was a great result for the LDs in the great scheme of things. Instead of their vote being squeezed they quadrupled it, with an implied swing from Con to LD of 17%. That's a gain of about 40 seats at a GE.
    Liberal Democrat vote 2010: 20%
    Liberal Democrat vote 2019: 12%, after a solid week of non-stop pro-LD hype.

    I repeat: dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    From the Guardian:


    "Brexit party insiders said Labour’s reliance upon a mainly Pakistani vote in inner-city wards had been the difference between the parties. “Some of these houses had 14 people in them registered to vote. It would be interesting to see what proportion voted Labour,” said one.

    Labour have denied relying on the city’s Asian voting, and insisted that it was a “racist trope”."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/07/peterborough-byelection-result-labour-sees-off-brexit-party-threat-to-hold-seat

    It would not be very interesting at all, since families tend to vote the same way in any case, probably because their circumstances tend to be similar and because children grow up listening to dad moaning about Labour and/or the Tories.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Dadge said:

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    The bizarreness of this comment gives your biases away. This was a great result for the LDs in the great scheme of things. Instead of their vote being squeezed they quadrupled it, with an implied swing from Con to LD of 17%. That's a gain of about 40 seats at a GE.
    The Tory candidates most likely to appeal to potential Lib Dem voting Tories don't look like the type of candidates who will win the Tory leadership, Lib Dems must fancy their chances at grabbing Tory votes as they go off chasing Brexit party votes.
    Indeed. But the next Tory leader is only going to be in office max 2 years. The leader after that will likely be more attractive to Con/LD swingers.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Postal votes have their own problems, besides enabling the sale of votes.

    Sure, but my point is that they're a thing, and whether a given voter uses them or not can be mostly chosen by the adversary, so in the system as it stands secret ballot security is basically pointless, and it's also pointless to worry about stopping people posting photos of their vote on twitter or whatever.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    kle4 said:

    The BBC really are furious. They are so desperate to get rid of Corbyn and get an electable leader in place for “their” party.

    Quite a lot of Blairites grinding their teeth tonight.

    The bbc would probably prefer the most dramatic outcome. As for the
    blairites once more they cannot find cover for what they want to do in challenging Corbyn. For all Farage and co once again fall just short and labour hardly romped home, fact is they cannot rely on the voters getting Corbyn out.
    It is funny that they say they want him out in part because he is unelectable but good election results under him keep foiling their plans....
    Same with IDS whose election results were surprisingly good.
    Third big drop in Labour support at a Labour defence by-election this Parliament:

    Lewisham East: -18%
    Newport West: -13%
    Peterborough: -17%
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Dadge said:

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    The bizarreness of this comment gives your biases away. This was a great result for the LDs in the great scheme of things. Instead of their vote being squeezed they quadrupled it, with an implied swing from Con to LD of 17%. That's a gain of about 40 seats at a GE.
    The Tory candidates most likely to appeal to potential Lib Dem voting Tories don't look like the type of candidates who will win the Tory leadership, Lib Dems must fancy their chances at grabbing Tory votes as they go off chasing Brexit party votes.
    Indeed. But the next Tory leader is only going to be in office max 2 years. The leader after that will likely be more attractive to Con/LD swingers.
    Is the leader after that going to be leading a much bigger party than the Lib Dems?

    Not impossible that they won't...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Dadge said:

    Dreadful result for the Liberal Democrats. A real stinker. Voters must have taken a look at Jo Swinson and not liked what they saw.

    The bizarreness of this comment gives your biases away. This was a great result for the LDs in the great scheme of things. Instead of their vote being squeezed they quadrupled it, with an implied swing from Con to LD of 17%. That's a gain of about 40 seats at a GE.
    The Tory candidates most likely to appeal to potential Lib Dem voting Tories don't look like the type of candidates who will win the Tory leadership, Lib Dems must fancy their chances at grabbing Tory votes as they go off chasing Brexit party votes.
    Indeed. But the next Tory leader is only going to be in office max 2 years. The leader after that will likely be more attractive to Con/LD swingers.
    Is the leader after that going to be leading a much bigger party than the Lib Dems?

    Not impossible that they won't...
    Indeed. Latest ElectoralCalculus prediction has the Tories only 3 seats ahead of the Liberal Democrats::

    Brexit Party 249 seats (+249)
    Labour 216 seats (-46)
    SNP 56 seats (+21)
    Conservatives 54 seats (-264)
    Lib Dems 51 seats (+39)
    Plaid Cymru 5 seats (+1)
    Greens 1 seat (nc)
    NI 18 seats (nc)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Regarding German poll showing the Social Democrats on only 12%. This has also happened in France and Scotland. There is no rule that says that the main, post-war centre-left party must always get more than 20% of the vote. English Labour and Welsh Labour could both be sub-20% quite soon.

    Enjoy Peterborough, cos longer term things are not looking good for you lot.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited June 2019
    ..
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Regarding German poll showing the Social Democrats on only 12%. This has also happened in France and Scotland. There is no rule that says that the main, post-war centre-left party must always get more than 20% of the vote. English Labour and Welsh Labour could both be sub-20% quite soon.

    Enjoy Peterborough, cos longer term things are not looking good for you lot.


    We were doomed when we got 40% in the GE against the odds, we are doomed now we have won the Peterborough by election against the odds.

    I just worry how doomed people will tell us we are should we win a GE, I'm sure people will say it is the end for the Labour party.

    Also, maybe you hadn't noticed up there in Scotland but part of the reason for moving towards Corbyn was to avoid the fate of centre left parties across Europe by offering a clear left wing platform.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2019

    Also, maybe you hadn't noticed up there in Scotland but part of the reason for moving towards Corbyn was to avoid the fate of centre left parties across Europe by offering a clear left wing platform.

    Kind of ironic that they started out correctly observing that the era of amorphous centrism was over and the party needed clear positions that would excite their members even at the risk of losing people who disagreed, then somehow ended up in this position of weaselly triangulation on the main issue of the day.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    The excellent Peterborough result underlines the fact largely ignored by some Northern Labour MPs that all "Leave" voters are not necessarily Labour voters. Even some Leave voters will still vote Labour in a Westminster election because other issues matter more to them. They are not consumed by Brexit as most Tory / BXP / UKIP / BNP / ED voters are
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Also, maybe you hadn't noticed up there in Scotland but part of the reason for moving towards Corbyn was to avoid the fate of centre left parties across Europe by offering a clear left wing platform.

    Kind of ironic that they started out correctly observing that the era of amorphous centrism was over and the party needed clear positions that would excite their members even at the risk of losing people who disagreed, then somehow ended up in this position of weaselly triangulation on the main issue of the day.
    The members are excited about the idea of changing our economic policies, not a culture war over Brexit. So we stick with that position even at the risk of losing people who disagree.

    It is highly likely the members will tack a referendum onto those economic changes anyway in the conference so don't worry too much (if Labour not backing another referendum is something you worry about)

    I would point out though that Labour have voted for a referendum a few times already, the Labour leadership voting for the idea and whipping for the idea has not been enough to make it happen. In terms of actually getting another referendum Labour ruling out the idea of backing a deal without one doesn't actually get us that much closer.

    You need people who haven't backed another referendum to back one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited June 2019
    Just enough Tory loyalty to prevent the widely predicted BXP surge, and another vote against Brexit in parliament. The worst result for the Tories. Scrub a 2019 GE from any of the contenders’ planning.

    As soon as HY predicted a massive BXP I win I began to wonder whether Labour would hold it. But not to the extent of putting any money on, sadly.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

    Labour largest party with 278 seats. Brexit Party 136. Con 128, LD 31, SNP 55. Tory and LD share very consistent with Peterborough result !
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

    Labour largest party with 278 seats. Brexit Party 136. Con 128, LD 31, SNP 55. Tory and LD share very consistent with Peterborough result !
    That is without a general election campaign with campaigning legend Jezza doing his stuff and the media (or parts) having to give fair coverage so giving Labour a chance to get their message out there.

    General election now!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136



    The members are excited about the idea of changing our economic policies, not a culture war over Brexit. So we stick with that position even at the risk of losing people who disagree.

    It is highly likely the members will tack a referendum onto those economic changes anyway in the conference so don't worry too much (if Labour not backing another referendum is something you worry about)

    I would point out though that Labour have voted for a referendum a few times already, the Labour leadership voting for the idea and whipping for the idea has not been enough to make it happen. In terms of actually getting another referendum Labour ruling out the idea of backing a deal without one doesn't actually get us that much closer.

    You need people who haven't backed another referendum to back one.

    I don't particularly disagree, there's not that much *practical* difference between Labour's current position and just backing a referendum. But that's what makes the weaseling all the weirder: It's not like there are loads of leavers out there who are thinking, "a referendum is a democratic abomination and these remainers are trying to steal brexit but Labour only support one on alternate tuesdays when they can't get their version of brexit so that's OK".

    As for a conference in the autumn I'm not convinced the government will hold out that long.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Betting post for quick fingers. The Andrea Leadsom arb is back, between the Next Leader (lay at 10) and Next PM (back at 12.5) markets on Betfair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.

    If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
    EC predicts that Peterborough is one of the BxP gains. So it looks like (1) Tory vote will hold up better than polls suggest and (2) Lib Dems are still capable of tactically voting Labour (or Tory).

    It's quite a relief to think that if the BxP have 26% in the opinion polls it DOESN'T mean they're going to win the next GE.
    The Peterborough result was actually very close to last weekend's Deltapoll of Labour 26%, Brexit Party 24%, Tories 20% and LDs 16%. So Deltapoll looks closer than Yougov or Opinium to where we are for now

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134936907358584834?s=20
    New gold standard!

    Deltapoll might be the new gold standard, but the UK certainly isn’t. If that is anywhere close to the next GE result, with the “winning” party getting about 25% of the vote, then it will be the laughing stock of the planet. Italy, here we come!
    What are you talking about, plenty of countries have winning parties on pretty low percentages. Another obsessed with being a laughing stock, it's like the blairites desperate for Corbyn to do badly in its transparent hope.
    Yes, plenty of countries have winning parties on low percentages; witness prime minister Löfven in Sweden: his party only got 28% of the vote.

    But try that in an FPTP electoral system. Stocks, laughter and rotten turnips will ensue.
    It might be enough for even Tories to understand that the system is broken
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Betting post for quick fingers. The Andrea Leadsom arb is back, between the Next Leader (lay at 10) and Next PM (back at 12.5) markets on Betfair.

    That's not an arb
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Just when you thought Jezza was losing his touch...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited June 2019
    I’d laid Brexit yesterday morning thinking it was a value loser. Always nice when such bets come home.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    Peterborough a great result for the Liberal Democrats because Labour won’t now feel the need to come out for a second referendum.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    Betting post for quick fingers. The Andrea Leadsom arb is back, between the Next Leader (lay at 10) and Next PM (back at 12.5) markets on Betfair.

    That's not an arb
    In what way, other than the remote chance the jobs go to different people?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840



    The members are excited about the idea of changing our economic policies, not a culture war over Brexit. So we stick with that position even at the risk of losing people who disagree.

    It is highly likely the members will tack a referendum onto those economic changes anyway in the conference so don't worry too much (if Labour not backing another referendum is something you worry about)

    I would point out though that Labour have voted for a referendum a few times already, the Labour leadership voting for the idea and whipping for the idea has not been enough to make it happen. In terms of actually getting another referendum Labour ruling out the idea of backing a deal without one doesn't actually get us that much closer.

    You need people who haven't backed another referendum to back one.

    I don't particularly disagree, there's not that much *practical* difference between Labour's current position and just backing a referendum. But that's what makes the weaseling all the weirder: It's not like there are loads of leavers out there who are thinking, "a referendum is a democratic abomination and these remainers are trying to steal brexit but Labour only support one on alternate tuesdays when they can't get their version of brexit so that's OK".

    As for a conference in the autumn I'm not convinced the government will hold out that long.
    TBH our position is arguably we are willing to compromise somewhere between a soft Brexit and another referendum. We voted for options along those lines, I think the idea our position is weaseling if we don't shorten our range of acceptable options down to another referendum only is unfair. We haven't done a great job of selling it but arguably the MPs on both sides fighting haven't helped there.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    I normally congratulate a new MP on winning a seat at a by-election, whichever the party. Standing for an election isn't something I'd want to do, and it takes a little bravery.

    In the case of Lisa Forbes, however, I'm not going to. Her social media posts aren't reflective of someone we should have in parliament. And I only hope that if, as she claims, she takes anti-Semitism training, then it's provided by someone other than Labour's official (non)-training.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Isn’t it better just to lay Andrea Leadsom on the next leader market? That’s what I’ve just done.
This discussion has been closed.