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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peterborough by-election betting – the final 12 hours

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peterborough by-election betting – the final 12 hours

Chart of Betfair exchange price movements from betdta.io

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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,171
    I went to bed so missed all this fun.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    Good to see a racist party defeated. Depressing to see a racist party win. For Peterborough read England at the next general election. In hundreds of constituencies there will be no good choices.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,541
    edited June 7
    May to officially step down as leader:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452

    Hoping that is good enough for Betfair, split infinitive and all ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,055
    Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.

    And another victory for Remain.....just!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    A wild night by the looks of it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768

    I went to bed so missed all this fun.

    I did not so am completely cream crackered and hoping nothing important comes up at work. Betfair's settler does seem to be enjoying a good night's sleep though, as the market is still open.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,630

    I went to bed so missed all this fun.

    @Casino_Royale in no fun in bed shocker !!!!!!!!!!!!!! :astonished:
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,162
    Well done Peterborough. Hopefully this will put to bed the notion that 70% of the country is screaming for a no-deal Brexit, which seems to have been much of media’s interpretation of the Euro results.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    Nigelb said:

    May to officially step down as leader:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452

    Hoping that is good enough for Betfair, split infinitive and all ?

    But remains acting leader. So she is still leader.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    Nigelb said:

    May to officially step down as leader:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452

    Hoping that is good enough for Betfair, split infinitive and all ?

    The ambiguity follows from a line midway through that report: Mrs May remains acting leader while the contest takes place.

    If I ran Betfair, I'd be thinking about voiding the market, especially as their Help Desk team has been reported to have given conflicting advice. As punters, we are basically betting on which way Betfair will jump rather than when Theresa May departs.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,376
    Enjoying my bragging rights from predicting a narrow Labour victory last night.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,783
    2016 redux!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,783

    Well done Peterborough. Hopefully this will put to bed the notion that 70% of the country is screaming for a no-deal Brexit, which seems to have been much of media’s interpretation of the Euro results.

    Closer to 50% ;)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    edited June 7
    Scott_P said:
    What ought to worry Pollard is that the opposite might be even worse, that antisemitism is kept hidden for a sniff of power.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,832
    On a scale of 1-10 how accurate were the polls, and what does it tell us about national polls...????? ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,055
    Scott_P said:
    Stephen Pollard talking out of his backside as usual starting with 'Our allies in Labour...' Since when has he ever done anything other than use any right wing vehicle open to him to discredit Labour since long before Corbyn. He's a complete humbug.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,973
    Good morning, everyone.

    Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,907
    Roger said:

    Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.

    And another victory for Remain.....just!

    'Just' is enough as Leave keep reminding us. Especially in FPTP elections.

    Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,421
    Scott_P said:
    Lamenting the fact that a party led by Farage didn't win from an anti racist position... Only hypocrites like Pollard can do that kind of thing with a straight face.

    Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,530
    Great betting opportunities during the early hours. My net gain overall was 70p (less 5% to Betfair).

    At least I didn't lose. I would have won more if my early 200/1 on the LibDems had won!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659

    Good morning, everyone.

    Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.

    @Casino_Royale @NickPalmer and I collectively agree on little but we all saw it as a good idea to oppose the Brexit party yesterday morning at the odds on offer.

    My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,298
    Roger said:

    Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.

    And another victory for Remain.....just!

    The new Peterborough MP apparently found it very easy to talk with racists and anti-Semites. She even commented that she enjoys reading such guff!

    Corbyn's Labour should be proud to have such a woman in their party. ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,171

    Good morning, everyone.

    Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.

    I just laid BXP.

    I knew their ground game would be shit.

    Their candidate admitted it on BBC news this morning.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,055

    Roger said:

    Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.

    And another victory for Remain.....just!

    'Just' is enough as Leave keep reminding us. Especially in FPTP elections.

    Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.
    Hopefully we've reached the high water mark for Farage and the the collapse is fast and humiliating. 'Slinking out of the backdoor' is a great start
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 900
    Perhaps Farage might change his mind on Brexit - the European elections seem to be the only thing he can win. Feel blessed to be spared his Rothmans grin all over the place this morning. And lovely to see TBP blaming it all on the wrong colour of voter - their true colours showing as expected.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,779
    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,298
    Interestingly, even if you added UKIP's vote to the BP's, then they still would not have won. In a seat where >62% voted to leave, there seems to be no fondness for a hard Brexit.

    All in all, a good show by Labour.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,530
    Adding the latest YouGov to the EMA (to smooth out noise) gives:

    Con 22.5%, Lab 26.6%, LD 17.1%, Brex 21.4%

    Con 193
    Lab 291
    LD 36
    Brex 54
    Grn 1
    PC 3
    SNP
    53
    NI 18

    Lab minority, 35 short of majority.

    Of the 24 LD gains, 2 are from Lab and 22 are from Con.
    of the 54 Brex gains, 7 are from Lab and 47 from Con.

    The Tories are being eaten from all sides. Labour gain 29 seats on 2017 in spite of 14% drop in share.

    Although the above predictions will be wrong, the basic underlying pattern is clear.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,510
    Something for everyone from Peterborough I think.

    BXP biggest ‘losers’ of the night but have shown they can attract substantial votes.

    Lib Dems continuing to improve their position.

    Labour will be delighted to hold this and this helps shore up Corbyns position.

    Tories will be pleased their vote didn’t collapse and shows they can potentially pull things back depending on the leadership change.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,741
    Why the swingback to BXP? (I didn’t stay up to watch)
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,162
    As
    IanB2 said:

    Why the swingback to BXP? (I didn’t stay up to watch)

    Just idiots driven by idiots speculating on Twitter
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    edited June 7
    Deleted in light of subsequent posts.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,298
    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,162
    edited June 7
    Excellent news for British politics generally, there is life in the old dog yet. Hope all parties take comfort in our ability to defeat Farage. FPTP is a different ball game.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,545

    Good morning, everyone.

    Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.

    @Casino_Royale @NickPalmer and I collectively agree on little but we all saw it as a good idea to oppose the Brexit party yesterday morning at the odds on offer.

    My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.
    Yes, though my predictions were wrong, the Labour ground game looked very efficient, so I put a tenner on Labour at 5.

    Good to see the grin wiped off Farage's ugly mug, hopefully infighting to start shortly in the BXP. Anti-semitic Corbynista not my taste but could be critical in a VONC.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    The good news is that we might get five minutes without wall to wall op-eds trumpeting the electoral brilliance of Nigel Farage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,360


    @Casino_Royale @NickPalmer and I collectively agree on little but we all saw it as a good idea to oppose the Brexit party yesterday morning at the odds on offer.

    My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.

    Don't forget me! I tipped Labour at 8. Smug city.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,421

    The good news is that we might get five minutes without wall to wall op-eds trumpeting the electoral brilliance of Nigel Farage.

    Killed a lot of stories about Corbyn and Farage journalists were going to write for months on end, perfectly timed by election.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    IanB2 said:

    Why the swingback to BXP? (I didn’t stay up to watch)

    Trading, cashing out, and naive momentum followers misled by the former; the arrival of Nigel Farage at the count would have further encouraged backers (and is evidence his team was confident early in the count).
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,526
    The show rolls onto B&R what are the current odds?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,545

    Scott_P said:
    What ought to worry Pollard is that the opposite might be even worse, that antisemitism is kept hidden for a sniff of power.
    It is undeniable that in some quarters a whiff of anti-semitism goes down well indeed.

    I think it is all priced in now. No one else will change their mind or vote over Labours anti-semitism problem.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    The really significant bit of the Peterborough result is that given the chance to vote for a No Deal Brexit a Leave constituency declined.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,995
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Stephen Pollard talking out of his backside as usual starting with 'Our allies in Labour...' Since when has he ever done anything other than use any right wing vehicle open to him to discredit Labour since long before Corbyn. He's a complete humbug.
    The new Labour MP should be suspended from the party whip pending an investigation. Anything else is a betrayal of the party's claim to be anti-racist.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,162

    On a scale of 1-10 how accurate were the polls, and what does it tell us about national polls...????? ;)

    Whatever they say, HYUFD will tell us they mean the country wants PM Farage.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,162
    edited June 7

    The good news is that we might get five minutes without wall to wall op-eds trumpeting the electoral brilliance of Nigel Farage.

    Killed a lot of stories about Corbyn and Farage journalists were going to write for months on end, perfectly timed by election.
    Corbyn owes Gordon Brown a lot. The old war horse worked hard and was not the albatross the Tories joked about.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,995

    Scott_P said:
    Lamenting the fact that a party led by Farage didn't win from an anti racist position... Only hypocrites like Pollard can do that kind of thing with a straight face.

    Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....
    And they don't care about the anti-semintism in their own ranks. Shameful.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,162

    So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?

    The ERG are already Brexit Party MPs in all but name.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    What ought to worry Pollard is that the opposite might be even worse, that antisemitism is kept hidden for a sniff of power.
    It is undeniable that in some quarters a whiff of anti-semitism goes down well indeed.

    I think it is all priced in now. No one else will change their mind or vote over Labours anti-semitism problem.
    I think the main effect, ironically perhaps, will be to kibosh Boris; at least, that is the way I have been betting.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,162

    So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?

    Does this make a Con BXP arrangement more likely?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,049

    So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?

    A vote for the Brexit Party is a vote for Corbyn...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,421
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lamenting the fact that a party led by Farage didn't win from an anti racist position... Only hypocrites like Pollard can do that kind of thing with a straight face.

    Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....
    And they don't care about the anti-semintism in their own ranks. Shameful.
    They don't believe our racist, xenophobic right wing media who amplify claims (many false or out of context) in order to boost those who follow their bigoted views.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,995
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    edited June 7
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    What ought to worry Pollard is that the opposite might be even worse, that antisemitism is kept hidden for a sniff of power.
    It is undeniable that in some quarters a whiff of anti-semitism goes down well indeed.

    I think it is all priced in now. No one else will change their mind or vote over Labours anti-semitism problem.

    Yep, that’s fair. Also worth mentioning that the Brexit party is led by someone who has openly endorsed and campaigned for white supremacists in Europe and the US, while the Tories are just about to make someone who has happily consorted with racists for years their leader. There were no good choices for the voters of Peterborough, so they were forced into making a judgement on the least worst choice.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,741
    So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,299

    Roger said:

    Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.

    And another victory for Remain.....just!

    'Just' is enough as Leave keep reminding us. Especially in FPTP elections.

    Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.
    "Mr Farage's silence was significant. He will be concerned that if his new party couldn't win here, where 61% of voters voted Leave in 2016, where can they win?

    Something to chew over next time is enjoying five-star roast beef and claret."
    Sky News
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,360

    Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.

    Nigel was pissed - in both the English and American sense of the word. Allegedly.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,779

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,116
    edited June 7
    IanB2 said:

    So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”

    The leadership is vacant from the moment she resigns. However, she continues to discharge the functions of party leader until a replacement is elected.

    The only Tory leader in the twentieth century who handed them over to somebody else - leaving aside Bonar Law and Anthony Eden who were both on sick leave at the time they resigned - was Edward Heath, who began the longest sulk in history by asking Robert Carr to act as leader until the conclusion of the leadership election.

    I would argue that she officially ceases to be leader today. Acting leader is not the same as leader.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,171

    So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?

    Many Conservatives will be breathing a sigh of relief.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,162
    edited June 7
    Farage on R4, sigh. Why do they interview losers like him? You lost Nige, crawl back under your rock for a bit.

    ‘Vote Tory, get Corbyn’. Rolls eyes.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    IanB2 said:

    So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”

    Trouble is, when she stands down, Theresa May stops being the leader and immediately becomes the acting leader, or in other words, the leader. I'd say the current price is a good one but only because it should be 3 or 4. We are betting on Betfair's whim, not on anything Theresa May does.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    kinabalu said:


    @Casino_Royale @NickPalmer and I collectively agree on little but we all saw it as a good idea to oppose the Brexit party yesterday morning at the odds on offer.

    My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.

    Don't forget me! I tipped Labour at 8. Smug city.
    Yes.

    Well done but this morning I am just relieved Farage has been humiliated and strangely fled the scene showing him up as a coward. I would however issue a word of warning to labour proclaiming this as a great victory when labour lost 17% of their vote

    The show moves on now to the leadership race and if anything I believe Boris's chance has improved after a reasonable conservative showing last night and he is probably the only conservative who can attack Farage and Corbyn with some success

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet you were happy to campaign on xenophobic lies to win a referendum. Hypocrite.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,298

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lamenting the fact that a party led by Farage didn't win from an anti racist position... Only hypocrites like Pollard can do that kind of thing with a straight face.

    Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....
    And they don't care about the anti-semintism in their own ranks. Shameful.
    They don't believe our racist, xenophobic right wing media who amplify claims (many false or out of context) in order to boost those who follow their bigoted views.
    LOL. What was 'out-of-context' or 'false' about the comments about Lisa Forbes social media usage?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Roger said:

    Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.

    And another victory for Remain.....just!

    'Just' is enough as Leave keep reminding us. Especially in FPTP elections.

    Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.
    "Mr Farage's silence was significant. He will be concerned that if his new party couldn't win here, where 61% of voters voted Leave in 2016, where can they win?

    Something to chew over next time is enjoying five-star roast beef and claret."
    Sky News
    Curtice said the result is in line with national polls
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”

    The leadership is vacant from the moment she resigns. However, she continues to discharge the functions of party leader until a replacement is elected.

    The only Tory leader in the twentieth century who handed them over to somebody else - leaving aside Bonar Law and Anthony Eden who were both on sick leave at the time they resigned - was Edward Heath, who began the longest sulk in history by asking Robert Carr to act as leader until the conclusion of the leadership election.

    I would argue that she officially ceases to be leader today. Acting leader is not the same as leader.
    I know that, you know that, Betfair does not. Insane how much money I assume we have all left on the table due to this.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”

    The leadership is vacant from the moment she resigns. However, she continues to discharge the functions of party leader until a replacement is elected.

    The only Tory leader in the twentieth century who handed them over to somebody else - leaving aside Bonar Law and Anthony Eden who were both on sick leave at the time they resigned - was Edward Heath, who began the longest sulk in history by asking Robert Carr to act as leader until the conclusion of the leadership election.

    I would argue that she officially ceases to be leader today. Acting leader is not the same as leader.
    You can argue that. However, for betting purposes, it is what Betfair decides that matters, not some higher truth.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768

    I went to bed so missed all this fun.

    I did not so am completely cream crackered and hoping nothing important comes up at work. Betfair's settler does seem to be enjoying a good night's sleep though, as the market is still open.
    Betfair has settled the Peterborough market.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,779

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet you were happy to campaign on xenophobic lies to win a referendum. Hypocrite.
    I feel like we've had this conversation a few times, Alastair.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet you were happy to campaign on xenophobic lies to win a referendum. Hypocrite.
    I feel like we've had this conversation a few times, Alastair.
    Yes, and you will never get a free pass to be hypocritical. Motes and beams, motes and beams.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,298
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    As I say above, it seems a similar descent as occurs in red-pilling. A slow descent into conspiracy theorism and easy answers where a particular individual or group is to blame.

    If loads of right-on people you generally agree with say, or agree with, guarded, carefully-worded borderline racist comments, those comments slowly becomes normalised. It is then easier to sink further down into the abyss and accept worse comments.

    And social media is full of little exclusive rooms that act as direct sinkholes into racism.

    (Needless to say, this works in many directions.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,116
    edited June 7

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.
    Yes.

    It's not quite correct to say the CIA 'helped to set up' Al-Qaeda. That was formed out of the mujahideen groups in Afghanistan, which in turn had been around since before the Soviet invasion. However, following the Soviet invasion the CIA funnelled a lot of money to them in order to maximise the damage and disruption to the Soviet puppet state. In fact Al Qaeda as an official organisation began when bin Laden's money began replacing this CIA money.

    A phrase about sowing winds and reaping whirlwinds springs to mind, but I think it's going a bit far to say they 'set it up.'
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,779

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.
    Yes, it is 'such a leap' - from the CIA backing what they saw as an anti-Soviet force to the idea that Israel would back an organisation that would like to wipe them out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392
    The real story is thr Conservative figure right? scratch that, the real story was me laying off my Labour to win bet yesterday.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,162
    Who are people who stuck with the Tories in Peterborough? Tory Remainers? Soft Brexiteers? Andrea Leadsom backers? :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.

    The choice in Peterborough was between a party led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with anti-Semites and one led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists. Those solely focusing on one of the two are not genuine anti-racists.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,116

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    As I say above, it seems a similar descent as occurs in red-pilling. A slow descent into conspiracy theorism and easy answers where a particular individual or group is to blame.

    If loads of right-on people you generally agree with say, or agree with, guarded, carefully-worded borderline racist comments, those comments slowly becomes normalised. It is then easier to sink further down into the abyss and accept worse comments.

    And social media is full of little exclusive rooms that act as direct sinkholes into racism.

    (Needless to say, this works in many directions.)
    Can we all agree that the average Peterborough MP is a loathsome racist twat, and leave it at that?

    It seems to be part of the job description.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392

    The good news is that we might get five minutes without wall to wall op-eds trumpeting the electoral brilliance of Nigel Farage.

    Shocking naivety from you there.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    ydoethur said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    As I say above, it seems a similar descent as occurs in red-pilling. A slow descent into conspiracy theorism and easy answers where a particular individual or group is to blame.

    If loads of right-on people you generally agree with say, or agree with, guarded, carefully-worded borderline racist comments, those comments slowly becomes normalised. It is then easier to sink further down into the abyss and accept worse comments.

    And social media is full of little exclusive rooms that act as direct sinkholes into racism.

    (Needless to say, this works in many directions.)
    Can we all agree that the average Peterborough MP is a loathsome racist twat, and leave it at that?

    It seems to be part of the job description.
    Tim, formerly of this parish, saw Peterborough as one of the constituencies cursed by its representatives of whatever party. I seem to recall Shrewsbury was on his list too.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,002
    IanB2 said:

    So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”

    Yes. Seems like the interpretation the exchange are making is that she is leader until a new leader takes over. So the bet is not on when she resigns, but on the betfair interpretation of their rules and whether it will go to a membership vote.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,768
    Bobby Smith received only five votes. Did anyone take the 4/6 from Shadsy that Smith would finish last?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    I trust everyone had a profitable evening 😀

    Another Jew hating MP though is bad news for the Uk - let’s hope that she is either ousted in 2022 or before hand.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,298

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.
    No, there really isn't. The allegations aren't being made to get to any underlying 'truth', but to spread hatred and defend the really evil people - ISIS themselves, and their supporters.

    It's insinuating that ISIS were not responsible for their actions: it was the responsibility of the evil Americans and Israelis (code for 'Jews'). Blame them, not ISIS.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878

    IanB2 said:

    So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”

    Yes. Seems like the interpretation the exchange are making is that she is leader until a new leader takes over. So the bet is not on when she resigns, but on the betfair interpretation of their rules and whether it will go to a membership vote.
    That and she is remaining acting leader. So she is still leader.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,256
    Ahem....
    Freggles said:

    I think Labour will win tomorrow. I just can't see people voting the same way for a Westminster seat as they do for Euros. I could be wrong but it seems like one of those times people get carried away with the narrative of big change.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2346857#Comment_2346857

    :smiley:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,907
    edited June 7

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.
    Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.
    'Be careful what you wish for' is a good basis for action. Especially when someone points out you might be being too clever by half.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392

    Who are people who stuck with the Tories in Peterborough? Tory Remainers? Soft Brexiteers? Andrea Leadsom backers? :)

    People who don't turn out at European elections?

    As ever, last month I think people got rather over excited at a low turn out election on a single issue with a single issue party standing.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 104
    Well the 20-30% LD tip turned out to be Baloney! Och well
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,779

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.

    TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.

    What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.

    It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
    At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.

    The choice in Peterborough was between a party led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with anti-Semites and one led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists. Those solely focusing on one of the two are not genuine anti-racists.

    Whatever Farage has said or done, at least there's nothing to suggest the BXP candidate is any kind of racist.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    I think last night shows that there are limits to the BP - one man band.

    Cons deliver Brexit they will win the next GE against Jew hating Labour.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,907
    In all the celebrations around D Day should we not recall that Rome fell to the Allies on June 4th 1944 and, after the Battles of Monte Cassino, the British, Americans and particularly the Poles were able to move further North up the 'leg' of Italy.
    The Allies were in Western Europe before D Day!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    Also boosts Corbyn in his stance against a second referendum ..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,055
    edited June 7
    This would have been one of the few by elections where I would have voted Labour. Though traditionally a Labour voter I'm just about old enough to remember the era Corbyn is trying to recreate and it's not a pretty one.

    But at a time when we have a seriously racist party in our midst and a nasty xenophobic one grabbing it's coat tails far from seeing Corbyn as a racist I see him as one of the few bastions standing against it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,769
    Well I must say that is quite unexpected. Probably doesn't make getting the deal through Parliament any easier. Probably keeps Corbyn a little more secure than he deserves. Probably helps the less frothy candidates in the Tory leadership race. Shows that my reservations about the value of a ground game were just plain wrong.
This discussion has been closed.