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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some analysis of the Tory leadership race and why the hardline

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some analysis of the Tory leadership race and why the hardline No Deal Brexiteers might end up struggling in the MP stage of voting

Friday leadership race update (using @GuidoFawkes totals):

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,184
    edited June 7
    Index0: For all his efforts it's a bit disappointing that Stewart hasn't made more headway.

    edit: (Now I've nabbed index0)
    Stewart is enormously impressive. Wise old man views on seemingly young legs - although he looks his wise-old-man age. His actual views are a bit ropey though - "citizen's councils"!? There's no sense there.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,815
    Is there a market for the final two? I'd suggest Boris v Raab would be a lay.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,308
    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,328
    That's quite interesting information, though I don't know that it is all that significant - a harder Brexiteer already has 50ish nominations, so with transfers from the already declared and just a few more is probably safe even if most of those who have not declared are ones who were May loyalists.

    And there's little difference between open no dealers and covert no dealers, hunting for things that may not exist as cover.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    Just watched Leadsom's leader video. 68 camera changes in 80 seconds.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,086
    Pulpstar said:

    Just watched Leadsom's leader video. 68 camera changes in 80 seconds.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,312
    Ken Clarke and/or Tracey Crouch leaving their declaration alarmingly late...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,941
    I’ve been unwinding a bit of my position on Stewart. I’m nibbling back on him at anything north of 40/1.

    The public poll is interesting. It’s not inconceivable he could make it to the penultimate or even final round as the alternative to Boris if Hunt and Gove continue to fall flat.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467
    Can someone please brief me as to whether Boris counts as a Deal or No Deal candidate? (And how would one be sure?)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,282
    tlg86 said:

    Is there a market for the final two? I'd suggest Boris v Raab would be a lay.

    There's one just put up on BFE, but when I looked this morning there was no money on it.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,535
    Think we're heading for Johnson versus Gove. Raab seems to have fallen out of the picture a bit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,367
    If every non-Bozo voter in round 1 keeps voting for non-Bozo candidates they can keep the buffoon out of the final 2.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    The truth is that it wasn't much better than informed guesswork then, and hasn't improved much since.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,164
    tlg86 said:

    Is there a market for the final two? I'd suggest Boris v Raab would be a lay.

    Yes, Betfair have a ‘final two’ market.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,941
    Pulpstar said:

    Just watched Leadsom's leader video. 68 camera changes in 80 seconds.

    She’s only declared one new MP today.

    I think we can conclude she’s struggling. If she had a plan to announce a secret batch she’d lined up, she’d have used it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,094

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    Stagg was neither Royal Navy or Army. He was a RAF Group Captain.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,367

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    The truth is that it wasn't much better than informed guesswork then, and hasn't improved much since.
    'Forecasting' that tomorrow will be the same as today is usually the most accurate strategy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,328

    If every non-Bozo voter in round 1 keeps voting for non-Bozo candidates they can keep the buffoon out of the final 2.

    Would you consider that likely? Peter the Punter raises the question of if Boris counts as a Deal or No Deal candidate, and whether people agree with me or not that he is a No Deal candidate by virtue of making promises he cannot keep and intending to leave no matter what at the end of October, he does have a lot more Leave MP declarations behind him than the others (bar Raab I think, by proportion at least) so if Gove is the Remainer's leaver, then Boris is the best option for other harder leavers if, as seems likely, no harder leaver can make the final two against (it seems) Gove or Hunt.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,184

    If every non-Bozo voter in round 1 keeps voting for non-Bozo candidates they can keep the buffoon out of the final 2.

    Clown-commentary avidly monitored. Not sure you're helping your argument by watching.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,096

    Pulpstar said:

    Just watched Leadsom's leader video. 68 camera changes in 80 seconds.

    It's not terrible. The hashtag is a bit pants.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467
    Artist said:

    Think we're heading for Johnson versus Gove. Raab seems to have fallen out of the picture a bit.

    He's fallen out of the betting picture, but the betting is peculiar. Hunt for example was way too long but has now shortened for no particular reason. The Leadsome peculiarity has been widely commented on here, and remains unexplained.

    I suspect the betting market in this event is about as reliable as it was for Peterborough.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,094

    Can someone please brief me as to whether Boris counts as a Deal or No Deal candidate? (And how would one be sure?)

    It depends who Boris is talking to and you certainly couldn't be sure of it from one hour to the next.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,308
    JackW said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    Stagg was neither Royal Navy or Army. He was a RAF Group Captain.
    Apologies! Group Captain Stagg.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,367
    Avoid looking like a twat by avoiding any references to Game of Thrones.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,646

    Ken Clarke and/or Tracey Crouch leaving their declaration alarmingly late...

    Beckett's most depressing work: "Waiting for Penny"

    Vladimir: at least the time is passing
    Estragon: it would have passed anyway...wait, what are you doing?
    Vladimir: (gets up, walks to the apartment next door). Knock knock Penny, knock knock Penny, knock knock Penny...

    (From "Beckett: the Sitcom Years", 2019, Oxford University Press)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,096
    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    Well just let people assume and stop with the ridiculous denials then, it's embarrassing.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    The truth is that it wasn't much better than informed guesswork then, and hasn't improved much since.
    'Forecasting' that tomorrow will be the same as today is usually the most accurate strategy.
    Christ. I hope not. Have you looked out of a window today?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,184
    JackW said:
    However the main tip has to be just watch it - it actually is worth it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    Well just let people assume and stop with the ridiculous denials then, it's embarrassing.
    Christ, What can I do? Fuck this shit. Outa here.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467
    edited June 7
    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:


    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.


    Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.
    Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

    I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

    Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.
    Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.
    I'm just ready to call bullshit for what it is, in person or on the internet. Then again, I'm not completely anonymous, I've met people from PB in real life.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    Can everyone stop calling Lord Byron's provenance into question :) ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,444
    Pulpstar said:

    Can everyone stop calling Lord Byron's provenance into question :) ?

    He’s actually Lord Lucan.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,941

    Artist said:

    Think we're heading for Johnson versus Gove. Raab seems to have fallen out of the picture a bit.

    He's fallen out of the betting picture, but the betting is peculiar. Hunt for example was way too long but has now shortened for no particular reason. The Leadsome peculiarity has been widely commented on here, and remains unexplained.

    I suspect the betting market in this event is about as reliable as it was for Peterborough.
    I’ve been laying Hunt today and topping up on Raab and Stewart.

    Raab will appeal the most credible of the Spartans. Floating voter Tory MPs - who are unconvinced by Johnson - will be intrigued by Stewart.

    I sense Gove has gone off the boil. Javid is going nowhere.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,941

    Artist said:

    Think we're heading for Johnson versus Gove. Raab seems to have fallen out of the picture a bit.

    He's fallen out of the betting picture, but the betting is peculiar. Hunt for example was way too long but has now shortened for no particular reason. The Leadsome peculiarity has been widely commented on here, and remains unexplained.

    I suspect the betting market in this event is about as reliable as it was for Peterborough.
    I’ve been laying Hunt today and topping up on Raab and Stewart.

    Raab will appeal the most credible of the Spartans. Floating voter Tory MPs - who are unconvinced by Johnson - will be intrigued by Stewart.

    I sense Gove has gone off the boil. Javid is going nowhere.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,695

    Artist said:

    Think we're heading for Johnson versus Gove. Raab seems to have fallen out of the picture a bit.

    He's fallen out of the betting picture, but the betting is peculiar. Hunt for example was way too long but has now shortened for no particular reason. The Leadsome peculiarity has been widely commented on here, and remains unexplained.

    I suspect the betting market in this event is about as reliable as it was for Peterborough.
    Not just the betting market.The predictions on here in the main was dire.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,672
    tlg86 said:

    Is there a market for the final two? I'd suggest Boris v Raab would be a lay.

    Yes there is:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159279442
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,094

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

    Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,648
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:


    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.


    Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.
    Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

    I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

    Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.
    Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.
    I'm just ready to call bullshit for what it is, in person or on the internet. Then again, I'm not completely anonymous, I've met people from PB in real life.
    So that's a Yes :smile:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,367
    Byronic said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    The truth is that it wasn't much better than informed guesswork then, and hasn't improved much since.
    'Forecasting' that tomorrow will be the same as today is usually the most accurate strategy.
    Christ. I hope not. Have you looked out of a window today?
    Yorkshire. As far as the eye can see.


    Bugger.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,184
    viewcode said:

    Ken Clarke and/or Tracey Crouch leaving their declaration alarmingly late...

    Beckett's most depressing work: "Waiting for Penny"

    Vladimir: at least the time is passing
    Estragon: it would have passed anyway...wait, what are you doing?
    Vladimir: (gets up, walks to the apartment next door). Knock knock Penny, knock knock Penny, knock knock Penny...

    (From "Beckett: the Sitcom Years", 2019, Oxford University Press)
    Why are you waiting?
    'For Godot'
    Oh.
    OH!
    Him?
    'Yes him'
    Not Corbyn then?
    'No Godot'
    Are you waiting for Corbyn too.
    'No'
    Why not?
    'No'
    I see.


  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 534
    Raab???? Good God almighty! Completely and utterly clueless. He is as thick as .... as... as his own neck.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467
    JackW said:

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

    Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....
    You guessed. :smile:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,715
    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,715

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

    I always used to get you and Peter From Putney mixed up back in the day! :D
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,094

    JackW said:

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

    Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....
    You guessed. :smile:
    Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 .... :smiley:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,697
    Andrea's video guy: "Which bits of stock footage should I use?"
    Andrea (not listening): "Yes."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    He made @rcs1000 delete his post history given how inflammatory it was to virtue signalling types. Wouldn't make sense for him to come back under the same screen name.

    Though I'm not convinced that Byron is SeanT he (or she) lacks something, the writing isn't as good and the put downs are nowhere near as good. It's a bit like someone put the cover of the a Tom Knox novel on a Dan Brown book.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,441

    Pulpstar said:

    Just watched Leadsom's leader video. 68 camera changes in 80 seconds.

    She’s only declared one new MP today.

    I think we can conclude she’s struggling. If she had a plan to announce a secret batch she’d lined up, she’d have used it.
    View is she had her chance and she botched it
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,716
    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    AFAICR, SeanT has admitted in the past to going onto websites (e.g. newspapers) and posting beneath the line 'in character' to provoke comment.

    But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467
    edited June 7
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

    Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....
    You guessed. :smile:
    Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 .... :smiley:
    So she was the lady with the red beard then? Should have guessed as much. :(
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    edited June 7
    Yorkcity said:

    Artist said:

    Think we're heading for Johnson versus Gove. Raab seems to have fallen out of the picture a bit.

    He's fallen out of the betting picture, but the betting is peculiar. Hunt for example was way too long but has now shortened for no particular reason. The Leadsome peculiarity has been widely commented on here, and remains unexplained.

    I suspect the betting market in this event is about as reliable as it was for Peterborough.
    Not just the betting market.The predictions on here in the main was dire.
    Err no, not really. The main conclusions here were correct. Labour was a very live dog and BXP was worth opposing at 1.2. Of course people felt bad about backing Labour at odds on with earlier bets, I noted noone's ever got rich backing Nige at by-elections...

    Here's an article ex this site that fits your "dire" definition: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/uk-politics/peterborough-by-election-betting-and-analysis-050619-171.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,441
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:


    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.


    Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.
    Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

    I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

    Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.
    Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.
    I'm just ready to call bullshit for what it is, in person or on the internet. Then again, I'm not completely anonymous, I've met people from PB in real life.
    So that's a Yes :smile:
    If you really think Bafin knows the slightest bit about regulation I’ve a bridge to sell you. The AMF is better but need to be educated and Euronext Paris is a dodgy playground for spivs
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467

    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    AFAICR, SeanT has admitted in the past to going onto websites (e.g. newspapers) and posting beneath the line 'in character' to provoke comment.

    But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...
    Sad though this may be, I can usually pick up who the poster is from reading the post without even looking at the name. This applies to some more than others, and to SeanT more than most because of his own special style. In fact I'd say only Ave It is more easily identifiable.

    Byronic is definitely not SeanT, though why it should bother anybody is beyond me.
  • PlankPlank Posts: 71
    I see the TMay party leader exit date markets are still up. So Betfair are definitely settling on her replacement date then?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,588

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    The truth is that it wasn't much better than informed guesswork then, and hasn't improved much since.
    Dear Peter, It's not exactly difficult to look at a weather chart and work out from it what tomorrow's weather is going to be like. You must've missed that geography lesson at school. But the internet is good for filling in those lacunae in one's knowledge, so go away and do some studying and stop trolling us.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,798
    This analysis seems a tad simplistic and rather glosses over the fact the reason more undeclared MPs are loyalists is simply because there were more loyalists to begin with.

    If we look at percentages then it is actually remarkably consistent.

    % undeclared:
    Overall total 43%
    43% of loyalists are undeclared (no different to overall figure).
    36% of MV2 switchers
    45% of MV3 switchers
    61% of Spartans
    50% of 2nd Referendum

    Most of those who've not declared haven't rebelled. But similarly most of those who have declared haven't rebelled. Most of the MPs haven't rebelled and the only cohort who have a lower undeclared percentage is the MV2 switchers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,694
    MaxPB said:

    I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

    Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.

    Both London and Vilnius are in the EU so I don’t see how investment in either of them supports your argument.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,094

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

    Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....
    You guessed. :smile:
    Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 .... :smiley:
    So she was the lady with the red beard then? Should have guessed as much. :(
    Indeed .... Mrs JackW enjoys her privacy. Her disguises are legendary and have included playing right back for Burnley FC in the 1950's, undertaking doppelganger work for Elton John and understudy for Dustin Hoffman in "Tootsie".
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,184
    Plank said:

    I see the TMay party leader exit date markets are still up. So Betfair are definitely settling on her replacement date then?

    Yes, and they're totally undermining themselves in doing so.

    I've complained.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,367

    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    AFAICR, SeanT has admitted in the past to going onto websites (e.g. newspapers) and posting beneath the line 'in character' to provoke comment.

    But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...
    Sad though this may be, I can usually pick up who the poster is from reading the post without even looking at the name. This applies to some more than others, and to SeanT more than most because of his own special style. In fact I'd say only Ave It is more easily identifiable.

    Byronic is definitely not SeanT, though why it should bother anybody is beyond me.
    I make a real effort to use a different writing style for each of my six PB identities...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

    Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....
    You guessed. :smile:
    Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 .... :smiley:
    So she was the lady with the red beard then? Should have guessed as much. :(
    Indeed .... Mrs JackW enjoys her privacy. Her disguises are legendary and have included playing right back for Burnley FC in the 1950's, undertaking doppelganger work for Elton John and understudy for Dustin Hoffman in "Tootsie".
    You are a cad, Sir. Fancy letting the world know the Memsahib was once associated with Burnley. Shame on you. :(
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,798
    Due to the three line whip on the Meaningful Vote, "MV1 Loyalists" are not a homogenous group and can probably be broken down into three categories.

    Some will be those who want a soft Brexit like May negotiated.
    Some will want Brexit and be prepared to endorse and Brexit deal so long as we leave.
    Some will be careerists who care more about being loyal and seeing their own career rewarded than what type of Brexit we have.

    It is interesting to note that Boris is picking up a similar proportion of "loyalists" as he is picking up "MV3 switchers". How much of this is careerists who think they can see which way the wind is blowing and want to further their own career?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,697
    Combining Wikipedia and Guido, the figures are (including candidates):

    GOVE 33
    GYIMAH 4
    HANCOCK 13
    HARPER 7
    HUNT 33
    JAVID 17
    JOHNSON 50
    LEADSOM 5
    McVEY 6
    RAAB 24
    STEWART 6

    Declared 198/313 (63.3%)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,863
    I obviously missed this:



    CHUK: 0%. That went well.

    Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.

    Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,444

    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    AFAICR, SeanT has admitted in the past to going onto websites (e.g. newspapers) and posting beneath the line 'in character' to provoke comment.

    But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...
    Sad though this may be, I can usually pick up who the poster is from reading the post without even looking at the name. This applies to some more than others, and to SeanT more than most because of his own special style. In fact I'd say only Ave It is more easily identifiable.

    Byronic is definitely not SeanT, though why it should bother anybody is beyond me.
    I make a real effort to use a different writing style for each of my six PB identities...
    Ah, the identity of Mike Smithson is finally revealed!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,798
    Omnium said:

    Plank said:

    I see the TMay party leader exit date markets are still up. So Betfair are definitely settling on her replacement date then?

    Yes, and they're totally undermining themselves in doing so.

    I've complained.

    Why are they undermining themselves?

    If they believe that May is still leader, as they seem to - and as seems logical to me - then surely the market remains open.

    If they closed the market but then didn't pay out, that would surely undermine them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,648
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:


    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.


    Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.
    Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

    I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

    Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.
    Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.
    I'm just ready to call bullshit for what it is, in person or on the internet. Then again, I'm not completely anonymous, I've met people from PB in real life.
    So that's a Yes :smile:
    If you really think Bafin knows the slightest bit about regulation I’ve a bridge to sell you. The AMF is better but need to be educated and Euronext Paris is a dodgy playground for spivs
    What I do know is the Banque de France is throwing its regulatory weight around, which it wasn't it so much before and the UK PRA, which tended to lead on regulation so others would follow isn't so much any more. Whether any of the regulation makes any sense or is effective is another matter, and somewhat irrelevant to financial institutions. You need to be compliant.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,040

    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    AFAICR, SeanT has admitted in the past to going onto websites (e.g. newspapers) and posting beneath the line 'in character' to provoke comment.

    But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...
    Sad though this may be, I can usually pick up who the poster is from reading the post without even looking at the name. This applies to some more than others, and to SeanT more than most because of his own special style. In fact I'd say only Ave It is more easily identifiable.

    Byronic is definitely not SeanT, though why it should bother anybody is beyond me.
    I make a real effort to use a different writing style for each of my six PB identities...
    I’ve never been brave enough to claim a writing style.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,224

    I obviously missed this:



    CHUK: 0%. That went well.

    As expected, the 24% figure for the LDs was a huge outlier though it was enjoyable for a while. OTOH, I'm sitting here disappointed at a poll rating of 20% when six months ago most LDs would have been more than euphoric with such a poll.

    A solid lead for TBP but today's coverage not so positive so we'll see.

    I make it an 18.5% swing from Conservative to LD by the way which would be interesting.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,901

    JackW said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    Stagg was neither Royal Navy or Army. He was a RAF Group Captain.
    Apologies! Group Captain Stagg.
    Actually a civilian, given that rank to appease the rank conscious Yanks in 1943.

  • mattmatt Posts: 2,905

    I obviously missed this:



    CHUK: 0%. That went well.

    Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.

    Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?

    I wouldn’t worry. It’s been Labsplained on here that the mass of Labour MPs would exercise effective control over Corbyn and the SWP infiltrators. Because the past is no guide to the future, or something.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,357

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    The truth is that it wasn't much better than informed guesswork then, and hasn't improved much since.
    'Forecasting' that tomorrow will be the same as today is usually the most accurate strategy.
    The trick is knowing when it isn't. Weather forecasts have improved in accuracy tremendously over the last few decades, but Southam didn't understand the forecast he was quoting.

    It's not unusual for a block over Scandinavia to lead to more rain to the west of it. It's what happened in the record wet winter of 2014.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467
    Dadge said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    The truth is that it wasn't much better than informed guesswork then, and hasn't improved much since.
    Dear Peter, It's not exactly difficult to look at a weather chart and work out from it what tomorrow's weather is going to be like. You must've missed that geography lesson at school. But the internet is good for filling in those lacunae in one's knowledge, so go away and do some studying and stop trolling us.
    That's not the point though, Dadge. When I last looked at some decent statistics the accuracy rate for professional forecasters was about 78%. That sounds reasonable, but appears less so when you appreciate that if you simply guess every day that it won't rain tomorrow you will be right about 70% of the time. Is the extra 8% worth all the effort?

    And is there anything wrong with asking forecasters to show their results?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,441
    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    Now he's a big shot in Hollywood he’s wary of saying something he regrets.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,094

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Byronic said:

    Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

    I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

    Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

    Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

    *I did say I have lurked awhile

    It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age. :)

    Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....
    You guessed. :smile:
    Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 .... :smiley:
    So she was the lady with the red beard then? Should have guessed as much. :(
    Indeed .... Mrs JackW enjoys her privacy. Her disguises are legendary and have included playing right back for Burnley FC in the 1950's, undertaking doppelganger work for Elton John and understudy for Dustin Hoffman in "Tootsie".
    You are a cad, Sir. Fancy letting the world know the Memsahib was once associated with Burnley. Shame on you. :(
    Mrs JackW was on loan from Queen of the South.

    I might add that she has an interest in the Conservative leadership race being 35 Tory MP's in total. She has however endorsed only eight candidates for a total of 19 votes and is likely to remain undeclared for seven votes.

    If feeling especially bewildered and out of sorts Mrs JackW takes on the mantle of 4 members of the ERG - It's an ugly sight !!

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,716
    Foxy said:

    JackW said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
    Stagg was neither Royal Navy or Army. He was a RAF Group Captain.
    Apologies! Group Captain Stagg.
    Actually a civilian, given that rank to appease the rank conscious Yanks in 1943.

    A while back we went to see the play 'Pressure', which told the story:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_(play)

    I recall it was quite good.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    It's our last night in Vilnius, I've got the company gold card, there are about 7 of us left here and I'm easily the most senior. :lol:
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,863
    matt said:

    I obviously missed this:



    CHUK: 0%. That went well.

    Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.

    Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?

    I wouldn’t worry. It’s been Labsplained on here that the mass of Labour MPs would exercise effective control over Corbyn and the SWP infiltrators. Because the past is no guide to the future, or something.
    So, as I was saying, how should one prepare best for the reduction of the country to a Venezuelan level of ruin? I'm doing my best at the moment to get fit so I'm more likely to be predator than prey if the time comes when we start killing and eating each other, but any other tips would be appreciated.

    (And yes, I have already considered emigration, but I'm too old and lacking in the necessary niche skills, and besides I'm not prepared to abandon the aged parents to die.)
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467

    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    AFAICR, SeanT has admitted in the past to going onto websites (e.g. newspapers) and posting beneath the line 'in character' to provoke comment.

    But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...
    Sad though this may be, I can usually pick up who the poster is from reading the post without even looking at the name. This applies to some more than others, and to SeanT more than most because of his own special style. In fact I'd say only Ave It is more easily identifiable.

    Byronic is definitely not SeanT, though why it should bother anybody is beyond me.
    I make a real effort to use a different writing style for each of my six PB identities...
    I’ve never been brave enough to claim a writing style.
    Believe it or not, Alastair, you are one of the easier 'picks'.

    Other easy picks include David Herdson, Richard Nabavi, Sunil, Cyclefree and of course OGH!
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,523
    Charles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

    Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

    Now he's a big shot in Hollywood he’s wary of saying something he regrets.
    Did he get his film deal?
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 97
    Don't think it'll be much of a war. Sturgeon will be on the phone to Penny and she'll be using the might of the Royal Navy to throw around a few Irish trawlers and a couple of Irish coast guard vessels. It's strange to think that Nicola is against big nations bullying little ones but she seems happy to use the power of the United Kingdom to enforce this.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,798

    Due to the three line whip on the Meaningful Vote, "MV1 Loyalists" are not a homogenous group and can probably be broken down into three categories.

    Some will be those who want a soft Brexit like May negotiated.
    Some will want Brexit and be prepared to endorse and Brexit deal so long as we leave.
    Some will be careerists who care more about being loyal and seeing their own career rewarded than what type of Brexit we have.

    It is interesting to note that Boris is picking up a similar proportion of "loyalists" as he is picking up "MV3 switchers". How much of this is careerists who think they can see which way the wind is blowing and want to further their own career?

    Sorry to quote my own post but just as an addendum, the careerists seeking to be rewarded could explain why Johnson is doing so well with junior minister loyalists. These could be MPs who wanted to stay loyal to May to further their own career and want to be on the "winning" side here for the same reason.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,442
    The most subtly enigmatic poster, and by some measure, is Malcolmg
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,960

    Ken Clarke and/or Tracey Crouch leaving their declaration alarmingly late...

    Ken Clarke has endorsed Rory Stewart.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,694
    Kate Hoey spins the Peterborough result:

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,441

    I obviously missed this:



    CHUK: 0%. That went well.

    Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.

    Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?

    Loo paper
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 347
    I have never seen a single second of it but I believe Stewart Lee refers to it as "Peter Stringfellow's Lord of the Rings," or "Bilbo Baggins down the Spearmint Rhino," which I thought was funny.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,164
    MaxPB said:

    It's our last night in Vilnius, I've got the company gold card, there are about 7 of us left here and I'm easily the most senior. :lol:

    Sh1t happens. I’m sure you can find somewhere with ladies dancing that will give you a receipt saying ‘meals’ to match your credit card charges.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,960

    matt said:

    I obviously missed this:



    CHUK: 0%. That went well.

    Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.

    Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?

    I wouldn’t worry. It’s been Labsplained on here that the mass of Labour MPs would exercise effective control over Corbyn and the SWP infiltrators. Because the past is no guide to the future, or something.
    So, as I was saying, how should one prepare best for the reduction of the country to a Venezuelan level of ruin? I'm doing my best at the moment to get fit so I'm more likely to be predator than prey if the time comes when we start killing and eating each other, but any other tips would be appreciated.

    (And yes, I have already considered emigration, but I'm too old and lacking in the necessary niche skills, and besides I'm not prepared to abandon the aged parents to die.)
    Come to the Lake District: lots of sheep and blackberries in the hedges, plenty of apple and plum trees, lakes to wash in and guns to fight off townies......
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,863
    RH1992 said:

    Don't think it'll be much of a war. Sturgeon will be on the phone to Penny and she'll be using the might of the Royal Navy to throw around a few Irish trawlers and a couple of Irish coast guard vessels. It's strange to think that Nicola is against big nations bullying little ones but she seems happy to use the power of the United Kingdom to enforce this.
    Or England, in an unexpected move, could side with Ireland and declare war on Scotland instead. That would make things more interesting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,561
    Best things about GOT:

    “Lannisters always pay their debts”. A brilliant threat of multiple applications.

    Starks: “Winter is coming “. Equally applicable. Prepare for the worst.

    Basically anything Tyrion Lannister said. Best character by a distance.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    edited June 7
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's our last night in Vilnius, I've got the company gold card, there are about 7 of us left here and I'm easily the most senior. :lol:

    Sh1t happens. I’m sure you can find somewhere with ladies dancing that will give you a receipt saying ‘meals’ to match your credit card charges.
    That's not the worry, it's a company expensed night out in eastern Europe with a bunch of juniors and associates that has me extremely worried for my liver (and tomorrow's flight).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,467
    JohnO said:

    The most subtly enigmatic poster, and by some measure, is Malcolmg

    The Rab C Nesbitt of PB.com.
This discussion has been closed.