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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    justin124 said:

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Is Boris going? I thought his team didn't like the idea.
    I hope the contenders graciously decline the invitations extended to them. Basically tell the Broadcasters to get stuffed - nothing to do with them.
    Why do you want it silenced.

    Believe you me the broadcasters will not let it drop and neither will the two candidates. And to add to your woe there will be several debates between the two on the media
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    If Gove and Johnson knock each other out, Hunt probably stands a decent chance of coming through the middle. The worst case scenario would be if Raab ends up in the run off against a 'Remainer'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Streeter said:

    “We were in partnership with Super Deal tyres but the Brexit deal ruined that.“

    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1137464227352993792?s=21

    Why the fuck are we doing this?

    Because enough people were persuaded their problems were caused by Europe when they really aren't.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    If Gove and Johnson knock each other out, Hunt probably stands a decent chance of coming through the middle. The worst case scenario would be if Raab ends up in the run off against a 'Remainer'.

    Shoot me now.

    I see Leadsom is finally starting to drift outwards
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    alex. said:

    Has Jo Johnson made any comments on the leadership election yet?

    Wikipedia has him down as a Boris supporter.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    dixiedean said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:
    Has self-styled 'hard man' Steve Baker lost his bottle ?

    If he's lucky Mark Francois will never talk to him again.
    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I wonder who among his backers will be the first to say how surprised they are he is going down a particular route later.
    Boris intends to become leader of the Conservative Party. And then PM. What comes next is mere detail to him.
    I disagree. Johnson is thinking ahead. He expects to be PM. Brexit offers a narrow chance of success for him and October is only a few months away. He has decided No Deal is the best outcome for him, but he needs the EU to do the dirty work for him.
    No Deal is the best way for him to ensure the members vote. A "narrow chance of success" does not encompass a No Deal scenario. He's an intelligent guy. He'll have seen the impact assessments.
    The idea that there will be a long lasting, popular and successful PM reign under such circumstances is for the birds, however much Johnny Foreigner is scapegoated.
    He delivers No Deal Brexit on November 1st and can blame the EU for it. That hopefully deals with the Farage issue. At that point who else is going to take over from him?

    I think Johnson has this worked out. It's not success guaranteed but the alternatives are failure guaranteed. That's a good enough reason for him to go down this route.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    That's a crazy idea of Gove's to abolish VAT. Of all taxes VAT is the cleanest and most efficient. It raises huge sums and the collection costs are negligible. It's a thing of beauty, really, in a way. If there were annual awards in this area VAT would pick up Tax Of The Year every time. It would be the Ant n Dec of the fiscal world.

    The one flaw with VAT is that it's regressive. It is levied at the same rate on everybody regardless of their financial circumstances. This means that the millionaire will pay the same for something as the person without two cents to rub together. Not just on small items but on everything. A top of the range white good, for example, somebody who is flat broke will have to pay the same aggregate amount to acquire it as Gary Lineker. That is wrong, but there is no way around it without losing the USP of the tax - its essential simplicity.
  • Which candidates have committed to scrapping HS2? I would like it gone, very gone.

    Most of them.

    Completely idiotic. Badly needed. This country can't build anything these days unless it is within the London catchment area.
    As I think we've established, the London catchment area is what the whole project is aimed at augmenting. Investment in rail is needed. HS2 is not it.
    and yet ALL northern councils, ALL northern mayor and ALL northern Chambers of Commerce support HS2.

    Maybe those down south know what's best for us up north.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

    The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.
    Rule 1: remainer Tories have no guts. They'll fold faster than paper deckchairs.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019

    AndyJS said:

    "The MP for a primary school facing demonstrations over LGBT equality teaching has been criticised by party colleagues after telling campaigners "you're right".

    In a video circulated on social media, Roger Godsiff, MP for Birmingham Hall Green, also told protesters they had a "just cause"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48569173

    "Labour's appalling agenda, encouraging the teaching of homosexuality in schools, and all the rest of it."
    - Boris, in The Spectator, 15 April 2000
    The Spectator archive is very useful. It goes back to 1863 or thereabouts IIRC. The Times used to have a similar free archive until about 5 years ago when they put it behind a paywall.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    If Gove and Johnson knock each other out, Hunt probably stands a decent chance of coming through the middle. The worst case scenario would be if Raab ends up in the run off against a 'Remainer'.

    I can see Ruthie switching her support to Hunt when Sajid gets knocked out. Expect a No Section 30 from Hunt soon.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    If Gove and Johnson knock each other out, Hunt probably stands a decent chance of coming through the middle. The worst case scenario would be if Raab ends up in the run off against a 'Remainer'.

    The Sunday papers will not make happy breakfast table reading for Andrea Leadsom layers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    nico67 said:

    Let’s say even if by some miracle Bozo managed to negotiate a new deal there’s still not enough time to ratify that so he’s lying about the October deadline .

    "If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure."
    - Boris, in The Telegraph, 12 May 2013
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kinabalu said:

    That's a crazy idea of Gove's to abolish VAT. Of all taxes VAT is the cleanest and most efficient. It raises huge sums and the collection costs are negligible. It's a thing of beauty, really, in a way. If there were annual awards in this area VAT would pick up Tax Of The Year every time. It would be the Ant n Dec of the fiscal world.

    The one flaw with VAT is that it's regressive. It is levied at the same rate on everybody regardless of their financial circumstances. This means that the millionaire will pay the same for something as the person without two cents to rub together. Not just on small items but on everything. A top of the range white good, for example, somebody who is flat broke will have to pay the same aggregate amount to acquire it as Gary Lineker. That is wrong, but there is no way around it without losing the USP of the tax - its essential simplicity.

    Watching the news with my dad and he said exactly the same thing: a crazy idea.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks like game over for Gove .

    That’s a horrific front page for him , not sure he can recover from that .
    Brutal.

    True professionals are at work on this one. Can't think whose team they work for.
    Revenge is a dish best gorged upon.....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Perhaps a wideranging set of agreements in one package for withdrawal. A Withdrawal Agreement, in fact.

    Indeed. Key to it being a Withdrawal Agreement that we want. Rather than just this is what you get and that's it.
    Unfortunately, the Withdrawal Agreement is the agreement that we want: May specifically asked for it, then asked for the backstop to be extended. The problem arose when Parliament then rejected it.

    This is a point I need to emphasise because language has become almost entirely disconnected from facts wrt Brexit. The EU has offered us (more than once?) a super Canada-type deal which the UK turned down. The WA is there because we asked for it.

    May is going and she is not the UK. That May asked for it is irrelevant the second she is gone.

    If the EU is happy to offer us a super Canada type deal then great PM Boris should be able to agree that.
    You are correct: he is leaving the Premiership and when she does she stops being the UK (in terms of treaty negotiation).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    I am really not sure what Boris is up to. I think that there is a perception that May conceded a lot of ground and money without getting anything in return but even if that were true it is surely too late to do much about it. The priority now is surely to deliver Brexit with as little disruption as possible. That’s going to be hard enough. It was beyond May.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    And I wonder how many are claiming they will vote for some other MP, but will vote for Boris because he looks like their only chance to stay an MP?
    Their chances are probably slim come what may, but a government that collapses at the first hurdle won’t help them any,
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2019

    kle4 said:

    Andrea Leadsom has just ruined cannabis for so many people. On a more serious note, so much stupid shit is talked about drugs. Alcohol is a much more destructive drug than most of the stuff people tie themselves in knots about, and nobody has a more fucked up relationship with drink than MPs and the meejia. I have absolutely no problem with Michael Gove doing coke a few times. I do have a problem with him robbing my children of their right to live, love and work across a continent of 350 million people.

    Nobody was robbed of anything, there was a vote, which can and might well be reversed, but even if it wasn't there was no robbing, unless you think anything that ever happens after a vote is robbing those who did not have a vote, or that the votes of young people are worth more. You undermine every point you made with that childish remark.
    That's me telt!
    They had something taken from them against their will. I call that robbed. But I will sit on the naughty step if you want me to.
    People have things taken from them against their will every election time. And we haven't left the EU yet and may well not ever do so. I fail to see the connection with robbery. There's no need to sit on the naughty step, and my opinion is just my opinion, but even as someone who thinks we do now need to remain because the price of leaving to the country is too high, people bemoaning how the youth have been robbed is something I personally find hugely unpersuasive, because the youth not getting their way is not in itself a flawed outcome from a vote.

    Those who voted had a choice and made it, and 'think of the children' has long been a staple of lazy arguments, to the point the Simpsons of all people have been making fun of it for decades. If we leave, the children born today might not even want to rejoin (though personally I think there would be a strong movement to do so), and what of their children, yet the teenagers and pre-teens of today are to be sobbed over? Will you feel the need to yell at the then grown up people for not minding they are missing out? If the young people at that point find they can get about just fine or with only minimal disruption, will you feel the need to apologise for suggesting they had been robbed?

    Perhaps I have a flinty coal for a heart, but as hard a decision it was, and one I feel I made the wrong choice in, on reflection, being sad about young people, who might think any manner of things in the future, still remains a very low factor for me.

    It's trite, but while obviously we do have to think of the children, over egging that is, to me, pretty childish, yes. Particularly when it makes a matter of political choice dependent on acceptance from a minority, estimating what they would think about it if it were to happen.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    alex. said:

    Has Jo Johnson made any comments on the leadership election yet?

    Yes he is supporting his brother.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    If Gove and Johnson knock each other out, Hunt probably stands a decent chance of coming through the middle. The worst case scenario would be if Raab ends up in the run off against a 'Remainer'.

    Boris is looking nailed on for last two
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    Let’s say even if by some miracle Bozo managed to negotiate a new deal there’s still not enough time to ratify that so he’s lying about the October deadline .

    There are 5 months left before October. Had May's deal passed on the 2nd MV on 12 March then there wasn't going to be an extension. So there is time.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    valleyboy said:

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Not in my house.
    nor mine
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    @FF43:

    It doesn't matter whether there is some objective obligation and how much. The point is Johnson is trashing all negotiation with the EU, including stuff he has agreed in principle. I don't think this is casual posturing. If it's part of a calculation, and I think it is, it suggests Johnson actually wants the EU to throw is out with No Deal in October and not offer an extension. Everything else follows from there.

    @dixiedean:

    I get what you are arguing, but his Party are 3rd or possibly 4th in the polls, 3 years and counting from an election.
    Does he really think he can No Deal and win from there, blaming the EU for all the disruption? Cos I'd like some of what he's on if that's his calculation.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks like game over for Gove .

    That’s a horrific front page for him , not sure he can recover from that .
    Brutal.

    True professionals are at work on this one. Can't think whose team they work for.
    Good news the hypocrite getting his just desserts.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks like game over for Gove .

    That’s a horrific front page for him , not sure he can recover from that .
    Brutal.

    True professionals are at work on this one. Can't think whose team they work for.
    And that picture on the Beeb front page makes it looks like he has progressed to crystal meth.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

    The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.
    Rule 1: remainer Tories have no guts. They'll fold faster than paper deckchairs.
    If you’re going to be deselected anyway what do you have to lose .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited June 2019
    malcolmg said:

    valleyboy said:

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Not in my house.
    nor mine
    Love your avatar Malc and sure you will have a watch out of curiosity
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Had May's deal passed on the 2nd MV on 12 March then there wasn't going to be an extension.

    Just because TMay says something doesn't mean it's true.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429
    edited June 2019

    Very interesting speech by Lord Ashcroft on the causes of Trump and Brexit.

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/06/candidates-are-supposed-to-pay-attention-to-the-voters-backstory-not-the-other-way-round-my-e2-summit-speech/

    The key appears based on graphs based on security/diversity.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2019
    dixiedean said:

    @FF43:

    It doesn't matter whether there is some objective obligation and how much. The point is Johnson is trashing all negotiation with the EU, including stuff he has agreed in principle. I don't think this is casual posturing. If it's part of a calculation, and I think it is, it suggests Johnson actually wants the EU to throw is out with No Deal in October and not offer an extension. Everything else follows from there.

    @dixiedean:

    I think he thinks he at least has a chance at winning, or at least preserving as much of the Tory vote as possible, particularly if it is done quickly before a lot of pain hits (something Tsipras in Greece did years back).

    But yes, comments which trash things that have been agreed in principle before must be very deliberate.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    malcolmg said:

    valleyboy said:

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Not in my house.
    nor mine
    Love your avatar Malc and sure you will have a watch out of curiosity
    Cheers G
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    AndyJS said:
    Is the Leadsom Whale the guy who was fired from JP Morgan?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Had May's deal passed on the 2nd MV on 12 March then there wasn't going to be an extension.

    Just because TMay says something doesn't mean it's true.
    Not is not the point being made. Had MV2 passed we would be out of the EU
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    Has Jo Johnson made any comments on the leadership election yet?

    Yes he is supporting his brother.
    So much for his principled opposition to Brexit.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Perhaps a wideranging set of agreements in one package for withdrawal. A Withdrawal Agreement, in fact.

    Indeed. Key to it being a Withdrawal Agreement that we want. Rather than just this is what you get and that's it.
    Unfortunately, the Withdrawal Agreement is the agreement that we want: May specifically asked for it, then asked for the backstop to be extended. The problem arose when Parliament then rejected it.

    This is a point I need to emphasise because language has become almost entirely disconnected from facts wrt Brexit. The EU has offered us (more than once?) a super Canada-type deal which the UK turned down. The WA is there because we asked for it.

    May is going and she is not the UK. That May asked for it is irrelevant the second she is gone.

    If the EU is happy to offer us a super Canada type deal then great PM Boris should be able to agree that.
    You are correct: he is leaving the Premiership and when she does she stops being the UK (in terms of treaty negotiation).
    May is "she", not "he". Fat fingers, my bad.

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019

    Gove clearly in a post-marching powder-snorting binge panic.

    Tells Telegraph he wants to scrap VAT (which the paper appears to claim is only there because of the EU (er, Geoff Howe anyone???)).

    And HS2 will be gone.

    When did Geoffrey Howe introduce it?
    He didn’t. VAT was introduced in April 1973 as a requirement of joining the Common market. So it’s technically correct it is linked to our EU membership.

    We did have ‘purchase tax’ before joining but not VAT but that was not charged at the point of sale to consumers but directly on manufacturers and suppliers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    edit
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Let’s say even if by some miracle Bozo managed to negotiate a new deal there’s still not enough time to ratify that so he’s lying about the October deadline .

    There are 5 months left before October. Had May's deal passed on the 2nd MV on 12 March then there wasn't going to be an extension. So there is time.
    12 March gave two weeks to get it ratified . No chance . The EU WA took 50 sitting days to get through both houses .

    The WAIB even without the backstop is much bigger . There’s also a raft of other legislation like trade and immigration , even in a no deal you need legislation.

    May avoided bringing that back for fear of amendments . Bozo and the rest are just lying , what’s new !
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited June 2019

    malcolmg said:

    valleyboy said:

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Not in my house.
    nor mine
    Love your avatar Malc and sure you will have a watch out of curiosity
    He can always chuck turnips at the screen :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Someone's trying to push Gove's price out in the markets now to make him look like a loser alongside the news.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    alex. said:

    Has Jo Johnson made any comments on the leadership election yet?

    Yes he is supporting his brother.
    Makes no sense given his positions on Brexit.

    If Gove and Johnson knock each other out, Hunt probably stands a decent chance of coming through the middle. The worst case scenario would be if Raab ends up in the run off against a 'Remainer'.

    Boris is looking nailed on for last two
    And thus, the leadership.
    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks like game over for Gove .

    That’s a horrific front page for him , not sure he can recover from that .
    Well, the membership love one known hypocrite, we know that for certain, but he seems able to get away with a lot of things others are not.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

    The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.
    Rule 1: remainer Tories have no guts. They'll fold faster than paper deckchairs.
    If you’re going to be deselected anyway what do you have to lose .
    They lose their job. Immediately.

    If there's no early election they keep their jobs for 3 more years.
    If they delay pulling the plug on Boris they keep it for a few more months.
    If they do it immediately it is game over immediately.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    valleyboy said:

    The tv debates between the final two should be box office

    Not in my house.
    nor mine
    Love your avatar Malc and sure you will have a watch out of curiosity
    Cheers G
    My Canadian daughter in law on our trip to Lossiemouth last year refused to leave Scotland without a selfie of a 'Heilan Coo' and after much seeking she succeeded and was over the moon about it
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Someone's trying to push Gove's price out in the markets now to make him look like a loser alongside the news.

    Or people are betting on the news?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I wonder whether Gove might go rogue if he gets stuffed by this cocaine story .

    Could just try and take down some others .
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Has Jo Johnson made any comments on the leadership election yet?

    Yes he is supporting his brother.
    So much for his principled opposition to Brexit.
    It's the Johnson family interpretation of "principle" (or should that be "principal") wot does it.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    nico67 said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

    The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.
    Rule 1: remainer Tories have no guts. They'll fold faster than paper deckchairs.
    If you’re going to be deselected anyway what do you have to lose .
    They lose their job. Immediately.

    If there's no early election they keep their jobs for 3 more years.
    If they delay pulling the plug on Boris they keep it for a few more months.
    If they do it immediately it is game over immediately.
    Or maybe they fancy roles in a post Conservative Party political world, leading a new party of the centre right.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Someone's trying to push Gove's price out in the markets now to make him look like a loser alongside the news.

    I topped up earlier today. Trying not to think I may be unlucky with my timing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    @FF43:

    It doesn't matter whether there is some objective obligation and how much. The point is Johnson is trashing all negotiation with the EU, including stuff he has agreed in principle. I don't think this is casual posturing. If it's part of a calculation, and I think it is, it suggests Johnson actually wants the EU to throw is out with No Deal in October and not offer an extension. Everything else follows from there.

    @dixiedean:

    I think he thinks he at least has a chance at winning, or at least preserving as much of the Tory vote as possible, particularly if it is done quickly before a lot of pain hits (something Tsipras in Greece did years back).

    But yes, comments which trash things that have been agreed in principle before must be very deliberate.
    Wasn't the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed? So no agreement, no payments?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Had May's deal passed on the 2nd MV on 12 March then there wasn't going to be an extension.

    Just because TMay says something doesn't mean it's true.
    Just because she said something doesn't mean it is untrue either.

    Fpr instance, she said if her deal was not passed we might get no Brexit. After dismissing that for months one Boris Johnson MP accepted she was telling the truth and voted for her deal. We actually have to hope her comments that the WA won't be reopened by the EU are untrue, given the competition to replace her though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    The Iron Saj has come in a bit anyhow.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Pulpstar said:

    Someone's trying to push Gove's price out in the markets now to make him look like a loser alongside the news.

    Perhaps astute gamblers who feel the aged, socially conservative and highly Mail credulous electorate may not look kindly on this evenings news?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Boris has to face someone. Yet everyone else is in double figures (expect Hunt on 9.8). Could be some trading chances here?

    I mean if Gove crashes out I cannot believe he doesn't have something in the locker about his old journo chum Boris.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

    The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.
    Rule 1: remainer Tories have no guts. They'll fold faster than paper deckchairs.
    If you’re going to be deselected anyway what do you have to lose .
    They lose their job. Immediately.

    If there's no early election they keep their jobs for 3 more years.
    If they delay pulling the plug on Boris they keep it for a few more months.
    If they do it immediately it is game over immediately.
    I think you’re more likely to see defections or resigning the whip first . It makes voting no confidence easier from that position .

    I expect MPs will change the standing orders and bring something into law to stop a no deal before any VONC .

    Bercow will bend the rules to make sure it happens .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    'Hard Man' my arse!

    That is all. Good night.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    nico67 said:

    I wonder whether Gove might go rogue if he gets stuffed by this cocaine story .

    Could just try and take down some others .

    I’m starting to enjoy this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    @FF43:

    It doesn't matter whether there is some objective obligation and how much. The point is Johnson is trashing all negotiation with the EU, including stuff he has agreed in principle. I don't think this is casual posturing. If it's part of a calculation, and I think it is, it suggests Johnson actually wants the EU to throw is out with No Deal in October and not offer an extension. Everything else follows from there.

    @dixiedean:

    I think he thinks he at least has a chance at winning, or at least preserving as much of the Tory vote as possible, particularly if it is done quickly before a lot of pain hits (something Tsipras in Greece did years back).

    But yes, comments which trash things that have been agreed in principle before must be very deliberate.
    Wasn't the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed? So no agreement, no payments?
    Except as plenty of no dealers say there will be mini agreements for various things, which surely will come with a price tag.

    It's all very satisfying to just say no money, I fear if it was that easy we would have tried it already. And No, May being a crap remainer doesn't mean she would deliberate avoid an easy way to achieve things.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    nico67 said:

    I wonder whether Gove might go rogue if he gets stuffed by this cocaine story .

    Could just try and take down some others .

    I’m starting to enjoy this.
    Yep. Popcorn is in full flow (with a couple of post-pub whiskeys)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    I wonder whether Gove might go rogue if he gets stuffed by this cocaine story .

    Could just try and take down some others .

    I’m starting to enjoy this.
    I have a feeling it’s going to turn into a complete bloodbath . What with Lady Macbeth at Goves side desperate to exact revenge !
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    I agree that the Gove takedown looks pre-planned. Boris has had this in his fridge for months. Now he serves it, with some chilled Sauvignon Blanc of See How It Feels.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Boris has to face someone. Yet everyone else is in double figures (expect Hunt on 9.8). Could be some trading chances here?

    I mean if Gove crashes out I cannot believe he doesn't have something in the locker about his old journo chum Boris.

    I posed the question earlier, but what could harm Boris at this point, to the point of actually preventing a victory? People know about his affairs, about being sacked for lying, about bumbling, about saying offensive things, that he has flip flopped on major issues including Brexit, that is stated to be lazy and incompetent. And yet no dealers and softer leavers alike are lining up to back him and the members still rate him above the other candidates.

    What scandal would affect that?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Pulpstar said:
    Ooh, bitchy!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230


    Very interesting speech by Lord Ashcroft on the causes of Trump and Brexit.

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/06/candidates-are-supposed-to-pay-attention-to-the-voters-backstory-not-the-other-way-round-my-e2-summit-speech/

    The key appears based on graphs based on security/diversity.

    That was very useful and interesting. I read with great interest and I have favorited it. Thank you.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Something afoot with MoS story...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex. said:

    nico67 said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

    The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.
    Rule 1: remainer Tories have no guts. They'll fold faster than paper deckchairs.
    If you’re going to be deselected anyway what do you have to lose .
    They lose their job. Immediately.

    If there's no early election they keep their jobs for 3 more years.
    If they delay pulling the plug on Boris they keep it for a few more months.
    If they do it immediately it is game over immediately.
    Or maybe they fancy roles in a post Conservative Party political world, leading a new party of the centre right.
    LOL in Chuk perhaps!?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    nico67 said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris intends us to no deal, there's no other way to interpret it when we know there is nothing else that could mollify the Bakers of this world, who make very clear the backstop could be resolved and they'd still not back a WA.

    A lot of former remainers and softer leavers are either fooling themselves about what is either Boris's intention or the natural result of his plan whether he wants it or not, or they are ignoring that because they think he is the only one who can save as much of the party's vote as possible.

    I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

    The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.
    Rule 1: remainer Tories have no guts. They'll fold faster than paper deckchairs.
    If you’re going to be deselected anyway what do you have to lose .
    They lose their job. Immediately.

    If there's no early election they keep their jobs for 3 more years.
    If they delay pulling the plug on Boris they keep it for a few more months.
    If they do it immediately it is game over immediately.
    In which case there is a high chance they will lose their job pretty soon even if they delay pulling the plug, in which case is it really better for them long term to trash their own brand and ruin their reputation by backing Boris despite him pursuing something they claim is so important to them and the nation, rather than lose their job immediately but 'save' the country from that outcome, even at the price of, say, a Corbyn premiership?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

    Sadly, Big_G, I agree. I wish it were not so and someone like Rory could take over your party and return it to rational, steady conservative governing.

    Strange times we live in.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Had May's deal passed on the 2nd MV on 12 March then there wasn't going to be an extension.

    Just because TMay says something doesn't mean it's true.
    Not is not the point being made. Had MV2 passed we would be out of the EU
    Probably not yet: The practical deadline is the start of the new EU Parliament session (since the UK wouldn't have held elections), she'd probably have extended until then. They had a lot of legislation to pass, and once it was definitely happening there wouldn't have been much of a political cost.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2019

    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

    Seems like a good candidate to be leader then?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Germany poll:

    Emnid:

    CDU/CSU 27%
    Greens 27%
    SPD 12%
    AfD 12%
    FDP 8%
    Linke 7%
    Others 7%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Something afoot with MoS story...

    Can you elaborate?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429
    Two more graphs from Lord Ashcroft



  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    AndyJS said:

    Something afoot with MoS story...

    Can you elaborate?
    https://twitter.com/GBPHS/status/1137477020005388295
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn.

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes off both.
    ... and Ruth Davidson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    The Saj's chance to pip Hunt to the second spot perhaps, with the momentum (if there is any) from Ruth Davidson's backing?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

    Sadly, Big_G, I agree. I wish it were not so and someone like Rory could take over your party and return it to rational, steady conservative governing.

    Strange times we live in.
    I affirm as a member Boris will not receive my vote but I instinctively feel Boris is near unstoppable now.

    As for post Boris I have great hopes for Penny Mordaunt but now is too soon
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    Half to Boris, half to A N Other? Rough guess.

    It is very difficult now to see a route to the final two which doesn't include Boris J. In which case he wins.

    Perhaps it is karmic justice for all, that the most prominent Brexiteer has to deliver Brexit.

    Feck knows how he does it. But maybe the healing begins here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited June 2019
    Urban/Rurl split on HS2 up here (Basically if you're near a station)
    https://www.worksopguardian.co.uk/news/mp-says-bassetlaw-will-be-left-in-no-man-s-land-by-hs2-line-up-proposals-1-7727637
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Someone's trying to push Gove's price out in the markets now to make him look like a loser alongside the news.

    Perhaps astute gamblers who feel the aged, socially conservative and highly Mail credulous electorate may not look kindly on this evenings news?
    He's headed to ~ 19.0, out a touch from where he was - but the lay price was taken out all the way to 90 just as the news broke.
    That's either someone trying to send his price out deliberately or someone gambling very poorly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    I would suggest not Boris.

    Hunt back in the running? Yippeee!!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited June 2019

    Interestingly the bottom-right quadrant is a lot shallower than the US equivalent, which makes sense as the UK is a much more compact country.

    image
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn.

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes off both.
    ... and Ruth Davidson.
    No. Scotlands first minister elect !!!!!!!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn.

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes off both.
    ... and Ruth Davidson.
    No. Scotlands first minister elect !!!!!!!
    Er... are you on a Class A drug?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    I would suggest not Boris.

    Hunt back in the running? Yippeee!!!
    But he would be slaughtered in the members vote
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Byronic said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    Half to Boris, half to A N Other? Rough guess.

    It is very difficult now to see a route to the final two which doesn't include Boris J. In which case he wins.

    Perhaps it is karmic justice for all, that the most prominent Brexiteer has to deliver Brexit.

    Feck knows how he does it. But maybe the healing begins here.

    I would die laughing if it wasn't so serious. But Boris trying to deliver the f**ked up cake crap that he has been blathering on about for last three years will be box office.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

    Sadly, Big_G, I agree. I wish it were not so and someone like Rory could take over your party and return it to rational, steady conservative governing.

    Strange times we live in.
    I affirm as a member Boris will not receive my vote but I instinctively feel Boris is near unstoppable now.

    As for post Boris I have great hopes for Penny Mordaunt but now is too soon
    Agreed. She'd be an excellent post Boris PM, but this is not her moment.

    It might not be anyone's moment, of course. Or this could be Sturgeon's moment, Putin's moment. the Lord High Demon of the Multiverse's moment.

    But it is very definitely A Moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2019

    Byronic said:

    Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

    The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

    Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

    Seems like a good candidate to be leader then?
    If we assume there is no way to get a deal through parliament, and therefore there will likely be an election sometime this year, then painful as it is to say it makes some sense to pick Boris from a purely Tory party perspective I would think. He's not been consistent in pursuing no deal but the no dealers don't seem to hold that against him, and so hoping he retains enough residual positive backing to limit the damage from the BXP makes a certain amount of sense in the short term.

    But selling unrealistic dreams when crunch points are approaching does not seem sound for their longer term chances.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Pulpstar said:

    Urban/Rurl split on HS2 up here (Basically if you're near a station)
    https://www.worksopguardian.co.uk/news/mp-says-bassetlaw-will-be-left-in-no-man-s-land-by-hs2-line-up-proposals-1-7727637

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Someone's trying to push Gove's price out in the markets now to make him look like a loser alongside the news.

    Perhaps astute gamblers who feel the aged, socially conservative and highly Mail credulous electorate may not look kindly on this evenings news?
    He's headed to ~ 19.0, out a touch from where he was - but the lay price was taken out all the way to 90 just as the news broke.
    That's either someone trying to send his price out deliberately or someone gambling very poorly.
    Ah. OK fair dos then. That does sound fishy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    I would suggest not Boris.

    Hunt back in the running? Yippeee!!!
    But he would be slaughtered in the members vote
    Yes. Agree. But might be some laying potential should Boris have TV debate misstep.

    For a start Gove will be going through his phone book ringing everyone Boris has ever met...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Byronic said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    Half to Boris, half to A N Other? Rough guess.

    It is very difficult now to see a route to the final two which doesn't include Boris J. In which case he wins.

    Perhaps it is karmic justice for all, that the most prominent Brexiteer has to deliver Brexit.

    Feck knows how he does it. But maybe the healing begins here.

    I would die laughing if it wasn't so serious. But Boris trying to deliver the f**ked up cake crap that he has been blathering on about for last three years will be box office.
    It would be the ultimate irony
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Byronic said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    Half to Boris, half to A N Other? Rough guess.

    It is very difficult now to see a route to the final two which doesn't include Boris J. In which case he wins.

    Perhaps it is karmic justice for all, that the most prominent Brexiteer has to deliver Brexit.

    Feck knows how he does it. But maybe the healing begins here.

    I would die laughing if it wasn't so serious. But Boris trying to deliver the f**ked up cake crap that he has been blathering on about for last three years will be box office.
    If you thought watching May was excruciating, Boris is going to be like fingernails on a blackboard.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Think Gove's done for.

    So where do he and his supporters go?

    Half to Boris, half to A N Other? Rough guess.

    It is very difficult now to see a route to the final two which doesn't include Boris J. In which case he wins.

    Perhaps it is karmic justice for all, that the most prominent Brexiteer has to deliver Brexit.

    Feck knows how he does it. But maybe the healing begins here.

    I would die laughing if it wasn't so serious. But Boris trying to deliver the f**ked up cake crap that he has been blathering on about for last three years will be box office.
    Yup. I reckon he will seriously go for No Deal, and try and get the EU to engineer it, so he can blame them (he knows they hate him). He's worked out that No Deal means a Deal anyway, just with several weeks/months of chaos in between, but at least it saves the country from Corbyn and Farage.

    Of course it might cost the Union.... or it might not. Boris is gonna roll the dice.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    The Greens are ahead in the German polling average on Wikipedia for the first time:

    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_20._Deutschen_Bundestag/Umfragen_und_Prognosen#Mittelwerte_der_Sonntagsfragen
This discussion has been closed.