Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,357
    Hypocrisy is causing the damage and there's no escaping that now for Gove.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,282
    Second like the LibDems
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,308
    It's that ole devil called Gove!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364
    edited June 9
    I think Gove's revelations will probably mean that Hunt, not Gove, comes second to Boris on Thursday especially if as reported Rudd, Hammond, Clark etc are ready to endorse Hunt.

    However I would not count Gove out, as of today he still has 1 more MP backing him than Hunt and once McVey and Leadsom go out I would expect more of their support to go to him than Hunt and he might well pick up a few from Hancock, Stewart and Gyimah too. If he then knocks out Raab and Javid I suspect more of the former's MPs would back him over Hunt and he would at least split the difference with Hunt with The Saj's supporters and have a chance of overtaking Hunt to get to the runoff with Boris
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,334
    I do wonder if his demise isn't a bit overblown - particularly given how many other candidates have made similar admissions. Maybe this does sink him, but he's picked up a couple of new endorsements today and I don't know of any backers publicly renouncing him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    Nah the most extraordinary betting part is Leadsom's price.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    edited June 9
    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    Quincel said:

    I do wonder if his demise isn't a bit overblown - particularly given how many other candidates have made similar admissions. Maybe this does sink him, but he's picked up a couple of new endorsements today and I don't know of any backers publicly renouncing him.

    I topped up a fiver at 21.0 but Hunt is happily a better result for me anyway.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,960
    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,941
    Pulpstar said:
    My trouble is I don't believe a single word Boris says.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 1,679
    Scott_P said:
    More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,466
    Quincel said:

    I do wonder if his demise isn't a bit overblown - particularly given how many other candidates have made similar admissions. Maybe this does sink him, but he's picked up a couple of new endorsements today and I don't know of any backers publicly renouncing him.

    I think it is the media (specifically the Brexit supporting media) who are gunning for Gove, maybe it is his past deeds in relation to Boris Johnson or maybe Gove is seen as the biggest competitor to Johnson. I am sorry to bang on about the Brexit supporting media but they seem to have disproportionate influence in our countries future. They want Boris as PM and will do anything to achieve this even if it means destroying the career of Gove who is a fellow journalist!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    edited June 9
    Scott_P said:
    And still he's rated at less than a quarter the chance of Leadsom according to Betfair !
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    Pulpstar said:
    Nonetheless there are intriguing signs that Boris, has - finally - been doing some proper hard thinking, or at least has employed people to think for him, given that he is a fat, lazy, oversexed bastard.

    His campaign has been a model of discretion and modesty. It must have been tricky for him. But he is doing it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,773
    Scott_P said:
    Javid is probably the one they should go for.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,815
    I will laugh if Leadsom gets 50+ votes on Thursday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    tlg86 said:

    I will laugh if Leadsom gets 50+ votes on Thursday.

    I won't :D
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,960
    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,028
    tlg86 said:

    I will laugh if Leadsom gets 50+ votes on Thursday.

    That would be unkind.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,941
    I'm currently+£300 on Boris and +£950 on Hunt so this suits me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,672
    Caroline Nokes, Victoria Atkins, but who's Williams? Someone in the Lords?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,328
    Poor Govey. But it's a race of also rans against the Boris machine at the momenty anyway. Hunt will be smiling for the moment at any rate, though I guess as per posts below Javid still has a chance to make the final cut, particularly if he can pick up Gove's backers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    Who is the home office minister "Williams" ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,773
    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,328
    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Nonetheless there are intriguing signs that Boris, has - finally - been doing some proper hard thinking, or at least has employed people to think for him, given that he is a fat, lazy, oversexed bastard.
    That's presumably because he has done virtually nothing else in the last few years other than think about his leadership campaign. It's given him no time to think about other things, given it took him near 6 months to realise not Brexiting might lead to No Brexit, and he had better vote for the WA after all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280

    I'm currently+£300 on Boris and +£950 on Hunt so this suits me.

    My word you have dug hard on Leadsom :D
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,156
    So the weird thing about this race is that nobody really knows who the voters are. Tory members *used* to live tax cuts for rich people but many of those people have left, and what about the brexit-enthusiastic entryists?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,535
    There isn't time for this to blow over, the process starts tomorrow and Gove has just had a whole weekend of bad press. He may not have much chance of winning now but there's nothing stopping him staying in and trying to take Boris down in the debates/hustings.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,334
    Pulpstar said:

    Nah the most extraordinary betting part is Leadsom's price.

    Indeed, there was a comment a few days ago that if Boris wins it will put half of this site into red for the year. If Leadsom does we'll all be filing for bankruptcy!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,545
    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Nonetheless there are intriguing signs that Boris, has - finally - been doing some proper hard thinking, or at least has employed people to think for him, given that he is a fat, lazy, oversexed bastard.

    His campaign has been a model of discretion and modesty. It must have been tricky for him. But he is doing it.

    It’s exactly what he did in London for eight years. Avoid press conferences and difficult interviews, talk to friendly journalists, make speeches with no follow-up Q&A. Johnson has never been big on scrutiny. For obvious reasons.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,328

    So the weird thing about this race is that nobody really knows who the voters are. Tory members *used* to live tax cuts for rich people but many of those people have left, and what about the brexit-enthusiastic entryists?

    Promise them no deal and they could not care less I suspect, but it's nice that they candidates are at least attempting to come up with some ideas on issues besides Brexit to differentiate themselves.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    Raising the 40p from 50-80k probably shores up some seats in the Southeast I think.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    But it may not legally owe the amount, both sides accept about half may be unenforceable. You can't ask a non-member if an organisation to pay membership fees.

    As I said, the market will give no fucks about it, the sovereign debt default aspect is complete rubbish. The effect is limited to our future relationship with the EU, but that also cuts both ways. If the EU is unwilling to take the necessary steps to avoid the scenario from playing out then they will be as culpable as the government. Again, there's no black and white scenario here, of all people I'd expect you to understand that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,028
    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    Boris is an empty vessel every single different wing of the party is pouring its hopes into. Everyone sees what they want to see.

    It is pretty impressive.

    Obviously it collapses the moment he takes office but its betting him the job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364
    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.

    £50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere too
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,773
    Pulpstar said:

    Raising the 40p from 50-80k probably shores up some seats in the Southeast I think.

    How?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364
    edited June 9
    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Boris will almost certainly still have to contest a membership vote, unlike May and unlike Brown.


    Boris also has charisma, May and Brown did not and the biggest determinant of who wins an election these days tends to be which party has the more charismatic leader
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.
    it really really ISN'T. May and Brown enjoyed a coronation. Which turned out calamitous for us - and for them and their careers.

    Boris is being tested in a campaign, and he is, so far, campaigning rather cleverly. Hence his position as faraway front runner.

    Does this augur well, if he becomes PM? Let us hope so.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,523
    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    Boris has not said he will not pay, his words were he would "withhold" payment. We withheld paying back the Iranians the 300mill they paid for tanks, made us such a pariah in the world.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Nonetheless there are intriguing signs that Boris, has - finally - been doing some proper hard thinking, or at least has employed people to think for him, given that he is a fat, lazy, oversexed bastard.

    His campaign has been a model of discretion and modesty. It must have been tricky for him. But he is doing it.

    It’s exactly what he did in London for eight years. Avoid press conferences and difficult interviews, talk to friendly journalists, make speeches with no follow-up Q&A. Johnson has never been big on scrutiny. For obvious reasons.

    Agreed.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,513
    Boris vs Hunt = Corbyn vs Kinnock.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,960
    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.

    And then we found that a blank space was all she was.

    And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364
    kle4 said:

    Poor Govey. But it's a race of also rans against the Boris machine at the momenty anyway. Hunt will be smiling for the moment at any rate, though I guess as per posts below Javid still has a chance to make the final cut, particularly if he can pick up Gove's backers.

    If Javid knocks out Gove and it is a final 4 of Boris, Hunt, Javid and Raab and he then knocks out Raab too I would make Javid favourite over Hunt to make the final two with Boris as more of Raab's backers will likely go to Javid than Hunt
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,466
    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.
    Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,667
    Pulpstar said:

    Raising the 40p from 50-80k probably shores up some seats in the Southeast I think.

    Seems like an extraordinary hike, would put me into the basic rate which I find quite incredible really. There will surely be conjuring tricks, so they claw back the money elsewhere. It would be an massive giveaway to people in my income bracket otherwise.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,545
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.

    £50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere too

    A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    The new £80k bracket sounds nice. Get rid of allowance withdrawal and the additional rate and we might finally have a Tory PM worthy of the title.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,156
    edited June 9
    Cyclefree said:



    And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.

    TBF there's no way anyone's getting a realistic achievable plan for Brexit past the membership, so if anybody has one their only moves are either to STFU for the duration of the campaign or to lie about it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,941
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.

    £50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere too
    Worth bearing in mind that Boris himself is potentially defending a marginal seat in Greater London.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,513

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.

    £50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere too

    A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.

    Not bad for taxpayers either.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,667

    Hypocrisy is causing the damage and there's no escaping that now for Gove.


    I’m surprised that anyone is surprised, or cares.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,843
    MaxPB said:

    The new £80k bracket sounds nice. Get rid of allowance withdrawal and the additional rate and we might finally have a Tory PM worthy of the title.

    Oh great, more money for me that should absolutely be going to places where it's needed instead.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,173
    TGOHF said:

    Boris vs Hunt = Corbyn vs Kinnock.

    Piers Vs Stephen?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,672
    Pulpstar said:

    Who is the home office minister "Williams" ?

    Must be Baroness Williams.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Williams,_Baroness_Williams_of_Trafford
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,960
    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.

    And then we found that a blank space was all she was.

    And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
    And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?

    Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
    Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
    Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.

    Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 1,679

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    Boris has not said he will not pay, his words were he would "withhold" payment. We withheld paying back the Iranians the 300mill they paid for tanks, made us such a pariah in the world.
    You’re making a bizarre analogy . The UK s biggest market is the EU , pissing off Iran isn’t going to hurt trade and the EU globally is much more powerful than Iran .

    It’s quite delusional for some Leavers to think you can walk out , fail to pay your bills and the EU will say great let’s do a trade deal now .

    In fact the way Bozos going he’ll end up the shortest PM in history .
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
    No. It isn't. Yawn.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,513
    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.

    And then we found that a blank space was all she was.

    And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
    And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?

    Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
    Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
    Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.

    Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.

    But Boris is shit..
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,843
    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.

    And then we found that a blank space was all she was.

    And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
    And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?

    Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
    Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
    Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.

    Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.

    It's not Johnson making the mistake, it's the people voting for him.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,545
    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.

    Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
    That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.

    And then we found that a blank space was all she was.

    And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
    And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?

    Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
    Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
    Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.

    Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.

    But Boris is shit..
    Why and how? Genuine question.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,545
    MaxPB said:

    The new £80k bracket sounds nice. Get rid of allowance withdrawal and the additional rate and we might finally have a Tory PM worthy of the title.

    And handily just above an MP’s salary.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,960
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    But it may not legally owe the amount, both sides accept about half may be unenforceable. You can't ask a non-member if an organisation to pay membership fees.

    As I said, the market will give no fucks about it, the sovereign debt default aspect is complete rubbish. The effect is limited to our future relationship with the EU, but that also cuts both ways. If the EU is unwilling to take the necessary steps to avoid the scenario from playing out then they will be as culpable as the government. Again, there's no black and white scenario here, of all people I'd expect you to understand that.
    Get real. If Britain leaves with no deal, it will be looking for friends. It won’t be the EU which will be blamed because Britain has decided that ignoring agreements it previously entered into is the way to start on its post-Brexit future.

    That will be taken into account in the price which Britain will be charged for everything it wants, from the EU or anyone else.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,545
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.

    £50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere too

    A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.

    Not bad for taxpayers either.

    Very good news for well-off ones, for sure.

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,523
    nico67 said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    Boris has not said he will not pay, his words were he would "withhold" payment. We withheld paying back the Iranians the 300mill they paid for tanks, made us such a pariah in the world.
    You’re making a bizarre analogy . The UK s biggest market is the EU , pissing off Iran isn’t going to hurt trade and the EU globally is much more powerful than Iran .

    It’s quite delusional for some Leavers to think you can walk out , fail to pay your bills and the EU will say great let’s do a trade deal now .

    In fact the way Bozos going he’ll end up the shortest PM in history .
    You are making a different argument to Macron and the people on here that we would suffer internationally for mot paying the ransom. You are now sating the EU would be annoyed. Well no shit sherlock, I agree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.

    Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.

    Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenues
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,513
    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.

    And then we found that a blank space was all she was.

    And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
    And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?

    Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
    Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
    Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.

    Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.

    But Boris is shit..
    Why and how? Genuine question.
    Did you miss the Foreign Secretary months ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,328
    _Anazina_ said:

    Hypocrisy is causing the damage and there's no escaping that now for Gove.


    I’m surprised that anyone is surprised, or cares.
    People are quite capable of suddenly caring intensely about things even if, unlike in this case, they already knew about matter at hand. It's curious.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,466
    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
    I think refusing to pay is the road to ruin, more pain and the usual characters will claim we can take it whilst they will feel little of it. Trump gets away with that sort of tactic as the US is No.1 economically and militarily at the moment. If the UK was No.1 in the world we could turn around and say screw you to the EU but the very fact we are less significant than we were internationally 75 or 100 years ago is the very reason we joined the EU! Our relationship with the EU is all about money , trade and future development prospects. We say F??? you and we end up hitting ourselves economically...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,545
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.

    Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.

    Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenues

    You don’t expand economic growth by reducing your opportunities to trade and increasing your borrowing costs.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,328
    AndyJS said:
    Well, Gove was the remainers' leaver, but I guess with him flailing there are not remainer friendly leavers to back.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    But it may not legally owe the amount, both sides accept about half may be unenforceable. You can't ask a non-member if an organisation to pay membership fees.

    As I said, the market will give no fucks about it, the sovereign debt default aspect is complete rubbish. The effect is limited to our future relationship with the EU, but that also cuts both ways. If the EU is unwilling to take the necessary steps to avoid the scenario from playing out then they will be as culpable as the government. Again, there's no black and white scenario here, of all people I'd expect you to understand that.
    Get real. If Britain leaves with no deal, it will be looking for friends. It won’t be the EU which will be blamed because Britain has decided that ignoring agreements it previously entered into is the way to start on its post-Brexit future.

    That will be taken into account in the price which Britain will be charged for everything it wants, from the EU or anyone else.
    As I said, it's a load of crap, the UK has and will maintain the confidence of the markets regardless of the outcome of the exit bill.

    I think you need to separate market reality from media perception of the market.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.
    Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!
    Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etc
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,328
    Scott_P said:
    Yes and No. They need to promise things like that to win among the members, so they have kept their sense in doing so. The problems will be if they try to do those things and there is an external backlash, or they don;t try to do them and there is an internal backlash.

    We've not moved on from May yet, all of them are focused on getting through the next five minutes and that's about it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 603
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
    That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.
    i think this is right. The credit agencies and global finance are not exactly fans of the international body which created the dysfunctional idiocy that is the "eurozone".

    A dispute with Brussels won't harm us (or them in Europe), nor will it hurt us (or them). It will be seen as a minor but niggling dispute (which it is, in the global scheme). It will be two divorcees settling bills. Everyone will look away. In boredom.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.

    Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.

    Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenues

    You don’t expand economic growth by reducing your opportunities to trade and increasing your borrowing costs.

    Brexit done well will expand opportunities to trade across the globe, especially in fast growing Asia
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,308
    "Instead of sending £39bn to Brussels, let's spend it on the rich instead"
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,545
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.

    Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.

    Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenues

    You don’t expand economic growth by reducing your opportunities to trade and increasing your borrowing costs.

    Brexit done well will expand opportunities to trade across the globe, especially in fast growing Asia

    A No Deal Brexit is not Brexit done well. We already have huge opportunities in Asia.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,280
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.
    Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!
    Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etc
    I don't doubt you but can you show me the Peter Hitchens column backing Bozza ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364
    Scott_P said:
    Hunt is apparently 'a serious leader for serious times' according to Rudd, so basically much the same as Brown and May then
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.

    £50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere too
    Worth bearing in mind that Boris himself is potentially defending a marginal seat in Greater London.
    Indeed and it will benefit a lot of voters there
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,672
    A second chance that a lot of people don't get.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 9
    Scott_P said:
    How do you fund £10 million of ongoing tax cuts annually from a one off pot?

    I know it’s all funny money anyway but it doesn’t really add up.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,662
    Byronic said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Byronic said:

    fpr for Cyclefree



    It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.

    Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794

    That may well be so.

    But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
    It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)

    You are surely smart enough to see this?!

    We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.

    And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
    That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.

    If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.

    It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
    That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.
    i think this is right. The credit agencies and global finance are not exactly fans of the international body which created the dysfunctional idiocy that is the "eurozone".

    A dispute with Brussels won't harm us (or them in Europe), nor will it hurt us (or them). It will be seen as a minor but niggling dispute (which it is, in the global scheme). It will be two divorcees settling bills. Everyone will look away. In boredom.



    Yes, this idea that the whole world will be watching with baited breath is quaint, but completely wrong. Nobody is going to care. It's probably a bit depressing more than anything else, but such is the reality of the market.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,523
    AndyJS said:
    Jeremy Hunt puts head in hands and wails "Please no."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,364

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.

    £50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere too

    A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.

    If we go to No Deal we will need to cut taxes to continue to attract business and investment and higher earners here so this will help with that. If you want higher taxes you will never vote Tory anyway
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,308
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.

    Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?

    Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.

    It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.

    I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
    It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.
    Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!
    Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etc
    I don't doubt you but can you show me the Peter Hitchens column backing Bozza ?
    He said Hitchens does NOT support Bojo
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,513
    As for Hunt - Rudd and Hammond backing you might be a poisoned chalice.
This discussion has been closed.