Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
Hunt wins the launch beauty contest. Showed a bit more leg and a hint of cleavage on the policy front and pinged his swimsuit for more defence spending.
Hunt is going to be repeating that at ever thing he does this week.
A huge hostage to fortune. Labour just need to keep stonewalling on any Brexit deal and he won’t be able to keep his promise of delivering Brexit before a GE.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
Sadly true. Perhaps he will be the one to pick up the shattered party after Boris has finished this autumn.
The default position when someone resigns is that they are no longer in post. Unfortunately for some bettors, it appears that the Tory Party does things differently.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
If the alternative is Boris, Raab et al - he'll get my vote I guess.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
If the alternative is Boris, Raab et al - he'll get my vote I guess.
Yes, same here. If it's Hunt vs Boris I'll vote for Hunt.
The default position when someone resigns is that they are no longer in post. Unfortunately for some bettors, it appears that the Tory Party does things differently.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
If the alternative is Boris, Raab et al - he'll get my vote I guess.
Yes, same here. If it's Hunt vs Boris I'll vote for Hunt.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
The key issue is whether the Conservative Party membership will choose a pragmatic rather than fantasy solution.
I have no great confidence that they will choose the former. I mean take a look at some of @Philip_Thompson's posts today. Scares the living shit out of me.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
With the exception of Andrea Leadsom, I'm pretty green on all of those now. I'm green on Sajid Javid as well and on Rory Stewart. One of all of those must win, I suppose. Boy, it's unappetising.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
With the exception of Andrea Leadsom, I'm pretty green on all of those now. I'm green on Sajid Javid as well and on Rory Stewart. One of all of those must win, I suppose. Boy, it's unappetising.
Tad red on Leadsom. Green on all other likely runners. Quite pleased. Let's not have any wild cards at 4:30pm today please.
Hunt wins the launch beauty contest. Showed a bit more leg and a hint of cleavage on the policy front and pinged his swimsuit for more defence spending.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
With the exception of Andrea Leadsom, I'm pretty green on all of those now. I'm green on Sajid Javid as well and on Rory Stewart. One of all of those must win, I suppose. Boy, it's unappetising.
Tad red on Leadsom. Green on all other likely runners. Quite pleased. Let's not have any wild cards at 4:30pm today please.
My position on Andrea Leadsom would the multitudinous seas incarnadine.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
Yep, as I say, Tory MPs have a lot of thinking to do. Do they really, really believe Boris can win an autumn GE? Hunt would at least put it off for a year with an extension.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
With the exception of Andrea Leadsom, I'm pretty green on all of those now. I'm green on Sajid Javid as well and on Rory Stewart. One of all of those must win, I suppose. Boy, it's unappetising.
Same. Boris+30 Leadsom -115 (was more but I am chicken) Hunt +450 Gove +900 Javid +200 Stewart +50 McVey +1000
I think we should be wary about assuming Boris is an autowin with the membership. There's limited evidence, and he certainly has the potential to put his foot in it.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
Amber Rudd this morning was adamant, in announcing her support for Hunt, that "parliament would find a way" to stop a no dealer. Boris is a no dealer so the question is whether the Conservative Party will continue to live in fantasy land by electing him to be their leader.
I know we have been down the "logical thinking" route previously which has to date looked for all there world like a dead end but there really should be no way at all that the Cons (or "we" as I like to put it) could elect a no dealer as leader as they would surely have to resign or face a general election in pretty short order and I mean surely SOME Cons members get that and hence I have re-topped up on Hunt (5.9) and Gove (26) on bf.
Amber Rudd needs to decide whether she wants to bring down the government and let Jez into power. That's the equation for the die hard remainers in the party. The only way they can stop no deal is to bring the government down, which will mean Jez ends up as PM, enabled by them.
If she is making that statement then you must believe that she has already gone down that path. So yes it seems that several Cons MPs would prefer to bring down the government (or perhaps not it would be a GE after all) than countenance No Deal.
If they really believe that No Deal would be very bad for the country then it is a reasonable position to take.
A VONC on a no-dealer PM doesn't necessarily lead to a General Election. There are 14 days for the Privy Council to recommend to the Queen a PM who has the confidence of the house.
Would Hunt survive a VONC? I think he would. There may be a few ERGers who would vote against their party and lose the whip, but there are others in other parties who would prefer to give Hunt a chance rather than lose their own seats in a general election. And the DUP would support him rather than lose their stranglehold in a GE.
Remainers, especially strong ones, would like to give Boris a kicking. He's lost support in London but beyond the M25 can be portrayed as a London-centric chap (because he's been mayor there twice). Plus his court jester schtick has worn thin, and he's shown himself incompetent in high office.
Hunt wins the launch beauty contest. Showed a bit more leg and a hint of cleavage on the policy front and pinged his swimsuit for more defence spending.
The default position when someone resigns is that they are no longer in post. Unfortunately for some bettors, it appears that the Tory Party does things differently.
But we don't know who fills the vacancy yet.
Not sure what the relevance of this reply is.
May is still PM in post
I was referring to the Tory Party, not the government.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, of he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
Are you forgetting that only 35% is needed to win a GE? A country of 65% nadkickers could still end up with him as their PM.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
The key issue is whether the Conservative Party membership will choose a pragmatic rather than fantasy solution.
I have no great confidence that they will choose the former. I mean take a look at some of @Philip_Thompson's posts today. Scares the living shit out of me.
Aww isn't that sweet.
Considering we want two very different outcomes that looks like a great thing to me.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
With the exception of Andrea Leadsom, I'm pretty green on all of those now. I'm green on Sajid Javid as well and on Rory Stewart. One of all of those must win, I suppose. Boy, it's unappetising.
Tad red on Leadsom. Green on all other likely runners. Quite pleased. Let's not have any wild cards at 4:30pm today please.
My position on Andrea Leadsom would the multitudinous seas incarnadine.
Perhaps not the most auspicious play to be quoting...
Though there are plenty of tales being told by idiots, strutting and fretting their hours on the stage.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
Are you forgetting that only 35% is needed to win a GE? A country of 65% nadkickers could still end up with him as their PM.
Given the distance that the Tory Party has travelled from Dave's hug a hoodie days I would be amazed if they could get 35% for an extreme Brexiter. Not to say it would be impossible but I just can't see it. Plenty of "old fashioned" Tories (ie those of five years ago) could easily lend their votes to Corbyn and would be able to afford whatever happened next.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
The key issue is whether the Conservative Party membership will choose a pragmatic rather than fantasy solution.
I have no great confidence that they will choose the former. I mean take a look at some of @Philip_Thompson's posts today. Scares the living shit out of me.
Aww isn't that sweet.
Considering we want two very different outcomes that looks like a great thing to me.
Uh-oh. Given your complete inability to determine what is great and for whom I am doubly worried.
On topic - May is leader of the Conservative Party. They are looking to appoint a successor but otherwise she remains the leader. A bit like when someone resigns from their job - they still do the job during a notice period despite having resigned.
Off topic - of course Boris wants to hand £10bn to the Tory membership in a tax cut and of course they like Boris for some reason. Haven't worked out how much cash I would save but it would be nice...
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
Its worth remembering though that as recently as 2016 Boris was instrumental in convincing 52%. We don't need to look back to London Mayoral elections to see Boris as an election winner.
The fact that some sore losers from 2016 who still haven't reconciled themselves to the fact they lostdon't like him for it doesn't mean he wouldn't be successful a fourth time.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
So you advise laying Boris, Leadsom, Gove and Hunt. Who's left!?
The key issue is whether the Conservative Party membership will choose a pragmatic rather than fantasy solution.
I have no great confidence that they will choose the former. I mean take a look at some of @Philip_Thompson's posts today. Scares the living shit out of me.
Aww isn't that sweet.
Considering we want two very different outcomes that looks like a great thing to me.
Uh-oh. Given your complete inability to determine what is great and for whom I am doubly worried.
I have ability, just different assumptions and different priorities. And I'm less closed-minded.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
He is not even capable of appearing on TV during an election campaign for fear of blundering. What sort of party would choose such a leader?
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
Do you think Corbyn will be able to repeat his trick from last time of uniting leavers and remainers, extreme socialists and moderates who can't stand him but think he'll lose so it doesn't matter if they vote for him?
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
What time frame. I expect he may get an initial bump as people move back from Nigel to the Tories but he is going to disappoint that audience very early on.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
Its worth remembering though that as recently as 2016 Boris was instrumental in convincing 52%. We don't need to look back to London Mayoral elections to see Boris as an election winner.
The fact that some sore losers from 2016 who still haven't reconciled themselves to the fact they lostdon't like him for it doesn't mean he wouldn't be successful a fourth time.
His omnibus-based lies are now fully exposed. The man on the one to Clapham won’t be duped again.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
That was against a single party opposition. How does 33% do against everyone else in the low 20s?
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
Boris could even win a majority with under 30%.
Yougov last week had a Boris led Tory Party on 29%, Labour and the LDs on 22% each and the Brexit Party on 13% giving a Tory majority of 16
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
Do you think Corbyn will be able to repeat his trick from last time of uniting leavers and remainers, extreme socialists and moderates who can't stand him but think he'll lose so it doesn't matter if they vote for him?
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
Ridiculous. There is no such world.
The universe as a whole is massive. That doesn't mean it's as easy to trade with as our neighbouring countries in a trading group we've been a member of for almost 50 years
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
Its worth remembering though that as recently as 2016 Boris was instrumental in convincing 52%. We don't need to look back to London Mayoral elections to see Boris as an election winner.
The fact that some sore losers from 2016 who still haven't reconciled themselves to the fact they lostdon't like him for it doesn't mean he wouldn't be successful a fourth time.
His omnibus-based lies are now fully exposed. The man on the one to Clapham won’t be duped again.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
What time frame. I expect he may get an initial bump as people move back from Nigel to the Tories but he is going to disappoint that audience very early on.
I am sure the Brexit C2DE voters in Labour constituencies are delighted with the focus on making those on £80k richer.
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
A Hunt led Tory Party would fall behind the LDs with Yougov with the Brexit Party still over 20%
I must be off. Due to the Mysteries of Electricity I do not know if I'll be back this afternoon, but I'd urge fellow PBers to be civil to one another and focus on the important things, such as my winning tip on Verstappen.
For brexiteers there is only one way to get their no deal outcome now, they need an explicit endorsement either through a GE manifesto or a second ref. They simply won't be able to get anything else through parliament (and they will never be able to prorogue it either). So brexiteers will basically have to decide if they fear a second ref or a GE pre-brexit more. Hunt will have no choice but to go for second ref, Boris a GE with their stated pitches.
they should go for a second ref, no deal vs revoke. It would stand a fair chance of winning. A GE pre brexit would be much more dangerous, and would at this point likely see Corbyn get in.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
Do you think Corbyn will be able to repeat his trick from last time of uniting leavers and remainers, extreme socialists and moderates who can't stand him but think he'll lose so it doesn't matter if they vote for him?
I think that he doesn't need to in order to defeat the Conservatives next time. The Conservatives look incapable of reforming their coalition last time as well. The Stockholm syndrome Conservatives would not vote for a no-dealer. And Nigel Farage looks to be stripping a huge chunk of the death cult wing too. Meanwhile, Remain opponents of no-deal have shown that they can organise themselves too, and would do so constituency by constituency.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
Its worth remembering though that as recently as 2016 Boris was instrumental in convincing 52%. We don't need to look back to London Mayoral elections to see Boris as an election winner.
The fact that some sore losers from 2016 who still haven't reconciled themselves to the fact they lostdon't like him for it doesn't mean he wouldn't be successful a fourth time.
His omnibus-based lies are now fully exposed. The man on the one to Clapham won’t be duped again.
Not lies, £350 million was the gross amount. And the EU still wants to eliminate the rebate.
Hunt has a powerful argument. Boris would have to GE to get No Deal and it would be lost.
Will members listen to this logic?
Would it be lost though?
Suspect they would lose their majority at an absolute minimum (and then all bets are off). Also, what is the electoral narrative here for the Tory party? This also likely becomes existential as half their MPs are probably anti campaigning on a no deal platform. Having voted Tory forever, for example, I would also never vote for that.
Boris is more likely to win a GE than Hunt. Farage would siphon off far fewer voters. He might even do an electoral deal. For all that we sensible people think that Boris would be a disaster, he does have the charisma to win votes, so as of now I wouldn't bet against him winning a GE.
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
I think there would be queues round the block to kick Boris in the nads. You are confusing the Conservative membership with the general public.
I don't know about that, if he runs a campaign with £350m per week to the NHS on the side of a bus, I expect it would do very, very well.
true - no one ever went broke, or perhaps failed to become PM, underestimating...
That and Boris wouldn't need to convince all 52%, 40% would be enough in a GE for a fairly large majority.
43% was not enough last time for a majority.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
Do you think Corbyn will be able to repeat his trick from last time of uniting leavers and remainers, extreme socialists and moderates who can't stand him but think he'll lose so it doesn't matter if they vote for him?
Other parties are available.
That's the problem. Boris needs to unite the 40% of no dealers, there's about 4 major parties competing in the other 60% plus CUK.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
Ridiculous. There is no such world.
The universe as a whole is massive. That doesn't mean it's as easy to trade with as our neighbouring countries in a trading group we've been a member of for almost 50 years
Yet despite that, despite the proximity, despite the trading group, despite the fact the protectionist trading group forbids us from signing deals elsewhere . . . elsewhere still forms the majority of our trade.
So you think he'll call a General Election before October?
I don't think so, but I also think he has a much better chance of winning than people think on here. He's still got a lot of star power.
I think he would still be very dependent on his ability to make it a straight choice between him and Jeremy Corbyn, and I don't think the public are in the mind to go along with it.
So you think he'll call a General Election before October?
I don't think so, but I also think he has a much better chance of winning than people think on here. He's still got a lot of star power.
I think he would still be very dependent on his ability to make it a straight choice between him and Jeremy Corbyn, and I don't think the public are in the mind to go along with it.
I don't know. But I think I'd make him the favourite to be PM after an election.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
Ridiculous. There is no such world.
The universe as a whole is massive. That doesn't mean it's as easy to trade with as our neighbouring countries in a trading group we've been a member of for almost 50 years
Yet despite that, despite the proximity, despite the trading group, despite the fact the protectionist trading group forbids us from signing deals elsewhere . . . elsewhere still forms the majority of our trade.
That depends how you define "we". As an English nationalist, you should define it as England, in which case the percentage for Europe goes up.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
You mean monoglots who can only speak English?
Oh, English is official in quite a few countries...
Jeremy Hunt would be the best of the candidates available. There is, however, no way on God's green earth that Conservative members could be persuaded to vote for him against any of the other conceivable candidates.
A Hunt led Tory Party would fall behind the LDs with Yougov with the Brexit Party still over 20%
I can't see what voters Hunt would be able to bring to the Tories that they don't already have. He even brings an anti vote with him because of his time as Health Secretary that could boost Labour. He has a lot of the downsides of Boris (perceived lack of competence, unpopular, lack of conviction in his views), but with no benefits to balance it out.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
So Hunt’s plan is to do whatever is necessary to avoid a general election.
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
He'll be VONCed by the MPs in that scenario.
Not so sure. The membership I expect to be full of idiots. MPs? Not a majority dear god please say.
If Hunt proposes a second referendum that includes a remain scenario he'll be gone in a few days. There's no way the party will wear it.
He won't need to do that he will just say that with the exception of him being made PM and then the WA passing then any decision tree leads to a GE.
And he's right.
In which case the solution is to get an election winner in charge who can win the election.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Do you have a vote in the leadership election?
No. I know people who think like me that do though.
God there are more of you?
More people who realise there's a big world out there beyond Europe? Yes.
Absolutely!
Independence for Yorkshire! There's a big world out there beyond Britain! Go Global!
So you think he'll call a General Election before October?
I don't think so, but I also think he has a much better chance of winning than people think on here. He's still got a lot of star power.
I think he would still be very dependent on his ability to make it a straight choice between him and Jeremy Corbyn, and I don't think the public are in the mind to go along with it.
Especially in Scotland, where it will be framed as Ruth versus Nicola. The SCons will go out of their way to omit both Boris and the word Conservative from their literature.
Comments
(Short a very late, implausible surge from Adam Afriyie).
Hunt looks very good for final 2 I think, would imagine he will collect much of Javid, Stewart, Hancock support.
Edit: still might, probably will be.
Hunt is going to be repeating that at ever thing he does this week.
Do you get it yet?
It’s as clear as day to me that if he becomes PM, he will call a second referendum. Let’s not forget that he called for one immediately after the result of the first one.
I have no great confidence that they will choose the former. I mean take a look at some of @Philip_Thompson's posts today. Scares the living shit out of me.
Boris out to 1.74/1.76 (was 1.5 ish yesterday)
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1138040231528148992
Supporting Hunt means buying into the idea that he can stave off a GE that he would lose because of Farage. But Hunt would be May mk 2, so success is excluded.
And he's right.
Boris+30
Leadsom -115 (was more but I am chicken)
Hunt +450
Gove +900
Javid +200
Stewart +50
McVey +1000
I think we should be wary about assuming Boris is an autowin with the membership. There's limited evidence, and he certainly has the potential to put his foot in it.
Would Hunt survive a VONC? I think he would. There may be a few ERGers who would vote against their party and lose the whip, but there are others in other parties who would prefer to give Hunt a chance rather than lose their own seats in a general election. And the DUP would support him rather than lose their stranglehold in a GE.
I wonder if we see a surprise runner today, to add to the surprise non-runners?
Remainers, especially strong ones, would like to give Boris a kicking. He's lost support in London but beyond the M25 can be portrayed as a London-centric chap (because he's been mayor there twice). Plus his court jester schtick has worn thin, and he's shown himself incompetent in high office.
Perhaps someone who has repeatedly won elections as a Tory mayor of a Labour city? Someone who led the leave side to an unexpected victory perhaps?
Considering we want two very different outcomes that looks like a great thing to me.
Though there are plenty of tales being told by idiots, strutting and fretting their hours on the stage.
Off topic - of course Boris wants to hand £10bn to the Tory membership in a tax cut and of course they like Boris for some reason. Haven't worked out how much cash I would save but it would be nice...
The fact that some sore losers from 2016 who still haven't reconciled themselves to the fact they lostdon't like him for it doesn't mean he wouldn't be successful a fourth time.
Personally I'd be astounded if Boris Johnson could get the Conservatives to 33%.
If he wins nothing has changed.
Yougov last week had a Boris led Tory Party on 29%, Labour and the LDs on 22% each and the Brexit Party on 13% giving a Tory majority of 16
https://reaction.life/boris-no-deal-pitch-wont-save-the-tories/
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/10/flood-warning-month-rain-two-days-uk
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48554853
they should go for a second ref, no deal vs revoke. It would stand a fair chance of winning. A GE pre brexit would be much more dangerous, and would at this point likely see Corbyn get in.
The Conservatives would be pummelled.
"39 billion reasons to vote for Boris"
"£350m per week to the NHS"
"Delivering the promises of Brexit"
Etc...
I think it would do very well.