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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The idea that BoJo has some magical means of reaching LAB or p

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The idea that BoJo has some magical means of reaching LAB or pro-Brexit voters isn’t backed up by his record

Let's not forget that LAB secured a 6.5% swing against Boris at GE2017. That hardly suggests he can reach voters that others can't pic.twitter.com/DpsvZahKoN

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,649
    Rory doing a Q & A on WatO.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    FPT

    Yet despite that, despite the proximity, despite the trading group, despite the fact the protectionist trading group forbids us from signing deals elsewhere . . . elsewhere still forms the majority of our trade.

    Oh my goodness, this is the level of stupidity of the 32ish percent who want to wreck our economy. It is quite staggering. It is beyond parody.

    As I said earlier, this is like being a supplier of fresh produce and saying; "hey we do slightly more business with Budgens, Spar shops and several hundred independent shops than we do to Tesco, Waitrose and Aldi. Let's tell the big guys to fuck themselves. They need us more than we need them." MMM GOOD BUSINESS SENSE!!
    No, this is like being a farmer has previously signed a very lopsided deal with Tesco's but now finds their goods being demanded by plenty of alternatives including Budgens, Spar, several hundred independents . . . and yes, Waitrose and Aldi. But currently Tesco's writes their contract terms and conditions and the farmer is only allowed to trade on favourable terms exclusively with Tesco's.

    So the farmer decides to continue to trade with Tesco's but exercises a clause to get out of the exclusivity deal with them. Now they can sign favourable deals with Waitrose, Aldi, Spar and yes hundreds of independents too.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    I fear Boris will be even more of a South-and-Home-Counties focussed leader than even the most recent inhabitants of the office.

    He’s pure SNP gold. Boris is yet another toxin being applied to the Union’s body politic.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,752
    Mike's overall point here is very sound. I could quibble with some of the assertions - Boris's win in 2012 *was* an impressive achievement for a Tory candidate in London at the time (much more so than his win in 2008 was) - but the polling stats suggest there is nothing magical about his appeal, backing up his direct electoal data. Besides, 2012 was seven years ago now and both Boris and Britain's politics have changed greatly since then.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,643
    edited June 10
    6.5 v 6.2 feels like it's in the margin of error. Though he certainly didn't buck the trend like Hendon and Finchley & Golders Green.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,481

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878

    Mike's overall point here is very sound. I could quibble with some of the assertions - Boris's win in 2012 *was* an impressive achievement for a Tory candidate in London at the time (much more so than his win in 2008 was) - but the polling stats suggest there is nothing magical about his appeal, backing up his direct electoal data. Besides, 2012 was seven years ago now and both Boris and Britain's politics have changed greatly since then.

    2012 was 7 years ago.

    But 2016 was 3 years ago and he was up against David Cameron then, the most successful UK leader post-Blair.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 10
    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    I am enjoying Rory's campaign - but is he actually meeting members of the electorate (i.e. Tory MPs) much?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,481
    tlg86 said:

    6.5 v 6.2 feels like it's in the margin of error. Though he certainly didn't buck the trend like Hendon and Finchley & Golders Green.

    But judging what is said about him you'd have expected a substantially better performance than the London Tory average.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,040
    edited June 10
    A lot of Johnsin backers are relying ton things from quite some time ago in a different environment to speak to his inevitable success. Its possible, but riskier than they admit. And polling is not cast iron proof in his favour either.
    Nigelb said:

    But are cyborgs subject to the criminal law ?
    Lol. That'll be Javids next announcement, to spook him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713
    edited June 10
    FPT: I see PB Tories are already assuming the fading out of the Brexit Party and the inevitable supremacy of Boris.

    But this doesn’t look the most likely outcome if an election were held in 2019. I would put my money on a Labour minority government, supported unto paralysis by the SNP and the Lib Dems, and a referendum on Brexit.

    Perversely, and as May knew but could not execute against due to severe character flaws:

    1. the Tories are doomed in any GE unless they Brexit.
    2. Brexit cannot take place without:
    a) A Cross-House compromise, now likely to include a referendum, or:
    b) A GE.

    I would argue that 2a is not even open to Boris due to his character defects (namely, complete dishonesty and unreliability).

    Hunt needs to use his honeymoon to lay out the options to the country. If we want to Brexit, we likely need another referendum to do so - because of unwillingness to compromise on both sides.

    I do not believe Hunt will get passed the membership though. The Tories are turkeys voting for Christmas and the debate is about the precise colour of trussing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    Boris Johnson: that joke isn't funny any more.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,731
    When is The Good Ship Boris leaving dock? :D
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    FPT: I see PB Tories are already assuming the fading out of the Brexit Party and the inevitable supremacy of Boris.

    But this doesn’t look the most likely outcome if an election were held in 2019. I would put my money on a Labour minority government, supported unto paralysis by the SNP and the Lib Dems, and a referendum on Brexit.

    Perversely, and as May knew but could not execute against due to severe character flaws:

    1. the Tories are doomed in any GE unless they Brexit.
    2. Brexit cannot take place without:
    a) A Cross-House compromise, now likely to include a referendum, or:
    b) A GE.

    I would argue that 2a is not even open to Boris due to his character defects (namely, complete dishonesty and unreliability).

    Hunt needs to use his honeymoon to lay out the options to the country. If we want to Brexit, we likely need another referendum to do so - because of unwillingness to compromise on both sides.

    I do not believe Hunt will get passed the membership though. The Tories are turkeys voting for Christmas and the debate is about the precise colour of trussing.

    Good summary.

    You could have made it briefer: the Tories are screwed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,806
    I don't know Mike, Boris fronted the hugely successful Leave campaign and I expect a GE would be run on the same basis. It will boil down to one side with catchy lines and slogans vs the other trying to explain everything and being riven with splits. If there is a GE I'd make Boris the favourite to stay on as PM and possibly even bring back a majority. 40% against a split opposition would result in a a majority.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713

    Boris Johnson: that joke isn't funny any more.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to say that it could be an “Emperor’s New Clothes” moment.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,786

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,073
    edited June 10
    The important angle to the closeness of this seat is that unless he chicken runs, an early general election, whether called deliberately to get a deal through or triggered by an attempt at No Deal that results in losing his majority, strongly risks ending his career, and may well end his career even if he wins it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,731
    edited June 10
    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    If he becomes leader/PM I suspect a safe seat will be found for him quite quickly... A vacancy could be coming up in Maidenhead quite shortly. ;)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358
    edited June 10
    Regarding the electoral appeal of Boris in a general election, the first question to ask is: when would such a GE take place? There are three main scenarios:

    1. Before the 31st October. I'm not entirely convinced that this is a practical scenario, but let's assume it is. What would the pitch of Boris be in this case? If it's 'back me and we'll leave willy-nilly, deal or no deal', then presumably he'd be hoping to win back voters from the Brexit Party, in the hope that these would outnumber those lost from the sane wing of the party. That looks to me a pretty forlorn hope: do people really think that Farage is going to go away just because Boris is PM? Of course not - he'd be out there saying that Boris was planning to betray the country and that a vote for the Brexit Party was the only way to keep the Tories honest. Meanwhile Boris would have the problem that any attempt to keep No Deal as a viable option would split the party; the likes of David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, Phil Hammond and a hundred to so other MPs are not going to suddenly decide that No Deal is anything other than a complete disaster. Boris would have to equivocate, which would feed Farage's betrayal myth.

    2. In the months following the 31st October. This scenario is easy to dispose of; either we'd have left in chaos, in which case the Conservative Party would be destroyed by the fallout, or Boris would have reneged on his brain-dead 31st October commitment, in which case the anger and shouts of 'Betrayal!' would be deafening.

    3. Much later, having successfully left the EU on time. Well, if you can a way to get there, there's a dozen of so wannabe leaders who would love to hear what it is.

    In other words, the electoral appeal or otherwise of Boris is actually pretty irrelevant, since the logic of Boris' position is such that any election is highly likely to be under catastrophic conditions for the Conservative Party

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,073
    In fairness I guess his own seat wasn't really the election he's been positioning himself for: For the last few years he's been running for the leadership of the Tory Party. Part of his political strength is his flexibility and audacity in reinventing himself for whatever voters he needs to appeal to next
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    TOPPING said:

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
    Independence and free trade aren't unicorns. Its what plenty of other countries already have, including one I lived in for a long time and people there seem quite happy with their lot.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,073

    Regarding the electoral appeal of Boris in a general election, the first question to ask is: when would such a GE take place? There are three main scenarios:

    ...

    3. Much later, having successfully left the EU on time. Well, if you can a way to get there, there's a dozen of so wannabe leaders who would love to hear what it is.

    In other words, the electoral appeal or otherwise of Boris is actually pretty irrelevant, since the logic of Boris' position is that any election is highly likely to be under catastrophic conditions for the Conservative Party

    The non-catastrophic way is via a referendum, which gets you to (3), and also gives you

    4. Much later, having cancelled Brexit in accordance with the referendum

    I think (3) is very good for him, and (4) is bad, but there's plenty of time between now and 2022 to change the narrative.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,786

    TOPPING said:

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
    Independence and free trade aren't unicorns. Its what plenty of other countries already have, including one I lived in for a long time and people there seem quite happy with their lot.
    North Korea?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,717

    TOPPING said:

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
    Independence and free trade aren't unicorns. Its what plenty of other countries already have, including one I lived in for a long time and people there seem quite happy with their lot.
    Of course those are possible. What is not possible is complete independence and a free open border with Ireland. We need to choose one or the other, or a fudge in the middle (the WA) and the Tory/DUP coalition is not willing to accept any of those three options. It is not more complicated than that. It is up to us to choose, not search for magic unicorns that take away our responsibility for choosing an imperfect option.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,331
    edited June 10
    Nearly 70% of Tory MPs have backed a candidate.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 61, Gove 35, Hunt 35, Raab 24, Javid 19, Hancock 14, Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,503

    TOPPING said:

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
    Independence and free trade aren't unicorns. Its what plenty of other countries already have, including one I lived in for a long time and people there seem quite happy with their lot.
    As you are talking about free trade - what tariff policy should we implement (after all that is the basis of trade)..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
    Independence and free trade aren't unicorns. Its what plenty of other countries already have, including one I lived in for a long time and people there seem quite happy with their lot.
    North Korea?
    Australia
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 828

    Regarding the electoral appeal of Boris in a general election, the first question to ask is: when would such a GE take place? There are three main scenarios:

    1. Before the 31st October. I'm not entirely convinced that this is a practical scenario, but let's assume it is. What would the pitch of Boris be in this case? If it's 'back me and we'll leave willy-nilly, deal or no deal', then presumably he'd be hoping to win back voters from the Brexit Party, in the hope that these would outnumber those lost from the sane wing of the party. That looks to me a pretty forlorn hope: do people really think that Farage is going to go away just because Boris is PM? Of course not - he'd be out there saying that Boris was planning to betray the country and that a vote for the Brexit Party was the only way to keep the Tories honest. Meanwhile Boris would have the problem that any attempt to keep No Deal as a viable option would split the party; the likes of David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, Phil Hammond and a hundred to so other MPs are not going to suddenly decide that No Deal is anything other than a complete disaster. Boris would have to equivocate, which would feed Farage's betrayal myth.

    2. In the months following the 31st October. This scenario is easy to dispose of; either we'd have left in chaos, in which case the Conservative Party would be destroyed by the fallout, or Boris would have reneged on his brain-dead 31st October commitment, in which case the anger and shouts of 'Betrayal!' would be deafening.

    3. Much later, having successfully left the EU on time. Well, if you can a way to get there, there's a dozen of so wannabe leaders who would love to hear what it is.

    In other words, the electoral appeal or otherwise of Boris is actually pretty irrelevant, since the logic of Boris' position is such that any election is highly likely to be under catastrophic conditions for the Conservative Party

    Very good analysis. Only one thing to add. Boris is the only candidate with the potential to change the weather. Other candidates are pretty decent in normal circumstances - Hunt, Hancock, Stewart are very excellent safe pairs of hands with good ideas. Stewart in particular has the quality of courtesy which is so dreadfully lacking generally.

    None of this is any use because on any rational analysis - like Richard Nabavi's - the Tories are stuffed in every direction. Only a weather changing, charisma laden candidate holds out any chance - and that a small one of avoiding disaster. As to how - that's like asking Thatcher in 1978 or Churchill in 1939. Boris will still win, unless he absolutely blows up. Stewart and Hunt and could be in a tremendous battle to be the last conventional candidate standing

  • llefllef Posts: 190
    The Tory mp for Montgomery will be proposing Leadsom, but sounds like he will be voting for Jeremy Hunt...

    "Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper.

    He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson."
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,786

    Regarding the electoral appeal of Boris in a general election, the first question to ask is: when would such a GE take place? There are three main scenarios:

    1. Before the 31st October. I'm not entirely convinced that this is a practical scenario, but let's assume it is. What would the pitch of Boris be in this case? If it's 'back me and we'll leave willy-nilly, deal or no deal', then presumably he'd be hoping to win back voters from the Brexit Party, in the hope that these would outnumber those lost from the sane wing of the party. That looks to me a pretty forlorn hope: do people really think that Farage is going to go away just because Boris is PM? Of course not - he'd be out there saying that Boris was planning to betray the country and that a vote for the Brexit Party was the only way to keep the Tories honest. Meanwhile Boris would have the problem that any attempt to keep No Deal as a viable option would split the party; the likes of David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, Phil Hammond and a hundred to so other MPs are not going to suddenly decide that No Deal is anything other than a complete disaster. Boris would have to equivocate, which would feed Farage's betrayal myth.

    2. In the months following the 31st October. This scenario is easy to dispose of; either we'd have left in chaos, in which case the Conservative Party would be destroyed by the fallout, or Boris would have reneged on his brain-dead 31st October commitment, in which case the anger and shouts of 'Betrayal!' would be deafening.

    3. Much later, having successfully left the EU on time. Well, if you can a way to get there, there's a dozen of so wannabe leaders who would love to hear what it is.

    In other words, the electoral appeal or otherwise of Boris is actually pretty irrelevant, since the logic of Boris' position is such that any election is highly likely to be under catastrophic conditions for the Conservative Party

    Correct which brings us back to Hunt's threat of a GE with Boris because of those scenarios, one of them would almost certainly transpire and hence Hunt wins.

    Yes it's wishful thinking but as with the WA everything else is impossible. Then again, once you have a taste of unicorn soup it's difficult to go back to mulligatawny.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,298
    So, any verdicts on Rory on WATO ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314

    Regarding the electoral appeal of Boris in a general election, the first question to ask is: when would such a GE take place? There are three main scenarios:

    ...

    3. Much later, having successfully left the EU on time. Well, if you can a way to get there, there's a dozen of so wannabe leaders who would love to hear what it is.

    In other words, the electoral appeal or otherwise of Boris is actually pretty irrelevant, since the logic of Boris' position is that any election is highly likely to be under catastrophic conditions for the Conservative Party

    The non-catastrophic way is via a referendum, which gets you to (3), and also gives you

    4. Much later, having cancelled Brexit in accordance with the referendum

    I think (3) is very good for him, and (4) is bad, but there's plenty of time between now and 2022 to change the narrative.
    Brexit party start to eat the Tory vote whole if we don't leave. Next GE splitting it enough to give Corbyn power - following one almost complete wipeout for the Tories as Nige supplants them on the right.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358
    Hilarious stuff from Esther McVey:

    Asked how she would ensure her plan for a no-deal Brexit happened when MPs had previously opposed the idea, McVey – who has refused to rule out proroguing the chamber – said she would deny them any votes on the issue:

    "The prime minister kept bringing motions back to the floor, and that allowed people to put amendment to it, that allowed what precipitated going forwards. And that’s when you saw the antics of Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin, turning parliament on its head.

    But that only happened because the prime minister kept bringing back motions to the floor of the house. So really we need to stop bringing things to the floor of the house, and the default position is to leave through article 50."


    A novel programme for government, to be sure! Quite how it fits in with no-deal preparations is a question I'll leave for others.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/jun/10/tory-leadership-boris-johnsons-tax-cut-plan-would-never-get-through-commons-says-leadsom-live-news



  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,806

    Hilarious stuff from Esther McVey:

    Asked how she would ensure her plan for a no-deal Brexit happened when MPs had previously opposed the idea, McVey – who has refused to rule out proroguing the chamber – said she would deny them any votes on the issue:

    "The prime minister kept bringing motions back to the floor, and that allowed people to put amendment to it, that allowed what precipitated going forwards. And that’s when you saw the antics of Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin, turning parliament on its head.

    But that only happened because the prime minister kept bringing back motions to the floor of the house. So really we need to stop bringing things to the floor of the house, and the default position is to leave through article 50."


    A novel programme for government, to be sure! Quite how it fits in with no-deal preparations is a question I'll leave for others.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/jun/10/tory-leadership-boris-johnsons-tax-cut-plan-would-never-get-through-commons-says-leadsom-live-news



    I think she's genuinely gone insane.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    llef said:

    The Tory mp for Montgomery will be proposing Leadsom, but sounds like he will be voting for Jeremy Hunt...

    "Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper.

    He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson."

    He's certainly covering the bases there.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,111
    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    I am enjoying Rory's campaign - but is he actually meeting members of the electorate (i.e. Tory MPs) much?

    In the local elections the Tories won all the wards in Boris's seat and overall made net gains within Hillingdon Borough.

    I would say that Hillingdon is a very different story to Chingford, which is very much a diminishing island of blue surrounded by red East London.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
    Independence and free trade aren't unicorns. Its what plenty of other countries already have, including one I lived in for a long time and people there seem quite happy with their lot.
    As you are talking about free trade - what tariff policy should we implement (after all that is the basis of trade)..
    If it was up to me then pretty much 0% across the board would be my ideal.

    Realistically probably start off with the EU's baseline but then drop to 0% anything we don't produce ourselves [like olives etc]
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,752

    Mike's overall point here is very sound. I could quibble with some of the assertions - Boris's win in 2012 *was* an impressive achievement for a Tory candidate in London at the time (much more so than his win in 2008 was) - but the polling stats suggest there is nothing magical about his appeal, backing up his direct electoal data. Besides, 2012 was seven years ago now and both Boris and Britain's politics have changed greatly since then.

    2012 was 7 years ago.

    But 2016 was 3 years ago and he was up against David Cameron then, the most successful UK leader post-Blair.
    I would be very wary of reading across from the referendum result to the leaders of Leave. I'm far from convinced that Leave would have won had the electorate expected those leading the campaign to then implement the result.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,220
    It should also be remebered, Mike, that at the time of the Mayoral elections he was a prominent and outspoken Remainer - or so he said, anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    edited June 10
    llef said:

    The Tory mp for Montgomery will be proposing Leadsom, but sounds like he will be voting for Jeremy Hunt...

    "Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper.

    He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson."

    The mystery Betfair backer must think the contest is being held under Labour party rules -you could perhaps try and justify 9-1 for Leadsom in that scenario.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,503

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
    Independence and free trade aren't unicorns. Its what plenty of other countries already have, including one I lived in for a long time and people there seem quite happy with their lot.
    As you are talking about free trade - what tariff policy should we implement (after all that is the basis of trade)..
    If it was up to me then pretty much 0% across the board would be my ideal.

    Realistically probably start off with the EU's baseline but then drop to 0% anything we don't produce ourselves [like olives etc]
    Thanks for confirming that you don't think through the consequences of what looks like a minor decision. You really need to check how South Korea has managed to get trade agreements with virtually everyone...

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,659
    Scott_P said:
    That's absolutely the correct decision. It will of course be hugely unpopular.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,752
    GIN1138 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    If he becomes leader/PM I suspect a safe seat will be found for him quite quickly... A vacancy could be coming up in Maidenhead quite shortly. ;)
    I don't think he could. To chicken-run from a seat that wasn't being abolished would indicate such a lack of confidence in his own ability to win that it would endlessly dog him.

    Thatcher didn't run from Finchley and her majority was smaller after Oct 1974 than Boris's is now.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767
    llef said:

    The Tory mp for Montgomery will be proposing Leadsom, but sounds like he will be voting for Jeremy Hunt...

    "Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper.

    He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson."

    This is what we expected: pressure from CCHQ to avoid an all-male contest.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,741

    Scott_P said:
    That's absolutely the correct decision. It will of course be hugely unpopular.
    It was however a very common view expressed during the consultation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,509

    Scott_P said:
    That's absolutely the correct decision. It will of course be hugely unpopular.
    Interesting that they've made the announcement now rather than allow the new Tory leader to do it.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,220
    edited June 10

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    I am enjoying Rory's campaign - but is he actually meeting members of the electorate (i.e. Tory MPs) much?

    In the local elections the Tories won all the wards in Boris's seat and overall made net gains within Hillingdon Borough.

    I would say that Hillingdon is a very different story to Chingford, which is very much a diminishing island of blue surrounded by red East London.
    HYUFD has assured us all that Boris's seat at the next GE is perfectly safe, which is as much indication as anyone should need that it's a goner.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767

    GIN1138 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    If he becomes leader/PM I suspect a safe seat will be found for him quite quickly... A vacancy could be coming up in Maidenhead quite shortly. ;)
    I don't think he could. To chicken-run from a seat that wasn't being abolished would indicate such a lack of confidence in his own ability to win that it would endlessly dog him.

    Thatcher didn't run from Finchley and her majority was smaller after Oct 1974 than Boris's is now.
    I thought Conservative rules had been changed to stop chicken runs. Have I got that wrong?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,717
    Scott_P said:
    Why is this the BBC's decision to make rather than the Treasury? Right decision but should be considered as part of the overall Govt budget rather than left to a quango.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,220
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's absolutely the correct decision. It will of course be hugely unpopular.
    It was however a very common view expressed during the consultation.
    Jack W will be livid but it has to be the correct decision.

    In fact anything that annoys Jack is a good thing.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Scott_P said:
    That's absolutely the correct decision. It will of course be hugely unpopular.
    Wow that is going to be controversial.

    I thought they might extend it at least to pensioners in receipt of council tax benefit who just miss out on pension credit. And I presume those on pension credit aged below 75 still have to pay.

    Probably going to lead to more scrutiny - poor pensioner has to give up watching telly as she can't afford her £160 licence fee while Graham Norton and Gary Lineker get a £200k pay rise!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,206

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Yes, of course. "Officially", if it means anything, means de jure rather than de facto. "Acting" means de facto, not de jure.

    De Jure the Leader is recorded here: http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP52

    Officers
    Leader The Rt Hon Theresa May MP
    You mean the Conservative Party constitution declares that the leader shall be the person identified on that web page?

    If you say so, I bow to your superior knowledge, but I find it surprising.
    No the law does.
    Out of curiosity, can you quote the wording of that law?
    IANAL but from the Electoral Commission website:

    Registration requirements for political parties

    When registering, parties need to provide us with some information about their party structure, including a financial scheme, their constitution and details of any branches of the party that manage their own finances (“accounting units”). They must also appoint people to the official roles of:

    Party leader
    Treasurer
    Nominating officer

    Registered parties must keep details of these roles up to date and inform us of any changes.


    No update to the "official role" of "Party leader" has been done yet, despite the fact that the party "must keep details of these roles up to date and inform ... of any changes".
    Thanks. Precisely as I thought, the law supposedly stipulating that the party leader was the person named on the Electoral Commission website turns out to be a requirement that the parties keep the EC up-to-date.

    Could some people here make themselves any more absurd if they tried?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,509

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    I am enjoying Rory's campaign - but is he actually meeting members of the electorate (i.e. Tory MPs) much?

    In the local elections the Tories won all the wards in Boris's seat and overall made net gains within Hillingdon Borough.

    I would say that Hillingdon is a very different story to Chingford, which is very much a diminishing island of blue surrounded by red East London.
    HYUFD has assured us all that Boris's seat at the next GE is perfectly safe, which is as much indication as anyone should need that it's a goner.
    Hunt's seat is very vulnerable to the Lib Dems if the Tory vote splinters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,741

    Mike's overall point here is very sound. I could quibble with some of the assertions - Boris's win in 2012 *was* an impressive achievement for a Tory candidate in London at the time (much more so than his win in 2008 was) - but the polling stats suggest there is nothing magical about his appeal, backing up his direct electoal data. Besides, 2012 was seven years ago now and both Boris and Britain's politics have changed greatly since then.

    My vote ended up in Boris’s pile in 2012 - the only time in my life when I have expressed a preference for a Tory - and it had nothing to do with his personality or supposedly election winning qualities.

    Contrarywise, the poor performance in Uxbridge was due to demographic change which is affecting formerly white outer London particularly. But Mike is right that it is hard to discern any Boris upside.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    I am enjoying Rory's campaign - but is he actually meeting members of the electorate (i.e. Tory MPs) much?

    In the local elections the Tories won all the wards in Boris's seat and overall made net gains within Hillingdon Borough.

    I would say that Hillingdon is a very different story to Chingford, which is very much a diminishing island of blue surrounded by red East London.
    HYUFD has assured us all that Boris's seat at the next GE is perfectly safe, which is as much indication as anyone should need that it's a goner.
    Who to though... Electoral Calculus has it down as a Brexit party gain !

    Chance of
    winning
    CON
    15%
    LAB
    23%
    LIB
    17%
    UKIP
    0%
    Green
    3%
    Brexit
    42%

    I'd say Boris' chances were better than 15%, and the Greens worse than 3% - but that's as far as I'd go at the moment.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,503
    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's absolutely the correct decision. It will of course be hugely unpopular.
    Wow that is going to be controversial.

    I thought they might extend it at least to pensioners in receipt of council tax benefit who just miss out on pension credit. And I presume those on pension credit aged below 75 still have to pay.

    Probably going to lead to more scrutiny - poor pensioner has to give up watching telly as she can't afford her £160 licence fee while Graham Norton and Gary Lineker get a £200k pay rise!
    The BBC needs all the money it can get - the world is changing and TV isn't actually that important anymore.

    I don't think any of the children I know actually watch any TV nowadays. It's all Youtube, Movies and Podcasts.

    When I went to Uni, one thing you had to sort out was a TV licence, nowadays why would you when you don't see any point in owning a TV....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,360
    Boris Boris Boris, Hunt Hunt Hunt, Rory Rory Rory, so much noise around these guys, so little heard about people like Raab and Javid. They are still serious candidates, remember. Especially the latter, Sajid Javid. He is the Home Secretary and if elected would be our first Muslim PM, yet all I have gleaned regarding his USP from the mainstream media in the last few days is that he "punches bullies first" and that he "likes a cigarette and a cheeky nandos". Fine, as far as it goes, but c'mon ...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358
    What was all that stuff about the Tories unfairly feather-bedding their core vote of older people?


  • eekeek Posts: 5,503

    Scott_P said:
    Why is this the BBC's decision to make rather than the Treasury? Right decision but should be considered as part of the overall Govt budget rather than left to a quango.
    Because the Treasury said they would no longer be giving the BBC any money in return for the BBC providing over 75s with a free licence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,741
    eek said:

    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's absolutely the correct decision. It will of course be hugely unpopular.
    Wow that is going to be controversial.

    I thought they might extend it at least to pensioners in receipt of council tax benefit who just miss out on pension credit. And I presume those on pension credit aged below 75 still have to pay.

    Probably going to lead to more scrutiny - poor pensioner has to give up watching telly as she can't afford her £160 licence fee while Graham Norton and Gary Lineker get a £200k pay rise!
    The BBC needs all the money it can get - the world is changing and TV isn't actually that important anymore.

    I don't think any of the children I know actually watch any TV nowadays. It's all Youtube, Movies and Podcasts.

    When I went to Uni, one thing you had to sort out was a TV licence, nowadays why would you when you don't see any point in owning a TV....
    Isn’t the truth that TV (programmes) are as popular as ever, but they are being seen via Amazon, Netflix, iPlayer or YouTube rather than arriving through the ether to an aerial on your rooftop?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,220

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    I am enjoying Rory's campaign - but is he actually meeting members of the electorate (i.e. Tory MPs) much?

    In the local elections the Tories won all the wards in Boris's seat and overall made net gains within Hillingdon Borough.

    I would say that Hillingdon is a very different story to Chingford, which is very much a diminishing island of blue surrounded by red East London.
    HYUFD has assured us all that Boris's seat at the next GE is perfectly safe, which is as much indication as anyone should need that it's a goner.
    Hunt's seat is very vulnerable to the Lib Dems if the Tory vote splinters.
    It is hard to see how it does not splinter, and Hunt would be just one casualty amongst many.

    We have yet to be treated by any Candidate to an explanation of how Brexit is to proceed without inflicting heavy damage on the Party, or even the Country. The explanation for this is that there isn't one, regardless of who the new Guv is.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,111
    Pulpstar said:

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    I am enjoying Rory's campaign - but is he actually meeting members of the electorate (i.e. Tory MPs) much?

    In the local elections the Tories won all the wards in Boris's seat and overall made net gains within Hillingdon Borough.

    I would say that Hillingdon is a very different story to Chingford, which is very much a diminishing island of blue surrounded by red East London.
    HYUFD has assured us all that Boris's seat at the next GE is perfectly safe, which is as much indication as anyone should need that it's a goner.
    Who to though... Electoral Calculus has it down as a Brexit party gain !

    Chance of
    winning
    CON
    15%
    LAB
    23%
    LIB
    17%
    UKIP
    0%
    Green
    3%
    Brexit
    42%

    I'd say Boris' chances were better than 15%, and the Greens worse than 3% - but that's as far as I'd go at the moment.
    Let me clarify - I don't think Boris's seat is in danger from demographic change but clearly if the Tories poll 19% then it is in danger as are almost all Tory seats.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,040

    What was all that stuff about the Tories unfairly feather-bedding their core vote of older people?


    When they dont they suffer for trying to do right for once.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 42
    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    According to Guido Fawkes: Johnson currently has 63 backers while 149 have opted for other candidates and 118 are undeclared. If we assume that the “undeclareds” are likely to be on the government payroll and unlikely to back Johnson, how does he get to 111?

    If he took all 25 Raab backers (unlikely) this still only gets him to 88.

    I accept that he will pick up some support from other candidates when they are eliminated, but Johnson`s price looks way too short to me.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,526

    Mike's overall point here is very sound. I could quibble with some of the assertions - Boris's win in 2012 *was* an impressive achievement for a Tory candidate in London at the time (much more so than his win in 2008 was) - but the polling stats suggest there is nothing magical about his appeal, backing up his direct electoal data. Besides, 2012 was seven years ago now and both Boris and Britain's politics have changed greatly since then.

    2012 was 7 years ago.

    But 2016 was 3 years ago and he was up against David Cameron then, the most successful UK leader post-Blair.
    I would be very wary of reading across from the referendum result to the leaders of Leave. I'm far from convinced that Leave would have won had the electorate expected those leading the campaign to then implement the result.
    That’s good very funny
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,002

    Scott_P said:
    Why is this the BBC's decision to make rather than the Treasury? Right decision but should be considered as part of the overall Govt budget rather than left to a quango.
    This way a Conservative Chancellor avoids the blame.
  • GIN1138 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    If he becomes leader/PM I suspect a safe seat will be found for him quite quickly... A vacancy could be coming up in Maidenhead quite shortly. ;)
    I don't think he could. To chicken-run from a seat that wasn't being abolished would indicate such a lack of confidence in his own ability to win that it would endlessly dog him.

    Thatcher didn't run from Finchley and her majority was smaller after Oct 1974 than Boris's is now.
    Agree with you David. Especially when public distrust in politics is high, Boris running for another seat, especially given the doubts about his character, would kill the Tories in a campaign. Farage would have a field day.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    What was all that stuff about the Tories unfairly feather-bedding their core vote of older people?


    I believe the Brexit party appears to want to make the licence free for everyone - by abolishing it entirely!

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is not just 2008 and 2012 that Boris led successful campaigns.

    He also successfully led 2016 too.

    You mean when he was effectively working for Mr. Putin.
    And effectively working against Cameron, Labour [officially], the IMF, most trade unions, most business lobbies, Obama and more.

    Yet Boris won, defeating Cameron, Obama etc - that surely is more evidence that he can win than in one constituency a swing of 6.5 vs a swing of 6.2
    We get it. There is a strong market for unicorns and it is entirely likely that unicorn demand has not diminished over the past n years. They are still unicorns, however. And no more attainable now than they have been in the past.

    But if we're choosing I will go for a sugar pink and lime green one please.
    Independence and free trade aren't unicorns. Its what plenty of other countries already have, including one I lived in for a long time and people there seem quite happy with their lot.
    As you are talking about free trade - what tariff policy should we implement (after all that is the basis of trade)..
    If it was up to me then pretty much 0% across the board would be my ideal.

    Realistically probably start off with the EU's baseline but then drop to 0% anything we don't produce ourselves [like olives etc]
    But earlier you were telling us that freer trade is bound to lead to a balance of payments deficit given the UKs addiction to credit.

    You are inconsistent.
    Or a troll.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,295

    Regarding the electoral appeal of Boris in a general election, the first question to ask is: when would such a GE take place? There are three main scenarios:

    1. Before the 31st October. I'm not entirely convinced that this is a practical scenario, but let's assume it is. What would the pitch of Boris be in this case? If it's 'back me and we'll leave willy-nilly, deal or no deal', then presumably he'd be hoping to win back voters from the Brexit Party, in the hope that these would outnumber those lost from the sane wing of the party. That looks to me a pretty forlorn hope: do people really think that Farage is going to go away just because Boris is PM? Of course not - he'd be out there saying that Boris was planning to betray the country and that a vote for the Brexit Party was the only way to keep the Tories honest. Meanwhile Boris would have the problem that any attempt to keep No Deal as a viable option would split the party; the likes of David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, Phil Hammond and a hundred to so other MPs are not going to suddenly decide that No Deal is anything other than a complete disaster. Boris would have to equivocate, which would feed Farage's betrayal myth.

    2. In the months following the 31st October. This scenario is easy to dispose of; either we'd have left in chaos, in which case the Conservative Party would be destroyed by the fallout, or Boris would have reneged on his brain-dead 31st October commitment, in which case the anger and shouts of 'Betrayal!' would be deafening.

    3. Much later, having successfully left the EU on time. Well, if you can a way to get there, there's a dozen of so wannabe leaders who would love to hear what it is.

    In other words, the electoral appeal or otherwise of Boris is actually pretty irrelevant, since the logic of Boris' position is such that any election is highly likely to be under catastrophic conditions for the Conservative Party

    You do not seem to have considered the possibility that the Opposition may seek to force an election before 31st October via a VNOC.If Boris becomes leader and a few further defections follow from the Tory benches, it would stand a good chance of passing - though the FTPA would require a 2 week delay to ascertain whether an alternative PM can command a majority.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 10
    eek said:

    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's absolutely the correct decision. It will of course be hugely unpopular.
    Wow that is going to be controversial.

    I thought they might extend it at least to pensioners in receipt of council tax benefit who just miss out on pension credit. And I presume those on pension credit aged below 75 still have to pay.

    Probably going to lead to more scrutiny - poor pensioner has to give up watching telly as she can't afford her £160 licence fee while Graham Norton and Gary Lineker get a £200k pay rise!
    The BBC needs all the money it can get - the world is changing and TV isn't actually that important anymore.

    I don't think any of the children I know actually watch any TV nowadays. It's all Youtube, Movies and Podcasts.

    When I went to Uni, one thing you had to sort out was a TV licence, nowadays why would you when you don't see any point in owning a TV....
    Perhaps that could be a question for the leadership candidates.

    When you were at university did have your own telly in your halls or shared student flat and if so did you buy your own tv licence? I expect many students assumed they could rely on their parents licence or the college licence - do we have more potential law breakers?
  • John_McLeanJohn_McLean Posts: 71
    GIN1138 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    If he becomes leader/PM I suspect a safe seat will be found for him quite quickly... A vacancy could be coming up in Maidenhead quite shortly. ;)
    Oh, please, the jokes are writing themselves 🤔
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,509
    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    Only to guarantee a spot, but the more votes the winner gets, the lower the threshold to come second.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358
    justin124 said:

    You do not seem to have considered the possibility that the Opposition may seek to force an election before 31st October via a VNOC.If Boris becomes leader and a few further defections follow from the Tory benches, it would stand a good chance of passing - though the FTPA would require a 2 week delay to ascertain whether an alternative PM can command a majority.

    I think that's unlikely, but in any case it's included in my first scenario.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004

    GIN1138 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    If he becomes leader/PM I suspect a safe seat will be found for him quite quickly... A vacancy could be coming up in Maidenhead quite shortly. ;)
    I don't think he could. To chicken-run from a seat that wasn't being abolished would indicate such a lack of confidence in his own ability to win that it would endlessly dog him.

    Thatcher didn't run from Finchley and her majority was smaller after Oct 1974 than Boris's is now.
    Not to mention that the chance of the Boris-led Tories winning the election and him simultaneously losing his seat is really quite small.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    According to Guido Fawkes: Johnson currently has 63 backers while 149 have opted for other candidates and 118 are undeclared. If we assume that the “undeclareds” are likely to be on the government payroll and unlikely to back Johnson, how does he get to 111?

    If he took all 25 Raab backers (unlikely) this still only gets him to 88.

    I accept that he will pick up some support from other candidates when they are eliminated, but Johnson`s price looks way too short to me.

    Add Mcvey backers. Also there are plenty of bods like Lee Rowley still to declare a support who'll be backing him over the more remainy candidates left.
  • Three thoughts on the leadership contest:

    1. Can't see Boris becoming leader. Nothing rational or logical, just a feeling that he will prove too risky for a lot of Tories.

    2. Do the stories about Gove make it more likely fringe candidates like Leadsom get through as MPs worry about culling the field too much at this stage if one of the other candidates implodes?

    3. The most obvious pairing of candidates in the contest would seem to be Raab/McVey. They both resigned at the same time and seem to hold the same views on how to Brexit. Raab has taken more of a tax cutting line but his comments this morning on lifting lower-paid workers out of the tax bracket brings it closer to McVey's blue-collar conservatism. Depending on the number of McVey's backers, Raab might have a chunky block (but obviously other candidates exiting would help others).
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,492

    FPT

    Yet despite that, despite the proximity, despite the trading group, despite the fact the protectionist trading group forbids us from signing deals elsewhere . . . elsewhere still forms the majority of our trade.

    Oh my goodness, this is the level of stupidity of the 32ish percent who want to wreck our economy. It is quite staggering. It is beyond parody.

    As I said earlier, this is like being a supplier of fresh produce and saying; "hey we do slightly more business with Budgens, Spar shops and several hundred independent shops than we do to Tesco, Waitrose and Aldi. Let's tell the big guys to fuck themselves. They need us more than we need them." MMM GOOD BUSINESS SENSE!!
    No, this is like being a farmer has previously signed a very lopsided deal with Tesco's but now finds their goods being demanded by plenty of alternatives including Budgens, Spar, several hundred independents . . . and yes, Waitrose and Aldi. But currently Tesco's writes their contract terms and conditions and the farmer is only allowed to trade on favourable terms exclusively with Tesco's.

    So the farmer decides to continue to trade with Tesco's but exercises a clause to get out of the exclusivity deal with them. Now they can sign favourable deals with Waitrose, Aldi, Spar and yes hundreds of independents too.
    It isn't remotely like that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,950

    Scott_P said:
    Why is this the BBC's decision to make rather than the Treasury? Right decision but should be considered as part of the overall Govt budget rather than left to a quango.
    Responsibility was transferred to the BBC from the Treasury as part of a long term funding settlement two or three years ago. The BBC budget was not enlarged to compensate, so this was always a likely response.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    According to Guido Fawkes: Johnson currently has 63 backers while 149 have opted for other candidates and 118 are undeclared. If we assume that the “undeclareds” are likely to be on the government payroll and unlikely to back Johnson, how does he get to 111?

    If he took all 25 Raab backers (unlikely) this still only gets him to 88.

    I accept that he will pick up some support from other candidates when they are eliminated, but Johnson`s price looks way too short to me.

    330 Tory mps ???? Have we had an election that we don’t about!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 10
    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    According to Guido Fawkes: Johnson currently has 63 backers while 149 have opted for other candidates and 118 are undeclared. If we assume that the “undeclareds” are likely to be on the government payroll and unlikely to back Johnson, how does he get to 111?

    If he took all 25 Raab backers (unlikely) this still only gets him to 88.

    I accept that he will pick up some support from other candidates when they are eliminated, but Johnson`s price looks way too short to me.

    Leadsom made the final 2 in 2016 on only 84 votes (and there were more Tory MPs then) - it depends how high and low the first and third placed candidate is.

    Johnson is so short because the assumption is he will win the member vote whoever he faces
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,950

    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    Only to guarantee a spot, but the more votes the winner gets, the lower the threshold to come second.
    Alas there aren't 330 - rather 313 IIRC - Tory MPs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,717

    GIN1138 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Could Boris be the first Prime Minister in living memory to win a general election and lose his seat?

    Demographic changes mean Uxbridge won't be a Tory seat much longer - in common with many parts of London - and he will no doubt be subject to a tactical voting campaign. It may depend on whether the Brexit party runs and who the Greens and LDs endorse. Had he not felt the need to commit to a London seat as outgoing Mayor in 2015 he probably would have picked somewhere safer ideally?

    If he becomes leader/PM I suspect a safe seat will be found for him quite quickly... A vacancy could be coming up in Maidenhead quite shortly. ;)
    I don't think he could. To chicken-run from a seat that wasn't being abolished would indicate such a lack of confidence in his own ability to win that it would endlessly dog him.

    Thatcher didn't run from Finchley and her majority was smaller after Oct 1974 than Boris's is now.
    Not to mention that the chance of the Boris-led Tories winning the election and him simultaneously losing his seat is really quite small.
    Thatcher would not have run away from interviews during a campaign, she would have made her case.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,769
    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    According to Guido Fawkes: Johnson currently has 63 backers while 149 have opted for other candidates and 118 are undeclared. If we assume that the “undeclareds” are likely to be on the government payroll and unlikely to back Johnson, how does he get to 111?

    If he took all 25 Raab backers (unlikely) this still only gets him to 88.

    I accept that he will pick up some support from other candidates when they are eliminated, but Johnson`s price looks way too short to me.

    I thought that there was currently 315 Tory MPs. If there was 330 they would have a majority which they don't. Applying your logic the magic number is 105?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,806
    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    According to Guido Fawkes: Johnson currently has 63 backers while 149 have opted for other candidates and 118 are undeclared. If we assume that the “undeclareds” are likely to be on the government payroll and unlikely to back Johnson, how does he get to 111?

    If he took all 25 Raab backers (unlikely) this still only gets him to 88.

    I accept that he will pick up some support from other candidates when they are eliminated, but Johnson`s price looks way too short to me.

    It there were 330 Tory MPs we'd already have left the EU and Theresa would still likely be PM!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 42
    Williamglenn: yes I see your point, but if Boris comes in second with less than 111 how will this affect the membership vote?

    For example, if Hunt mopped up most support and the final tally was, say, Hunt 230 Johnson 100 think of the pressure there would be on members to mirror the MPs choice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,509
    kjohnw said:

    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    According to Guido Fawkes: Johnson currently has 63 backers while 149 have opted for other candidates and 118 are undeclared. If we assume that the “undeclareds” are likely to be on the government payroll and unlikely to back Johnson, how does he get to 111?

    If he took all 25 Raab backers (unlikely) this still only gets him to 88.

    I accept that he will pick up some support from other candidates when they are eliminated, but Johnson`s price looks way too short to me.

    330 Tory mps ???? Have we had an election that we don’t about!
    We had an election that Stocky has expunged from his/her memory. :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,437
    kjohnw said:

    Stocky said:

    There are 330 Tory MPs – so 111 is the magic number needed to get in the final two if my logic holds.

    According to Guido Fawkes: Johnson currently has 63 backers while 149 have opted for other candidates and 118 are undeclared. If we assume that the “undeclareds” are likely to be on the government payroll and unlikely to back Johnson, how does he get to 111?

    If he took all 25 Raab backers (unlikely) this still only gets him to 88.

    I accept that he will pick up some support from other candidates when they are eliminated, but Johnson`s price looks way too short to me.

    330 Tory mps ???? Have we had an election that we don’t about!
    Naught but Tory Propaganda!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,973
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Think it's a mistake to view the referendum result as indicative of approval for or against a given candidate. It went the way it did because the Leave campaign was bad and the Remain campaign was even worse.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 42
    Apologies if I have 330 wrong - but whatever the number my point stands.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,509
    Stocky said:

    Williamglenn: yes I see your point, but if Boris comes in second with less than 111 how will this affect the membership vote?

    For example, if Hunt mopped up most support and the final tally was, say, Hunt 230 Johnson 100 think of the pressure there would be on members to mirror the MPs choice.

    We still have several rounds of voting to eliminate candidates so I think it's premature to put a ceiling on anyone's vote.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,331
    313 Tory MPs. 105 votes needed to guarantee getting into the final two.
This discussion has been closed.