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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON leadership race is now down to ten with the first MP vote on Thursday

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,087
    primo
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,710
    edited June 10
    Boris launch is supposed to be tomorrow I think (and he's said to be taking question from the MSM)

    So we shall see what happens...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,547
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris launch is supposed to be tomorrow I think (and he's said to be taking question from the MSM)

    So we shall see what happens...

    Lay him now then will be 3s by tea.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    Rory's focussed on getting to TV debates:

  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,160
    One slip by Hunt and we could end up with Johnson versus Leadsom in the members' ballot.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,933
    edited June 10
    7th like Loathsome
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221
    Chris said:

    One slip by Hunt and we could end up with Johnson versus Leadsom in the members' ballot.

    More likely Boris v Raab or Javid
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221
    Boris will be launching his campaign tomorrow so you can wait to see what he says then
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 817
    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 151
    algarkirk said:

    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)

    what if bottom 2 have same number of votes? shoot out?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,049

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Risking oversimplification, is this a fair analysis of the job in hand? What the new PM has to do as an absolute minimum, before starting on tax cuts, foreign policy and free stuff, is this:

    1) Align Government, Parliament and the EU in such a way as to deliver a Brexit sufficiently acceptable to the voting public

    2) Avoid at all costs a General Election before Brexit, as the Brexit party will ensure the Conservatives will lose and Labour will probably win, therefore

    3) Win any VONC

    4) Avoid a minor (eg 6 MPs defect) or major (eg 100 MPs form new party) split in the Tory party

    5) Neutralise the Brexit party in the longer term

    6) Be in a position to win a GE in 2022.

    This minimum is quite a big ask at the moment. I think we need a plan with a bit of detail from each of the candidates. Can anyone outline how even a single one of the 10 candidates would outline their proposal, because I can't.

    They can do some of those, for a time, but not all of them.
    It's a bit scary, but so far as I can see unless all 6 are delivered, then JC becomes PM in probably a coalition government.

    If he can keep things together just a bit longer, he becomes PM sooner or later. Peterborough has made that much more likely, as his position has been made mroe secure.
    algarkirk said:

    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)

    Shame, that would be funny.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    spire2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)

    what if bottom 2 have same number of votes? shoot out?
    I think under the old rules both would drop out in that scenario.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 817
    spire2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)

    what if bottom 2 have same number of votes? shoot out?
    Cage fight over 15 rounds. Tickets available online.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    I'm amazed he doesn't snap at them in response, given they have been giving him a hard time for ages, and yet he just keeps going on and on.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,160
    edited June 10
    ydoethur said:

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
    Can anyone explain his appeal to the opposite sex?

    image
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,798
    So when is the first elimination round?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,392
    There's other explanations for Boris's low profile than the gaffe-avoidance-scheme managed by handlers theory in the header - we're not looking at a T May/Nick Timothy set up here. It is equally likely that it's just a Keep your powder dry, Don't peak too soon approach.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,945
    kle4 said:

    spire2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)

    what if bottom 2 have same number of votes? shoot out?
    I think under the old rules both would drop out in that scenario.
    In 2001 there was a rerun instead
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 19,101

    Rory's focussed on getting to TV debates:

    Stewart strikes me as someone who might just be bright enough to be playing the long game.

    He knows that in all probability winning this time is probably a poison chalice but taking part and getting into the TV debates is a chance to get his name and ideas out there with a view to the following leadership campaign - which may not be that many years further ahead. All he has to do this time around is perform well, not make any stupid mistakes and definitely not make any promises that might come back to haunt him in the future.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    Isuppose at least with a members ballot we will have definitive proof of the size of the tory membership, which is probably well above estimates from a few years ago, if not impressive compared to Labour or the SNP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    Hold on kids. You may need a quick popcorn order. Do I detect that the whiff of enough trouble to cause a leadership challenge this summer???


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    Go on Lab, let's have a challenge.

    All three main parties in election mode and therefore as the EU implored, making good use of the extension time. :lol:
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 817
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
    Can anyone explain his appeal to the opposite sex?

    image
    Could it be his outstanding dress sense?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    Not sure how Jezza is going to get through Lab conference with his fence sitting.

    It is going to be a bloodbath. And even Len might not be able to massage and fudge this one away.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694
    MaxPB said:

    So when is the first elimination round?

    Thursday 13th according to the BBC
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
    Can anyone explain his appeal to the opposite sex?

    image
    Could it be his outstanding dress sense?

    £700K earnings last year just from the freelance stuff iirc.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    HYUFD said:

    Boris will be launching his campaign tomorrow so you can wait to see what he says then

    What he says and what he means or does are not the same
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,613
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
    Can anyone explain his appeal to the opposite sex?

    image
    The fashion sense of @TSE with added boobs ....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221
    spire2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)

    what if bottom 2 have same number of votes? shoot out?
    Ancram and Davis were tied bottom in the 1st round in 2001, Ancram was eliminated on the second ballot
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 817
    MaxPB said:

    So when is the first elimination round?

    Thursday
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,391

    Not sure how Jezza is going to get through Lab conference with his fence sitting.

    It is going to be a bloodbath. And even Len might not be able to massage and fudge this one away.

    Doubt it. It will just be like last year. Any sort of debate or proposed vote on the policy that's not been approved by Corbyn's office will just be shut down.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,455
    HYUFD said:

    spire2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)

    what if bottom 2 have same number of votes? shoot out?
    Ancram and Davis were tied bottom in the 1st round in 2001, Ancram was eliminated on the second ballot
    They both refused to pull out, which forced a rerun in which they both went backwards and Davis pulled out anyway, so it was a waste of time.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,963
    Ishmael_Z said:

    There's other explanations for Boris's low profile than the gaffe-avoidance-scheme managed by handlers theory in the header - we're not looking at a T May/Nick Timothy set up here. It is equally likely that it's just a Keep your powder dry, Don't peak too soon approach.

    The weakness of his position is with the MPs rather than the members. From what I've heard he has been having lots of one-to-one meetings with Conservative MPs to improve his position. Maybe he's just too busy to make public policy speeches at this stage.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,664
    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,798

    MaxPB said:

    So when is the first elimination round?

    Thursday 13th according to the BBC
    Cheers, we get the first indication of how well each candidate is supported as well then I guess.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405

    Rory's focussed on getting to TV debates:

    Stewart strikes me as someone who might just be bright enough to be playing the long game.

    He knows that in all probability winning this time is probably a poison chalice but taking part and getting into the TV debates is a chance to get his name and ideas out there with a view to the following leadership campaign - which may not be that many years further ahead. All he has to do this time around is perform well, not make any stupid mistakes and definitely not make any promises that might come back to haunt him in the future.
    Totally agree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221

    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
    Can anyone explain his appeal to the opposite sex?

    image
    Could it be his outstanding dress sense?

    £700K earnings last year just from the freelance stuff iirc.

    Plus he was not bad looking in his younger days


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/methode/times/prodmigration/web/bin/fffcfd02-4fd7-3d8a-8e22-59dc4b8c28ba.jpg?crop=1500,1000,0,0&resize=685
  • eekeek Posts: 5,463
    edited June 10

    Rory's focussed on getting to TV debates:

    Stewart strikes me as someone who might just be bright enough to be playing the long game.

    He knows that in all probability winning this time is probably a poison chalice but taking part and getting into the TV debates is a chance to get his name and ideas out there with a view to the following leadership campaign - which may not be that many years further ahead. All he has to do this time around is perform well, not make any stupid mistakes and definitely not make any promises that might come back to haunt him in the future.
    As I posted as this thread was created - anyone sensible wants to raise their profile in this election ready for the next one.

    Realistically I don't think you want to win this one or the next one. The winner of this election has to keep both the DUP and all current Tory MPs on side to win the immediate VONC that is coming and there is little chance of most candidates pulling that trick off except possibly Gove / Hunt (so it's highly possible the winner may actually never become PM).

    You then need to delivery Brexit and no candidate has a chance of deliverying Brexit without an election (to change the Parliamentary arithmetic) yet they won't win an election without / before delivering Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So when is the first elimination round?

    Thursday 13th according to the BBC
    Cheers, we get the first indication of how well each candidate is supported as well then I guess.
    I would think so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Me neither. I can think of at least 3 more worthy of this sobriquet. And several more with less personality.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    edited June 10
    The Unicorn Grand National.

    Surely the title of a thread header?



  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,160
    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Is it a sort of pun on her name - Leadsom?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    edited June 10
    Tory candidates have teaser trailers ahead of the full theatrical trailers now?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694

    Rory's focussed on getting to TV debates:

    Stewart strikes me as someone who might just be bright enough to be playing the long game.

    He knows that in all probability winning this time is probably a poison chalice but taking part and getting into the TV debates is a chance to get his name and ideas out there with a view to the following leadership campaign - which may not be that many years further ahead. All he has to do this time around is perform well, not make any stupid mistakes and definitely not make any promises that might come back to haunt him in the future.
    Totally agree.
    In many ways Stewart is the most likely of the bunch to be the next Tory leader to win an election. Not this side of 2022, but eventually.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 46,917
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Is it a sort of pun on her name - Leadsom?
    I meant besides that reason. I assume there has to be more of a reason than just the pseudo-pun.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,348
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So when is the first elimination round?

    Thursday 13th according to the BBC
    Cheers, we get the first indication of how well each candidate is supported as well then I guess.
    The Dame from the 1922 Committee (literally a Dame, that is) said the results will be released around 1pm.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,547
    spire2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question on last thread was is it possible that all the candidates get enough votes on the first ballot and therefore no-one drops out.
    Answer: No. Bottom one drops out even if above the threshold. (Otherwise we might be here for eternity, like with already are with Brexit)

    what if bottom 2 have same number of votes? shoot out?
    As they are replacing Theresa May, it seems only fitting to make it a dance-off.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Is it a sort of pun on her name - Leadsom?
    I meant besides that reason. I assume there has to be more of a reason than just the pseudo-pun.
    Give her her due, she was very prescient about Brexit back in 2013, stating that: "it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty".

    Shame she didn't pay attention to herself.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,963
    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.

    Isn't it just a re-run of the referendum bus?

    The details don't matter. The more his opponents attack him on the details the more it is established that Boris is a low-tax politician who is most likely to deliver tax cuts to Conservative Party members and core voters.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Leadsom. "I tried cannabis. Since then I have become aware of the terrible effects it can have on ones mental health."
    Errrr. Not the best phrasing, Andrea.
    Nevertheless, watching her on C4 news, she seems sane, realistic and measured. Certainly in comparison with some others.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    😂😂😂
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,664

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Is it a sort of pun on her name - Leadsom?
    I meant besides that reason. I assume there has to be more of a reason than just the pseudo-pun.
    Give her her due, she was very prescient about Brexit back in 2013, stating that: "it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty".

    Shame she didn't pay attention to herself.
    Gosh, changing her mind, what a truly foul individual.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,392

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Is it a sort of pun on her name - Leadsom?
    I meant besides that reason. I assume there has to be more of a reason than just the pseudo-pun.
    Give her her due, she was very prescient about Brexit back in 2013, stating that: "it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty".

    Shame she didn't pay attention to herself.
    Only a decade? Phew.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,455

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Is it a sort of pun on her name - Leadsom?
    I meant besides that reason. I assume there has to be more of a reason than just the pseudo-pun.
    Give her her due, she was very prescient about Brexit back in 2013, stating that: "it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty".

    Shame she didn't pay attention to herself.
    Gosh, changing her mind, what a truly foul individual.
    Why is someone who allegedly changed their mind before 2016 sound on Europe, but someone who changed their mind after 2016 is a traitorous Remoaner?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,664
    _Anazina_ said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    😂😂😂
    Case in point...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    edited June 10

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.

    Isn't it just a re-run of the referendum bus?

    The details don't matter. The more his opponents attack him on the details the more it is established that Boris is a low-tax politician who is most likely to deliver tax cuts to Conservative Party members and core voters.
    The trouble is money for the NHS was something all could benefit from. If the core vote is only top rate tax payers in England and Wales, then they are in difficulty.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Is it a sort of pun on her name - Leadsom?
    I meant besides that reason. I assume there has to be more of a reason than just the pseudo-pun.
    Give her her due, she was very prescient about Brexit back in 2013, stating that: "it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty".

    Shame she didn't pay attention to herself.
    Gosh, changing her mind, what a truly foul individual.
    I await your reaction when PM BoJo changes his mind and revokes A50 :smile:
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 768
    MaxPB said:

    So when is the first elimination round?

    Thank goodness it's not a full 38 game league season.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    dixiedean said:

    Leadsom. "I tried cannabis. Since then I have become aware of the terrible effects it can have on ones mental health."
    Errrr. Not the best phrasing, Andrea.
    Nevertheless, watching her on C4 news, she seems sane, realistic and measured. Certainly in comparison with some others.

    The cannabis issue is interesting. Modern cannabis tends to be skunky and some of that is off the scale compared to the old hippie spliff.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694
    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.


    How many Tory members will even benefit from Boris's tax cut plan? I suspect a lot are comfortably off, but how namy over 65s are on pensions of >£50k?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221
    eek said:

    Rory's focussed on getting to TV debates:

    Stewart strikes me as someone who might just be bright enough to be playing the long game.

    He knows that in all probability winning this time is probably a poison chalice but taking part and getting into the TV debates is a chance to get his name and ideas out there with a view to the following leadership campaign - which may not be that many years further ahead. All he has to do this time around is perform well, not make any stupid mistakes and definitely not make any promises that might come back to haunt him in the future.
    As I posted as this thread was created - anyone sensible wants to raise their profile in this election ready for the next one.

    Realistically I don't think you want to win this one or the next one. The winner of this election has to keep both the DUP and all current Tory MPs on side to win the immediate VONC that is coming and there is little chance of most candidates pulling that trick off except possibly Gove / Hunt (so it's highly possible the winner may actually never become PM).

    You then need to delivery Brexit and no candidate has a chance of deliverying Brexit without an election (to change the Parliamentary arithmetic) yet they won't win an election without / before delivering Brexit.
    If Parliament refuses to vote for the Withdrawal Amendment even after a renegotiation then you call a general election to get a mandate for it or No Deal.

    YouGov had Boris winning a majority even now as he halved the Brexit Party voteshare to 13% as enough of their voters trusted him to deliver Brexit
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,484
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
    Can anyone explain his appeal to the opposite sex?

    image
    SeanT with moobs ?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.

    Isn't it just a re-run of the referendum bus?

    The details don't matter. The more his opponents attack him on the details the more it is established that Boris is a low-tax politician who is most likely to deliver tax cuts to Conservative Party members and core voters.
    The trouble is money for the NHS was something all could benefit from. If the core vote is only top rate tax payers in England and Wales, then they are in difficulty.
    Boris has also promised more money for the NHS too, indeed in Cabinet Boris demanded an extra £100 million a week for the NHS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/23/may-slaps-down-boris-johnson-over-nhs-funding-demands
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    edited June 10
    Thread. Useful checklist of Tory leadership hopeful's proposals for the Irish border. Only one that bears a moment's consideration is from Rory Stewart, which is to pass May's Deal on the fourth time of asking. Matt Hancock gets half a point for vagueness to the point of vacuity. Who is Harper? I've never heard of him.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,031
    Of the list above it's got to be Leadsom. The perfect mix of Nurse Ratchet and Margaret Thatcher. Firm but with a hint of menace. A dominatrix with a smile.

    The rest are just versions of Michael Fallon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.


    How many Tory members will even benefit from Boris's tax cut plan? I suspect a lot are comfortably off, but how namy over 65s are on pensions of >£50k?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221
    Scott_P said:
    Nothing to stop the SNP matching his plans as income tax is devolved to Holyrood
  • eekeek Posts: 5,463

    dixiedean said:

    Leadsom. "I tried cannabis. Since then I have become aware of the terrible effects it can have on ones mental health."
    Errrr. Not the best phrasing, Andrea.
    Nevertheless, watching her on C4 news, she seems sane, realistic and measured. Certainly in comparison with some others.

    The cannabis issue is interesting. Modern cannabis tends to be skunky and some of that is off the scale compared to the old hippie spliff.
    The only reason for legalising cannabis is due to the insane strength of what's produced nowadays.

    Cocaine and even heroin is safer by comparison...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    Roger said:

    Of the list above it's got to be Leadsom. The perfect mix of Nurse Ratchet and Margaret Thatcher. Firm but with a hint of menace. A dominatrix with a smile.

    The rest are just versions of Michael Fallon.

    Nurse Ratchet? Brilliant. :lol:
  • eekeek Posts: 5,463
    Quincel said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So when is the first elimination round?

    Thursday 13th according to the BBC
    Cheers, we get the first indication of how well each candidate is supported as well then I guess.
    The Dame from the 1922 Committee (literally a Dame, that is) said the results will be released around 1pm.
    that Dame really should have retired in 2015....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.

    Isn't it just a re-run of the referendum bus?

    The details don't matter. The more his opponents attack him on the details the more it is established that Boris is a low-tax politician who is most likely to deliver tax cuts to Conservative Party members and core voters.
    The trouble is money for the NHS was something all could benefit from. If the core vote is only top rate tax payers in England and Wales, then they are in difficulty.
    Approximately 4.7m higher rate tax payers in the UK apparently. What proportion of them are non-Tory voters who will be swayed to vote Tory by a tax cut?

    Not many.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,694
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Rory's focussed on getting to TV debates:

    Stewart strikes me as someone who might just be bright enough to be playing the long game.

    He knows that in all probability winning this time is probably a poison chalice but taking part and getting into the TV debates is a chance to get his name and ideas out there with a view to the following leadership campaign - which may not be that many years further ahead. All he has to do this time around is perform well, not make any stupid mistakes and definitely not make any promises that might come back to haunt him in the future.
    As I posted as this thread was created - anyone sensible wants to raise their profile in this election ready for the next one.

    Realistically I don't think you want to win this one or the next one. The winner of this election has to keep both the DUP and all current Tory MPs on side to win the immediate VONC that is coming and there is little chance of most candidates pulling that trick off except possibly Gove / Hunt (so it's highly possible the winner may actually never become PM).

    You then need to delivery Brexit and no candidate has a chance of deliverying Brexit without an election (to change the Parliamentary arithmetic) yet they won't win an election without / before delivering Brexit.
    If Parliament refuses to vote for the Withdrawal Amendment even after a renegotiation then you call a general election to get a mandate for it or No Deal.

    YouGov had Boris winning a majority even now as he halved the Brexit Party voteshare to 13% as enough of their voters trusted him to deliver Brexit
    What renegotiation? The EU are not going to renegotiate - why would they?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.


    How many Tory members will even benefit from Boris's tax cut plan? I suspect a lot are comfortably off, but how namy over 65s are on pensions of >£50k?
    The point is rather that it would be paid for by an increase in NI. Which pensioners don't pay. Therefore, it would be a transfer of wealth from the lower paid in employment to the wealthier, in assets, at least, if not income.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,049
    FF43 said:

    Thread. Useful checklist of Tory leadership hopeful's proposals for the Irish border. Only one that bears a moment's consideration is from Rory Stewart, which is to pass May's Deal on the fourth time of asking. Matt Hancock gets half a point for vagueness to the point of vacuity. Who is Harper? I've never heard of him.

    Mark Harper, MP for the Forest of Dean and Cameron's last Chief Whip.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    😂😂😂
    Case in point...

    _Anazina_ said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    😂😂😂
    Case in point...
    🤣🤣🤣
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.

    Isn't it just a re-run of the referendum bus?

    The details don't matter. The more his opponents attack him on the details the more it is established that Boris is a low-tax politician who is most likely to deliver tax cuts to Conservative Party members and core voters.
    The trouble is money for the NHS was something all could benefit from. If the core vote is only top rate tax payers in England and Wales, then they are in difficulty.
    Boris has also promised more money for the NHS too, indeed in Cabinet Boris demanded an extra £100 million a week for the NHS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/23/may-slaps-down-boris-johnson-over-nhs-funding-demands
    So. He's promising big tax cuts and increased spending is he?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405
    Bloody hell. Just realised my 2nd biggest winner is McVey.

    I might not sleep if that one comes off.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,374
    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Because her name sounds like loathsome. Look on the bright side. She could be called Hunt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221
    edited June 10
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.


    How many Tory members will even benefit from Boris's tax cut plan? I suspect a lot are comfortably off, but how namy over 65s are on pensions of >£50k?
    The point is rather that it would be paid for by an increase in NI. Which pensioners don't pay. Therefore, it would be a transfer of wealth from the lower paid in employment to the wealthier, in assets, at least, if not income.
    Boris is only proposing an increase in the upper rate of NI which only applies to those earning over £962 a week ie £50 024, so anyone earning under £50k will not be affected either way by Boris' tax plans, it is mainly a shift from income tax to higher NI (but with wealthy pensioners net beneficiaries and the voters most likely to go to the polls and vote Tory but many currently voting Brexit Party).


    It is a welcome move as higher NI should be the first target to raise more funds for the NHS and social care
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,049
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.

    Isn't it just a re-run of the referendum bus?

    The details don't matter. The more his opponents attack him on the details the more it is established that Boris is a low-tax politician who is most likely to deliver tax cuts to Conservative Party members and core voters.
    The trouble is money for the NHS was something all could benefit from. If the core vote is only top rate tax payers in England and Wales, then they are in difficulty.
    Boris has also promised more money for the NHS too, indeed in Cabinet Boris demanded an extra £100 million a week for the NHS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/23/may-slaps-down-boris-johnson-over-nhs-funding-demands
    So. He's promising big tax cuts and increased spending is he?
    He's a Harrods version of Jeremy Corbyn.

    Admittedly a somewhat more intelligent and articulate one.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,463

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.

    Isn't it just a re-run of the referendum bus?

    The details don't matter. The more his opponents attack him on the details the more it is established that Boris is a low-tax politician who is most likely to deliver tax cuts to Conservative Party members and core voters.
    The trouble is money for the NHS was something all could benefit from. If the core vote is only top rate tax payers in England and Wales, then they are in difficulty.
    Approximately 4.7m higher rate tax payers in the UK apparently. What proportion of them are non-Tory voters who will be swayed to vote Tory by a tax cut?

    Not many.
    I don't think it's a question of getting non-Tory voters to vote Tory this plan is to try to stop those that do vote Tory switching to another party (possibly Brexit, possibly the Lib Dems). To be blunt it won't work...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,636

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.

    Isn't it just a re-run of the referendum bus?

    The details don't matter. The more his opponents attack him on the details the more it is established that Boris is a low-tax politician who is most likely to deliver tax cuts to Conservative Party members and core voters.
    The trouble is money for the NHS was something all could benefit from. If the core vote is only top rate tax payers in England and Wales, then they are in difficulty.
    Approximately 4.7m higher rate tax payers in the UK apparently. What proportion of them are non-Tory voters who will be swayed to vote Tory by a tax cut?

    Not many.
    But a large number might be put off from voting Corbyn in 2022, after they've gotten used to the extra few hundred in their pay packet each month.

    It's actually quite a clever trap, the promise of a tax cut might not sway many voters, but forcing your opponent to come out in favour of taking that money away once it's been given is very different.
  • kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    Just because people dislike soemone does not mean they are scared of them.

    That said, I don't recall why people think she is especially loathsome.
    Is it a sort of pun on her name - Leadsom?
    I meant besides that reason. I assume there has to be more of a reason than just the pseudo-pun.
    She's both a Tory and a Brexiteer and either is seemingly good enough reason for most on the left.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,463
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nothing to stop the SNP matching his plans as income tax is devolved to Holyrood
    but NI isn't and that's a problem when Boris ratches up the NI side of things and reduces the income tax bit the SNP has control over...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Rory's focussed on getting to TV debates:

    Stewart strikes me as someone who might just be bright enough to be playing the long game.

    He knows that in all probability winning this time is probably a poison chalice but taking part and getting into the TV debates is a chance to get his name and ideas out there with a view to the following leadership campaign - which may not be that many years further ahead. All he has to do this time around is perform well, not make any stupid mistakes and definitely not make any promises that might come back to haunt him in the future.
    As I posted as this thread was created - anyone sensible wants to raise their profile in this election ready for the next one.

    Realistically I don't think you want to win this one or the next one. The winner of this election has to keep both the DUP and all current Tory MPs on side to win the immediate VONC that is coming and there is little chance of most candidates pulling that trick off except possibly Gove / Hunt (so it's highly possible the winner may actually never become PM).

    You then need to delivery Brexit and no candidate has a chance of deliverying Brexit without an election (to change the Parliamentary arithmetic) yet they won't win an election without / before delivering Brexit.
    If Parliament refuses to vote for the Withdrawal Amendment even after a renegotiation then you call a general election to get a mandate for it or No Deal.

    YouGov had Boris winning a majority even now as he halved the Brexit Party voteshare to 13% as enough of their voters trusted him to deliver Brexit
    What renegotiation? The EU are not going to renegotiate - why would they?
    The UK is the EU's biggest export destination, who knows what compromise may be agreed on the backstop
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,405


    At nine years old I was still obsessed with the next moon landing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,715
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course Boris' main weakness may well turn out to be his tax plan. A massive transfer of funds to already wealthy pensioners is not really what the country is crying out for. Even if Tory members might like a bung.
    Not much sense of how it will be paid for.


    How many Tory members will even benefit from Boris's tax cut plan? I suspect a lot are comfortably off, but how namy over 65s are on pensions of >£50k?
    The point is rather that it would be paid for by an increase in NI. Which pensioners don't pay. Therefore, it would be a transfer of wealth from the lower paid in employment to the wealthier, in assets, at least, if not income.
    Boris is only proposing an increase in the upper rate of NI which only applies to those earning over £962 a week ie £50 024, so anyone earning under £50k will not be affected either way by Boris' tax plans, it is mainly a shift from income tax to higher NI (but with wealthy pensioners net beneficiaries and the voters most likely to go to the polls and vote Tory but many currently voting Brexit Party).


    It is a welcome move as higher NI should be the first target to raise more funds for the NHS and social care
    The submarine strategy for policy announcements and campaigning having worked so well for the Conservatives before?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,883

    The comments in this thread about Leadsom are ridiculous. She's not remotely loathsome or witchy - she doesn't have a Thatcheresque demeanour, not that it would be reprehensible of she did. I can only conclude that she's the one people are scared will actually succeed in securing Brexit and a thriving UK.

    I don't agree with your last sentence, but I do agree that the PB collective opinion of Andrea Leadsome are a bit mismatched. Although if anybody would like to argue the case, happy to hear counter-argument
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,151
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
    Can anyone explain his appeal to the opposite sex?

    image
    Attraction isn't about looks.

    Biggest enduring myth there is.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,031
    edited June 10
    Discovering three years after it mattered that he is the worst leader Labour has ever had. It wouldn't surprise me if he encouraged the anti semitism stories himself to divert attention from his uselessness as party leader
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,221

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris aide has said we will see more of him in next week or so.

    We will see.

    I hope not. His hands and face are quite revolting enough without seeing any more of him.
    Can anyone explain his appeal to the opposite sex?

    image
    Attraction isn't about looks.

    Biggest enduring myth there is.
    Short term it is but longer term it is about personality
This discussion has been closed.