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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls

Above is a chart based on the final polls in the 2012 London Mayoral race when John just squeezed to victory with a margin of three points. As can be seen none of the pollsters had the gap so close.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    Nul.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 78,330
    Fascinating
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    Don’t confuse high name recognition with popularity

    A motto for the Democratic race, too.
    (Though Biden is, actually, quite popular.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    Perhaps it should be 'don't confuse high name recognition with voting intention' ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,319
    Third like Labour
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Has anyone in PB [ with so many experts ] worked out the following:

    1. New Prime MInister
    2. EU does not budge.
    3. Government decides No-Deal on 31st Oct or earlier
    4. Parliament stops the government from doing so. How ?
    5. Government refuses to apply for an extension to Art.50 or EU refuses. What next then. VONC ?
    6. What if HMG survives ?
    7. Are we back at No-Deal ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    Thread headers seem to have consistently underestimated Boris Johnson's apparent appeal and chances in this leadership contest.
    I do hope that isn't because many of the Tories and others below the line here simply don't like him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,132
    edited June 11
    Yet another anti Boris thread totally ignoring the fact Boris is the only Tory ever to win the London Mayoralty in the first place (and indeed in 2008 the polls actually underestimated him) and also ignoring the fact the only reason Leave won the 2016 EU referendum was Boris was fronting it, had Farage been the frontman Leave would likely have lost.

    The 2012 polling was wrong on 2nd preferences anyway a totally different proposition to a FPTP election like the next general election
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,319
    I don’t think anyone except HY believes that hypothetical “how would you vote if X were leader” polls are worth a bean.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 21,072
    Oh. I thought this was a guest thread by @HYUFD.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,194
    Scott_P said:
    Boris should be good if Grieve is so steadfastly against him! :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,132
    Nigelb said:

    Perhaps it should be 'don't confuse high name recognition with voting intention' ?

    Cameron polled better in 2005 on hypotheticals than Davis with no greater name recognition.

    Hunt or Gove are well recognised as is Javid now as Senior Cabinet Ministers yet all poll worse than Boris v Labour mainly as all see the Brexit Party poll over 20% while Boris cuts the Brexit Party down to 13% so zilch to do with name recognition
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I doubt proroguing is that big a deal unless the govt use the time to pass any bills or business.

    MPs will be drinking g and t s in the bar and twiddling their thumbs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,880
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris should be good if Grieve is so steadfastly against him! :D
    If Grieve and his fellow travellers opposed to No Deal had voted for the deal then no deal would already be off the table.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 622

    Has anyone in PB [ with so many experts ] worked out the following:

    1. New Prime MInister
    2. EU does not budge.
    3. Government decides No-Deal on 31st Oct or earlier
    4. Parliament stops the government from doing so. How ?
    5. Government refuses to apply for an extension to Art.50 or EU refuses. What next then. VONC ?
    6. What if HMG survives ?
    7. Are we back at No-Deal ?

    Yes, we are back at No Deal, if 1-6 occur as you suggest
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    The Javid video is interesting. Vastly superior in production values to his first little movie, Clever use of dogs, mums, old photos, the word "Bromsgrove".

    Yet he is still stilted, and oddly inarticulate. He repeats words in a weird fashion. He does that strange politicians' hand movement: a lightly clenched fist, with thumb protruding, waggling up and down. They must have been told it looks effective (like the legs apart power-stance). Fail.

    And yet.... the video has been watched 200,000 times. Maybe he has a chance.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,129
    Update on Labour reselections for London Assembly

    Note: they are using the updated version of trigger ballot. Sitting AMs are triggered (aka full open selection contest) if either 1/3 of the party branches or 1/3 of the affiliates branches vote to trigger the ballot.
    Previously, just like MPs, party branches (in this case CLPs; in MPs case wards) and affiliates branches were considered together. And to be triggered it was required to lose the vote in 50% of them. Given affiliates (mainly unions) often vote for reselection of everyone, it was difficult to deselect sitting members, also because affiliates usually outnumber party branches.

    Back to London...
    3 constituency AMs are retiring: Andrew Dismore (Barnet and Camden), Navin Shah (Brent and Harrow) and Janette Arnold (North East)

    The "trigger ballot" situation for CLPs section (let's assume none of them will have troubles with affiliates) is as follows:

    City and East (Unmesh Desai): he won in Bethnall Green & Bow, Poplar & Limehouse, Dagenham & Rainham, Barking, Cities of London. West Ham and East still to come. So he is 5/7. Already above the 2/3 threshold required regardless of the outcome of Newham CLPs

    Ealing and Hillingdon (Onkar Sahota): he won Eailing Southall and Ruislip & North Pinner . Lost in Ealing Central. Ealing North, Hayes & Harlington and Uxbridge/South Ruislip etc still to vote. He needs to win all of them

    Enfield and Haringey (Joanne McCartney): she won in Tottenham, Edmonton and Enfield Southgate. Enfiled North and Horney/Wood Green still to come. Winning in 1 of them is enough.

    Greenwich and Lewisham (Len Duvall). CLPs part finished. He won in Lewisham East, Lewisham West, Greenwich/Woolwich, Eltham and Erith. He lost in Lewisham Deptford. So 5/6. Save.

    Lambeth and Southwark (Florence Eshalomi): she won in Vauxhall and lost in Streatham. Dulwich/West Norwood, Camberwell/Peckham and Bermondsey/Old Southwark still to come. She needs to win all of them.

    Merton and Wandsworth (Leonie Cooper): she won Putney and Mitcham & Morden. Wimbledon, Tooting and Battersea left. She can afford to lose one of them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002
    edited June 11
    "Above is a chart based on the final polls in the 2012 London Mayoral race when John just squeezed to victory with a margin of three points."

    Yes, first name recognition is well overestimated as a pointer to results.
    :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    Byronic said:

    The Javid video is interesting. Vastly superior in production values to his first little movie, Clever use of dogs, mums, old photos, the word "Bromsgrove".

    Yet he is still stilted, and oddly inarticulate. He repeats words in a weird fashion. He does that strange politicians' hand movement: a lightly clenched fist, with thumb protruding, waggling up and down. They must have been told it looks effective (like the legs apart power-stance). Fail.

    And yet.... the video has been watched 200,000 times. Maybe he has a chance.

    I think it's good. Has a chance of winning over Mcvey/Harper's troops over with the working class Tory story.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    Pulpstar said:

    Byronic said:

    The Javid video is interesting. Vastly superior in production values to his first little movie, Clever use of dogs, mums, old photos, the word "Bromsgrove".

    Yet he is still stilted, and oddly inarticulate. He repeats words in a weird fashion. He does that strange politicians' hand movement: a lightly clenched fist, with thumb protruding, waggling up and down. They must have been told it looks effective (like the legs apart power-stance). Fail.

    And yet.... the video has been watched 200,000 times. Maybe he has a chance.

    I think it's good. Has a chance of winning over Mcvey/Harper's troops over with the working class Tory story.
    Yes. It's such a shame he is so lacking in charisma. He is anti-charismatic. One of those people that makes you fall asleep as soon as he speaks. Worse than TMay, even though he is clearly smarter than her, and more flexible.

    I like his policies, in general. And a Muslim-heritage PM might heal some of the nation's divisions. And boy, do they need healing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,132
    IanB2 said:

    I don’t think anyone except HY believes that hypothetical “how would you vote if X were leader” polls are worth a bean.

    Ken Clarke led on hypothetical polls in 1997 and 2001 and the Tories ignored them and picked Hague and IDS/Howard and lost in 2001 and 2005. David Cameron led hypothetical polls in 2005 and the Tories followed them and won in 2010 and 2015.

    David Miliband led in hypothetical polls in 2010 and Andy Burnham led in hypothetical polls in 2015 and Labour ignored them and lost in 2015 and 2017.

    Occasionally you can win regardless e.g. Heath polled better than Thatcher pre 1979 but Thatcher won anyway because of the need for change but generally they are right
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    Scott_P said:
    Is it me or is Boris suddenly looking quite a lot older?

    They've clearly chosen that photo for its unflattering qualities. But I have seen lots of other photos, where he looks similarly haggard, tired, and podgy.

    Perhaps this will be to his advantage, as it makes him seem a bit less adolescent, and clownish.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042
    edited June 11
    Pulpstar said:

    Thread headers seem to have consistently underestimated Boris Johnson's apparent appeal and chances in this leadership contest.
    I do hope that isn't because many of the Tories and others below the line here simply don't like him.

    I backed Boris at 10/1 and laid him at 1/2.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,477
    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    Interesting that around a third of Tory members polled last month didn't "know enough about this person to say", when asked about Rory Stewart for leader:
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/oy4q6y1tfj/Results_190516_ConservativePartyMembers_formatted_2w.pdf

    A similar number for Hancock. I suspect those numbers would be very different today.

    And everyone asks why he bothered running.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it me or is Boris suddenly looking quite a lot older?

    They've clearly chosen that photo for its unflattering qualities. But I have seen lots of other photos, where he looks similarly haggard, tired, and podgy.

    Perhaps this will be to his advantage, as it makes him seem a bit less adolescent, and clownish.
    He is converging on Trump, appearance-wise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173

    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
    Lunge would be an excellent surname for an ERG member.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,014

    Has anyone in PB [ with so many experts ] worked out the following:

    1. New Prime MInister
    2. EU does not budge.
    3. Government decides No-Deal on 31st Oct or earlier
    4. Parliament stops the government from doing so. How ?
    5. Government refuses to apply for an extension to Art.50 or EU refuses. What next then. VONC ?
    6. What if HMG survives ?
    7. Are we back at No-Deal ?

    Yes, we are back at No Deal, if 1-6 occur as you suggest

    An unexplored area is the capacity of parliament, against the will of government, to pass an act, mandating the government to revoke Art 50 as a way of avoiding 'no deal'. Can the speaker facilitate this step, and if so how?

    It is also conceivable that a court would grant an injunction requiring revocation or application for extension on the (arguable) basis that in passing Art 50 parliament was not thereby agreeing to crashing out but only to an agreed deal.

    Plenty of lawyers will be having a think about all this.

    One other small point. 'No deal' requires someone to take responsibility for the 'No Deal' outcome - something which no-one so far has reached the point of being willing to do. In political terms the end of October is a long time off, and promises now about it mean nothing. Under Art 50 the EU can offer an extension without the UK even asking for one; and under Art 50 the UK can of course both ask for an extension and (as now interpreted) Revoke. Come 31 October will something have changed and will both sides be willing to allow crashing out? I doubt it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,319

    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
    She had the biggest upside surprise in the last leadership ballot, though. Leadsom supporters are shy.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it me or is Boris suddenly looking quite a lot older?

    They've clearly chosen that photo for its unflattering qualities. But I have seen lots of other photos, where he looks similarly haggard, tired, and podgy.

    Perhaps this will be to his advantage, as it makes him seem a bit less adolescent, and clownish.
    He is converging on Trump, appearance-wise.
    Yes, he is. i wonder what it will do to public perceptions, as people notice.

    By the by, Trump was quite handsome in his youth. Easy to forget that.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/5nvore/young_donald_trump_and_barry_pepper_the/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Match abandoned in Bristol between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48593972
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002
    Byronic said:

    Is it me or is Boris suddenly looking quite a lot older?

    They've clearly chosen that photo for its unflattering qualities. But I have seen lots of other photos, where he looks similarly haggard, tired, and podgy.

    Perhaps this will be to his advantage, as it makes him seem a bit less adolescent, and clownish.

    Exactly what struck me when I saw him on TV the other day. He has 'gone over' and has done so at the rather tender age of 54. OK, will be 55 in a week, but that is still well short of the usual age at which this happens, which is 58.

    A benefit to him politically? Possibly, since as you say he appears (physically at least) less immature and clowny.

    But on balance I think not - because the wear & tear on that face looks to me like the result not of 'long nights wrestling with the soul', but of long nights.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it me or is Boris suddenly looking quite a lot older?

    They've clearly chosen that photo for its unflattering qualities. But I have seen lots of other photos, where he looks similarly haggard, tired, and podgy.

    Perhaps this will be to his advantage, as it makes him seem a bit less adolescent, and clownish.
    He increasingly resembles a Beerbohm caricature of Wilde.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,379
    Nigelb said:

    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
    Lunge would be an excellent surname for an ERG member.
    Boadicea Lunge MP. Nice.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042
    AndyJS said:

    Match abandoned in Bristol between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48593972

    Another decent result for England.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,590
    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 11

    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
    I've been trying to find out who the other 4 mystery supporters are that she must have had for the nomination paper, without success.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,967
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
    She had the biggest upside surprise in the last leadership ballot, though. Leadsom supporters are shy.
    I hope not. It’s squeaky bum time for a number of us on here at the moment, and I’d prefer not to be bedwetting for the next few weeks.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,938
    Johnny Mercer is recorded as a Boris supporter, but why does he have a vote at all given that he has resigned the Tory Whip?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,967
    Pulpstar said:

    Byronic said:

    The Javid video is interesting. Vastly superior in production values to his first little movie, Clever use of dogs, mums, old photos, the word "Bromsgrove".

    Yet he is still stilted, and oddly inarticulate. He repeats words in a weird fashion. He does that strange politicians' hand movement: a lightly clenched fist, with thumb protruding, waggling up and down. They must have been told it looks effective (like the legs apart power-stance). Fail.

    And yet.... the video has been watched 200,000 times. Maybe he has a chance.

    I think it's good. Has a chance of winning over Mcvey/Harper's troops over with the working class Tory story.
    The puppy/dog is a master stroke.

    This is Britain.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,477
    edited June 11
    justin124 said:

    Johnny Mercer is recorded as a Boris supporter, but why does he have a vote at all given that he has resigned the Tory Whip?

    I don't think he has resigned the Tory whip. He just said he wouldn't support the government for the moment. Odd, I know, but these are odd times.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,364
    IanB2 said:

    I don’t think anyone except HY believes that hypothetical “how would you vote if X were leader” polls are worth a bean.

    They aren't if you are desperate to find a reason for dismissing them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
    Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
    She had the biggest upside surprise in the last leadership ballot, though. Leadsom supporters are shy.
    Crabb 22 -> 34 (+54.5%)
    Fox 7 -> 16 (+9) (+128.6%)
    Gove 27 -> 48 (+19) (+70.4%)
    Leadsom 42 -> 66 (+24) (+57%)
    May 141 -> 165 (+24) (+17%)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,590
    Byronic said:

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
    Means I have to do things instead of sitting in front of the bx!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    Scott_P said:
    Crikey, the hair is Totally Trump, there.

    On balance I've decided I agree with kinabalu. The Ageing Of Boris is bad for Boris.

    People want to vote for him (if they want to vote for him) because he seems charismatic, fun, ambitious, energetic - a gamble, but at least an amusing gamble. None of that applies if, when you look at him, you are reminded of death, and the ageing process. Plus you also get the sense he's a major boozer.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,633
    HYUFD said:

    totally ignoring the fact Boris is the only Tory ever to win the London Mayoralty in the first place.

    There have been 5 London Mayoral elections, and only 3 without Mr Johnson. The claim that he is the only tory to ever win is as thin a a Rizla paper.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Crikey, the hair is Totally Trump, there.

    On balance I've decided I agree with kinabalu. The Ageing Of Boris is bad for Boris.

    People want to vote for him (if they want to vote for him) because he seems charismatic, fun, ambitious, energetic - a gamble, but at least an amusing gamble. None of that applies if, when you look at him, you are reminded of death, and the ageing process. Plus you also get the sense he's a major boozer.
    Because when one looks at Corbyn, all one feel is youth and vigour, right?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
    Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.
    Yes the phenomenon is backed up by the stats. It's called the "June monsoon".

    https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/article.asp?ID=9672&Article=Behold...+the+June+Monsoon#
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Isn’t Lynton Crosby presenting private polling to MPs at 4pm today to encourage them that Boris is the man to vote for
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    All this "Boris hiding" malarkey will be forgotten when he delivers his grand entrance to the race tommorow. The story will move on to whatever minor gaffe he commits.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
    She had the biggest upside surprise in the last leadership ballot, though. Leadsom supporters are shy.
    Crabb 22 -> 34 (+54.5%)
    Fox 7 -> 16 (+9) (+128.6%)
    Gove 27 -> 48 (+19) (+70.4%)
    Leadsom 42 -> 66 (+24) (+57%)
    May 141 -> 165 (+24) (+17%)
    She is still a Mother !
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,115
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

    Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
    She had the biggest upside surprise in the last leadership ballot, though. Leadsom supporters are shy.
    Crabb 22 -> 34 (+54.5%)
    Fox 7 -> 16 (+9) (+128.6%)
    Gove 27 -> 48 (+19) (+70.4%)
    Leadsom 42 -> 66 (+24) (+57%)
    May 141 -> 165 (+24) (+17%)
    Don't fight the last war! Recognition and patterns are different every time
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,364
    It is worth remembering that Johnson won the London mayorality in 2012 by 4% on the first round at the same time as the Conservatives ended up 9% behind Labour in the Assembly elections and as the Conservatives were being absolutely trashed in local elections up and down the rest of England, more so that at any other point of Cameron's premiership.

    Some achievement that.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    blueblue said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Crikey, the hair is Totally Trump, there.

    On balance I've decided I agree with kinabalu. The Ageing Of Boris is bad for Boris.

    People want to vote for him (if they want to vote for him) because he seems charismatic, fun, ambitious, energetic - a gamble, but at least an amusing gamble. None of that applies if, when you look at him, you are reminded of death, and the ageing process. Plus you also get the sense he's a major boozer.
    Because when one looks at Corbyn, all one feel is youth and vigour, right?
    Get your point. But Corbyn only came to public consciousness when he was already quite old. Indeed his age is, arguably, his selling point, with his allotment and his string vests. He is the Magic Grandpa, after all.

    Boris is meant to be youthful and amusing. He is not amusing when he reminds you of the grave.

    All comedians face this problem: it is much harder to be funny as you age. That's why so many successful comedians move on to other trades - writing, serious acting, etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,880

    justin124 said:

    Johnny Mercer is recorded as a Boris supporter, but why does he have a vote at all given that he has resigned the Tory Whip?

    I don't think he has resigned the Tory whip. He just said he wouldn't support the government for the moment. Odd, I know, but these are odd times.
    I suppose May had the option of withdrawing the whip when he said that but didn't. Since he has the whip he can vote for a candidate he can support.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
    Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.
    Yes the phenomenon is backed up by the stats. It's called the "June monsoon".

    https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/article.asp?ID=9672&Article=Behold...+the+June+Monsoon#
    Thanks for the link. I'm guessing they would have scheduled the World Cup for July and August if it wasn't for the Ashes being held then.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,590
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
    Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.
    I remember it snowing one Derby Day back in the 70's. Can't recall what the subsequent summer was like, though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002
    blueblue said:

    Because when one looks at Corbyn, all one feels is youth and vigour, right?

    When I look at Jeremy the main thing that I feel is a frisson of excitement at the prospect (ever nearer) of a modest but significant and much needed reversal of the Thatcher Blair consensus.

    But of course I recognize that not everyone feels that.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
    Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.
    Yes the phenomenon is backed up by the stats. It's called the "June monsoon".

    https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/article.asp?ID=9672&Article=Behold...+the+June+Monsoon#
    Thanks for the link. I'm guessing they would have scheduled the World Cup for July and August if it wasn't for the Ashes being held then.
    Yup.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,880
    Boris is going to throw this away if the coward line sticks.

    Same stupid mistake May made.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,533
    Things seem to be hotting up for Mr Thicky. Let us hope Labour has the good sense to ditch him before long. Not holding my breath though!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,658
    AndyJS said:

    Match abandoned in Bristol between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48593972

    Bloody rain.

    Some of us are relying on winnings from the cricket in order to unwind our longstanding lay on Boris Bloody Johnson.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,938
    TGOHF said:
    I cannot abide Johnson but do not condemn him for avoiding the broadcasters . That should always be a matter for the candidates themselves. Heath, Maudling and Powell did not debate or give media interviews in the July 1965 contest - neither did Heath, Thatcher, Whitelaw et al do so in the February 1975 contest. I see no reason at all for these campaign launches either - at least not until the party members' stage is reached. I really do resent the sense of entitlement evident from the broadcasters' criticism.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299
    kjohnw said:

    Isn’t Lynton Crosby presenting private polling to MPs at 4pm today to encourage them that Boris is the man to vote for

    See the article at the top of this thread. I suspect Boris wins on Fun and name recognition. Reality may be very different though...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,154
    Boris has got the media all in a slavver. He'll announce tommorow to much fanfare !
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002
    edited June 11
    Byronic said:

    All comedians face this problem: it is much harder to be funny as you age. That's why so many successful comedians move on to other trades - writing, serious acting, etc.

    This falls fair and square into the 'sad but true' category. Affects everyone not just comedians. My dad used to make me laugh (for all the right reasons) but now, not so much. All gets a bit stale.

    Essential caveat, there are plenty of exceptions.

    But not my dad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,658
    Byronic said:

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
    The media rights guys will be absolutely sh1tting themselves if India v Pakistan on Sunday gets washed out. It would be the largest TV audience for any sporting event this year.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,880
    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:
    I cannot abide Johnson but do not condemn him for avoiding the broadcasters . That should always be a matter for the candidates themselves. Heath, Maudling and Powell did not debate or give media interviews in the July 1965 contest - neither did Heath, Thatcher, Whitelaw et al do so in the February 1975 contest. I see no reason at all for these campaign launches either - at least not until the party members' stage is reached. I really do resent the sense of entitlement evident from the broadcasters' criticism.
    The person who would be Prime Minister should face scrutiny.

    This isn't the 70s.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I think we have learnt , not only to treat Boris's polling with scepticism, but to treat ANY poll similarly.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299

    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

    The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?
    Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.
    I remember it snowing one Derby Day back in the 70's. Can't recall what the subsequent summer was like, though.
    1867 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-dramatic-derby-day-fdrq0b8fr
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,002
    Pulpstar said:

    Boris has got the media all in a slavver. He'll announce tommorow to much fanfare !

    Will he slowly descend an ornate staircase at the Dorchester?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,590

    It is worth remembering that Johnson won the London mayorality in 2012 by 4% on the first round at the same time as the Conservatives ended up 9% behind Labour in the Assembly elections and as the Conservatives were being absolutely trashed in local elections up and down the rest of England, more so that at any other point of Cameron's premiership.

    Some achievement that.

    He was up against Ken Livingstone thought. Who was at or even past his sell-by by then.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 21,072
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Match abandoned in Bristol between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48593972

    Bloody rain.

    Some of us are relying on winnings from the cricket in order to unwind our longstanding lay on Boris Bloody Johnson.
    What sort of a crap sport is it when matches, the World Cup indeed, are abandoned because of the effing weather?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,938

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:
    I cannot abide Johnson but do not condemn him for avoiding the broadcasters . That should always be a matter for the candidates themselves. Heath, Maudling and Powell did not debate or give media interviews in the July 1965 contest - neither did Heath, Thatcher, Whitelaw et al do so in the February 1975 contest. I see no reason at all for these campaign launches either - at least not until the party members' stage is reached. I really do resent the sense of entitlement evident from the broadcasters' criticism.
    The person who would be Prime Minister should face scrutiny.

    This isn't the 70s.
    Scrutiny by those who can vote for him - ie Tory MPs until the final stage.The case for scrutiny today is no stronger than in the 70s.
  • The debate in the Tory Party on TV licences really is absurd. Here's a party that is supposed to defend the interests of those who have saved and been frugal all of their lives, talking about stripping well-off pensioners of their TV licences: the same pensioners who will have to sell their homes to pay for their own care.

    All while the Tory government sends £9bn a year to corrupt African regimes.

    This is the kind of upside-down thinking Cameron and Osborne have given us.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,964
    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    All comedians face this problem: it is much harder to be funny as you age. That's why so many successful comedians move on to other trades - writing, serious acting, etc.

    This falls fair and square into the 'sad but true' category. Affects everyone not just comedians. My dad used to make me laugh (for all the right reasons) but now, not so much. All gets a bit stale.

    Essential caveat, there are plenty of exceptions.

    But not my dad.
    I think people can remain funny (in private) well into their 60s. It's much harder to remain funny in your 60s on stage, or on TV, because when non-related people look at you, they immediately think, maybe subconsciously, "Here's an old man" (or woman) - and that is quintessentially unfunny.

    But yes, there are exceptions: Billy Connolly?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    kinabalu said:

    blueblue said:

    Because when one looks at Corbyn, all one feels is youth and vigour, right?

    When I look at Jeremy the main thing that I feel is a frisson of excitement at the prospect (ever nearer) of a modest but significant and much needed reversal of the Thatcher Blair consensus.

    But of course I recognize that not everyone feels that.
    What you experience as a 'frisson' is the cold shudder that will make me not only vote for but campaign for the Blues in any general election in which Corbyn is the opponent.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,880
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:
    I cannot abide Johnson but do not condemn him for avoiding the broadcasters . That should always be a matter for the candidates themselves. Heath, Maudling and Powell did not debate or give media interviews in the July 1965 contest - neither did Heath, Thatcher, Whitelaw et al do so in the February 1975 contest. I see no reason at all for these campaign launches either - at least not until the party members' stage is reached. I really do resent the sense of entitlement evident from the broadcasters' criticism.
    The person who would be Prime Minister should face scrutiny.

    This isn't the 70s.
    Scrutiny by those who can vote for him - ie Tory MPs until the final stage.The case for scrutiny today is no stronger than in the 70s.
    Yes it is. We are in the age of the internet, 24/7 news and TV debates. Time has changed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,852
    Pulpstar said:

    All this "Boris hiding" malarkey will be forgotten when he delivers his grand entrance to the race tommorow. The story will move on to whatever minor gaffe he commits.

    It's just the media having a tantrum because all the other launches are such dull fayre.

    Guys, chill. Have a game of wiff-waff. Better still, spend the time until the launch tomorrow seeing if you can do this:

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 21,072
    edited June 11

    The debate in the Tory Party on TV licences really is absurd. Here's a party that is supposed to defend the interests of those who have saved and been frugal all of their lives, talking about stripping well-off pensioners of their TV licences: the same pensioners who will have to sell their homes to pay for their own care.

    All while the Tory government sends £9bn a year to corrupt African regimes.

    This is the kind of upside-down thinking Cameron and Osborne have given us.

    Mate you weren't at the Bruges Group meeting yesterday were you by any chance?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,658
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Match abandoned in Bristol between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48593972

    Bloody rain.

    Some of us are relying on winnings from the cricket in order to unwind our longstanding lay on Boris Bloody Johnson.
    What sort of a crap sport is it when matches, the World Cup indeed, are abandoned because of the effing weather?
    They should have allowed for it within the schedule, much as they do at Wimbledon.

    Elsewhere teams often play ODIs on consecutive days, and today’s players are genuine athletes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,664
    So by trying to avoid making a gaff, Bozo has made a major gaff.

    These scriptwriters are shit-hot!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,938

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:
    I cannot abide Johnson but do not condemn him for avoiding the broadcasters . That should always be a matter for the candidates themselves. Heath, Maudling and Powell did not debate or give media interviews in the July 1965 contest - neither did Heath, Thatcher, Whitelaw et al do so in the February 1975 contest. I see no reason at all for these campaign launches either - at least not until the party members' stage is reached. I really do resent the sense of entitlement evident from the broadcasters' criticism.
    The person who would be Prime Minister should face scrutiny.

    This isn't the 70s.
    Scrutiny by those who can vote for him - ie Tory MPs until the final stage.The case for scrutiny today is no stronger than in the 70s.
    Yes it is. We are in the age of the internet, 24/7 news and TV debates. Time has changed
    Says who? Candidates are free to accept or decline media interviews. We had the Today programme , The World Tonight ,PM , and various TV programmes such as 24 Hours, This Week & Panorama in the 60s and 70s but the leadership hopefuls did not feel obliged to appear. Why did we need so much less scrutiny of the candidates in those days?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 11
    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Byronic said:

    The Javid video is interesting. Vastly superior in production values to his first little movie, Clever use of dogs, mums, old photos, the word "Bromsgrove".

    Yet he is still stilted, and oddly inarticulate. He repeats words in a weird fashion. He does that strange politicians' hand movement: a lightly clenched fist, with thumb protruding, waggling up and down. They must have been told it looks effective (like the legs apart power-stance). Fail.

    And yet.... the video has been watched 200,000 times. Maybe he has a chance.

    I think it's good. Has a chance of winning over Mcvey/Harper's troops over with the working class Tory story.
    Yes. It's such a shame he is so lacking in charisma. He is anti-charismatic. One of those people that makes you fall asleep as soon as he speaks. Worse than TMay, even though he is clearly smarter than her, and more flexible.

    I like his policies, in general. And a Muslim-heritage PM might heal some of the nation's divisions. And boy, do they need healing.
    The Saj should sign up with Rada for some charisma training. Mrs T had voice coaching. With the demise of public meetings and conference debates, many politicians have never learned the skills of holding a crowd's attention. I expect we will see something similar in America when the debates begin and we find we have done our money on someone who speaks hesitantly in a dull monotone.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,658
    Pulpstar said:

    Boris has got the media all in a slavver. He'll announce tommorow to much fanfare !

    If he annoys the media too much, their questions tomorrow could be rather amusing given all the skeletons we know about (and probably a few more that they know about but we don’t).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    You get 9 games to qualify for the semis - they good teams will still be at the top.

    Part of the magic of cricket - the best of all sports.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042
    TGOHF said:

    You get 9 games to qualify for the semis - they good teams will still be at the top.

    Part of the magic of cricket - the best of all sports.

    I don't see why they could not have used reserve days.
This discussion has been closed.