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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,032
    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    Ireland is an EU member. Their interests are
    aligned.
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    That’s not a reason we should agree to it.
    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    But does include cross-border organisation.
    Cross-border yes. The backstop isn't cross-border, all power is on the Irish side of the border and the UK side is just a colony.
    So use UK power to push back. And if pushing back doesn't work, then you don't have any power... :(

    One of the bad things about this is how badly it is exposing lack of power. One of the reasons why I was so Remainery was because I wanted power, not control. But Leavers mistook control for power and we are now horribly finding out that control with no power is useless. Hence the unending whining about being bullied. People with power do not whine about being bullied. They do the bullying.
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077

    Brexit is a consequence of the EU being united against us rather than a cause.

    It's like listening to 9/11 truthers. Jesus Christ.
    I see you're unable to respond to what I wrote.

    So instead you make an imbecilic comment.
    What else is there to say? To state that the EU was united against us and was somehow 'holding us down' is just simply wrong. It's not an opinion, it's just incorrect.
    This is what you said at 8.17:

    " Now thanks to the moronic Brexiteers the whole of Europe is united. Against us. "

    So it was YOU who said that the EU was united against us - I merely responded to your comment

    This is what I said at 8.31:

    " Brexit is a consequence of the EU being united against us rather than a cause.

    The ever more desperate 'Germany will need an ally against France and 'France will need an ally against Germany' fantasies from our politicians and Sir Humphreys from 1990 onwards.

    Not to mention the 'if we broaden Europe we will stop a deeper Europe' and 'if make a concession now we gain goodwill for the future' wishful thinking. "

    I did not state that Europe was 'holding us down' so please don't claim I did.

    Now what my comment was referencing was the failure of our politicians and Sir Humphreys over several decades to understand that the EU's policy of EverCloserUnion actually meant EverCloserUnion and the consequent failure of Britain policy towards the EU.

    I do not blame the EU or other European countries for this - the failure was one of Britain's political leadership.
    My comment about the EU being united against us NOW is fact by the nature of them being on the other side of the negotiating table as a united front.

    Your comment was referencing that prior to Brexit, the reason why Brexit happened was due to the EU being united against our interests. If I have misinterpreted that, I apologise.
    I do not think the EU was united against us ** but it was united in support of EverCloserUnion which was a policy which Britain didn't support and didn't understand.

    And it was the unwillingness of British governments to understand this and their fantasies that 'Europe was coming our way' which in large part has led to the current situation.

    ** How much the strategy of EverCloserUnion was through opposition to 'the Anglo-Saxons' / a US dominated world I don't know.

    Anyway no need for apologies or harsh words, its all a bit of fun :smile:
    Fair enough. I don't disagree with your assessment of how we've got here.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

    In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
    in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

    And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.
    The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.
    The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

    Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

    Which the current higher rate tax band is.
    That's inflation not wage inflation.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,295
    rcs1000 said:

    Brexit is a consequence of the EU being united against us rather than a cause.

    It's like listening to 9/11 truthers. Jesus Christ.
    I see you're unable to respond to what I wrote.

    So instead you make an imbecilic comment.
    Translation: "I see I've succeeded in driving you mad."
    As Gallowgate seems unable to read either what I wrote or even what he has written himself he does seem to have problems.

    And anyone saying things like '9/11 truthers' has probably spent too much time on political websites.
    What is the right amount of time to spend on political websites? (Asking for a friend.)
    As long as it is less time than your friend spends on porn sites then nothing to worry about.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,106



    This is what you said at 8.17:

    " Now thanks

    This is what I said at 8.31:

    " Brexit is a consequence of the EU being united against us rather than a cause.

    The ever more desperate 'Germany will need an ally against France and 'France will need an ally against Germany' fantasies from our politicians and Sir Humphreys from 1990 onwards.

    Not to mention the 'if we broaden Europe we will stop a deeper Europe' and 'if make a concession now we gain goodwill for the future' wishful thinking. "

    I did not state that Europe was 'holding us down' so please don't claim I did.

    Now what my comment was referencing was the failure of our politicians and Sir Humphreys over several decades to understand that the EU's policy of EverCloserUnion actually meant EverCloserUnion and the consequent failure of Britain policy towards the EU.

    I do not blame the EU or other European countries for this - the failure was one of Britain's political leadership.

    My comment about the EU being united against us NOW is fact by the nature of them being on the other side of the negotiating table as a united front.

    Your comment was referencing that prior to Brexit, the reason why Brexit happened was due to the EU being united against our interests. If I have misinterpreted that, I apologise.
    I do not think the EU was united against us ** but it was united in support of EverCloserUnion which was a policy which Britain didn't support and didn't understand.

    And it was the unwillingness of British governments to understand this and their fantasies that 'Europe was coming our way' which in large part has led to the current situation.

    ** How much the strategy of EverCloserUnion was through opposition to 'the Anglo-Saxons' / a US dominated world I don't know.

    Anyway no need for apologies or harsh words, its all a bit of fun :smile:
    You are projecting your own views. In the 70s the British government was every bit as committed to ever closer union as the other members. The dialogue of the deaf only crept in much later on.
    So the 1970s ie before Thatcher's time as PM.

    Not to mention that the UK declined to join the ERM when it was formed in 1979:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Exchange_Rate_Mechanism#Historical_exchange-rate_regimes_for_EU_members
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,059

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Either that, or the ultimate result of the referendum is that England and Wales will leave the EU, and Scotland and Northern Ireland will join the Euro...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

    In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
    in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

    And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.
    The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.
    The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

    Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

    Which the current higher rate tax band is.
    That's inflation not wage inflation.
    You beat me to it. It should rise with wages, not just inflation, otherwise it is dragging in an ever greater proportion of the population.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,019
    edited June 11
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

    In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
    in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

    And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.
    The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.
    The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

    Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

    Which the current higher rate tax band is.
    Oops, my bad, wrong stat.

    The correct one is the proportion of people paying the higher rate, based on earnings inflation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,032



    This is what you said at 8.17:

    " Now thanks

    This is what I said at 8.31:

    " Brexit is a consequence of the EU being united against us rather than a cause.

    The ever more desperate 'Germany will need an ally against France and 'France will need an ally against Germany' fantasies from our politicians and Sir Humphreys from 1990 onwards.

    Not to mention the 'if we broaden Europe we will stop a deeper Europe' and 'if make a concession now we gain goodwill for the future' wishful thinking. "

    I did not state that Europe was 'holding us down' so please don't claim I did.

    Now what my comment was referencing was the failure of our politicians and Sir Humphreys over several decades to understand that the EU's policy of EverCloserUnion actually meant EverCloserUnion and the consequent failure of Britain policy towards the EU.

    I do not blame the EU or other European countries for this - the failure was one of Britain's political leadership.

    My comment about the EU being united against us NOW is fact by the nature of them being on the other side of the negotiating table as a united front.

    Your comment was referencing that prior to Brexit, the reason why Brexit happened was due to the EU being united against our interests. If I have misinterpreted that, I apologise.
    I do not think the EU was united against us ** but it was united in support of EverCloserUnion which was a policy which Britain didn't support and didn't understand.

    And it was the unwillingness of British governments to understand this and their fantasies that 'Europe was coming our way' which in large part has led to the current situation.

    ** How much the strategy of EverCloserUnion was through opposition to 'the Anglo-Saxons' / a US dominated world I don't know.

    Anyway no need for apologies or harsh words, its all a bit of fun :smile:
    You are projecting your own views. In the 70s the British government was every bit as committed to ever closer union as the other members. The dialogue of the deaf only crept in much later on.
    So the 1970s ie before Thatcher's time as PM.

    Not to mention that the UK declined to join the ERM when it was formed in 1979:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Exchange_Rate_Mechanism#Historical_exchange-rate_regimes_for_EU_members
    We were still repaying the IMF at that point.

    In practice, Thatcher was the most integrationist PM since we joined. She’d never have let us become marginalised like we were after she left office.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,032
    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Just rejoice at that news! Sceptics got greedy when they should have bitten Cameron’s hand off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    So applying the principles of a well known BBC show to the Tory leadership contest.

    Snog - Rory Stewart.

    Marry - Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Sajid Javid, and Mark Harper.

    Avoid - Andrea Leadsom, Dominic Raab, Esther McVey, and Boris Johnson.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 987

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

    I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

    etc. etc.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Wikipedia page for the Tory leadership lists by name 71 supporters for Boris Johnson but the number appearing against his name is stuck on 65.

    If it is this page it lists my MP, Andrew Murruson, as backing Raab, but he has come out for Boris, so it is not perfect.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2019_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election
    Unfortunately I can't edit it myself because someone's put a lock on it and only certain people can edit it. They're not doing a very good job of it though.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,126

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Rory 2nd, Jezza a distance back in 3rd?
    Rory really appeals to people who don't care about a politician's vision, values or policies as long as they say the word "sensible" a lot. A demographic which I think is a little overrepresented on pb and in the media class.
    Yes, the people who are very impressed with him seem to be those who voted Lib Dem at the Euros. Continuity Remainers & Cameroon’s. I think I’d quite like that kind of politician to be Conservative leader as it could mean the Remain vote is split further.
    Remember a lot of these same people were talking about a sensible Brexit compromise and how vital it is to avoid No Deal. Weird how few of them voted for the only party in the EU who was running on that platform, Labour.

    Ultimately, "sensible centrists" are just as ideological as everyone else, but because they don't recognise that, they don't understand the necessity of defending their ideology. Instead they exist in a state of perpetual astonishment that saying "can't we all just be grown-ups about this?" isn't winning people over.
    Labour was not running on any coherent platform. Labour was split between the soft Brexit and 2nd reffers. The Tory cabinet was in favour but not the ERG or Tory membership. People did not vote for those parties as they would not know what they are getting.

    I personally prefer remain but think the compromise soft brexit is a better solution for the country and would have voted for it if I felt any party represented it. On that basis I considered the Tories but not Labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    edited June 11
    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077
    How on earth is the higher rate tax band a drag on Middle Class aspiration? A couple earning 30k each are earning double the median household income. Comfortably middle class, comfortably basic rate.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,545
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

    In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
    in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

    And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.
    The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.
    The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

    Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

    Which the current higher rate tax band is.
    Actually, you're not including the personal allowance in your calculation. In 1988-89 that was £2605 for a single person, so the 40% rate kicked in above £21,905

    Using the Bank of England inflation calculator gives a value of £57,700 for 2018, but we're in the 2019-20 tax year now, so add another 2% on top, would give a higher figure, and the earliest a new rate would be introduced would be for the 2020-21 tax year, so a further 2%, and plausibly it could be a pledge delayed for implementation in the election year of 2022, so another two years of 2% inflation, which would give you a figure of £62,456 for the 2022-23 tax year.

    Still well short of Johnson's £80,000 but closer then I would have expected.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,032

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,106
    edited June 11

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but now I think they would twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506
    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    He'd better bloody not be.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 3,068
    If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

    It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

    The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506

    Pulpstar said:

    Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.

    I think you know the reason.
    Do we?
    A Leadsom supporter with more money than sense/wanting to creative a narrative.
    Seems to good to be true to me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,032
    nico67 said:

    If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

    It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

    The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.

    You mean England, which is why the break up of the UK is the best way to reconcile this. England can be a constructive partner in European integration more easily than the UK can.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515
    edited June 11

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

    There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but now I think they would twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    That guy who burst into McVey’s launch was uncannily like MF
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506

    Brexit is a consequence of the EU being united against us rather than a cause.

    It's like listening to 9/11 truthers. Jesus Christ.
    I see you're unable to respond to what I wrote.

    So instead you make an imbecilic comment.
    What else is there to say? To state that the EU was united against us and was somehow 'holding us down' is just simply wrong. It's not an opinion, it's just incorrect.
    This is what you said at 8.17:

    " Now thanks

    This is what I said at 8.31:

    " Brexit is a consequence of the EU being united against us rather than a cause.

    The ever more desperate 'Germany will need an ally against France and 'France will need an ally against Germany' fantasies from our politicians and Sir Humphreys from 1990 onwards.

    Not to mention the 'if we broaden Europe we will stop a deeper Europe' and 'if make a concession now we gain goodwill for the future' wishful thinking. "

    I did not state that Europe was 'holding us down' so please don't claim I did.

    Now what my comment was referencing was the failure of our politicians and Sir Humphreys over several decades to understand that the EU's policy of EverCloserUnion actually meant EverCloserUnion and the consequent failure of Britain policy towards the EU.

    I do not blame the EU or other European countries for this - the failure was one of Britain's political leadership.
    My comment about the EU being united against us NOW is fact by the nature of them being on the other side of the negotiating table as a united front.

    Your comment was referencing that prior to Brexit, the reason why Brexit happened was due to the EU being united against our interests. If I have misinterpreted that, I apologise.
    I do not think the EU was united against us ** but it was united in support of EverCloserUnion which was a policy which Britain didn't support and didn't understand.

    And it was the unwillingness of British governments to understand this and their fantasies that 'Europe was coming our way' which in large part has led to the current situation.

    ** How much the strategy of EverCloserUnion was through opposition to 'the Anglo-Saxons' / a US dominated world I don't know.

    Anyway no need for apologies or harsh words, its all a bit of fun :smile:
    You are projecting your own views. In the 70s the British government was every bit as committed to ever closer union as the other members. The dialogue of the deaf only crept in much later on.
    So are you.

    It was distant rhetoric at that stage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 987

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but now I think they would twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    That's a great quote!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506

    nico67 said:

    If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

    It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

    The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.

    You mean England, which is why the break up of the UK is the best way to reconcile this. England can be a constructive partner in European integration more easily than the UK can.
    You view the break up of the UK as just punishment for the UK voting to Leave.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461

    Pulpstar said:

    Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.

    I think you know the reason.
    Do we?
    A Leadsom supporter with more money than sense/wanting to creative a narrative.
    Seems to good to be true to me.
    Guido seems to agree with me, and he knows his betting.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    nico67 said:

    If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

    It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

    The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.

    Seems reasonable to me. So since we can't call the shots there's no need to be in the project.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,116
    edited June 11
    AndyJS said:
    His likely reason for doing so being shown in his preceding tweet relating to a forthcoming by-election (which the Tories might unexpectedly lose btw) he has been helping out with.

    It builds momentum for Boris.

    it's Bomentum.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    Wrong again. Moderate Euroscepticism is what most UK voters want.

    In fact, by your own admission, it was what Cameron was offering with his deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,032
    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

    There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
    True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506

    Pulpstar said:

    Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.

    I think you know the reason.
    Do we?
    A Leadsom supporter with more money than sense/wanting to creative a narrative.
    Seems to good to be true to me.
    Guido seems to agree with me, and he knows his betting.
    Guido gets it wrong all the time.

    If you consistently follow his tips you'll end up in the poor house.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,032

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    Wrong again. Moderate Euroscepticism is what most UK voters want.

    In fact, by your own admission, it was what Cameron was offering with his deal.
    What I mean is that people like you were on the wrong side in the referendum. You should have been campaigning for Dave’s deal as the most realistic Eurosceptic option on offer.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    The so-called "moderates" are the sort seeking to be half-pregnant.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I feel much the same way.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,670

    Pulpstar said:

    Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.

    I think you know the reason.
    Do we?
    A Leadsom supporter with more money than sense/wanting to creative a narrative.
    Seems to good to be true to me.
    Guido seems to agree with me, and he knows his betting.
    Maybe it's Boris Johnson, trying to get her into the last two.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    Wrong again. Moderate Euroscepticism is what most UK voters want.

    In fact, by your own admission, it was what Cameron was offering with his deal.
    What I mean is that people like you were on the wrong side in the referendum. You should have been campaigning for Dave’s deal as the most realistic Eurosceptic option on offer.
    That was May's Deal, which I've consistently argued for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,116
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    May was going to win a landslide too. I know I know, Boris has charisma, but the Borisgraph might want to temper their expectations.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,106


    I do not think the EU was united against us ** but it was united in support of EverCloserUnion which was a policy which Britain didn't support and didn't understand.

    And it was the unwillingness of British governments to understand this and their fantasies that 'Europe was coming our way' which in large part has led to the current situation.

    ** How much the strategy of EverCloserUnion was through opposition to 'the Anglo-Saxons' / a US dominated world I don't know.

    Anyway no need for apologies or harsh words, its all a bit of fun :smile:

    You are projecting your own views. In the 70s the British government was every bit as committed to ever closer union as the other members. The dialogue of the deaf only crept in much later on.
    So the 1970s ie before Thatcher's time as PM.

    Not to mention that the UK declined to join the ERM when it was formed in 1979:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Exchange_Rate_Mechanism#Historical_exchange-rate_regimes_for_EU_members
    We were still repaying the IMF at that point.

    In practice, Thatcher was the most integrationist PM since we joined. She’d never have let us become marginalised like we were after she left office.
    Thatcher would have been willing to bring the EU to a stop to get what she wanted which might have led the EU to take a somewhat different course.

    Rather than the posture, surrender and pretend which we had instead.

    Although Thatcher steadily became disenchanted with the EU and I can't see her approving the political dimension once the Cold War had ended.

    I do think the Soviet threat is forgotten about in regard to the early decades of the EU - its easier to be supportive of the political dimension when Western Europe needs to unite against the threat of invasion.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
    The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.
    Silly comments like this diminish you.
    Silly comments like that diminish him? The man is a silly comment. It's his thing.
    Ahem. This terrifying lack of self-awareness from the very guy who posted - and still believes - that Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag. Catch yourself fucking on.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

    I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

    There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
    True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.
    Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

    The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

    I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

    I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    This.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I feel much the same way.
    My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

    Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

    He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,106

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I think that people who are trying to make a little money from political gambling need to take a rational view of the cost and benefits, risks and rewards, and that rational mindset then influences our political views.

    With PBers being a varied bunch we also don't get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515
    edited June 11

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I feel much the same way.
    My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

    Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

    He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.
    Of all the times to make your last vote for Labour, 1983 is by far the weirdest to choose.

    Led by Michael Foot? Against a Falklands-charged Thatcher? With an ultra-left manifesto, the longest suicide note in history??
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    edited June 11
    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    "Up to" is a telling phrase.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I think that people who are trying to make a little money from political gambling need to take a rational view of the cost and benefits, risks and rewards, and that rational mindset then influences our political views.

    With PBers being a varied bunch we also don't get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
    Nor do we get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I feel much the same way.
    My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

    Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

    He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.
    Of all the times to make your only vote for Labour, 1983 is by far the weirdest to choose.

    Led by Michael Foot? Against a Falklands-charged Thatcher? With an ultra-left manifesto, the longest suicide note in history??
    My father was in his 20s/a junior doctor in those days, it was mandatory to vote Labour then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,506
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

    There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
    True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.
    Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

    The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.
    Again, fair.

    If we'd had a looser relationship baked in via the Lisbon Treaty, with a referendum as well, we'd never be here and BOO'ers (as they were then known) would have stayed a tiny minority.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

    I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    That's not that important. It was supposed to be the border that was the big deal apparently.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077
    edited June 11

    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

    Because as @Benpointer said, they will still be in the EU in a 'no deal' scenario. How are you not seeing the difference?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.

    So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.

    I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Interesting if true. A very big if.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,647

    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

    No Deal harms us much more than any other country.

    It isn't a negotiating card. There seems to be a complete failure of comprehension on the part of Brexiteers. They seem to think that No Deal is equivalent to walking away from a bad deal leaving the status quo in place. It ain't.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

    I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    That's not that important. It was supposed to be the border that was the big deal apparently.
    Good grief!

    The chaotic switching off of seamless trade between the UK and our biggest trading partner, the EU, is 'not important'?!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,654
    I must say I do like Rory Stewart - but he seems far too decent a human being to be a Tory.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I feel much the same way.
    My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

    Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

    He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.
    Of all the times to make your only vote for Labour, 1983 is by far the weirdest to choose.

    Led by Michael Foot? Against a Falklands-charged Thatcher? With an ultra-left manifesto, the longest suicide note in history??
    My father was in his 20s/a junior doctor in those days, it was mandatory to vote Labour then.
    OK. Still an odd time to turn away though. Surely 1983 was THE time to think, Uh, Michael Foot? No!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    Barnesian said:

    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

    No Deal harms us much more than any other country.

    It isn't a negotiating card. There seems to be a complete failure of comprehension on the part of Brexiteers. They seem to think that No Deal is equivalent to walking away from a bad deal leaving the status quo in place. It ain't.
    This is the Remainers version of BMW. "They need us more than we need them".

    No deal is walking away from the status quo and starting again from our own.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    justin124 said:

    I must say I do like Rory Stewart - but he seems far too decent a human being to be a Tory.

    Says the man who calls people trollops and bastards.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077

    Barnesian said:

    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

    No Deal harms us much more than any other country.

    It isn't a negotiating card. There seems to be a complete failure of comprehension on the part of Brexiteers. They seem to think that No Deal is equivalent to walking away from a bad deal leaving the status quo in place. It ain't.
    This is the Remainers version of BMW. "They need us more than we need them".

    No deal is walking away from the status quo and starting again from our own.
    At what cost?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,080
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Wow, that is nearly as big as Theresas majority in 2017, as predicted!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I feel much the same way.
    My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

    Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

    He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.
    Of all the times to make your only vote for Labour, 1983 is by far the weirdest to choose.

    Led by Michael Foot? Against a Falklands-charged Thatcher? With an ultra-left manifesto, the longest suicide note in history??
    My father was in his 20s/a junior doctor in those days, it was mandatory to vote Labour then.
    OK. Still an odd time to turn away though. Surely 1983 was THE time to think, Uh, Michael Foot? No!
    I think it was more contrarian, my father is of the view that humongous majorities are a bad thing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

    Because as @Benpointer said, they will still be in the EU in a 'no deal' scenario. How are you not seeing the difference?
    They'd still be in the EU in a 'deal but no backstop' scenario too. But that is apparently unthinkable.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,534
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

    There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
    True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.
    Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

    The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.
    That's exactly what Corbyn and McDonnell intend doing. Be careful what you wish for.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Wow, that is nearly as big as Theresas majority in 2017, as predicted!
    At the start of the 2017 campaign a Tory majority of 294 was predicted by the Tory internal polling.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 3,068
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Interesting if true. A very big if.
    Did they ask what his polling might be if he forced through a no deal and it was a disaster.

    The DT fawning over Bozo is quite embarrassing now.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077

    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

    Because as @Benpointer said, they will still be in the EU in a 'no deal' scenario. How are you not seeing the difference?
    They'd still be in the EU in a 'deal but no backstop' scenario too. But that is apparently unthinkable.
    It's not unthinkable, it's just not what they want. They have made one of their red lines the upholding the Good Friday Agreement. God forbid.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I think that people who are trying to make a little money from political gambling need to take a rational view of the cost and benefits, risks and rewards, and that rational mindset then influences our political views.

    With PBers being a varied bunch we also don't get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
    Nor do we get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
    I have to say, coming on this site - and hearing views from Corbynite left to UKIPPY right - makes me feel 500% better informed. Perhaps over-informed.

    It actually embarrasses me when I sit down with intelligent friends, of Left or Right, and they trot out their latest political theories, and I know they are talking complete nads. Precisely because I come to this website. Where I hear all opinions, AND I get the hard data.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261
    edited June 11
    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.

    So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.

    I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
    Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.

    The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.


  • Ultimately, any sensible, reasoned country would ensure a long transition period to prevent economic shocks. The knee-jerk reaction to leave in October 'COME WHAT MAY' is just insane.

    It flows from Remainers' determination to foil Brexit or failing that to reverse it. The sooner the Brexit, the sooner the fear of never leaving is extinguished. The harder the Brexit, the more comprehensive the bridge burning.

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,827
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Rory the new best thing since sliced bread would get the Torys 51seats.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.

    So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.

    I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
    Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.

    The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
    Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,032

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

    There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
    True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.
    Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

    The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.
    Again, fair.

    If we'd had a looser relationship baked in via the Lisbon Treaty, with a referendum as well, we'd never be here and BOO'ers (as they were then known) would have stayed a tiny minority.
    I think it’s a mistake to assume that the stable status quo would be a loose relationship. A loose relationship encourages sceptics to think we should be out altogether, which encourages the kind of dysfunctional politics that led us to the 2016 referendum.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261



    Ultimately, any sensible, reasoned country would ensure a long transition period to prevent economic shocks. The knee-jerk reaction to leave in October 'COME WHAT MAY' is just insane.

    It flows from Remainers' determination to foil Brexit or failing that to reverse it. The sooner the Brexit, the sooner the fear of never leaving is extinguished. The harder the Brexit, the more comprehensive the bridge burning.

    Here we go...

    The consequences of a chaotic No Deal exit will all be the fault of Remainers. Welcome to the post-truth world.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    It’s not just that. The rapidity into which we are moving to a cashless society means many people don’t even set eyes on cash from week to week, undermining the sentimental attachment. This will only grow. One day, the idea of having any patriotic feeling towards money you never see will seem utterly perverse.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,645
    edited June 11
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    I suspect there is little chance of a GE, if Boris did worse than May in seats his stint as PM would be down the toilet. Besides given the local elections, the european elections and the poor fundraising activities of the Tories i suspect even with an average honeymoon the next GE is more likley next spring than this autumn.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The fun upside if Boris does win is that his honeymoon period has a best before date of 31st October .

    May wasn’t despised for nearly 2 years.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515
    Scott_P said:
    I think this poll seals it for Boris (though I would like to see the question and methodology). The Tories are gonna roll the dice, faced with data like this. Buckle up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,080
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.

    So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.

    I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
    Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.

    The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
    Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".
    The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    .
    .
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
    .
    We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

    Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.

    So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.

    I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
    Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.

    The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
    Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".
    And ironically it was the UK that gave Ireland no strings attached support during the financial crisis above and beyond the EU 'more strings than a series of thunderbirds' did.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012



    Ultimately, any sensible, reasoned country would ensure a long transition period to prevent economic shocks. The knee-jerk reaction to leave in October 'COME WHAT MAY' is just insane.

    It flows from Remainers' determination to foil Brexit or failing that to reverse it. The sooner the Brexit, the sooner the fear of never leaving is extinguished. The harder the Brexit, the more comprehensive the bridge burning.

    This is an interesting question. I think a lot of Leavers want to make sure we leave as absolutely as possible, because that minimises the risk of the UK staying.

    My view is different. I suspect that a chaotic No Deal, one which exposed the existing flaws in the UK economy, and led to a painful recession, would probably put us in the worst of all positions.

    If you think of the UK as being made up of three roughly equal sized groups:

    - get us as far from the EU as possible
    - the democratic mandate should be carried out, but I don't care that much, and I would prefer to minimise disruption
    - the UK should be part of the EU

    A chaotic and unpleasant No Deal Brexit would alienate the second of these groups. No Deal would be blamed for all the bad things that happened in the UK, and the risk is that the second group would find itself seduced by the third.

    The only way to get a sustainable Brexit is to make sure as many people are on board as possible at every step. Since long before the vote, I said Brexit should be seen as a process. Right now, the Conservative Party is forgetting that, which will be bad for the UK, and bad for the sustainability of the Brexit settlement.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    Scott_P said:
    Seems a tad optimitic for Rory Stewart . . .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261
    _Anazina_ said:

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    It’s not just that. The rapidity into which we are moving to a cashless society means many people don’t even set eyes on cash from week to week, undermining the sentimental attachment. This will only grow. One day, the idea of having any patriotic feeling towards money you never see will seem utterly perverse.
    Hopefully, one day the idea of having any patriotic feeling at all will fade. :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    Looking at that graphic, a Tory majority of 140 on a vote share of 33%?

    Seems heroic if you ask me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    edited June 11
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    On those figures Let’s have a Rory win :)
This discussion has been closed.