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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Johnson launches CON membership polling finds his backers more likely to want a no deal Brexit and less emphasis on climate change

 

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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Boris for federalism!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    FPT:

    Can't you raise the bar a bit? Honestly the Brexiteers aren't helping their cause at the moment by continuing to shout trite soundbites from the touchline. We had all this in 2016 and people have begun to see right through it. Simply shouting that things are 'project fear' or airily that 'we will make trade deals' doesn't make them true.
    It takes two to tango.

    Stop making absurd fearful projections and we won't need to dismiss them. Stop dismissing our optimistic projections and we won't need to repeat them.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767
    20 minutes to go. Will there be a crest on Boris's lectern?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    The first graph has a dodgy Y-axis.

    We could equally say 73% of Boris backers don't want less emphasis on climate change.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,959
    Do old habits when publishing dodgy Lib Dem bar charts die hard? In this case, the vertical scale of one chart is some three times that of the other, yet comparisons are being made as if the scales are the same.

    So that poll cannot be used to assert that "The approach to Brexit is not that surprising but it is climate change which sees a bigger gap between Johnson backers and those supporting Gove or Hunt." The difference is 19%/17% on climate change. It's 33%/48% on No Deal Brexit.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767
    Yes but when it comes to betting on the next PM, we are in a Keynesian beauty contest. We need to assess what Conservative MPs will make of the polling, regardless of what it really tells us.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878

    Do old habits when publishing dodgy Lib Dem bar charts die hard? In this case, the vertical scale of one chart is some three times that of the other, yet comparisons are being made as if the scales are the same.

    So that poll cannot be used to assert that "The approach to Brexit is not that surprising but it is climate change which sees a bigger gap between Johnson backers and those supporting Gove or Hunt." The difference is 19%/17% on climate change. It's 33%/48% on No Deal Brexit.

    Indeed. Very dodgy Y-axis. In the real world 33%/48% is much bigger than 19%/17%

    Not to mention that whether it is 73%, 92% or 90% a vast majority of Boris, Gove and Hunt supporters don't want less emphasis on climate change. Its not an issue.

    Whereas its safe to say Boris supporters (85%) do want no deal, Gove supporters (52%) are split with a small majority while Hunt supporters (37%) overall do not.

    One of these topics is a subject, the other is moot.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 104
    Whoever came up with that graph should be tarred and feathered.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    FPT
    Sorry but that's ridiculous by Will Straw. Number 10 had no authority to block posters from being released any more than Vote Leave could block Farage's "Breaking Point" poster which they hated and thought was counter-productive.

    Labour [or any other party] were free to release that poster if they wanted to do so.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    Scott_P said:
    Utterly pathetic. We've had over 2 years since Article 50 was invoked.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,643

    FPT

    Sorry but that's ridiculous by Will Straw. Number 10 had no authority to block posters from being released any more than Vote Leave could block Farage's "Breaking Point" poster which they hated and thought was counter-productive.

    Labour [or any other party] were free to release that poster if they wanted to do so.
    That's an interesting point. All Out War suggests that Will Straw et al were largely window dressing. When it got serious all the big decisions were made by Cameron and Osborne.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 800
    Video link to launch event...

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767
    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    Sorry but that's ridiculous by Will Straw. Number 10 had no authority to block posters from being released any more than Vote Leave could block Farage's "Breaking Point" poster which they hated and thought was counter-productive.

    Labour [or any other party] were free to release that poster if they wanted to do so.
    That's an interesting point. All Out War suggests that Will Straw et al were largely window dressing. When it got serious all the big decisions were made by Cameron and Osborne.
    That would be the same Cameron and Osborne who almost lost Scotland despite starting with a huge lead on Sindyref.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    Sorry but that's ridiculous by Will Straw. Number 10 had no authority to block posters from being released any more than Vote Leave could block Farage's "Breaking Point" poster which they hated and thought was counter-productive.

    Labour [or any other party] were free to release that poster if they wanted to do so.
    That's an interesting point. All Out War suggests that Will Straw et al were largely window dressing. When it got serious all the big decisions were made by Cameron and Osborne.
    Considering the three largest opposition parties by MPs were all in favour of Remain at least one of them could have got stuck in and put out a poster like that. Pathetic to cry about Cameron and Osborne afterwards.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,731
    edited June 12
    Gadfly said:

    Video link to launch event...

    #BackBoris :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878
    Go Boris!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,777

    FPT:

    Can't you raise the bar a bit? Honestly the Brexiteers aren't helping their cause at the moment by continuing to shout trite soundbites from the touchline. We had all this in 2016 and people have begun to see right through it. Simply shouting that things are 'project fear' or airily that 'we will make trade deals' doesn't make them true.
    It takes two to tango.

    Stop making absurd fearful projections and we won't need to dismiss them. Stop dismissing our optimistic projections and we won't need to repeat them.
    So, Leave projections are not to be challenged, Remain projections are not to be made. How very open of you.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    Sorry but that's ridiculous by Will Straw. Number 10 had no authority to block posters from being released any more than Vote Leave could block Farage's "Breaking Point" poster which they hated and thought was counter-productive.

    Labour [or any other party] were free to release that poster if they wanted to do so.
    That's an interesting point. All Out War suggests that Will Straw et al were largely window dressing. When it got serious all the big decisions were made by Cameron and Osborne.
    That would be the same Cameron and Osborne who almost lost Scotland despite starting with a huge lead on Sindyref.
    SNP or Labour both could have released a Boris-in-Farage-pocket poster and given they were the "victims" of the previous poster would have got a lot of media attention as revenge served cold.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767

    Go Boris!

    Something on which we can all agree.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    Go Boris!

    There will be very many wanting him to 'Go' but not in the way you put it
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    Sorry but that's ridiculous by Will Straw. Number 10 had no authority to block posters from being released any more than Vote Leave could block Farage's "Breaking Point" poster which they hated and thought was counter-productive.

    Labour [or any other party] were free to release that poster if they wanted to do so.
    That's an interesting point. All Out War suggests that Will Straw et al were largely window dressing. When it got serious all the big decisions were made by Cameron and Osborne.
    That would be the same Cameron and Osborne who almost lost Scotland despite starting with a huge lead on Sindyref.
    SNP or Labour both could have released a Boris-in-Farage-pocket poster and given they were the "victims" of the previous poster would have got a lot of media attention as revenge served cold.
    Remember there were the two official campaigns, not each party running its own.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Not exactly up there with the theatre of Rory's launch.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    Cox about to introduce Boris
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,731

    Not exactly up there with the theatre of Rory's launch.

    He's got the Tory Trollop and The Quiet Man on the front row...

    What else does he need? :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Cox doing the intro.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    I remember when Cox was briefly the one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Ouch. A managerial approach will not suffice.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    Johnson is the Trump candidate, so it is not surprising that he attracts those who approve of the Trump agenda.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767
    GIN1138 said:

    Gadfly said:

    Video link to launch event...

    #BackBoris :D
    backBoris.com
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    Ouch. A managerial approach will not suffice.

    Good line
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,731
    Boris!!!!!!!!!!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,526
    First gaff English football teams which are quite dependent of FOM for getting best players.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,679
    Interview with the man behind Titania McGrath & Jonathan Pie, Andrew Doyle. Have to agree with his reasons for satirising the ‘Woke’ types who pride themselves on their righteousness, using tenuous guilt by association techniques whilst presenting themselves as a victim despite being privileged



  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,630

    Go Boris!

    To Iran for a prisoner swap. Agreed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    nichomar said:

    First gaff English football teams which are quite dependent of FOM for getting best players.

    I think that is a bit obscure. Sure there will be better ones
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,643
    nichomar said:

    First gaff English football teams which are quite dependent of FOM for getting best players.

    What's his point?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,663
    Boris has no answers about how to get a 'better deal'.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070

    FPT:

    Can't you raise the bar a bit? Honestly the Brexiteers aren't helping their cause at the moment by continuing to shout trite soundbites from the touchline. We had all this in 2016 and people have begun to see right through it. Simply shouting that things are 'project fear' or airily that 'we will make trade deals' doesn't make them true.
    It takes two to tango.

    Stop making absurd fearful projections and we won't need to dismiss them. Stop dismissing our optimistic projections and we won't need to repeat them.
    For sure. I oppose a No Deal Brexit because I think it will cause jobs and businesses to be lost that need not be lost, and poison relations with some allies, unnecessarily.

    Not because I think we're going to run out of food or medicines, or suffer an economic blow that will take generations to recover from.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314

    Ouch. A managerial approach will not suffice.

    Dunno I quite enjoyed Mark Harper's presentation. I have a meeting like that on most Monday mornings at work :D
  • isamisam Posts: 27,679
    nichomar said:

    First gaff English football teams which are quite dependent of FOM for getting best players.

    Are they? Premiership footballers from top 6 teams could play for them with or without FOM, as they are generally internationals with lots of caps.

    Liverpool’s foreign players are mainly non EU nationals; Salah, Mane, Firmino, Keita, Fabinho, Alisson to name six.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    Boris has no answers about how to get a 'better deal'.

    No one has
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,663

    Boris has no answers about how to get a 'better deal'.

    No one has
    Exactly... This is cloud cuckoo land.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,526
    tlg86 said:

    nichomar said:

    First gaff English football teams which are quite dependent of FOM for getting best players.

    What's his point?
    That English teams did so well in Europe despite us voting to leave a joke without thought
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,643
    isam said:

    nichomar said:

    First gaff English football teams which are quite dependent of FOM for getting best players.

    Are they? Premiership footballers from top 6 teams could play for them with or without FOM, as they are generally internationals with lots of caps.

    Liverpool’s foreign players are mainly non EU nationals; Salah, Mane, Firmino, Keita, Fabinho, Alisson to name six.
    Indeed, its poaching EU youngsters that would change - assuming the rules were applied as they are to non-EU players.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,206

    Scott_P said:
    Utterly pathetic. We've had over 2 years since Article 50 was invoked.
    What do you think? Just scaremongering? Or not scaremongering, but culpable negligence on the part of the government?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,663
    Is that all Boris has to say on Brexit? Trust me folks, I'll just make it better??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Pulpstar said:

    Ouch. A managerial approach will not suffice.

    Dunno I quite enjoyed Mark Harper's presentation. I have a meeting like that on most Monday mornings at work :D
    Mark Harper - The middle management choice
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 900
    Johnson said since referendum UK economy has grown much faster than the rest of the EU.

    That is just untrue.

    Between Q2 2016 and Q1 2019 the UK economy grew less than 5% while the EU27 grew by over 6%.

    If he can't even be bothered to fact check the opening lines of his leadership pitch, what does it tell you about how he will govern?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    I see The Ludicrous Cox has made a deeply unwelcome return to the pulpit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,643
    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    nichomar said:

    First gaff English football teams which are quite dependent of FOM for getting best players.

    What's his point?
    That English teams did so well in Europe despite us voting to leave a joke without thought
    Ah right, thanks.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,630
    The whizz-bang candidate has had a charisma by-pass today.

    Lynton at work ....

    The close up "BACK BORIS" with the larger "OR" backdrop bound to be used on social media and in the press.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    edited June 12
    Good on the 'left behind'. But just words.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    Blah blah optimism blah blah more optimism.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,878

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    Sorry but that's ridiculous by Will Straw. Number 10 had no authority to block posters from being released any more than Vote Leave could block Farage's "Breaking Point" poster which they hated and thought was counter-productive.

    Labour [or any other party] were free to release that poster if they wanted to do so.
    That's an interesting point. All Out War suggests that Will Straw et al were largely window dressing. When it got serious all the big decisions were made by Cameron and Osborne.
    That would be the same Cameron and Osborne who almost lost Scotland despite starting with a huge lead on Sindyref.
    SNP or Labour both could have released a Boris-in-Farage-pocket poster and given they were the "victims" of the previous poster would have got a lot of media attention as revenge served cold.
    Remember there were the two official campaigns, not each party running its own.
    No. There were two official campaigns, multiple unofficial ones AND each party running it's own. That is how come the Remain campaigners outspent Leave campaigners so dramatically. It is also how come posters like Breaking Point came out despite being hated by the official Leave campaign.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,663
    This is a very bad speech. Nothing of value or insight apart from apple pie and waffle.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    Ramble, ramble, ramble, ramble
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,731
    Boris doing perfectly fine with his speech.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Bit on Jezza and the Jews gets big applause.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris doing perfectly fine with his speech.

    Vacuous stuff.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,526
    Complete bollocks so far
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415

    This is a very bad speech. Nothing of value or insight apart from apple pie and waffle.

    Safety first. He is, as Jenkins said of Blair, a man who only has to carry a rare ming jar across a room without dropping it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    Bit on Jezza and the Jews gets big applause.

    He will be a real threat to Corbyn if he wins
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,630

    Ramble, ramble, ramble, ramble

    Rory enjoys a good ramble too .... :smile:
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,530
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris doing perfectly fine with his speech.

    zzzzzzz
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    Now the fun part ..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    So long as Boris doesn't soil himself his speech should be good enough
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    Six questions. Wow!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Job done. Though he doesn't look very happy about it.

    Subdued.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,679
    Not watching, but as the overwhelming favourite with a reputation of being a clown, the only option for Boris was surely to play it straight & sensible? Trying to be quirky a la Rory Stewart is only an option for long shots, or those thought of as dull (Hancocks newfound goofiness and TMs dancing queen routine for instance)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    edited June 12
    Lol 😆

    Souper reply to question from Laura K.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,731
    _Anazina_ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris doing perfectly fine with his speech.

    Vacuous stuff.
    LOL!

    People who don't like Boris (majority on here) will think it's terrible because everything he does is terrible but objectively it's perfectly fine.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,206
    Apart from committing himself absolutely to leave the EU on 31 October come hell or high water!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    _Anazina_ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris doing perfectly fine with his speech.

    Vacuous stuff.
    Was always going to be...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,663
    Bit of a weak question from LK...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,360
    2-0 up with time running out. Forget the beautiful game. Take it to the corner flag.

    Could be Lynton Crosby. Could be Jose Mourinho. Good advice regardless.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    TGOHF said:

    Lol 😆

    Souper reply to question from Laura K.

    It really was
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,206
    GIN1138 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris doing perfectly fine with his speech.

    Vacuous stuff.
    LOL!

    People who don't like Boris (majority on here) will think it's terrible because everything he does is terrible but objectively it's perfectly fine.
    No, objectively it's terrible.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,526
    What new mandate?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    He is bloody good at stalling while he thinks of an answer by making a jokey comment on the question. This one: a "minestrone of observations"
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    A fairly probing question by the usually hopeless Laura K – albeit rather long, 'look at me', and rambling.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    This is deeply unimpressive. So much waffle.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,663
    WTF????? Boris thinks that if he strolls up and say, 'hey what johnny foreigner, lets do a better deal, he'll just get it'.

    He's deluded or a liar, and probably both.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Boris Trumpton has put on a LOT of weight. Is he trying to outdo The Real Trumpton?
  • isamisam Posts: 27,679

    This is deeply unimpressive. So much waffle.

    If you dont like it, dont come here!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    Labour GAIN Beth Rigby.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Crowd booing Beth's question. Very Faragist and Jezza.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    It's like a Corbyn appearance. Supporters booing difficult questions and cheering answers.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,767
    edited June 12
    _Anazina_ said:

    Boris Trumpton has put on a LOT of weight. Is he trying to outdo The Real Trumpton?

    Tbh I think Boris might have slimmed down since we last saw him.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,477
    Boris Johnson admits speeding...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,415
    Who is in the audience. A load of Leaver yobs off the street or fellow MPs?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,663
    Dodges the drugs question.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,643

    Boris Johnson admits speeding...

    Lock him up.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,608
    Boris drifting on Betfair.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,679
    "To confirm what I had already decided, I went undercover to infiltrate this den of crypto-fascism with my good friend Yohann Koshy, whose devastating account of the goings-on at the club has since been published by the online magazine VICE.

    As a professional journalist, Yohann had already written his response to the show before actually seeing it, and was hoping to augment the piece with a few choice quotations from the night.

    ‘Don’t worry,’ I told him. ‘We know what they were thinking. All you need to do is quote a few lines out of context, emphasize the right-wing audience members..."

    https://spectator.us/terrifying-journey-far-right-comedy/
This discussion has been closed.