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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democra

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  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,082


    What % of the market do informed punters on pb.com represent?

    It's a £3.9m market. I've got 0.06% of the market. If we assume there are 200 very serious punters lurking or posting on here then we'd still only be at 12% of it.


    That's the nice thing about markets - as long as you have a decent diversity of opinion, the final pricing tends to be reasonably accurate. Wisdom of the crowds etc.

    It maybe breaks down a bit with the longer priced ones admittedly, or when somebody is deliberately trying to distort prices a la Leadsom.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,003
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd like to know whether Andrea Leadsom's odds are due to stupid punters or someone trying to artificially inflate her standing.

    Probably both.

    What % of the market do informed punters on pb.com represent?

    It's a £3.9m market. I've got 0.06% of the market. If we assume there are 200 very serious punters lurking or posting on here then we'd still only be at 12% of it.
    You have over £23K at stake in this market? Blimey. I can't work out if that is ambitious or reckless but I tend to the latter.
    Depends if that's all on Leadsom or is trading bets on all candidates. If trading bets I imagine he may have bet on both sides for some candidates.

    Backing someone on very long odds and laying off at short gives you a double share of bets on the market but you win either way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,945
    Jonathan said:

    The Boris playbook is simple

    Negotiate with Brussels
    Fail
    Go to the country in October for No Deal Brexit mandate
    .... Brexit party steps aside pledged Tories
    .... Dissolved Parliament cannot challenge him.
    Majority with Brexit Party
    We’re out
    Five years to make it work.


    Game,Set and Match

    Yep, that's the plan.

    Will it work?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,617
    Nigelb said:

    So why does de Blasio get the same negative rating as Sanders ?
    Rather messes up that way of looking at it.

    I guess because de Blasio is actively, positively disliked.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 24,284
    Jonathan said:

    The Boris playbook is simple

    Negotiate with Brussels
    Fail
    Go to the country in October for No Deal Brexit mandate
    .... Brexit party steps aside pledged Tories
    .... Dissolved Parliament cannot challenge him.
    Majority with Brexit Party
    We’re out
    Five years to make it work.


    Game,Set and Match

    If that's his plan it's bonkers. Firstly he can't realistically call a GE on a No Deal mandate, with at least a third of his MPs and possibly more dead against it, and with no time to put in place the emergency legislation needed for No Deal. Secondly the Brexit Party won't step aside. Thirdly parliament might find a way to stop him crashing us out. And fourthly, if by some horrendous chance he actually managed to crash us out in chaos on time, he'd very rapidly be the most reviled PM in modern history with his party completely trashed.

    But yes, that might be the plan.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Andrew said:


    What % of the market do informed punters on pb.com represent?

    It's a £3.9m market. I've got 0.06% of the market. If we assume there are 200 very serious punters lurking or posting on here then we'd still only be at 12% of it.


    That's the nice thing about markets - as long as you have a decent diversity of opinion, the final pricing tends to be reasonably accurate. Wisdom of the crowds etc.

    It maybe breaks down a bit with the longer priced ones admittedly, or when somebody is deliberately trying to distort prices a la Leadsom.

    Free money laying Leadsom.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,003


    While very small countries can benefit exceptionally well, we can still benefit too. We still benefit from lower but more effective taxation. And we can still attract more business.

    That may or may not be true but the question polled was "lowest tax in Europe" not just "lower".
    Lowest of one tax doesn't mean you don't have other taxes.

    Even if you abolished corporation tax you would still take in taxes from other sources from corporations and their employees.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,945
    Why is any Tory appearing on Channel "Fuck The Tories" 4?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,003
    I'm starting to think its increasingly likely the great Betfair June/July resign debate could be moot. We could have PM Boris by this time next week.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I'm starting to think its increasingly likely the great Betfair June/July resign debate could be moot. We could have PM Boris by this time next week.

    The membership won't accept another coronation.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,945
    edited June 12

    I'm starting to think its increasingly likely the great Betfair June/July resign debate could be moot. We could have PM Boris by this time next week.

    I've thought that for a little while.

    It just depends whether the runner up thinks its worth carrying on to the membership.

    I guess they might do as with Boris you never know if something unexpected is going to blow up but really it all seems like a bit of a waste of time.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,414
    Floater said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    ”Robert Saunders, a historian of democracy, writes in his introduction to the series, British Conservatism has “broken with three of its most important traditions. It has stopped thinking; it has stopped ‘conserving’; and it has lost its suspicion of ideology.”
    "The Race Delusion - Michael Brooks: Why our racial identities are nothing to with genetic science"
    From that piece:

    "Almost all scientists working in this field will tell you that race is a social construct. It has little to do with genetic ancestry, and much to do with how people choose to identify and who they choose to identify with."

    Or in other words the answer to the question you struggle with about whether Islam is a race is pretty much yes.
    No, it really isn't - just like other world religions

    There seems, just on a quick bit of research, that there is far from scholastic unanimity with regards to viewing race as a social construct.

    There is certainly a political movement behind that idea - but it appears to be clustered around historians, anthropologists and social scientists. They seem to be wishing to redefine the meaning of the term race rather than to explore the science behind our differences/similarities.

    Of course, if you buy into that particular world view, you will agree that race is a social construct. So whilst it may be technically true to say 'almost all scientists working in this field' - I suspect the truth is actually more along the lines 'almost all social scientists working in the field of race as a social construct' rather than all scientists looking at human genetics.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 12
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    India vs Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge tomorrow would be a cracker of a match, but unsurprisingly the forecast is not promising.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641170

    Result for England if rained off - cost India a point. They would pump the Lankans.

    Why did I write India vs Sri Lanka? It's India vs New Zealand. Sorry about that mistake.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,690
    edited June 12
    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    India vs Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge tomorrow would be a cracker of a match, but unsurprisingly the forecast is not promising.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641170

    Result for England if rained off - cost India a point. They would pump the Lankans.

    Not a result for the World Cup however. Do a Twitter search on "World Cup" and "rain" and you will find many many cricket fans around the world, especially in Asia, incensed at its despoiling by the English climate. And they have a point.

    The home of cricket is now the subcontinent. That's where the money is. They rightly expect to see a proper World Cup, not a series of washouts. With thousands of fans disappointed, and TV schedules inoperative....

    England won't get to host another World Cup, unless we can either 1, prove we have a system of reserve days that works, or 2. build at least two grounds with roofs.
    Boo frikking hoo to fans in Asia.

    England are one of the big three in world cricket and will host the ODI World Cup In 2035 with the T20 World Cup before then. The sun is coming out Friday - teams have 9 games to qualify- plenty of time for cream to rise to the top.
    If we are one of the "big three" in a sport then we need to step up, and show we can host major tournaments without a glitch. This was potentially a great tournament, but the weather has damaged it (undeniably) and is in danger of ruining it (though I hope you are right, and I am wrong)

    Just build one or two roofs! It can be done.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,116
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    ”Robert Saunders, a historian of democracy, writes in his introduction to the series, British Conservatism has “broken with three of its most important traditions. It has stopped thinking; it has stopped ‘conserving’; and it has lost its suspicion of ideology.”
    "The Race Delusion - Michael Brooks: Why our racial identities are nothing to with genetic science"
    From that piece:

    "Almost all scientists working in this field will tell you that race is a social construct. It has little to do with genetic ancestry, and much to do with how people choose to identify and who they choose to identify with."

    Or in other words the answer to the question you struggle with about whether Islam is a race is pretty much yes.
    And therefore nothing to do with genetics.
    Possibly wrong, actually. There is a school of thought that we have an innate God module as well as a language module in the brain which predispose us to acquire both a mother tongue and a religion from our parents. So genetics is an important part of it though the actual choice of language and religion is up to our parents.
    Yeah, I guess that's why, despite being born in India to ethnically Indian parents, I'm an English-speaking atheist!
    I am not sure I understand the relevance of that.
    Er, disproving what you said above?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,671
    edited June 12

    kyf_100 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Boris has the Big Mo now. He has won more today than 4 candidates have so far. Some MPs will back him now not because they think he is best choice but because they think he will win.

    He will.
    The Tory party is presented with a choice between two Old Etonians. One has a genuine vision of what is needed in these times - is clearly very gifted - is guided by the needs of all his countrymen. A truly good man.
    The other is a shyster of the worst kind at so many levels which extend far beyond politics. A malign individual guided by nothing more than personal self interest and completely devoid of principle or morality.
    We know who the Tories will choose - and that choice will convey so much about what they really amount to as human beings.A lower form of life indeed.
    Ultra-Remainers like you are making a major tactical error; maybe a strategic error.

    They cannot hide their histrionic loathing of Boris (which largely stems from the simple fact he delivered Brexit), and when Remainers criticise him they go totally over the top. I mean "a shyster of the worst kind at so many levels which extend far beyond politics"? It comes across as nuts. Boris may be a womanising wanker, but he isn't Mussolini.

    See Matthew Parris, passim. On every other issue Parris is measured and clever, when it comes to Boris he talks darkly and weirdly of conspiracies, and rants and foams about Boris's moral failings.

    This doesn't persuade anyone who does not already agree. It makes Parris look mildly unhinged. And an entire subset of the chatterati are already losing it, just like Parris - simply because Boris.

    The entirely predictable result - unless Remainers are very careful, and rein it in - will be a growing sympathy for Boris, and whatever he does. Stupid.
    Just a reminder that in disguise you are supposed to be pretending to be a remainer...
    lol. I get that this is your thing, and turns you on. Go for it.
    Not that anyone cares but I reckon Byronic is SeanT too (IP addresses are not hard to hide). Syntax and vocabulary are too alike.
    No, I am SeanT!
    It's a fair cop I am SeanT. Corbyn's a t**t
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 12
    TGOHF said:

    If Boris turns up for the big leagues debates eg BBC, Sky or ITV then it doesn’t matter if he skips the biased C4 effort. Cathy Newman calling them all waycists is a waste of time.

    So what you are really saying Rory/Dom/Andrea/Sajid/Matt/Michael/Jeremy - and let me paraphrase - is why isn’t Boris here?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,116
    AndyJS said:

    I'm starting to think its increasingly likely the great Betfair June/July resign debate could be moot. We could have PM Boris by this time next week.

    The membership won't accept another coronation.
    The only Tory coronation since 1965 was Howard in 2003. There was no ballot of either MPs or membership.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    India vs Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge tomorrow would be a cracker of a match, but unsurprisingly the forecast is not promising.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641170

    Result for England if rained off - cost India a point. They would pump the Lankans.

    Not a result for the World Cup however. Do a Twitter search on "World Cup" and "rain" and you will find many many cricket fans around the world, especially in Asia, incensed at its despoiling by the English climate. And they have a point.

    The home of cricket is now the subcontinent. That's where the money is. They rightly expect to see a proper World Cup, not a series of washouts. With thousands of fans disappointed, and TV schedules inoperative....

    England won't get to host another World Cup, unless we can either 1, prove we have a system of reserve days that works, or 2. build at least two grounds with roofs.
    Boo frikking hoo to fans in Asia.

    England are one of the big three in world cricket and will host the ODI World Cup In 2035 with the T20 World Cup before then. The sun is coming out Friday - teams have 9 games to qualify- plenty of time for cream to rise to the top.
    If we are one of the "big three" in a sport then we need to step up, and show we can host major tournaments without a glitch. This was potentially a great tournament, but the weather has damaged it (undeniably) and is in danger of ruining it (though I hope you are right, and I am wrong)

    Just build one or two roofs! It can be done.
    You seem out of the loop - this is an ICC tournament run by the ICC with the format set by the ICC with ICC pitches , ICC sponsors - including Indian cooking lager on sale in the grounds and ICC rules.

    Hosted in England but that’s it. ECB input is minimal.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    Why is any Tory appearing on Channel "Fuck The Tories" 4?


    Will be Rory , Hancock, the manager guy and 7 packs of lard.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 10,708
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd like to know whether Andrea Leadsom's odds are due to stupid punters or someone trying to artificially inflate her standing.

    Probably both.

    What % of the market do informed punters on pb.com represent?

    It's a £3.9m market. I've got 0.06% of the market. If we assume there are 200 very serious punters lurking or posting on here then we'd still only be at 12% of it.
    You have over £23K at stake in this market? Blimey. I can't work out if that is ambitious or reckless but I tend to the latter.
    3,900,000 x 0.06/100 = 2,340. Not 23,400.

    He's covering £234 at odds of 10/1. he places £2340 with Betfair Exchange. The other guy places £234 with Betfair Exchange.

    When Leadsom fails @Casino_Royale will get his £2340 plus the other guy's £234 (minus any fees). The Leadsome Whale (the hypothesised Leadsome megabacker) will lose £234 but gain publicity for Leadsome, which some believe is the point of the exercise.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,690
    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    India vs Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge tomorrow would be a cracker of a match, but unsurprisingly the forecast is not promising.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641170

    Result for England if rained off - cost India a point. They would pump the Lankans.

    Not a result for the World Cup however. Do a Twitter search on "World Cup" and "rain" and you will find many many cricket fans around the world, especially in Asia, incensed at its despoiling by the English climate. And they have a point.

    The home of cricket is now the subcontinent. That's where the money is. They rightly expect to see a proper World Cup, not a series of washouts. With thousands of fans disappointed, and TV schedules inoperative....

    England won't get to host another World Cup, unless we can either 1, prove we have a system of reserve days that works, or 2. build at least two grounds with roofs.
    Boo frikking hoo to fans in Asia.

    England are one of the big three in world cricket and will host the ODI World Cup In 2035 with the T20 World Cup before then. The sun is coming out Friday - teams have 9 games to qualify- plenty of time for cream to rise to the top.
    If we are one of the "big three" in a sport then we need to step up, and show we can host major tournaments without a glitch. This was potentially a great tournament, but the weather has damaged it (undeniably) and is in danger of ruining it (though I hope you are right, and I am wrong)

    Just build one or two roofs! It can be done.
    You seem out of the loop - this is an ICC tournament run by the ICC with the format set by the ICC with ICC pitches , ICC sponsors - including Indian cooking lager on sale in the grounds and ICC rules.

    Hosted in England but that’s it. ECB input is minimal.
    I have been reading the politics behind it. Seems there are some major rows about the broadcasting as well

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2019/jun/11/cricket-world-cup-televised-coverage

    Such a shame. A missed opportunity, in several ways.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    India vs Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge tomorrow would be a cracker of a match, but unsurprisingly the forecast is not promising.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641170

    Result for England if rained off - cost India a point. They would pump the Lankans.

    Not a result for the World Cup however. Do a Twitter search on "World Cup" and "rain" and you will find many many cricket fans around the world, especially in Asia, incensed at its despoiling by the English climate. And they have a point.

    The home of cricket is now the subcontinent. That's where the money is. They rightly expect to see a proper World Cup, not a series of washouts. With thousands of fans disappointed, and TV schedules inoperative....

    England won't get to host another World Cup, unless we can either 1, prove we have a system of reserve days that works, or 2. build at least two grounds with roofs.
    Boo frikking hoo to fans in Asia.

    England are one of the big three in world cricket and will host the ODI World Cup In 2035 with the T20 World Cup before then. The sun is coming out Friday - teams have 9 games to qualify- plenty of time for cream to rise to the top.
    If we are one of the "big three" in a sport then we need to step up, and show we can host major tournaments without a glitch. This was potentially a great tournament, but the weather has damaged it (undeniably) and is in danger of ruining it (though I hope you are right, and I am wrong)

    Just build one or two roofs! It can be done.
    You seem out of the loop - this is an ICC tournament run by the ICC with the format set by the ICC with ICC pitches , ICC sponsors - including Indian cooking lager on sale in the grounds and ICC rules.

    Hosted in England but that’s it. ECB input is minimal.
    I have been reading the politics behind it. Seems there are some major rows about the broadcasting as well

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2019/jun/11/cricket-world-cup-televised-coverage

    Such a shame. A missed opportunity, in several ways.
    The ICC just want the cash - they don’t care about free to air coverage in the Uk. Sky dollars win every time.

    As bad as FIFA. Still it’s been a fun tournament if you have Sky Sports. Those with council tv are missing out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,116
    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    India vs Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge tomorrow would be a cracker of a match, but unsurprisingly the forecast is not promising.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641170

    Result for England if rained off - cost India a point. They would pump the Lankans.

    Not a result for the World Cup however. Do a Twitter search on "World Cup" and "rain" and you will find many many cricket fans around the world, especially in Asia, incensed at its despoiling by the English climate. And they have a point.

    The home of cricket is now the subcontinent. That's where the money is. They rightly expect to see a proper World Cup, not a series of washouts. With thousands of fans disappointed, and TV schedules inoperative....

    England won't get to host another World Cup, unless we can either 1, prove we have a system of reserve days that works, or 2. build at least two grounds with roofs.
    Boo frikking hoo to fans in Asia.

    England are one of the big three in world cricket and will host the ODI World Cup In 2035 with the T20 World Cup before then. The sun is coming out Friday - teams have 9 games to qualify- plenty of time for cream to rise to the top.
    If we are one of the "big three" in a sport then we need to step up, and show we can host major tournaments without a glitch. This was potentially a great tournament, but the weather has damaged it (undeniably) and is in danger of ruining it (though I hope you are right, and I am wrong)

    Just build one or two roofs! It can be done.
    You seem out of the loop - this is an ICC tournament run by the ICC with the format set by the ICC with ICC pitches , ICC sponsors - including Indian cooking lager on sale in the grounds and ICC rules.

    Hosted in England but that’s it. ECB input is minimal.
    I have been reading the politics behind it. Seems there are some major rows about the broadcasting as well

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2019/jun/11/cricket-world-cup-televised-coverage

    Such a shame. A missed opportunity, in several ways.
    The ICC just want the cash - they don’t care about free to air coverage in the Uk. Sky dollars win every time.

    As bad as FIFA. Still it’s been a fun tournament if you have Sky Sports. Those with council tv are missing out.
    Missing out? The most boring sport in the world?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 12

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    India vs Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge tomorrow would be a cracker of a match, but unsurprisingly the forecast is not promising.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641170

    Result for England if rained off - cost India a point. They would pump the Lankans.

    Not a result for the World Cup however. Do a Twitter search on "World Cup" and "rain" and you will find many many cricket fans around the world, especially in Asia, incensed at its despoiling by the English climate. And they have a point.

    The home of cricket is now the subcontinent. That's where the money is. They rightly expect to see a proper World Cup, not a series of washouts. With thousands of fans disappointed, and TV schedules inoperative....

    England won't get to host another World Cup, unless we can either 1, prove we have a system of reserve days that works, or 2. build at least two grounds with roofs.
    Boo frikking hoo to fans in Asia.

    England are one of the big three in world cricket and will host the ODI World Cup In 2035 with the T20 World Cup before then. The sun is coming out Friday - teams have 9 games to qualify- plenty of time for cream to rise to the top.
    If we are one of the "big three" in a sport then we need to step up, and show we can host major tournaments without a glitch. This was potentially a great tournament, but the weather has damaged it (undeniably) and is in danger of ruining it (though I hope you are right, and I am wrong)

    Just build one or two roofs! It can be done.
    You seem out of the loop - this is an ICC tournament run by the ICC with the format set by the ICC with ICC pitches , ICC sponsors - including Indian cooking lager on sale in the grounds and ICC rules.

    Hosted in England but that’s it. ECB input is minimal.
    I have been reading the politics behind it. Seems there are some major rows about the broadcasting as well

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2019/jun/11/cricket-world-cup-televised-coverage

    Such a shame. A missed opportunity, in several ways.
    The ICC just want the cash - they don’t care about free to air coverage in the Uk. Sky dollars win every time.

    As bad as FIFA. Still it’s been a fun tournament if you have Sky Sports. Those with council tv are missing out.
    Missing out? The most boring sport in the world?
    Sunil - it’s poor fare compared with alighting at the newish Cambridge North station coming from Ely but for us cricketing types it’s the mutts nuts.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 3,567
    The media seem to love hysteria .

    They seem to assume that after today’s vote that MPs can’t block no deal . Leave it to Bercow he’ll find a way . There are still many avenues that can be used .

    Just wait for the furore when he allows an emergency debate to have a motion to suspend the standing orders. But he won’t care , the more the no deal death cult slag him off the more he’ll bend the rules .

    People seem to forget he can interpret the rules anyway he likes . The Speaker has enormous power , it’s just in recent years we’ve failed to notice.

    The no deal fantasists premature celebrations are going to look very silly .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,440
    Peston Mori Poll

    v Corbyn

    Leadsom +7
    Boris +6
    Javid +4
    Hunt +4

    Only Gove trails Corbyn
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,025
    AndyJS said:

    I'm starting to think its increasingly likely the great Betfair June/July resign debate could be moot. We could have PM Boris by this time next week.

    The membership won't accept another coronation.
    They probably will - if its of Boris...... Anyone else? Not so much.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 12
    Surely more than 5% of 313 MPs is 16 MPs, not 17, because 5% is 15.65%? And 10% would be 32 not 33...

    Voting tomorrow is between 10am and 12pm with a result expected at about 1pm.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,003
    AndyJS said:

    I'm starting to think its increasingly likely the great Betfair June/July resign debate could be moot. We could have PM Boris by this time next week.

    The membership won't accept another coronation.
    The membership don't have a choice if the runner up pulls out. If the final round is anything like 200, 60, 53 and then Boris is polling 70% with membership then the runner up will look silly continuing.

    Plus an argument can be made that ending the contest gives time for action before October.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Any predictions for who'll get knocked out of the race tomorrow?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    India vs Sri Lanka at Trent Bridge tomorrow would be a cracker of a match, but unsurprisingly the forecast is not promising.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641170

    Result for England if rained off - cost India a point. They would pump the Lankans.

    Not a result for the World Cup however. Do a Twitter search on "World Cup" and "rain" and you will find many many cricket fans around the world, especially in Asia, incensed at its despoiling by the English climate. And they have a point.

    The home of cricket is now the subcontinent. That's where the money is. They rightly expect to see a proper World Cup, not a series of washouts. With thousands of fans disappointed, and TV schedules inoperative....

    England won't get to host another World Cup, unless we can either 1, prove we have a system of reserve days that works, or 2. build at least two grounds with roofs.
    Boo frikking hoo to fans in Asia.

    England are one of the big three in world cricket and will host the ODI World Cup In 2035 with the T20 World Cup before then. The sun is coming out Friday - teams have 9 games to qualify- plenty of time for cream to rise to the top.
    If we are one of the "big three" in a sport then we need to step up, and show we can host major tournaments without a glitch. This was potentially a great tournament, but the weather has damaged it (undeniably) and is in danger of ruining it (though I hope you are right, and I am wrong)

    Just build one or two roofs! It can be done.
    You seem out of the loop - this is an ICC tournament run by the ICC with the format set by the ICC with ICC pitches , ICC sponsors - including Indian cooking lager on sale in the grounds and ICC rules.

    Hosted in England but that’s it. ECB input is minimal.
    I have been reading the politics behind it. Seems there are some major rows about the broadcasting as well

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2019/jun/11/cricket-world-cup-televised-coverage

    Such a shame. A missed opportunity, in several ways.
    The ICC just want the cash - they don’t care about free to air coverage in the Uk. Sky dollars win every time.

    As bad as FIFA. Still it’s been a fun tournament if you have Sky Sports. Those with council tv are missing out.
    Missing out? The most boring sport in the world?
    Obviously love of cricket is not an innate genetic marker ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    Peston Mori Poll

    v Corbyn

    Leadsom +7
    Boris +6
    Javid +4
    Hunt +4

    Only Gove trails Corbyn

    Gove is the only one bar Javid that needs time in office to improve his score. The others will decline in rating in office - what with being dull or being Boris.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,945
    AndyJS said:

    Any predictions for who'll get knocked out of the race tomorrow?

    Mark Who
    Rory The Tory
    McVey

  • IanB2 said:

    ”Robert Saunders, a historian of democracy, writes in his introduction to the series, British Conservatism has “broken with three of its most important traditions. It has stopped thinking; it has stopped ‘conserving’; and it has lost its suspicion of ideology.”
    Yep. Couldn't put it better.
    Isn't Brexit all about suspicion of EU institutional ideology?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    Any predictions for who'll get knocked out of the race tomorrow?

    Mark Brent
    McThingmy
    Leadsom

    Maybe Rory.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    AndyJS said:

    Surely more than 5% of 313 MPs is 16 MPs, not 17, because 5% is 15.65%? And 10% would be 32 not 33...

    Voting tomorrow is between 10am and 12pm with a result expected at about 1pm.

    I posed the same question some days ago. Was solemnly told it was 5% plus yourself.
    Make of that what you will.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,945
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Any predictions for who'll get knocked out of the race tomorrow?

    Mark Brent
    McThingmy
    Leadsom

    Maybe Rory.
    I think Leadsom will do a bit better than expected.

    It would looks quite bad for the Tories if both the ladies fell in the first round so "someone" will make sure Leadsom gets to Round Two IMO.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 12
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    Surely more than 5% of 313 MPs is 16 MPs, not 17, because 5% is 15.65%? And 10% would be 32 not 33...

    Voting tomorrow is between 10am and 12pm with a result expected at about 1pm.

    I posed the same question some days ago. Was solemnly told it was 5% plus yourself.
    Make of that what you will.
    Interesting. It's sod's law one of the candidates will get 16 votes tomorrow...

    The other thing I was wondering about was what happens if there's a tie for bottom place and they also get more than 5%. Do both get knocked out? As Sunil said earlier, it happened in the first round in 2001 and there wasn't a rule to deal with the situation so that had to re-run it. But it would make more sense for both candidates to be eliminated in those circumstances.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,116
    TGOHF said:

    Missing out? The most boring sport in the world?

    Sunil - it’s poor fare compared with alighting at the newish Cambridge North station coming from Ely but for us cricketing types it’s the mutts nuts.
    I've never visited Cambridge North, but I have visited Meridian Water :)

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Meridian_Water_railway_station
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    AndyJS said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    Surely more than 5% of 313 MPs is 16 MPs, not 17, because 5% is 15.65%? And 10% would be 32 not 33...

    Voting tomorrow is between 10am and 12pm with a result expected at about 1pm.

    I posed the same question some days ago. Was solemnly told it was 5% plus yourself.
    Make of that what you will.
    Interesting. It's sod's law one of the candidates will get 16 votes tomorrow...

    The other thing I was wondering about was what happens if there's a tie for bottom place and they also get more than 5%. Do both get knocked out? As Sunil said earlier, it happened in the first round in 2001 and there wasn't a rule to deal with the situation so that had to re-run it. But it would make more sense for both candidates to be eliminated in those circumstances.
    I honestly don't know. It really is as if the Tory Party haven't thought it through.
    However, with 10 candidates they would have to be really unlucky to have a joint 9th place getting 5%!
    So that will probably happen!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 12
    There would be a problem if the result of the final ballot of MPs was candidate A: 105 votes, candidate B: 104 votes, candidate C: 104 votes. There's no way of resolving this situation without the risk of candidate A being knocked out even though they ought to be guaranteed to go through.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,308
    AndyJS said:

    There would be a problem if the result of the final ballot of MPs was candidate A: 105 votes, candidate B: 104 votes, candidate C: 104 votes. There's no way of resolving this situation without the risk of candidate A being knocked out even though they ought to be guaranteed to go through.

    You could have a run-off between the two 104 vote runners-up, and lock up the PCP until one prevails.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    I rarely agree with TGOHF, but I agree with him about the Cricket World Cup. Been a great tournament so far. It has rained a few days, but that won’t stop it being quality.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,605
    edited June 12
    Jonathan said:

    The Boris playbook is simple

    Negotiate with Brussels
    Fail
    Go to the country in October for No Deal Brexit mandate
    .... Brexit party steps aside pledged Tories
    .... Dissolved Parliament cannot challenge him.
    Majority with Brexit Party
    We’re out
    Five years to make it work.


    Game,Set and Match

    I think you've got it right. Mrs Gove might have something up her sleeve but failing that it's time to join the exodus to the South of france. The Russians have gone and been replaced by Trump escapees Chinese and Chihuahuas.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Boris playbook is simple

    Negotiate with Brussels
    Fail
    Go to the country in October for No Deal Brexit mandate
    .... Brexit party steps aside pledged Tories
    .... Dissolved Parliament cannot challenge him.
    Majority with Brexit Party
    We’re out
    Five years to make it work.


    Game,Set and Match

    I think you've got it right. Mrs Gove might have something up her sleeve but failing that it's time to join the exodus to the South of france. The Russians have gone and been replaced by Trump escapees Chinese and Chihuahuas.
    Sadly, the vast vast majority have no escape route.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,945
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Boris playbook is simple

    Negotiate with Brussels
    Fail
    Go to the country in October for No Deal Brexit mandate
    .... Brexit party steps aside pledged Tories
    .... Dissolved Parliament cannot challenge him.
    Majority with Brexit Party
    We’re out
    Five years to make it work.


    Game,Set and Match

    I think you've got it right. Mrs Gove might have something up her sleeve but failing that it's time to join the exodus to the South of france. The Russians have gone and been replaced by Trump escapees Chinese and Chihuahuas.
    Would you share your mansion on the Cote d' Azur with me Roge? :D
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    AndyJS said:

    There would be a problem if the result of the final ballot of MPs was candidate A: 105 votes, candidate B: 104 votes, candidate C: 104 votes. There's no way of resolving this situation without the risk of candidate A being knocked out even though they ought to be guaranteed to go through.

    Course this would all be moot as they love FPTP. If only they'd apply it to themselves...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 12
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    There would be a problem if the result of the final ballot of MPs was candidate A: 105 votes, candidate B: 104 votes, candidate C: 104 votes. There's no way of resolving this situation without the risk of candidate A being knocked out even though they ought to be guaranteed to go through.

    Course this would all be moot as they love FPTP. If only they'd apply it to themselves...
    One ballot with a ranking and transfer system would be so much easier, although it would be considerably more difficult to count.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 12
    rpjs said:

    AndyJS said:

    There would be a problem if the result of the final ballot of MPs was candidate A: 105 votes, candidate B: 104 votes, candidate C: 104 votes. There's no way of resolving this situation without the risk of candidate A being knocked out even though they ought to be guaranteed to go through.

    You could have a run-off between the two 104 vote runners-up, and lock up the PCP until one prevails.
    Problem with letting everyone vote between candidates B and C is that most of candidate A's supporters would be tempted to vote for whichever of B and C they thought was the weakest in order to make it easier for A to win the members ballot. But on the other hand you can't exclude candidate A's supporters from the vote because you can't identify them since it's a secret ballot. A catch 22 situation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,605
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Boris playbook is simple

    Negotiate with Brussels
    Fail
    Go to the country in October for No Deal Brexit mandate
    .... Brexit party steps aside pledged Tories
    .... Dissolved Parliament cannot challenge him.
    Majority with Brexit Party
    We’re out
    Five years to make it work.


    Game,Set and Match

    I think you've got it right. Mrs Gove might have something up her sleeve but failing that it's time to join the exodus to the South of france. The Russians have gone and been replaced by Trump escapees Chinese and Chihuahuas.
    Would you share your mansion on the Cote d' Azur with me Roge? :D
    You're about to achieve your dream and you want to move somewhere full of foreiners! Have you been on Gin, Gin?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    David Lammy's complaint about "white saviours" bears fruit:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-48607113

    "Comic Relief is to send fewer celebrities abroad after criticism that stars like Stacey Dooley were going to Africa as "white saviours".
    The charity's co-founder, screenwriter Richard Curtis, told MPs TV appeals "will be heading in the direction of not using" celebrities abroad."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,116
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    David Lammy's complaint about "white saviours" bears fruit:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-48607113

    "Comic Relief is to send fewer celebrities abroad after criticism that stars like Stacey Dooley were going to Africa as "white saviours".
    The charity's co-founder, screenwriter Richard Curtis, told MPs TV appeals "will be heading in the direction of not using" celebrities abroad."

    Lammy is a racist.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,674
    New Fred
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,245
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd like to know whether Andrea Leadsom's odds are due to stupid punters or someone trying to artificially inflate her standing.

    Probably both.

    What % of the market do informed punters on pb.com represent?

    It's a £3.9m market. I've got 0.06% of the market. If we assume there are 200 very serious punters lurking or posting on here then we'd still only be at 12% of it.
    You have over £23K at stake in this market? Blimey. I can't work out if that is ambitious or reckless but I tend to the latter.
    3,900,000 x 0.06/100 = 2,340. Not 23,400.

    He's covering £234 at odds of 10/1. he places £2340 with Betfair Exchange. The other guy places £234 with Betfair Exchange.

    When Leadsom fails @Casino_Royale will get his £2340 plus the other guy's £234 (minus any fees). The Leadsome Whale (the hypothesised Leadsome megabacker) will lose £234 but gain publicity for Leadsome, which some believe is the point of the exercise.
    Spot on.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 12,047
    Quincel said:

    While I think that is a very harsh characterisation of it, I'd agree that the media are quite supportive of Warren. But I think that's simply because her policy focus and willingness to do long interviews fits with the sort of campaign and reporting they want to do anyway. I don't think it's cynical.
    Yes, her accessibility and press freindlyness means she's getting lots of press. It's not rocket science.

    Contrast with Biden's no access strategy and Sanders tetchy interviews.
This discussion has been closed.