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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead

There is a political divide in Britain. No, not that one. But one between those seeing Brexit as an end in itself and those for whom it is a means to an end. The former seems to comprise most of the Tory party. The candidates for leader seem to agree. “We must do Brexit” they cry. In some cases, one suspects it is said with all the sincerity of a certain type of English middle class woman on holiday in a favoured part of Europe mwah-mwah-ing the nice couple she’s met saying “Let’s do lunch!” while secretly hoping it never happens.

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Comments

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Great article, thank you for your thoughts and insight.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Conservatives are walking down Cormac McCarthy’s Road. They’ve long since lost sight of any point in the endeavour and are just trudging down under dead grey skies to God knows where.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2019
    This is all correct, added to which there's the *competence* angle for the government in charge of doing it. There will be a million different things going wrong, many of which could have been mitigated by government planning, but many of which were just going to go wrong anyway. But the people who want this to happen expect everything to go pretty well, and the Corbyn people and the Farage people are going to be united in blaming everything that goes wrong on the EPIC INCOMPETENCE of this SHAMBOLIC GOVERNMENT. It doesn't help that the likely PM looks kind-of shambolic.

    All of which made me think that no government would do it, but then I watched the Ken Burns documentary on Vietnam, where right from the start, all the people responsible can see that they have no workable plan and it's all likely to go horribly wrong, yet still get sucked into it by the short-term political logic...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    Fourth like the Tories
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    Cycle’s leads are so text heavy.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    For some tory MPs I think Brexit is very much a means to an end It's a rare chance to get rid of environmental protections, workers" rights, get rid of the restrictions on greedy rich psychopaths" opportunities to make a fast buck, no matter the consequences for everyone else. They don't care about the problems of no deal Brexit On the contrary the more destructive the better, knowing that foreigners and traitors will continue to get the blame.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    The only thing wrong with this excellent piece is the suggestion that the Euro elections indicated popular support for No Deal. They clearly didn’t. And that’s going to be another problem for the Tories. Inflicting a No Deal Brexit on a country that doesn’t want one, even before the bad stuff actually starts happening, is the route to electoral disaster. But the Tories are in full self-destruct mode, so that’s where they’re heading once Corbyn is no longer Labour leader.

    It does seem as if the total and final humiliation of the Conservative party - and Boris Johnson - will be part of the Brexit they have inflicted on us. That is the one silver lining in all of this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    IanB2 said:

    Cycle’s leads are so text heavy.

    Writing ‘Brexit is shit’ would have been more succinct, but perhaps a little easier to rebut.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    As a business owner and former strong Tory supporter I am no longer planning to vote for them as a matter of right. Boris with his f**k business is not the type of guy I can vote for. The tories forget that the brexit 25% are not all ex Tory and not the whole of the Tory party. At the euros I dnv. I am concerned that the tories are dead whatever happens now.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Perhaps these questions are being asked in the Conservative Party's private hustings. Perhaps details are being demanded of candidates who will prepare for no deal in order to negotiate a better deal: what, exactly, is a better deal? Better for whom? And, as Cyclefree's header asks, the day after we have left, November the first, St Nigel's Day, St Boris's Day, perhaps even St Andrea's Day: then what?

    There is little sign of recognition that Brexit is the start of a process, not an end in itself; the beginning of negotiations rather than the end. And even those who do acknowledge that point give little sign of their intended destination. They do not seem to have asked themselves why, for instance, Nigel Farage wants to be on the negotiation team if there is nothing to negotiate.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited June 2019

    As a business owner and former strong Tory supporter I am no longer planning to vote for them as a matter of right. Boris with his f**k business is not the type of guy I can vote for. The tories forget that the brexit 25% are not all ex Tory and not the whole of the Tory party. At the euros I dnv. I am concerned that the tories are dead whatever happens now.

    It is almost getting to the point where (assuming Boris wins) expectations are so low that they will be exceeded providing an illusion of success.

    Brexit is easy to understand and difficult to resolve.

    Revocation / status quo. Leaves all the issues that drove us to have a referendum and vote to leave in place. It would be an unattractive and fractious result.

    No deal is fraught with down sides

    Fully in Europe single currency etc is by far the most coherent remain option, and possibly workable long term compared to revocation.

    A deal is great, but we can't agree on one.

    Our sensible options appear to be reduced to fully in or no deal to get fully out, but no deal has to be accompanied by a series of deals to make it work, which may well end up similar to the deal on offer now, but the presentation and packaging is different.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited June 2019

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Today sees the first ballot from 10 till noon; results expected around 1pm.

    Squeaky bum time for the Leadsom layers, and probably everyone else. I've backed someone or other to receive fewest votes, but can't for the life of me remember who.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    This is all correct, added to which there's the *competence* angle for the government in charge of doing it. There will be a million different things going wrong, many of which could have been mitigated by government planning, but many of which were just going to go wrong anyway. But the people who want this to happen expect everything to go pretty well, and the Corbyn people and the Farage people are going to be united in blaming everything that goes wrong on the EPIC INCOMPETENCE of this SHAMBOLIC GOVERNMENT. It doesn't help that the likely PM looks kind-of shambolic.

    All of which made me think that no government would do it, but then I watched the Ken Burns documentary on Vietnam, where right from the start, all the people responsible can see that they have no workable plan and it's all likely to go horribly wrong, yet still get sucked into it by the short-term political logic...

    Ken Burn’s Vietnam is epic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

    There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    14 or 15/1 if your probability assessments are correct. The sums are very easy if you multiply them in reverse order, so 50% or half of 20% = 10% and a tenth of 65% is 6.5% which is somewhere between 14 and 15/1 against.

    The most doubtful part is Nigel Farage standing against the PM, and costing the seat. Boris's majority last time was only 5,000 so he'd be vulnerable but we cannot rely on Farage to do the right thing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    IIRC it happened to Gladstone

    I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong
  • Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

    I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

    First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Charles said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    IIRC it happened to Gladstone

    I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong
    He loses the by-election. Equally who is in charge in the mean time...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    Charles said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    IIRC it happened to Gladstone

    I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong
    Not while he was leader. He lost his seat in 1865, but Palmerston was still alive.

    I think that would have cost him the Chancellorship had he not found another seat during the same election.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,721
    ydoethur said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

    There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.
    Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    IIRC it happened to Gladstone

    I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong
    He loses the by-election. Equally who is in charge in the mean time...
    He’d be in charge in the meantime... but I don’t think he’d get a second chance if he lost the by election
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    While the past is no definitive guide to the future all the evidence suggests Farage actively repels more then he attracts. The Farage frotters invariably forget that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    IIRC it happened to Gladstone

    I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong
    Not while he was leader. He lost his seat in 1865, but Palmerston was still alive.

    I think that would have cost him the Chancellorship had he not found another seat during the same election.
    We should ask @JackW

    He was a young whippersnapper back then so was probably involved
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,721
    On topic, as asked, 'What about after Brexit' is a good question, which doesn't appear to have been answered, largely I suspect because the fight has been between Deal, No Deal and Remain. No-one, so far as I am aware, has set out the practicalities of the immediate future, let alone that further down the track.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The constitutional position is clear. The Queen may appoint, on advice, anyone who enjoys the confidence of the House of Commons be they a member of the HoC or not.

    This last happened in October 1963 when The Earl of Home became Prime Minister, then disclaimed his peerages and as Sir Alec Douglas Home, outwith either house of parliament was Prime Minister until he won the Kinross and West Perthshire by-election in November.
  • matt said:

    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    While the past is no definitive guide to the future all the evidence suggests Farage actively repels more then he attracts. The Farage frotters invariably forget that.
    He doesn't have to win. All he has to do is take enough share so Labour wins, helped by a bit of tactical voting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    ydoethur said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

    There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.
    Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.
    That 16 day period is what I was referring to, because it's the one that seems relevant here.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.

    The leverage Farage now has over Boris personally is the most terrifying thing since the pee tape.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.
    I can see the first happening easy as easy as well - but remember, that does also assume the Labour vote doesn't leak to the Yellows and Greens. Given their current travails that may be a bold assumption.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    IIRC it happened to Gladstone

    I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong
    Not while he was leader. He lost his seat in 1865, but Palmerston was still alive.

    I think that would have cost him the Chancellorship had he not found another seat during the same election.
    We should ask @JackW

    He was a young whippersnapper back then so was probably involved
    Ah .... the heady days of youth .... :innocent:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.
    Decapitation doesn’t work. If Boris is PM his majority will firm up and increase.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    matt said:

    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    While the past is no definitive guide to the future all the evidence suggests Farage actively repels more then he attracts. The Farage frotters invariably forget that.
    Agreed. Farage running against him more or less guarantees his secure re-election.
  • ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.
    I can see the first happening easy as easy as well - but remember, that does also assume the Labour vote doesn't leak to the Yellows and Greens. Given their current travails that may be a bold assumption.
    When it comes to getting rid of Boris, the temptation will be too much - they will stick with Labour
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    JackW said:

    The constitutional position is clear. The Queen may appoint, on advice, anyone who enjoys the confidence of the House of Commons be they a member of the HoC or not.

    This last happened in October 1963 when The Earl of Home became Prime Minister, then disclaimed his peerages and as Sir Alec Douglas Home, outwith either house of parliament was Prime Minister until he won the Kinross and West Perthshire by-election in November.

    Which actually includes virtually anyone.

    I think she should call for SeanT.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,721
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

    There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.
    Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.
    That 16 day period is what I was referring to, because it's the one that seems relevant here.
    Which is, of course, analogous to the period of a GE, when the PM, like all the rest isn't an MP!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    Corrected it for you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    matt said:

    JackW said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
    While the past is no definitive guide to the future all the evidence suggests Farage actively repels more then he attracts. The Farage frotters invariably forget that.
    Nevertheless he attracts rabid Tories more than he repels, which is the point.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Yes I think the hierarchy in Uxbridge would be PM Boris > Farage > PM Corbyn.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

    There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.
    Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.
    That 16 day period is what I was referring to, because it's the one that seems relevant here.
    Which is, of course, analogous to the period of a GE, when the PM, like all the rest isn't an MP!
    Home disclaimed his peerages on 24th October. He won the by-election on the 7th November but was unable to take his seat as the HoC was in recess until 12th November. So 20 days in total as Prime Minister whist not being a member of either house of parliament.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    This is a great piece, hard to disagree with any part, thanks for writing it.
    One thing I don't understand - and I mean this literally not rhetorically - is how anybody can see Johnson as in any way qualified to be Prime Minister of this country. Genuinely, it completely baffles me.
    And I have talked to him, briefly, so I can confirm myself that he does not exude some special magic in the flesh that is absent on television.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    edited June 2019

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

    There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.
    Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.
    That 16 day period is what I was referring to, because it's the one that seems relevant here.
    Which is, of course, analogous to the period of a GE, when the PM, like all the rest isn't an MP!
    Well, until the nineteenth century Parliament usually only sat for two months a year. So it was perhaps not vital for a PM to be a member of Parliament and it wasn't uncommon for a new PM to go months before arriving at the despatch box. Indeed, in 1827-28 one PM never met Parliament at all, because he was appointed while it was in recess and sacked before it reconvened.

    I suppose the general election argument on its own shows a Minister doesn't have to be an MP. Patrick Gordon Walker was Foreign Secretary for four months while outside Parliament in 1964-65. It is a question really of whether the Commons would agree to a Queen's Speech effectively written by somebody they couldn't grill over it. Instinct says it could work, but only for a very short time - two months at most, perhaps.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    Many bastards follow Johnson.

    And it's possible he has a number of children outside wedlock as well.

    Have a good morning.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Boris replies ....

    "The people of our nation are all my children. If Andrea may be said to be the "Mother of the Nation" then I ... Boris will be "Father of the Nation" .....

    The Daily Mirror Headline :

    "Boris - Britain's Dead Beat Dad"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    He probably wouldn't know the answer to that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    TOPPING said:

    Yes I think the hierarchy in Uxbridge would be PM Boris > Farage > PM Corbyn.


    I think Boris would hold Uxbridge comfortably, as leader.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

    I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

    First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

    Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

    Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
    Harper 1.7
    McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
    Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
    Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
    Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

    A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Timetable for the new leader.

    Kiss hands.
    Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
    Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
    Win election.
    But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
    Peerage.

    Interesting scenario, quite possible.

    Who takes over as leader then ?

    Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

    Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

    I reckon roughly the following

    Boris to win @ 65%
    Lose VONC @ 50%
    Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

    I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
    The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

    There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.
    Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.
    That 16 day period is what I was referring to, because it's the one that seems relevant here.
    Which is, of course, analogous to the period of a GE, when the PM, like all the rest isn't an MP!
    Well, until the nineteenth century Parliament usually only sat for two months a year. So it was perhaps not vital for a PM to be a member of Parliament and it wasn't uncommon for a new PM to go months before arriving at the despatch box. Indeed, in 1827-28 one PM never met Parliament at all, because he was appointed while it was in recess and sacked before it reconvened...
    I wish you’d kept that quiet. It might give people ideas...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

    I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

    First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

    Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

    Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
    Harper 1.7
    McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
    Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
    Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
    Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

    A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.
    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    IanB2 said:

    Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

    I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

    First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

    Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

    Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
    Harper 1.7
    McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
    Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
    Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
    Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

    A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.
    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.
    I could see Leadsom getting between 15-25 votes if she’s very lucky.

    I can’t see her topping 30.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    What time do PT and orange v get up? it’s quite pleasant at the moment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466

    Hancock gives pushing the don't know/don't cares to 50% his best shot
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IanB2 said:

    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

    You may be correct but Leadsom needs to triple her declared support to stay in the race. I suspect those candidates who only marginally pass the threshold will drop out.

    Indeed as I indicated yesterday there is a prospect that Boris and Hunt hoover up around 200 votes and the others pull out and we get to the final two by close of play today.
  • IanB2 said:

    Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

    I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

    First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

    Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

    Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
    Harper 1.7
    McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
    Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
    Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
    Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

    A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.
    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.
    If she does, it may be an indication that MPs are concerned re further revelations about Boris and so need a parachute candidate.

    I got Hancock at 20/1 to go out first on Ladbrokes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    IanB2 said:

    Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

    I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

    First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

    Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

    Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
    Harper 1.7
    McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
    Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
    Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
    Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

    A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.
    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.
    I could see Leadsom getting between 15-25 votes if she’s very lucky.

    I can’t see her topping 30.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    IanB2 said:

    Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

    I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

    First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

    Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

    Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
    Harper 1.7
    McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
    Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
    Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
    Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

    A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.
    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.
    If she does, it may be an indication that MPs are concerned re further revelations about Boris and so need a parachute candidate.

    I got Hancock at 20/1 to go out first on Ladbrokes.
    Haaaancock’s half-hour.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    This is a great piece, hard to disagree with any part, thanks for writing it.
    One thing I don't understand - and I mean this literally not rhetorically - is how anybody can see Johnson as in any way qualified to be Prime Minister of this country. Genuinely, it completely baffles me.

    "How can this person be foerign secretary?" was what most people outside the UK were thinking as was given that post. His actions in that role showed that this scepticism was well founded.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    edited June 2019

    Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.

    Yet Uxbridge, like most of Outer London, is changing fast. Its population is increasing by over 1.5% (+5,000 people) per year. Every year 1% of the population total switches from white to BAME: the White British population will shortly drop to 40% having been 43% in 2017, 48% in 2011 and 73% in 2001.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

    It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.
  • JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

    You may be correct but Leadsom needs to triple her declared support to stay in the race. I suspect those candidates who only marginally pass the threshold will drop out.

    Indeed as I indicated yesterday there is a prospect that Boris and Hunt hoover up around 200 votes and the others pull out and we get to the final two by close of play today.
    Not sure they will. Let's say you are one of Raab, Leadsom and McVey. You know that the membership will almost certainly go for a Leaver in the final two. If you think there is a chance Boris may be forced out of the race because of more revelations to come (Janice Turner's quotation is an open invite to journalists to ask him), why not stay in?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.

    I'd say much the same about Chingford, as well. The Tory vote is only just under 50%, and the Conservatives did very well in local elections there (as they did in Uxbridge).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    So much for our future as a Singapore clone...
    https://www.politico.eu/article/outgoing-uk-diplomat-slams-chaotic-politics-and-brexit-shambles/
    The outgoing British high commissioner to Singapore has warned that the Asian city-state's leaders are "baffled by the U.K.'s chaotic politics" and that Brexit is doing lasting damage to the U.K.'s reputation.

    In a devastating assessment of the damage Brexit is doing to the U.K.'s global reputation, Scott Wightman, one of the country's most senior diplomats, said major investors told him the balance of future investment in Europe "will inevitably be weighted more towards Germany and France," with post-referendum political risk now their "principle consideration."...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Why do I still want Brexit?

    Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

    None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

    For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    IanB2 said:

    Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.

    Yet Uxbridge, like most of Outer London, is changing fast. Its population is increasing by over 1.5% (+5,000 people) per year. Every year 1% of the population total switches from white to BAME: the White British population will shortly drop to 40% having been 43% in 2017, 48% in 2011 and 73% in 2001.
    It depends on the precise circumstances in which an election took place. In a post-Brexit meltdown, he'd be gone. In a VONC pre-Brexit GE, not sure. There are factors cutting both ways, as other posters have indicated. All I'd say is there's a definite possibilty.
  • JackW said:

    Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

    It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

    Said it below but in answer Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside, Hancock to bomb.

    Agree Raab might be interesting - both Steve Hawkes and Dan Hodges suggested his hopes are fading fast.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Personally I'm very much in favour of betrayal so long as I'm the one doing it.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    JackW said:

    Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

    It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

    Said it below but in answer Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside, Hancock to bomb.

    Agree Raab might be interesting - both Steve Hawkes and Dan Hodges suggested his hopes are fading fast.
    "...Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside."

    Jack always surprises on the upside.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    DavidL said:

    Why do I still want Brexit?

    Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

    None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

    For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

    Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    nichomar said:

    What time do PT and orange v get up? it’s quite pleasant at the moment.

    They are currently on the range zeroing their weapons.
  • JackW said:

    Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

    It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

    Said it below but in answer Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside, Hancock to bomb.

    Agree Raab might be interesting - both Steve Hawkes and Dan Hodges suggested his hopes are fading fast.
    "...Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside."

    Jack always surprises on the upside.
    Boom boom!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    Did Trump just ensure that the Democrats will attempt to impeach him ?

    ‘I think I’d take it’: Trump says he might not report foreign help to FBI in 2020
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/12/trump-fbi-foreign-information-1362788


    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/trump-says-hed-accept-foreign-electoral-aid/591577/
    I worried some weeks later on this site about the political and institutional risks of proceeding down that path. But Trump himself gets a vote; Trump himself forces the hands even of those who might wish to restrain the hand. He is such an institution wrecker—his instincts are so lawless—that he may simply refuse to allow Congress not to impeach him.

    Confessing a willingness to collaborate with foreign spies against his domestic political opponents is a hand-forcing move. The risks of proceeding are still there. But the risks of not proceeding? Trump just forced us all to confront them in the most aggressively public possible way....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2019
    JackW said:

    Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

    It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

    Boris, perhaps, especially if he lends votes to, say, Leadsom to keep her in against Raab for the headbanger vote.

    Rory could easily bomb if it turns out none of the people he canvassed at Kew Gardens or the Lake District or that coffee shop in Barking are actually Conservative MPs who can vote in this election.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

    You may be correct but Leadsom needs to triple her declared support to stay in the race. I suspect those candidates who only marginally pass the threshold will drop out.

    Indeed as I indicated yesterday there is a prospect that Boris and Hunt hoover up around 200 votes and the others pull out and we get to the final two by close of play today.
    Not sure they will. Let's say you are one of Raab, Leadsom and McVey. You know that the membership will almost certainly go for a Leaver in the final two. If you think there is a chance Boris may be forced out of the race because of more revelations to come (Janice Turner's quotation is an open invite to journalists to ask him), why not stay in?
    Perhaps a fair point for Raab who will cross the threshold but McVey and Leadsom might not even make the cut. Neither do I discount further damaging revelations about Boris but he seems presently to enjoy a Trumpian ability to shrug off criticism that would sink other candidates. Further it seems to enhance his status with the faithful. It's :

    "We Want Boris And We Don't Care"
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.

    The rumour is that Rory and Leadsom have been lent votes to get them through. Personally I don't think campaigns should do that. If a candidate has so little support from MPs then they shouldn't be in the process, that's the point of it.

    Having said which, I do hope he makes it through. I think he'd be a very useful addition to the Channel 4 debate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    JackW said:

    Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

    It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

    Boris, perhaps, especially if he lends votes to, say, Leadsom to keep her in against Raab for the headbanger vote.

    Rory could easily bomb if it turns out none of the people he canvassed at Kew Gardens or the Lake District or that coffee shop in Barking are actually Conservative MPs who can vote in this election.
    Rory has even managed to scrape second place in the ConHome self-selecting member survey, which is something.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Will be a much less interesting contest if Rory doesn't get through.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    Quincel said:

    Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.

    The rumour is that Rory and Leadsom have been lent votes to get them through. Personally I don't think campaigns should do that. If a candidate has so little support from MPs then they shouldn't be in the process, that's the point of it.

    Having said which, I do hope he makes it through. I think he'd be a very useful addition to the Channel 4 debate.
    Even the Tory Party will be somewhat sheepish about a field consisting entirely of men. There'll be some who want to see Leadsom through to the TV debates.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

    You may be correct but Leadsom needs to triple her declared support to stay in the race. I suspect those candidates who only marginally pass the threshold will drop out.

    Indeed as I indicated yesterday there is a prospect that Boris and Hunt hoover up around 200 votes and the others pull out and we get to the final two by close of play today.
    Not sure they will. Let's say you are one of Raab, Leadsom and McVey. You know that the membership will almost certainly go for a Leaver in the final two. If you think there is a chance Boris may be forced out of the race because of more revelations to come (Janice Turner's quotation is an open invite to journalists to ask him), why not stay in?
    The entire rationale for backing Leadsom is that Gove and Boris might implode. And since all candidates will have watched this happen in 2016, there might be reluctance to withdraw too early. There might be some behind-the-scenes deal-making.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

    It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

    Said it below but in answer Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside, Hancock to bomb.

    Agree Raab might be interesting - both Steve Hawkes and Dan Hodges suggested his hopes are fading fast.
    "...Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside."

    Jack always surprises on the upside.
    I thank my loyal Deputy TOTY .... the cheque is in the post .... :wink:
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466

    I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.

    Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.

    Someone was good enough to link to his launch yesterday tea time and I watched it last night. That is so much how I want my politics. Intelligent, serious, respectful, balanced, consensus seeking and principled. So much sound bite politics aren't. So far from the lunacies of Momentum or the ERG. It is frustrating that it probably ends today.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Why do I still want Brexit?

    Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

    None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

    For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

    Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
    It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466

    I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.

    Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.
    They do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Why do I still want Brexit?

    Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

    None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

    For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

    Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
    I wanted to Brexit too for reasons such as DavidL gives , but while it may be weakness on my part I've just given up. The cost is going to be too high and events to date have shown it will be a chaotic and incompetent mess. Yes definitely in part due to obstructive behaviour but the task is to overcome that. And so with any reasonable leaves abandoned and despite the costs of not honouring the first vote, the balance of the costs has shifted for me.

    That people are now demanding the most extreme exits and many support any action so long as they get that, like prorogation, means while I would be a bitter and unhappy remainer, and wanted us to be out by now, things have moved on and we had our chance.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    DavidL said:

    Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.

    Someone was good enough to link to his launch yesterday tea time and I watched it last night. That is so much how I want my politics. Intelligent, serious, respectful, balanced, consensus seeking and principled. So much sound bite politics aren't. So far from the lunacies of Momentum or the ERG. It is frustrating that it probably ends today.
    There isn't much of a market for that kind of politics in the Conservative Party. I'm not sure there's much more in Labour either.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466

    I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.

    Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.
    Yes, they hate him. He wouldn't win today. A lot has changed.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    That cartoon was by Sir David Low.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

    It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

    That's my pick for suprise. Most likely because it aligns closest with my nightmare scenario of Leadsom suprising on the upisde.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Why do I still want Brexit?

    Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

    None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

    For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

    Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
    It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.
    Not so much the dog has fleas, as it has fundamental health issues because of the grim determination of the breeders to pursue a purity of shape. And now the poor thing can barely breathe....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466

    I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.

    Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.
    Londoners remember his posturing as a Remain Mayor.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    edited June 2019

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
    It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.
    The problem is that we have been taking the damn dog back and forward to the vet for decades and he always seems to end up with more fleas than before. Sometimes you have to accept that that is the way it is. If the majority on the continent want to give up that level of control (and, to be honest, if I was Greek or Italian or from some dodgy democracy in eastern Europe which was under threat from some demagogue I would almost certainly feel differently) then they will. We can't stop them and ultimately have to wish them well but leave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Why do I still want Brexit?

    Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

    None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

    For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

    Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
    It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.
    Like many I gave up on meaningful reform in the eu. It's own extremists let the mask slip and speak contempfully of those opposed to the project, so smug in superiority, and that shows how their occasional comments acknowledging concerns are crap. It's why some proponents on here focus more on the crushing inevitability of it all. Because the nice dream of the EU does not match the reality.

    Sadly it's the better option given the failure of the last three years.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Why do I still want Brexit?

    Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

    None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

    For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

    Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
    It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.
    Brexit is more like shooting yourself in the face than shooting the dog.
This discussion has been closed.