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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So which ones will survive the first vote?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So which ones will survive the first vote?

CON MP voting in the first round of the leadership contest ended at noon and the result is expected by 1pm. Contenders need to have secured 17 or more votes to get into the next round.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    Who's first out ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Nigelb said:

    Who's first out ?

    You ....

    Congratulations. :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    JackW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Who's first out ?

    You ....

    Congratulations. :smile:
    And on zero votes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Any odds on the number of votes cast for Boris in a secret ballot being fewer than the number of MPs who said publicly they voted for him?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Nigelb said:

    JackW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Who's first out ?

    You ....

    Congratulations. :smile:
    And on zero votes.
    You met the threshold .... :smile:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    “How can I live among this gentle obsolescent breed of Tories and not weep? Unicorns, almost, for they are fading into two legends in which their Remainery and Leavery are celebrated. Each, Europhile and Brexiteer, will be an immortal."
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    tlg86 said:

    Given Theresa May has virtually bankrupted the party I'd not be surprised... ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    tlg86 said:
    I know Dave and DD had to pay in 2005 but it wasn’t that much.

    This would fit in with the speculation that CCHQ doesn’t have a pot to piss in.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2019
    tlg86 said:
    Can’t be surely? That’s a year’s gross salary for the PM.

    (Although the two front runners are probably the only two who could actually write a cheque for that much).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,269
    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Esther to come last, eh? Perfect!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    tlg86 said:
    This is going to be a Boris coronation isn't it....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    I’m very grateful to HYUFD that he gave me 50/1 on Hunt beating Boris when Hunt was circa 12/1 to win the race.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    JackW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Who's first out ?

    You ....

    Congratulations. :smile:
    And on zero votes.
    You’ve 2 now (including mine. Honest )
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,269
    edited June 2019

    tlg86 said:
    I know Dave and DD had to pay in 2005 but it wasn’t that much.

    This would fit in with the speculation that CCHQ doesn’t have a pot to piss in.
    Surely fairer to ask all candadates to contribute before the first round... Let's be honest, most are just entering to get a job in Boris's cabinet.

    Edit: Still, fairness and the Tories - not natural bedfellows.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2019
    Potentially interesting thread (though clearly one unusual phrase isn't plagiarism):

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1139129888840044545
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.
    +1 - he's an awful candidate and I'm underwater but I still can't see him winning - something is going to happen that blows his campaign up...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    My guess:

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 50
    Michael Gove 42
    Sajid Javid 32
    Dominic Raab 27
    Rory Stewart 18
    Andrea Leadsom 14
    Matthew Hancock 11
    Mark Harper 8
    Esther McVey 8

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    tlg86 said:
    If Rory gets through (highly unlikely, I know), he should go walkabout instead.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    An insufficiently examined question: why did Johnson pull out (fnaar) in 2016? If the Gove cocaine revelation had been about Johnson that would be an entirely satisfactory explanation. Is Gove playing a long game with an anti Johnson story, or does he have an anti Johnson story which now looks worthless because it would now look like a tit for tat after Johnson got his retaliation in first?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    tlg86 said:
    You can insure yourself against the cost of getting to the final round by dumping a load of money on yourself on betfair at 9/1
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,269

    This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!

    ... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    I’m very grateful to HYUFD that he gave me 50/1 on Hunt beating Boris when Hunt was circa 12/1 to win the race.
    The first and last it seems Al
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.
    Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten. Otherwise he will linger around like “DSR” Fox
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    FPT
    Bit of a silly analogy though as the reason Raab isn't going to do any good isn't because Con is turning away from the Right (far from it) but because Boris is saying everything Raab is saying but he also has charisma and is a proven election winner.

    If Boris wasn't standing Raab would would win this IMO.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Tracey Crouch wins!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,269
    edited June 2019
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:
    This is going to be a Boris coronation isn't it....

    Good point :- say you are 2nd on <100 votes to Boris's 200+, what's the point of wasting £150k, you might just as well concede at that point.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    tlg86 said:
    I don't get how you enforce this. What if they say no? You can't exactly withdraw the whip or threaten deselection!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    tlg86 said:
    A pretty nifty way of getting second place to withdraw, so no members vote...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    If Leadsom doesn't make it through this round there's probably going to be a lot of money sloshing around the exchange as everyone can finally cash in their lays.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:
    This is going to be a Boris coronation isn't it....

    Good point :- say you are 2nd on <100 votes to Boris's 200+, what's the point of wasting £150k, you might just as well concede at that point.</p>
    It will coming from your donors not your pocket and would be a contribution to party funds
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!

    ... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.
    I have long since thought that that is Boris plan. Get the EU to make the odd change to the PD, submit it to the HOC, and it passes fairly easily and he wins

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited June 2019

    Potentially interesting thread (though clearly one unusual phrase isn't plagiarism):

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1139129888840044545

    Worth clarifying that the accusation of plagiarism is against Boris, from whom Marina Hyde is quoting.

    At what stage does a phrase like that become an idiom as opposed to a quote you should cite?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.
    Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...
    No need to go all Jo Brand on him...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:
    This is going to be a Boris coronation isn't it....

    Good point :- say you are 2nd on <100 votes to Boris's 200+, what's the point of wasting £150k, you might just as well concede at that point.</p>
    So is a June exit date for Theresa May back on if the millionaire Jeremy Hunt can't find £150,000 down the back of the sofa?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.

    Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.

    Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.

    Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.

    Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!

    Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    Picking up pennies from in front of a steamroller

    Works really well

    Until it doesn’t
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.
    I’ll be second. I thought he was soiled goods, and with good reason.

    The only thing I will say in my defence is that when the facts changed I quickly changed my betting position.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,745

    Potentially interesting thread (though clearly one unusual phrase isn't plagiarism):

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1139129888840044545

    Maybe not plagiarism in the legalistic sense, but certainly "wrongful appropriation", conscious or unconscious. I'd expect nothing less from Boris.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:
    If Rory gets through (highly unlikely, I know), he should go walkabout instead.
    I know it's unlikely.

    But wouldn't it shake things up if he did!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    I drunkenly backed Lidington in the wrong market, and had £36 at 1000 on Michael Portillo, so didn’t exactly cover myself in glory either to be fair. Boris is the best result (-£23!)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:
    A pretty nifty way of getting second place to withdraw, so no members vote...
    Crowdfund it? I would sponsor Rory 50 quid, so he would only need another 2999 like me.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.
    Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...
    No need to go all Jo Brand on him...
    He’d probably enjoy it anyway
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.

    Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.

    Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.

    Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.

    Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!

    Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
    I could be wrong, but I'd have thought that the betting markets would be a lot more efficient now than a decade or two ago, so not sure how relevant most of those examples are.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    Can’t be surely? That’s a year’s gross salary for the PM.

    (Although the two front runners are probably the only two who could actually write a cheque for that much).
    If this rule has only just been announced, then his really makes it feel like a stitch-up.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    FPT

    If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.

    The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.

    Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.

    Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.

    Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.

    Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!

    Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
    I could be wrong, but I'd have thought that the betting markets would be a lot more efficient now than a decade or two ago, so not sure how relevant most of those examples are.
    And what odds were the favourites on for those examples? I think the problem with the strategy in this case is that they were often on <30%
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562

    Potentially interesting thread (though clearly one unusual phrase isn't plagiarism):

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1139129888840044545

    Maybe not plagiarism in the legalistic sense, but certainly "wrongful appropriation", conscious or unconscious. I'd expect nothing less from Boris.
    Scorcese didn't acknowledge Mean Streets...

    It ought to be a criminal offence to shoehorn someone else's good writing into your execrable bilge, though.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.

    Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.

    Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.

    Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.

    Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!

    Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
    How could anyone have laid the favourite pre 2001 (assuming Betfair had a market on it that year, which I doubt actually)?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think Boris was amusing on Have I Got News For You, but apart from that I don't know what people see in him.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:
    This is going to be a Boris coronation isn't it....

    Good point :- say you are 2nd on <100 votes to Boris's 200+, what's the point of wasting £150k, you might just as well concede at that point.</p>
    Even if you're 200+ up against 100 for Johnson, you're still losing the member vote.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    tlg86 said:
    You can insure yourself against the cost of getting to the final round by dumping a load of money on yourself on betfair at 9/1
    You can also bet large sums on a candidate to keep their odds artificially short, as the Leadsome Whale is demonstrating... :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    I'm less confident about the numbers of votes for those at the bottom of the pile than those at the top. Leadsom could get 17.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.
    Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...
    No need to go all Jo Brand on him...
    He’d probably enjoy it anyway
    But wasn't he a grammar school kid ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    Picking up pennies from in front of a steamroller

    Works really well

    Until it doesn’t
    Amen
  • isamisam Posts: 40,723
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.

    The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.

    I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefree
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    GIN1138 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Given Theresa May has virtually bankrupted the party I'd not be surprised... ;)
    .. and the country with her zero-carbon-by-2050 idea.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    AndyJS said:

    I think Boris was amusing on Have I Got News For You, but apart from that I don't know what people see in him.

    He's a clown, and can wield a good turn of phrase. I quite like him.

    However those positive qualities are also rather shallow, and he has a host of other characteristics that make him wholly unsuitable for high office.
  • Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    Can’t be surely? That’s a year’s gross salary for the PM.

    (Although the two front runners are probably the only two who could actually write a cheque for that much).
    If this rule has only just been announced, then his really makes it feel like a stitch-up.
    I don't really see the problem with this. Campaigns for each of the candidates are quite well funded by supporters and pay for stuff like direct mail. Organising hustings etc is a substantial expense for CCHQ and the hustings are put on to help candidates convey their messages. Nobody making the top two would have any problem at all stumping up.

    It does say something about the state of CCHQ funding, however.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    It is a shame Sunderland has only Labour MPs. It would not take them an hour to count a mere 300 votes.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.

    The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.

    I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefree
    Perhaps that's because Brexit is actually a bad thing, and no-one can really find an opposing argument? ;)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!

    ... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.
    I have long since thought that that is Boris plan. Get the EU to make the odd change to the PD, submit it to the HOC, and it passes fairly easily and he wins

    The only fly in the ointment will be Nigel. If he can successfully label Boris's 'renegotiation' as a hollow sell-out then that should be the Tories finished. However, the media probably won't give Nigel much of a platform to make his complaints, such will be their euphoria over Boris. In that situation Boris should be safe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.

    The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.

    Good point about @corporeal and Smithson Jnr.
    I didn't intentionally omit them in my earlier comment - just didn't scroll back far enough to turn up their articles.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.

    Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.

    Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.

    Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.

    Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!

    Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
    I could be wrong, but I'd have thought that the betting markets would be a lot more efficient now than a decade or two ago, so not sure how relevant most of those examples are.
    I think you have to factor in a few things.

    There were fewer Tory leadership contests, so say between 2005 and 2016 there were quite a few favourites to succeed David Cameron, such as David Davis, George Osborne, Boris Johnson to name but a few.

    So after a gap of eleven years between contests we’re now on our second in three years.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.
    Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...
    No need to go all Jo Brand on him...
    He’d probably enjoy it anyway
    But wasn't he a grammar school kid ?
    Wannabes are the worst 😊
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.
    Ruth Davidson was a highly profitable lay briefly as well.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    Can’t be surely? That’s a year’s gross salary for the PM.

    (Although the two front runners are probably the only two who could actually write a cheque for that much).
    If this rule has only just been announced, then his really makes it feel like a stitch-up.
    I don't really see the problem with this. Campaigns for each of the candidates are quite well funded by supporters and pay for stuff like direct mail. Organising hustings etc is a substantial expense for CCHQ and the hustings are put on to help candidates convey their messages. Nobody making the top two would have any problem at all stumping up.

    It does say something about the state of CCHQ funding, however.
    Yes - but it's worse than that - the next PM may be beholden to those who gave him the money to attend the hustings..
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.
    How many other people have been favourite in this market? Hasn't it included Gove and Davis as well?

    If you laid all the favourites then that would minimise losses on a Johnson victory, and if there were enough of them you could still come out ahead, depending on the exact odds and stakes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.
    Yes indeed. Back when HY was telling us his time was coming.

    Sticking my neck out, I reckon Leadsom will achieve 20
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Perhaps Tissue Price could write a header on laying the favourite.
  • Endillion said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:
    This is going to be a Boris coronation isn't it....

    Good point :- say you are 2nd on <100 votes to Boris's 200+, what's the point of wasting £150k, you might just as well concede at that point.</p>
    Even if you're 200+ up against 100 for Johnson, you're still losing the member vote.
    You start as outsider in a race against Johnson. But there are two points. Firstly, it is not unlikely that Johnson will do or say something daft, or a revelation will emerge. So you don't have no chance by any means. Secondly, if Johnson really is going to be "Chairman of the Board" as claimed, he needs a Chief Exec, and you get that role by being every Tory's second favourite guy.

    Also, £150k simply isn't a problem. These people have plenty of wealthy supporters and will be spending a substantial sum on their campaigns anyway.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!

    ... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.
    I have long since thought that that is Boris plan. Get the EU to make the odd change to the PD, submit it to the HOC, and it passes fairly easily and he wins

    Back when May was facing her VoNC, a lot of people were arguing she should stay because her deal is the only one available. I never really understood that- surely if that's the case then it's all the more reason to replace her with somebody who would actually be good at selling the deal to parliament/their party. People didn't seem to be able to separate their support of the deal from their support of May.

    It could be that will still work, as you're suggesting. But maybe everyone's just too entrenched now. If that's the case then the people who wanted May to stay on are going to have to ask themselves whether that was for the best.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    It is a shame Sunderland has only Labour MPs. It would not take them an hour to count a mere 300 votes.

    Graham Brady and Cheryl Gillan are the counters AFAIK.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.
    I’ll be second. I thought he was soiled goods, and with good reason.

    The only thing I will say in my defence is that when the facts changed I quickly changed my betting position.
    I have always been of the view that he would win a landslide if allowed anywhere near the membership. The question was whether MPs would stop that. I was never convinced that they would go so against the membership as to not put him forward. The voluntary party would have exploded.

    I have bet accordingly, so that I am mildly green on Bozza, green on all 10 with a couple of biggies.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I have only done this market with play money (my biggest (and now only) exposure is - 120 quid on Leadsom winning) but I rode Boris's fluctuating price twice to lock in Green on the field.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    But I put cash on Hammond at one stage so what do I know?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.
    There are rumours he'll drop out and back Boris.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.

    Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.

    Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.

    Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.

    Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!

    Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
    How could anyone have laid the favourite pre 2001 (assuming Betfair had a market on it that year, which I doubt actually)?
    I was talking in the abstract about those years. You shouldn’t have backed the favourite in those years.

    So since 1965 when the Tories have elected their leaders the long term favourite hasn’t won yet.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,745
    AndyJS said:

    I think Boris was amusing on Have I Got News For You, but apart from that I don't know what people see in him.

    That's literally what people see in him. Bumbling charm on the telly while appearing entirely unembarrassed about all your shitey previous behaviours is now a primo qualification to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,562
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.

    Boris Johnson 103
    Jeremy Hunt 45
    Michael Gove 42
    Dominic Raab 30
    Rory Stewart 22
    Sajid Javid 21
    Matthew Hancock 19
    Andrea Leadsom 12
    Mark Harper 10
    Esther McVey 9

    Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.
    Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...
    No need to go all Jo Brand on him...
    He’d probably enjoy it anyway
    But wasn't he a grammar school kid ?
    Wannabes are the worst 😊
    Perhaps, but isn't enjoying a sound beating a pretty well exclusively public school thing ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.

    The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.

    I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefree
    I know. I just wanted to big-up @corporeal ...:)

    Before I forget, has @Tissue_Price or @AndreaParma_82 or @AndyJS or @Casino_Royale or @Black_Rook or - come to think of it - you written articles? I like it when the analysts and gamblers come out to play.

    Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget... :(
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    It definitely worked for the last tory election, and the last labour election. Not for Brown before that, but yes for Cameron.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    Can’t be surely? That’s a year’s gross salary for the PM.

    (Although the two front runners are probably the only two who could actually write a cheque for that much).
    If this rule has only just been announced, then his really makes it feel like a stitch-up.
    I don't really see the problem with this. Campaigns for each of the candidates are quite well funded by supporters and pay for stuff like direct mail. Organising hustings etc is a substantial expense for CCHQ and the hustings are put on to help candidates convey their messages. Nobody making the top two would have any problem at all stumping up.

    It does say something about the state of CCHQ funding, however.
    If the rules have been changed (again) after the process has started, then it stinks.

    I also hope the sources of funding for this (and indeed all the candidates) are declared to parliament.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    My position was that Boris Johnson would be a reckless, bordering on the foolhardy, choice as Party leader, who would be a poor PM.
    That remains my opinion.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!

    ... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.
    I have long since thought that that is Boris plan. Get the EU to make the odd change to the PD, submit it to the HOC, and it passes fairly easily and he wins

    Back when May was facing her VoNC, a lot of people were arguing she should stay because her deal is the only one available. I never really understood that- surely if that's the case then it's all the more reason to replace her with somebody who would actually be good at selling the deal to parliament/their party. People didn't seem to be able to separate their support of the deal from their support of May.

    It could be that will still work, as you're suggesting. But maybe everyone's just too entrenched now. If that's the case then the people who wanted May to stay on are going to have to ask themselves whether that was for the best.
    Although really the blame would be with the ERG. They were the ones who totally failed to reach out during the VoNC and make the argument to any other Tories that it might be in their interests to replace May too. Instead it was a pointless, counterproductive, feather-puffing exercise.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Scott_P said:
    Adding a fourth reason why Boris might underperform, to the three I offered earlier
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    If the Conservatives take an hour to count about 300 pieces of paper it says a lot about how we got into this disaster.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific

    Lots of PB humble pie!

    I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
    More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.

    I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
    Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.
    Yes indeed. Back when HY was telling us his time was coming.

    Sticking my neck out, I reckon Leadsom will achieve 20
    It all seemed to go wrong for Rees-Mogg with the publication of his terrible book on the Victorian era, which was lambasted across the political spectrum. It rather exposed him as a pseudo-intellectual and money grabber. In Boris world I doubt we'll hear much of him again.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.

    The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.

    I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefree
    I know. I just wanted to big-up @corporeal ...:)

    Before I forget, has @Tissue_Price or @AndreaParma_82 or @AndyJS or @Casino_Royale or @Black_Rook or - come to think of it - you written articles? I like it when the analysts and gamblers come out to play.

    Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget... :(
    I’ve done one or two but I find it hard work, to be honest.
This discussion has been closed.