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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    The party already has chosen, the overwhelming majority of Tory party members and 2017 Tory voters have decided we must leave the EU Deal or No Deal. Just in Boris they might finally have a leader who will deliver that

    It's what May knew she should say, because logically it was the only way to get a good deal, but nobody believed her.

    If May had meant what she'd said we'd be in a far better place now. Hopefully Boris does and hopefully it won't be too little, too late.
    She *did* mean it when she first said it, but then Unionists in Ireland and Scotland spelt out for her, very clearly, the inevitable constitutional end-point of such a drastic move. May was screwed by Ruthie.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    HYUFD said:

    Being pragmatic, with business-friendly financial discipline and facing up to difficult decisions could have applied to the Tories in 1997, they were trounced. It does not always work out that way.

    Yes, but in 1997, Labour was not only also "pragmatic, with business-friendly financial discipline and [capable of] facing up to difficult decisions" but was sleaze-free and fresh.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    HYUFD said:

    The party already has chosen, the overwhelming majority of Tory party members and 2017 Tory voters have decided we must leave the EU Deal or No Deal. Just in Boris they might finally have a leader who will deliver that

    It's what May knew she should say, because logically it was the only way to get a good deal, but nobody believed her.

    If May had meant what she'd said we'd be in a far better place now. Hopefully Boris does and hopefully it won't be too little, too late.
    I think TM did mean what she said but she was utterly unsuited as a salesperson

    Indeed, if Boris had achieved her deal he would have sold it and we would be out

    Not that I am a Boris supporter but he does have charisma and ability to sell
    If she meant it, she chickened out. By the end she was like a rabbit in the headlights clearly unwilling to "take no deal off the table" but clearly unwilling to actually go to no deal which is the same thing.

    It was like Corbyn saying he would pay for Trident but would in no circumstances use it.

    I do agree about the saleman bit. I said before the December Tory No Confidence vote the best chance of May's deal being ratified was an amended version being pushed by someone else. Replacing May would allow her successor to say they have got the best amendments possible and made ratification more viable.
    Re your last sentence - hence Boris and I expect that will be the outcome
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    On topic, the Conservatives have slumped into Brexit alcoholism and this time they've sunk lower than ever before. They've graduated from the two bottles a day of Leave vodka to the meths of no deal Brexit. Until they accept that Brexit is the cause of their problems not the solution, they are only going to sink lower. But that would take a sense of awareness that they no longer in their befuddled state are capable of reaching.

    Let’s say the Conservatives abandoned Brexit tomorrow, saying it had all been a terrible mistake.

    What do you think would happen to them?
    I didn’t say they should immediately go cold turkey. They’d get the DTs (Daily Telegraphs in this case) and that could be fatal too.

    The starting point, however, has to be a recognition that Brexit has been the most appalling mistake for the Conservatives to put at the centre of their prospectus, to consider how best to move on and then find a way to leave the subject behind for good. But that would require honesty with the electorate and to lead rather than follow, and the Conservatives are nowhere near ready to be honest with themselves never mind anyone else. I am not sure they ever will be. This could well be terminal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    HYUFD said:

    Being pragmatic, with business-friendly financial discipline and facing up to difficult decisions could have applied to the Tories in 1997, they were trounced. It does not always work out that way.

    Yes, but in 1997, Labour was not only also "pragmatic, with business-friendly financial discipline and [capable of] facing up to difficult decisions" but was sleaze-free and fresh.
    It was from 1997 up to about 2001-2002.

    In the 1997-2001 Parliament it just removed immigration control and stacked the deck on UK devolution and constitutional reform.

    More chickens came home to roost from that than Brown’s profligacy in the noughties.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    HYUFD said:

    The party already has chosen, the overwhelming majority of Tory party members and 2017 Tory voters have decided we must leave the EU Deal or No Deal. Just in Boris they might finally have a leader who will deliver that

    It's what May knew she should say, because logically it was the only way to get a good deal, but nobody believed her.

    If May had meant what she'd said we'd be in a far better place now. Hopefully Boris does and hopefully it won't be too little, too late.
    I think TM did mean what she said but she was utterly unsuited as a salesperson

    Indeed, if Boris had achieved her deal he would have sold it and we would be out

    Not that I am a Boris supporter but he does have charisma and ability to sell
    If she meant it, she chickened out. By the end she was like a rabbit in the headlights clearly unwilling to "take no deal off the table" but clearly unwilling to actually go to no deal which is the same thing.

    It was like Corbyn saying he would pay for Trident but would in no circumstances use it.

    I do agree about the saleman bit. I said before the December Tory No Confidence vote the best chance of May's deal being ratified was an amended version being pushed by someone else. Replacing May would allow her successor to say they have got the best amendments possible and made ratification more viable.
    Re your last sentence - hence Boris and I expect that will be the outcome
    I'm sure up until recently you were saying that anybody who replaced May would face the same impossible situation as her and be unable to do any better
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    On topic, the Conservatives have slumped into Brexit alcoholism and this time they've sunk lower than ever before. They've graduated from the two bottles a day of Leave vodka to the meths of no deal Brexit. Until they accept that Brexit is the cause of their problems not the solution, they are only going to sink lower. But that would take a sense of awareness that they no longer in their befuddled state are capable of reaching.

    Let’s say the Conservatives abandoned Brexit tomorrow, saying it had all been a terrible mistake.

    What do you think would happen to them?
    I didn’t say they should immediately go cold turkey. They’d get the DTs (Daily Telegraphs in this case) and that could be fatal too.

    The starting point, however, has to be a recognition that Brexit has been the most appalling mistake for the Conservatives to put at the centre of their prospectus, to consider how best to move on and then find a way to leave the subject behind for good. But that would require honesty with the electorate and to lead rather than follow, and the Conservatives are nowhere near ready to be honest with themselves never mind anyone else. I am not sure they ever will be. This could well be terminal.
    Thanks. I agree with most of that, as it happens.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Being pragmatic, with business-friendly financial discipline and facing up to difficult decisions could have applied to the Tories in 1997, they were trounced. It does not always work out that way.

    Yes, but in 1997, Labour was not only also "pragmatic, with business-friendly financial discipline and [capable of] facing up to difficult decisions" but was sleaze-free and fresh.
    Or you could equally argue 1966.

    In many respects not facing up to the difficult decisions required to deliver Brexit ie deliver it Deal or No Deal is why the Tories have their current problems
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
    It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.

    The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
    He's the only one making ground. If the race had been over a few months with conference speeches etc then he'd have a real chance.

    Also the 'not Boris' vote is unknown amongst MPs. If he gains almost nothing from the eliminated candidates then it'll be a big worry for him.

    In my view the market as it stands is priced almost perfectly. (And its very annoying)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,773

    Nigelb said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    Ah, I see now. So the 8% is actually UKIP then?

    Fraser is talking nonsense. Clearly Farage is running a National Populist party and it is obvious what kind of policies are likely to emerge. Anti-elite, anti-media, anti representative democracy, pro-WTO, pro US trade deal, voice of the people etc etc.
    Oh, he'll be anti WTO in time, when he realises it will come up decisions he doesn't like.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    If the Tories to not deliver Brexit the Brexit Party will overtake them, that is the main point
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Small Government.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TudorRose said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Always consider the source before betting, readers
    Be fair; when it comes to sounding like a prick Roger is an expert.
    A 'prick' from a Tudor Rose!

    That was one of the songs in the first episode of BlackAdder II's music sequence
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,773
    nico67 said:

    The Bozo strategy is tell both sides what they want to hear and hope the eventual losing side accepts you lied to them and says fine no problem

    Hey, it worked with his wife for more than a decade
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488

    Of course The Brexit Party is populist, for the very reason Nelson gives: they have almost zero policies (unless “neutrality” on Scottish independence counts as a policy).
    Nelson just invented the No True Populist paradox.
    Can someone explain that graph? It seems to be showing BXP on 8% at 2019 EU election? Er?
    No, he's claiming that the Brexit party is not populist. Given it has an irreplaceable leader that campaigns against political elites by appealing to the will of the people, it's pretty much the Platonic ideal of a populist party.
    Ah, I see now. So the 8% is actually UKIP then?

    Fraser is talking nonsense. Clearly Farage is running a National Populist party and it is obvious what kind of policies are likely to emerge. Anti-elite, anti-media, anti representative democracy, pro-WTO, pro US trade deal, voice of the people etc etc.
    Oh, he'll be anti WTO in time, when he realises it will come up decisions he doesn't like.
    Quite. Which proves the point: Farage is the ultimate populist. He is against everything and for nothing.

    Ruthie has clearly been taking notes.
  • Can't agree with the header. Why has the Conservative party survived and thrived for 200 years? Because it has adapted and moved with the times.

    There is simply no appetite for re-heated Cameroonism right now any more than there is for re-heated Blairism.

    After the end of WW2, a post-war consensus held steady until Thatcher came and swept it away.
    After the end of the Cold War a new consensus formed under Blair and then the Coalition and now this too is being swept away.

    Why? Consider the following:

    - A financial system where heads I win, tails I get bailed out
    - A tax system where big corporates like Amazon take jobs from the high street and yet pay very little tax
    - An immigration system where someone can come here with no skills and claim child benefit for a child who doesn't even live here
    - A police force that cares more about hate crime than burglary
    - Public services that are on their knees (and yet high taxes)

    Brexit and Corbyn show that a wave of change is coming. The Tories can embrace the change that is coming or they will be sunk by it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Omnium said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Small Government.
    Therefore they should adopt a BINO approach to Brexit to avoid expanding the scope of government?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Omnium said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Small Government.
    On 31 March 2017, there were 332,800 Civil Service employees in England, 43,220 in Scotland, 32,440 in Wales and 3,760 in Northern Ireland.

    How’s that Small Government going?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,839
    Omnium said:




    A skilled Tory leader could exploit the many divisions within the parliamentary Labour party. May and Johnson for completely differing reasons are probably the two least likely to achieve that in parliament, and the Tories have chosen them in succession.

    Boris has quite a few skills. He's not in the mould of the PMs we've had recently, but I don't think its necessary for the PM to be on top of detail in the way that PMs since Callaghan have generally been.

    Cameron was what I guess you'd call a 'skilled Tory leader' and look where that went. (I think it's a pity he didn't stay on)

    Hague was (and still is) an exemplary leader - however somehow he didn't cut it. (Baseball cap)

    I'm not concerned about any of the likely winners of the Tory race. I'd prefer if Raab didn't win as I think his suggestion of proroguing parliament was horrible, unwise, and generally ludicrous. I don't think he's prone to such stupidity though.

    Whoever the new leader is they have a very simple agenda for the next few months - get Brexit out of the way, and survive until it is out of the way.
    Then what?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Small Government.
    Therefore they should adopt a BINO approach to Brexit to avoid expanding the scope of government?
    There's a reduction in government if we crash out.

    I was allowed a short paragraph, and I used two words.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Richard has explained it well at the end of his thread header.

    The point is that it now risks losing it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    The Bozo strategy is tell both sides what they want to hear and hope the eventual losing side accepts you lied to them and says fine no problem

    Hey, it worked with his wife for more than a decade
    😬
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Small Government.
    Therefore they should adopt a BINO approach to Brexit to avoid expanding the scope of government?
    There's a reduction in government if we crash out.

    I was allowed a short paragraph, and I used two words.
    I realise that but it's a serious point. A crash out would not reduce government - they would need to go on a massive hiring spree to cope with it. Any form of Brexit involves asking the UK government to do more than it does at present. That's surely the point of it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
    It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.

    The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
    He's the only one making ground. If the race had been over a few months with conference speeches etc then he'd have a real chance.

    Also the 'not Boris' vote is unknown amongst MPs. If he gains almost nothing from the eliminated candidates then it'll be a big worry for him.

    In my view the market as it stands is priced almost perfectly. (And its very annoying)
    Just because he’s making some ground doesn’t mean he’d make *all* the ground, if only he had more time.

    He has a natural cap of support of about 40-50 MPs. And his current pitch isn’t going to beat Boris in a members vote.

    If he ran as a passionate Conservative appealing to its history, past leaders and its roots then it might be different.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Small Government.
    Therefore they should adopt a BINO approach to Brexit to avoid expanding the scope of government?
    There's a reduction in government if we crash out.

    I was allowed a short paragraph, and I used two words.
    I realise that but it's a serious point. A crash out would not reduce government - they would need to go on a massive hiring spree to cope with it. Any form of Brexit involves asking the UK government to do more than it does at present. That's surely the point of it?
    Please don’t make serious points. It confuses them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and it's beginning to depress me. "Failing and blaming" I think will maintain currency for some while yet (in fact, it directly addresses @Richard_Nabavi 's article!) and my more recent one of "Rule 1: Tory Remainers Have No Stones" will be trotted out over the next couple of months... :(
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Small Government.
    On 31 March 2017, there were 332,800 Civil Service employees in England, 43,220 in Scotland, 32,440 in Wales and 3,760 in Northern Ireland.

    How’s that Small Government going?

    Quite poorly - some arse employed all sorts of people to mess about without achieving anything.

    Overall though (other than in the MoD), as far as I know the civil service is reasonably balanced.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    edited June 2019
    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
    It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.

    The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
    He's the only one making ground. If the race had been over a few months with conference speeches etc then he'd have a real chance.

    Also the 'not Boris' vote is unknown amongst MPs. If he gains almost nothing from the eliminated candidates then it'll be a big worry for him.

    In my view the market as it stands is priced almost perfectly. (And its very annoying)
    The 'not Boris' vote is irrelevant; he already has enough MPs to get through to the members' vote.

    Edit; 'he' being Boris
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    edited June 2019

    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
    It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.

    The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
    He's the only one making ground. If the race had been over a few months with conference speeches etc then he'd have a real chance.

    Also the 'not Boris' vote is unknown amongst MPs. If he gains almost nothing from the eliminated candidates then it'll be a big worry for him.

    In my view the market as it stands is priced almost perfectly. (And its very annoying)
    Just because he’s making some ground doesn’t mean he’d make *all* the ground, if only he had more time.

    He has a natural cap of support of about 40-50 MPs. And his current pitch isn’t going to beat Boris in a members vote.

    If he ran as a passionate Conservative appealing to its history, past leaders and its roots then it might be different.
    Absolutely - at 5% chance that's about right. I'd have it at closer to 2% mind you.

    edit: the main thing here is that there are a few hundred people that do know
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and it's beginning to depress me. "Failing and blaming" I think will maintain currency for some while yet (in fact, it directly addresses @Richard_Nabavi 's article!) and my more recent one of "Rule 1: Tory Remainers Have No Stones" will be trotted out over the next couple of months... :(
    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and it's beginning to depress me. "Failing and blaming" I think will maintain currency for some while yet (in fact, it directly addresses @Richard_Nabavi 's article!) and my more recent one of "Rule 1: Tory Remainers Have No Stones" will be trotted out over the next couple of months... :(
    Or they think Boris will rat?

    It’s what I expect him to do. I’ve bet on a second referendum.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Johnson by avoiding the Channel 4 debate is hoping to avoid Rory Stewart who might ask some uncomfortable questions .

    The rest are desperate for a cabinet job and will likely be more amenable .

    It’s going to be a hard slog for Stewart to get past the next round of voting so Johnson can avoid him in the Tuesday debate .
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Richard has explained it well at the end of his thread header.

    The point is that it now risks losing it.
    You mean: “pragmatism, business-friendly financial discipline, and facing up to difficult decisions”?

    They lost those three USPs many years ago. Please don’t embarrass yourself by asking us to list all the legion examples of the Conservatives being unpragmatic, running away from difficult decisions, financial ill-discipline and telling business to go FO.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    UT's like Remainers know Boris will betray Brexit fast if it's expedient for him.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    TudorRose said:

    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
    It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.

    The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
    He's the only one making ground. If the race had been over a few months with conference speeches etc then he'd have a real chance.

    Also the 'not Boris' vote is unknown amongst MPs. If he gains almost nothing from the eliminated candidates then it'll be a big worry for him.

    In my view the market as it stands is priced almost perfectly. (And its very annoying)
    The 'not Boris' vote is irrelevant; he already has enough MPs to get through to the members' vote.

    Edit; 'he' being Boris
    No he doesn't - he has to finish in the top 2, and he only has around a third.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    AndyJS said:
    Brilliant. I’d love the Canadian Tories to win. Trudeau is a massive tosser.

    But, the Canadians love to wildly zig-zag their votes in the final weeks, so its not over until its over.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    Nigelb said:

    The New Yorker has a good primer on Johnson for those less familiar with his history:
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson

    Thanks Nigel.

    Some of that was new, none of it was surprising. What astonsihes is that a hundred or so of his colloeagues can think that he is suitable for the position of Prime Minister.

    The public can to some extent be forgiven for not fully appreciating what he is like. His colleagues cannot.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Small Government.
    On 31 March 2017, there were 332,800 Civil Service employees in England, 43,220 in Scotland, 32,440 in Wales and 3,760 in Northern Ireland.

    How’s that Small Government going?

    Quite poorly - some arse employed all sorts of people to mess about without achieving anything.

    Overall though (other than in the MoD), as far as I know the civil service is reasonably balanced.
    Whitehall: balanced.

    Westminster: unbalanced.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Vaguely on topic, I wrote this a while back:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/29/the-challenges-facing-the-conservatives/

    The scuffling sound you can hear now is of chickens coming home to roost.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    They represent the interests and mentality of a wide swathe of society, ranging from the landowners to property-owning classes and the retired. They are best thought of as a tribe and attempts to ascribe values to them are pointless, as they will change as the tribe changes over time. They do have a strength and a weakness, as Frasier Nelson's awful tweet demonstrates: they will ignore inconvenient truths with a tenacity that is both impressive and appalling.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    I agree with Richard on this one.

    It's all rather depressing. Does anyone know whether it is true that Cameron is backing Boris? I find that baffling. Wouldn't Hunt make more sense?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Vaguely on topic, I wrote this a while back:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/29/the-challenges-facing-the-conservatives/

    The scuffling sound you can hear now is of chickens coming home to roost.

    Mr Meeks! Your chickens walk elegantly at all times. No scuffling.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Brilliant. I’d love the Canadian Tories to win. Trudeau is a massive tosser.

    Just for you:

    https://twitter.com/MichelleRempel/status/1138112029309440001
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    HYUFD said:

    The party already has chosen, the overwhelming majority of Tory party members and 2017 Tory voters have decided we must leave the EU Deal or No Deal. Just in Boris they might finally have a leader who will deliver that

    It's what May knew she should say, because logically it was the only way to get a good deal, but nobody believed her.

    If May had meant what she'd said we'd be in a far better place now. Hopefully Boris does and hopefully it won't be too little, too late.
    I think TM did mean what she said but she was utterly unsuited as a salesperson

    Indeed, if Boris had achieved her deal he would have sold it and we would be out

    Not that I am a Boris supporter but he does have charisma and ability to sell
    If she meant it, she chickened out. By the end she was like a rabbit in the headlights clearly unwilling to "take no deal off the table" but clearly unwilling to actually go to no deal which is the same thing.

    It was like Corbyn saying he would pay for Trident but would in no circumstances use it.

    I do agree about the saleman bit. I said before the December Tory No Confidence vote the best chance of May's deal being ratified was an amended version being pushed by someone else. Replacing May would allow her successor to say they have got the best amendments possible and made ratification more viable.
    Re your last sentence - hence Boris and I expect that will be the outcome
    I'm sure up until recently you were saying that anybody who replaced May would face the same impossible situation as her and be unable to do any better
    I have not changed my mind but a few tweaks and maybe
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Brilliant. I’d love the Canadian Tories to win. Trudeau is a massive tosser.

    Just for you:

    https://twitter.com/MichelleRempel/status/1138112029309440001
    Seen this one already but it never gets old!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Richard has explained it well at the end of his thread header.

    The point is that it now risks losing it.
    You mean: “pragmatism, business-friendly financial discipline, and facing up to difficult decisions”?

    They lost those three USPs many years ago. Please don’t embarrass yourself by asking us to list all the legion examples of the Conservatives being unpragmatic, running away from difficult decisions, financial ill-discipline and telling business to go FO.
    You’re a partisan anti-Conservative who sees them as the biggest obstacle to Scottish nationalism, so I wouldn’t expect you to post an objective view.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Omnium said:

    TudorRose said:

    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
    It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.

    The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
    He's the only one making ground. If the race had been over a few months with conference speeches etc then he'd have a real chance.

    Also the 'not Boris' vote is unknown amongst MPs. If he gains almost nothing from the eliminated candidates then it'll be a big worry for him.

    In my view the market as it stands is priced almost perfectly. (And its very annoying)
    The 'not Boris' vote is irrelevant; he already has enough MPs to get through to the members' vote.

    Edit; 'he' being Boris
    No he doesn't - he has to finish in the top 2, and he only has around a third.
    He can't be stopped from being in the final two if he has a third of the votes. Of course some of his supporters might desert him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has been mentioned but anyone who has bet against Boris must be feeling better after his lunchtime interview with the Mark Mardel.

    I didn't realise till that interview that without the clowning and humour he is just a blustering inarticulate Tory. Whoever has advised him to drop the comic mask has made a serious error. He sounded like a prick

    If that is the real Boris he will NOT survive several weeks of scrutiny. Even to the bluest of the blue.

    Nah, they have made their minds up. If he gets to last two it is over.
    How does he fail to get to the last two ? That's even more of a cert part than the members vote now. He is over the 110 threshold !
    He should be 1.05 in the betting now. He's PM in waiting.

    He's 1.3 for next PM and 1.2 for next Tory Leader on Betfair. Both look like close to free money.
    It’s about right. He’s very able to fall flat on his face, but is clear favourite for now.

    The ultra shortness of Rory Stewart is a mystery. He has no prospect of winning.
    He's the only one making ground. If the race had been over a few months with conference speeches etc then he'd have a real chance.

    Also the 'not Boris' vote is unknown amongst MPs. If he gains almost nothing from the eliminated candidates then it'll be a big worry for him.

    In my view the market as it stands is priced almost perfectly. (And its very annoying)
    Just because he’s making some ground doesn’t mean he’d make *all* the ground, if only he had more time.

    He has a natural cap of support of about 40-50 MPs. And his current pitch isn’t going to beat Boris in a members vote.

    If he ran as a passionate Conservative appealing to its history, past leaders and its roots then it might be different.
    Absolutely - at 5% chance that's about right. I'd have it at closer to 2% mind you.

    edit: the main thing here is that there are a few hundred people that do know
    He should be at about 40-50/1, I agree.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone think Rory Stewart can get 33 votes on Tuesday?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Rory Stewart can get 33 votes on Tuesday?

    If he performs very well in the debate at the weekend and if there are dramatically better opinion polls for him, then I think he might pick up enough votes, but it's definitely unlikely.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Very good header Richard but for a lot of people and for many skirmishes ahead just being Boris means some of those decisions when they come, and they will have to come soon, will be a lot easier to get through.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:
    Brilliant. I’d love the Canadian Tories to win. Trudeau is a massive tosser.

    But, the Canadians love to wildly zig-zag their votes in the final weeks, so its not over until its over.
    I didn't expect Trudeau to become so unpopular so quickly.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    The view that “getting brexit out of the way and we can get on with things” is simplistic and fails to recognize that apart from revoke and remain getting brexit out of the way will be the key focus of government for years to come as they work out hundreds of treaties from pensioners healthcare in other countries to trade agreements with a multitude of countries. Small government it will not be and the inherent problems will be left unaddressed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Oh and asking for a friend, is Rory unelectable as party leader in the same way as Jezza was?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Rory Stewart can get 33 votes on Tuesday?

    Yep, I do. I don't think he will, but I think he might.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Rory Stewart can get 33 votes on Tuesday?

    If he performs very well in the debate at the weekend and if there are dramatically better opinion polls for him, then I think he might pick up enough votes, but it's definitely unlikely.
    I think he may need Javid to drop out before the next ballot to stand a chance of getting the votes he needs. But if Hancock backs Javid the latter isn't going to drop out.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    viewcode said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    They represent the interests and mentality of a wide swathe of society, ranging from the landowners to property-owning classes and the retired. They are best thought of as a tribe and attempts to ascribe values to them are pointless, as they will change as the tribe changes over time. They do have a strength and a weakness, as Frasier Nelson's awful tweet demonstrates: they will ignore inconvenient truths with a tenacity that is both impressive and appalling.
    Not bad for a fourth party
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233

    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and it's beginning to depress me. "Failing and blaming" I think will maintain currency for some while yet (in fact, it directly addresses @Richard_Nabavi 's article!) and my more recent one of "Rule 1: Tory Remainers Have No Stones" will be trotted out over the next couple of months... :(
    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and it's beginning to depress me. "Failing and blaming" I think will maintain currency for some while yet (in fact, it directly addresses @Richard_Nabavi 's article!) and my more recent one of "Rule 1: Tory Remainers Have No Stones" will be trotted out over the next couple of months... :(
    Or they think Boris will rat?

    It’s what I expect him to do. I’ve bet on a second referendum.
    I dont know. I don't know who keeps pointing out that we are all over-assuming that Boris is joking when he says he'll take us out by Oct 31, deal or no deal (@Richard_Nabavi ?) But I think that person is right. I think Boris is deadly serious and he will do it because his job depends on it. And Boris does what is best for Boris. So I'm not betting on a second Referendum, no: I think we're beyond that.

    The past six months have been a tale of people wearily giving up. Some MPs defected, got some funding, failed. The People's Vote made some noise, got some funding, failed. May tried to block "no deal", failed. Parliament tried to block Brexit, failed. People reacted with incredulity at Boris succeeding and they will also fail. Fail, fail, fail, epic fail.

    So to answer your question: no I don't think Boris will rat (or if he does it won't be seen as such)... :(
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited June 2019

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    They're the only party that can keep Labour out.

    (EDIT: if the Labour-hating fraction of the electorate ever starts to believe that an alternative can do the job better, then it's goodnight Vienna)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TOPPING said:

    Oh and asking for a friend, is Rory unelectable as party leader in the same way as Jezza was?

    The difference is the Conservative entryists are pro Brexit
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited June 2019

    Vaguely on topic, I wrote this a while back:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/29/the-challenges-facing-the-conservatives/

    The scuffling sound you can hear now is of chickens coming home to roost.

    Well, maybe, but the voters haven't decamped to the NHS Party, they've decamped to the Brexit Party. Is that really because other things are more important to the voters than Brexit?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    Richard has explained it well at the end of his thread header.

    The point is that it now risks losing it.
    You mean: “pragmatism, business-friendly financial discipline, and facing up to difficult decisions”?

    They lost those three USPs many years ago. Please don’t embarrass yourself by asking us to list all the legion examples of the Conservatives being unpragmatic, running away from difficult decisions, financial ill-discipline and telling business to go FO.
    You’re a partisan anti-Conservative who sees them as the biggest obstacle to Scottish nationalism, so I wouldn’t expect you to post an objective view.
    Nonsense. The biggest obstacle to Scottish independence is SLab, and they are well and truly done in finest missionary style.

    The SCons are a side-show.

    It looks like you are just begging for a long list of examples of the Conservatives being unpragmatic, running away from difficult decisions, financial ill-discipline and telling business to go FO.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and i :(
    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and it's beginning to depress me. "Failing and blaming" I think will maintain currency for some while yet (in fact, it directly addresses @Richard_Nabavi 's article!) and my more recent one of "Rule 1: Tory Remainers Have No Stones" will be trotted out over the next couple of months... :(
    Or they think Boris will rat?

    It’s what I expect him to do. I’ve bet on a second referendum.
    I dont know. I don't know who keeps pointing out that we are all over-assuming that Boris is joking when he says he'll take us out by Oct 31, deal or no deal (@Richard_Nabavi ?) But I think that person is right. I think Boris is deadly serious and he will do it because his job depends on it. And Boris does what is best for Boris. So I'm not betting on a second Referendum, no: I think we're beyond that.

    The past six months have been a tale of people wearily giving up. Some MPs defected, got some funding, failed. The People's Vote made some noise, got some funding, failed. May tried to block "no deal", failed. Parliament tried to block Brexit, failed. People reacted with incredulity at Boris succeeding and they will also fail. Fail, fail, fail, epic fail.

    So to answer your question: no I don't think Boris will rat (or if he does it won't be seen as such)... :(
    What if he doesn't? What if he goes the sane route? What's the party going to do? Start sending letters to the 22?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Vaguely on topic, I wrote this a while back:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/29/the-challenges-facing-the-conservatives/

    The scuffling sound you can hear now is of chickens coming home to roost.

    Well, maybe, but the voters haven't decamped to the NHS Party, they've decamped to the Brexit Party. Is that really because other things are more important to the voters than Brexit?
    No, it’s because the Conservatives, the party of government, talk about nothing other than Brexit and so the voters go to one or other of the parties that expresses their views on that more accurately. If the Conservatives had been addressing other subjects, the political battles would have been about them.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited June 2019
    The interview today with Johnson was poor from the interviewee perspective . Mardell just let him drone on and the one question he should have asked on suspending parliament he didn’t.

    Bozo is clearly barring something astonishing going to be the next PM . MPs from different wings of the party seem to have projected what they want to see .

    Remainers hark back to his London Mayor days and the ERG to his more recent behaviour .

    You can’t be all things to all MPs . The Bozo chameleon act won’t survive the next few months .

    Unless miraculously the EU give him some concession that he can spin as a great victory then this isn’t going to end well for the Tories or the country .

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    They're the only party that can keep Labour out.

    (EDIT: if the Labour-hating fraction of the electorate ever starts to believe that an alternative can do the job better, then it's goodnight Vienna)
    And we have a podium contender!!

    Correct: two sides of the same counterfeit coin. They cannot survive without each other. So, what happens now they’re both on the slide?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,839
    Incidentally. If anyone is considering betting on, or even just following the Canadian Federal Election, may I recommend heartily 338canada.com
    Unbiased and scientific blogs, polling and projections by and for Canadians. We often tend to see Canada through an American or European filter, when it has its own, distinct political culture.
    While Justin is a long way behind, the Conservatives still have a way to go to get into power.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    isam said:

    Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)

    Interesting, I missed the show last night.

    I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Fascinating watching Remainers persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Nigel Farage is a safer choice for Number 10 than Boris Johnson.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Vaguely on topic, I wrote this a while back:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/29/the-challenges-facing-the-conservatives/

    The scuffling sound you can hear now is of chickens coming home to roost.

    Well, maybe, but the voters haven't decamped to the NHS Party, they've decamped to the Brexit Party. Is that really because other things are more important to the voters than Brexit?
    No, it’s because the Conservatives, the party of government, talk about nothing other than Brexit and so the voters go to one or other of the parties that expresses their views on that more accurately. If the Conservatives had been addressing other subjects, the political battles would have been about them.
    Shhh...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)

    Interesting, I missed the show last night.

    I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
    I could imagine a weird dynamic where there's a feel-good Boris honeymoon, but no-one actually votes for him. As if his only achievement would be to lift the spell of fatalism.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    They are for pensioners.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Rory Stewart can get 33 votes on Tuesday?

    If he performs very well in the debate at the weekend and if there are dramatically better opinion polls for him, then I think he might pick up enough votes, but it's definitely unlikely.
    I think he may need Javid to drop out before the next ballot to stand a chance of getting the votes he needs. But if Hancock backs Javid the latter isn't going to drop out.
    Realistically he would need to pick up MPs from Hunt and Gove, too, perhaps those disappointed that their previous choice hadn't done so well to challenge Boris.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)

    Interesting, I missed the show last night.

    I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
    I could imagine a weird dynamic where there's a feel-good Boris honeymoon, but no-one actually votes for him. As if his only achievement would be to lift the spell of fatalism.
    We've had three years of May walking to the podium give us some blessed relief!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    Respectfully disagree with this excellent and thoughtful article. As of now we are where we are. Conservatives have their usual jobs of being all the things Richard Nabavi mentions as its virtues. But how best to be it? Parliament is stymied by a combination of no majority, small groups at both extremes who have destroyed TM and an opposition which isn't there to help. Outside parliament it is threatened with apocalypse (see today's YouGov poll) from the Brexit party.

    The betting market shows that we are on for an election in 2019 as the most likely year. It is therefore essential as a first priority that the leader is a possible election winner. Without that they truly are sunk. To win an election this year it is essential to both present an attractive prospect, and equally essential to outflank the Brexit party.

    Whether or not that election happens before 31 Oct (by no means impossible) or after there is precisely nil evidence of another leader who could win it both against Lab, LDs and Brexit.

    As between Lab and Con it is pretty clear that the one will come first who has least split their centre right/ centre left vote. Boris gives the Tories a fighting chance.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and i :(
    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and it's beginning to depress me. "Failing and blaming" I think will maintain currency for some while yet (in fact, it directly addresses @Richard_Nabavi 's article!) and my more recent one of "Rule 1: Tory Remainers Have No Stones" will be trotted out over the next couple of months... :(
    Or they think Boris will rat?

    It’s what I expect him to do. I’ve bet on a second referendum.
    I dont know. I don't know who keeps pointing out that we are all over-assuming that Boris is joking when he says he'll take us out by Oct 31, deal or no deal (@Richard_Nabavi ?) But I think that person is right. I think Boris is deadly serious and he will do it because his job depends on it. And Boris does what is best for Boris. So I'm not betting on a second Referendum, no: I think we're beyond that.

    The past six months have been a tale of people wearily giving up. Some MPs defected, got some funding, failed. The People's Vote made some noise, got some funding, failed. May tried to block "no deal", failed. Parliament tried to block Brexit, failed. People reacted with incredulity at Boris succeeding and they will also fail. Fail, fail, fail, epic fail.

    So to answer your question: no I don't think Boris will rat (or if he does it won't be seen as such)... :(
    What if he doesn't? What if he goes the sane route? What's the party going to do? Start sending letters to the 22?
    Good question, but I do not have an answer for you I'm afraid.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    dixiedean said:

    Incidentally. If anyone is considering betting on, or even just following the Canadian Federal Election, may I recommend heartily 338canada.com
    Unbiased and scientific blogs, polling and projections by and for Canadians. We often tend to see Canada through an American or European filter, when it has its own, distinct political culture.
    While Justin is a long way behind, the Conservatives still have a way to go to get into power.


    Useful, thank you.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)

    Interesting, I missed the show last night.

    I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
    I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    viewcode said:

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    They represent the interests and mentality of a wide swathe of society, ranging from the landowners to property-owning classes and the retired. They are best thought of as a tribe and attempts to ascribe values to them are pointless, as they will change as the tribe changes over time. They do have a strength and a weakness, as Fraser Nelson's awful tweet demonstrates: they will ignore inconvenient truths with a tenacity that is both impressive and appalling.
    All true. But it’s hardly a USP is it? I mean Labour are exactly the same, except different tribe(s); and blind to obvious truths.

    If you were a marketing man, how would you sell the Conservatives? What is their USP? I just cannot see one.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and i :(
    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep com. :(
    Or they think Boris will rat?

    It’s what I expect him to do. I’ve bet on a second referendum.
    I dont know. I don't know who keeps pointing out that we are all over-assuming that Boris is joking when he says he'll take us out by Oct 31, deal or no deal (@Richard_Nabavi ?) But I think that person is right. I think Boris is deadly serious and he will do it because his job depends on it. And Boris does what is best for Boris. So I'm not betting on a second Referendum, no: I think we're beyond that.

    The past six months have been a tale of people wearily giving up. Some MPs defected, got some funding, failed. The People's Vote made some noise, got some funding, failed. May tried to block "no deal", failed. Parliament tried to block Brexit, failed. People reacted with incredulity at Boris succeeding and they will also fail. Fail, fail, fail, epic fail.

    So to answer your question: no I don't think Boris will rat (or if he does it won't be seen as such)... :(
    What if he doesn't? What if he goes the sane route? What's the party going to do? Start sending letters to the 22?
    Good question, but I do not have an answer for you I'm afraid.
    I wish I could find that tweet which said: "can we just skip to the bit where the new leader realises they face exactly the same challenge as May."
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    algarkirk said:

    Respectfully disagree with this excellent and thoughtful article. As of now we are where we are. Conservatives have their usual jobs of being all the things Richard Nabavi mentions as its virtues. But how best to be it? Parliament is stymied by a combination of no majority, small groups at both extremes who have destroyed TM and an opposition which isn't there to help. Outside parliament it is threatened with apocalypse (see today's YouGov poll) from the Brexit party.

    The betting market shows that we are on for an election in 2019 as the most likely year. It is therefore essential as a first priority that the leader is a possible election winner. Without that they truly are sunk. To win an election this year it is essential to both present an attractive prospect, and equally essential to outflank the Brexit party.

    Whether or not that election happens before 31 Oct (by no means impossible) or after there is precisely nil evidence of another leader who could win it both against Lab, LDs and Brexit.

    As between Lab and Con it is pretty clear that the one will come first who has least split their centre right/ centre left vote. Boris gives the Tories a fighting chance.

    Thank you!

    Interesting dynamic for English electoral behaviour; but hardly works for Scotland, Wales or NI, does it?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    Richard, your piece was full of nothing but common-sense, a commodity so lacking amongst our political class that it stands out like a work of genius.

    Of course nothing changes if Boris becomes PM. The arithmetic is exactly the same. The EU is as unlikely to give way as ever. The choices remain the same - No Deal, Revoke, May's Deal, 2nd Ref, GE. None of them are any more palatable under Johnson than under May.

    Of the Leadership contenders, only Stewart has the cojones to say this. Nobody is listening to him.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    isam said:

    Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)

    Gove stopped Johnson in 2016, after EUref.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    On topic, I agree with Richard.

    For the Conservative Party to throw away their USP is madness.

    I expect Boris to rat and take the path of least resistance.

    What is the Conservative Party really for? I used to know that in the 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major (although I never supported them), and I still kind of get their (very niche) USP in Scotland. But what about England? Can anybody summarise the Con USP in one short paragraph? Important caveat: without mentioning Brexit.
    They're the only party that can keep Labour out.

    (EDIT: if the Labour-hating fraction of the electorate ever starts to believe that an alternative can do the job better, then it's goodnight Vienna)
    And we have a podium contender!!

    Correct: two sides of the same counterfeit coin. They cannot survive without each other. So, what happens now they’re both on the slide?
    Labour has the more solid, stickable and well-concentrated core vote, so is more likely to survive - but beyond that it's very hard to predict what will happen next.

    You can make a very good argument for the case that the next General Election is Boris Johnson's to lose: neutralise the Brexit Party by running on a no-deal platform, and win a majority against a heavily divided left (Corbyn as Marmite politician plus floundering on Brexit = a lot of trouble for Labour.) A bleed of Remainer votes from Labour to the Lib Dems should help the Tories win more Labour seats than they would lose to the Yellows.

    But we could just as easily end up with the four-party system suggested by recent polls, with the Tories getting smashed to pieces by the bleed of votes to Farage's lot and a Lib Dem surge in the more Remainian parts of Southern England, and a low but efficiently distributed Labour share letting them into power at the head of a left-leaning coalition, formal or otherwise.

    What comes next? Who can say for sure?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Nice piece by Richard, by the way.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If the Conservatives in their current form were to disappear, would they be missed?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    If the Conservatives in their current form were to disappear, would they be missed?

    Lib Dems, and to an extent UKIP/BXP or Farage for short, have shown that parties can come back from a period of irrelevance
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    The Tories are a funny bunch. The candidate who made the final last time doesn't get past the first round. Meanwhile the buffoon who declared himself unsuitable and withdrew before the off last time is the runaway leader.

    As far as I can see 'Nothing has Changed', but something must have.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .

    Only a few months ago Charlie Mullins said that "Bollocks-on-a-bus Boris" was running scared of a People's Vote. Today he backed him for PM...

    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep coming up with aphorisms that stick, and i :(
    viewcode said:

    nico67 said:

    If anyone can u turn to a second vote and sell it probably Bozo can .



    https://twitter.com/PimlicoPlumbers/status/1086337541203214336
    My ultra-Remain Tory voting client says the same.

    He was openly insulting Boris last year.
    I keep com. :(
    Or they think Boris will rat?

    It’s what I expect him to do. I’ve bet on a second referendum.
    So to answer your question: no I don't think Boris will rat (or if he does it won't be seen as such)... :(
    What if he doesn't? What if he goes the sane route? What's the party going to do? Start sending letters to the 22?
    Good question, but I do not have an answer for you I'm afraid.
    I wish I could find that tweet which said: "can we just skip to the bit where the new leader realises they face exactly the same challenge as May."
    Charisma helps. A lot of people say UKIP and BXP are just the same, but the former were disappearing without trace while the latter are ahead in the polls... the only reason is Farage
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Strange scenes on last nights This Week, was Michael Portillo, who has been criticial of Boris Johnson for 16 years, and cheered Michael Gove to the rafters for stopping him being PM in 2017, said Johnson by a landslide would be a great thing (The reason being a canddate winning by a landslide is better than a narrow win, he still thinks Boris is bad)

    Interesting, I missed the show last night.

    I think if Boris gets an immediate boost in the opinion polls he'll probably go for a snap election. But it would have to be a very big boost given the Tories are currently on 17%.
    I cant see The Brexit Party competing with Boris led Conservatives committed to an Oct 31 departure, and they are 26% of the latest opinion poll.
    It would certainly be a dilemma for Farage. I think lots of his supporters would prefer in a snap election to back Boris. So if the Brexit Party stands it risks denying Boris the majority he needs. At the same time, can Farage trust Boris? (a) to achieve a Hard Brexit majority and (b) to carry out No Deal.

    Lots of lovely drama still to come.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited June 2019
    Boris has two potential ways of ending the Brexit impasse, getting some of his new ERG rebel mates to vote through the withdrawal agreement by jazzing up the political declaration or winning a Tory majority during a snap election during his honeymoon period. He may fail at both of these but they seem a better bet than Rory Stewart getting opposition parties who have zero intention of voting for any form of Brexit on board.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Artist said:

    Boris has two potential ways of ending the Brexit impasse, getting some of his new ERG rebel mates to vote through the withdrawal agreement by jazzing up the political declaration or winning a Tory majority during a snap election during his honeymoon period. He may fail at both of these but they seem a better bet than Rory Stewart getting opposition parties who have zero intention of voting for any form of Brexit on board.

    Unless the new Tory MPs all join the ERG upon election!
This discussion has been closed.