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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

The landslide victory for Boris in the first round of the Tory leadership contest comes close by itself to assuring him of the outright win. Even at the 1/5 odds currently widely quoted, he’s still value.

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FrancisUrquhart

I see jezza is back on security services csnt be trusted conspiracy theory tack again.

Foxy

Second, like Boris in a snap election!

FrancisUrquhart

Tory party have taken leave of their senses. What they see in boris is beyond me.

The media hate him, remainers hate him, yet another posho in a climate where the public are more anti it than usual and is more damaged and dodgy than something out of del boys van.

tlg86

Foxy said:

Second, like Boris in a snap election!

As high as that?

asjohnstone

If the answer is Boris Johnson then it's time for a serious look for a different question

HYUFD

I am sorry but with the Tories now behind the Brexit Party in virtually every poll and Brexit still not delivered 3 years after the vote there is no point giving yet more lectures about how 'irresponsible' Boris is.

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'. If we do not leave the EU in October and the Leave vote is still not respected that very likely becomes fatal, with the Brexit Party permanently replacing the Tories as the main party of the right.

We must leave Deal or No Deal then and if Boris needs to win a general election to ensure that so be it, it is the height of complacency to assume otherwise. As the polling indicates Boris is the only Tory who can win a majority against Corbyn and Farage

StuartDickson

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

SquareRoot

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May was not appallingly incompetent.

Morris_Dancer

Might Raab, at 5, be value for fewest votes at the next round? He hasn't progressed much, and with the drop-outs it's entirely possible he stands still whilst others get a bit further ahead.

HYUFD

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see jezza is back on security services csnt be trusted conspiracy theory tack again.

Well, he's been taking money to spout Iranian propaganda for years. Even though the money's dried up maybe the habit is hard to break?

Oh, and the answer to the question in the thread header is 'chaos.'

DecrepitJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see jezza is back on security services csnt be trusted conspiracy theory tack again.

Corbyn is right. What is the point of MI5 if they are not rubbing out all the X's by Boris's name in the leadership election?

logical_song

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

... except for the 'Tory majority' bit.

StuartDickson

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

Full of inaccuracies and partial truths, but I’ll just quickly point out one: according to our very own expert Yokel, the DUP didn’t vote against the WA because of the backstop but rather because it was guaranteed to lose in the house. Some principles your buddies have! How much Magic Money Tree did they cost again?

StuartDickson

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Had the thought with all this about Parliament and proroguing..... would it be possible for a PM Johnson to visit the EU one morning for an emergency meeting (nothing said as to the purpose, just for 'talks') and there and then modify the Leaving date with the EU to later that night? .... Thus leaving it too late for Speaker Bercow and his cronies to do anything?

And there you have it folks: the Tory mentality in a nutshell: if you can’t win fair and square, cheat.

Viceroy must be taking notes from Ruthie.

FrancisUrquhart

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see jezza is back on security services csnt be trusted conspiracy theory tack again.

Well, he's been taking money to spout Iranian propaganda for years. Even though the money's dried up maybe the habit is hard to break?

Oh, and the answer to the question in the thread header is 'chaos.'

Enemy states useful idiot. It is more worrying than his failed 70s rehashed economic policies.

DecrepitJohnL

A good question, then what?

Boris is surrounded by people who are seeking to advance their own careers rather than his vision but he doesn’t seem to mind and we’re not clear what his vision is anyway -- as Mayor of London.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson

DecrepitJohnL

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

This explains Boris's lead. He has convinced Leavers he will crash out on halloween; remainers he will either have got a better deal or called an election.

Big_G_NorthWales

StuartDickson said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Had the thought with all this about Parliament and proroguing..... would it be possible for a PM Johnson to visit the EU one morning for an emergency meeting (nothing said as to the purpose, just for 'talks') and there and then modify the Leaving date with the EU to later that night? .... Thus leaving it too late for Speaker Bercow and his cronies to do anything?

And there you have it folks: the Tory mentality in a nutshell: if you can’t win fair and square, cheat.

Viceroy must be taking notes from Ruthie.

He is a ukipper masquarading as a conservative

DavidL

Most MPs have think Boris is an arse. Not Chris Grayling though. He thinks he is an elbow.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

Most MPs have think Boris is an arse. Not Chris Grayling though. He thinks he is an elbow.

Maybe Boris should rename his premiership the "twenty-minuters" ?

Foxy

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May appointed David Davis as Brexit minister and Boris Johnson to lead the FCO in the Brexit negotiations. They were supremely incompetent at the task, particularly because of their laziness and lack of preparation. PM Boris would be the same but worse.

DecrepitJohnL

Brexit, then what?

The frightening thing is so many Conservative MPs are under the impression that Brexit is the end of the process, rather than the start.

Theresa May's withdrawal agreement gave a two-year transition period to make a deal with the EU. Conservatives balked at the backstop, which would come into force only if no deal could be struck in that time or after an extension of that period.

Remarkably, these same MPs who insist that two years is not enough to conclude a deal, also believe that no deal is necessary or even desirable, or that one can be reached in a few days.

These MPs will soon choose our next prime minister, and too late discover they are wrong about Boris putting Brexit to bed. Negotiations will drag on for months or years, hobbled by a prime minister and ruling party that has given no thought at all to what Britain wants, let alone how to get it.

SquareRoot

Jeremy Corbyn.. so typical..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48645280

OldKingCole

To be fair, I think Conservative Central Office's correspondent might have a point. Nothing deal-like is going to get through the House at present, and Boris went hard at Gordon Brown for taking over without an election.
So he might decide to go for an election during what may well be a brief honeymoon. with the country and party, hoping to repair the electoral damage May did in 2017.
Whether it would work of course, or whether we'd have a mother zip-wire moment with him high, dry and helpless is another matter.

FrancisUrquhart

SquareRoot said:

Jeremy Corbyn.. so typical..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48645280

When jezza gets into power, he will declare the usa our enemy and our friends will be the likes of russia, iran and hamas. And still the cult think he is a lovely magic grandpa while massively anti trump in part because they think he is in bed with the russians.

Jonathan

The Tory party has gone mad. All its worst instincts have come to the fore, its better self a distant memory represented by a few alienated MPs and members. It has chosen a path of ideological purity over reality, for itself and the country, to an extent that Corbyn’s Labour is now the relatively pragmatic and conservative option.

DecrepitJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

SquareRoot said:

Jeremy Corbyn.. so typical..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48645280

When jezza gets into power, he will declare the usa our enemy and our friends will be the likes of russia, iran and hamas. And still the cult think he is a lovely magic grandpa while massively anti trump in part because they think he is in bed with the russians.

Are you saying the cult follows Jezza because he is in bed with the Russians, or are anti-Trump because The Donald is in bed with the Russians?

Jonathan

OldKingCole said:

To be fair, I think Conservative Central Office's correspondent might have a point. Nothing deal-like is going to get through the House at present, and Boris went hard at Gordon Brown for taking over without an election.
So he might decide to go for an election during what may well be a brief honeymoon. with the country and party, hoping to repair the electoral damage May did in 2017.
Whether it would work of course, or whether we'd have a mother zip-wire moment with him high, dry and helpless is another matter.

An early election definitely looks likely. A figleaf of a negotiation with Europe followed by an election for a 31 Oct no Deal departure. Brexit party stands aside MPs supporting no deal, Parliament neutralised in run up to 31 Oct. No need to prorogue when you can dissolve.

kjohnw

Does anyone know what the latest polling of Tory members is?

OblitusSumMe

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

Jonathan

kjohnw said:

Does anyone know what the latest polling of Tory members is?

The care home was closed due to flu, so a poll of Tory members was not possible.

IanB2

Morris_Dancer said:

Might Raab, at 5, be value for fewest votes at the next round? He hasn't progressed much, and with the drop-outs it's entirely possible he stands still whilst others get a bit further ahead.

Too much risk of clever-clever voting by the nutters for me

Jonathan

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

IanB2

OldKingCole said:

To be fair, I think Conservative Central Office's correspondent might have a point. Nothing deal-like is going to get through the House at present, and Boris went hard at Gordon Brown for taking over without an election.
So he might decide to go for an election during what may well be a brief honeymoon. with the country and party, hoping to repair the electoral damage May did in 2017.
Whether it would work of course, or whether we'd have a mother zip-wire moment with him high, dry and helpless is another matter.

One thing is for sure - with so much talk of a GE as his strategy, Boris will come under immediate media pressure to answer the question one way or the other, from end July. He wont be able credibly to keep people guessing until the autumn.

FrankBooth

Leaders are often the antithesis of their predecessor. So May and then Boris.

But are they so different after all? May was trying to appeal to different groups at different times i.e the Brexiteers and Remainers - Brexit means Brexit, we'll leave the single market, I'm determined to get a good deal, frictionless trade. Isn't Boris really just the same? He's drawing support from both sides. Telling them what they want to hear but not actually having a clear position of his own.

OblitusSumMe

StuartDickson said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Had the thought with all this about Parliament and proroguing..... would it be possible for a PM Johnson to visit the EU one morning for an emergency meeting (nothing said as to the purpose, just for 'talks') and there and then modify the Leaving date with the EU to later that night? .... Thus leaving it too late for Speaker Bercow and his cronies to do anything?

And there you have it folks: the Tory mentality in a nutshell: if you can’t win fair and square, cheat.

Viceroy must be taking notes from Ruthie.

It doesn't work anyway because exit day is set in legislation - that was a Leaver demand - and so would need amending, and that could be challenged by MPs.

FrankBooth

One thing I would say - it's nice to find myself in agreement with so many pb Tories I have spent years disagreeing with Richard Nab, DavidL, DavidH etc

Jonathan

FrankBooth said:

Leaders are often the antithesis of their predecessor. So May and then Boris.

But are they so different after all? May was trying to appeal to different groups at different times i.e the Brexiteers and Remainers - Brexit means Brexit, we'll leave the single market, I'm determined to get a good deal, frictionless trade. Isn't Boris really just the same? He's drawing support from both sides. Telling them what they want to hear but not actually having a clear position of his own.

The packaging and marketing are different, but the product is still the same shit sandwich.

algarkirk

Jonathan said:

OldKingCole said:

To be fair, I think Conservative Central Office's correspondent might have a point. Nothing deal-like is going to get through the House at present, and Boris went hard at Gordon Brown for taking over without an election.
So he might decide to go for an election during what may well be a brief honeymoon. with the country and party, hoping to repair the electoral damage May did in 2017.
Whether it would work of course, or whether we'd have a mother zip-wire moment with him high, dry and helpless is another matter.

An early election definitely looks likely. A figleaf of a negotiation with Europe followed by an election for a 31 Oct no Deal departure. Brexit party stands aside MPs supporting no deal, Parliament neutralised in run up to 31 Oct. No need to prorogue when you can dissolve.

An election running through the Oct 31 period would be interesting. That aside, Boris may well conclude that a VONC is inevitable so he may as well call an election (will Labour again play along for the majority needed - I think so) as soon as possible - like September.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B2, that's a legitimate concern. Boris' advantage is such I imagine he might try and spread votes to stop Rory (who might be his main concern) progressing.

It would explain why he's hiding instead of attending the first debate.

eristdoof

HYUFD said:

As the polling indicates Boris is the only Tory who can win a majority against Corbyn and Farage

Listen to this weeks PB-Podcast to find out "the polling" on this subject started off biassed, and was then extrapolated and twisted.

IanB2

OT I see the Standard reckons Chuka will take over from Vince in Twickenham, rather than fight Streatham.

Wulfrun_Phil

On thread.

"The bill may not be drawn tightly enough (May wasn't forced to accept the offer the EU put to her, for example)"

So the tactic of Remain is reduced to giving the EU carte blanche to impose whatever terms they like on us?

That phrase illustrates perfectly why we need a new PM such as Johnson who is genuinely prepared to do what the EU doesn't want the UK to do, namely to walk away from the table and leave on 31st October. Without the threat or the reality of that, the UK is never going to secure any credible offer from the EU before or after 31st October.

Jonathan

algarkirk said:

Jonathan said:

OldKingCole said:

To be fair, I think Conservative Central Office's correspondent might have a point. Nothing deal-like is going to get through the House at present, and Boris went hard at Gordon Brown for taking over without an election.
So he might decide to go for an election during what may well be a brief honeymoon. with the country and party, hoping to repair the electoral damage May did in 2017.
Whether it would work of course, or whether we'd have a mother zip-wire moment with him high, dry and helpless is another matter.

An early election definitely looks likely. A figleaf of a negotiation with Europe followed by an election for a 31 Oct no Deal departure. Brexit party stands aside MPs supporting no deal, Parliament neutralised in run up to 31 Oct. No need to prorogue when you can dissolve.

An election running through the Oct 31 period would be interesting. That aside, Boris may well conclude that a VONC is inevitable so he may as well call an election (will Labour again play along for the majority needed - I think so) as soon as possible - like September.

A long campaign would take out most of the run up to 31 Oct.

DecrepitJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

Might Raab, at 5, be value for fewest votes at the next round? He hasn't progressed much, and with the drop-outs it's entirely possible he stands still whilst others get a bit further ahead.

Good value but not a mortgage job because you are betting against dirty tricks tactical voting by team Boris to ensure Raab stays in, so that in the next and final rounds, Remain supporters have to hold their noses and vote for Boris against the headbanger Raab.

This is not tin foil paranoia. The tactic was used in previous leadership contests and is now almost a tradition.

ThomasNashe

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

What I find so appalling about this is the way it's so often phrased in terms of what is in the party's best interests rather than the country's. It's just unforgivable.

OblitusSumMe

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

IanB2

Boris Johnson has suggested that he will drop his longstanding opposition to a third runway at Heathrow if he becomes prime minister. The frontrunner to succeed Theresa May refused to reassure campaigners against the runway earlier this week that he would cancel the scheme.

Charles

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

Full of inaccuracies and partial truths, but I’ll just quickly point out one: according to our very own expert Yokel, the DUP didn’t vote against the WA because of the backstop but rather because it was guaranteed to lose in the house. Some principles your buddies have! How much Magic Money Tree did they cost again?

Nothing

(The funds aren’t paid while Stormont is suspended)

Charles

DavidL said:

Most MPs have think Boris is an arse. Not Chris Grayling though. He thinks he is an elbow.

😄

Charles

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May appointed David Davis as Brexit minister and Boris Johnson to lead the FCO in the Brexit negotiations. They were supremely incompetent at the task, particularly because of their laziness and lack of preparation. PM Boris would be the same but worse.

TBF to Boris, Brexit was explicitly excluded from his remit at the FCO

Jonathan

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is not going to win. He’s barely a Tory.

DecrepitJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

It would explain why he's hiding instead of attending the first debate.

Boris is ducking the debates because he is following Sir Humphrey:
https://youtu.be/G5P34nJzsaY

Charles

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SquareRoot said:

Jeremy Corbyn.. so typical..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48645280

When jezza gets into power, he will declare the usa our enemy and our friends will be the likes of russia, iran and hamas. And still the cult think he is a lovely magic grandpa while massively anti trump in part because they think he is in bed with the russians.

Are you saying the cult follows Jezza because he is in bed with the Russians, or are anti-Trump because The Donald is in bed with the Russians?

It’s a fair point

Jezza being aligned with the Russians is because he’s not afraid to speak truth to power

Trump being aligned to the Russians is because he’s an evil corrupt capitalist

I suppose it’s possible both could be correct but it’s still impressive cognitive dissonance

Charles

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

The difference is the EU was comfortable calling May’s bluff

Are you 100% sure that Boris wouldn’t pull both us and the EU over the edge?

Sean_F

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tory party have taken leave of their senses. What they see in boris is beyond me.

The media hate him, remainers hate him, yet another posho in a climate where the public are more anti it than usual and is more damaged and dodgy than something out of del boys van.

The issue is whether enough of the public in general hate him so that he can't win?

I don't think they do.

IanB2

Charles said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

Full of inaccuracies and partial truths, but I’ll just quickly point out one: according to our very own expert Yokel, the DUP didn’t vote against the WA because of the backstop but rather because it was guaranteed to lose in the house. Some principles your buddies have! How much Magic Money Tree did they cost again?

Nothing

(The funds aren’t paid while Stormont is suspended)

I think that only relates to the portion where Stormont has discretion?

OblitusSumMe

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is not going to win. He’s barely a Tory.

I don't think Stewart will win, but I think a sane Tory party would be seriously considering him.

FF43

The UK is unlikely to leave the EU on the 1st November. At most, path will be set by that date where the UK leaves a few months later.

Bruno Waterford, Times correspondent in Brussels reckons, the EU will move to a three month preparation for No Deal at that point, refusing to negotiate during that period.

That sounds plausible, but I suspect firstly that there will be a mounting sense of panic in the UK during that period and secondly the EU would negotiate if the UK sounded serious about accepting the backstop.

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1139443985196441600

IanB2

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Might Raab, at 5, be value for fewest votes at the next round? He hasn't progressed much, and with the drop-outs it's entirely possible he stands still whilst others get a bit further ahead.

Good value but not a mortgage job because you are betting against dirty tricks tactical voting by team Boris to ensure Raab stays in, so that in the next and final rounds, Remain supporters have to hold their noses and vote for Boris against the headbanger Raab.

This is not tin foil paranoia. The tactic was used in previous leadership contests and is now almost a tradition.

They do however risk the kickback that Boris's campaign is faltering whilst he hides in the cupboard.

Foxy

DecrepitJohnL said:

A good question, then what?

Boris is surrounded by people who are seeking to advance their own careers rather than his vision but he doesn’t seem to mind and we’re not clear what his vision is anyway -- as Mayor of London.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson

A good article, as so often by the New Yorker. The point of Boris's unhappy childhood in Brussels was new to me. It explains both his dislike of the place and also his own inability to sustain lasting relationships. The contrast between Livingstone's and Johnson's legacies as London mayors too. Red Ken is a deeply flawed person, but as an apparatchik actually achieved quite a lot for the city. Boris? not much apart from better comedy.

DecrepitJohnL

IanB2 said:

Boris Johnson has suggested that he will drop his longstanding opposition to a third runway at Heathrow if he becomes prime minister. The frontrunner to succeed Theresa May refused to reassure campaigners against the runway earlier this week that he would cancel the scheme.

See the Yes Minister clip posted earlier. Boris is to do nothing incisive or divisive; avoid anything controversial; express no firm opinion about anything at all.

(Am I right in thinking Michael Hestletine used the same episode's non-denial that he was running for leader?)

Charles

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

Full of inaccuracies and partial truths, but I’ll just quickly point out one: according to our very own expert Yokel, the DUP didn’t vote against the WA because of the backstop but rather because it was guaranteed to lose in the house. Some principles your buddies have! How much Magic Money Tree did they cost again?

Nothing

(The funds aren’t paid while Stormont is suspended)

I think that only relates to the portion where Stormont has discretion?

You may be right

rottenborough

Excellent header. I fear for this country now. The choice of PM seems to be Boris, Farage or Corbyn. Quite incredible. We have collectively taken leave of our senses.

IanB2

FF43 said:

The UK is unlikely to leave the EU on the 1st November. At most, path will be set by that date where the UK leaves a few months later.

Bruno Waterford, Times correspondent in Brussels reckons, the EU will move to a three month preparation for No Deal at that point, refusing to negotiate during that period.

That sounds plausible, but I suspect firstly that there will be a mounting sense of panic in the UK during that period and secondly the EU would negotiate if the UK sounded serious about accepting the backstop.

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1139443985196441600

Leaving byronic Mr Glenn with a good chance of winning his big bet....

Peter_the_Punter

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is not going to win. He’s barely a Tory.

I don't think Stewart will win, but I think a sane Tory party would be seriously considering him.

Why would it accept Stewart when it has persistently and consistently rejected Ken Clarke?

IanB2

rottenborough said:

Excellent header. I fear for this country now. The choice of PM seems to be Boris, Farage or Corbyn. Quite incredible. We have collectively taken leave of our senses.

We could still get all three in succession....

IanB2

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

Full of inaccuracies and partial truths, but I’ll just quickly point out one: according to our very own expert Yokel, the DUP didn’t vote against the WA because of the backstop but rather because it was guaranteed to lose in the house. Some principles your buddies have! How much Magic Money Tree did they cost again?

Nothing

(The funds aren’t paid while Stormont is suspended)

I think that only relates to the portion where Stormont has discretion?

You may be right

As I recall £1 bn was committed and another £500m for Stormont to spend

StuartDickson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Had the thought with all this about Parliament and proroguing..... would it be possible for a PM Johnson to visit the EU one morning for an emergency meeting (nothing said as to the purpose, just for 'talks') and there and then modify the Leaving date with the EU to later that night? .... Thus leaving it too late for Speaker Bercow and his cronies to do anything?

And there you have it folks: the Tory mentality in a nutshell: if you can’t win fair and square, cheat.

Viceroy must be taking notes from Ruthie.

He is a ukipper masquarading as a conservative

Yepp. I noted that he told us of his UKIP-voting past. Just another example of how entryism is destroying the Conservative Party from the inside out.

ThomasNashe

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is not going to win. He’s barely a Tory.

I don't think Stewart will win, but I think a sane Tory party would be seriously considering him.

Also, if they genuinely want Brexit he's the one most likely to deliver it. No deal simply strengthens the pro-EU forces by which every adverse consequence (and there will of course be many) becomes an argument for re-joining, which will eventually happen sans rebate and avec Euro.

DecrepitJohnL

FF43 said:

The UK is unlikely to leave the EU on the 1st November. At most, path will be set by that date where the UK leaves a few months later.

Bruno Waterford, Times correspondent in Brussels reckons, the EU will move to a three month preparation for No Deal at that point, refusing to negotiate during that period.

That sounds plausible, but I suspect firstly that there will be a mounting sense of panic in the UK during that period and secondly the EU would negotiate if the UK sounded serious about accepting the backstop.

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1139443985196441600

That would suit Boris by giving time for a general election on the theme of the dastardly Brussels bureaucrats, while avoiding his being blamed for a disastrous crash-out at the end of October.

malcolmg

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is crap and is going nowhere, what is it with PB fan boys , fantasising all the time.

ThomasNashe

rottenborough said:

Excellent header. I fear for this country now. The choice of PM seems to be Boris, Farage or Corbyn. Quite incredible. We have collectively taken leave of our senses.

We're looking into the abyss, and worse - don't appear to be able to stop ourselves from falling in.

eristdoof

malcolmg said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is crap and is going nowhere, what is it with PB fan boys , fantasising all the time.

They are all crap.

StuartDickson

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

Full of inaccuracies and partial truths, but I’ll just quickly point out one: according to our very own expert Yokel, the DUP didn’t vote against the WA because of the backstop but rather because it was guaranteed to lose in the house. Some principles your buddies have! How much Magic Money Tree did they cost again?

Nothing

(The funds aren’t paid while Stormont is suspended)

I think that only relates to the portion where Stormont has discretion?

You may be right

As I recall £1 bn was committed and another £500m for Stormont to spend

So, to date, the DUP bribe has cost taxpayers 1.5 billion. And what have the Tories got out of it? Bugger all. In fact worse than bugger all. The DUP deal may go down in history books as the beginning of the end of one of the world’s most successful political parties.

Peter_the_Punter

DecrepitJohnL said:

FF43 said:

The UK is unlikely to leave the EU on the 1st November. At most, path will be set by that date where the UK leaves a few months later.

Bruno Waterford, Times correspondent in Brussels reckons, the EU will move to a three month preparation for No Deal at that point, refusing to negotiate during that period.

That sounds plausible, but I suspect firstly that there will be a mounting sense of panic in the UK during that period and secondly the EU would negotiate if the UK sounded serious about accepting the backstop.

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1139443985196441600

That would suit Boris by giving time for a general election on the theme of the dastardly Brussels bureaucrats, while avoiding his being blamed for a disastrous crash-out at the end of October.

And just exactly how many Tory MPs would you expect to be left in the House after such an election?

Theuniondivvie

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is not going to win. He’s barely a Tory.

That's the odd thing, he's indubitably a Tory (1868-2016), just not 2016-?
Rory is an opium laced waft of the past, just not the illusory past that the Brexit loonballs hanker after.

DecrepitJohnL

malcolmg said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is crap and is going nowhere, what is it with PB fan boys , fantasising all the time.

Trouble is that if you follow Sherlock Holmes in eliminating the impossible, there is nothing left so you have to add everything back in again.

Jonathan

Charles said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

The difference is the EU was comfortable calling May’s bluff

Are you 100% sure that Boris wouldn’t pull both us and the EU over the edge?

Boris is perhaps easier to play. The only thing the EU has to do, is figure out what his ego desires, For all his stagecraft, Boris cares about Boris. Utterly reliable.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1139796138163343360

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1139640621994512385

Has Corbyn pointed the finger elsewhere?

rottenborough

Let's not forgot that Jezza has worked for Iranian state TV.

OblitusSumMe

Peter_the_Punter said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is not going to win. He’s barely a Tory.

I don't think Stewart will win, but I think a sane Tory party would be seriously considering him.

Why would it accept Stewart when it has persistently and consistently rejected Ken Clarke?

I might not believe in religion, but that doesn't mean I don't hold irrational beliefs.

One of those is that most people are mostly reasonable most of the time - and capable of changing themselves so as not to repeat previous mistakes. Tories can change.

eristdoof

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

A good question, then what?

Boris is surrounded by people who are seeking to advance their own careers rather than his vision but he doesn’t seem to mind and we’re not clear what his vision is anyway -- as Mayor of London.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson

A good article, as so often by the New Yorker. The point of Boris's unhappy childhood in Brussels was new to me. It explains both his dislike of the place and also his own inability to sustain lasting relationships. The contrast between Livingstone's and Johnson's legacies as London mayors too. Red Ken is a deeply flawed person, but as an apparatchik actually achieved quite a lot for the city. Boris? not much apart from better comedy.

The EU is not Brussels.

malcolmg

DecrepitJohnL said:

malcolmg said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is crap and is going nowhere, what is it with PB fan boys , fantasising all the time.

Trouble is that if you follow Sherlock Holmes in eliminating the impossible, there is nothing left so you have to add everything back in again.

We are doomed to the buffoon and chaos

rottenborough

So the FCO says it looks like Iranian attack, but Labour says no evidence.

StuartDickson

Theuniondivvie said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is not going to win. He’s barely a Tory.

That's the odd thing, he's indubitably a Tory (1868-2016), just not 2016-?
Rory is an opium laced waft of the past, just not the illusory past that the Brexit loonballs hanker after.

Stewart is a quintessential Tory. A classic Tory. A case-study Unionist.

Funny how his own tribe don’t even recognise him for what he is: one of them. Have they been putting stuff in the water down south?

IanB2

StuartDickson said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

Full of inaccuracies and partial truths, but I’ll just quickly point out one: according to our very own expert Yokel, the DUP didn’t vote against the WA because of the backstop but rather because it was guaranteed to lose in the house. Some principles your buddies have! How much Magic Money Tree did they cost again?

Nothing

(The funds aren’t paid while Stormont is suspended)

I think that only relates to the portion where Stormont has discretion?

You may be right

As I recall £1 bn was committed and another £500m for Stormont to spend

So, to date, the DUP bribe has cost taxpayers 1.5 billion. And what have the Tories got out of it? Bugger all. In fact worse than bugger all. The DUP deal may go down in history books as the beginning of the end of one of the world’s most successful political parties.

Overstating the DUP's track record, surely?

malcolmg

eristdoof said:

malcolmg said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is crap and is going nowhere, what is it with PB fan boys , fantasising all the time.

They are all crap.

Very true and he is not the crappiest, that is how bad it is.

DecrepitJohnL

Peter_the_Punter said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

FF43 said:

The UK is unlikely to leave the EU on the 1st November. At most, path will be set by that date where the UK leaves a few months later.

Bruno Waterford, Times correspondent in Brussels reckons, the EU will move to a three month preparation for No Deal at that point, refusing to negotiate during that period.

That sounds plausible, but I suspect firstly that there will be a mounting sense of panic in the UK during that period and secondly the EU would negotiate if the UK sounded serious about accepting the backstop.

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/status/1139443985196441600

That would suit Boris by giving time for a general election on the theme of the dastardly Brussels bureaucrats, while avoiding his being blamed for a disastrous crash-out at the end of October.

And just exactly how many Tory MPs would ou expect to be left in the House after such an election?

In their heads, a Boris-led anti-EU campaign would sideline Farage, and leave Remain voters split between Labour and the LibDems; a landslide for the Conservative Party.

And in one sense they might have a point because electoral prospects after Brexit will be a good deal worse after the paper cuts of 700 (per Cyclefree) lost deals.

Foxy

eristdoof said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

A good question, then what?

Boris is surrounded by people who are seeking to advance their own careers rather than his vision but he doesn’t seem to mind and we’re not clear what his vision is anyway -- as Mayor of London.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/24/the-empty-promise-of-boris-johnson

A good article, as so often by the New Yorker. The point of Boris's unhappy childhood in Brussels was new to me. It explains both his dislike of the place and also his own inability to sustain lasting relationships. The contrast between Livingstone's and Johnson's legacies as London mayors too. Red Ken is a deeply flawed person, but as an apparatchik actually achieved quite a lot for the city. Boris? not much apart from better comedy.

The EU is not Brussels.

Of course not, but it was the reason that Boris spent his childhood there.

IanB2

Don't miss R4 Dead Ringers this week!

StuartDickson

IanB2 said:

R4 seriously taking the p**s out of Boris (excerpt from Dead Ringers)

Dead Ringers alone is worth the licence fee. Almost.

They certainly have Boris and Gove spot on. And their David Davis was a work of beauty.

eristdoof

Charles said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

The difference is the EU was comfortable calling May’s bluff

Are you 100% sure that Boris wouldn’t pull both us and the EU over the edge?

The EU did not call May's bluff. It worked out a proposal with the UK government, and said "This is as far as we can go". That is normal negotiatgion.

OblitusSumMe

malcolmg said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is crap and is going nowhere, what is it with PB fan boys , fantasising all the time.

Much as I like Stewart for being willing to face reality, there's a certain irony in that my appreciation of his campaign is in part a way to tell a story to myself to avoid the impending reality of Boris Johnson PM. Storytelling can keep the cold at bay for a while at least.

noneoftheabove

I am no fan of either May or especially the DUP but never quite understood the fuss about NI getting a few extra quid. It is one of the poorest parts of the country and has more problems than any other part. Seems perfectly reasonable both for the local party there to lobby for their constituents and for the govt to provide additional funding.

Foxy

rottenborough said:

So the FCO says it looks like Iranian attack, but Labour says no evidence.

We should should keep clear. Joining Trump's new war would be a massive mistake.

Jonathan

Theuniondivvie said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Jonathan said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

The party already has had huge damage inflicted on it by extending in March after May promised for years Brexit would be delivered on time and 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal'.

This is true. The unanswered question is whether the error was not to Leave in March, or whether it was to have used the rhetoric earlier that made not doing so tremendously damaging.

You believe the former, which leads you logically to support Johnson. If the error was the latter then Johnson is simply repeating May's mistake, as Richard Nabavi has argued.

May went for blackmail and brinkmanship, gambled and lost. Boris is doing the same.

This makes Stewart the candidate willing to do something different - try to sell May's Deal on its merits, as the reasonable compromise.

Stewart is not going to win. He’s barely a Tory.

That's the odd thing, he's indubitably a Tory (1868-2016), just not 2016-?
Rory is an opium laced waft of the past, just not the illusory past that the Brexit loonballs hanker after.

He really isn’t a Tory. He diverts in three main ways. He has a social conscience, is a reformer and is comfortable abroad. Some says he even likes foreigners, enjoys travel and has a realistic view of Britain’s position in the world. Unforgivable.

SquareRoot

StuartDickson said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

The word “deals” in David’s article is the key here. After the appallingly incompetent May the UK desperately needs a PM with at least C-grade dealmaking abilities.

In Boris we are about to get another big fat “F” on our exam results. Nothing about his history indicates an ability to stretch out a hand and build mutual trust. Heck, according to Michael Gove the man cannot even remember a conversation the following day! How can you build a deal with a man whose brain just cannot store key information?

May got a Deal with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement but in a hung parliament Labour, the LDs and SNP will never back it because it is a 'Tory Brexit' as has been proved and neither will the DUP because of the backstop.

Therefore in reality the only way any Deal is going to pass the Commons under a Tory PM is with a Tory majority and with a Tory leader seen as enough of a Leaver to command the confidence of the ERG in terms of the future relationship. That means Boris and remember Boris did actually vote for the Withdrawal Agreement on MV3. He is not a Steve Baker or Mark Francois No Deal diehard, nor even the most hardline Brexiteer left in the race, that is Dominic Raab

Full of inaccuracies and partial truths, but I’ll just quickly point out one: according to our very own expert Yokel, the DUP didn’t vote against the WA because of the backstop but rather because it was guaranteed to lose in the house. Some principles your buddies have! How much Magic Money Tree did they cost again?

Nothing

(The funds aren’t paid while Stormont is suspended)

I think that only relates to the portion where Stormont has discretion?

You may be right

As I recall £1 bn was committed and another £500m for Stormont to spend

So, to date, the DUP bribe has cost taxpayers 1.5 billion. And what have the Tories got out of it? Bugger all. In fact worse than bugger all. The DUP deal may go down in history books as the beginning of the end of one of the world’s most successful political parties.

Is your middle name hyperbole?