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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real driver behind Johnson’s CON MP campaign has been Gavi

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real driver behind Johnson’s CON MP campaign has been Gavin Williamson, not Lynton Crosby

Marf cartoon first appeared after Williamson was sacked

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,833
    FIRST
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    A very well-argued thread: thank you.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,808
    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited June 15
    Good article, yes Williamson was crucial to getting over 100 MPs to vote for Boris last week, achieving clear 'shock and awe' in the way May did in 2016.

    However I think Crosby will become more important both once it reaches the members' vote and at the next general election in advising Boris as he did successfully in Boris' 2 Mayoral bids and in Cameron's 2015 election win
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    A very well-argued thread: thank you.

    I think that qualifies as faint praise.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    This supposes that Williamson will be happy with a Rasputin-like role for himself, rather than hankering after the throne. If he has a different view of his talents he may ask for a bigger Cabinet job and decide that his future is best served by leaking against his new boss.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673

    A very well-argued thread: thank you.

    I think that qualifies as faint praise.
    It was sincere praise.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,125
    O/T: We went to see a production of Shakespeare’s Cymbeline at the Hudson Valley Shakespeare Festival last night, and if the RSC or NT aren’t planning a Brexit-themed production of the play I’d be very surprised.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Are a large number of Tory MPs scared of tarantulas?

    Who would have thought it just a few weeks ago - Boris Johnson and Gavin Williamson running the country?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    Mega Lolz if Mrs M helps to vote down Boris's deal
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    Has Chuka defected to the Tories yet?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited June 15
    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 26 Labour or ex-Labour MPs who voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    A very well-argued thread: thank you.

    I think that qualifies as faint praise.
    It was sincere praise.
    Ok. Sincere, if faint, praise.

    But as a lawyer it is your trade to make a very good argument out of a weak or non-existent case. So I can understand how you appreciate the skill in others
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,825
    My contribution to the Maternal Boris focus group. I Whatsapped her for her thoughts on him. The response: He's lazy. All fat people are lazy. He reminds me of that blowhard Austrian your father ran over with the car in Trieste.

    (She is referring to a mid 80s family holiday accident )
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,829
    Thanks, that's an interesting and thought provoking read.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Something tells me that HY is neither deterred nor enlightened by the failure of prior predictions.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    Thanks, that's an interesting and thought provoking read.

    I find Richard Leonard “interesting” and certainly “thought-provoking”, but hardly persuasive.

    This is most definitely a Richard Leonard thread. A bit of a Z-lister.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,971
    Thanks for the thread, well worth reading.

    On a minor point of accuracy, Liam Fox is backing Hunt not Johnson.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Possibly because some Labour MPs in northern seats have seen the Brexit party win locally in the EU elections and are getting a bit concerned. The BXP didn't even exist in any real sense when the last MV was taken - now its topping some polls on 26%.

    They want to kill off the Brexit party as much as the Tories - the Tories by contrast are no threat locally to them. Not many of them but perhaps enough if Boris can bring over a few more from the ERG for a revised deal - if its available of course?

    Its possible!
  • Mum anecdote.

    My mum voted Conservative all of her life until 2013, 2014 and 2015, when she flipped to Ukip. Back to Tory in 2017. She's not very political, but having voted Leave in 2016 has to turn the television off now when she hears Grieve, Soubry, Lammy and Stewart. She voted Brexit Party in 2019.

    Boris will likely bring her back. If he delivers...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,829

    Thanks, that's an interesting and thought provoking read.

    I find Richard Leonard “interesting” and certainly “thought-provoking”, but hardly persuasive.

    This is most definitely a Richard Leonard thread. A bit of a Z-lister.
    I know there's general PB disdain for Williamson but he certainly seems effective in behind the scenes roles.

    It is perhaps another indictment of May's leadership that she moved him to a position he wasn't suited to.

    Boris, being idle but intelligent, might prove better at putting the square pegs in the square holes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,651
    Interesting piece - though I think JRM has been a supporter of Johnson for some time.

    I think the best politics changing event of recent years was Eric Joyce thumping someone in a Westminster bar.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,306
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    thanks KC for this interesting bit of kremlinology. The disgraced former defence secretary has a new role. Worth a punt for next chancellor?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520

    Mum anecdote.

    My mum voted Conservative all of her life until 2013, 2014 and 2015, when she flipped to Ukip. Back to Tory in 2017. She's not very political, but having voted Leave in 2016 has to turn the television off now when she hears Grieve, Soubry, Lammy and Stewart. She voted Brexit Party in 2019.

    Boris will likely bring her back. If he delivers...

    What does she have against Stewart, given that he's fanatically committed to delivering Brexit?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,971
    Williamson represents this neck of the woods. My sources in the South Staffs District Council offices tell me that he is commonly referred to as "Gavlar" there, with allusions to a supposed Teflon-derived material to which everything bounces off and nothing sticks. Or perhaps just with reference to Gavin and Stacey.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,306
    edited June 15
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
    I don't believe that many of them view the Brexit Party a serious threat to their seats in a GE - whatever Yougov might say. They will have noted the Peterborough by election result which saw the Brexit Party vote share fall from 37% to 29 % in the context of a turnout of 48% rather than 35% at the EU elections. A GE turnout of 65% - 70% would likely see the Brexit Party share there fall back to 20% at most.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 15

    Williamson represents this neck of the woods. My sources in the South Staffs District Council offices tell me that he is commonly referred to as "Gavlar" there, with allusions to a supposed Teflon-derived material to which everything bounces off and nothing sticks. Or perhaps just with reference to Gavin and Stacey.

    So if Williamson is Gavlar does that make Boris Stacey with his blonde locks?

    What I can be certain about is that Boris (Stacey) goes down well in Billericay!

    So who are Smithy and Nessa?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited June 15
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
    I don't believe that many of them view the Brexit Party a serious threat to their seats in a GE - whatever Yougov might say. They will have noted the Peterborough by election result which saw the Brexit Party vote share fall from 37% to 29 % in the context of a turnout of 48% rather than 35% at the EU elections. A GE turnout of 65% - 70% would likely see the Brexit Party share there fall back to 20% at most.
    They obviously do otherwise 27 of them would not have voted with the Government or abstained on blocking No Deal last week.

    Of course the Brexit Party was just 683 votes from winning Peterborough and there are plenty more Labour seats with higher Leave votes than Peterborough had
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited June 15

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    Thanks, that's an interesting and thought provoking read.

    I find Richard Leonard “interesting” and certainly “thought-provoking”, but hardly persuasive.

    This is most definitely a Richard Leonard thread. A bit of a Z-lister.
    I know there's general PB disdain for Williamson but he certainly seems effective in behind the scenes roles.

    It is perhaps another indictment of May's leadership that she moved him to a position he wasn't suited to.

    Boris, being idle but intelligent, might prove better at putting the square pegs in the square holes.
    Idle: accepted.

    But intelligent? According to Gove he has a memory like a sieve. How many intelligent people do you know who cannot remember an important conversation they had yesterday?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    edited June 15
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
    Ridiculous spin. We are at a different phase in the process now and are months away from the deadline.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,306
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
    I don't believe that many of them view the Brexit Party a serious threat to their seats in a GE - whatever Yougov might say. They will have noted the Peterborough by election result which saw the Brexit Party vote share fall from 37% to 29 % in the context of a turnout of 48% rather than 35% at the EU elections. A GE turnout of 65% - 70% would likely see the Brexit Party share there fall back to 20% at most.
    They obviously do otherwise 27 of them would not have voted with the Government or abstained on blocking No Deal last week.

    Of course the Brexit Party was just 683 votes from winning Peterborough and there are plenty more Labour seats with higher Leave votes than Peterborough had
    Some are committed Leavers - Hoey, Stringer etc - others feel honour bound by pledges given to their electorates and were abstaining long before the Brexit Party appeared on the scene. The by election also provided evidence that Brexit is far from being the all - consuming issue assumed by the commentariat despite the fact that it took place a mere two weeks beyond the EU election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited June 15

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
    Ridiculous spin. We are at a different phase in the process now and are months away from the deadline.
    Not ridiculous spin, the Brexit Party winning the vote in their seats has now concentrated the minds of almost 30 Labour and ex-Labour MPs from Leave seats to refuse to vote to block Brexit even if that means No Deal in October
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
    I don't believe that many of them view the Brexit Party a serious threat to their seats in a GE - whatever Yougov might say. They will have noted the Peterborough by election result which saw the Brexit Party vote share fall from 37% to 29 % in the context of a turnout of 48% rather than 35% at the EU elections. A GE turnout of 65% - 70% would likely see the Brexit Party share there fall back to 20% at most.
    They obviously do otherwise 27 of them would not have voted with the Government or abstained on blocking No Deal last week.

    Of course the Brexit Party was just 683 votes from winning Peterborough and there are plenty more Labour seats with higher Leave votes than Peterborough had
    Some are committed Leavers - Hoey, Stringer etc - others feel honour bound by pledges given to their electorates and were abstaining long before the Brexit Party appeared on the scene. The by election also provided evidence that Brexit is far from being the all - consuming issue assumed by the commentariat despite the fact that it took place a mere two weeks beyond the EU election.
    More the Tories did better than expected as many could see Boris coming round the corner costing the Brexit Party the seat, a few more Tory defections and it would have been a Brexit Party gain
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Good afternoon, comrades.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
    Ridiculous spin. We are at a different phase in the process now and are months away from the deadline.
    Not ridiculous spin, the Brexit Party winning the vote in their seats has now concentrated the minds of almost 30 Labour MPs from Leave seats to refuse to vote to block Brexit even if that means No Deal in October
    Why did more of them vote to refuse to block no deal in January, before the Brexit Party had launched?

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-01-29/division/E50A0F18-3569-4D75-8F23-590E560786DA/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Act2018?outputType=Party
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,395

    Thanks, that's an interesting and thought provoking read.

    I find Richard Leonard “interesting” and certainly “thought-provoking”, but hardly persuasive.

    This is most definitely a Richard Leonard thread. A bit of a Z-lister.
    I know there's general PB disdain for Williamson but he certainly seems effective in behind the scenes roles.

    It is perhaps another indictment of May's leadership that she moved him to a position he wasn't suited to.

    Boris, being idle but intelligent, might prove better at putting the square pegs in the square holes.
    Idle: accepted.

    But intelligent? According to Gove he has a memory like a sieve. How many intelligent people do you know who cannot remember an important conversation they had yesterday?
    1. How many books have you written?

    2. Einstein notoriously had a terrible memory.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,306
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
    I don't believe that many of them view the Brexit Party a serious threat to their seats in a GE - whatever Yougov might say. They will have noted the Peterborough by election result which saw the Brexit Party vote share fall from 37% to 29 % in the context of a turnout of 48% rather than 35% at the EU elections. A GE turnout of 65% - 70% would likely see the Brexit Party share there fall back to 20% at most.
    They obviously do otherwise 27 of them would not have voted with the Government or abstained on blocking No Deal last week.

    Of course the Brexit Party was just 683 votes from winning Peterborough and there are plenty more Labour seats with higher Leave votes than Peterborough had
    Some are committed Leavers - Hoey, Stringer etc - others feel honour bound by pledges given to their electorates and were abstaining long before the Brexit Party appeared on the scene. The by election also provided evidence that Brexit is far from being the all - consuming issue assumed by the commentariat despite the fact that it took place a mere two weeks beyond the EU election.
    More the Tories did better than expected as many could see Boris coming round the corner costing the Brexit Party the seat, a few more Tory defections and it would have been a Brexit Party gain
    The stronger Tory vote - which did not surprise me - also lends credence to Brexit not being the overriding issue at that election.Voters were also interested in other things.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132

    Thanks, that's an interesting and thought provoking read.

    I find Richard Leonard “interesting” and certainly “thought-provoking”, but hardly persuasive.

    This is most definitely a Richard Leonard thread. A bit of a Z-lister.
    I know there's general PB disdain for Williamson but he certainly seems effective in behind the scenes roles.

    It is perhaps another indictment of May's leadership that she moved him to a position he wasn't suited to.

    Boris, being idle but intelligent, might prove better at putting the square pegs in the square holes.
    Idle: accepted.

    But intelligent? According to Gove he has a memory like a sieve. How many intelligent people do you know who cannot remember an important conversation they had yesterday?
    He'll answer this tomorrow. Probably.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
    I don't believe that many of them view the Brexit Party a serious threat to their seats in a GE - whatever Yougov might say. They will have noted the Peterborough by election result which saw the Brexit Party vote share fall from 37% to 29 % in the context of a turnout of 48% rather than 35% at the EU elections. A GE turnout of 65% - 70% would likely see the Brexit Party share there fall back to 20% at most.
    They obviously do otherwise 27 of them would not have voted with the Government or abstained on blocking No Deal last week.

    Of course the Brexit Party was just 683 votes from winning Peterborough and there are plenty more Labour seats with higher Leave votes than Peterborough had
    Some are committed Leavers - Hoey, Stringer etc - others feel honour bound by pledges given to their electorates and were abstaining long before the Brexit Party appeared on the scene. The by election also provided evidence that Brexit is far from being the all - consuming issue assumed by the commentariat despite the fact that it took place a mere two weeks beyond the EU election.
    More the Tories did better than expected as many could see Boris coming round the corner costing the Brexit Party the seat, a few more Tory defections and it would have been a Brexit Party gain
    The stronger Tory vote - which did not surprise me - also lends credence to Brexit not being the overriding issue at that election.Voters were also interested in other things.
    No, it was because the Tory candidate Paul Bristow is a staunch Leaver and good campaigner
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 15
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
    I don't believe that many of them view the Brexit Party a serious threat to their seats in a GE - whatever Yougov might say. They will have noted the Peterborough by election result which saw the Brexit Party vote share fall from 37% to 29 % in the context of a turnout of 48% rather than 35% at the EU elections. A GE turnout of 65% - 70% would likely see the Brexit Party share there fall back to 20% at most.
    What was notable about the European elections was that Labour's vote held up strongly in London and areas with relatively large BAME populations including outer London areas that voted leave. It was the white middle classes - for the LDs and Greens - and working classes - for the Brexit party - that seemingly deserted them. Labour also appeared to do a good job of getting its BAME vote out in Peterborough and had a pretty good push to get 3,000 postal votes in.

    Of course a 17% drop compared to the general election is no concern.

    But in parts of the north - the issues some Labour MPs face is rather different.

    Anything that makes Farage and the Brexit party disappears is good for them.

    PS I think you are comparing the Peterborough local authority results for the EU elections with the Peterborough constituency. The former is larger and includes nine more rural Tory learning and no doubt Brexit party sympathetic areas. So the two numbers aren't comparable - as Peterborough as a council area is seemingly more pro leave than the Peterborough constituency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
    Ridiculous spin. We are at a different phase in the process now and are months away from the deadline.
    Not ridiculous spin, the Brexit Party winning the vote in their seats has now concentrated the minds of almost 30 Labour MPs from Leave seats to refuse to vote to block Brexit even if that means No Deal in October
    Why did more of them vote to refuse to block no deal in January, before the Brexit Party had launched?

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-01-29/division/E50A0F18-3569-4D75-8F23-590E560786DA/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Act2018?outputType=Party
    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,470
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
    Ridiculous spin. We are at a different phase in the process now and are months away from the deadline.
    Not ridiculous spin, the Brexit Party winning the vote in their seats has now concentrated the minds of almost 30 Labour and ex-Labour MPs from Leave seats to refuse to vote to block Brexit even if that means No Deal in October
    Any Labour MP who waves through a no deal should be immediately deselected . No ifs or buts . As for the Labour motion that was defeated , that failed because it came in the middle of the leadership challenge , some Tory MPs would find it easier to support a cross party motion and some felt they needed to wait to see how future negotiations went.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson
    Chancellor - Chris Grayling
    Foreign Secretary - Ester McVey
    Home Secretary - Mark Francois
    Chief Sec Treasury - Liz Truss
    Defence - Graham Norton
    Health - Peter Bone
    BREXIT - Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Justice - Fiona Onasanya,
    Business - Lord Sugar
    International Trade - David Dickinson
    Work and Pensions - Sir Philip Green
    Education - Tyson Fury
    Environment - Bill Oddie
    Housing & Communities - Owen Patterson
    Transport - Jeremy Clarkson
    Culture Media & Sport - Jo Brand
    Scotland - Billy Connolly
    N. Ireland - Arlene Foster
    Wales - Aled Jones
    House of Lords - Viscount John O'Reilly of Hersham
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,306
    brendan16 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    Indeed - I would also expect those Labour MPs to be a good deal less inclined to give Boris a helping hand than was the case re-May.
    They are not concerned with helping a Tory PM, they are concerned to avoid losing their seats to the Brexit Party
    I don't believe that many of them view the Brexit Party a serious threat to their seats in a GE - whatever Yougov might say. They will have noted the Peterborough by election result which saw the Brexit Party vote share fall from 37% to 29 % in the context of a turnout of 48% rather than 35% at the EU elections. A GE turnout of 65% - 70% would likely see the Brexit Party share there fall back to 20% at most.
    What was notable about the European elections was that Labour's vote held up strongly in London and areas with relatively large BAME populations including outer London areas that voted leave. It was the white middle classes - for the LDs and Greens - and working classes - for the Brexit party - that seemingly deserted them. Labour also appeared to do a good job of getting its BAME vote out in Peterborough and had a pretty good push to get 3,000 postal votes in.

    Of course a 17% drop compared to the general election is no concern.

    But in parts of the north - the issues some Labour MPs face is rather different.

    PS I think you are comparing the Peterborough local authority results for the EU elections with the Peterborough constituency. The former is larger and includes nine more rural Tory learning and no doubt Brexit party sympathetic areas. So the two numbers aren't comparable - as Peterborough as a council area is seemingly more pro leave than the Peterborough constituency.
    No - I am fully aware that the boundaries do not coincide. Labour's vote share in the Peterborough Council area on 23rd May was 17%/18% - and estimated to be 22% in the Peterborough constituency. Nevertheless Labour polled 31% on 6th June. The 17% drop in Labour's vote share - and the 25% drop in the Tory share - is a bit misleading in that there was no Brexit or UKIP - or indeed Green - candidate in 2017. Had those parties contested the seat two years ago , the Labour and Tory vote shares would have been lower.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,470
    There are at least 20 backbench Tories who are totally against no deal . There are also some in the cabinet and lower level ministers who are in the same boat .

    Also some Labour MPs were paired and had to abstain .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
    Of course it does, there has been a rise of 17 in the number of Labour or ex Labour MPs refusing to vote to block No Deal since such a motion was last put to the Commons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
    Ridiculous spin. We are at a different phase in the process now and are months away from the deadline.
    Not ridiculous spin, the Brexit Party winning the vote in their seats has now concentrated the minds of almost 30 Labour and ex-Labour MPs from Leave seats to refuse to vote to block Brexit even if that means No Deal in October
    Any Labour MP who waves through a no deal should be immediately deselected . No ifs or buts . As for the Labour motion that was defeated , that failed because it came in the middle of the leadership challenge , some Tory MPs would find it easier to support a cross party motion and some felt they needed to wait to see how future negotiations went.

    They can be deselected but they still would stay MPs until a general election.

    The 10 Tory MPs who voted with Labour ie Lee, Spelman, Grieve, Gyimah etc are the same as have always voted to block No Deal and that had little to do with the leadership
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 533
    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson
    Chancellor - Chris Grayling
    Foreign Secretary - Ester McVey
    Home Secretary - Mark Francois
    Chief Sec Treasury - Liz Truss
    Defence - Graham Norton
    Health - Peter Bone
    BREXIT - Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Justice - Fiona Onasanya,
    Business - Lord Sugar
    International Trade - David Dickinson
    Work and Pensions - Sir Philip Green
    Education - Tyson Fury
    Environment - Bill Oddie
    Housing & Communities - Owen Patterson
    Transport - Jeremy Clarkson
    Culture Media & Sport - Jo Brand
    Scotland - Billy Connolly
    N. Ireland - Arlene Foster
    Wales - Aled Jones
    House of Lords - Viscount John O'Reilly of Hersham

    Chris Froome for Transport, shurely.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,306
    edited June 15
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
    Ridiculous spin. We are at a different phase in the process now and are months away from the deadline.

    Any Labour MP who waves through a no deal should be immediately deselected . No ifs or buts . As for the Labour motion that was defeated , that failed because it came in the middle of the leadership challenge , some Tory MPs would find it easier to support a cross party motion and some felt they needed to wait to see how future negotiations went.

    I disagree. The pro-Common Market Labour MPs who helped Heath in the Autumn 1971 vote by rebelling against the Whip were not deselected - with the sole exception of Dick Taverne at Lincoln. Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen, Roy Hattersley, John Smith and over 60 others were not disciplined - indeed Jenkins carried on as Deputy Leader!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
    Of course it does, there has been a rise of 17 in the number of Labour or ex Labour MPs refusing to vote to block No Deal since such a motion was last put to the Commons
    You can't count paired abstentions as "people refusing to vote" and the context is different as No Deal isn't just around the corner.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
    Of course it does, there has been a rise of 17 in the number of Labour or ex Labour MPs refusing to vote to block No Deal since such a motion was last put to the Commons
    You can't count paired abstentions as "people refusing to vote" and the context is different as No Deal isn't just around the corner.
    Last week's vote was as even Oliver Letwin admitted probably the last chance to ensure the Commons could pass legislation to block No Deal in October, thanks to the votes of those Labour rebels it failed
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,521
    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson
    Chancellor - Chris Grayling
    Foreign Secretary - Ester McVey
    Home Secretary - Mark Francois
    Chief Sec Treasury - Liz Truss
    Defence - Graham Norton
    Health - Peter Bone
    BREXIT - Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Justice - Fiona Onasanya,
    Business - Lord Sugar
    International Trade - David Dickinson
    Work and Pensions - Sir Philip Green
    Education - Tyson Fury
    Environment - Bill Oddie
    Housing & Communities - Owen Patterson
    Transport - Jeremy Clarkson
    Culture Media & Sport - Jo Brand
    Scotland - Billy Connolly
    N. Ireland - Arlene Foster
    Wales - Aled Jones
    House of Lords - Viscount John O'Reilly of Hersham

    I’m 100% Backing Boris in the national interest and would earnestly commend all Conservative members to do the same. (Will you be one of my sponsors when taking the oath?)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,089
    One might be tempted to say things can only get better. Yet I suspect most of us are expecting them to get a good deal (no pun) worse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson
    Chancellor - Chris Grayling
    Foreign Secretary - Ester McVey
    Home Secretary - Mark Francois
    Chief Sec Treasury - Liz Truss
    Defence - Graham Norton
    Health - Peter Bone
    BREXIT - Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Justice - Fiona Onasanya,
    Business - Lord Sugar
    International Trade - David Dickinson
    Work and Pensions - Sir Philip Green
    Education - Tyson Fury
    Environment - Bill Oddie
    Housing & Communities - Owen Patterson
    Transport - Jeremy Clarkson
    Culture Media & Sport - Jo Brand
    Scotland - Billy Connolly
    N. Ireland - Arlene Foster
    Wales - Aled Jones
    House of Lords - Viscount John O'Reilly of Hersham

    I’m 100% Backing Boris in the national interest and would earnestly commend all Conservative members to do the same. (Will you be one of my sponsors when taking the oath?)
    Settling for a viscountcy? :p
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
    Of course it does, there has been a rise of 17 in the number of Labour or ex Labour MPs refusing to vote to block No Deal since such a motion was last put to the Commons
    You can't count paired abstentions as "people refusing to vote" and the context is different as No Deal isn't just around the corner.
    Last week's vote was as even Oliver Letwin admitted probably the last chance to ensure the Commons could pass legislation to block No Deal in October, thanks to the votes of those Labour rebels it failed
    Do you believe him?
  • Thanks for all your comments on the thread, even Stuart Dickson :)

    Foxy, re Williamson being Chancellor, I suspect not because I think he is the type that could easily make gaffes and, to his credit, I suspect he knows this. Ironically, if he did get the Chancellorship, I would almost see it as Boris giving him a poison chalice.

    Obitus, similar answer to your question - I do think Williamson wants to become PM but I think he realises the Tories need someone with a personality as a leader now and so he wouldn't be suited. He's young, he can wait for the mood of the country to change.

    JackW - I did have a think, funnily enough, about a Johnson cabinet. Not sure many of our choices, mmm, overlap but I will put in a separate post...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,971
    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson

    I thought you might be serious until I read beyond this.

    If there is a market for Brexit Secretary under Johnson, I would expect to get very short odds that Dominic Raab will resume his previous role, but this time without the hindrance of being undermined by his boss.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,089

    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson

    I thought you might be serious until I read beyond this.

    If there is a market for Brexit Secretary under Johnson, I would expect to get very short odds that Dominic Raab will resume his previous role, but this time without the hindrance of being undermined by his boss.
    And with the knowledge that Dover is quite a significant crossing point?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
    Of course it does, there has been a rise of 17 in the number of Labour or ex Labour MPs refusing to vote to block No Deal since such a motion was last put to the Commons
    You can't count paired abstentions as "people refusing to vote" and the context is different as No Deal isn't just around the corner.
    Last week's vote was as even Oliver Letwin admitted probably the last chance to ensure the Commons could pass legislation to block No Deal in October, thanks to the votes of those Labour rebels it failed
    Do you believe him?
    Yes as unless the Withdrawal Agreement is put forward again there will be nothing to amend to try and get further extension given the Commons has already voted for Article 50 (and assuming Macron does not veto further extension anyway). The Withdrawal Agreement would only be put forward again if the backstop had been removed or had a time limit put forward by the EU, for as the Brady amendment showed there is a narrow majority for that with DUP and ERG support.

    Otherwise No Deal it will be in October (though I think Boris would call a snap general election to be held by the end of October if he cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement renegotiated to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    So, Boris will be PM and will win a GE then? Glad we cleared that up. I'm not entirely convinced.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132

    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson

    I thought you might be serious until I read beyond this.

    If there is a market for Brexit Secretary under Johnson, I would expect to get very short odds that Dominic Raab will resume his previous role, but this time without the hindrance of being undermined by his boss.
    But what about his ability?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    Truss has already been promised Chancellor by BJ
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377
    Foxy said:

    thanks KC for this interesting bit of kremlinology. The disgraced former defence secretary has a new role. Worth a punt for next chancellor?

    Think that will be Liz Truss.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213
    Thought for the Day:

    "Section 11(1) and Schedule 1 of the Act provide that specified government bodies can be prosecuted for Corporate Manslaughter. The statute provides an exception to the general rule that a crown body cannot be prosecuted for a criminal offence (see section 40 of the Crown Proceedings Act 1947).
    Schedule 1 lists the government bodies to which the offence applies. It includes the major departments of central government such as the Department of Health, Department for Education, DEFRA, Ministry of Defence and the Home Office, as well as the Welsh Government.
    Section 16 contains provisions which identify the relevant body to prosecute where functions have been transferred from one public body to another since the date of the offence."
    https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/corporate-manslaughter
  • Streeter said:

    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson
    Chancellor - Chris Grayling
    Foreign Secretary - Ester McVey
    Home Secretary - Mark Francois
    Chief Sec Treasury - Liz Truss
    Defence - Graham Norton
    Health - Peter Bone
    BREXIT - Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Justice - Fiona Onasanya,
    Business - Lord Sugar
    International Trade - David Dickinson
    Work and Pensions - Sir Philip Green
    Education - Tyson Fury
    Environment - Bill Oddie
    Housing & Communities - Owen Patterson
    Transport - Jeremy Clarkson
    Culture Media & Sport - Jo Brand
    Scotland - Billy Connolly
    N. Ireland - Arlene Foster
    Wales - Aled Jones
    House of Lords - Viscount John O'Reilly of Hersham

    Chris Froome for Transport, shurely.
    Thoughts on a Boris Cabinet.

    First, he is in a lucky position where he can get rid of a fair few people either because they are May loyalists, have little support and / or in trouble in the party. So, for various reasons, you would expect to see the backs of Hammond / Lidlington / Gauke / Clark / Bradley / Brokenshire / Green / Grayling / Stride and a few others. I think Penny Mourdant could also be at risk - she's backed Hunt but I think she will be viewed as a busted flush having not gone for the PM-ship. Fox might also be a casualty.

    Second, I would expect his rivals to stay in his post. They have all done reasonable jobs, it stops them being on the back benches and there is no reason to shift them. So Hunt, Javid and Hancock to stay. Gove is the interesting one. He has been a success at DEFRA, I suspect it will be down to whether he can stomach having Boris as his boss. I can also see him bringing in McVey and Stewart - McVey in a sort of Communities role to help boost left behind towns (and provide a counterweight to Boris' Etonian background), Stewart in some undetermined area around the Union.

    Raab would be the more interesting question. I could see him as a possible next Chancellor - I think it will be between him and Truss for the post, with their low tax ideas appealing to the base. Both have their issues with promoting a low tax agenda that will be criticised - Raab comes across as lacking in warmth,, Truss is gaffe-prone. Raab would probably be the better choice but I suspect Boris willl like being the first PM to have a woman as Chancellor.

    Who else could come into the Cabinet. Priti Patel might come back either as IDS (and cut the budget) or Defence Secretary, if Penny goes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377
    edited June 15
    GIN1138 said:

    Has Chuka defected to the Tories yet?

    Not a chance of that. It would make him look utterly ridiculous.

    The word is he's eyeing up Plaid Cymru.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,746

    Streeter said:

    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson
    Chancellor - Chris Grayling
    Foreign Secretary - Ester McVey
    Home Secretary - Mark Francois
    Chief Sec Treasury - Liz Truss
    Defence - Graham Norton
    Health - Peter Bone
    BREXIT - Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Justice - Fiona Onasanya,
    Business - Lord Sugar
    International Trade - David Dickinson
    Work and Pensions - Sir Philip Green
    Education - Tyson Fury
    Environment - Bill Oddie
    Housing & Communities - Owen Patterson
    Transport - Jeremy Clarkson
    Culture Media & Sport - Jo Brand
    Scotland - Billy Connolly
    N. Ireland - Arlene Foster
    Wales - Aled Jones
    House of Lords - Viscount John O'Reilly of Hersham

    Chris Froome for Transport, shurely.
    Thoughts on a Boris Cabinet.


    Raab would be the more interesting question. I could see him as a possible next Chancellor - I think it will be between him and Truss for the post, with their low tax ideas appealing to the base. Both have their issues with promoting a low tax agenda that will be criticised - Raab comes across as lacking in warmth,, Truss is gaffe-prone. Raab would probably be the better choice but I suspect Boris willl like being the first PM to have a woman as Chancellor.

    Who else could come into the Cabinet. Priti Patel might come back either as IDS (and cut the budget) or Defence Secretary, if Penny goes.
    I think James Cleverly will get a Cabinet position with Malthouse a possibility.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
    Of course it does, there has been a rise of 17 in the number of Labour or ex Labour MPs refusing to vote to block No Deal since such a motion was last put to the Commons
    You can't count paired abstentions as "people refusing to vote" and the context is different as No Deal isn't just around the corner.
    Last week's vote was as even Oliver Letwin admitted probably the last chance to ensure the Commons could pass legislation to block No Deal in October, thanks to the votes of those Labour rebels it failed
    Do you believe him?
    Yes as unless the Withdrawal Agreement is put forward again there will be nothing to amend to try and get further extension...
    And Bercow will do nothing to facilitate it?
  • Streeter said:

    JackW said:

    It's a tad difficult to see Gavin Williamson as some Borgiaesque mastermind, although if all he had to do was keep Boris locked up in a closet for 23 hours a day I suppose he might manage that. Of course only if Gavin hadn't entrusted the keys to Chris Grayling !!

    So let's look at the Boris Administration - A cabinet of all the talents :

    Prime Minister - Boris Johnson
    Deputy PM FSoS - Gavin Williamson
    Chancellor - Chris Grayling
    Foreign Secretary - Ester McVey
    Home Secretary - Mark Francois
    Chief Sec Treasury - Liz Truss
    Defence - Graham Norton
    Health - Peter Bone
    BREXIT - Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Justice - Fiona Onasanya,
    Business - Lord Sugar
    International Trade - David Dickinson
    Work and Pensions - Sir Philip Green
    Education - Tyson Fury
    Environment - Bill Oddie
    Housing & Communities - Owen Patterson
    Transport - Jeremy Clarkson
    Culture Media & Sport - Jo Brand
    Scotland - Billy Connolly
    N. Ireland - Arlene Foster
    Wales - Aled Jones
    House of Lords - Viscount John O'Reilly of Hersham

    Chris Froome for Transport, shurely.
    Thoughts on a Boris Cabinet.


    Raab would be the more interesting question. I could see him as a possible next Chancellor - I think it will be between him and Truss for the post, with their low tax ideas appealing to the base. Both have their issues with promoting a low tax agenda that will be criticised - Raab comes across as lacking in warmth,, Truss is gaffe-prone. Raab would probably be the better choice but I suspect Boris willl like being the first PM to have a woman as Chancellor.

    Who else could come into the Cabinet. Priti Patel might come back either as IDS (and cut the budget) or Defence Secretary, if Penny goes.
    I think James Cleverly will get a Cabinet position with Malthouse a possibility.
    Yes, thanks Ralph. I sort out of ran out of steam at the last paragraph but I that is right, Possibly Mark Harper back in (as Chief Whip)
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,767
    edited June 15
    >I think Boris has done phenomenonally well to get the ERG on board.

    Has he really though? Seems like the portion of the GOP supporting Trump while he delivers judges ........ for as long as he's useful.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    I think Boris has done phenomenonally well to get the ERG on board.

    Heaven knows why they trust him, though, and I suspect it won't last.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
    Of course it does, there has been a rise of 17 in the number of Labour or ex Labour MPs refusing to vote to block No Deal since such a motion was last put to the Commons
    You can't count paired abstentions as "people refusing to vote" and the context is different as No Deal isn't just around the corner.
    Last week's vote was as even Oliver Letwin admitted probably the last chance to ensure the Commons could pass legislation to block No Deal in October, thanks to the votes of those Labour rebels it failed
    Do you believe him?
    Yes as unless the Withdrawal Agreement is put forward again there will be nothing to amend to try and get further extension given the Commons has already voted for Article 50 (and assuming Macron does not veto further extension anyway). The Withdrawal Agreement would only be put forward again if the backstop had been removed or had a time limit put forward by the EU, for as the Brady amendment showed there is a narrow majority for that with DUP and ERG support.

    Otherwise No Deal it will be in October (though I think Boris would call a snap general election to be held by the end of October if he cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement renegotiated to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal)
    What would the mandate be for again? "Deal or No Deal"?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520

    I think Boris has done phenomenonally well to get the ERG on board.

    Heaven knows why they trust him, though, and I suspect it won't last.

    Perhaps they subconsciously crave betrayal.

    "You knew damn well I was a snake before you brought me in."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377

    Mum anecdote.

    My mum voted Conservative all of her life until 2013, 2014 and 2015, when she flipped to Ukip. Back to Tory in 2017. She's not very political, but having voted Leave in 2016 has to turn the television off now when she hears Grieve, Soubry, Lammy and Stewart. She voted Brexit Party in 2019.

    Boris will likely bring her back. If he delivers...

    I would argue that if your mum has to turn off the TV whenever it features politicians whose views are anathema to her then she is VERY political.

    Mine OTOH genuinely does have zero interest in politics. Too busy watching reruns of Midsomer Murders. The old ones with John Nettles. Doesn't like the new guy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    27 Labour or ex Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal last week, only 10 Labour MPs refused to vote to block No Deal when Cooper Letwin passed in April

    https://labourlist.org/2019/01/yvette-cooper-move-to-block-no-deal-passes-by-7-votes/

    Your article is talking about a different motion entirely. Regardless of how you spin it, the vote this week does not show any pro-No Deal shift among Labour MPs.
    Of course it does, there has been a rise of 17 in the number of Labour or ex Labour MPs refusing to vote to block No Deal since such a motion was last put to the Commons
    You can't count paired abstentions as "people refusing to vote" and the context is different as No Deal isn't just around the corner.
    Last week's vote was as even Oliver Letwin admitted probably the last chance to ensure the Commons could pass legislation to block No Deal in October, thanks to the votes of those Labour rebels it failed
    Do you believe him?
    Yes as unless the Withdrawal Agreement is put forward again there will be nothing to amend to try and get further extension given the Commons has already voted for Article 50 (and assuming Macron does not veto further extension anyway). The Withdrawal Agreement would only be put forward again if the backstop had been removed or had a time limit put forward by the EU, for as the Brady amendment showed there is a narrow majority for that with DUP and ERG support.

    Otherwise No Deal it will be in October (though I think Boris would call a snap general election to be held by the end of October if he cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement renegotiated to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal)
    And how long will this 'no deal' last for?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    Sort of on topic another historical moment was Queen Elizabeth I failing to marry and have children.

    Had she done so we'd never have had the Stuarts, the Civil War, there'd have been no glorious revolution and we'd have dodged the Hanoverians too.

    She was what a successful Theresa May looks like. With leadership skills.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182

    I think Boris has done phenomenonally well to get the ERG on board.

    Heaven knows why they trust him, though, and I suspect it won't last.

    Perhaps they subconsciously crave betrayal.

    "You knew damn well I was a snake before you brought me in."
    I think some of them do.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377
    edited June 15

    Perhaps they subconsciously crave betrayal.

    "You knew damn well I was a snake before you brought me in."

    Certainly he will be bottling out of No Deal. Don't see the snap GE or Ref2 either.

    I wonder if he can re-badge the May Deal and get it through?

    If he can it will be a joke and a scandal - and also a triumph and a great service to the nation.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 497
    Personally, I'm looking forward to the Big Boris Tax Cut (wait, am I allowed to say that?). Simply the fact that a Conservative Government might stop constantly raising taxes will be a pleasant novelty for me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,881
    It would also be a fitting summary of Theresa May's reign that she has smoothed the path for her successor to pass a rejigged version of the WA which she couldn't pass.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,285
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting, though I don't know how far Williamson would get with changing the WA. However, I do concede that the government was a lot more disciplined when he was chief whip, and with him in that role the WA might even have got across the line at the second or third time of asking.

    What was interesting last week was the 21 Labour MPs who voted with the Government to stop attempts to block No Deal, they could now be pivotal to getting the WA over the line if Boris and Williamson can shore up the ERG to vote for it by being sound on the future relationship and ruling out even a temporary CU for GB, perhaps even if the DUP still refuse to vote for it because of the backstop for NI
    Haven't you predicted massive Labour backing of the Deal at the last 3 failed votes? Why would that change now? After all, the No Deal threat was at its height then.
    No need to predict, we have already seen the votes or abstentions, 27 Labour or ex-Labour MPs voted with the Government or abstained on attempts to block No Deal last week, almost all of them from Northern, Welsh or Midlands Leave voting seats.

    No doubt the Brexit Party topping the poll in their areas in the European elections has concentrated their minds
    Cooper-Boles was defeated 321-298 in January, and the equivalent Labour motion lost 309-298 this week - exactly the same number of votes in favour. That's not an indication of parliament going soft on no deal.
    Cooper-Letwin passed 313-312 in April, that support has now collapsed.
    Ridiculous spin. We are at a different phase in the process now and are months away from the deadline.
    Not ridiculous spin, the Brexit Party winning the vote in their seats has now concentrated the minds of almost 30 Labour and ex-Labour MPs from Leave seats to refuse to vote to block Brexit even if that means No Deal in October
    But similarly, the Lib Dems winning the vote in Tory-held Remainer seats will have concentrated minds in the other direction.
  • Thanks, that's an interesting and thought provoking read.

    I find Richard Leonard “interesting” and certainly “thought-provoking”, but hardly persuasive.

    This is most definitely a Richard Leonard thread. A bit of a Z-lister.
    I know there's general PB disdain for Williamson but he certainly seems effective in behind the scenes roles.

    It is perhaps another indictment of May's leadership that she moved him to a position he wasn't suited to.

    Boris, being idle but intelligent, might prove better at putting the square pegs in the square holes.
    Architecturally of course the last sentence completely missed the point. You are MEANT to put square pegs in round holes, that way they do not fall out. We live in a world so far removed from these things that the meaning of the phrase has been completely lost. Someone who does not fit well into a job is actually meant to be better than someone who fits into it exactly because they will work all the harder.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    edited June 15
    Utterly OT, but writers and readers of fantasy should give the fifth SPFBO (Self-published Fantasy Blog-off) by Mark Lawrence a look. It's a great way to find new books/writers.

    Edited extra bit: also, there's still time/space to submit if you have written a book, but it won't last long.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377
    IanB2 said:

    Truss has already been promised Chancellor by BJ

    Damn - Truss is my bet for Chancellor. Wish you had told me this before.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,158
    nunuone said:
    I think it is clear that eye witness accounts can be contradictory and of course flat out wrong.

    There are many examples of this in air crash investigations for example.

    Some of the crew claimed a torpedo attack remember.

    Read this for interesting info

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28529/japanese-ship-owner-disputes-u-s-claims-about-tanker-attack-as-fears-of-conflict-loom

  • Streeter said:


    Chris Froome for Transport, shurely.

    Thoughts on a Boris Cabinet.

    First, he is in a lucky position where he can get rid of a fair few people either because they are May loyalists, have little support and / or in trouble in the party. So, for various reasons, you would expect to see the backs of Hammond / Lidlington / Gauke / Clark / Bradley / Brokenshire / Green / Grayling / Stride and a few others. I think Penny Mourdant could also be at risk - she's backed Hunt but I think she will be viewed as a busted flush having not gone for the PM-ship. Fox might also be a casualty.

    Second, I would expect his rivals to stay in his post. They have all done reasonable jobs, it stops them being on the back benches and there is no reason to shift them. So Hunt, Javid and Hancock to stay. Gove is the interesting one. He has been a success at DEFRA, I suspect it will be down to whether he can stomach having Boris as his boss. I can also see him bringing in McVey and Stewart - McVey in a sort of Communities role to help boost left behind towns (and provide a counterweight to Boris' Etonian background), Stewart in some undetermined area around the Union.

    Raab would be the more interesting question. I could see him as a possible next Chancellor - I think it will be between him and Truss for the post, with their low tax ideas appealing to the base. Both have their issues with promoting a low tax agenda that will be criticised - Raab comes across as lacking in warmth,, Truss is gaffe-prone. Raab would probably be the better choice but I suspect Boris willl like being the first PM to have a woman as Chancellor.

    Who else could come into the Cabinet. Priti Patel might come back either as IDS (and cut the budget) or Defence Secretary, if Penny goes.
    Gove has been OK at Agriculture, but only OK and only OK because the standard is generally so low.

    Owen PATERSON was the best Agriculture secretary this century, the best since Gummer.

    Truss was by far the worst, worse even that the Labour contributions.

    I would say since 1979 the best Agriculture Secretaries were in order GUMMER, PATERSON, JOPLING, BROWN and the worst were The Labour woman who gave all farmers' personal details to the press, SHEPHERD and TRUSS
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377
    blueblue said:

    Personally, I'm looking forward to the Big Boris Tax Cut (wait, am I allowed to say that?). Simply the fact that a Conservative Government might stop constantly raising taxes will be a pleasant novelty for me.

    No you are not allowed to say that. It's deeply insensitive.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,683
    edited June 15

    It would also be a fitting summary of Theresa May's reign that she has smoothed the path for her successor to pass a rejigged version of the WA which she couldn't pass.

    It's entirely plausible. She is terrible at sales and Boris seems to be popular despite many faults, so presumably is pretty good.

    People slam him for his infidelities, and maybe it is a poor character trait, but you could say it proves he is a good salesman. The product doesn't ostensibly look that good.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,437
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    thanks KC for this interesting bit of kremlinology. The disgraced former defence secretary has a new role. Worth a punt for next chancellor?

    Think that will be Liz Truss.
    I have money on that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    If Boris Johnson wants to keep the Conservative party together in Parliament he will need to consider how he keeps the Remain flank engaged within it. Sacking every Cabinet minister from that grouping is an invitation to them and their camp followers to rebel or defect. That problem needs to be thought about before he takes office because they’re not going to hang around to see if they’re still welcome.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377
    Can anybody see a 'Granita' between Boris and Michael? I know it's a blood feud but perhaps that makes it more likely in a perverse way.

    Although I do hope not. I would love to see those 2 in the run-off giving it large and getting extremely personal.
This discussion has been closed.