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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in that other leadership race…

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 17 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in that other leadership race…

Understandably the focus of political interest and betting is on the contest to succeed Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party, and most likely Prime Minister. This does rather overshadow the ongoing contest for the leadership of the Liberal Democrat Party, which finds itself in the rather unfamiliar position of rude health. Having had some excellent results in both Local Elections and in the recent Euro elections, Vince Cable contrasts sharply with Theresa May by leaving the role on a high, with the party polling at its best for nearly a decade, and united over the major issues of the day.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,193
    How many members are there?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,538

    How many members are there?

    105,480 members
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,664
    edited June 17
    Third, like, umm, the Lib Dems
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,063
    Sandpit said:

    Third, like, umm, the Lib Dems

    So which parties do you think are first and second?

    In passing, does a private company count as a political party?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,043
    People asking why Stewart's declared backers are so much less than his actual votes.

    Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    Phukov said:

    kinabalu said:


    But it begs the same question you pose - Why?

    Because the market drives up quality in spheres where competition is possible.
    The BBC stifles competition.
    Barriers to entry into "broadcasting" are historically low, and the consumer is the best judge of what she should consume (unlike, say, medical services).
    The BBC being there by definition increases the competition for the commercial broadcasters.

    If the broadcasting market is one in which commercial companies can perform well compared to the state broadcaster then these companies have to be good at their job to be sucessfull and survive. Hindering the state provider just so that private companies can make a profit is a bad idea.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    Doc Foxy goes for Ed Davey....

    Now let's think of the startling political success of a recent political leader named Ed ....

    Where's my owl ?!? .... :smile:
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 419
    I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

    It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    JackW said:

    Doc Foxy goes for Ed Davey....

    Now let's think of the startling political success of a recent political leader named Ed ....

    Where's my owl ?!? .... :smile:

    Fancy a spread bet on the number of Tories who wish we had chosen chaos with Ed Miliband in 2015? David Cameron for one.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,833
    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    "I'm immediately prejudiced" Says it all really.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    MikeL said:

    People asking why Stewart's declared backers are so much less than his actual votes.

    Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.

    Good point. And the backing of the current PM and CoE would have given him a lot of confidence and explain the willingness to continue until eliminated.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    People asking why Stewart's declared backers are so much less than his actual votes.

    Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.

    Good point. And the backing of the current PM and CoE would have given him a lot of confidence and explain the willingness to continue until eliminated.
    Possibly also that his voters include MPs hoping for jobs from Boris.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Good morning, everyone.

    Any exciting conclusions from the debate last night?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    edited June 17

    I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

    It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.

    Yes, it is hard to judge an audience at a party hustings as even these are not representative of the wider membership. Ed Davey was going down well though.

    Ed was one of the original Orange Bookers, and that was always something that I was in tune with. I think the Coalition years are getting distant enough for a more objective evaluation, and seen as better than the current blue and red menaces.

    That said, I rather liked Jo Swinson too. She doesn't seem to have quite the same CV of achievement, but surely one has to allow for relative youth as well as maternity breaks? She has great potential, and could perhaps reach a wider audience.

    Mentioning Brexit did get a rather pantomime response from the audience, but I was relieved to have a much wider discussion of issues facing the country.

    All in all an enjoyable evening, and pleasing to mert @Icarus in fleshworld



  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 561
    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    "I'm immediately prejudiced" Says it all really.
    Don't you find it even a tiny bit unsavoury the award givers giving awards to themselves?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696
    PClipp said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third, like, umm, the Lib Dems

    So which parties do you think are first and second?

    In passing, does a private company count as a political party?
    If 1 in 4 are voting for it, I guess so.....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,833
    edited June 17
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    "I'm immediately prejudiced" Says it all really.
    Don't you find it even a tiny bit unsavoury the award givers giving awards to themselves?
    Technically, these awards are by the Queen.. Her Majesty decides, PM's can only recommend IIRC

    ...and I find ALL awards ghastly, The Brits, The Oscars , Emmys and so on and so forth. Its the so called stars congratulating themselves..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    edited June 17
    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    I expect you are right that the pressure to show the party can be led by a woman will swing the contest for Swinson - with the same dynamic facing Labour’s next contest.

    Yet it’s not a good basis for choosing a leader, and although I would be willing to give either of them a try my view is as Foxy’s that Davey is the better candidate this time. He has something to say on the big issues, economy, climate, whereas Swinson has tended to focus on less heavyweight concerns. Backing him as a trading bet makes sense as the odds are likely to narrow given that it is hard to see a knockout blow.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,795
    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Did not go to the right school obviously, what a bunch of clowns they are with their Garter and their funny clubs and all awarding each other baubles to pretend they are anything other than inbred losers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Did not go to the right school obviously, what a bunch of clowns they are with their Garter and their funny clubs and all awarding each other baubles to pretend they are anything other than inbred losers.
    It is true alumni of Fettes normally get the Thistle.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,833
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Did not go to the right school obviously, what a bunch of clowns they are with their Garter and their funny clubs and all awarding each other baubles to pretend they are anything other than inbred losers.
    Much the same with the Clans isn't it Malcy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392
    If I was Rory Stewart and had, say, 40 backers in the bag I would have totally lent them out in the first round. If he bring them home in round 2 then people will be talking about only 1 thing.

    Same with Bojo, him lending out votes in round 1 makes a lot of sense.

    Vote lending seems a bad plan for any other candidate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    Calling up last night’s debate on All4, there’s a warning that the programme isn’t suitable for under 16s....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,795
    Alistair said:

    If I was Rory Stewart and had, say, 40 backers in the bag I would have totally lent them out in the first round. If he bring them home in round 2 then people will be talking about only 1 thing.

    Same with Bojo, him lending out votes in round 1 makes a lot of sense.

    Vote lending seems a bad plan for any other candidate.

    Rory for my money didn't knock it out of the park as much as I'd have liked but still proved himself the only realist and someone you look forward to hearing speak.

    I topped up on him last night for final two and, gasp, leader.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,138
    A plague on both their houses.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    Alistair said:

    If I was Rory Stewart and had, say, 40 backers in the bag I would have totally lent them out in the first round. If he bring them home in round 2 then people will be talking about only 1 thing.

    Same with Bojo, him lending out votes in round 1 makes a lot of sense.

    Vote lending seems a bad plan for any other candidate.

    For Stewart it would have been a massive sensation if he had received 40 votes in the first round. That would have put him very close for second - depending on how many votes he had lent to Hunt. That's many times better than scraping through the first round.
  • Foxy said:

    I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

    It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.

    Yes, it is hard to judge an audience at a party hustings as even these are not representative of the wider membership. Ed Davey was going down well though.

    Ed was one of the original Orange Bookers, and that was always something that I was in tune with. I think the Coalition years are getting distant enough for a more objective evaluation, and seen as better than the current blue and red menaces.

    That said, I rather liked Jo Swinson too. She doesn't seem to have quite the same CV of achievement, but surely one has to allow for relative youth as well as maternity breaks? She has great potential, and could perhaps reach a wider audience.

    Mentioning Brexit did get a rather pantomime response from the audience, but I was relieved to have a much wider discussion of issues facing the country.

    All in all an enjoyable evening, and pleasing to mert @Icarus in fleshworld



    Thanks Foxy for the article, very interesting. I agree Davey is the value bet (and, at 6/1, is the same price Brexit and Trump were on the day, if I remember...) but, judging from the comments, it seems like Swinson will win. Tend to agree with Malcolm though, I think she will be useless.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Amazing what you can find out after a tipple with her Maj and Littlejohn at the Admiral Duncan.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    edited June 17
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Amazing what you can find out after a tipple with her Maj and Littlejohn at the Admiral Duncan.
    Don't be ridiculous.

    It was the Lord Nelson.

    Only low-class persons like Boris go to the Admiral Duncan.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Interestingly, Rory is now second favourite on Ladbrokes, at 11, to be next Con leader.

    He's also joint favourite to get fewest votes in the second round, at 2.5 (tied with Raab, whom I mentioned but decided not to back at 5).

    Hunt is 2.25 to make the final two, shortest non-Boris candidate, but 17 to be next leader.

    Boris to get under 120 votes is 21. Hmm.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
    Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    If I was Rory Stewart and had, say, 40 backers in the bag I would have totally lent them out in the first round. If he bring them home in round 2 then people will be talking about only 1 thing.

    Same with Bojo, him lending out votes in round 1 makes a lot of sense.

    Vote lending seems a bad plan for any other candidate.

    Rory for my money didn't knock it out of the park as much as I'd have liked but still proved himself the only realist and someone you look forward to hearing speak.

    I topped up on him last night for final two and, gasp, leader.
    I thought he was just soundbites and glossed over everything. He was going to just get May;s agreement signed after some pow - wow with Farage and unions
    which would make all the MP's think it was great and rush to vote for it. Then all 16 year olds were to be forced to be Boy Scouts and sing round the campfire so that the Empire would be great again.
    God help us if he is the solution.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Did not go to the right school obviously, what a bunch of clowns they are with their Garter and their funny clubs and all awarding each other baubles to pretend they are anything other than inbred losers.
    Much the same with the Clans isn't it Malcy.
    No doubt , but I am not au fait with their shenanigans being a lowlander.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Did not go to the right school obviously, what a bunch of clowns they are with their Garter and their funny clubs and all awarding each other baubles to pretend they are anything other than inbred losers.
    It is true alumni of Fettes normally get the Thistle.
    No idea , a boot up the erse would be more appropriate though.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,579

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Surely that is the fault of the current leader who like Phil Collins has announced his retirement again. Perhaps Sir Vince should take heed of the veteran croonster who unable to drum or sing any more simply sits on a chair moaning about lost glories of the past.

    A Sir Vince aping of Collins would answer your question, sat on his bench in the Commons - "I used to be in the Labour Party until I left because of the egregiously commie Michael Foot. WIth respect to the Right Honourable Member for Islington North whilst I see that he copies the same insane policies as the Right Honourable former member for Blaenau Gwent he is barely even a smear of dog mess on a shoe compared to the intellectual prowess of the former editor of Tribune. I and indeed everyone in my party turn to the Right Honourable gentleman and say Bollocks." [long pause] "to Brexit"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566
    Sunday’s polls show Warren continuing to erode Sanders’ support in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
    The first Democratic debate will be interesting, as it seems likely the other candidates on stage will be taking shots at the absent Biden rather than her. The second debate could be a real scrap.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,677
    PClipp said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third, like, umm, the Lib Dems

    So which parties do you think are first and second?

    In passing, does a private company count as a political party?
    Why should the legal form matter?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,445

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

    Does it make much of a difference this time though?

    It is probably Boris but would Swinson or Davey be a terrible/great choice if it ends up as Gove or Hunt instead?

    I might be missing something but there isn't an obvious difference in choice of Lib Dem leader depending on the Tories choice...

    Good read from Foxy.

    Lib Dem contest doesn't seem to have the same blood and thunder as a modern Tory or Labour one, no threats of resignation or factional warfare, bit too tame for the neutrals IMO!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,717
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
    Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.
    I had to look up Joanna Cherry, as she is that decent I had never heard of her, and, quelle surprise, she is a Scots Nat. I wonder whether she thinks everyone is crap. Nationalists generally think everyone is crap, except themselves. It is part of their angry outlook on life. I suspect if you ask a Brexit Party supporter they will think everyone except Nigel Farage is crap. Pretty pathetic outlook on life really, but hey, that's nationalism for you!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,677
    eristdoof said:

    Phukov said:

    kinabalu said:


    But it begs the same question you pose - Why?

    Because the market drives up quality in spheres where competition is possible.
    The BBC stifles competition.
    Barriers to entry into "broadcasting" are historically low, and the consumer is the best judge of what she should consume (unlike, say, medical services).
    The BBC being there by definition increases the competition for the commercial broadcasters.

    If the broadcasting market is one in which commercial companies can perform well compared to the state broadcaster then these companies have to be good at their job to be sucessfull and survive. Hindering the state provider just so that private companies can make a profit is a bad idea.
    Do you know of the economic theory of crowding out?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,538
    Foxy said:

    I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

    It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.

    Yes, it is hard to judge an audience at a party hustings as even these are not representative of the wider membership. Ed Davey was going down well though.

    Ed was one of the original Orange Bookers, and that was always something that I was in tune with. I think the Coalition years are getting distant enough for a more objective evaluation, and seen as better than the current blue and red menaces.

    That said, I rather liked Jo Swinson too. She doesn't seem to have quite the same CV of achievement, but surely one has to allow for relative youth as well as maternity breaks? She has great potential, and could perhaps reach a wider audience.

    Mentioning Brexit did get a rather pantomime response from the audience, but I was relieved to have a much wider discussion of issues facing the country.

    All in all an enjoyable evening, and pleasing to mert @Icarus in fleshworld



    I resigned from the LibDems because of the orangebookery during the coalition - pro austerity, private good, public bad etc, neoliberalism. I don't agree with that at all and I suspect the majority of LibDem members don't either. But they might not know of Davey's leanings that way. I hope he doesn't get the leadership.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,993
    MikeL said:

    People asking why Stewart's declared backers are so much less than his actual votes.

    Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.

    Quite likely, though it was true of all the candidates.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Amazing what you can find out after a tipple with her Maj and Littlejohn at the Admiral Duncan.
    Don't be ridiculous.

    It was the Lord Nelson.

    Only low-class persons like Boris go to the Admiral Duncan.
    It's all done by text.......

    Littlejohn 'Tone.....A Knight to remember?'

    Liz.W. 'Do me a f****** favour'
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,445
    edited June 17
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
    Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.
    If they are 'all' crap then crap is average and only the very crap are actually below average.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,236
    edited June 17
    This really isn't very fair. The LDs have two Candidates who are both fine. The Conservatives have six, but they're all rubbish.

    The LDs should choose their Leader by tossing a coin and donate the losing Candidate to the Conservatives.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    edited June 17

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
    Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.
    I had to look up Joanna Cherry, as she is that decent I had never heard of her, and, quelle surprise, she is a Scots Nat. I wonder whether she thinks everyone is crap. Nationalists generally think everyone is crap, except themselves. It is part of their angry outlook on life. I suspect if you ask a Brexit Party supporter they will think everyone except Nigel Farage is crap. Pretty pathetic outlook on life really, but hey, that's nationalism for you!
    Get lost loser, back under your rock. You have at least learned something to fill that empty void. Such a cretin should not comment on topics when you know little of teh subject. Go educate yourself.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    LDs will go for the male, pale and stale option - Davey will win.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,538
    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Phukov said:

    kinabalu said:


    But it begs the same question you pose - Why?

    Because the market drives up quality in spheres where competition is possible.
    The BBC stifles competition.
    Barriers to entry into "broadcasting" are historically low, and the consumer is the best judge of what she should consume (unlike, say, medical services).
    The BBC being there by definition increases the competition for the commercial broadcasters.

    If the broadcasting market is one in which commercial companies can perform well compared to the state broadcaster then these companies have to be good at their job to be sucessfull and survive. Hindering the state provider just so that private companies can make a profit is a bad idea.
    Do you know of the economic theory of crowding out?
    Yes - it's a theory based on ideology rather than evidence.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,677
    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    Indeed. Tony wanted to focus his talents on making money for himself and his family

    Nothing wrong by with that, but he thought that public service in the Lords would restrict his ability to do so.

    And would oblige him to identify his clients...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Short of an influx of defections, the possible fish in their leadership pool is still very limited.

    Maybe Vince thought he should go before these "Incomers" arived and diluted Liberal Democray...?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,677
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.
    Rumour has it HMRC had a quiet word
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
    Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.
    If they are 'all' crap then crap is average and only the very crap are actually below average.
    Now you are splitting hairs. Crap is crap.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    TGOHF said:

    LDs will go for the male, pale and stale option - Davey will win.

    He has to be a better choice than Swinson , even if less than stellar.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,131
    edited June 17
    " Ed Davey was on home turf, having been born and schooled in Nottinghamshire with a backstory of being orphaned at the age of 11..."

    It is always interesting to see how a private education is finessed.

    Let me try.

    "Ruislip and Uxbridge is local ground for Boris Johnston. His constituency is just over 10 miles away from his Slough educational roots."
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    edited June 17
    BBC1 about 8:30am - Michael Gove.

    No more scary camera staring please Michael.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    Dr Foxy sounds like a Greys Anatomy character.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,717
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
    Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.
    I had to look up Joanna Cherry, as she is that decent I had never heard of her, and, quelle surprise, she is a Scots Nat. I wonder whether she thinks everyone is crap. Nationalists generally think everyone is crap, except themselves. It is part of their angry outlook on life. I suspect if you ask a Brexit Party supporter they will think everyone except Nigel Farage is crap. Pretty pathetic outlook on life really, but hey, that's nationalism for you!
    Get lost loser, back under your rock. You have at least learned something to fill that empty void.
    Oh dear, back to your pathetic insults, that typify the angry outlook I just referred to. How can you be so moronic to call someone a loser that you have never even met? It really is hilarious, if it were not so pathetic. Go and take a chill pill. You really ought to learn how to engage with an argument. The reality is that your type of nationalism is the type that should have been forced back under a rock a long time ago, but unfortunately it has been allowed out and has manufactured faux victimhood and manifested itself in tartan, which is a hell of a shame for an otherwise beautiful country.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    malcolmg said:

    Now you are splitting hairs. .....

    "Splitting hairs" is almost a red card comment on Mike Smithson's site !!
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 561
    IanB2 said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    I expect you are right that the pressure to show the party can be led by a woman will swing the contest for Swinson - with the same dynamic facing Labour’s next contest.

    Yet it’s not a good basis for choosing a leader, and although I would be willing to give either of them a try my view is as Foxy’s that Davey is the better candidate this time. He has something to say on the big issues, economy, climate, whereas Swinson has tended to focus on less heavyweight concerns. Backing him as a trading bet makes sense as the odds are likely to narrow given that it is hard to see a knockout blow.
    Can't remember who but think an American who said "I decide on the big issues such as the war in Vietnam whereas my wife is concerned about the minor ones - how the children are educated, the local health provision etc."

    Think Jo's approach might be more use to us.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,236
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
    Please don't try deter the Site's very own Malcolm Tucker. Site wouldn't be the same without him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743

    MikeL said:

    People asking why Stewart's declared backers are so much less than his actual votes.

    Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.

    Quite likely, though it was true of all the candidates.
    Mrs May is backing them all?

    Anyone but Boris, eh? Makes sense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    Scott_P said:
    That's rory's saving grace then. He may not make it through the next ballot, but he'll get more than Raab and not come last.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

    Labour clearly outbid the LibDems on the crazy stakes. Are the Tories about to outbid Labour? A vaguely sensible Lib Dem leader might well ‘clean up’ those who Jezza and Bozza don’t reach.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    Indeed. Tony wanted to focus his talents on making money for himself and his family

    Nothing wrong by with that, but he thought that public service in the Lords would restrict his ability to do so.

    And would oblige him to identify his clients...
    Wr're talking knighthood not HEREDITARY baronetcies like the Thatchers
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    Assuming BoZo makes it, essentially unchallenged, the party are going to spend the next few years asking "Why didn't we pick Rory..."
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,312

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Icarus said:

    Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

    Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

    The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.
    Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

    Perhaps another cruise is due.
    Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.
    If they are 'all' crap then crap is average and only the very crap are actually below average.
    Having had a lifetime's experience of crap, and having had to change the little 'uns nappies until recently, I can assure PBes that there is a near-infinite range of crap.

    Some crap is nasty.
    Some crap is ugly.
    Some crap is literally a relief

    Moving off the scatological, I'd argue that saying someone is 'crap' is rather one-dimensional: we are all crap at some things, and most of us are good at other things. I'd play a crap piano concerto, but I can (hopefully!) code reasonably well.

    Blithely saying "He's crap!" without a "at (insert topic here)" clause probably reflects more on the person saying it than the target.

    Except for Chris Grayling. He's 100% crap. ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

    It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.

    Yes, it is hard to judge an audience at a party hustings as even these are not representative of the wider membership. Ed Davey was going down well though.

    Ed was one of the original Orange Bookers, and that was always something that I was in tune with. I think the Coalition years are getting distant enough for a more objective evaluation, and seen as better than the current blue and red menaces.

    That said, I rather liked Jo Swinson too. She doesn't seem to have quite the same CV of achievement, but surely one has to allow for relative youth as well as maternity breaks? She has great potential, and could perhaps reach a wider audience.

    Mentioning Brexit did get a rather pantomime response from the audience, but I was relieved to have a much wider discussion of issues facing the country.

    All in all an enjoyable evening, and pleasing to mert @Icarus in fleshworld



    I resigned from the LibDems because of the orangebookery during the coalition - pro austerity, private good, public bad etc, neoliberalism. I don't agree with that at all and I suspect the majority of LibDem members don't either. But they might not know of Davey's leanings that way. I hope he doesn't get the leadership.
    Politics is about compromise, and I think Davey did well in government as one of the more effective ministers. His comments on fracking were interesting, in that he was under great pressure to allow a free for all by the Tories, so did permit it but with sufficient environmental and safety regulations that it is effectively a moratorium. I agree with him that now we should no longer be doing it because renewables are so cost effective and greener.

    Unless we LDs win a working majority, we will have to work with other parties, or remain in opposition. I wouldn't want to be in perpetual opposition as there are too many important things to do.

    A busy day ahead, so will drop by much later.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    away from Tory musical chairs, things are still fluid in Germany. Greens now heading the polls

    Greens 27%
    CDU 24%
    AfD 13%
    SPD 11%
    FDP 9%
    Linke 8%

    The SPD appear to be heading for oblivion as the Greens nick their voters.

    https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/habeck-haengt-kramp-karrenbauer-in-kanzlerfrage-ab-16238856.html
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

    Indeed. Tony wanted to focus his talents on making money for himself and his family

    Nothing wrong by with that, but he thought that public service in the Lords would restrict his ability to do so.

    And would oblige him to identify his clients...
    Wr're talking knighthood not HEREDITARY baronetcies like the Thatchers
    I agree with Roger that Sir Ed Davey has a bad ring to it. Can’t think of what he actually did to deserve it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Davey looks the more heavyweight of the 2 but both seem C list compared to the A list Chuka and now he has joined the party this leadership contest mainly seeks to be a warm up for his succession
  • glwglw Posts: 5,372
    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

    Labour clearly outbid the LibDems on the crazy stakes. Are the Tories about to outbid Labour? A vaguely sensible Lib Dem leader might well ‘clean up’ those who Jezza and Bozza don’t reach.
    Why can't the Lib Dems choose a looney as well?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    OT. Surprised no one has mentioned Tom Watson saying Labour should unequivocally REVERSE Brexit
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213
    Scott_P said:
    Is there a betting market on the next leader but one yet?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    LDs will go for the male, pale and stale option - Davey will win.

    He has to be a better choice than Swinson , even if less than stellar.
    Blair, Gove and Swinson seem to really provoke your ire, Malcy. Got a thing against the Scots in politics?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited June 17
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's rory's saving grace then. He may not make it through the next ballot, but he'll get more than Raab and not come last.
    I think Javid comes last, Raab has already picked up Stephen Metcalfe's endorsement over the weekend and will get some McVey and Leadsom voters, Javid has had no new endorsements and hard yo see where his extra votes come from if Hancock's voters are splitting between Boris and Rory. Maybe Harper but I would have thought his backers will go to Stewart, Gove and Hunt
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,445
    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

    Labour clearly outbid the LibDems on the crazy stakes. Are the Tories about to outbid Labour? A vaguely sensible Lib Dem leader might well ‘clean up’ those who Jezza and Bozza don’t reach.
    The problem is the people who call both the Tories and Labour crazy also disagree with each other. Once you get past the fans of other possible crazies according to some, UKIP, BXP, Lib Dems, Greens, PC and SNP...

    You are left with a handful of voters, who mainly vote for much more minor crazies... like Change UK!

    The 'sensible' majority would reject every single party for undefined other in a straight choice but not then not agree on who that other is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited June 17

    " Ed Davey was on home turf, having been born and schooled in Nottinghamshire with a backstory of being orphaned at the age of 11..."

    It is always interesting to see how a private education is finessed.

    Let me try.

    "Ruislip and Uxbridge is local ground for Boris Johnston. His constituency is just over 10 miles away from his Slough educational roots."

    Boris was not orphaned at 11 though unlike Davey.

    I see Raab also lost his father at age 12, interesting how some senior politicians lost at least one parent relatively young, May and Blair too. It may add to drive
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

    Labour clearly outbid the LibDems on the crazy stakes. Are the Tories about to outbid Labour? A vaguely sensible Lib Dem leader might well ‘clean up’ those who Jezza and Bozza don’t reach.
    The problem is the people who call both the Tories and Labour crazy also disagree with each other. Once you get past the fans of other possible crazies according to some, UKIP, BXP, Lib Dems, Greens, PC and SNP...

    You are left with a handful of voters, who mainly vote for much more minor crazies... like Change UK!

    The 'sensible' majority would reject every single party for undefined other in a straight choice but not then not agree on who that other is.
    As Corbyn continues to attack his own party members and voters and look like a long shot for no10 there will be a role for the LibDems.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    Scott_P said:
    Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,445
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

    Labour clearly outbid the LibDems on the crazy stakes. Are the Tories about to outbid Labour? A vaguely sensible Lib Dem leader might well ‘clean up’ those who Jezza and Bozza don’t reach.
    The problem is the people who call both the Tories and Labour crazy also disagree with each other. Once you get past the fans of other possible crazies according to some, UKIP, BXP, Lib Dems, Greens, PC and SNP...

    You are left with a handful of voters, who mainly vote for much more minor crazies... like Change UK!

    The 'sensible' majority would reject every single party for undefined other in a straight choice but not then not agree on who that other is.
    As Corbyn continues to attack his own party members and voters and look like a long shot for no10 there will be a role for the LibDems.
    A somewhat random diversion, I'm not sure he really does (attacking part) but I can see this getting into a very pointless argument about what x or y means...

    On the long shot part it is by no means guaranteed but Labour stand a decent chance at 'winning' (if winning is defined as being the main governing party) arguably saying there will be a role for the Lib Dems is the longer shot?

    I'm guessing betting odds would reflect that but this site knows that isn't a perfect reflection of actual chance, so there is value in your eyes in betting on that?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.
    It must hurt to be Gove. All those years positioning himself as the sensible Brexiteer blown away.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123

    away from Tory musical chairs, things are still fluid in Germany. Greens now heading the polls

    Greens 27%
    CDU 24%
    AfD 13%
    SPD 11%
    FDP 9%
    Linke 8%

    The SPD appear to be heading for oblivion as the Greens nick their voters.

    https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/habeck-haengt-kramp-karrenbauer-in-kanzlerfrage-ab-16238856.html

    One poll is just one poll, but five of the main polling companies have polled in June (a few have polled twice) and all of them have the greens with 25-27%. Four of the five have the greens ahead of the CDU/CSU.

    This site "Sonntagsfrage", Sunday's Question "If there was an election this coming Sunday, ....", is a great summary of all german political polling.
    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,236
    Scott_P said:

    Assuming BoZo makes it, essentially unchallenged, the party are going to spend the next few years asking "Why didn't we pick Rory..."

    Well, it would make a change from asking themselves why they didn't pick Kenneth Clarke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Roger said:

    OT. Surprised no one has mentioned Tom Watson saying Labour should unequivocally REVERSE Brexit

    It was mentioned yesterday but Corbyn is unlikely to change course given Labour held Peterborough from the Brexit Party with the current policy
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.
    It must hurt to be Gove. All those years positioning himself as the sensible Brexiteer blown away.
    To be fair there are less challenging positions to aim for.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited June 17

    away from Tory musical chairs, things are still fluid in Germany. Greens now heading the polls

    Greens 27%
    CDU 24%
    AfD 13%
    SPD 11%
    FDP 9%
    Linke 8%

    The SPD appear to be heading for oblivion as the Greens nick their voters.

    https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/habeck-haengt-kramp-karrenbauer-in-kanzlerfrage-ab-16238856.html

    CDU + AfD + FDP =46%. Greens + SPD + Linke =46%.

    CDU + SPD = 35%.

    Greens + CDU = 51% ie the only option now with a majority
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,482
    HYUFD said:

    " Ed Davey was on home turf, having been born and schooled in Nottinghamshire with a backstory of being orphaned at the age of 11..."

    It is always interesting to see how a private education is finessed.

    Let me try.

    "Ruislip and Uxbridge is local ground for Boris Johnston. His constituency is just over 10 miles away from his Slough educational roots."

    Boris was not orphaned at 11 though unlike Davey.

    I see Raab also lost his father at age 12, interesting how some senior politicians lost at least one parent relatively young, May and Blair too. It may add to drive
    Perceptive point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    glw said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

    Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

    Labour clearly outbid the LibDems on the crazy stakes. Are the Tories about to outbid Labour? A vaguely sensible Lib Dem leader might well ‘clean up’ those who Jezza and Bozza don’t reach.
    Why can't the Lib Dems choose a looney as well?
    The few they had lost their seats
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's rory's saving grace then. He may not make it through the next ballot, but he'll get more than Raab and not come last.
    I think Javid comes last, Raab has already picked up Stephen Metcalfe's endorsement over the weekend and will get some McVey and Leadsom voters, Javid has had no new endorsements and hard yo see where his extra votes come from if Hancock's voters are splitting between Boris and Rory. Maybe Harper but I would have thought his backers will go to Stewart, Gove and Hunt
    "I didn't come last in the second round of the conservative leader's campaign" is not really a great selling point.
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