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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Anyone who doesn't vote doesn't matter.

    Now there's a Brexit slogan for the side of a bus...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    I suppose nowadays the definition of prime ministerial does mean getting up Trump's bahooky.

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1140586311964921857

    Also the expression 'I 150 per cent agree' should disqualify someone from everything forever.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009


    Seriously, how fucking stupid are some people?

    There is no limit whatsoever.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Given Lincoln was actually assassinated (rather than just being character assassinated) I'm not sure that's going to fly for The Donald... :D

    Here's hoping.
    An aneurysm brought on by bunker rage on the golf course.
    We don't want the tiny-hands dotard to be a martyr.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    IanB2 said:

    Fenman said:

    Another Brexidiot on Politics Live. 17,4 million voted for Brexit. Yes, love, so 46 million didn't.

    You're the idiot. 16.14 million didn't.

    Non-voters don't count for either side.
    Are you as thick as you seem?

    It's correct that 46 million DIDN'T

    That doesn't mean they voted for an alternative - that's what 16.14 million people did

    #Brexithickie
    The number of people who still want Brexit enough to make a trip to the polling station is down to six or seven million now anyway
    "Bring 'em on! I'd prefer a straight fight to all this sneaking around!"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    Scott_P said:

    Anyone who doesn't vote doesn't matter.

    Now there's a Brexit slogan for the side of a bus...
    "Instead of funding our NHS, let's give £39 billion to Brussels instead!"
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited June 2019

    Fenman said:

    Another Brexidiot on Politics Live. 17,4 million voted for Brexit. Yes, love, so 46 million didn't.

    You're the idiot. 16.14 million didn't.

    Non-voters don't count for either side.
    Not strictly true. When a major change is being voted on non-voters are often presumed, if anything, to favour the status quo which is why many referendums have thresholds and do not operate on a simple majority basis.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    I suppose nowadays the definition of prime ministerial does mean getting up Trump's bahooky.

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1140586311964921857

    Also the expression 'I 150 per cent agree' should disqualify someone from everything forever.

    And Hunt is supposed to be the flagbearer of the reasonable wing of the Tory party?

    He's not going to win. Why doesn't he just try to come out of it with some integrity?
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132

    Fenman said:

    Another Brexidiot on Politics Live. 17,4 million voted for Brexit. Yes, love, so 46 million didn't.

    You're the idiot. 16.14 million didn't.

    Non-voters don't count for either side.
    Are you as thick as you seem?

    It's correct that 46 million DIDN'T

    That doesn't mean they voted for an alternative - that's what 16.14 million people did

    #Brexithickie
    No it isnt correct to lump in non voters it never is. It is a moronic attempt by losers to pretend they have a silent majority on their side. Idiots.

    People vote, we count the votes. Anyone who doesn't vote doesn't matter.
    I agree with your general point, apart from the last bit. People who don't vote do matter. We have to take into account people who are not enfranchised when we cast our ballots. Here I'm thinking about the young, those who live here but aren't allowed to vote, the infirm, and the incarcerated.

    We collectively failed to do that in 2016. Like bunch of self-centred morons.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917


    You say unicorn I say normality. I used to live in Australia and have family in Canada. I compare us to them and say we should be like them. Independent nations with an FTA. What is unicorn about that?

    How do Australia handle their EU land border?
    How do Norway? Switzerland? Ukraine? Russia? Albania? Serbia? Montenegro? Or many other examples.

    If the EU won't give us a deal that is how we should handle it. Simples.
    Serbia and Montenegro may well join the EU by 2025.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    HYUFD said:
    They really need to be careful with this hyperbole. Project Fear did not work in the EU referendum... Have they learnt nothing?
    More pertinently, Project Fear of Corbyn didn't work in the 2017 GE either.

    What was tim's expression about PB Tories never learning?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Why is the AfD so anathema but the ex communist Links is not?

    In any case those are the combined voteshare for the main right and left of centre blocks

    Because many Germans have Ostalgie for the collective structures and communitarian principles of the DDR and the SED. Less so for the nazis.

    The AfD and Die Linke are not remotely comparable.
    They are, they are both the parties of extremist authoritarians just one is extreme right and one extreme left, there are Stalinists in Die Linke
    And there are racists in the Conservative Party. That does not mean that the Conservative Party is a party of extremist authoritarians.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Why is the AfD so anathema but the ex communist Links is not?

    In any case those are the combined voteshare for the main right and left of centre blocks

    Because many Germans have Ostalgie for the collective structures and communitarian principles of the DDR and the SED. Less so for the nazis.

    The AfD and Die Linke are not remotely comparable.
    They are, they are both the parties of extremist authoritarians just one is extreme right and one extreme left, there are Stalinists in Die Linke
    And there are racists in the Conservative Party. That does not mean that the Conservative Party is a party of extremist authoritarians.
    The Tories' official policy is not extreme authoritarianism unlike Die Linke or the AfD
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Why is the AfD so anathema but the ex communist Links is not?

    In any case those are the combined voteshare for the main right and left of centre blocks

    Because many Germans have Ostalgie for the collective structures and communitarian principles of the DDR and the SED. Less so for the nazis.

    The AfD and Die Linke are not remotely comparable.
    They are, they are both the parties of extremist authoritarians just one is extreme right and one extreme left, there are Stalinists in Die Linke
    There aren't many stalinists in die Linke. Communists, marxists, trotskyites: yes, but not stalinists. They are officially democratic socialist.

    Die Linke are anathema to some in Germany, the CDU have ruled out working with them (and vice versa, of course), but the SPD and Greens have cooperated at state level. I don't think this is particularly because of "Ostalgie" (it has also happened outside of the former DDR). The CDU regard them as an extremist party, but I don't really see the evidence for this. And, anecdotally, most Germans seem to find die Linke an acceptable political party (even if they disagree), and the AfD not.

    The AfD are anathema because they are openly racist.

    It's like asking why the EDL is anathema and the Labour Party is not.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Please explain how that can be achieved without the backstop then. Bear in mind that the EU was happy to offer us a FTA IF and only IF Northern Ireland was in something such as the backstop to prevent a hard border.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
    As I have said before Rory is the Tory Liz Kendall
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Phukov said:

    An aneurysm brought on by bunker rage on the golf course.
    We don't want the tiny-hands dotard to be a martyr.

    No, in fact my comment was only semi-serious.

    My initial emotional reaction, should it happen, would be something akin to when we knocked in that winning penalty in the shoot out vs Colombia in the World Cup last summer.

    But the upshot of the event, the angst of his supporters, a JFK type mythology taking root, god knows what else, means that I would soon be settling back into doom and gloom. This is also why I am against impeachment.

    His presidency was born at the polls, at the polls it must die.

    Then some serious jail time.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    Scanned through the thread properly in my lunchbreak.

    Several Lib Dems agonising over a decent choice between Jo and Ed.

    Several Tories openly hoping we pick Ed. I think that might be instructive for me.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
    As I have said before Rory is the Tory Liz Kendall
    He really isn't. Liz Kendall had zero traction. Rory is getting a better press than any of them.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Scott_P said:
    When Bozzer is finally released from his cage and allowed to speak to people the questions need to go straight to the point: when the EU refuse to reopen negotiations and parliament blocks your progress, will you go to the country and will the position of a Bozzer government be immediate no deal?

    All bar Rory are pitching for no deal voters. Not a one of them has the balls to say "it'll be no deal" because they know how bad no deal actually is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    CD13 said:

    It sounds like the LDs have a choice between a second class woman and a first class man. They'll go for the woman, because it's time they had one.

    Labour are in the same boat. They MUST get a female leader after JC.

    .
    So Mrs M does have a legacy, after all.
    In the same way that Chernobyl Reactor Number 4 does.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    You put a 'good deal' first. You don't think May's deal is a good deal - in fact you think it's a 'bad deal'.

    The unicorn is that you apparently believe a 'good deal' is achievable when it clearly is not - especially in just a few months. That means that if you were honest 'good deal' isn't available, and you really want:

    No deal > Remain > Bad deal

    You are a no dealer.

    I am not a no dealer, I'm a fan of Game Theory.

    Insisting on no deal over no backstop is utterly illogical on the EU's side.

    I remain of the opinion that the EU don't actually want no deal and if they take us seriously then a good deal is possible. Its very possible in just a few months, what needs to be agreed could be done in a week - years, months or days is irrelevant it is simply one of whether a side is prepared to make concessions.

    If I'm wrong, I'm 100% prepared to accept no deal. Which feeds back to making a good deal more plausible. Once we have exited the NI border becomes depoliticised.

    If the EU erects a hard border between NI and Eire then Eire are going to want that resolving. If the UK isn't desperate for a deal and can live with no deal but would want it resolving too then the backstop goes away as we didn't and won't concede. Reaching a mutually beneficial deal makes the border problem go away.

    If the EU doesn't erect a hard border then the border bluff has been called and it is a matter of agreeing a trade deal without a backstop to deal with the problems of keeping an open border without one.

    Either way if the UK isn't prepared to sign the backstop it goes away.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    Scott_P said:
    It’s s bit unfair on Javid to expect omniscience about financial matters. My MP was a manager at LIdl but I wouldn’t blame him for the failure or Woolworths.
    One of the Credit Crunch controversies centered on Deutsche Bank is that its traders were lucratively shorting Collateral Debt Obligation derivatives as the bank was pushing those very products into the market. Javid was in charge of that kind of trading in Singapore. So maybe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
    As I have said before Rory is the Tory Liz Kendall
    He really isn't. Liz Kendall had zero traction. Rory is getting a better press than any of them.
    He is, Liz Kendall got some support in the right-wing press just as Rory is doing well in the liberal media l, neither went down well with their own party memberships
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    It would be hard for a centrist govt who committed to reducing immigration to the tens of thousands to hide behind EU regulations when they increased it to record levels

    Indeed. But a UK government that really does implement stringent immigration controls - as opposed to just mouthing platitudes - will by definition not be a centrist one.

    This is my point.

    If we invest all of this time and resource into leaving the EU and then do NOT veer strongly either Right or Left, the whole undertaking will have failed the cost/benefit test by a large margin. Win our 'freedom' and then don't use it. Do the same old stuff but with inferior trade terms and a consequently smaller economy. Don't remember that on a bus or anywhere else.
    Well that depends on your definition of "centrist". I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls. That's the centre-ground of British politics right there.

    You and I might not like it, but pretending it hasn't happened isn't going to win the argument with voters to change minds and move the centre ground to a position that supports immigration.

    A lot of the current talk about "centrism" sounds like a way to define what is right and proper without having to go to the effort of winning the political debate for people to support that. Extremes are bad, centrism is good, now listen to what I tell you centrism is.
    Yes, exactly. ‘Centrism’ as currently defined by Centrists is actually what the vast majority of people call ‘elitism’
    This is also why, when push comes to shove, centrists of the liberal elite variety will tend to prefer the far right over the far left. On those rare occasions where politics actually comes close to impacting their material interests rather than just being a spectator sport, they'd much rather have the side who are strengthening existing hierarchies than weakening them
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think we could be seeing signs that British politics is going to "normalize" in the 2020's.

    Way I see things (possibly) panning out:

    1. Boris wins autumn general election and we Brexit.

    2. Jezza resigns. Labour elects a more centrist leader.

    3. Boris loses 2024 general election.

    4. Rory Stewart becomes Con leader.

    Suddenly by 2025 we're back Lab and Con being center left and center right parties and the previous ten years seems a bit like Pam's dream in Dallas. :D

    Hard to see how Boris wins a GE. Maybe if Farage goes back on his word and does go for a pact, that could be enough, but even then, Labour will regain almost all of the green party vote and a large chunk of the lib dem vote that they are currently predicted to lose, even if Labour continue to offer equivocation on Brexit. Anyone opposed to a Boris Farage pact will reluctantly vote Labour much like in 2017. SNP likely to clean up again in Scotland removes a chunk of Scot Tory MPs and parliament ends up more hung than before.

    If there's no Farage Boris pact then all bets are off, the huge vote split would leave many Remainers feeling more comfortable denying Corbyn their vote, and we could see scenarios playing out like all the recent yougov polls.

    Boris wins majority with the latest Yougov and Comres polls, with the Brexit Party vote at least halving in the Tories favour
    But that majority calculation is based on the idea that Labour and lib dems split equally so tories go through the middle. It simply won't happen like that. For Boris Johnson to neutralise the Farage threat, he has to go to the country promising no deal brexit. In that event, Labour can just stay where they are on Brexit and hoover up tactical votes from Remainers, much like they did in 2017. Every remainer knows that it will be easier to get Labour to abandon Brexit than the Tories. So push comes to shove, they will peg their noses and vote for Corbyn where they have to.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RH1992 said:

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Please explain how that can be achieved without the backstop then. Bear in mind that the EU was happy to offer us a FTA IF and only IF Northern Ireland was in something such as the backstop to prevent a hard border.
    Call the EUs bluff.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Why is the AfD so anathema but the ex communist Links is not?

    In any case those are the combined voteshare for the main right and left of centre blocks

    Because many Germans have Ostalgie for the collective structures and communitarian principles of the DDR and the SED. Less so for the nazis.

    The AfD and Die Linke are not remotely comparable.
    They are, they are both the parties of extremist authoritarians just one is extreme right and one extreme left, there are Stalinists in Die Linke
    There aren't many stalinists in die Linke. Communists, marxists, trotskyites: yes, but not stalinists. They are officially democratic socialist.

    Die Linke are anathema to some in Germany, the CDU have ruled out working with them (and vice versa, of course), but the SPD and Greens have cooperated at state level. I don't think this is particularly because of "Ostalgie" (it has also happened outside of the former DDR). The CDU regard them as an extremist party, but I don't really see the evidence for this. And, anecdotally, most Germans seem to find die Linke an acceptable political party (even if they disagree), and the AfD not.

    The AfD are anathema because they are openly racist.

    It's like asking why the EDL is anathema and the Labour Party is not.
    Polling evidence most Germans find Die Linke acceptable? The AfD is currently polling higher in Germany than Die Linke
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited June 2019
    Chris said:

    I suppose nowadays the definition of prime ministerial does mean getting up Trump's bahooky.

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1140586311964921857

    Also the expression 'I 150 per cent agree' should disqualify someone from everything forever.

    And Hunt is supposed to be the flagbearer of the reasonable wing of the Tory party?

    He's not going to win. Why doesn't he just try to come out of it with some integrity?
    But he knows his electorate, it will play well with party members especially the hoardes that have signed up from UKIP
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RH1992 said:

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Please explain how that can be achieved without the backstop then. Bear in mind that the EU was happy to offer us a FTA IF and only IF Northern Ireland was in something such as the backstop to prevent a hard border.
    Also have to pay the £39m and guaranty EU citizens rights in the UK then we can negotiate a FTA
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2019

    You put a 'good deal' first. You don't think May's deal is a good deal - in fact you think it's a 'bad deal'.

    The unicorn is that you apparently believe a 'good deal' is achievable when it clearly is not - especially in just a few months. That means that if you were honest 'good deal' isn't available, and you really want:

    No deal > Remain > Bad deal

    You are a no dealer.

    I am not a no dealer, I'm a fan of Game Theory.

    Insisting on no deal over no backstop is utterly illogical on the EU's side.

    I remain of the opinion that the EU don't actually want no deal and if they take us seriously then a good deal is possible. Its very possible in just a few months, what needs to be agreed could be done in a week - years, months or days is irrelevant it is simply one of whether a side is prepared to make concessions.

    If I'm wrong, I'm 100% prepared to accept no deal. Which feeds back to making a good deal more plausible. Once we have exited the NI border becomes depoliticised.

    If the EU erects a hard border between NI and Eire then Eire are going to want that resolving. If the UK isn't desperate for a deal and can live with no deal but would want it resolving too then the backstop goes away as we didn't and won't concede. Reaching a mutually beneficial deal makes the border problem go away.

    If the EU doesn't erect a hard border then the border bluff has been called and it is a matter of agreeing a trade deal without a backstop to deal with the problems of keeping an open border without one.

    Either way if the UK isn't prepared to sign the backstop it goes away.
    Can we please have one of your children on here to write posts instead of you. I have no doubt they are 1,000 times brighter than you and would make for a far more worthwhile discussion.

    Oh and you have misunderstood what might lead to a border in NI. Again, get your three year old to explain it to you.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
    As I have said before Rory is the Tory Liz Kendall
    He really isn't. Liz Kendall had zero traction. Rory is getting a better press than any of them.
    He is, Liz Kendall got some support in the right-wing press just as Rory is doing well in the liberal media l, neither went down well with their own party memberships
    So Johnson is the Tory Corbyn, then ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Has any 'no dealer' clarified exactly which public services they will cut to pay for their Singapore-on-Thames tax regime?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    HYUFD said:

    Boris wins majority with the latest Yougov and Comres polls, with the Brexit Party vote at least halving in the Tories favour

    The important thing will be what the polls say when Labour have executed their pivot to Referendum and Remain.

    I predict that your 'Boris Majority' disappears. But we will see.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
    As I have said before Rory is the Tory Liz Kendall
    He really isn't. Liz Kendall had zero traction. Rory is getting a better press than any of them.
    He is, Liz Kendall got some support in the right-wing press just as Rory is doing well in the liberal media l, neither went down well with their own party memberships
    Liz Kendall achieved nothing in that leadership campaign. What Rory is doing now is quite different. Sure he is too sensible for the Tory selectorate and Boris will win, but Rory is not Kendall.

    When Boris inevitably fails, Rory will be well positioned for whatever comes next. Kendall is nowhere.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    I see that Dominic Raab is planning to prorogue parliament and then pass an emergency budget.
    Bless.
    "I hadn't realised how useful parliament is when you want to get crisis legislation passed."
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    It would be hard for a centrist govt who committed to reducing immigration to the tens of thousands to hide behind EU regulations when they increased it to record levels

    Indeed. But a UK government that really does implement stringent immigration controls - as opposed to just mouthing platitudes - will by definition not be a centrist one.

    This is my point.

    If we invest all of this time and resource into leaving the EU and then do NOT veer strongly either Right or Left, the whole undertaking will have failed the cost/benefit test by a large margin. Win our 'freedom' and then don't use it. Do the same old stuff but with inferior trade terms and a consequently smaller economy. Don't remember that on a bus or anywhere else.
    But *why* is immigration control not centrist?

    Most people regard Major as centrist / centre-right. And yet immigration was far lower then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think we could be seeing signs that British politics is going to "normalize" in the 2020's.

    Way I see things (possibly) panning out:

    1. Boris wins autumn general election and we Brexit.

    2. Jezza resigns. Labour elects a more centrist leader.

    3. Boris loses 2024 general election.

    4. Rory Stewart becomes Con leader.

    Suddenly by 2025 we're back Lab and Con being center left and center right parties and the previous ten years seems a bit like Pam's dream in Dallas. :D

    Hard to see how Boris wins a GE. Maybe if Farage goes back on his word and does go for a pact, that could be enough, but even then, Labour will regain almost all of the green party vote and a large chunk of the lib dem vote that they are currently predicted to lose, even if Labour continue to offer equivocation on Brexit. Anyone opposed to a Boris Farage pact will reluctantly vote Labour much like in 2017. SNP likely to clean up again in Scotland removes a chunk of Scot Tory MPs and parliament ends up more hung than before.

    If there's no Farage Boris pact then all bets are off, the huge vote split would leave many Remainers feeling more comfortable denying Corbyn their vote, and we could see scenarios playing out like all the recent yougov polls.

    Boris wins majority with the latest Yougov and Comres polls, with the Brexit Party vote at least halving in the Tories favour
    But that majority calculation is based on the idea that Labour and lib dems split equally so tories go through the middle. It simply won't happen like that. For Boris Johnson to neutralise the Farage threat, he has to go to the country promising no deal brexit. In that event, Labour can just stay where they are on Brexit and hoover up tactical votes from Remainers, much like they did in 2017. Every remainer knows that it will be easier to get Labour to abandon Brexit than the Tories. So push comes to shove, they will peg their noses and vote for Corbyn where they have to.
    Not with Labour chairman Ian Lavery dismissing Remainers in the party as 'left wing intellectuals' out of tough with ordinary voters today.

    Plus Boris gets the majority in the polls promising Deal or No Deal not No Deal only, only a small minority of Brexit Party diehards are committed to No Deal, most will back trying to renegotiate and if not back Brexit with No Deal
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Has any 'no dealer' clarified exactly which public services they will cut to pay for their Singapore-on-Thames tax regime?

    All of them...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
    As I have said before Rory is the Tory Liz Kendall
    He really isn't. Liz Kendall had zero traction. Rory is getting a better press than any of them.
    He is, Liz Kendall got some support in the right-wing press just as Rory is doing well in the liberal media l, neither went down well with their own party memberships
    So Johnson is the Tory Corbyn, then ?
    No, Boris is the Tory Trump.

    However even if he was Corbyn did better than expected in 2017
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917

    Has any 'no dealer' clarified exactly which public services they will cut to pay for their Singapore-on-Thames tax regime?

    I guess you would prefer us to be Hong Kong-on-Thames? With Brussels playing the part of Beijing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Scott_P said:
    Labour List had Boris the most feared by Labour members
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Why is the AfD so anathema but the ex communist Links is not?

    In any case those are the combined voteshare for the main right and left of centre blocks

    Because many Germans have Ostalgie for the collective structures and communitarian principles of the DDR and the SED. Less so for the nazis.

    The AfD and Die Linke are not remotely comparable.
    They are, they are both the parties of extremist authoritarians just one is extreme right and one extreme left, there are Stalinists in Die Linke
    There aren't many stalinists in die Linke. Communists, marxists, trotskyites: yes, but not stalinists. They are officially democratic socialist.

    Die Linke are anathema to some in Germany, the CDU have ruled out working with them (and vice versa, of course), but the SPD and Greens have cooperated at state level. I don't think this is particularly because of "Ostalgie" (it has also happened outside of the former DDR). The CDU regard them as an extremist party, but I don't really see the evidence for this. And, anecdotally, most Germans seem to find die Linke an acceptable political party (even if they disagree), and the AfD not.

    The AfD are anathema because they are openly racist.

    It's like asking why the EDL is anathema and the Labour Party is not.
    Polling evidence most Germans find Die Linke acceptable? The AfD is currently polling higher in Germany than Die Linke
    The AfD are very similar in philosophy to UKIP and The Brexit Party. It is a sign of the times that many in this country think that UKIP/BP are "acceptable". I guess 33% of people in this country are less sensitive to what a fascist party looks and sounds like, or more worryingly do, and just don't care.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
    As I have said before Rory is the Tory Liz Kendall
    He really isn't. Liz Kendall had zero traction. Rory is getting a better press than any of them.
    He is, Liz Kendall got some support in the right-wing press just as Rory is doing well in the liberal media l, neither went down well with their own party memberships
    So Johnson is the Tory Corbyn, then ?
    He is less stupid, but similarly dangerous.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Thank you for giving us more help in gauging how mad Tory members have become.

    Essential information for anyone brave enough to bet on anything that Tory members have direct influence over.
    As I have said before Rory is the Tory Liz Kendall
    He really isn't. Liz Kendall had zero traction. Rory is getting a better press than any of them.
    He is, Liz Kendall got some support in the right-wing press just as Rory is doing well in the liberal media l, neither went down well with their own party memberships
    Liz Kendall achieved nothing in that leadership campaign. What Rory is doing now is quite different. Sure he is too sensible for the Tory selectorate and Boris will win, but Rory is not Kendall.

    When Boris inevitably fails, Rory will be well positioned for whatever comes next. Kendall is nowhere.
    There might be a similarity in that both Liz and Rory seem almost to be describing what their ideal leader would look like, but without sealing the deal by convincing anyone that they themselves embody that ideal. Not so much vote for me because and more like we need someone who ...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Perhaps more to the point, is Ken Clarke the only sane Tory grandee?

    Why are the rest of them so absolutely silent about this lunacy?

    (For the avoidance of doubt, I don't consider Iain Duncan Smith to be a "grandee".)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Labour List had Boris the most feared by Labour members
    Clearly not feared by Tom Watson, who is probably a better judge. He could be double bluffing, but I suspect on this he is sincere. Boris has the real potential to put the final nail in the Tory's one powerful USP: economic competence.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    Well said
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Why is the AfD so anathema but the ex communist Links is not?

    In any case those are the combined voteshare for the main right and left of centre blocks

    Because many Germans have Ostalgie for the collective structures and communitarian principles of the DDR and the SED. Less so for the nazis.

    The AfD and Die Linke are not remotely comparable.
    They are, they are both the parties of extremist authoritarians just one is extreme right and one extreme left, there are Stalinists in Die Linke
    There aren't many stalinists in die Linke. Communists, marxists, trotskyites: yes, but not stalinists. They are officially democratic socialist.

    Die Linke are anathema to some in Germany, the CDU have ruled out working with them (and vice versa, of course), but the SPD and Greens have cooperated at state level. I don't think this is particularly because of "Ostalgie" (it has also happened outside of the former DDR). The CDU regard them as an extremist party, but I don't really see the evidence for this. And, anecdotally, most Germans seem to find die Linke an acceptable political party (even if they disagree), and the AfD not.

    The AfD are anathema because they are openly racist.

    It's like asking why the EDL is anathema and the Labour Party is not.
    Polling evidence most Germans find Die Linke acceptable? The AfD is currently polling higher in Germany than Die Linke
    Obviously some people find the AfD acceptable. I am suggesting that more people find die Linke a legitimate political party than actually vote for them. I would be interested if you have any polling evidence, I don't. Like I say, it's based partly anecdotally on what Germans say, but mainly on the fact that no other political party (not even the CSU) is willing to touch the AfD with a bargepole, while some political parties are happy to be in coalition with die Linke in state governments.

    You asked the question, but you're not interested in an answer. Boring.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    Half agree but how does that approach bring on board Baker and Francois?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Chris said:

    Perhaps more to the point, is Ken Clarke the only sane Tory grandee?

    Why are the rest of them so absolutely silent about this lunacy?

    (For the avoidance of doubt, I don't consider Iain Duncan Smith to be a "grandee".)
    John Major. Oliver Letwin to name but two. They are in favour of putting sensible economics ahead of nationalistic dogma. Proper Conservatives.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited June 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    Half agree but how does that approach bring on board Baker and Francois?
    It doesn't sadly, but in the unlikely event he to win Baker and Francois wouldn't be able to point to themselves being the true Conservative voice any more. They've successfully owned the narrative and it's given parties such as Labour and the Lib Dems less of a reason to vote through the WA as it's never close.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TOPPING said:

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    Half agree but how does that approach bring on board Baker and Francois?
    It doesn't, but if the case had been made properly from the beginning, Baker and Francois wouldn't have been able to take control of the narrative and they would have been left as a tiny minority in the party.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    Perhaps more to the point, is Ken Clarke the only sane Tory grandee?

    Why are the rest of them so absolutely silent about this lunacy?

    (For the avoidance of doubt, I don't consider Iain Duncan Smith to be a "grandee".)
    John Major. Oliver Letwin to name but two. They are in favour of putting sensible economics ahead of nationalistic dogma. Proper Conservatives.
    Fair enough on Letwin. Also on John Major, having done a quick Google for what he's said about it. Still, three doesn't seem a huge number. Maybe those 13 years in opposition means that there isn't the substantial group of Tory grandees that there used to be.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    Phukov said:

    I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls.

    Supporting immigration controls that are stronger than... what exists in their imaginations.

    Trouble is, the great unwashed have totally unrealistic ideas of how many people in this country are from abroad. Ordinary voters know fuck all about what's really going on, they think that the stories told by Farage are somehow representative of reality, instead of scumbag lies told by scumbag liars.
    Maybe they just experience the real world of rising pressures on services, can’t get their kids or grandkids into a local school, the overcrowded roads and trains, 3 weeks to see a GP, they or their kids can’t afford the rent let alone a house due to the demand for housing? None of which are of course due to increased population - not all of which is skilled or paying its own way. Let’s not go into crime levels which again are never linked to more people or climate change or pollution.

    Maybe those are the ‘lies’ they experience in their lives? Or maybe they just imagine it all by reading the Sun?

    They are not against immigration but the uncontrolled unskilled often welfare dependent version we have had for two decades. A system designed to benefit those already here as much if not more than the new arrivals.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    It is not just about advocacy and persuasion, Rory also gives the impression (as did May, to be fair) that he has done his research and given the matter some thought. Contrast this with Dominic Raab who even this morning does not seem to have grasped what the NI border question is about. You can't make the case if you've not even understand what the case is.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Labour List had Boris the most feared by Labour members
    Clearly not feared by Tom Watson, who is probably a better judge. He could be double bluffing, but I suspect on this he is sincere. Boris has the real potential to put the final nail in the Tory's one powerful USP: economic competence.
    Seems to be many motions going to the Autumn LP conference wanting a new deputy leader. Watson sounds like he is fighting for his Labour political career before he joins the LibDems under new leader Ummuna.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Boris is a clown. It is of course repeated often enough so as to lose meaning but he really is a clown and, simply, we cant have a clown as our prime minister.

    Tom Watson gets this, all the leadership candidates get this, I get it, other (but not all) PB Tories and many many MPs get it.

    But perhaps just enough fucking idiotic Conservative Party members do not get it and we will indeed end up with him as PM. It beggars belief.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Snip . :D

    Snip.

    Boris wins majority with the latest Yougov and Comres polls, with the Brexit Party vote at least halving in the Tories favour
    But that majority calculation is based on the idea that Labour and lib dems split equally so tories go through the middle. It simply won't happen like that. For Boris Johnson to neutralise the Farage threat, he has to go to the country promising no deal brexit. In that event, Labour can just stay where they are on Brexit and hoover up tactical votes from Remainers, much like they did in 2017. Every remainer knows that it will be easier to get Labour to abandon Brexit than the Tories. So push comes to shove, they will peg their noses and vote for Corbyn where they have to.
    Not with Labour chairman Ian Lavery dismissing Remainers in the party as 'left wing intellectuals' out of tough with ordinary voters today.

    Plus Boris gets the majority in the polls promising Deal or No Deal not No Deal only, only a small minority of Brexit Party diehards are committed to No Deal, most will back trying to renegotiate and if not back Brexit with No Deal
    Ian Lavery is a "Useful Idiot" using that kind of language, simply justifies the Tories branding the whole of his party as being for Left wing intellectuals only. Nevertheless, everyone knows Labour will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to Remain, and that if you want to stop brexit you have more chance of doing so by putting Labour in than by splitting the vote and letting Boris win instead. For sure, people will flock to the Lib Dems where its safe, but Ian Lavery won't stop them tactically backing Labour to stop Boris.

    Boris would be going into the campaign for an election only a few weeks before end of october, no time for meaningful renegotiation, and the EU have already and will continue to state that the backstop is not negotiable, so he will be unable to keep saying that he is going to negotiate a new backstopless deal. It won't hold up under repeated exposure during a general election campaign.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    edited June 2019
    brendan16 said:

    Phukov said:

    I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls.

    Supporting immigration controls that are stronger than... what exists in their imaginations.

    Trouble is, the great unwashed have totally unrealistic ideas of how many people in this country are from abroad. Ordinary voters know fuck all about what's really going on, they think that the stories told by Farage are somehow representative of reality, instead of scumbag lies told by scumbag liars.
    Maybe they just experience the real world of rising pressures on services, can’t get their kids or grandkids into a local school, 3 weeks to see a GP, they or their kids can’t afford the rent let alone a house due to the demand for housing? None of which are of course due to increased population - not all of which is skilled or paying its own way. Let’s not go into crime levels which again are never linked to more people or climate change or pollution.

    Maybe those are the ‘lies’ they experience in their lives? Or maybe they just imagine it all by reading the Sun?
    So in the absence of any evidence about why they've experienced those problems, they just believe the first demagogue they hear blaming "foreigners".

    No matter that the NHS is to a great extent depending on "foreigners" just to carry on functioning. In No Deal Britain, "I warn you not to fall ill. And I warn you not to grow old" - that's for sure!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    brendan16 said:

    Phukov said:

    I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls.

    Supporting immigration controls that are stronger than... what exists in their imaginations.

    Trouble is, the great unwashed have totally unrealistic ideas of how many people in this country are from abroad. Ordinary voters know fuck all about what's really going on, they think that the stories told by Farage are somehow representative of reality, instead of scumbag lies told by scumbag liars.
    Maybe they just experience the real world of rising pressures on services, can’t get their kids or grandkids into a local school, the overcrowded roads and trains, 3 weeks to see a GP, they or their kids can’t afford the rent let alone a house due to the demand for housing? None of which are of course due to increased population - not all of which is skilled or paying its own way. Let’s not go into crime levels which again are never linked to more people or climate change or pollution.

    Maybe those are the ‘lies’ they experience in their lives? Or maybe they just imagine it all by reading the Sun?

    They are not against immigration but the uncontrolled unskilled often welfare dependent version we have had for two decades. A system designed to benefit those already here as much if not more than the new arrivals.
    https://thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/man-claims-hius-life-being-ruined-by-immigration-but-cant-explain-how-20170227122932
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Fans of Malcolm G?

    “Brussels nicknamed Dominic Raab 'The Turnip' during his disastrous spell as Brexit secretary“

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/17/brussels-nicknamed-dominic-raab-turnip-disastrous-spell-brexit/

    I am in their team William
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    Chris said:

    brendan16 said:

    Phukov said:

    I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls.

    Supporting immigration controls that are stronger than... what exists in their imaginations.

    Trouble is, the great unwashed have totally unrealistic ideas of how many people in this country are from abroad. Ordinary voters know fuck all about what's really going on, they think that the stories told by Farage are somehow representative of reality, instead of scumbag lies told by scumbag liars.
    Maybe they just experience the real world of rising pressures on services, can’t get their kids or grandkids into a local school, 3 weeks to see a GP, they or their kids can’t afford the rent let alone a house due to the demand for housing? None of which are of course due to increased population - not all of which is skilled or paying its own way. Let’s not go into crime levels which again are never linked to more people or climate change or pollution.

    Maybe those are the ‘lies’ they experience in their lives? Or maybe they just imagine it all by reading the Sun?
    So in the absence of any evidence about why they've experienced those problems, they just believe the first demagogue they hear blaming "foreigners".

    No matter that the NHS is to a great extent depending on "foreigners" just to carry on functioning. In No Deal Britain, "I warn you not to fall ill. And I warn you not to grow old" - that's for sure!
    Very few working class people blame foreigners, they blame well off establishment figures for allowing foreigners to compete for their low paid jobs en masse with a massive advantage
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Labour List had Boris the most feared by Labour members
    Clearly not feared by Tom Watson, who is probably a better judge. He could be double bluffing, but I suspect on this he is sincere. Boris has the real potential to put the final nail in the Tory's one powerful USP: economic competence.
    Boris also blunts Conservatives' successful attacks on Labour over antisemitism, sexual harassment and even looking a bit dishevelled. Parties in glass houses, and all that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Phukov said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    He has Roryitis
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited June 2019

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    Rory is only grappling with one half of reality and has his own unicorns. The parliamentary arithmetic is still against the deal. He is offering no new ideas to change that. He simply says that he will convince parliament to pass the deal, without explaining how. He has not address the legitimate concerns people have with the deal.

    That said, he is streets ahead of the others. Just not immune to fantasy.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    You put a 'good deal' first. You don't think May's deal is a good deal - in fact you think it's a 'bad deal'.

    The unicorn is that you apparently believe a 'good deal' is achievable when it clearly is not - especially in just a few months. That means that if you were honest 'good deal' isn't available, and you really want:

    No deal > Remain > Bad deal

    You are a no dealer.

    I am not a no dealer, I'm a fan of Game Theory.

    Insisting on no deal over no backstop is utterly illogical on the EU's side.

    I remain of the opinion that the EU don't actually want no deal and if they take us seriously then a good deal is possible. Its very possible in just a few months, what needs to be agreed could be done in a week - years, months or days is irrelevant it is simply one of whether a side is prepared to make concessions.

    If I'm wrong, I'm 100% prepared to accept no deal. Which feeds back to making a good deal more plausible. Once we have exited the NI border becomes depoliticised.

    If the EU erects a hard border between NI and Eire then Eire are going to want that resolving. If the UK isn't desperate for a deal and can live with no deal but would want it resolving too then the backstop goes away as we didn't and won't concede. Reaching a mutually beneficial deal makes the border problem go away.

    If the EU doesn't erect a hard border then the border bluff has been called and it is a matter of agreeing a trade deal without a backstop to deal with the problems of keeping an open border without one.

    Either way if the UK isn't prepared to sign the backstop it goes away.
    From the EU's perspective, no deal is utterly illogical on the UK's side.

    And I'd agree it is.

    Your laughable shriek of 'game theory' is just a unicorn, a faux-illusion for 'no deal'.

    You are a no dealer. Embrace that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Jonathan said:

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    Rory is only grappling with one half of reality and has his own unicorns. The parliamentary arithmetic is still against the deal. He is offering no new ideas to change that. He simply says that he will convince parliament to pass the deal, without explaining how. He has not address the legitimate concerns people have with the deal.

    That said, he is streets ahead of the others. Just not immune to fantasy.


    You don't get it do you? His citizens assembly plan is to give Labour MPs cover to vote for the WA. It's the exact thing May should have done to begin with.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    Rory is only grappling with one half of reality and has his own unicorns. The parliamentary arithmetic is still against the deal. He is offering no new ideas to change that. He simply says that he will convince parliament to pass the deal, without explaining how. He has not address the legitimate concerns people have with the deal.

    That said, he is streets ahead of the others. Just not immune to fantasy.

    Yes, those are fair points. The trouble is that it's too late to change the parliamentary arithmetic, the party descent into madness or the narrative generally.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Labour List had Boris the most feared by Labour members
    Clearly not feared by Tom Watson, who is probably a better judge. He could be double bluffing, but I suspect on this he is sincere. Boris has the real potential to put the final nail in the Tory's one powerful USP: economic competence.
    Seems to be many motions going to the Autumn LP conference wanting a new deputy leader. Watson sounds like he is fighting for his Labour political career before he joins the LibDems under new leader Ummuna.
    Hmm...I don't think you have read the header, there are 2 candidates for leader, neither is Chuka.

    New thread?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Charles said:

    But *why* is immigration control not centrist?

    Most people regard Major as centrist / centre-right. And yet immigration was far lower then.

    A matter of degree, I think.

    "Controls", yes, perfectly centrist.

    "Crackdown", however, not so much.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    kinabalu said:


    Then some serious jail time.

    Amen
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    brendan16 said:

    Phukov said:

    I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls.

    Supporting immigration controls that are stronger than... what exists in their imaginations.

    Trouble is, the great unwashed have totally unrealistic ideas of how many people in this country are from abroad. Ordinary voters know fuck all about what's really going on, they think that the stories told by Farage are somehow representative of reality, instead of scumbag lies told by scumbag liars.
    Maybe they just experience the real world of rising pressures on services, can’t get their kids or grandkids into a local school, 3 weeks to see a GP, they or their kids can’t afford the rent let alone a house due to the demand for housing? None of which are of course due to increased population - not all of which is skilled or paying its own way. Let’s not go into crime levels which again are never linked to more people or climate change or pollution.

    Maybe those are the ‘lies’ they experience in their lives? Or maybe they just imagine it all by reading the Sun?
    So in the absence of any evidence about why they've experienced those problems, they just believe the first demagogue they hear blaming "foreigners".

    No matter that the NHS is to a great extent depending on "foreigners" just to carry on functioning. In No Deal Britain, "I warn you not to fall ill. And I warn you not to grow old" - that's for sure!
    Very few working class people blame foreigners, they blame well off establishment figures for allowing foreigners to compete for their low paid jobs en masse with a massive advantage
    No matter how you tweak it, it's still the biggest load of crap I've ever heard.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    brendan16 said:

    Phukov said:

    I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls.

    Supporting immigration controls that are stronger than... what exists in their imaginations.

    Trouble is, the great unwashed have totally unrealistic ideas of how many people in this country are from abroad. Ordinary voters know fuck all about what's really going on, they think that the stories told by Farage are somehow representative of reality, instead of scumbag lies told by scumbag liars.
    Maybe they just experience the real world of rising pressures on services, can’t get their kids or grandkids into a local school, the overcrowded roads and trains, 3 weeks to see a GP, they or their kids can’t afford the rent let alone a house due to the demand for housing? None of which are of course due to increased population - not all of which is skilled or paying its own way. Let’s not go into crime levels which again are never linked to more people or climate change or pollution.

    Maybe those are the ‘lies’ they experience in their lives? Or maybe they just imagine it all by reading the Sun?

    They are not against immigration but the uncontrolled unskilled often welfare dependent version we have had for two decades. A system designed to benefit those already here as much if not more than the new arrivals.
    Thank you for providing a frighteningly believable illustration of exactly the braindead nonsense I was talking about! Very sensitively crafted, you've really added each of the key ingredients necessary for that authentic Faragist swill I was referring to. I commend your abilities to sound exactly like a know-nothing fuckwit. Bravo.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,018

    Rory 17.5 to be next leader, Gove 50.0. Bonkers.

    And Rory's price has shortened even after that YouGov poll of Tory members.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Gove’s going to sort it all out by bonding with Merkel...

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1140591022558318592?s=21
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    Absolutely. What is even more frustrating was that he was doing this 6 months ago as the Prisons Minister while May was appointing total incompetents like Raab to the position of Brexit Secretary and then negotiating behind his back. Total fail from May. It is going to be hard to forgive her for this mess.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Gove’s going to sort it all out by bonding with Merkel...

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1140591022558318592?s=21

    It is a good line but if he means it seriously, then Merkel will just point him back to Brussels. She is not going to negotiate a separate deal from the EU.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Rory Stewart is giving a masterclass on the lost opportunity of the last six months. He is showing what Theresa May and the cabinet as a whole should have done to get support for an orderly Brexit, showing how to engage with people, and politely but firmly demolishing the half-truths and fantasies which have so bedevilled the Brexit debate since last November. Too late, alas, but it doesn't reflect well on May and her senior cabinet colleagues that they didn't make the case as he does.

    When we don't engage in the partisan inter-party sparring it's interesting to debate with you. I would say Rory was in many ways May's staunchest defender and the WA's strongest advocate after January but I wasn't always sure he was speaking to the right audience and even then his arguments seemed to get the sum total of nowhere.

    He was loyal to May and the Government long after others had stopped being so and that deserves to be recognised in a Party which always used to applaud loyalty.

    As I said last night, while I'm sure I could have gone for a curry with him in Brick Lane had our paths crossed, he looks the right man at the wrong time. I'll be honest - he sounds a "liberal conservative" to me and he would have been a staunch advocate of the Coalition and probably could have got along happily with Nick Clegg and the Orange Bookers but the world has moved on and the brief convergence of Conservative and LD thought has long since passed.
This discussion has been closed.