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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is on who’ll join him in the final 2
Last week I put a small bet with Ladbrokes on Rory Stewart at 13/1 making the final two in the Conservative leadership contest. The response I got on Twitter was interesting and with most saying I was wasting my money.
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Ed. 2
... and Boris at 2.43
And I suspect very one sided.
Boris is a clown. It is of course repeated often enough so as to lose meaning but he really is a clown and, simply, we cant have a clown as our prime minister.
Tom Watson gets this, all the leadership candidates get this, I get it, other (but not all) PB Tories and many many MPs get it.
But perhaps just enough fucking idiotic Conservative Party members do not get it and we will indeed end up with him as PM. It beggars belief.
I agree. The bit I don't like is where one of them becomes Prime Minister.
What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
Since my return I have also followed a tip of Labour to win the Euros at 6/4, and Theresa May to be out by April at 5/2
At least I didn't lay Boris at huge prices to win the Leadership, as also advised
Me for example. IMO it is such a huge lapse of judgement that all else is subordinate to that view.
It would be one sided for the selectorate, who I have no doubt will go heavily for Johnson's unicorns.
It will also be one sided for the wider electorate, who I suspect will go heavily for Rory's sanity.
And herein lies the problem for the Conservative party.
Finger on the pulse ...
The voting is tomorrow between 3-5pm with the result about 6:00pm
I worry about Boris, but as a citizen. That's a different thing. The man has zero integrity beyond personal ambition.
In Johnson's case, both are applicable.
I don't think it is far wrong but I accept Mike could sell out a tidy sum, whereas I am under water, so a bad bet in that sense.
At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.
Yes it is though. Any price is acceptable when it comes to freedom.
Especially not you.
The loudest cheerleading for Rory seems to be coming from people who will never countenance voting Conservative in the first place. If Rory becomes leader, fails to deliver Brexit (as he would) and divides the party in two and allows Corbyn to become PM as a result then that's not a success.
Though all this could be avoided by the EU backing down on the absurd backstop of course . . . if they're not prepared to then neither am I. I'm consistent with them.
That is the politics of the madhouse.
I also agree that there is nothing better than a proper Tory leadership contest with several candidates. The two stage process, MP knockout ballots followed by a duel for the members, is absolutely fantastic for creating drama and a twisting narrative. It is a great system. The only thing I can immediately think of to rival it is the scoring system for tennis.
On which note, we have to say that Boris Johnson is match point and serving. So close, one good delivery will do it, but as any tennis fan knows - Boris for example, he loves the game - many a match is lost from this position.
I was one of the first (the first?) to cheerlead Rory on PB, many moons ago. I am perfectly willing to vote Conservative. Anecdotally, so would Mrs J, who has never voted Conservative before.
This would be a problem for the party, but it would also be an opportunity. Contrast with Johnson, whom neither of us would vote for.
The other problem he has is that he has often come over as a dull speaker (that first campaign video, for example). However, he seems to be improving on that, but it's probably too late for this contest. I think you're right that he's still got room to grow.
The people who have issues with it are those like Cameron, who could never quite comfortably fend off such attacks.
In my view, someone's schooling doesn't matter one bit.
The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
If they want £ for Boris, I think not....
If I were him I'd do what I could to prevent Stewart making the final two. Not because he might win (he wouldn't) but because he'd shred Johnson's position and approach through the hustings before he'd even started as PM.
Does Rory have enough to get the 10% and avoid finishing bottom ?
4 would be interesting and potentially open up a 4th round of voting.
https://factcheckni.org/facts/are-60-against-the-backstop-in-northern-ireland/
So you've demonstrated that you'd prefer the return of violence to Northern Ireland and potentially the rest of Great Britain rather than implement an agreement with a tool that the people of Northern Ireland actually quite like.
2: I believe the government has already come up with a tariff schedule to be applied on a no deal basis. Largely based upon the EU's own tariff schedule but many items dropped to 0. Apply this on Ireland and the EU if there's no deal.
3: Announce that we will not implement any customs checks unless or until the EU does and will instead rely upon self-declaration of any owed customs.
Then move on.
https://twitter.com/CharlotteCGill/status/1140615412910034944
https://twitter.com/CharlotteCGill/status/1140616508609052672
Unbelievable. What with that and your desire to go to war with the EU if they impose phyto-sanitary checks on us I can only assume you're posting this from the recruiting office?
capitulationbackstop.https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1140605424183521280
I'm prepared to take the bigger risk of them dying in a horrible car crash every time we get on the road.
or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"
That's appalling!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
I'm personally not convinced that Jihadi John, all of his mates, and every right wing nut job who can make a pipebomb should be dictating government policy. But ymmv.
One cannot poke that bear without realising what consequences it may unleash.
I am not sure if you are just gullible/ignorant or you are a rampant fascist. The good thing about your posts is that it shows the true colours of many people that support Brexit, and it is even more repulsive than many of us feared. Decent people need to put fascist tendencies revealed by Brexit firmly back in a box.
It's a secret ballot, so noone will ever know
Fucking Northern Ireland up is all risk and no reward. Pointless.
I commend you sir ....
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159349079
https://twitter.com/MohsinBilalKhan/status/1139554505060757509
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324