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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

YouGov has published what appears to be the only poll carried out on last night’s CON leader debates. The main details are in the YouGov table above.

Read the full story here

DecrepitJohnL

Are we back to laying the jolly?

DecrepitJohnL

In London (and this is a minority view) there was industrial action on the tube before the election which imo aided Boris with outer London commuters.

Freggles

I see that Mr. Hunt is doing better among the ladies than men.

#Suave

Nigelb

Do we know how many of those polled genuinely watched the debate ?

TheWhiteRabbit

On-topic:
It reflects their existing voting preferences - it's cognitive dissonance to say "Javid won, but I'm voting Boris".

it's a shame members weren't polled, as that would have been a good indication of Boris' support

JosiasJessop

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

tlg86

Personally I thought Hunt was the most impressive last night, not that it counts for much.

DecrepitJohnL

Trouble is, it is not really clear what question was being answered. Did respondents see the debate, clips on the news, read about it in the papers?

bookseller

The Tory faithful don't care about 'reach'. They want Brexit done ASAP and they reckon Boris - with the ERG et al pulling his strings - will be the fastest way to achieve this.

Norm

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

Worse. Even the bar stools they sat on were ridiculous.

dixiedean

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

TheWhiteRabbit

Any tips for this of us that on't bet on the horses but have free bets?

kinabalu

FPT:

Tabman said:

Do you think Rory is trying to prove to everyone that the party is beyond hope before he defects?

That's a great thought. But no, I don't think so. I think Rory, despite being in the cabinet for 5 minutes, believes he ought to be PM. It's the sort of absurd self-confidence that a school like Eton inculcates. That's why boys get sent there. It's not the A level prospects. In this regard, Rory and Boris are birds of a feather. The only difference is that Rory is a relatively benign example of the breed. Which, TBF, is a significant difference.

DecrepitJohnL

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

The debate was a right shambles, the BBC production team got everything wrong and the candidates were even worse. Boris looked like he'd rather be anywhere else; Rory couldn't manage sitting still; Gove answered each question by saying Gove is great and Jeremy Corbyn's a cock (which might be true but he's not running for leadership of the Conservative Party). Hunt and the Saj were worthy but dull.

You can watch the debate on iplayer when you run out of pins to stick in your eyes.

Look at the Yougov question though: it is not at all clear they are asking about the debate or media coverage of the debate.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1141309079190720512

IanB2

The gender split is interesting, especially Men tending toward Rory and women less markedly towards Jeremy

Mortimer

kinabalu said:

FPT:

Tabman said:

Do you think Rory is trying to prove to everyone that the party is beyond hope before he defects?

That's a great thought. But no, I don't think so. I think Rory, despite being in the cabinet for 5 minutes, believes he ought to be PM. It's the sort of absurd self-confidence that a school like Eton inculcates. That's why boys get sent there. It's not the A level prospects. In this regard, Rory and Boris are birds of a feather. The only difference is that Rory is a relatively benign example of the breed. Which, TBF, is a significant difference.

His answer to Nick Watt's question said it all - words to the effect of, if you do a pact with someone, who should be leader, and he replied I think it ought to be me.

Cyclefree

Rory not giving up - https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1141309235420172289?s=19

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Freggles, Hunt is the most softly spoken of the contenders. I wonder if that plays into things.

tpfkar

Boris is hitting roughly 60% support among Tory members.
I wonder what odds you'd give me on where it will be in 3 months, when he's achieved naff all with the EU, none of the fundamentals have changed, and he's looking at parliament forcing an extension again? The cries of betrayal will ring out, and we'll go round the cycle again.

CD13

I haven't watched any debates but Rory will never win. He looks wrong. Nobody's looked like him since Alec Douglas-Home, and he never faced an election.

OK, I'm one of the 'pick the prettiest woman' brigade, but he needs a face transplant and an injection of charisma.

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1141309079190720512

Blimey. The leadership 'debate' has left us none the wiser why on earth the Tories think Boris should be PM, nor what he would do if he wins. But seems to have lost two people their jobs potentially. A good evening's work.

IanB2

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

The debate was a right shambles, the BBC production team got everything wrong and the candidates were even worse. Boris looked like he'd rather be anywhere else; Rory couldn't manage sitting still; Gove answered each question by saying Gove is great and Jeremy Corbyn's a cock (which might be true but he's not running for leadership of the Conservative Party). Hunt and the Saj were worthy but dull.

You can watch the debate on iplayer when you run out of pins to stick in your eyes.

Look at the Yougov question though: it is not at all clear they are asking about the debate or media coverage of the debate.

The “from what you have seen or heard” is designed to capture the wider political impact of the debate (I.e. including people who only heard snippets, or heard about it from a friend) rather than focus in on the minority like us who suffered the whole thing.

rottenborough

CD13 said:

I haven't watched any debates but Rory will never win. He looks wrong. Nobody's looked like him since Alec Douglas-Home, and he never faced an election.

OK, I'm one of the 'pick the prettiest woman' brigade, but he needs a face transplant and an injection of charisma.

How's the 'pick the prettiest woman' strategy working out for you?

IanB2

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1141309079190720512

Blimey. The leadership 'debate' has left us none the wiser why on earth the Tories think Boris should be PM, nor what he would do if he wins. But seems to have lost two people their jobs potentially. A good evening's work.

Pretty soon it’s going to be a brave person who sticks their head up to ask anything, if a bunch of tabloid journalists are going to trawl through their history immediately after

HYUFD

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

MikeSmithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1141311871481462785

NickPalmer

TheWhiteRabbit said:

On-topic:
It reflects their existing voting preferences - it's cognitive dissonance to say "Javid won, but I'm voting Boris".

it's a shame members weren't polled, as that would have been a good indication of Boris' support

I suspect you're right. Even Rory didn't think Rory did well, so it must reflect the fact that he's seen as the most Remainerish candidate. It's quite impressive that 84% have an opinion at all - the election has really cut through to people's awareness, apparently.

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

rottenborough

tpfkar said:

Boris is hitting roughly 60% support among Tory members.
I wonder what odds you'd give me on where it will be in 3 months, when he's achieved naff all with the EU, none of the fundamentals have changed, and he's looking at parliament forcing an extension again? The cries of betrayal will ring out, and we'll go round the cycle again.

Yep.

Scrapheap_as_was

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

Yes - abysmal. Rory probably wins with Joe Public as he looked exasperated with the whole thing as presumably so were the viewers.

Cyclefree

IanB2 said:

The gender split is interesting, especially Men tending toward Rory and women less markedly towards Jeremy

I'd have thought he'd appeal to maternal types wanting to give him a decent meal and make sure he wears clothes that fit.

Or maybe that's just me ..... 🙂

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

It doesn't mean either that they wouldn't.

JosiasJessop

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

And Boris's support from leavers does not mean any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader - especially when he fails to deliver the Brexit so many of them want.

Sunil_Prasannan

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1141311871481462785

Michael Portillo has a famous motto:

"Who Dares Wins"

WE dare! WE will WIN!

CD13

Mr Borough,

"How's the 'pick the prettiest woman' strategy working out for you?"

I'm not a Tory voter, but the HoC has always been slim pickings.

viewcode

Norm said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

Worse. Even the bar stools they sat on were ridiculous.

There was a running joke in "Knowing me, knowing you", the Alan Partridge vehicle, where the staircase was deliberately made with the flat bits too long so you couldn't walk down them with one easy stride. In "The Day Today" Sinn Fein spokesmen had to inhale helium to remove gravitas. Yesterday the BBC held a debate with stools that made it impossible to sit in a dignified manner. There is a possibility it was some postmodern clapback to those shows.

Or they are just crap at these things, one of the two...

kinabalu

I don't think those debate numbers say much at all about Johnson's general appeal (or lack of). He wasn't trying. His mission was only to get through it without mishap. Mission accomplished in that regard.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Tory leavers is an extremely fragile basis for trying to build a majority under our voting system, especially as it’s the one constituency that will be most unhappy with the inevitable compromise.

JosiasJessop

Norm said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

Worse. Even the bar stools they sat on were ridiculous.

It sounds like coughing my lungs up was an infinitely preferable way of spending my evening.

Nigel_Foremain

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.

dixiedean

NickPalmer said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

On-topic:
It reflects their existing voting preferences - it's cognitive dissonance to say "Javid won, but I'm voting Boris".

it's a shame members weren't polled, as that would have been a good indication of Boris' support

I suspect you're right. Even Rory didn't think Rory did well, so it must reflect the fact that he's seen as the most Remainerish candidate. It's quite impressive that 84% have an opinion at all - the election has really cut through to people's awareness, apparently.

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

Thought only one went today?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1141314760388108289

IanB2

LK saying Labour internal briefing to its policy meeting says that moving to Remain now is more likely to lose leave voters than win back support already lost to the LibDems. Looks like Labour may conclude it is stuck on its fence, for better or worse.

kinabalu

dixiedean said:

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

I know. It's clear as day that Johnson will extend with the EU and continue to faff around well into 2020 and very possibly beyond.

IanB2

dixiedean said:

NickPalmer said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

On-topic:
It reflects their existing voting preferences - it's cognitive dissonance to say "Javid won, but I'm voting Boris".

it's a shame members weren't polled, as that would have been a good indication of Boris' support

I suspect you're right. Even Rory didn't think Rory did well, so it must reflect the fact that he's seen as the most Remainerish candidate. It's quite impressive that 84% have an opinion at all - the election has really cut through to people's awareness, apparently.

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

Thought only one went today?

Yep. Unless there’s a joint bottom place.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1141313022910242816?s=20

isam

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

What I saw of it was horrendous, they all looked like fools. Rory looked like he was on a comedown from a three day bender.

Seemed to me the PB collective wisdom was the non Tories and Remainers thought Rory did well, as per the poll.

DecrepitJohnL

kinabalu said:

I don't think those debate numbers say much at all about Johnson's general appeal (or lack of). He wasn't trying. His mission was only to get through it without mishap. Mission accomplished in that regard.

Without mishap? Saj bounced Boris into conceding an inquiry into Islamophobia (which is probably why his supporters threw up the smokescreen about the questioners -- and the bloody fools at the BBC gave them more than enough ammunition and it has taken on a life of its own).

Boris also rowed back from his previous pledges of income tax cuts for rich people and backbench MPs, and even 31/10 is looking dicey.

Whether it matters is another question entirely. Things that probably ought to matter often turn out not to.

Boris lost the debate. Boris is still the best known and most charismatic candidate. You choose.

Paristonda

In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?

Quincel

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1141309079190720512

Blimey. The leadership 'debate' has left us none the wiser why on earth the Tories think Boris should be PM, nor what he would do if he wins. But seems to have lost two people their jobs potentially. A good evening's work.

I'm not defending the tweets (I've seen the Imam's not the lawyer's, and they were pretty terrible) but does anyone else find this habit of trying to discredit the questioners which also happens after QT pretty disconcerting? Unless the question itself is unfair, then surely it doesn't matter? We are here to judge the answers and answerers.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

It doesn't mean either that they wouldn't.

It does as the polling shows, Rory continues to see mass 2017 Tory defections to the Brexit Party while winning few if any 2017 Labour or LD voters to the Tories.

Amongst 2017 Tories Rory came 3rd as to who won the debate behind both Boris and Hunt

kinabalu

NickPalmer said:

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

Can they BOTH be doomed?

IanB2

Norm said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

Worse. Even the bar stools they sat on were ridiculous.

Maitlis said on R4 this morning that they were “comfortable” and designed to create a more informal atmosphere than standing rigidly behind podiums. Some body language expert said Rory should have put one leg on the ground and the other on the cross spar rather than trying to stand on the floor and sit on the seat at the same time.

JosiasJessop

viewcode said:

Norm said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

Worse. Even the bar stools they sat on were ridiculous.

There was a running joke in "Knowing me, knowing you", the Alan Partridge vehicle, where the staircase was deliberately made with the flat bits too long so you couldn't walk down them with one easy stride. In "The Day Today" Sinn Fein spokesmen had to inhale helium to remove gravitas. Yesterday the BBC held a debate with stools that made it impossible to sit in a dignified manner. There is a possibility it was some postmodern clapback to those shows.

Or they are just crap at these things, one of the two...

" ... flat bits ..."

They're called treads. The vertical bits are risers. Or maybe I'm talking a load of balusters - I'm newel to this post and might be in for a hard landing. I should perhaps curtail this now. I'll put a brave fascia to it ...

HYUFD

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.

Well go to the LDs then, we will win without you

Nigelb

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1141311871481462785

It rather more obviously displays the dangers of giving the choice to the members.
Who now still thinks choosing IDS over Clarke was even remotely sensible ?

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Tory leavers is an extremely fragile basis for trying to build a majority under our voting system, especially as it’s the one constituency that will be most unhappy with the inevitable compromise.

Boris won with Leavers as a whole ie including Brexit Party and Labour Leavers

Quincel

Paristonda said:

In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?

We aren't sure. In past contests a tie has had a second ballot of just those two candidates and if there is another tie they both are eliminated (so in your example 1st place would just win). But the 1922 Committee write new rules each time (hence the 5%/10% thresholds introduced this time at ballots 1/2) and they haven't published them in full.

I expect they would make it up on the spot and decide to have a further ballot after 24 hours with just the tied candidates to try and get a clear 2nd place. Avoiding a members ballot on such a technicality would be very unfortunate.

HYUFD

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

And Boris's support from leavers does not mean any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader - especially when he fails to deliver the Brexit so many of them want.

It does as the polling shows, Boris is the only Tory to win a majority on his Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket.

Under Rory the Brexit Party overtake the Tories and the Tories trail the LDs and Labour too.

Rory would have more chance becoming PM as LD leader than Tory leader

JackW

NickPalmer said:

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

There is no threshold from now on so only one goes out at a time.

Quincel

dixiedean said:

NickPalmer said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

On-topic:
It reflects their existing voting preferences - it's cognitive dissonance to say "Javid won, but I'm voting Boris".

it's a shame members weren't polled, as that would have been a good indication of Boris' support

I suspect you're right. Even Rory didn't think Rory did well, so it must reflect the fact that he's seen as the most Remainerish candidate. It's quite impressive that 84% have an opinion at all - the election has really cut through to people's awareness, apparently.

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

Thought only one went today?

Yes, we are past the point of thresholds which can cleave off multiple candidates. Though a tie might lead to a double-elimination, 1922 haven't been clear on the rules there.

rottenborough

Paristonda said:

In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?

deleted.

OblitusSumMe

IanB2 said:

Norm said:

JosiasJessop said:

Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.

I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.

Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?

Worse. Even the bar stools they sat on were ridiculous.

Maitlis said on R4 this morning that they were “comfortable” and designed to create a more informal atmosphere than standing rigidly behind podiums. Some body language expert said Rory should have put one leg on the ground and the other on the cross spar rather than trying to stand on the floor and sit on the seat at the same time.

They could have given them armchairs. Or yoga balls.

Maybe there would be more truthful answers if they had to stand on one foot while talking?

PeterMannion

Nigelb said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1141311871481462785

It rather more obviously displays the dangers of giving the choice to the members.
Who now still thinks choosing IDS over Clarke was even remotely sensible ?

Isn't IDS still the Tory members' 3rd favourite leader after Winston and Hilda?!

HYUFD

dixiedean said:

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

Raab stood as he would even prorugue Parliament to enforce No Deal, Boris has committed to leave by the end of October unlike Hint, Gove and Rory so it had to be Boris. Javid has also said no further extension but was a Remainer but I suspect some Raab votes will go to Javid this evening

Tissue_Price

Quincel said:

Paristonda said:

In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?

We aren't sure. In past contests a tie has had a second ballot of just those two candidates and if there is another tie they both are eliminated (so in your example 1st place would just win). But the 1922 Committee write new rules each time (hence the 5%/10% thresholds introduced this time at ballots 1/2) and they haven't published them in full.

I expect they would make it up on the spot and decide to have a further ballot after 24 hours with just the tied candidates to try and get a clear 2nd place. Avoiding a members ballot on such a technicality would be very unfortunate.

Revote again and again, per footnote 50 here:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf

(It clearly wouldn't be fair - in the context of the overall mechanism - to have a ballot of just the tied candidates.)

logical_song

kinabalu said:

dixiedean said:

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

I know. It's clear as day that Johnson will extend with the EU and continue to faff around well into 2020 and very possibly beyond.

That rings true, Boris isn't very decisive - remember his two referendum articles.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1141316271809716231

OblitusSumMe

Paristonda said:

In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?

I think the 1922 would have to hold a meeting to decide.

Edit: but I was wrong (thanks Tissue Price)

Nigelb

logical_song said:

kinabalu said:

dixiedean said:

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

I know. It's clear as day that Johnson will extend with the EU and continue to faff around well into 2020 and very possibly beyond.

That rings true, Boris isn't very decisive - remember his two referendum articles.

Continuity May, if so (with a few added gags).
That would go down well.

TGOHF

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

There is no threshold from now on so only one goes out at a time.

What if they get equal no of votes ?

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

LK saying Labour internal briefing to its policy meeting says that moving to Remain now is more likely to lose leave voters than win back support already lost to the LibDems. Looks like Labour may conclude it is stuck on its fence, for better or worse.

Indeed backing EUref2 would likely have seen the Brexit Party win Peterborough from Labour.

Labour held it being on the fence, on Remain areas supporting EUref2 might get it some voters back from the LDs but most Labour seats voted Leave.

The Tories at least know most Tory voters and seats voted Leave, most Labour voters voted Remain, most Labour seats voted Leave

Gallowgate

https://twitter.com/BenGartside/status/1141315971405287424

Sunil_Prasannan

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

NickPalmer said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

On-topic:
It reflects their existing voting preferences - it's cognitive dissonance to say "Javid won, but I'm voting Boris".

it's a shame members weren't polled, as that would have been a good indication of Boris' support

I suspect you're right. Even Rory didn't think Rory did well, so it must reflect the fact that he's seen as the most Remainerish candidate. It's quite impressive that 84% have an opinion at all - the election has really cut through to people's awareness, apparently.

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

Thought only one went today?

Yep. Unless there’s a joint bottom place.

In which case it will be a re-play.

Nigelb

PeterMannion said:

Nigelb said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1141311871481462785

It rather more obviously displays the dangers of giving the choice to the members.
Who now still thinks choosing IDS over Clarke was even remotely sensible ?

Isn't IDS still the Tory members' 3rd favourite leader after Winston and Hilda?!

True.
It's hard to hold in your head just how weird is the Conservative selectorate.

dixiedean

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

Raab stood as he would even prorugue Parliament to enforce No Deal, Boris has committed to leave by the end of October unlike Hint, Gove and Rory so it had to be Boris. Javid has also said no further extension but was a Remainer but I suspect some Raab votes will go to Javid this evening

Indeed. I understand the logic of him backing Boris. It is the arbitrary date which offers a hostage to fortune. We've been down this road before.

Quincel

Tissue_Price said:

Quincel said:

Paristonda said:

In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?

We aren't sure. In past contests a tie has had a second ballot of just those two candidates and if there is another tie they both are eliminated (so in your example 1st place would just win). But the 1922 Committee write new rules each time (hence the 5%/10% thresholds introduced this time at ballots 1/2) and they haven't published them in full.

I expect they would make it up on the spot and decide to have a further ballot after 24 hours with just the tied candidates to try and get a clear 2nd place. Avoiding a members ballot on such a technicality would be very unfortunate.

Revote again and again, per footnote 50 here:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf

(It clearly wouldn't be fair - in the context of the overall mechanism - to have a ballot of just the tied candidates.)

Cheers, didn't realise this had been clarified.

Wait: What if there is a tie, and then on the re-run there is a tie between two different candidates? How *precisely* is Rule 26 worded?

tlg86

Nigelb said:

PeterMannion said:

Nigelb said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1141311871481462785

It rather more obviously displays the dangers of giving the choice to the members.
Who now still thinks choosing IDS over Clarke was even remotely sensible ?

Isn't IDS still the Tory members' 3rd favourite leader after Winston and Hilda?!

True.
It's hard to hold in your head just how weird is the Conservative selectorate.

Well he never lost an election.

HYUFD

Nigelb said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1141311871481462785

It rather more obviously displays the dangers of giving the choice to the members.
Who now still thinks choosing IDS over Clarke was even remotely sensible ?

Blair would still have won most seats in 2005 v Clarke but it might have been a hung parliament

TGOHF

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.

I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.

Deliver or be toast.

tpfkar

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.

Well go to the LDs then, we will win without you

Just like the Euro elections? Full of win. So much winning. Both big parties seem to be locked in a purity death-spiral. FPTP catches up with everyone in the end.

JackW

TGOHF said:

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

There is no threshold from now on so only one goes out at a time.

What if they get equal no of votes ?

The revised rules don't account for that. Possibly fallback on the rerun option.

I'd prefer a penalty shoot-out.

JosiasJessop

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

And Boris's support from leavers does not mean any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader - especially when he fails to deliver the Brexit so many of them want.

It does as the polling shows, Boris is the only Tory to win a majority on his Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket.

Under Rory the Brexit Party overtake the Tories and the Tories trail the LDs and Labour too.

Rory would have more chance becoming PM as LD leader than Tory leader

This all comes down to the central lie of the leave campaigns in the referendum, which means that 'Brexit' now means different things to different people. These have slowly converged into two main camps:

1) The Philip Thompson / Farage 'let the country burn' hard Brexit.
2) A deal. May's deal in effect if not in name.

No attempts have been made to bring these two camps together. If we are to have Brexit, then the waveforms have to collapse and one chosen. And that will p*ss off the other sizeable segment.

Boris, like Labour, is currently believing in Schrodinger's Brexit. That is not a sustainable position in the medium term (i.e. beyond September).

Mysticrose

kinabalu said:

dixiedean said:

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

I know. It's clear as day that Johnson will extend with the EU and continue to faff around well into 2020 and very possibly beyond.

I don't think that will be in his behest to grant.

Tomorrow we'll know the Brecon & Radnor recall petition result. If we have a by-election then I think the LibDems will take the seat.

The tory majority even with the DUP on board is heading into negative territory. Boris is highly divisive even on his own benches. A successful Vote of No Confidence is only a matter of time.

Which is why Boris will go to the country on a Brexit or Bust General Election.

TGOHF

JackW said:

TGOHF said:

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

There is no threshold from now on so only one goes out at a time.

What if they get equal no of votes ?

The revised rules don't account for that. Possibly fallback on the rerun option.

I'd prefer a penalty shoot-out.

Great British Bake off rules would be both go through but 2 eliminated next time.

HYUFD

tpfkar said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.

Well go to the LDs then, we will win without you

Just like the Euro elections? Both big parties seem to be locked in a purity spiral. FPTP catches up with everyone in the end.

Over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, only 12% voted LD

HYUFD

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

And Boris's support from leavers does not mean any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader - especially when he fails to deliver the Brexit so many of them want.

It does as the polling shows, Boris is the only Tory to win a majority on his Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket.

Under Rory the Brexit Party overtake the Tories and the Tories trail the LDs and Labour too.

Rory would have more chance becoming PM as LD leader than Tory leader

This all comes down to the central lie of the leave campaigns in the referendum, which means that 'Brexit' now means different things to different people. These have slowly converged into two main camps:

1) The Philip Thompson / Farage 'let the country burn' hard Brexit.
2) A deal. May's deal in effect if not in name.

No attempts have been made to bring these two camps together. If we are to have Brexit, then the waveforms have to collapse and one chosen. And that will p*ss off the other sizeable segment.

Boris, like Labour, is currently believing in Schrodinger's Brexit. That is not a sustainable position in the medium term (i.e. beyond September).

Boris as has been reported in reality wants a FTA for GB and a referendum on the backstop in NI which likely enables passage of the WA as he wins an election on it too

TOPPING

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

It doesn't mean either that they wouldn't.

It does as the polling shows, Rory continues to see mass 2017 Tory defections to the Brexit Party while winning few if any 2017 Labour or LD voters to the Tories.

Amongst 2017 Tories Rory came 3rd as to who won the debate behind both Boris and Hunt

If it was raining and you'd missed the bus and a Ford Fiesta went by and splashed you and the Ford Fiesta was blue...would you buy:

a) a BMW
b) a Ford
c) a Toyota

Mysticrose

TGOHF said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Boris is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.

Deliver or be toast.

He hasn't given a scrap of evidence as to how he is going to achieve that. Not a scrap. Just the usual bluster and vacuous rubbish.

dixiedean

TGOHF said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.

I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.

Deliver or be toast.

The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.

Gallowgate

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

It doesn't mean either that they wouldn't.

It does as the polling shows, Rory continues to see mass 2017 Tory defections to the Brexit Party while winning few if any 2017 Labour or LD voters to the Tories.

Amongst 2017 Tories Rory came 3rd as to who won the debate behind both Boris and Hunt

If it was raining and you'd missed the bus and a Ford Fiesta went by and splashed you and the Ford Fiesta was blue...would you buy:

a) a BMW
b) a Ford
c) a Toyota

Clearly a UK built Toyota...

justin124

Mysticrose said:

kinabalu said:

dixiedean said:

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

I know. It's clear as day that Johnson will extend with the EU and continue to faff around well into 2020 and very possibly beyond.

I don't think that will be in his behest to grant.

Tomorrow we'll know the Brecon & Radnor recall petition result. If we have a by-election then I think the LibDems will take the seat.

The tory majority even with the DUP on board is heading into negative territory. Boris is highly divisive even on his own benches. A successful Vote of No Confidence is only a matter of time.

Which is why Boris will go to the country on a Brexit or Bust General Election.

The result of the recall petition is apparently to be announced on Friday.

Tissue_Price

Quincel said:

Tissue_Price said:

Quincel said:

Paristonda said:

In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?

We aren't sure. In past contests a tie has had a second ballot of just those two candidates and if there is another tie they both are eliminated (so in your example 1st place would just win). But the 1922 Committee write new rules each time (hence the 5%/10% thresholds introduced this time at ballots 1/2) and they haven't published them in full.

I expect they would make it up on the spot and decide to have a further ballot after 24 hours with just the tied candidates to try and get a clear 2nd place. Avoiding a members ballot on such a technicality would be very unfortunate.

Revote again and again, per footnote 50 here:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf

(It clearly wouldn't be fair - in the context of the overall mechanism - to have a ballot of just the tied candidates.)

Cheers, didn't realise this had been clarified.

Wait: What if there is a tie, and then on the re-run there is a tie between two different candidates? How *precisely* is Rule 26 worded?

That had occurred to me, and that would be fascinating. I don't know; I haven't seen the actual rulebook.

dixiedean

JackW said:

TGOHF said:

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

There is no threshold from now on so only one goes out at a time.

What if they get equal no of votes ?

The revised rules don't account for that. Possibly fallback on the rerun option.

I'd prefer a penalty shoot-out.

Scissors, paper, stone. Best of 201. One a minute.
Just think of the betting opportunities that would present.

JosiasJessop

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

And Boris's support from leavers does not mean any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader - especially when he fails to deliver the Brexit so many of them want.

It does as the polling shows, Boris is the only Tory to win a majority on his Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket.

Under Rory the Brexit Party overtake the Tories and the Tories trail the LDs and Labour too.

Rory would have more chance becoming PM as LD leader than Tory leader

This all comes down to the central lie of the leave campaigns in the referendum, which means that 'Brexit' now means different things to different people. These have slowly converged into two main camps:

1) The Philip Thompson / Farage 'let the country burn' hard Brexit.
2) A deal. May's deal in effect if not in name.

No attempts have been made to bring these two camps together. If we are to have Brexit, then the waveforms have to collapse and one chosen. And that will p*ss off the other sizeable segment.

Boris, like Labour, is currently believing in Schrodinger's Brexit. That is not a sustainable position in the medium term (i.e. beyond September).

Boris as has been reported in reality wants a FTA for GB and a referendum on the backstop in NI which likely enables passage of the WA as he wins an election on it too

He wants Unicorn farts. And that's today's wizard wheeze - he'll be onto another plan tomorrow.

It's time for politicians to be adults and deal with the reality of the situation. And that is a rapidly-looming date with no-deal.

OblitusSumMe

Mysticrose said:

TGOHF said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Boris is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.

Deliver or be toast.

He hasn't given a scrap of evidence as to how he is going to achieve that. Not a scrap. Just the usual bluster and vacuous rubbish.

While that's true, MPs are only human and the "usual bluster and vacuous rubbish" might be enough for them.

TGOHF

Mysticrose said:

TGOHF said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Boris is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.

Deliver or be toast.

He hasn't given a scrap of evidence as to how he is going to achieve that. Not a scrap. Just the usual bluster and vacuous rubbish.

Indeed - I can't believe how he is defying gravity with Con MPs and members.

Crowding around the favourite would seem to be the only reason. You can see why they wanted a coronation last week.

Honestly cant see anything other than a Boris implosion when it gets down to the last two.

Mysticrose

justin124 said:

Mysticrose said:

kinabalu said:

dixiedean said:

So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31.
Do they ever learn?

I know. It's clear as day that Johnson will extend with the EU and continue to faff around well into 2020 and very possibly beyond.

I don't think that will be in his behest to grant.

Tomorrow we'll know the Brecon & Radnor recall petition result. If we have a by-election then I think the LibDems will take the seat.

The tory majority even with the DUP on board is heading into negative territory. Boris is highly divisive even on his own benches. A successful Vote of No Confidence is only a matter of time.

Which is why Boris will go to the country on a Brexit or Bust General Election.

The result of the recall petition is apparently to be announced on Friday.

Oh. Thank you for that clarification.

It closes 5pm tomorrow with result announced Friday.

noneoftheabove

dixiedean said:

TGOHF said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.

Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader

Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.

I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.

Deliver or be toast.

The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.

And that would achieve what precisely? Another election where another fantasist lies to the ERG and they believe him/her instead of the latest PM? On and on we go until the ERG grow up and face reality.

DecrepitJohnL

TGOHF said:

JackW said:

TGOHF said:

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

Javid and Stewart doomed this afternoon, IMO.

There is no threshold from now on so only one goes out at a time.

What if they get equal no of votes ?

The revised rules don't account for that. Possibly fallback on the rerun option.

I'd prefer a penalty shoot-out.

Great British Bake off rules would be both go through but 2 eliminated next time.

They should try Eurovision rules and get an Australian or Israeli in.