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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Team Boris thought thought Hunt would be a pushover then this afternoon should disabuse them

The story during the final part of the MP balloting for the CON leadership was that Team Boris was working at ways to have their man fight Hunt in the membership part of the selection rather than Michael Gove.

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First! Like Boris, regrettably

CarlottaVance

this is going to be a more interesting fight than we anticipated

Yes. Coronation postponed.

I'm not sure more exposure will do the mendacious lazy adulterous charlatan Boris more good

CarlottaVance

FPT:

Foxy said:

Who didn't know that he is a spoilt brat who cares little for other people, and has a history of failed relationships?

Reminding them does no harm.

Ishmael_Z

Dittography in the headline.

Nigelb

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

Foxy said:

Who didn't know that he is a spoilt brat who cares little for other people, and has a history of failed relationships?

Reminding them does no harm.

You’re not a fan, then ?

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1142502166193737733

alex.

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority. What i don't get then is the assumption that nodeal Brexit will then happen. I can't believe that every Tory MP will sign up to this. Will Jo Johnson, for example, vote for this? And if the Tories have a majority they (and Johnson) will surely prefer to bank this and try and deliver a sensible Brexit using the majority, rather than unnecessarily crashing out with nodeal.

CarlottaVance

The Sun....totally behind Boris....

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691

Foxy

Boris strikes me as in the throes of a mid-life crisis. A man who has spent a couple of decades trying to reach the top, then finding it turn to ashes in his mouth and desperate to try to hang on to his youth.

He has missed out on the sports car, but losing a few stone, getting some sharper clothes and a abandoning his wife for a fickle younger woman. I wonder what sort of tattoo he has picked out...

JackW

GIN1138 said:

Wonder if JRM's ever had the police at his door following a bust up at midnight?

Special Branch in the bushes 24/7

CarlottaVance

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

SandyRentool

Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....

RobD

CarlottaVance said:

The Sun....totally behind Boris....

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691

“Who made his man Foreign secretary?”

alex.

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..

Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?

Nigelb

WI manage to blow a commanding position in the space of two overs.

YBarddCwsc

SandyRentool said:

Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....

When David Blunkett was having rather well publicised difficulties with his relationships, his first wife honourably refused to comment, despite being offered tabloid money. I rather admired her for it.

When Chris Huhne ran into marital problems, his wife was perhaps rather too keen to comment to the press.

I am not sure Vicky Pryce made the right call.

Perhaps a marriage has broken down, but you normally want to have a relationship with your ex-partner (especially as in Marina's case, there are children to consider as well).

Theuniondivvie

Foxy said:

Boris strikes me as in the throes of a mid-life crisis. A man who has spent a couple of decades trying to reach the top, then finding it turn to ashes in his mouth and desperate to try to hang on to his youth.

He has missed out on the sports car, but losing a few stone, getting some sharper clothes and a abandoning his wife for a fickle younger woman. I wonder what sort of tattoo he has picked out...

A big heart with BJ loves BJ in the centre. Could be read in 2 different ways of course.

eek

alex. said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..

Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?

A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....

alex.

eek said:

alex. said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..

Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?

A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....

May well be, but it's HYUFD's plan for how Johnson delivers his Brexit promise.

Nigelb

YBarddCwsc said:

SandyRentool said:

Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....

When David Blunkett was having rather well publicised difficulties with his relationships, his first wife honourably refused to comment, despite being offered tabloid money. I rather admired her for it.

When Chris Huhne ran into marital problems, his wife was perhaps rather too keen to comment to the press.

I am not sure Vicky Pryce made the right call.

Perhaps a marriage has broken down, but you normally want to have a relationship with your ex-partner (especially as in Marina's case, there are children to consider as well).

One can take positions on other people’s personal relationships, and it does provide character evidence.
But unless they’re in a position of significant influence, who cares ?

dixiedean

eek said:

alex. said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..

Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?

A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....

Yes. The real polling, as opposed to the hypothetical, whilst swinging wildly, has been consistent on one thing since the last GE. That there will be another hung Parliament.
Worth noting also. THREE different parties have led the national polling since the Tories last did.

HYUFD

In some ways it is good that Hunt will put Boris through his paces, as Brown and May found out not having to make your case against an able opponent to the membership does not help you when you get the job or in a future general election campaign

HYUFD

CarlottaVance said:

The Sun....totally behind Boris....

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691

If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit Party

YBarddCwsc

Nigelb said:

YBarddCwsc said:

SandyRentool said:

Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....

When David Blunkett was having rather well publicised difficulties with his relationships, his first wife honourably refused to comment, despite being offered tabloid money. I rather admired her for it.

When Chris Huhne ran into marital problems, his wife was perhaps rather too keen to comment to the press.

I am not sure Vicky Pryce made the right call.

Perhaps a marriage has broken down, but you normally want to have a relationship with your ex-partner (especially as in Marina's case, there are children to consider as well).

One can take positions on other people’s personal relationships, and it does provide character evidence.
But unless they’re in a position of significant influence, who cares ?

I am pointing out that Marina may not want to involve herself by publicly commenting.

(Huhne and Blunkett were in positions of significant influence when their ex-wives were invited to comment).

CarlottaVance

Wonder when Boris proxys will go negative on Hunt....

HYUFD

SandyRentool said:

Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....

Trump did too, did not stop him

alex.

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Sun....totally behind Boris....

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691

If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit Party

Do you have contacts on the Sun's editorial board?

HYUFD

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

The_Taxman

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Sean_F

dixiedean said:

eek said:

alex. said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..

Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?

A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....

Yes. The real polling, as opposed to the hypothetical, whilst swinging wildly, has been consistent on one thing since the last GE. That there will be another hung Parliament.
Worth noting also. THREE different parties have led the national polling since the Tories last did.

I would expect quite a shift from TBP to Conservatives under the new leader, but in turn, that will probably prompt a shift from Lib Dem and Green to Labour.

TheScreamingEagles

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Sun....totally behind Boris....

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691

If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit Party

Do you have contacts on the Sun's editorial board?

I do.

Well one current member and the former editor of thesun.co.uk

But as the Queen told me, she hates name droppers.

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Sun....totally behind Boris....

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691

If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit Party

Do you have contacts on the Sun's editorial board?

But as the Queen told me, she hates name droppers.

Norman St John Stevas & Princess Margaret.....

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.

If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide, but it isn't and he won't.

HYUFD

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

Andrew

HYUFD said:

Trump did too, did not stop him

Trump has countless millions inherited from daddy he used to tie them into confidentiality agreements. The tabloids published his one with Ivana years ago iirc.

alex.

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.

If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide.

Disappointed that GO appears to be backing Johnson?

CarlottaVance

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

Polling evidence?

The_Taxman

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Sun....totally behind Boris....

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691

If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit Party

Your obsessed with the Brexit party and polling!

Politics is much more complicated than you think. The Sun backs the party it thinks will win, the Brexit supporting media were artificially boosting Farage to put pressure on the Tories to ditch May. They wont do that in a GE.

Nigelb

YBarddCwsc said:

Nigelb said:

YBarddCwsc said:

SandyRentool said:

Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....

When David Blunkett was having rather well publicised difficulties with his relationships, his first wife honourably refused to comment, despite being offered tabloid money. I rather admired her for it.

When Chris Huhne ran into marital problems, his wife was perhaps rather too keen to comment to the press.

I am not sure Vicky Pryce made the right call.

Perhaps a marriage has broken down, but you normally want to have a relationship with your ex-partner (especially as in Marina's case, there are children to consider as well).

One can take positions on other people’s personal relationships, and it does provide character evidence.
But unless they’re in a position of significant influence, who cares ?

I am pointing out that Marina may not want to involve herself by publicly commenting..

I am not one of those particularly excited by the prospect.

Jonathan

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Vinny

Hunt comes over as diffident, weak and characterless. He cannot make that up by appearing articulate. Mr Smithson, the job of PM requires personality.

nichomar

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

TheScreamingEagles

alex. said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.

If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide.

Disappointed that GO appears to be backing Johnson?

Not really. I understand George's logic, only a Leaver can delay Brexit going forward, and so long as we've exited the EU by the next general election Leave voter will not hold it against the Tories (we hope!)

HYUFD

Andrew said:

HYUFD said:

Trump did too, did not stop him

Trump has countless millions inherited from daddy he used to tie them into confidentiality agreements. The tabloids published his one with Ivana years ago iirc.

Trump was accused of sexual assault and of rape, he still won

HYUFD

CarlottaVance said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

Polling evidence?

Comres, Boris wins 395 seats, Hunt wins 224

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1138551562522046464

nichomar

HYUFD said:

Andrew said:

HYUFD said:

Trump did too, did not stop him

Trump has countless millions inherited from daddy he used to tie them into confidentiality agreements. The tabloids published his one with Ivana years ago iirc.

Trump was accused of sexual assault and of rape, he still won

Oh that’s fine then as long as you can buy off your accusers it’s fine to have a rapist etc as head of state?

HYUFD

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

Andrew said:

HYUFD said:

Trump did too, did not stop him

Trump has countless millions inherited from daddy he used to tie them into confidentiality agreements. The tabloids published his one with Ivana years ago iirc.

Trump was accused of sexual assault and of rape, he still won

Oh that’s fine then as long as you can buy off your accusers it’s fine to have a rapist etc as head of state?

I said accused not convicted and that is up to the voters

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

HYUFD

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So that will still be a no then

The_Taxman

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

Almost right:

Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.

dixiedean

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

eek said:

alex. said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..

Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?

A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....

Yes. The real polling, as opposed to the hypothetical, whilst swinging wildly, has been consistent on one thing since the last GE. That there will be another hung Parliament.
Worth noting also. THREE different parties have led the national polling since the Tories last did.

I would expect quite a shift from TBP to Conservatives under the new leader, but in turn, that will probably prompt a shift from Lib Dem and Green to Labour.

Agreed. With the caveat that I would also expect large movements of Lab and Green to LDs anywhere they could be seen to be the main challenger. Tactical voting in other words.

alex.

What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So that will still be a no then

Perhaps your vote is a blank cheque, mine is not. I’ll wait to see what happens. The world is upside down. Hunt is not a complete no. I could not vote for Boris.

Big_G_NorthWales

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.

Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possible

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.

Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.

HYUFD

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.

Actually of the top 10 Tory target seats for the next general election 8 are in Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and only 1 is a London Remain seat, Kensington

JackW

Vinny said:

Hunt comes over as diffident, weak and characterless. He cannot make that up by appearing articulate. Mr Smithson, the job of PM requires personality.

Jeremy Corbyn has personalty too but I'd rather hope we didn't have a clown as Leader of the Opposition and a buffoon as Prime Minster.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

Almost right:

Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.

Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain did

Big_G_NorthWales

alex. said:

What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.

Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.

So 2 votes for Hunt here

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex. said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.

If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide.

Disappointed that GO appears to be backing Johnson?

Not really. I understand George's logic, only a Leaver can delay Brexit going forward, and so long as we've exited the EU by the next general election Leave voter will not hold it against the Tories (we hope!)

I thought he was trolling.

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So that will still be a no then

Perhaps your vote is a blank cheque, mine is not. I’ll wait to see what happens. The world is upside down. Hunt is not a complete no. I could not vote for Boris.

Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit Party

Benpointer

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.

Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.

I find it surprising given his wealth he didn't come back business class.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.

Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.

So 2 votes for Hunt here

No surprise there

HYUFD

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.

Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.

Romney was supposedly a normal, decent family man too.

Fat lot of good it did him in 2012

Sean_F

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.

Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possible

I don't think he'd win 395 seats either. I do think he would boost the Conservative vote, in key areas.

To me, it's a bit like choosing Jeremy Thorpe as leader. He certainly appeals to a lot of voters, but, there's always the chance of a big scandal emerging.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex. said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.

If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide.

Disappointed that GO appears to be backing Johnson?

Not really. I understand George's logic, only a Leaver can delay Brexit going forward, and so long as we've exited the EU by the next general election Leave voter will not hold it against the Tories (we hope!)

I thought he was trolling.

Nope, it is too serious for that.

Like a lot of us he's utterly heartbroken about what has become of the Tory party.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1142492339790856193?s=20


https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1142492845334507522?s=20

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So that will still be a no then

Perhaps your vote is a blank cheque, mine is not. I’ll wait to see what happens. The world is upside down. Hunt is not a complete no. I could not vote for Boris.

Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit Party

You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.

Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.

So 2 votes for Hunt here

No surprise there

And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizons

Andrew

Benpointer said:

I find it surprising given his wealth he didn't come back business class.

Family of 5 business class ....... ouch. 15k return? Maybe 5 times a year?

Even if you're properly rich, that stings a bit :-)

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So that will still be a no then

Perhaps your vote is a blank cheque, mine is not. I’ll wait to see what happens. The world is upside down. Hunt is not a complete no. I could not vote for Boris.

Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit Party

You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.

Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.

Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win

alex.

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

Almost right:

Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.

Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain did

Lucky for Johnson that his views on abortion don't matter.

OldKingCole

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.

Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possible

I don't think he'd win 395 seats either. I do think he would boost the Conservative vote, in key areas.

To me, it's a bit like choosing Jeremy Thorpe as leader. He certainly appeals to a lot of voters, but, there's always the chance of a big scandal emerging.

I went to a Lib conference in the mid 80's where there were calls to 'get Jeremy back'!

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So that will still be a no then

Perhaps your vote is a blank cheque, mine is not. I’ll wait to see what happens. The world is upside down. Hunt is not a complete no. I could not vote for Boris.

Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit Party

You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.

Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.

Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win

Well Boris is hoodwinking you and many others. He will only do that which is good for Boris and he is not to be trusted

MarkHopkins

Boris may save the Toies. Maybe.

Hunt won't.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.

Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.

So 2 votes for Hunt here

No surprise there

And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizons

I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.

IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke

nichomar

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy step too far. As was pointed out before you have to actually get candidates in place with financial transparency, you have to get said candidates to polling day preaching at least a similar message on issues other than brexit. You then actually have to then get the voters out to vote, especially if voting isn’t an ingrained habit.
It’s bloody hard work working an election that requires people who have a vague idea about what they are doing and candidates who are not going to shoot the party in the foot. If you have a background in campaigning in marginals or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.

HYUFD

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

Almost right:

Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.

Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain did

Lucky for Johnson that his views on abortion don't matter.

Hunt actually wants to reduce the abortion time limit

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.

Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.

So 2 votes for Hunt here

No surprise there

And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizons

I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.

IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke

And how did that work out

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So that will still be a no then

Perhaps your vote is a blank cheque, mine is not. I’ll wait to see what happens. The world is upside down. Hunt is not a complete no. I could not vote for Boris.

Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit Party

You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.

Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.

Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win

You are lost. Hunt is competent. Boris is not. If you want Brexit you’re better off with Hunt.

HYUFD

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy step too far. As was pointed out before you have to actually get candidates in place with financial transparency, you have to get said candidates to polling day preaching at least a similar message on issues other than brexit. You then actually have to then get the voters out to vote, especially if voting isn’t an ingrained habit.
It’s bloody hard work working an election that requires people who have a vague idea about what they are doing and candidates who are not going to shoot the party in the foot. If you have a background in campaigning in marginals or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.

If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017

alex.

HYUFD said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

Almost right:

Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.

Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain did

Lucky for Johnson that his views on abortion don't matter.

Hunt actually wants to reduce the abortion time limit

Whoosh.

Sean_F

OldKingCole said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.

Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possible

I don't think he'd win 395 seats either. I do think he would boost the Conservative vote, in key areas.

To me, it's a bit like choosing Jeremy Thorpe as leader. He certainly appeals to a lot of voters, but, there's always the chance of a big scandal emerging.

I went to a Lib conference in the mid 80's where there were calls to 'get Jeremy back'!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9MSka2l51A

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.

Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.

So 2 votes for Hunt here

No surprise there

And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizons

I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.

IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke

And how did that work out

The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillors

Sean_F

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

Almost right:

Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.

Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain did

Lucky for Johnson that his views on abortion don't matter.

Hunt actually wants to reduce the abortion time limit

Whoosh.

I bet Boris doesn't.

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So that will still be a no then

Perhaps your vote is a blank cheque, mine is not. I’ll wait to see what happens. The world is upside down. Hunt is not a complete no. I could not vote for Boris.

Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit Party

You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.

Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.

Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win

You are lost. Hunt is competent. Boris is not. If you want Brexit you’re better off with Hunt.

Why? Hunt's policy is he will competently renegotiate the backstop.

The EU will competently say no.

Hunt will then competently extend Article 50 again rather than leave with No Deal or try for a GB FTA.

Hunt will then competently lead the Tories to be slaughtered by Farage and Corbyn at the next general election as a result

OldKingCole

Sean_F said:

OldKingCole said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

I think Hunt comes across as PM material.

Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.

I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....

Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.

Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election

I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.

Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possible

I don't think he'd win 395 seats either. I do think he would boost the Conservative vote, in key areas.

To me, it's a bit like choosing Jeremy Thorpe as leader. He certainly appeals to a lot of voters, but, there's always the chance of a big scandal emerging.

I went to a Lib conference in the mid 80's where there were calls to 'get Jeremy back'!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9MSka2l51A

Neither of the non-Thorpes are me!

justin124

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.

Sean_F

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.

It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.

nichomar

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy step too far. As was pointed out before you have to actually get candidates in place with financial transparency, you have to get said candidates to polling day preaching at least a similar message on issues other than brexit. You then actually have to then get the voters out to vote, especially if voting isn’t an ingrained habit.
It’s bloody hard work working an election that requires people who have a vague idea about what they are doing and candidates who are not going to shoot the party in the foot. If you have a background in campaigning in marginals or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.

If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017

Ok then if Johnson is Tory leader they are all going down the polling station to vote Tory because it’s ‘boris’. Good luck with that it’s about as likely as the TBP winning more than ten seats.

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.

It will not be a Brexit election if we actually Brexit before the next general election as both parties promised before the last general election.

If we are still in the EU by the next general election then Brexit will dominate

blueblue

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.

So will you be voting for a Hunt led Tories then?

Infinitely more likely than Boris. A man with zero integrity, unfit for high office who needs to be stopped.

So did Labour members elect the leader that Conservative voters woud prefer, or did they go with the person who made their socialist hearts sing?

kle4

Sean_F said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.

It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.

Indeed, and quite obviously so given the emphasis on moral goodness of various positions, the importance of belief (and pureness of that belief - many are the leavers who are not leavey enough, or remainers who have accepted not remaining, who are derided, and the preposterous assertion that only if someone believed in it 3 years ago can they be trusted, vs whether they believe in it now), the trust that some magical solution will be found to leave/remain, that any price is worth paying, and so on and so forth.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.

Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.

So 2 votes for Hunt here

No surprise there

And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizons

I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.

IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke

And how did that work out

The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillors

Right now you are living your own fantasy to be fair

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.

It will not be a Brexit election if we actually Brexit before the next general election as both parties promised before the last general election.

If we are still in the EU by the next general election then Brexit will dominate

If (yes I know) Brexit is half the disaster forecast then the next GE WILL be about Brexit

kle4

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy step too far. As was pointed out before you have to actually get candidates in place with financial transparency, you have to get said candidates to polling day preaching at least a similar message on issues other than brexit. You then actually have to then get the voters out to vote, especially if voting isn’t an ingrained habit.
It’s bloody hard work working an election that requires people who have a vague idea about what they are doing and candidates who are not going to shoot the party in the foot. If you have a background in campaigning in marginals or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.

If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017

That does rather depend on what Boris will mange to do and how much he might disappoint on his promises in the initial months, so he will need to be careful, but yes he starts out having a better chance of getting those groups out.

tlg86

Sean_F said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.

That's where the analysis falls.

On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.

The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....

No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.

If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris

They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it on

Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labour

I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.

It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.

2021 Census could have some interesting entries in the religion field.