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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Happy anniversary. Brexit three years on from the referendum
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Happy anniversary. Brexit three years on from the referendum
Year four in the Big Brexit house and the housemates are not getting any happier. The referendum vote saw off one Prime Minister immediately and a second is shortly to be evicted from Number 10 before Britain has left the EU. It’s entirely possible that Theresa May’s replacement might be ousted before Brexit is implemented too.
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It seems that many Conservatives thought they had better ideas.
I wonder how many of them are now regretting their self-indulgent madness during the winter.
Anyway I have VAT returns to do today and a pitch to prepare. So have a good day all.
Oh - not that sort of pitch!
[1]: absolute numbers: are we talking about those who voted R/L, or currently want to R/L
[2] to be more precise, variance, but's let's not overcomplicate things.
This period has been destablising, damaging to the economy, bad for GBs reputation, and many other bad things. It has not been so bad as many imagined though. Which is lucky for YOU - the arsing about and doing everything other than deliver on the referendum case has been very fortunate indeed that they've not done more damage.
Slightly tongue in cheek (sorry). Nonetheless we all decided to have a referendum, and we have to all get ourselves out of the stupid mess. There has to be something you can call 'Brexit'.
Either Hunt or Boris can, and I think will, just set a deadline. No-deal Brexit is far from ideal, but it'll do. The EU will be falling over itself to fix the situation. The EU is after all an institution where 'the deal' is everything. They can't not have a deal.
The No Dealers in Parliament have played this with a straight bat. They've said all along that they wanted No Deal. Those in Parliament who pretend to want a deal, but voted against the deal have no such excuse.
How many could rationally explain what they what.
How many could give details as to what will need to be done.
How many will be willing to take any responsibility for what happens.
However if they truly want to avoid a border in Ireland the way to do that is to act like grown ups. Remove the imperious backstop from the WDA, enter a transition (which keeps Ireland's border open) and deal with the Irish border in transition as part of the future relationship.
If they don't want to do that, then so be it, they can bring about the border they pretend to want to avoid. They're no better than those MPs who pretend to want to take no deal off the table but voted against the deal.
MPs: If you don't want no deal then vote for the deal.
EU: If you don't want a no deal border then offer a deal that can be accepted.
It isn't rocket science.
It probably needs to get worse before it gets better. I am 50 / 50 on whether it gets better fast enough to save the union. The Brexit bonus if anything is starting to bear fruit up here. While England is being shunned Scotland is awash with Europeans. There is no doubt that the Europeans will do all they can to keep Scotland in the EU.
But beyond all that is the real question.
How many of them are willing to stop Brexit if it isn't Juche Brexit.
How many are willing to destroy Brexit in order to 'save' Brexit.
For how many is Brexit now something which is no longer of the physical world but has instead become an ethereal belief system ?
God, VAT is dull. Have just finalised my company's first year accounts: profitable - yay! - and tax to pay - less yay! So I hope you're all suitably grateful.
Need to get work as builders are - and this has come as a complete shock, as you can imagine - costing far more than anticipated.
A contender for shite comment of the day.
Take a look at the graph here on change in employment per region:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-48664613
The only region in which employment has fallen during the last five years is Scotland.
If a few Tories announced this intention in advance (not unlikely) whose name would TM give to HM the Queen to be the person to try to form a government?
This scenario looks to me more than an outside possibility.
One: "Bugger it - I really wanted to be PM."
Other: "Bugger it - why do I want to be PM?"
That seems to be nobody - so you revert back to Boris followed by a GE.
Hunt?
Andy why should the EU change a deal which they were told is acceptable...
Remain 52%
Leave 48%
If MPs want to "take no deal off the table" then backing the deal does that.
The EU should change the deal because they were told it was unacceptable by Parliament, including by both government and those opposition MPs you're backing opposing it.
Together with an inattention to detail and laziness which she doesn't have.
He might be better at delegating though.
Would you like to share some cake?
Oh wait.
Only one person decided to have a referendum and he’s fucked off to his shepherd’s hut rather than sort out the mess he’d left behind.
Twat.
I have genuinely forgotten - if I ever knew to begin with.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1142795534794678272
Universal celebration and bonhomie....
For as long as Grieve and co hold the Tory whip they should be counted as backing the Tories in a confidence vote. Informal letters or announcements should not trump actions in Parliament.
If they want to vote against Boris in a confidence motion they can do so but the price for doing so is to lose the Tory whip. They don't or shouldn't be able to hold onto the whip but be counted as being against the Tory leader.
If Grieve wants to be counted as No Confidence then he should defect from the Tories and resign the whip. Anything less than that should not count.
Spoons only.
No, sorry, that was flippant - an impressive new building in the heart of Ipswich?
I'm sure of it; HYUFD says so.
That is the decision we democratically took, just a year after the Scots democratically took the decision to remain bound to UK-wide national elections despite knowing full well that this was the PM's pre-announced intention.
https://twitter.com/UK_Together/status/506899714923843584
My first observation is it would have taken two years even if Article 50 had been triggered on the morning of June 24th 2016. It really does impose a frighteningly tight timetable for countries tom disengage from the EU and of course all we have so far is a Withdrawal Agreement (WA).
As I understand it, the EU are not prepared to re-negotiate so we have what we have which hasn't got through the Commons three times so far. Both Johnson and Hunt seem to think because they aren't May, the whole process can be re-started and a full re-negotiation conducted.
The only option is therefore to try to change the parliamentary arithmetic to construct a majority for the WA - that seems to be the endgame for Boris's supporters but 26% isn't an election winning position albeit in a tight four party race. There's little prospect of TBP supporting a minority Conservative Government committed to passing the WA. Whether other parties would or could support the WA in a new Parliament is open to question.
Both Johnson and Hunt know the longer this goes on the worse it gets for the Conservatives. IF the EU offer another extension (to say March 2022) neither could accept so we would be led into leaving without a WA by the Conservative Government who would own any and all consequences. If they tried to accept, I suspect the Conservative Party would be in very serious trouble.
So it's the huge gamble of a GE which might yet save the Conservatives - they could win a majority though that seems unlikely but if the opposition win enough seats to form a Government, what then? Corbyn's equivocation notwithstanding, it would be the equivalent of playing "pass the hand grenade" (with pin already removed).
Some say the French circuit was designed by Horlicks.
Modestly green result, though.
And the icing on the cake is that a recession is due.
March showed a -0.2% year-over-year change, April was -0.6% and May was -1.4%. Bear in mind that these are all nominal, not real, numbers, so the real deceleration is worse.
Now, you can (and would probably correct to) argue that the UK needs to rebalance. But the best way to do this is via growing exports, while holding consumer spending to a lower growth path.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rgDvP39Lqw
The Yes campaign should have destroyed that line instantly by saying that the government was planning a Brexit referendum.
So while exports have dramatically increased from £520bn in 2015 to £634bn in 2018 the UK's consumption has also increased.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbh/mret
Based on Opinium, Labour would be in a very strong position but the equivocation of Corbyn's position makes the prospect of a deal with the LDs and the SNP far from certain. I don't know any LD who wants to prop up a Corbyn Government so it's highly possible there'll still be no majority for Revoke, No Deal or the WA even in a radically different looking Commons.
Fans of Boris think all he has to do is barnstorm his way up and down the country and the people will vote for him in droves - I'm much less convinced. Farage is more likely to be able to do that and it may be a strong showing by his Party will leave the rump of the Conservatives facing some awkward decisions - throw in their lot with Nigel and go for exit without a WA or pivot toward a more overtly revoke/remain position.
https://twitter.com/LabourRichard/status/1142725037113401345
It’s like if you agree to buy a car, but then call home, whereupon your wife tells you you’re paying too much and she hates the colour. You put the phone down and explain that the deal has to change as a result. The salesman, quite rightly, points out that you should have sorted that out with your wife first - a deal is already agreed that’s in his best interest and he isn’t budging - plenty of people are queuing up to buy his cars and in fact he has analog of interest in the very one in question. Now you have nothing to drive because you sold your old car to him on the way in having been assured by all and sundry that getting a new one on advantageous terms would be the “easiest deal in history”.
So, come November, Britain will be standing outside the dealership in the pissing rain with the alternatives of buying a different car or getting drenched while walking to a destination unknown. We’ll call a few old mates in Australia and New Zealand for a lift but they’re busy with their new mates having moved out of the neighbourhood a few years ago. Uncle Sam says he’ll lend us the money for a cab but he needs a little favour .
How long do you think any UK government will accept that before going to tax cuts and spending increases.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1142473947772063745?s=21
Key point about hypothetical polls is that most people don't know much about Hunt at the moment.
Suppose Hunt did beat Boris. If that happened, it would almost certainly be because Hunt had performed very well in the leadership campaign. It would also be a huge feather in his cap to have beaten Boris against massive odds. All of that would in turn make Hunt a much more highly regarded figure - implying much better ratings.
People may say he would still lose more votes to Brexit Party than Boris - but remember every floater he gets from Lab (or LD) is worth double in a Con/Lab (or LD) marginal.
His appeal could be a little bit like Major back in 1992 - understated, decent, straightforward, answering questions directly etc.
Britain is a country. I'd prefer it if it wasn't but it was YOUR [collective as Scots] choice to keep it so. Just as if we had voted Remain in 2016 then whatever changes came to the EU in 2017 we as Brits would have chosen to accept that.
We haven't bought the car yes and nothing is agreed. If the car dealer can't reach the wife's demands then we just walk out and leave without a deal and he loses his commission.
Be hilarious if the Welsh were brave enough to make the jump before the Scots.