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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The standout moment of the 2nd Democratic debate and campaign
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The standout moment of the 2nd Democratic debate and campaign so far – Kamala Harris taking on Joe Biden on race
My immediate betting reaction after watching the second WH2020 Democratic debate was to place a bet on California Senator, Kamala Harris for the nomination.
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I know she's going after Democrats but there must be a lot of voters out there who don't want their health insurance compulsorily replaced with Medicare.
Biden and Sanders - old, grumpy white men, are not the opposite of Trump.
Harris, Warren and Buttigieg are all, in their own ways, Trump's opposite.
I think this race could very quickly end up as Harris vs Warren vs Buttigieg vs AN Other.
As an aside, I think Beto O'Rourke is going to be either Harris or Warren's VP pick (assuming one of them wins the nomination).
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1144452863424229378
Biden and Sanders need to be out out to pasture.
- Raise NI threshold to £12,500 (cost £11bn)
- Raise 40p IT threshold to £80,000 (cost £9.6bn)
- Abolish Stamp Duty on all homes under £500k (cost not stated)
- Cut Stamp Duty rates on more expensive homes (cost not stated)
- Raise annual investment allowance from current £1m (cost not stated)
- Recruit 20,000 more police officers (cost not stated)
"At hustings in Bournemouth yesterday Mr Johnson said that he would be “very, very progressive” on taxation, adding: “I believe strongly in living within our means. But there is now some headroom. Look at what we did in London, where we massively expanded the living wage. We should be lifting thresholds for those on low incomes, helping them out of tax.”"
Whether all of the above is living within our means - well we'll have to see but it does seem a bit doubtful!
This contrasts with the first debate where the consensus was that Warren won on policy.
It suggests two different types of debate, so I'd not want to go all-in until seeing whether Warren can mix it and Harris can argue on policy. Likewise the others.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/us/politics/factcheck-democratic-debate.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
https://twitter.com/march_change/status/1144262837461762054
A long way to go though. This is a marathon not a sprint, and I cannot see Biden or Sanders going the distance.
I suspect that Marianne cannot last, but it is a pity:
https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1144462632662945793?s=19
https://www.ft.com/content/878d2344-98f0-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36
She seems to have come to life with a rehearsed set piece attack, which is great, but it isn't a sign that she is suddenly going to become a more charismatic candidate off the cuff. She did well with her moment but it was a specific thing that had happened to her, it seems unlikely that she has other things she can turn into moments as powerful as that one.
If she is usually dull then she could easily go back to being dull without set pieces as good as this one.
I clicked cus I thought they might have made it free - I got the highlights on the tv though - liberalism is dead
1. UK citizens living in another EU country who are registered and known about and measurable.
2. UK citizens living in another EU country below the radar - there are a lot of these on the Costas and other parts of the Med and the Algarve, but how many no-one knows, for obvious reasons.
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
Brexit will not affect 1 (except, possibly, a No Deal). It will affect 2 and 3, and No Deal will bugger them. Overall, it’s impossible to know just how many Brits make use of FoM beyond holiday and business trips - or how many have aspirations to. It’s something we’ll understand much better post-Brexit.
Paging @TheScreamingEagles
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1144201903980650496?s=21
Steve Jobs was a really nasty piece of work - and the corporate culture of Apple embraced that nastiness. It's a shame that people lionise him.
Brexit is more akin to revolution than evolution: which is why so many of its proponents are so unconcerned about its effects.
Well, now I'm glad I put some money on this Harris lady (thanks to a tip from someone called *checks notes* Mike Smithson. Sounds like a smart fellow).
I think that the strength of her ground operation in California, which is voting early this time, gives her a considerable advantage. Campaigning in any meaningful way there will be prohibitively expensive and sort out the wheat from the chaff. Although the media will no doubt focus on the traditional Iowa type States I think California will prove key and she has a big home advantage.
But if she is usually quite boring then I can't see why she wouldn't now revert to that, her good attack had specific circumstances related to her that made it powerful, this doesn't seem like something she can easily repeat in future debates.
How was she in the debate aside for her one big moment?
As a hedge I'm backing her at 10+ in the presidential market.
4.5/10.5 is too big a gap right now there even though I think she'd be an incredibly weak Dem candidate.
https://twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1144165169171484673?s=21
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1144165880340897797
But she’s absolutely got into the core of Trump’s political MO. You identify the fear in people and you amplify it, before presenting yourself as the solution
I didn't do either so that's a wash. Anyway I'll repeat a candidate polling 7% who has Bernie, Warren and Biden above her (With Biden near 30 odd) should not be the 7-2 favourite at this point no matter how much of a twitter storm she's creating.
If twitter was the sole guide, Bernie would have won the 2016 Democrat primary 80-20 or something like that.
And match the EU?
Who knows?
I'll get my coat...
You gentlemen can say, "hey gal, finish them floors!
Get upstairs! what's wrong with you! earn your keep here!
You toss me your tips
And look out to the ships
But I'm counting your heads
As I'm making the beds
Cause there's nobody gonna sleep here, honey
Nobody
But, then, who can blame Jenny?
The blame lies with the gentlemen who treated her so contemptuously. Ditto Brexit.
Someone, sooner for later, will turn “Anyway, my time is up” into a political ad.
Judging when to lay is tricky.
I'm considering a comparable hedge by putting some on Boris at 4 for 50-60% of the vote and 2.5 for 60-70% (I'm considerable greener on Hunt than Boris and am thinking of trying to get a more balanced result).
Though I can see that taxes on consumers may make up part of the Boris deficit, and reign in some of our consumerist culture. Probably a good thing.
Why?
They've said they will.
Maybe just put a bit more on boris??? I m hardly an expert on these matters but I appreciate u asking for my input
Just back Boris in the Tory leader market at 1.15 till your greens are levelled up.
Superb timing by me.
TUD?
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1144498067267153921
1.15 is the 1.03 real chance + the risk of it emerging that he's a murderer or something.
*sighs*
Well, I am green either way (notionally, at least, I did back a variety of others so I suspect I'm just barely green with Boris).
That said, we all tend to overrate the importance of single exchanges on the race in the medium term. Laying the favo(u)rite generally makes sense early on in crowded races.
EU citizens arriving in the UK who wish to stay longer than 3 months and apply for European Temporary Leave to Remain will be subject to identity, criminality and security checks before being granted permission to stay for three years.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-outlines-no-deal-arrangements-for-eu-citizens
The EU hasn't reciprocated.....