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SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Polling Matters podcast on the US Democratic debate reaction & more on Hunt vs Johnson

On this week’s Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to discuss the latest developments in the race to face Donald Trump in 2020 following this week’s Democratic debates.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    First.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Second like Boris
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Am I the only PBer who is trying to gain weight? Just under 10 stone and I'd really like to be 8lbs heavier.

    PBers generally a sedentary bunch who are thus more likely to put on weight? It doesn't make sense to me either.

    I've put a stone back on after losing 3.5, I do need to start being more disciplined. Hey, I did just go for a quick jog in the sweltering heat. I like to do shortish bursts.
    That's not fair. I go to the gym three or four times a week. But I like chocolate and wine too much.
    One has to have at least one vice. If it must be food, there are worse ones to have.

    I do hate exercise though.
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    It always seems odd that the SW is so Brexity, yet also so amenable to the LDs in these scenarios.
    That might tell you a bit about how good the prediction is. :p
    Thing is, I kind of believe it. ALthough the LDs still have not even recovered to second in many SW areas in the parliamentaries, they just seem a better fit than Labour in most of it. A Tory collapse and LD rise could see some big changes even with BXP. The Greens did well enough in the Euros that not only Bristol was voting for them too, and in a GE alliances might be made to benefit each other.

    kle4 said:

    Without being funny, as Williamson is one of the few MPs who would indeed be a worse leader than any others in the Commons, is it procedurally fair on him to have it restored, then withdrawn for the offence he was just given a warning about?
    More to the point. Vaz wanted him to regain the Whip as MPs only have two weeks to announce they want to be reselected for GE.

    Williamson can't if he has not got the Whip iirc.

    Great news for the rest of the country. Terrible for anti-Semites everywhere.
    Heartbreaking.
    IanB2 said:

    Second like Boris

    In your dreams, unfortunately. Unless you mean a GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Am I the only PBer who is trying to gain weight? Just under 10 stone and I'd really like to be 8lbs heavier.

    Most people would be delighted to be 10 stones. I certainly would.
    No thanks, that would be overshoot.

    But the secret of losing weight is big lunch, no (or little) dinner.
    I actually find that to be true too. In fairness, I was only able to do that once I started having breakfast, which has never been my preference.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited June 2019
    That interview on RT for the wingnut in chief and his readmittance set for monday won't have aged well.....
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    AndyJS said:
    Vaz - who should be undergoing some sort of investigation into his own behaviour, but had it stopped because he was too ill - is apparently well enough to sit in judgement on others. And then complain about the decision that he made.

    You really couldn't make it up. It has gone way beyond satire
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Am I the only PBer who is trying to gain weight? Just under 10 stone and I'd really like to be 8lbs heavier.

    Most people would be delighted to be 10 stones. I certainly would.
    No thanks, that would be overshoot.

    But the secret of losing weight is big lunch, no (or little) dinner.
    I actually find that to be true too. In fairness, I was only able to do that once I started having breakfast, which has never been my preference.
    Indeed. Breakfast and lunch you can work off during the day. Dinner is surplus calories that will make you fat while you sleep.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    Talking about tweets that haven't aged well...

    From last July

    https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1020255794024132609
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    must be off...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    AndyJS said:
    Vaz - who should be undergoing some sort of investigation into his own behaviour, but had it stopped because he was too ill - is apparently well enough to sit in judgement on others. And then complain about the decision that he made.

    You really couldn't make it up. It has gone way beyond satire
    Yes, the moderates have been totally embarrassed by his actions.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Isn’t it that the deals will be more aligned with the UK’s interests? The EU have to negotiate on behalf of many countries.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Isn’t it that the deals will be more aligned with the UK’s interests? The EU have to negotiate on behalf of many countries.
    No, I distinctly remember being assured by numerous Leavers that the EU hadn't struck deals with Japan and Mercosur and Britain could by itself. Those hypothetical trade deals are years away while there are deals on the table from which Britain could already benefit.

    Still, let them eat blue passports.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Isn’t it that the deals will be more aligned with the UK’s interests? The EU have to negotiate on behalf of many countries.
    No, I distinctly remember being assured by numerous Leavers that the EU hadn't struck deals with Japan and Mercosur and Britain could by itself. Those hypothetical trade deals are years away while there are deals on the table from which Britain could already benefit.

    Still, let them eat blue passports.
    Those were specifically given as examples? Japan, maybe, but Mercosur? In any case, just because the EU has a deal, doesn’t mean it is aligned with the UK’s interests. I doubt the EU only has the UK in mind when signing these.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Isn’t it that the deals will be more aligned with the UK’s interests? The EU have to negotiate on behalf of many countries.
    No, I distinctly remember being assured by numerous Leavers that the EU hadn't struck deals with Japan and Mercosur and Britain could by itself. Those hypothetical trade deals are years away while there are deals on the table from which Britain could already benefit.

    Still, let them eat blue passports.
    Those were specifically given as examples? Japan, maybe, but Mercosur? In any case, just because the EU has a deal, doesn’t mean it is aligned with the UK’s interests. I doubt the EU only has the UK in mind when signing these.
    The choice is between something now, negotiated by a much large bloc with correspondingly greater negotiating power, and nothing now with the possibility maybe in a few years time if both parties can agree of something negotiated by a much smaller individual country by such geniuses as brought "we hold all the cards" and "the German carmakers will come to our rescue" to us.

    It's not the most compelling pitch to the Dragon's Den. No wonder they relied upon stirring up untrue fears of millions of Muslims being poised to descend on Britain.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
    The moment you get into specifics,, Leavers go off the idea. So Leavers have decided after all that they would rather not do a deal with the USA, since it wants to dismember the NHS in its commercial interest.

    No doubt once they move from the abstract to the concrete, they won't be too keen on deals with China or India either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The EU seem to have been very busy with trade deals since we took the original decision to exit. Another look at the question might be in order, or a CM 2.0 relationship. I think a CM2.0 move would be better for spiking Farage personally. But the argument for ref2 can be sensibly put with all the new trade deals, things have changed.

    Remain would have to realise the median voter does not stick a FBPE # behind their name on twitter though if we were to go for another referendum.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Isn’t it that the deals will be more aligned with the UK’s interests? The EU have to negotiate on behalf of many countries.
    No, I distinctly remember being assured by numerous Leavers that the EU hadn't struck deals with Japan and Mercosur and Britain could by itself. Those hypothetical trade deals are years away while there are deals on the table from which Britain could already benefit.

    Still, let them eat blue passports.
    Those were specifically given as examples? Japan, maybe, but Mercosur? In any case, just because the EU has a deal, doesn’t mean it is aligned with the UK’s interests. I doubt the EU only has the UK in mind when signing these.
    However, to compare the existing deal that they have to the nonexistent deal that we have does contain a rather obvious problem.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
    The moment you get into specifics,, Leavers go off the idea. So Leavers have decided after all that they would rather not do a deal with the USA, since it wants to dismember the NHS in its commercial interest.

    No doubt once they move from the abstract to the concrete, they won't be too keen on deals with China or India either.
    Which leavers have made that thought journey? Some names would be good.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    The devil will be in the detail here. There was/is a lot of resistance because of agriculture, especially beef over a deal with Mercosur from 6 EU countries.

    Also it is worth noting that France still has not ratified CETA because is is still worried about Canadian Beef flooding the French market, CETA is in operation but in a provisional mode.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    The devil will be in the detail here. There was/is a lot of resistance because of agriculture, especially beef over a deal with Mercosur from 6 EU countries.

    Also it is worth noting that France still has not ratified CETA because is is still worried about Canadian Beef flooding the French market, CETA is in operation but in a provisional mode.
    Are you sure about the beef? Most of the Mercosur countries have not used all their tariff free beef quotas with the EU for some time.

    If I wasn't very busy, I'd post a link.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
    The US only has about a dozen free trade deals - South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Israel and a few others.

    AFAIK, there is no country that has a FTA with the US that does not have one with the EU. While there are lots of countries that have FTAs with the EU that do not have one with the US.

    That should tell you that it is a lot easier (typically) to get an FTA with the EU than with the US.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    Off topic: Today I attended an event where Rachel Reeves was speaking.

    Jealous, Dr Sunil?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
    The moment you get into specifics,, Leavers go off the idea. So Leavers have decided after all that they would rather not do a deal with the USA, since it wants to dismember the NHS in its commercial interest.

    No doubt once they move from the abstract to the concrete, they won't be too keen on deals with China or India either.
    Trade Deals are about negotiation not an open door to what the other side wants and if US firms want to supply pharmaceutical drugs to the NHS so be it
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    rcs1000 said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    The devil will be in the detail here. There was/is a lot of resistance because of agriculture, especially beef over a deal with Mercosur from 6 EU countries.

    Also it is worth noting that France still has not ratified CETA because is is still worried about Canadian Beef flooding the French market, CETA is in operation but in a provisional mode.
    Are you sure about the beef? Most of the Mercosur countries have not used all their tariff free beef quotas with the EU for some time.

    If I wasn't very busy, I'd post a link.
    See
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/ceta-and-mercosur-meat-quotas-expose-frances-double-standards/?utm_source=EURACTIV&utm_campaign=4ac71335e4-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_27_10_05_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c59e2fd7a9-4ac71335e4-114478043

    - so CETA is being ratified but the Brazilian deal is being resisted. The headline is provocative but in reality there French farmers have a good case - it's the same issue as will arise in a US-UK deal, that they want to export low-welfare beef ~(which is much less of an issue with Canada).
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    rcs1000 said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    The devil will be in the detail here. There was/is a lot of resistance because of agriculture, especially beef over a deal with Mercosur from 6 EU countries.

    Also it is worth noting that France still has not ratified CETA because is is still worried about Canadian Beef flooding the French market, CETA is in operation but in a provisional mode.
    Are you sure about the beef? Most of the Mercosur countries have not used all their tariff free beef quotas with the EU for some time.

    If I wasn't very busy, I'd post a link.
    Here you go

    https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-and-3-others-warn-mercosur-deal-could-destabilize-farm-sector/

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0628/1059096-mercosur/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
    The US only has about a dozen free trade deals - South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Israel and a few others.

    AFAIK, there is no country that has a FTA with the US that does not have one with the EU. While there are lots of countries that have FTAs with the EU that do not have one with the US.

    That should tell you that it is a lot easier (typically) to get an FTA with the EU than with the US.
    The US is a single country and decides its own trade policy, the EU is made of 27 countries and decides as one block
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Second like Boris

    Despite the hysteria on the previous thread I see today's Yougov has a Boris led Tory Party with a 10% lead over Labour 33% to 23% if it delivers Brexit as would a Hunt led Tories 33% to 23%.

    If Brexit is not delivered then the Brexit Party lead whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader.

    Tory voters prefer Boris to Hunt as PM 48% to 39% and Brexit Party voters prefer Boris to Hunt 69% to 17%.

    Hunt leads with Labour voters 50% to 12% for Boris and LD voters prefer Hunt to Boris 75% to 6%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
    The US only has about a dozen free trade deals - South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Israel and a few others.

    AFAIK, there is no country that has a FTA with the US that does not have one with the EU. While there are lots of countries that have FTAs with the EU that do not have one with the US.

    That should tell you that it is a lot easier (typically) to get an FTA with the EU than with the US.
    The US is a single country and decides its own trade policy, the EU is made of 27 countries and decides as one block
    So your point is that deciding as a bloc is structurally better for promoting free trade, otherwise why would the US be lagging? 🤷‍♂️
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second like Boris

    Despite the hysteria on the previous thread I see today's Yougov has a Boris led Tory Party with a 10% lead over Labour 33% to 23% if it delivers Brexit as would a Hunt led Tories 33% to 23%.

    If Brexit is not delivered then the Brexit Party lead whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
    Big IF in the middle of your first sentence. Bozo will fail to deliver same as May and then the loons will turn on him.

    Meanwhile I see that the entryists now have Gauke and Rudd in their sights.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second like Boris

    Despite the hysteria on the previous thread I see today's Yougov has a Boris led Tory Party with a 10% lead over Labour 33% to 23% if it delivers Brexit as would a Hunt led Tories 33% to 23%.

    If Brexit is not delivered then the Brexit Party lead whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
    Big IF in the middle of your first sentence. Bozo will fail to deliver same as May and then the loons will turn on him.

    Meanwhile I see that the entryists now have Gauke and Rudd in their sights.
    Boris is the only one of the 2 committed to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal in October, Hunt is prepared for further extension which opens the way to PM Farage on this poll.

    Hunt is favoured by Remainers 61% to 10% for Boris as preferred PM, Boris is preferred by Leavers 52% to 25% for Hunt.

    However if Brexit is not delivered by October Yougov gives the Brexit Party 26% against a Hunt led Tories on 21% with the LDs and Labour each on 20%.

    Against a Boris led Tory Party the Brexit Party would be on 23% with the LDs on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied on 20%.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    One thing is absolutely clear: the current LibDem leadership election is not getting close to the attention its importance deserves.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    I hope HYUFD you’re paid by the post for this spin. You’re prolific! Boris doesn’t deserve you.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    edited June 2019

    rcs1000 said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    The devil will be in the detail here. There was/is a lot of resistance because of agriculture, especially beef over a deal with Mercosur from 6 EU countries.

    Also it is worth noting that France still has not ratified CETA because is is still worried about Canadian Beef flooding the French market, CETA is in operation but in a provisional mode.
    Are you sure about the beef? Most of the Mercosur countries have not used all their tariff free beef quotas with the EU for some time.

    If I wasn't very busy, I'd post a link.
    Here you go

    https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-and-3-others-warn-mercosur-deal-could-destabilize-farm-sector/

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0628/1059096-mercosur/
    Here you go: https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/reports/Allocation Coefficients TRQs-Import.pdf

    While US and Canada have used up 100% of their tariff free beef import quotas into the EU, RoW is only at 27%.

    There are specific numbers on a per country basis.

    Or to put it another way: look at the actual numbers, not the spin.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
    The US only has about a dozen free trade deals - South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Israel and a few others.

    AFAIK, there is no country that has a FTA with the US that does not have one with the EU. While there are lots of countries that have FTAs with the EU that do not have one with the US.

    That should tell you that it is a lot easier (typically) to get an FTA with the EU than with the US.
    The US is a single country and decides its own trade policy, the EU is made of 27 countries and decides as one block
    So your point is that deciding as a bloc is structurally better for promoting free trade, otherwise why would the US be lagging? 🤷‍♂️
    Not if you want to negotiate a trade deal that solely meets your country's interests
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,742
    HYUFD said:

    Despite the hysteria on the previous thread I see today's Yougov has a Boris led Tory Party with a 10% lead over Labour 33% to 23% if it delivers Brexit as would a Hunt led Tories 33% to 23%.

    If Brexit is not delivered then the Brexit Party lead whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader.

    The significant change from last week is there is no longer any difference between a Johnson-led Conservative Party or a Hunt-led Conservative Party in terms of the ability to win a majority IF Brexit is delivered.

    Last week Boris enjoyed a significant advantage (wasn't it a 118 majority with him and a 20 seat majority with Hunt?) but Hunt has pulled himself up and eroded one part (and a significant part) of Johnson's USP.

    The key point remains if Brexit is deliveredand if you are going to cite the poll as evidence it's worth reminding everyone of that.

    That means the poll will only matter if it happens after a successful departure on 31/10 - if we haven't left or the election takes place BEFORE 31/10 with the outcome uncertain, it's a wholly different game.

    With Hunt as leader, the Conservatives are five points second behind TBP but with Boris Johnson they would be third behind TBP and the LDs and win 53 seats but could be junior partners in a TBP-led Government which would have 317 seats.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Hypothetical polls are little better than garbage - and are best ignored!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Jonathan said:

    I hope HYUFD you’re paid by the post for this spin. You’re prolific! Boris doesn’t deserve you.

    If only...the posts I do for Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    One thing is absolutely clear: the current LibDem leadership election is not getting close to the attention its importance deserves.

    Jo Swinson seems to think she is heading for number 10 judging by her tweets today so maybe a higher profile Swonson v Davey LD debate than Victoria Derbyshire yesterday morning could be on the cards
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second like Boris

    Despite the hysteria on the previous thread I see today's Yougov has a Boris led Tory Party with a 10% lead over Labour 33% to 23% if it delivers Brexit as would a Hunt led Tories 33% to 23%.

    If Brexit is not delivered then the Brexit Party lead whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
    Big IF in the middle of your first sentence. Bozo will fail to deliver same as May and then the loons will turn on him.

    Meanwhile I see that the entryists now have Gauke and Rudd in their sights.
    How are the deselection league tables? Have the Corbynistas or the Brexiteers slung out more moderate MPs so far?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1144657568259813378

    One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.

    Only the USA, China, India and the majority of the global economy to go then
    The US only has about a dozen free trade deals - South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Israel and a few others.

    AFAIK, there is no country that has a FTA with the US that does not have one with the EU. While there are lots of countries that have FTAs with the EU that do not have one with the US.

    That should tell you that it is a lot easier (typically) to get an FTA with the EU than with the US.
    The US is a single country and decides its own trade policy, the EU is made of 27 countries and decides as one block
    So your point is that deciding as a bloc is structurally better for promoting free trade, otherwise why would the US be lagging? 🤷‍♂️
    Not if you want to negotiate a trade deal that solely meets your country's interests
    It also has to meet the needs of the other countries within the area - no deals are one sided...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite the hysteria on the previous thread I see today's Yougov has a Boris led Tory Party with a 10% lead over Labour 33% to 23% if it delivers Brexit as would a Hunt led Tories 33% to 23%.

    If Brexit is not delivered then the Brexit Party lead whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader.

    The significant change from last week is there is no longer any difference between a Johnson-led Conservative Party or a Hunt-led Conservative Party in terms of the ability to win a majority IF Brexit is delivered.

    Last week Boris enjoyed a significant advantage (wasn't it a 118 majority with him and a 20 seat majority with Hunt?) but Hunt has pulled himself up and eroded one part (and a significant part) of Johnson's USP.

    The key point remains if Brexit is deliveredand if you are going to cite the poll as evidence it's worth reminding everyone of that.

    That means the poll will only matter if it happens after a successful departure on 31/10 - if we haven't left or the election takes place BEFORE 31/10 with the outcome uncertain, it's a wholly different game.

    With Hunt as leader, the Conservatives are five points second behind TBP but with Boris Johnson they would be third behind TBP and the LDs and win 53 seats but could be junior partners in a TBP-led Government which would have 317 seats.
    The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.

    If Brexit is not delivered by October then on that poll the Brexit Party would be 8 short of a majority against a Hunt led Tories and able to form a Government with the DUP and be 62 short of a majority against a Boris led Tory Party as you say (With Farage maybe making Boris Ambassador to Washington if he is feeling generous in return for the backing of the 53 rump Tory MPs)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    eek said:

    It also has to meet the needs of the other countries within the area - no deals are one sided...

    It's true that negotiating alone makes it easy to give in to the other sides demands, because you don't have to get it past anyone else.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    rcs1000 said:


    Robert

    Do you have any thoughts on these comments from this morning:


    A goods trade deficit is not evidence of a country living beyond its means. It is indicative of a country that makes its living through services and by earning money on its foreign assets. If we were living beyond our means then our net international investment position (difference between assets and liabilities) would have been becoming more negative. In fact, since 2012 it has become less negative by around £340bn and is at around the same level as a decade ago.


    Have you read my comments? I pointed out that the UK's net International investment position has increased over the last 6 years and is the same as it was a decade ago, so your statement that the NIIP "has been in decline throughout that period" is simply not correct.
    The secret to understanding the UK's international transactions is to recognise that it has extremely high gross asset and liability positions, and its foreign assets are riskier and higher return overall. Moreover, some of this return is delivered via capital gains rather than coupons or dividends, and so does not affect the BOP. Hence our consistent current account deficits but stable NIIP.
    To be honest I would rather the UK's economy was more balanced and we had a smaller trade deficit, but I don't think the current situation is unsustainable - even if it is suboptimal in many ways.
    One technical point: you cannot have a balance of payments deficit: by construction the balance of payments sums to zero.
    One final point - we have a floating currency which adjusts to maintain equilibrium. When things happen to affect our ability to earn foreign currency, it adjusts. Hence the move in 2016.

    They seem to be in contradiction to your comments about how the UK's net asset position has worsened during the last twenty years and also to what you would expect from a country which has continually run a large current account deficit.

    Not trying to be inquisitive I'm just interested. :smile:
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,742
    HYUFD said:



    The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.

    I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.

    The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.




  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.

    I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.

    The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.




    Agreed further extension screws the Tories.

    Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.

    If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.

    Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.

    Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.

    If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/what-would-it-take-labour-win-general-election-new
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited June 2019
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.

    I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.

    The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.




    Agreed further extension screws the Tories.

    Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.

    If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.

    Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.

    Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.

    If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/what-would-it-take-labour-win-general-election-new
    Look, none of us have got any idea what will happen at the next GE. Relying on hypothetical polls, potentially 3 years out, with politics in such a state of flux is utterly pointless. Do you agree HYUFD?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    If he voted for it three times why is he even eligible for deselection? CCHQ should step in.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    The dream of Brexit is in tatters. It now amounts to no more than the following: will Boris’s No Deal be sufficiently not-that-horrific to stave off Corbyn? Grim, very grim.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.

    Now it is biting them in the arse.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    If he voted for it three times why is he even eligible for deselection? CCHQ should step in.
    Amazing . He voted with the government whip 3 times , his issue is with no deal . A lot of support is being given even by Leave Tories but it’s unlikely to make much difference . I’d be shocked if he survives that vote of confidence .
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Jonathan said:

    I hope HYUFD you’re paid by the post for this spin. You’re prolific! Boris doesn’t deserve you.

    He is certainly dedicated.
    Yesterday's attempt to torture the data into saying what he wanted it to was more impressive, I feel.

    After all, yesterday, he had to go past the evidence that Jeremy Hunt was ahead of Boris Johnson as being a capable leader, being good in a crisis, having sound judgement, being less out of touch with ordinary people, and being more honest and a better representative for Britain on the world stage...

    (All of which we don't look for in a Prime Minister, obviously)

    Past the evidence that voters rated him as better in having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister (net -11 to Boris's -19)...

    That Hunt led Corbyn by a greater amount than Boris did on being a more capable Prime Minister...

    ... in order to find a hypothetical hypothetical somewhere in the bowels that PROVED the Blond Bumbler to be a far better choice than Hunt.

    Without even mentioning any of the things he'd glibly passed by to cherry-pick out what he needed.

    Personally, given that what tentative indications we do have seem to indicate that the Lib Dems would do better with Boris than Hunt in Number 10, I can't find it in myself to disagree too much.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089

    Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.

    Now it is biting them in the arse.
    Fully justified text? I despair of the Conservative Party.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Now it is biting them in the arse.

    Indeed. Lunatics taking over both asylums now.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    The dream of Brexit is in tatters. It now amounts to no more than the following: will Boris’s No Deal be sufficiently not-that-horrific to stave off Corbyn? Grim, very grim.

    Corbyn will not beat Boris whatever the Brexit outcome with Yougov today, indeed Corbyn cannot even beat the LDs
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.

    Now it is biting them in the arse.
    Trying to put some numbers to this.

    I believe there are 160,000 Conservative members.

    Spread over 650 constituencies that will be 246 members per constituency.

    Do Conservative members have to affiliate to a constituency party ? If not then there will be fewer per constituency.

    A Conservative stronghold such as Hertfordshire SW is likely to have more Conservative members than average.

    Gauke is saying that 50 members have signed the motion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.

    I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.

    The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.




    Agreed further extension screws the Tories.

    Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.

    If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.

    Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.

    Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.

    If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/what-would-it-take-labour-win-general-election-new
    Look, none of us have got any idea what will happen at the next GE. Relying on hypothetical polls, potentially 3 years out, with politics in such a state of flux is utterly pointless. Do you agree HYUFD?
    Well this site relies on polls, if you don't like what one shows move onto the next one
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Jonathan said:

    I hope HYUFD you’re paid by the post for this spin. You’re prolific! Boris doesn’t deserve you.

    He is certainly dedicated.
    Yesterday's attempt to torture the data into saying what he wanted it to was more impressive, I feel.

    After all, yesterday, he had to go past the evidence that Jeremy Hunt was ahead of Boris Johnson as being a capable leader, being good in a crisis, having sound judgement, being less out of touch with ordinary people, and being more honest and a better representative for Britain on the world stage...

    (All of which we don't look for in a Prime Minister, obviously)

    Past the evidence that voters rated him as better in having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister (net -11 to Boris's -19)...

    That Hunt led Corbyn by a greater amount than Boris did on being a more capable Prime Minister...

    ... in order to find a hypothetical hypothetical somewhere in the bowels that PROVED the Blond Bumbler to be a far better choice than Hunt.

    Without even mentioning any of the things he'd glibly passed by to cherry-pick out what he needed.

    Personally, given that what tentative indications we do have seem to indicate that the Lib Dems would do better with Boris than Hunt in Number 10, I can't find it in myself to disagree too much.
    But the Brexit Party do better with Hunt than Boris.

    Also the Brexit Party overtake the Tories if we do not Leave the EU by October 31st and only Boris is committed to that, Deal or No Deal
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    If he voted for it three times why is he even eligible for deselection? CCHQ should step in.
    Amazing . He voted with the government whip 3 times , his issue is with no deal . A lot of support is being given even by Leave Tories but it’s unlikely to make much difference . I’d be shocked if he survives that vote of confidence .
    Great news for the LibDems. The western half of the Home Counties is ideal territory for them - with every passing day it's looking more and more that there'll soon be several yellow patches on the map.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.

    I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.

    The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.




    Agreed further extension screws the Tories.

    Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.

    If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.

    Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.

    Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.

    If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/what-would-it-take-labour-win-general-election-new
    Look, none of us have got any idea what will happen at the next GE. Relying on hypothetical polls, potentially 3 years out, with politics in such a state of flux is utterly pointless. Do you agree HYUFD?
    Well this site relies on polls, if you don't like what one shows move onto the next one
    Polls are only part of the mix.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    Personally I would back Gauke and oppose a no confidence vote in him, he did at least vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even if he opposes No Deal.

    However I backed the successful vote of no confidence in Dominic Grieve and Philip Lee by their Associations and back attempts to no confidence Sam Gyimah too as they all voted against the Withdrawal Agreement and for EUref2 and they tried to force further extension and block No Deal too and are clearly attempting to Stop Brexit outright.

    They really are LDs, Gauke in my view is still a Tory even if one who wants clear blue water from the Brexit Party
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    I hope HYUFD you’re paid by the post for this spin. You’re prolific! Boris doesn’t deserve you.

    He is certainly dedicated.
    Yesterday's attempt to torture the data into saying what he wanted it to was more impressive, I feel.

    After all, yesterday, he had to go past the evidence that Jeremy Hunt was ahead of Boris Johnson as being a capable leader, being good in a crisis, having sound judgement, being less out of touch with ordinary people, and being more honest and a better representative for Britain on the world stage...

    (All of which we don't look for in a Prime Minister, obviously)

    Past the evidence that voters rated him as better in having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister (net -11 to Boris's -19)...

    That Hunt led Corbyn by a greater amount than Boris did on being a more capable Prime Minister...

    ... in order to find a hypothetical hypothetical somewhere in the bowels that PROVED the Blond Bumbler to be a far better choice than Hunt.

    Without even mentioning any of the things he'd glibly passed by to cherry-pick out what he needed.

    Personally, given that what tentative indications we do have seem to indicate that the Lib Dems would do better with Boris than Hunt in Number 10, I can't find it in myself to disagree too much.
    But the Brexit Party do better with Hunt than Boris.

    Also the Brexit Party overtake the Tories if we do not Leave the EU by October 31st and only Boris is committed to that, Deal or No Deal
    Mate, you keep looking over there at that. Don't mind us.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Dadge said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    If he voted for it three times why is he even eligible for deselection? CCHQ should step in.
    Amazing . He voted with the government whip 3 times , his issue is with no deal . A lot of support is being given even by Leave Tories but it’s unlikely to make much difference . I’d be shocked if he survives that vote of confidence .
    Great news for the LibDems. The western half of the Home Counties is ideal territory for them - with every passing day it's looking more and more that there'll soon be several yellow patches on the map.
    Agreed. It’s even possible that the seats of both Maidenhead and Windsor aren’t safe if the Tories carry on like this.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.

    I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.

    The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.




    Agreed further extension screws the Tories.

    Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.

    If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.

    Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.

    Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.

    If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/what-would-it-take-labour-win-general-election-new
    Look, none of us have got any idea what will happen at the next GE. Relying on hypothetical polls, potentially 3 years out, with politics in such a state of flux is utterly pointless. Do you agree HYUFD?
    Well this site relies on polls, if you don't like what one shows move onto the next one
    No, most of us refer to polls, you rely on them. However, I have to admit that I really enjoy your contributions to the site - please don't stop. The fanatical devotion to Bozo would make a good routine at the Edinburgh Fringe.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2019

    Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.

    Now it is biting them in the arse.
    Not something to feel smug about. Both parties have been taken over by members unrepresentative of their voters. The result being that in a month we'll have the two worse leaders in anyone's lifetime. Let's hope enough of the voters ignore the main parties and persuade these charlatans that they're not wanted
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.

    I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.

    The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.




    Agreed further extension screws the Tories.

    Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.

    If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.

    Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.

    Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.

    If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/what-would-it-take-labour-win-general-election-new
    Look, none of us have got any idea what will happen at the next GE. Relying on hypothetical polls, potentially 3 years out, with politics in such a state of flux is utterly pointless. Do you agree HYUFD?
    Well this site relies on polls, if you don't like what one shows move onto the next one
    If only some posters on this site actually moved on to the latest one...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2019

    Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.

    Now it is biting them in the arse.
    Trying to put some numbers to this.

    I believe there are 160,000 Conservative members.

    Spread over 650 constituencies that will be 246 members per constituency.

    Do Conservative members have to affiliate to a constituency party ? If not then there will be fewer per constituency.

    A Conservative stronghold such as Hertfordshire SW is likely to have more Conservative members than average.

    Gauke is saying that 50 members have signed the motion.
    Yes, all Conservative members belong to a constituency Association (or federation of multiple constituencies). I don't know the numbers but would guess that Herts SW would have around 700 to 1000 members. I'd be surprised if he loses, but I don't know the patch at all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Polling numbers from Morning Consult/538 post 2nd debate:

    Biden 31.5
    Sanders 17.3
    Harris 16.6
    Warren 14.4
    Buttigieg 4.8
    Booker 2.8
    Beto 2.2
    Castro 1.7
    Yang 1.2
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    I suspect it's probably equally true for both Wales and Scotland....
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Kick him upstairs... Lord wingnut of hokey cokey
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    Roger said:

    Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.

    Now it is biting them in the arse.
    Not something to feel smug about. Both parties have been taken over by members unrepresentative of their voters. The result being that in a month we'll have the two worse leaders in anyone's lifetime. Let's hope enough of the voters ignore the main parties and persuade these charlatans that they're not wanted
    By definition any kind of loon, crank or wonk who joins a political party is unrepresentative of 'normal' voters.

    However, the difference between us is that Leeds Central CLP would never look to dump Hilary Benn in the manner that Gauke's association are dumping on him.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,919

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    Different railway gauge!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    What are you talking about? We’d be the United Kingdom of Great Britain. i.e. the kingdom that occupies Great Britain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    Roger said:

    Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.

    Now it is biting them in the arse.
    Not something to feel smug about. Both parties have been taken over by members unrepresentative of their voters. The result being that in a month we'll have the two worse leaders in anyone's lifetime. Let's hope enough of the voters ignore the main parties and persuade these charlatans that they're not wanted
    By definition any kind of loon, crank or wonk who joins a political party is unrepresentative of 'normal' voters.

    However, the difference between us is that Leeds Central CLP would never look to dump Hilary Benn in the manner that Gauke's association are dumping on him.
    And of course the other difference is that both Tory and Labour MPs began determined not to be led by such inadequate leaders; Labour MPs tried but failed to remove theirs, whereas Tory MPs rolled over and submitted at the first sign of electoral panic.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    Different railway gauge!
    Hey, Sunil, did you catch my post about Rachel?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
    williamglenn looks for any excuse to end the UK. :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.

    Now it is biting them in the arse.
    Trying to put some numbers to this.

    I believe there are 160,000 Conservative members.

    Spread over 650 constituencies that will be 246 members per constituency.

    Do Conservative members have to affiliate to a constituency party ? If not then there will be fewer per constituency.

    A Conservative stronghold such as Hertfordshire SW is likely to have more Conservative members than average.

    Gauke is saying that 50 members have signed the motion.
    Yes, all Conservative members belong to a constituency Association (or federation of multiple constituencies). I don't know the numbers but would guess that Herts SW would have around 700 to 1000 members. I'd be surprised if he loses, but I don't know the patch at all.

    True for most, but I believe you are able to join centrally?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    With more £ to spend on the NHS....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,919

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
    In 1801, it was the Kingdoms of Great Britain and Ireland.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.

    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Great_Britain

    The Kingdom of Great Britain, officially called Great Britain, was a sovereign state in western Europe from 1 May 1707 to 1 January 1801. The state came into being following the Treaty of Union in 1706, ratified by the Acts of Union 1707, which united the kingdoms of England (which included Wales) and Scotland to form a single kingdom encompassing the whole island of Great Britain and its outlying islands, with the exception of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

    The Kingdom of Great Britain was replaced by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland on 1 January 1801 with the Acts of Union 1800.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    I think we might be the Kingdom of Great Britain so its only the United bit which Northern Ireland brings - ironically given that Northern Ireland is so rarely united.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
    You are both right, Ireland joined the Union in 1801 to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland (Northern Ireland only from 1922), almost a century after the Kingdom of Scotland joined the Kingdom of England (and Wales) to create the Kingdom of Britain in the 1707 Act of Union.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398

    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.

    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Great_Britain

    The Kingdom of Great Britain, officially called Great Britain, was a sovereign state in western Europe from 1 May 1707 to 1 January 1801. The state came into being following the Treaty of Union in 1706, ratified by the Acts of Union 1707, which united the kingdoms of England (which included Wales) and Scotland to form a single kingdom encompassing the whole island of Great Britain and its outlying islands, with the exception of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

    The Kingdom of Great Britain was replaced by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland on 1 January 1801 with the Acts of Union 1800.
    Every day is a school day on PB.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,919

    nico67 said:

    There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.

    The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.

    The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .

    No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .

    The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.

    And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.

    To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.

    The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.

    Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.

    Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
    We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
    Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
    Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
    Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
    The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    Different railway gauge!
    Hey, Sunil, did you catch my post about Rachel?
    I saw it just now - that Sunil's gone now, unfortunately, he's more of a Heidi fan :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.

    As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.

    And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.

    Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
    I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Great_Britain

    The Kingdom of Great Britain, officially called Great Britain, was a sovereign state in western Europe from 1 May 1707 to 1 January 1801. The state came into being following the Treaty of Union in 1706, ratified by the Acts of Union 1707, which united the kingdoms of England (which included Wales) and Scotland to form a single kingdom encompassing the whole island of Great Britain and its outlying islands, with the exception of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

    The Kingdom of Great Britain was replaced by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland on 1 January 1801 with the Acts of Union 1800.
    Every day is a school day on PB.
    Pub quiz trivia galore! I should have known that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    HYUFD said:

    Personally I would back Gauke and oppose a no confidence vote in him, he did at least vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even if he opposes No Deal.

    However I backed the successful vote of no confidence in Dominic Grieve and Philip Lee by their Associations and back attempts to no confidence Sam Gyimah too as they all voted against the Withdrawal Agreement and for EUref2 and they tried to force further extension and block No Deal too and are clearly attempting to Stop Brexit outright.

    They really are LDs, Gauke in my view is still a Tory even if one who wants clear blue water from the Brexit Party

    The mystery remains how and why you ever came to vote to stay in the EU. Some of us have occasional moments of insanity; what explains your fleeting moment of sanity?
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