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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harris and Warrnen now dominate the WH2020 Democratic betting

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harris and Warrnen now dominate the WH2020 Democratic betting following their performances in the first TV debates

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,144
    Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,520
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Proof that Brexit is pushing Scotland to independence

    Yet even as Curtice points out 64% of Scottish Leave voters would still vote No to independence in the latest polls and only 51% of Remain voting Scots would vote Yes even despite Brexit
    The headline numbers aren't the interesting ones, as they can wax and wane. The key is the probable permanent shift of some of those that wanted both unions for largely the same reason. Forced to make a choice, increasing numbers are choosing the European Union over the United Kingdom.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,927
    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,233
    Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,741
    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    She looks OK :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,188
    edited July 1

    Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.

    Indeed and both Biden and Sanders are still in front.

    Also the evidence is Biden and Sanders both beat Trump by a significantly bigger margin than Warren or Harris do, indeed the latest poll from Emerson has both Biden and Sanders leading Trump by 10%, Warren leading Trump by 6% and Harris leading Trump by just 4%

    http://emersonpolling.com/2019/06/24/june-national-poll-all-eyes-on-the-democratic-debates-biden-sanders-and-warren-separate-from-the-field/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,741
    DougSeal said:

    Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?

    Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,579
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    When the stench of the decaying corpse becomes such that even the party fanatics can't ignore it.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,233

    DougSeal said:

    Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?

    Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.
    Yes!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,188
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The only way the Tory Party is dead is if the Brexit Party replaces it as the main party of the right, however if Brexit is delivered and Labour refuse to back EUref2 there is more chance of the LDs replacing Labour
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,749
    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,188
    edited July 1
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Proof that Brexit is pushing Scotland to independence

    Yet even as Curtice points out 64% of Scottish Leave voters would still vote No to independence in the latest polls and only 51% of Remain voting Scots would vote Yes even despite Brexit
    The headline numbers aren't the interesting ones, as they can wax and wane. The key is the probable permanent shift of some of those that wanted both unions for largely the same reason. Forced to make a choice, increasing numbers are choosing the European Union over the United Kingdom.
    A few Scottish Remainers maybe but not a clear majority and Scottish Leavers remain strongly anti independence
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,520

    DougSeal said:

    Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?

    Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.
    As a presumed diehard Remainer, I am really just waiting for a good reason to support Leave.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,143

    DougSeal said:

    Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?

    Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.
    Diehard Remainers are those who expect Brexit to outlast Christmas.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,052

    Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.

    Biden is only in this race because people think he will win against Trump. He has no other discernible characteristics. He's also extremely dependent on black Democratic voters: a group that might - ummm... - start questioning whether he's all he's cracked up to be.

    When I look at this campaign, Sanders, Harris, Warren and Buttigieg - they all seem to be enjoying the campaign. O'Rourke? Not so much. Biden? Definitely not.

    If aura of invincibility starts to fade from Uncle Joe, then he's nothing. An elderly gaff prone cypher, with no ground game and no presence.

    I don't think he'll make it to Iowa.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,271
    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    Went for Davey after this mornings debate, whilst I liked Swinson I thought she was at times to shrill and would turn people off. Davey does need to look at his waistline image though either by clothes that cover it up a bit or lose weight.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,143
    FF43 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?

    Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.
    As a presumed diehard Remainer, I am really just waiting for a good reason to support Leave.
    Duty Free back on cross channel ferries? :)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,580
    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,144
    Incidentally, anecdata - I've had non-partisan work in Parliament twice in the last week, and chatted to people of various persuasions, including a senior Brexiteer, a May adviser, a Shadow Cabinet member and a ChangeUK guy - all of them people I personally respect as wanting to do their best for the country. They all described the Commons atmosphere at the moment as dreadful: "appalling" "horrible" "nighmarish".

    "But surely it must be extremely interesting?" I said to two of them. They looked at me uncomprehendingly. "No, it's simply grim."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,143

    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.
    I voted this morning. Davey for me, but happy with Swinson if she wins.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900
    Roger said:

    I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    So glad you're here to unpick the complex subliminals we would otherwise miss.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,416
    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    Yeah, but your difficulty is too many good candidates whereas.......
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,741
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?

    Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.
    Diehard Remainers are those who expect Brexit to outlast Christmas.
    "Ho ho ho! Now I have a Withdrawal Agreement!"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,741

    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.
    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition."
    - Boris, 2003.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,906
    HYUFD said:
    Mordaunt hates Johnson. Woman of great discernment.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900
    edited July 1

    Incidentally, anecdata - I've had non-partisan work in Parliament twice in the last week, and chatted to people of various persuasions, including a senior Brexiteer, a May adviser, a Shadow Cabinet member and a ChangeUK guy - all of them people I personally respect as wanting to do their best for the country. They all described the Commons atmosphere at the moment as dreadful: "appalling" "horrible" "nighmarish".

    "But surely it must be extremely interesting?" I said to two of them. They looked at me uncomprehendingly. "No, it's simply grim."

    But they are not necessarily more right than you. Grimness or otherwise is a question on of persepective.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,148
    edited July 1
    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:
    Mordaunt hates Johnson. Woman of great discernment.
    Or maybe just a woman?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,284
    Totally O/T but a bit of excellent customer service. Confusing message re Granddaughters desires re presents on becoming a teenager from her mother so Grannie and Grandpa bought a voucher from an online store called Pink-Boutique. As fellow PB's will understand we are light years away from understanding teenage fashion or from where it ought to be purchased. Anyway it was a different Pink at which she wanted to shop. So I rang the P-B this morning and a charming young lady assured me no problem, we'll refund your money, and while it hasn't yet appeared on my credit card I have an email telling me that it will.
    Must be something about the juxtaposition of the letters P & B.
    And when I checked on something in my memory the founder of the Boutique had received a prize for business development. from my wife and I's alma mater.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,148

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,372

    Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.

    Except that Warren (like Harris) had a significant bump in her electability measure. And Biden a significant decline.

    If the electability argument goes, so does Biden’s candidature.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,284
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:
    Mordaunt hates Johnson. Woman of great discernment.
    Or maybe just a woman?
    NSiT? It wasn't her who said that last time, was it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,906
    Warren vs Kamala in debate will be very interesting. Looking forward to that. If the Dem race boils down to these two I will be happy and relaxed. Trump is toast against either but IMO marginally more crisp and burnt if the junior senator from California gets the nod. The fact that she is my main bet has absolutely nothing to do with this assessment. It is 100% objective based on the evidence of my eyes and ears.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,271
    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    I’m not sure you realize how true that statement is. The first time I stood as a liberal candidate in 1983 at the count the Tory leader told me that if I ever wanted to be a councilor I would have to join the conservatives, I told him that I disagreed with their politics and I could never join. He said ‘oh we’re not political you just have to vote as the leader tells you’. In 1997:two years after winning control of the council,I was voted n the pub and asked the same person why they were trying to block everything we were trying to do he replied ‘the programmer is brilliant but if we let you implement it we’ll never retake the council’ in the end they wore us down and went on to implement 90% of our plans. In hindsight I supposed we actually won because power was never our objective n itself.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,148

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    What an utter delusional as well as meaningless statement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,052

    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.
    So you were the guy who voted for Alan Beith!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,103

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,271
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?

    Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.
    As a presumed diehard Remainer, I am really just waiting for a good reason to support Leave.
    Duty Free back on cross channel ferries? :)
    No much better to buy duty paid than dirty free in a country where fags booze and perfume are cheaper by far
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,741

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Serbia and Montenegro are next up to join, "by 2025".
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,089

    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.
    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003.
    Boris Johnson -the man who is wrong about everything....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,749


    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.

    The question for those wishing to rejoin the EU will be on what terms will our application to rejoin be considered. Even if we are forced to eat rats and scavenge for root vegetables (which we won't), there will be many who would rather eat dirt than use the Euro or join up to Schengen.

    OTOH, the EU could use our money but we may not wish to return simply as a contributor. A thoughtful EU might wish to come up with a set of terms - not so wish a WA as a JA - which would enable us to re-integrate economically but keep a degree of political distance. It would be a model for a multi-track EU and I fear it's beyond the EU's imagination.

    So much will depend on the "experience" of being outside the EU. After the novelty wears off, will it be the catalyst to creating a modern 21st century nation state or are we so limited as to see ourselves either as Caracas-on-Thames or Singapore-on-Thames?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,103

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,148
    stodge said:


    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.

    The question for those wishing to rejoin the EU will be on what terms will our application to rejoin be considered. Even if we are forced to eat rats and scavenge for root vegetables (which we won't), there will be many who would rather eat dirt than use the Euro or join up to Schengen.

    OTOH, the EU could use our money but we may not wish to return simply as a contributor. A thoughtful EU might wish to come up with a set of terms - not so wish a WA as a JA - which would enable us to re-integrate economically but keep a degree of political distance. It would be a model for a multi-track EU and I fear it's beyond the EU's imagination.

    So much will depend on the "experience" of being outside the EU. After the novelty wears off, will it be the catalyst to creating a modern 21st century nation state or are we so limited as to see ourselves either as Caracas-on-Thames or Singapore-on-Thames?
    The Brexit Party has ensured this is now a culture war. The EU is the progressive future and 'Brexit' is the regressive past. That is not going away quickly. Scottish Independence soon follows.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,133

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Scotland.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.
    I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,103

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.
    I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.
    Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,560
    Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,749
    nichomar said:

    I’m not sure you realize how true that statement is. The first time I stood as a liberal candidate in 1983 at the count the Tory leader told me that if I ever wanted to be a councilor I would have to join the conservatives, I told him that I disagreed with their politics and I could never join. He said ‘oh we’re not political you just have to vote as the leader tells you’. In 1997:two years after winning control of the council,I was voted n the pub and asked the same person why they were trying to block everything we were trying to do he replied ‘the programmer is brilliant but if we let you implement it we’ll never retake the council’ in the end they wore us down and went on to implement 90% of our plans. In hindsight I supposed we actually won because power was never our objective n itself.

    Indeed and my view has always been that while I would prefer a Liberal Democrat Government to enact the policies I believe would be rest for the country and for all its people, I could hardly complain if a Conservative or Labour Government implemented those self-same policies.

    There are of course those for whom office or power is all that matters and their sole purpose is to maintain themselves in authority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,372
    edited July 1
    Nigelb said:

    Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.

    Except that Warren (like Harris) had a significant bump in her electability measure. And Biden a significant decline.

    If the electability argument goes, so does Biden’s candidature.

    Details here:
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/elizabeth-warren-kamala-harris-electability-poll_n_5d18ca8ae4b03d61163d2743

    Of course there will be a backlash/reaction, so Harris’s odds in particular are a bit short right now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,103
    stodge said:

    nichomar said:

    I’m not sure you realize how true that statement is. The first time I stood as a liberal candidate in 1983 at the count the Tory leader told me that if I ever wanted to be a councilor I would have to join the conservatives, I told him that I disagreed with their politics and I could never join. He said ‘oh we’re not political you just have to vote as the leader tells you’. In 1997:two years after winning control of the council,I was voted n the pub and asked the same person why they were trying to block everything we were trying to do he replied ‘the programmer is brilliant but if we let you implement it we’ll never retake the council’ in the end they wore us down and went on to implement 90% of our plans. In hindsight I supposed we actually won because power was never our objective n itself.

    Indeed and my view has always been that while I would prefer a Liberal Democrat Government to enact the policies I believe would be rest for the country and for all its people, I could hardly complain if a Conservative or Labour Government implemented those self-same policies.

    There are of course those for whom office or power is all that matters and their sole purpose is to maintain themselves in authority.
    I am not sure you can tar Corbyn's Labour with that brush, they seem to be doing everything in their power to avoid office. Likewise the Dems.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,664

    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.
    I can't decide. I'm happy with either.

    Davey is articulate, experienced, heavy weight. Swinson is energetic and enthusiastic but she's not a Nicola or a Ruth. Davey for the head. Swinson for the heart.

    Who will appeal to more people? I suspect it's the heart. Who will do best against Johnson and Corbyn? I suspect it is the articulate experienced heavyweight. Can't decide.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,906
    IanB2 said:

    Or maybe just a woman?

    Well she sees right through him, this much is clear.

    I think she will keep her job at Defence.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Scotland.
    An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,148
    edited July 1

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Scotland.
    An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.
    Evidence please? Or are you just displaying Anglo arrogance?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.
    I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.
    Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?
    So you have nothing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,155
    Don't Don't

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,335

    Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?

    No
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,589
    rcs1000 said:

    Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.

    Biden is only in this race because people think he will win against Trump. He has no other discernible characteristics. He's also extremely dependent on black Democratic voters: a group that might - ummm... - start questioning whether he's all he's cracked up to be.

    When I look at this campaign, Sanders, Harris, Warren and Buttigieg - they all seem to be enjoying the campaign. O'Rourke? Not so much. Biden? Definitely not.

    If aura of invincibility starts to fade from Uncle Joe, then he's nothing. An elderly gaff prone cypher, with no ground game and no presence.

    I don't think he'll make it to Iowa.
    It's Sherrod Brown I feel most sorry for. All setup to be Generic White Male Dem from the Midwest Who Would Totally Beat Trump and then Biden decides to run and suck alllllll that oxygen out of the room.

    Also I had had a speculative punt on him and had been ramping him since 2016.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,052

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    That's an interesting question: which was the last country to join the EU whose GDP per capita
    was higher than the average?

    I'm guessing either Austria or Finland.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,252

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.
    I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.
    Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?
    Are you sure NI is richer than the south?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 906
    edited July 1
    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    When the stench of the decaying corpse becomes such that even the party fanatics can't ignore it.
    There will always be room for something on the centre right of wherever the Overton window is at the time, so there will always be room for what is now the Conservative party, even if it's eventually called something else.

    At the moment there is no home for the centrist right pragmatist, and no-one is at work at Butskellism either on the left or the right, but they will be one day, it's the law of civilized society. The Conservatives have made the great mistake of believing and doing something specific and ideological: the set of beliefs and actions which got us into the Common Market in the first place (in the teeth of Labour opposition), and the set of beliefs which is now taking us out of the EU again (in the teeth of Labour opposition). As for the party, it works best when it is dedicated to the honourable task of winning elections and not getting things into a mess in the first place.

    Sane Conservative (and Labour) governments from 1972 onwards, in the light of the EU's democratic deficiencies would have ruthlessly used the referendum as a device for both ensuring that we got out of europe what we wanted and at then same time secured cast iron democratic legitimacy what whatever outcome there was. In the long eye of history, this will be found to be the fatal error. It may not be repairable.

    At the moment there is no room for the centrist because of the vital issue of the day to stay where we are is deeply undemocratic, and to exit is, obviously, risky and dangerous.
    Open season for ideologues and fanatics.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,133

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.
    I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.
    Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?
    So you have nothing.
    Name a rich European country that isn’t in the single market.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,589

    Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?

    No.

    That said the market is so hard to predict because the polls that matter are early primary state polling but the polls that get publically done are national polls.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,900

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Scotland.
    An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.
    Evidence please? Or are you just displaying Anglo arrogance?
    So you still haven't identified that country, because there isn't one. Germany excepted the UK was the only country daft enough to be in the EU as a financial contributor.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,103
    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.
    I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.
    Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?
    Are you sure NI is richer than the south?
    Depends which side of the divide- which I guess undermines my statement.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,271

    stodge said:

    nichomar said:

    I’m not sure you realize how true that statement is. The first time I stood as a liberal candidate in 1983 at the count the Tory leader told me that if I ever wanted to be a councilor I would have to join the conservatives, I told him that I disagreed with their politics and I could never join. He said ‘oh we’re not political you just have to vote as the leader tells you’. In 1997:two years after winning control of the council,I was voted n the pub and asked the same person why they were trying to block everything we were trying to do he replied ‘the programmer is brilliant but if we let you implement it we’ll never retake the council’ in the end they wore us down and went on to implement 90% of our plans. In hindsight I supposed we actually won because power was never our objective n itself.

    Indeed and my view has always been that while I would prefer a Liberal Democrat Government to enact the policies I believe would be rest for the country and for all its people, I could hardly complain if a Conservative or Labour Government implemented those self-same policies.

    There are of course those for whom office or power is all that matters and their sole purpose is to maintain themselves in authority.
    I am not sure you can tar Corbyn's Labour with that brush, they seem to be doing everything in their power to avoid office. Likewise the Dems.
    So true about labour nationally you only have to listen to the true believers that purity is more important than actually achieving anything. Never experienced labour in local government but have the impression that machine politics is the norm so probably true. It’s the failure of the electoral system that even in lib dem majority councils people will join them because they want to ‘serve’ it’s a laudable objective but you should be able to have some chance of getting elected without hiding you’re politics. Multi member stv would go some way to eliminate this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,484
    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,372

    Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?

    No.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,230

    Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?

    How many children does she have?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,777
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.
    So you were the guy who voted for Alan Beith!
    But which of the losing candidates did OGH Snr support in the 1967 Liberal leadership election - Eric Lubbock or Emlyn Hooson?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,284

    Charles said:

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.
    I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.
    Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?
    Are you sure NI is richer than the south?
    Depends which side of the divide- which I guess undermines my statement.
    I suspect that the North WAS richer once upon a time, but I doubt it is now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,335

    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?

    What would drive that? I'm struggling to see the rationale (not that rationale is necessarily relevant when Trump's involved, I guess).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,589

    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?

    Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,484
    What are they smoking over there at the Emirates?

    £40 million for Zaha?

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/jul/01/arsenal-40m-approach-crystal-palace-wilfried-zaha
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,133

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Scotland.
    An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.
    Evidence please? Or are you just displaying Anglo arrogance?
    So you still haven't identified that country, because there isn't one. Germany excepted the UK was the only country daft enough to be in the EU as a financial contributor.
    Other net contributors are France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Ireland, but when you consider how much bang for their buck they get compared with duplicating the EU's functions at the national level, it's a good deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,335

    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered
    What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.
    Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.
    There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.

    People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
    No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.
    Source?
    Country?
    Scotland.
    An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.
    Evidence please? Or are you just displaying Anglo arrogance?
    So you still haven't identified that country, because there isn't one. Germany excepted the UK was the only country daft enough to be in the EU as a financial contributor.
    France is a bigger net contributor than the UK and Italy is not far behind.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,484
    edited July 1

    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?

    What would drive that? I'm struggling to see the rationale (not that rationale is necessarily relevant when Trump's involved, I guess).
    Not sure, I was looking at Robert's earlier thread and trying to assess the odds on the GOP winning in 2020 without Trump and it got me thinking.

    Perhaps the tipping point might be if Mueller's evidence to Congress is awful for Trump.

    Just imagine if Mueller absolutely tears Trump a new one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,484
    Alistair said:

    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?

    Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.
    Perhaps I'm over estimating the power of Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 480
    Let's send some gunboats immediately!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,484
    Yes a reminder of the UK's shameful role in the global drugs war.

    #SayNoToDrugs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,188
    edited July 1
    kinabalu said:

    Warren vs Kamala in debate will be very interesting. Looking forward to that. If the Dem race boils down to these two I will be happy and relaxed. Trump is toast against either but IMO marginally more crisp and burnt if the junior senator from California gets the nod. The fact that she is my main bet has absolutely nothing to do with this assessment. It is 100% objective based on the evidence of my eyes and ears.

    If it is Warren v Harris Trump will be laughing all the way to re election, he probably wins the popular vote against either as well as likely increasing his Electoral College margin.

    If the Democrats really think two left liberal coastal elitists stand a better chance of beating Trump in the Electoral College than a charismatic centrist from rustbelt Pennsylvania like Joe Biden then they deserve to lose in 2020
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,589

    Alistair said:

    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?

    Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.
    Perhaps I'm over estimating the power of Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress.
    Remember this acronym: IOIYAR
    "Its Okay If You Are a Republican"

    The only thing they care about is packing the Federal courts with activists judges. Turning against Trump would blow up that strategy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    edited July 1
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:
    Mordaunt hates Johnson. Woman of great discernment.
    I picked up a freesheet this morning which seemed determined to tell their readers that Boris had assaulted his first wife and her best friend. The paper seemed to be holding back details though their informant-the friend who had been assaulted-clearly wanted to get the information out. Could be tittle tattle or could be the sword of Damacles. These days that sort of thing can spell instant death to a candidate so don't spend your winnings yet.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,564
    kjohnw said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....
    The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered cancelled.
    Just corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,623
    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.

    When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.

    Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).

    I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
    Me neither, but it's a great difficult decision to have.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,520
    The problem with the EU going away as an issue is the same three year old Brexit contradiction.

    There is no tolerable Brexit outcome for the UK as long as everyone else stays in the EU, except a close relationship, which will be on the EU's terms. The British won't be happy standing by their metaphorical fax machines waiting for the latest instruction from Brussels. The UK isn't Norway, that is willing to outsource a large part of its foreign and economic policy to third parties.

    On the other hand, the option that is demonstrably better for UK interests is the one that has been rejected in a democratic vote.

    Other options are difficult, time consuming, uncertain and will damage vested interests.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,188

    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?

    Close to zero given he easily wins the GOP primaries again.

    Kasich may run on a centrist third party ticket though with Hickenlooper
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,372

    Alistair said:

    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?

    Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.
    Perhaps I'm over estimating the power of Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress.
    Rather, underestimating the thrall which has captured the party.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,484
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.

    In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?

    Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.
    Perhaps I'm over estimating the power of Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress.
    Remember this acronym: IOIYAR
    "Its Okay If You Are a Republican"

    The only thing they care about is packing the Federal courts with activists judges. Turning against Trump would blow up that strategy.
    Thanks.
This discussion has been closed.